Pre-season college football thread

Thanks Reb. I wasn't aware of very many books that had lines out on college football games except for a few that had the early games.
I am a member at Betroyal but you should be able to view them without being a member. Just click on view lines at the left. Then on the next screen select NCAA under the football tab.
I will have to check out carib to see their lines.

 

[100KbyXMAS]

Earlier 5dimes had every game from Aug 28 to Labor Day. Now it stops at the Fri Sep 3.

 

[NYReb]

I went back to BetRoyal and this time found the lines, and indeed Miami is -2, as Omaha said. Then I went back to Carib and they had removed the FSU-Miami game from the board. So I have no idea what that's all about.

Omaha, what's your experience of BetRoyal? Do they pay promptly?

 

Reb,

I haven't used them for that long and haven't tried to collect from them yet. I love to have them as one of my outs. They often have lines quite different from the other bigger more popular books such as Olympic, Pinnacle, etc that I use. They are almost always a good book to look for underdogs.

 

[NYReb]

I've noticed that about them, but I've never used them. If they pay promptly, I'd like an account.

Has anyone had experience with BetRoyal?

 

[muffinman]

Reb,
Good to hear from you my friend. How was your summer?
I am really looking forward to this FSU Miami game. I too am leaning towards FSU. I think this is the year that they finally get past the Miami curse.
To me the winner of this game will be the winner of the ACC.
I also think USC is very capable of pounding V-Tech. Actually, I think they are very capable of POUNDING just about every team (except a limited few) in D1 this year. So I am leaning towards SC minus the points.
I am psyched that football is back. That F--kin Baseball is for the birds.

 

[NYReb]

Great to see you, muffin. It's nice to find that old friends are still here. Hope you are doing great, buddy.

I am really excited about the FSU-Miami game. What a great way to start the season! It should be a super game, a rocking and socking type of game. Yes, I'm still leaning towards FSU. Just think that something special might happen to this team this year.

That USC/VT game is fascinating. I know that USC is capable of blowing away anyone, but they are going from coast to coast to play what will basically be a home game for VT. VT has a senior QB who will keep them competitive, and they still have lots of talent who when motivated can be very good. What was it they beat Miami last year...31-6 or something? They are capable of such things, and I think they will be very motivated. Then again, they could get blown away. A very interesting game to me.

The next Thursday we have A&M-Utah and Northwestern-TCU. Why is Utah favored 9 points over A&M? Can someone answer this? Have the Utahs of the world caught up with the Big 12 already? If I were an A&M coach or player, I'd feel that my manhood was insulted. I am looking to see how these two teams actually compare to each other on the playing field.

Northwestern is a tempting play, getting 8 whole points against a C-USA/Mountain West team. They are a senior laden squad with some talent. Yet are they really as athletic as these TCU guys? TCU definitely has more playmakers. You know, this could be one of those games where the 'public' sees a great upset in the making, only to find their boys from the Midwest thrashed by a strong TCU program that wasn't being respected enough. These guys are strong! They got a lineman who benches 635! Ouch!

There are several fascinating games for the following Saturday: How about Central Florida-Wisconsin. I love games like this. Central Florida is one of those half-unknown, mystery-like teams that no one knows much about, but when they go to places like Wisconsin they like to win. Interesting matchup in my eyes.

Michigan St-Rutgers. Here's a good one. Let's see, MSU is a 9-point favorite? Going into a Rutgers that has recruited and been coached well, and who would just love to make a statement. This is their chance? Will MSU be overconfident? Better not be. They almost lost to this team last year at home.

Oregon State-LSU. I love this game. Oregon St and all those points against a conservative LSU team starting out with a brand new quarterback. I'm not looking for any upset here, LSU is strong, but this game could be much closer than anyone (other than Oregon St) expects.

Tulane-Miss St. I guess this is the 'Croom Bowl.' That man has sure gotten some recognition, and he probably deserves it. He is a man of great integrity, which is just what was needed for a teetering, faltering program. MSU has surprising good talent. Seriously, I am a recruiting nut, and I know who they've got to work with. Main weakness will be QB and WRs, so the passing game might be wobbly. Anyone with any ideas about this game? MSU has the better talent and probably the better coach, but is the system still too new, is Omarr Conner, a great talent-to-be, ready for his first snap as a college QB? These are questions to be answered, but I don't have the answers.

Notre Dame-BYU. This game is so boring to me I can't even think of anything interesting to say about it. I guess there are people out there really into these teams, I just don't happen to be among them. Nothing personal to anyone, I'm just more of a Southeast and East Coast kind of guy. Any enlightenment on this game from anyone who knows these teams would be extremely welcome.

Let me hear from some of you guys; this thread is moving too slowly.

More later.

 

[muffinman]

Reb,
I agree 100% with that Oregon state play. I think they keep it close. LSU will be playing VERY conservative, and OSU has absolutely nothing to lose, with everything to gain. They have been dreaming about this game since the roses started flying last Jan. 4th. LSU is going to have a Nasty-ASS Def. this year, but they are going to do nothing but run-run-run on opening day. I think they win this one 21-6.

I too think this thread is moving way too slow. I just think that most cappers are too busy prepping for the season. They need to get their asses to the Rx. Give it another couple of days. People will start posting early next week.

Have a good weekend guys, I'll check back in on Mon.

 

[ElIguana]

I guess Utah is favored by 9 over A&M because A&M's defense was HORRIBLE last season....horrible enough to overshadow a talented young QB and a decent offense that will undoubtedly show improvement in their 2nd year under coach Franchione. Game looks like a good value.

I also agree with you guys about LSU. They will win, but probably not by a lot unless the defense scores more than once.

I am staying away from USC/VT. Reb, you're right that VT is capable of scoring a lot, but I made $$ late in the season betting on USC to cover some huge (21+ point) spreads, and they consistently did.

 

[HornVet]

Utah came into Kyle field last year and promptly went into halftime down 21-0. They only lost 28-26. Key factors included their best wideout not playing. They also fumbled 9 times although they only lost three of them. They outgained A&M and killed them in TOP if I remember correctly. A&M of course played an ugly game as well.

I'm not sure A&M being in the big twelve will be enough. McNeal has been a talented young QB for awhile now and aside from one game against OU he hasn't really done jack. He is very inconsitent and makes very ugly decisions at times.

A&M has had a putrid OL which hasn't helped anyone and their talent level is down as well. Fran RS many freshman last year and I tend to think if they were good enough they would have played. Especially on the defensive side where the Wrecking Crew set many marks for futility. Maybe these guys will be world beaters but it's hard to count on that. Certainly these RS Frosh will have likely improved from last year regardless. However it is an early season game and regardless of their talent they will be GREEN.

Offseason/off field trouble have run rampant as maybe 15 or so players have either transferred, had legal trouble, or been given the boot. Maybe Fran did a little housecleaning and got the bad attitudes out. Maybe he isn't in as much control as people wish he was.

Utah is a solid team and they are at home. A&M isn't a solid team and they have been poor at home, but have been especially bad away from Kyle field. UTAH -9 doesn't seem to be a huge stretch to me at this time. Of course time will tell. I think Utah will have a talent advantage in this game. They will have homefield. They will be pumped on Thursday night. Of course those might be the best reason for a contrarian bet, but time will tell.

 

[BigDaddyNole]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by LSUpete:
Bob Stoops is a cunt.

He will pile it on this team, and you can bet on that. They'll have a 35 point lead midway throught he second quarter. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

BUHAHAHA ... man, every time I read through this thread I have to admit this single post cracks me up!!! Not that Stoops hasn't done an excellent job in Norman ... believe me, I still can't believe how bad his D shut us down the year we played them for the title (seems like many moons ago

)
Curious to see how the Sooners will do with losing Li'l Stoops and some assistants over the last couple years --- it takes its toll ... believe me
I guess it's just his smug attitude that makes me laugh ... especially when you saw the look on his face after K-State spanked their ass last year

regardless, they WILL be a factor this season ... no revelation there

 

[NYReb]

Muffin and El Iguana, nice points.

Dan, great write-up. You make a great case for Utah.

BigDaddy, I bet you haven't liked Bob Stoops since he was DC at Florida under Spurrier. Imagine, knowing what we know now, the two of them on each side of the same team. No wonder they were so good.

I'm wondering if I'm underrating USC again. I am just wondering how much the line is jacked up because of USC just being USC, defending champ and all, while not much is expected of VT this season. I saw VT wipe out Miami last year, and probably most everyone else did as well. Miami weren't slouches, so the Hokies are capable of playing a very good game. I don't think their program has gone downhill overnight. Surely we can count on them being well coached. Looking over recruiting the last 5 years, USC has a big advantage talent-wise, but Beamer has recruited better than many people might expect. One stat to keep in mind is that Frank Beamer is 2-22 against top 10 teams. That's not a great record. So the question is, how much is VT's success is related to simply playing in the Big East? There are so many factors, especially when the game might come down to a field goal to decide whether USC wins by 16 or 19.

I agree totally with Edward. Best play is the under, assuming the line is reasonable. USC could easily win by about the same score that they beat Auburn last year.

 

[NYReb]

Thoughts on 9/4 intracity rival -- Houston -2.5

Houston is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS since 1987 in this game. Favorite is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games of this series. Rice only 2-5-1 ATS in home openers since '96. A lot of stats supporting the Cougars if you believe in trends. Then again, Rice has 15 starters back and they can score. Best bet on this one might be the over, just depends on how high they put the number.

Anyone in Houston or the area who knows both teams have any thoughts about this game?

 

[muffinman]

Reb,
Ya, V-tech was tough at times last year, but look at how poorly they looked down the stretch. They lost like 4 in a row SU and 5 ATS. Then they got into a shoot-out with Cal in their bowl game...very "un-beamerish."
I think this is a different team than what we have been use to the past 7-8 years. I also think the lose of Kevin Jones is a BIG one. It is not like losing Lee Suggs, and having Jones to fall back on. Whoever gets the nod on Sat. will be very GREEN, and will be facing one of the quickest most talented Defenses in the country.
I love USC.
I also remember this time last year, and I took the points with Auburn vs. USC. and Sc spanked them and covered easy. So don't let the big name fool ya. V-tech is in for a WHOPPIN'.....

 

[nightmare]

Bob stoops may be a cunt but he is still a great coach that has a UF upbringing. I like the way he coaches. His team should do well I just hate the way the pollsters suck his nuts every year. Him and pete Carrol!

 

[NYReb]

Thoughts of the day.

I was wondering how some of you feel about yourselves as gamblers. I think I'm going to write a book about gambling someday. Not the stats and systems and that kind of stuff, but the human side -- the personal experience of the gambler.

I don't like the idea of gambling being a 'problem' or a 'disease.' OK, when you're losing money consistently, then it's definitely a problem. If you see you can't win at it consistently, then give it up, don't ruin your life trying to be what you're not.

And I have little sympathy for these guys who gamble away the mortgage or junior's college funds. When it reaches that point, it's definitely a disease, and you need help. Avoid denial at all costs.

When it comes to guys who enjoy the sports and gamble for the fun of the action and hoping to pick up a few dollars on the side, well, I feel absolutely fine about that. Gambling in itself is a sport. In some places, England and Australia for example, you just go place your bets and no one things anything of it. In America there's a certain morality associated with gambling, and I don't buy it.

I like to think of gambling as a profitable hobby and vocation. For some, it's an honorable profession. Years ago I was giving a weekend workshop in Miami on elevated lifestyles, and one guy stood up to ask a question. I asked him what he did for a living, and he replied that he was a professional gambler.

Suddenly the room was energized with attention and respect. Everyone was immediately interested in him. Over the weekend, he was one of the more popular people in the workshop, and people kept moving to talk with him during breaks. It was right before the Super Bowl, so we asked him who to take in the Super Bowl, and he said, 'Take the under.' This wasn't very interesting to some people, some thought he was saying to take the underdog, but I placed a nice wager on the under. Turned out to be one of the most boring, and low-scoring, Super Bowls I've ever seen.

So, an honorable profession.

Hell, with the fun of being so absorbed in the games, gambling can be enjoyable just to break even. To gamble and not lose is a wonderful thing. To gamble and make money is bliss.

I certainly would never advise or encourage anyone to gamble. We all know that most people lose in the long run. But since we're actually here doing it, then lets do what we're doing with respect and honor. And lets bring home some money to the lady of the house now and then

Anyway, avoid losing money. If it happens too often, or if we can't properly budget and lose inappropriate sums, then drop it before it ruins your life.

If we can enjoy it and make money on the side, then it's one of the most enjoyable hobbies there is. I enjoy sharing it, and all our thoughts on this or any other subject, with you guys on this site.

Take care for now.

 

[NYReb]

Guys, I was going to post this on Thursday when I usually post my college football thread, but this line is dropping like an express elevator.

I list my plays as I played them, not as the current line. So here's what I did:

7* USC/VT under 54

5* Teaser: VT +25, under 61.
I can't see how this game would exceed either o these numbers.

Man, I just think the defenses are going to be predominant on both sides in this game. I don't see a whole lot of scoring. And I can't imagine USC winning by over 25.

Anyway, these plays still have value, but if you want them don't wait until later. This line will go down, not up.

If you're not familiar with my plays, a 5* is a regular play, a 7* is something special, and a 10* is a GOW type play. I usually have 1-3 15* GOY type plays during the season, but we won't worry about anything like that right now.

Later.

 

[muffinman]

I'll buy the book!!!!!

Great write-up. I enjoy it when people see gambling for what it truely is, a hobby. And if it can be a lucrative hobby, than AWESOME. But if it becomes more than a hobby, and too consuming, than it is a disease. I have certainly seen both sides of the coin.

 

[ElIguana]

A game is definitely 100 times more interesting when you have $$ on it! I'm sure you could write a book on the psychology and lifestyle of wagering, I'll buy a copy.

The trap most recreational gamblers fall into is making bets on too many games just for the excitement of it and for the wrong reasons (i.e. a "gut feeling" instead of stats). I guess we all have to do it a few times before we wise up.

Thanks for the picks, Reb. The only way I'll put anything on the BCA game is if Reb makes it a 10* pick! USC is a scoring machine, but it is very early in the season....I'm staying away. GL

 

[ElIguana]

Hey Dudes, did you see Wilhelm's post on Miami Hurricanes? FSU defense is getting no respect at all early in the season. See Wilhelm's post for the full article.