Betting4Fun said:As this is the 1st time i see you do it i will share my opinion
however out of respect to quantumleap ,this is not the right place
to do so.
Cork is not performing so well on the road this season.
Out of 13 road games 8 ended tied and 2 losses.
The home team is at the bottom but last they played
there it ended 0-0 about 5 months ago
I don't believe he meant disrespect. After all, I solicited suggestions and he simply relayed one from Hooligans which I much appreciated. It is my responsibility from that point to decide whether it is a good bet or not.
quantumleap said:Goal in the 90th minute!!!!!!
arty:
At least I got the draw instead of a loss.
Just got back from lunch and couldn't be much happier. I f*ed up my play and played twice as much as I intended on the ML. BTW, did you see my post in RollTide re making -1 lines? I know you said you had -1.5
fhmesq44 said:
Where was this regarding me saying I had -1.5?
That's a good formula esq. You make 2 bets. It's very similar to when I make a bet on a team not to lose. I make a bet on the team's victory and another one on the draw. The nice thing about making separate bets is that you can bet a little more or a little less on the draw depending upon how much probability you think they will draw. For example, if I'm going to bet a +600 team to win and draw I will put a little more on the draw than a +250 team. I figure there is a higher chance of the +600 team to draw than a +250 team.
You could do the same with your 2-bet system. You can put a little more or a little less on each side of your bets depending on how probable you will think each bet will occur.
Thanks for posting that. I'll have to incorporate it into my betting strategy.
quantumleap said:
Not on this game, I recall you mentioning not liking -1.5 in the past.
Correct, very similar to that strategy and you can adjust this formula as well to potentially win some money on a 1 goal win instead of a straight push. Or, you could set it up so that you would lose a little on a 1 goal win, but win more on a larger win, while still risking the same total amount if the team doesn't win at all.
if you want the spreadsheet with the formulas, let me know. There are actually 3 formulas to spit out all the numbers and the spreadsheet makes it easier to get the numbers correct.
Going with a similar theme as I've used in the past. That being betting against teams that have missing players.
England - Conference
York +110 over St. Albans several books 6 units
York is 5-2 on the road, losing 1 of those matches to league-leader Oxford. St. Albans has lost 6 out of their last 8 and will be missing many players. York lost their most recent game against Cambridge despite playing well so they will want to bounce-back here.
Weymouth -200 over Southport several books 6 units
Weymouth have won their last 4 at home. Southport are missing 7 players. Weymouth are 3rd in the league while Southport is second from bottom.
England - Conference
York +110 over St. Albans several books 6 units
York is 5-2 on the road, losing 1 of those matches to league-leader Oxford. St. Albans has lost 6 out of their last 8 and will be missing many players. York lost their most recent game against Cambridge despite playing well so they will want to bounce-back here.
Weymouth -200 over Southport several books 6 units
Weymouth have won their last 4 at home. Southport are missing 7 players. Weymouth are 3rd in the league while Southport is second from bottom.
Republic of Ireland, Eirecom Premier League
Sligo -143 over Waterford Expekt 6 units
Sometimes I kick myself because I get so busy that I forget certain trends. Waterford away is one of them. Waterford promptly lost 9 straight road matches until winning one last month against St. Pat's and then lost their next one. I had put in my notes to watch for Waterford on the road but didn't read my notes.
Now some of the odds for Waterford's away matches weren't very good, especially against the better teams. However, these odds are hard to pass up for a team that quits on the road. Sligo has won 6 out of their last 8 home matches.
Sligo -143 over Waterford Expekt 6 units
Sometimes I kick myself because I get so busy that I forget certain trends. Waterford away is one of them. Waterford promptly lost 9 straight road matches until winning one last month against St. Pat's and then lost their next one. I had put in my notes to watch for Waterford on the road but didn't read my notes.
Now some of the odds for Waterford's away matches weren't very good, especially against the better teams. However, these odds are hard to pass up for a team that quits on the road. Sligo has won 6 out of their last 8 home matches.
