Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

[ScottL]

Saw all that but still didn't have the ballinis to pull the trigger. Nice one, Scott.

Because HOU should have beaten them 132-87? Was that your reason (LOL)?

Fuck 'em all. Sure, I'll "Cap" the shit, use my stats when applicable etc.

But when I envision money is about to be stolen I'll drive the getaway car for these Fucking Pigs.

Bookies gotta hand an envelope to somebody every week no?

 

[Michelangelo]

12-10 +163 W1

Fee nix +2 -105 (vs NY Nix)

GL guys

 

[Michelangelo]

What I saw was that Brooklyn had beaten Houston in both their matchups last year, one as a +5 dog, the other as a +11' dog. Houston has been on a roll. Brooklyn has been Brooklyn. The line opened at 15' and was down to 13' when I was doing my handicapping. Is Houston really gonna get up for double revenge against BROOKLYN? Smelled to me that Houston would lay down a bit and Brooklyn would rise up again, encouraged by their two SU wins last year. I find the NBA to be a game of "who's coming to play" more than any other sport. I don't see it as "fixes" as you imply. I just see teams "bringing it" some nights and relaxing other nights. The trick is in determining who's bringing iit or laying down on any given night. Just the way I handicap the NBA Scott. Good luck, bro.

But I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. You did. I was congratulating you.

 

[boss415]

The Turd just pussed out on a measly dime bet for the bowl games. "I have thousands bet you have zero" is being spewd out all over again.

 

[ScottL]

What I saw was that Brooklyn had beaten Houston in both their matchups last year, one as a +5 dog, the other as a +11' dog. Houston has been on a roll. Brooklyn has been Brooklyn. The line opened at 15' and was down to 13' when I was doing my handicapping. Is Houston really gonna get up for double revenge against BROOKLYN? Smelled to me that Houston would lay down a bit and Brooklyn would rise up again, encouraged by their two SU wins last year. I find the NBA to be a game of "who's coming to play" more than any other sport. I don't see it as "fixes" as you imply. I just see teams "bringing it" some nights and relaxing other nights. The trick is in determining who's bringing iit or laying down on any given night. Just the way I handicap the NBA Scott. Good luck, bro.

But I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. You did. I was congratulating you.

Oh I know you were congratulating me Jim. You've always been nothing but a gentleman and a positive contributor in all the rooms here.
Anyway I guess it doesn't matter much the path to arriving at Winners as much as whether you land safely in the winners circle. I've always thought pro sports were a criminal enterprise and the worst of it to me started with the Pistons era championship teams. I started to go with the flow as they always left the backdoor open. I used to tease them AND bet against them, IN THE SAME GAME But mostly bet against them vs lower tier teams.

Another thing that convinces me the NBA is rigged is Totals. Totals started getting put out in 1984 as entertainment bets for degens who ALWAYS BET OVERS. The average O/U line in 1984 was 228. It dropped every year until a few years ago when it leveled off. Since Total betting began the entire style and pace of NBA games changed and scores lowered to several bottoms which caused the fans to grumble and the league to step in. Human nature causes people to bet OVER. The first NBA Totals FIX was rumored in a 1987 game when MILW visited PHX. The story was news but only for a day or two.

 

[ScottL]

OVER 189 cle-mem

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks for the response, Scott.

Like you I've had games where things were outlandishly "fishy". It appears to be most obvious where totals are involved. But I think those "true fix" games are not very common because it would be crazy crazy for an NBA player to jeopardize his paycheck for a by comparison few thousand measly dollars. The refs are a different story. But even they can't want to take the chance of blowing that gig. They don't make player money but I'd think that most of them are damned happy to have that job. I know that O'Donnell (think that was his name) was caught but I still don't think ref shaving is rife.

I also think that I'd be crazy to study the art of handicapping and bet one dime of money if I thought the games were rigged.

The thing is, I do believe that there are games when coaches and or players do not give max effort. But I think it's for different reasons than rigging the games. My challenge is to first figure relative matchup strengths (or weaknesses) and then integrate expected level of effort into the equation. It sure ain't easy but that's how I go about handicapping the NBA for better or worse.

Good luck Scott.

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

Wednesday

13-10 +263 W2

Washing up +1' -101 (vs Harlot)

GL guys

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

14-10 +363 W3

In Deana +2' -103 (@ NOr)

GL guys

 

[Michelangelo]

Wk 1 // 2-5-1 -311
Wk 2 // 6-2 +397
Wk 3 // 6-4 +185
Wk 4 // 5-4 +96
Wk 5 // 5-4-1 +93
Wk 6 // 7-4 +300
Wk 7 // 6-5-1 +62
Wk 8 // 5-4 +83
Wk 9 // 3-5-2 -214
Wk 10 // 7-3 +406
Wk 11 // 8-4 +402
Wk 12 // 4-9-1 -542
Wk 13 // 2-9 -740
Wk 14 // 5-5 -13

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Week 15

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Thursday:

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Seattle -15 -105 (vs St L)
Since Russell Wilson took this team over in 2012, the Seahawks are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS after a loss in November and December. It should also be noted that last week's 10-38 loss was the worst loss Seattle has taken with Wilson under center. Add in that Seattle has lost their last three SU and ATS to these Rams. Focus for a beatdown.

 

[ScottL]

505 ATL Hawks +7

511 SAC Kings +5.5

513 NOR Pelicans +13

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

14-11 +260 L1

Boston -6' +102 (vs Charl)

 

[ScottL]

Foot = 12-100
203 Houston -5



B-Ball = 43-34
723 South Carol -10.5

 

[ScottL]

711 NYK +4

744 Wich St -7

752 Akron -7


Dear San Diego State Aztecs,
Please all die in a fire. Thanks! Scott

 

[Michelangelo]

Is that vit speaking above?

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NBA

15-11 +362 W1

NY Knicks +4 -106 (@ Denv)

 

[Michelangelo]

NFL

Saturday:

NY Jets +2' -101 (vs Mia)
Jets have won only one game at home this year. Miami got the first one. Jets turn.

 

[boss415]

10/18
Tb/Dal under 47.5
Titans +6

 

[ScottL]

TB Bucs +7

PHI Eagles +5

NOR Saints +3

DEN Broncos +3

CIN Bengals +3


DAL Mavs -1.5

 

[Michelangelo]

Jets suck old witches' .

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Sunday:

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NY Giants -4 -106 (vs Det)
Balty -5 -105 (vs Philly)
Chicago +4' -108 (vs GBy)
Cleveland +10' -108(@ Buf)
Kansas City -6 -106 (vs Tenny)
Arizona -3 -107 (vs NOr)
New England -3 -100 (@ Denv)

 

[Michelangelo]

I like your Under, boss. Tampa's Defensive weakness is against the run. Ezekial all day.