Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

[vitterd]

I went 0-11 yesterday. Really it was 0-12 because I forgot to post Tennessee. Didn't forget to bet them though.

I don't know whether to either challenge you guys to even attempt to go 0-11, which you can't because it's mathematically impossible.... or to rescind the no bashing rule in this thread. Because really, for someone for calls himself a handicapper I either suck or have completely lost my edge, probably both. I am running like Wall Street. It's no longer turn on CNBC to see if it's down, it's how much has it dropped today? How I am still alive financially I do no know. Actually I do know. I'm opposite most bettors. My amounts drop when I'm losing. My nickels in July are dollar bets now. At least I did one thing right! But a few more weeks like this and they're gonna carry me out of here, so until they do, can't blame you - Fade Away.

Everybody that gambles consistently has gone on really bad runs. It will turn around. New day today

May the horrific, game changing interference calls be in your favor today. GL

 

[vitterd]

Records carried over from pick forums

baseball 89-73(+17,355)

ncaaf 11-12(-2200)

NFL 5-11(-7100)

Baseball 89-73(+17,355)

ncaaf 14-16(-3600)

nfl 5-11(-7100)

 

[vitterd]

NFL Sunday Sept 27th

eagles +1.5

dall/atl under 43

Raiders +3.5

Bills +2

sf/ariz over 45

 

[Acebb]

"Baseball 89-73(+17,355)"

Wed Sept 23rd

Oakland +109

^ That play lost so your record needs updated.

 

[ScottL]

Everybody that gambles consistently has gone on really bad runs. It will turn around. New day today

May the horrific, game changing interference calls be in your favor today. GL

Just going over today's card I found at least 3 teams that were ref-robbed in the previous matchup.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I went 0-11 yesterday. Really it was 0-12 because I forgot to post Tennessee. Didn't forget to bet them though.

I don't know whether to either challenge you guys to even attempt to go 0-11, which you can't because it's mathematically impossible.... or to rescind the no bashing rule in this thread. Because really, for someone for calls himself a handicapper I either suck or have completely lost my edge, probably both. I am running like Wall Street. It's no longer turn on CNBC to see if it's down, it's how much has it dropped today? How I am still alive financially I do no know. Actually I do know. I'm opposite most bettors. My amounts drop when I'm losing. My nickels in July are dollar bets now. At least I did one thing right! But a few more weeks like this and they're gonna carry me out of here, so until they do, can't blame you - Fade Away.

As Vit already said, it happens to all of us. You'll get it turned around, all good handicappers do. Best of luck today.

 

[Acebb]

NCAAF record is 3-1-1 (+$190)
My MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)

Plays from the little hat (all at -$110):

WASHINGTON U +2
TOLEDO -6½
MINNESOTA U -9½
UTAH +10½

Enjoy your Saturday & Good luck.

Didn't really like yesterday's card and my system gave me WVU and I didn't play it as I thought the line was too high in a rivalry game. Bad call by me.


NCAAF record is 5-3-1 (+$170)
My MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)

 

[MantisToboggan]

May the horrific, game changing interference calls be in your favor today. GL

Don't leave out illegal contact, roughing the passer, unsportsmanlike conduct and defensive holding. It can come from many directions these days.

 

[Acebb]

I went 0-11 yesterday. Really it was 0-12 because I forgot to post Tennessee. Didn't forget to bet them though.

Have you ever considered picking games out of a hat?

 

[ScottL]

Thanks Vit & Mantis.

"Dear G-D, please bring Mantis back to the forum. I don't care if I lose every game on Saturday. I need my favorite poster!"

G-D I was only joking. C'mon Man!



Last time Dallas played Atlanta, a Sunday night game in 2012. ATL was -3, leading 16-13 very late. Middle on the way! Nope! Dallas turns it over on downs and ATL hits a chipshot FG with .22 left. Bitched about it then and I'll bitch about it now. If you run the ball outside and either make FD or waste a few seconds and then kneel at your opponent's 10YL, they then need 50+ yards in 17 seconds with no Timeouts to tie. It's not happening! You don't kick FG to increase lead from 3 to 6 with .22 left Mike Smith as it's riskier. Unless you just want the game off the number! That's Wayne Fontes type Thanksgiving Bullshit.

 

[Acebb]

Some notes on today’s games in case this helps with anyone’s picks:

OAKLAND at CLEVELAND
Ugly. Browns 3-8 ATS chalk last 11 since late 2012. Oakland has lost last 3 road games by a combined 130-27 point margin (-72 points ATS). Raiders are 1-11
SU & 2-10 ATS at AFC North sites, including 0-5 SUATS the last five. West coast teams are 0-2 ATS/SU in 1pm EST games this year.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE
Cats 4-0 SU ATS the last four against Ravens and 14-6-1 ATS run in this series. Lewis 10-5-1 as regular season road dog since 2011. Ravens 1-10 ATS as home chalk before playing Pittsburgh. Ravens 35-7 SU at M&T Bank Stadium since 2010

JACKSONVILLE at NEW ENGLAND
Belichick, 1-8 ATS as double digit fav since 2012. Jags 11-20-2 ATS as dog for Gus Bradley. Brady has 7 TD’s no INT’s and 754 passing yards in 2 games.

PHILADELPHIA at NY JETS
Kelly now 11-14 ATS as chalk with Eagles. Jets are +8 in turnovers this year. Eagles on a 0-4 SU/ATS run after playing Dallas.

San Diego at MINNESOTA
Chargers in a second consecutive 1:00 PM ET kickoff game. Rivers 0-4 SU/ATS all-time at Minny. Mike McKoy is 7-2 ATS in non- conference games.
Zimmer is 8-1 ATS in last 9 non-conference games and Minny is on a 9-3 ATS run. West coast teams are 0-2 ATS/SU in 1pm EST games this year.

TAMPA BAY at HOUSTON
Lovie 6-3 as road dog since last year. O’Brien 6-2 as chalk with Texans.
Tampa 0-6 SU/ATS the last 6 away @ AFC games when playing off a division win and on 1-7 ATS run after playing the Saints.

PITTSBURGH at ST. LOUIS
Steelers 0-10 ATS off SU/ATS win vs non-division foe off SU/ATS loss.
Roethlisberger 9-2 SU/ 8-3 ATS all time vs. NFC West.
Rams only had 213 yards of offense last week. Rams over 17-9 last 26 at home

ATLANTA at DALLAS
Weeden is 5-16 SU and 7-12-2 ATS as a starter in the NFL and 0-8 SUATS his last eight. Atlanta no covers in last four in second of back-to-backs on road

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE
Colts' 7-0 ATS run as division Road Favs, and 6-0-1 ATS (7-0 SU) run for Indy over the Titans. Colts 20-4 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in this series in the last 12 years

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA
Cards are 10-3-1 ATS last 14 at home. Palmer 10-1 SU as QB for Zona and 15-
4-1 ATS last twenty starts. Niners on 8-2 ATS run vs the Cards (5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS as dog).

BUFFALO at MIAMI
Bills 3-1 SU/ATS last four vs. Dolphins. Bills 7- 2 as dog since last year. Rex had gone 6-2 ATS vs. Fish (4-2 SU/ATS @ MIA) while with Jets. Philbin 4-7 ATS as home chalk since 2013.
Bills have a 307-120 Rushing yard edge this year, Miami has 2 touchdowns in 2 games.

DENVER at DETROIT
Denver is on a 43-10 SU run and 21-12 ATS as visitor since Manning arrived in 2012. Lions 6-7-1 ATS last 14 at home and Detroit only has 107 yards rushing this year.

 

[ScottL]

Have you ever considered picking games out of a hat?

I am now. It's working for you!



Best to always suck at this then once make money and then suck. If you've always sucked it's easier to quit.

 

[vitterd]

Baseball 89-73(+17,355)

ncaaf 14-16(-3600)

nfl 5-11(-7100)

Baseball 89-74(16,355)

ncaaf 14-16 (-3600)

nfl 5-11(-7100)

 

[vitterd]

Don't leave out illegal contact, roughing the passer, unsportsmanlike conduct and defensive holding. It can come from many directions these days.

So true.....defensive infractions can turn winners into losers quick.

 

[ScottL]

Steelers 2-8 SU+ATS at NFC Game 1-4 since 1991
STL 12-1 ATS off Loss by 14+

OAK 0-17 as Dog if beat ATS Line by 7+ points previous Game.
CLE 1-14 ATS Home before 2+ Away

NE 0-10 ATS -12 to -14.5 since 2007

 

[ScottL]

Don't leave out illegal contact, roughing the passer, unsportsmanlike conduct and defensive holding. It can come from many directions these days.

Chris Berman once said, "The flag came from the third row, after the Bills left the field!"

That was the 25-21 game where the Pats were -3 and scored the 2-point conversion to end the game with no opponent on the field.

 

[ScottL]

T-3 hours to my buddy Scott Hanson lol

 

[Acebb]

I am now. It's working for you!



Best to always suck at this then once make money and then suck. If you've always sucked it's easier to quit.

Heh.

I'm just trying to lighten the mood.

If anyone won yesterday, congrats to them. It just seemed like a crappy card with the match-ups and hopefully next week is better for everyone.

 

[Acebb]

Week 3 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants (3-2 Last Week, 8-2 ATS YTD)
1	Carolina -4.5	By 713
2	Indianapolis -3	By 637
3	Buffalo +3	By 440
4	Pittsburgh -1.5	By 439
5	Baltimore -2.5	By 428

 

[Acebb]

I made an error:

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE
Cats 3-0 SU/ATS the last 3 (Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings) against Ravens and 14-6-1 ATS run in this series. Lewis 10-5-1 as regular season road dog since 2011. Ravens 1-10 ATS as home chalk before playing Pittsburgh. Ravens 35-7 SU at M&T Bank Stadium since 2010