Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

Search

Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2012
Messages
22,597
Tokens
Notes on today's games:

BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE (at Wembley Stadium, London)
Game not on TV! Gus Bradley 13-22-1 vs. spread since 2013 and Jags 0-2 SU/ATS in London all time. But, the dog is on a 7-1-1 ATS run in Buffalo games. Rex Ryan is 9-2 ATS in his last 11 games off one loss & London favorites with the better record are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS

CLEVELAND at ST. LOUIS
Browns 7-2-1 as road dog for Pettine since last season. Browns also 9-1-1 ATS in games off a loss (7-0 ATS as a dog off loss) under Mike Pettine. Browns have covered 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5.
Rams have the worst offensive yards per game in league (297).Rams 0-4 ATS as Home favs the past 2 years (lost all 4 games SU) and 0-12 ATS as favs off 2 road games & facing <.500 opponent.

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
Landry Jones likely to start for Pitt. Chiefs have lost & failed to cover five straight (-35 pts ATS) since opener vs. Houston. Steelers 4-0-1 ATS last five away. Tomlin is 7-1 ATS on the road, off a SU win. KC 3-0 ATS the last three games as a host in this series, and I can tell you Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to play well at this stadium.

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND
Jets have covered four straight and five of last six vs. Belichick. Pats averaging 36.4 ppg in their last 8 games. Jets +39½ points ATS on road this, but Pats 8-0 ATS hosts vs opponents off 2 wins. New England has never covered the spread against the Jets (0-5) when they are at home as an undefeated team. The Jets have lost eight of the past nine to New England. The Patriots have scored an AFC-high 183 points.

HOUSTON at MIAMI
Dolphins 9-17 last 26 as chalk, 2-8 last 10 as home chalk. Texans are 2-10
ATS in Oct off a SU/ATS non-division win. Texans 9-1 ATS in games after facing the Jaguars. Dolphins as home favorite: 12-40 ATS since 2003


MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Lions now 2-7 ATS last eight reg.-season games dating to late 2014.
Minny also 5-2 ATS last seven away but Bridgewater has only 1 SU win on the road as an NFL starter (3 tds 2 INTs on the year). Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its next game after allowing 10 or fewer points.

ATLANTA at TENNESSEE
Titans are 3-13-1 last 17 at home and just 3-18 SU under Whiz. Atlanta lost last 2 ATS but on 11-5 ATS run. 5-1 teams in Game Seven, off their first loss of the season, are just 2-6 ATS when favored off a favorite loss. Atlanta 8-0 ATS in Oct off upset loss vs a losing team.

TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON
Redskins have covered last 2 at home but 3-6 ATS last nine as chalk. Tampa is 11-0 as a road dog off after scoring 27+pts. Gruden has 1-7 ATS record vs <.500 opponents and is a 1-4 ATS as a favorite. Redskins are 0-6 ATS at home off back-to-back away games. Redskins as a favorite: 53-84-3 ATS

NEW ORLEANS at INDIANAPOLIS
Saints 2-5-1 last 8 as road dog but have covered 3 of last 4 ATS. Pagano
is 11-2 ATS off a loss, & Indy is 7-1 ATS vs an opponent off a DD win as a dog. Colts have been outgained in every game this year and are 2-6 SU and ATS the last eight games in this series. Luck in games off a loss in his NFL career is 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
Chargers are only 4-13 vs. the spread last 17 overall & 1-7 ATS last 8 at Qualcomm. Raiders have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Oakland is 12-2 ATS as a division road dog off SU division loss, & 9-3 ATS vs San Diego and note SD are 1-5 ATS at home in this series. Series underdog has covered 11 of last 13

DALLAS at NY GIANTS
Dallas 1-4 vs. line in 2015 but the underdog in Dallas games has covered 69% of the time (59-27 ATS since 2010). Matt Cassel is 22-12 ATS career in away games, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points.

PHILADELPHIA at CAROLINA
DeMarco Murray off his first 100 yard game this season. Kelly 3-6 ATS last nine since late 2014. But, Philly is 8-1 ATS as a road dog versus non-division opponents off a SU underdog win. And, dog run the dog is 9-1 ATS in Philly games.
Teams favored the week after playing Seattle: 7-18-3 ATS. Carolina is 0-5 ATS as chalk before a MNF game and 2-7 SU/ATS in franchise history before MNF.
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Winner thurs with Seattle -6'

corrected record
32-22-1 +932

///

Sunday Early:

Buffalo -3' +106 (@ Jax) London
The Buffs have been playing competetively against better competition. EJ Manuel is the first of three bench(ed) QBs taking their team's reigns today. He has something to prove against a weak Jax Defense.
 

Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2012
Messages
22,597
Tokens
Week 7 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants
(1-3-1 Last Week, 18-10-2 ATS YTD)
1NY Jets +9By 854*
2Atlanta -4.5By 779
3St. Louis -5.5By 571
4Carolina -3By 470
5Detroit +2.5By 431
*SuperContest record
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Add:

Detroit +1' +107 (vs Minny)
Minny got the first one 26-16 in Minny. Detroit's turn. Peterson has been downgraded to questionable (line value loss from +2' last night) and Bridgewater is in a sophomore slump with only 4 TDs and 5 turnovers in 5 NFL games. That's pretty crap production in today's NFL. So where will the Viking offense come from?
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Add:

Pittsburgh +3 +100 (@ KCy)
The second bench QB to take the field today is Landry Jones. Did anyone else notice the difference in the offense last week when Vick went out and Jones took the field? All of a sudden, one of the best receivers in the game, Antonio Brown, who had been all but hibernating with Vick at the controls, came alive again. Martavious Bryant had an 88 yarder for a TD. In three starts Michael Vick had 2 TDs and 1 pick. Landry Jones did better than that in three quarters. Look for an improved Steeler offense to join a tough Steel D and come out of Kansas City with a SU win today.
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Almost forgot.

Since 2001, Week 7:

62 Home Favs
65 Road Dogs
30 Home Dogs
31 Road Favorites

Pretty damned even for Week 7.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2006
Messages
24,884
Tokens
The sting of the Miami London loss was just enough to keep me off JAX. Damn. Apparently the Bills never got to London and look as though they're golfers in a Geico commercial up against a kracken, Bruce :)

3-3 yesterday, only mugged twice. The following are interesting trends and matchup memories in today's series:

CLE lost the last game vs STL in 2011 by 13-12 on a bad snap when in chipshot range at game's end. The Browns are 1-7 ATS on the Road if they won their previous Road game SU since 2010.

KC, in desperate need of a Win is 2-19 ATS since 2007 as a Home Fav between 1-6.5 points. PIT has won 2 straight without a QB.

Seems like a low line in NE but the Pats last 3 Home games vs NYJ were all Wins by 3 points or less.

ATL is 23-6 ATS since 2004 after a Loss to a Division foe. TEN has lost 8 straight at Home and the Books are stuck with a lot of ATL -3.

WAS is 1-6 SU+ATS at Home when trying to Win a 3rd straight Home game since 2006.

On a Sunday night in 2011 Curtis Painter led the Colts into NOR seeking revenge for a 2009 Superbowl beating. There was no revenge. Instead there was another beating, 62-7!!! INDY is 17-3 ATS at Home when the Total is 45 or higher.

DAL is 8-1 ATS since 1990 on the Road vs the Division after a Loss by 14 or more points.
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Tennessee +5' -103 (vs Atl)
Mariotta's out. You would think that this is a bad thing. Since his Week 1 showdown with Jamis Winston, Mariota has 5 TDs and 9 turnovers. Mettenberger will be an upgrade. And it may surprise you that ahead of the Jets, Denver, and Seattle, the team who has allowed the fewest passing yards is Tennessee. Sandwiched between two Divisional games, Atlanta could get a sourmash surprise in the land of Jack Daniels.
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Add:

New Orleans +5 -107 (@ Indy)
Indy still licking their wounds from the Pats loss. New Orleans quietly getting it together. Dome to dome. No problemo.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2006
Messages
24,884
Tokens
Stupid NFL probably denying most of its viewers the most entertaining game of the day.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2006
Messages
24,884
Tokens
Bryant shanks FG 20 yards to the right to keep game off 6. MIN takes safety to kill the 45 #feedthebookies
 
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
47,824
Tokens
Add:

Philly +3 -113 (@ Carolina)
6-2 straight up. That's Chip Kelly in spotlight games including a 45-21 beating of Carolina last year on Week 10 on Sunday night just like this. Will Carolina be motivated for revenge? Sure. But Philly needs the game more. And Philly has been playing better teams.

Here's the lowdown.

When Cam Newton is sacked 5 or more times he is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. When Cam Newton rushes fewer that 4 times he is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS.

On the flip side, when he rushes 10 or more times in a game, he is 13-3-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (yes Carolina tied Cincy 37-37 last year).

So Philly needs to contain Cam. And get to him too. I think they will.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,115,863
Messages
13,527,548
Members
100,333
Latest member
alcatraz
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com