Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

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Earlier this year, I had the Rockies on the road at San Diego for the first five innings. It was a big bet for me...Rockies were dogs, were playing well and I liked the matchup a lot.

Colorado was up 5-0 after the top half of the fifth inning, and the game was called because the rain started coming down. In San fucking Diego...where it *might* rain once a year. Last year, I had the Orioles over the Yankees for 1st 5. Baltimore was at home and ahead in the bottom of the 5th, but the game was called before the fifth was finished because of rain. Problem was, 1st five bets are not official until the whole five innings are complete...so my ticket was graded as a rain out and I didn't win. Even though I had already won the fucking bet. I nearly jumped over the counter at Planet Hollywood and started choking the clerk.

Like you said, they'll call the game when you're winning but will wait it out all day long when you're losing.

Jesus Christ that some brutal beats. Everybody tells me the bad beats even themselves out with some win gifts throughout the year....I'm not sure about that.

I do remember that San Diego rain out.
 

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Hmmmmm....6 hits including 3 doubles in 4 innings equal no runs for reds. That might be a bad sign.

12 LLLLLLLLLLLL in a row for the Reds. Couldn't even win their last Home game of the year vs a disinterested Cub team. Line dropped hard too.
 

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Picked up $167 in MLB yesterday, now -$1220.


PIT-BAL NFL Series broke pattern last year with 3 decisions by 13+ last year including Playoffs. The previous 13 matchups had seen decisions by 4 points or less 11 times. Another notable event in this Series is the team that is undergoing a difficult situation usually rises up to win. It was a year and a week ago tonight in the midst of the Ray Rice Knockout fiasco that BAL crushed PIT 26-6 on a Thursday. PIT has also covered in this Series starting both Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon. Tout World is laying the chalk tonight. Hmm....
 

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Decided to pass FB.

MLB = ATL +190 / COL +190 / BOS +127 / TAM +105

WAS has quit. COL my only blemish last 2 nights but this line is outrageous so the chase is on. ARZ is 6-16 off 3 or more Wins since July 2013. BOS has won its last 6 games by a 41-10 combined score. MIA has had AL Road success in only one city, HOU. In other AL Parks they've lost 11 straight.
 

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triple special on 5D

Heyward-bay under 37.5 yards +120
H Miller under 36.5 yards +130
Wheaton under 36.5 yards +105

These #s are more in line with Big Ben starting. With Bell back, he is going to eat a lot of targets that would go these guys way as well. If you just wanna bet 1 then I'd say Wheaton is probably the best but it's just an all out mispricing.

Forsett over 17.5 yards receiving. -120

Pitts run D is underrated and I think you will see Trestman make an effort to get the ball in Forsett's hands tonight. Gilmore the starting TE also out. Forsett's backup Taliaferro is probably out, even if he plays he seems to be banged up still.
 
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yest 4-3 +221
YTD 343-408 +4490

Thursday:

Miami -113 (@ TBy)
Miami -1' +151
Col +177 (@ Azo)

Thanks
 

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Of course my Shit Books have none of these available.

2 years ago I had 20K credit in 5D. They kept jacking up my agent's weekly PPH until he transferred to another place that sucks so bad they take the Noon Saturday games off the board at exactly Noon. Fidiots!
 

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Of course my Shit Books have none of these available.

2 years ago I had 20K credit in 5D. They kept jacking up my agent's weekly PPH until he transferred to another place that sucks so bad they take the Noon Saturday games off the board at exactly Noon. Fidiots!

Yeah, those are tough, tough lines to make when you have a QB switch with two distinctively different players. How do you set prop lines on 15 different guys when you have absolutely 0 data to go off? Obviously the books know they suck at this, why limits are low, cutoffs on props are fast, etc....Far more inefficient market but I only really bet them on stand-alone game slates to avoid hassle. Props are basically just derivatives of the game line, game total/script/flow...

Harder to handicap in a sense, but also you only have to cherry pick what you like.
 

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PatsFan if you see a weakness out there at one of these joints you have every right to exploit it. They're all a bunch of scumbag whores anyway.

I see one of those props now. You have H Miller under 36.5 yards +13. Mine has 38.5 yards UNDER -145. Like I said, whores.
 

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PatsFan if you see a weakness out there at one of these joints you have every right to exploit it. They're all a bunch of scumbag whores anyway.

I see one of those props now. You have H Miller under 36.5 yards +13. Mine has 38.5 yards UNDER -145. Like I said, whores.

Yeah I just meant it's better to exploit slow, pick spots, etc. You start betting 6-7 props a night in the NBA and you won't be doing that w/o limits for very long if you are winning. Unless you are balancing that with a lot more action for sides/totals

5D is good though. Customer service sucks but other than that really good book.

Does pinnacle even post props anymore? I used to go there and just check to compare their props to what I would look at, but I never see them on there anymore. Obviously can't log-in, maybe they have them if you log-in?
 
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Not that far after.

Probably like 10 days or so.

Might have to deposit at one of those joints. Local takes an eternity to put up win totals, props, and what not.

I'd ask you which totals you like but I'm sure you'd like to wait until you've made this wager with Vit.
 

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Yeah I just meant it's better to exploit slow, pick spots, etc. You start betting 6-7 props a night in the NBA and you won't be doing that w/o limits for very long if you are winning. Unless you are balancing that with a lot more action for sides/totals

5D is good though. Customer service sucks but other than that really good book.

Does pinnacle even post props anymore? I used to go there and just check to compare their props to what I would look at, but I never see them on there anymore. Obviously can't log-in, maybe they have them if you log-in?

I used to have credit in Pinny years ago too. I miss that place even more than 5D. Henry threw me out. Said I was betting stuff that moved later because I was with Billy. He was half right. What I was doing was tracking Billy. He was betting certain college hoop teams that one year, sides and totals, and always chasing after a loss. So if he bet Youngstown on Thursday and lost, he'd hit them again Saturday. Or say he bet 2 teams (not playing each other) UNDER on a weeknight, and he lost both because they went OVER. Now 2 of those teams were scheduled to meet on Saturday. Well I'd hit the Opener UNDER. An hour later Billy's crew would hit it. True Story. I knew nothing, and Henry threw me out! All I was trying to do was open up Middles to close up later at a different store, usually Jazz because they ran with Billy's moves.
 

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Yeah Pinny seems to have scaled back offerings bigtime, unless you can only see it when you log-in.

They really have nothing now for NFL/MLB/NBA. Just game sides/totals.

Matchbook was great. That was a really good product.
 

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