Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

[Acebb]

Gearing up, courtesy of ESPN

Best ATS records over last 5 years:
1. Georgia Southern 20-8
2. Stanford 44-24
3. Houston 42-23-1
4. Baylor 40-23-1
5. Arkansas State 40-24-1

Worst ATS records in last 5 years:
1. Connecticut 20-39-2
2. Eastern Michigan 22-37-1
3. Kansas 22-37-1
4. Virginia Tech 24-40-2
5. Kentucky 23-37-0


College football favorites covered the spread in more games last year during the regular season than any other regular season in the last 11 years. Favorites went 423-385 (52.35 percent) last season. It was only the third time in the last 11 seasons that favorites covered the spread in more than 400 games (it has happened three of the last five regular seasons). Overall, since 2005, favorites are 4,074-4,029 ATS, according to sports betting database BetLabs.

 

[ScottL]

I hear ya. The only thing I would say is....you can see back a bunch of pages I praised Acebb for his contribution, and even asked his opinion on a game involving his hometown team...he was normal until his picks tanked....then out of embarrassment he started attacking me again.

Sheriff Joe had many of the same arguments, he was banned and threatening people.....BEFORE I got here. So, that's why you believe I'm the one capable of changing the things in here and I agree.

I will leave the old guy in okl alone until he attacks me again.....and even then I will let him be if he keeps it to a minimum. I will say that a few months back, I left the 3 main cancers alone for a few days.....and it didn't slow them down one bit.

But I will tone it down and let some things go.....but that will just drive them further....if I don't pay attention to them, it doesn't stop it. Today a good example.....Joe and Zit both woke up, logged in and starting "Vit posting" right away. And it's like that almost every day.

That said....upon your request, I will dial it down....not shut it off but dial it down. I will hand out fat lips instead of shattering teeth and walk away laughing at some of it instead of replying.

Alright we'll leave this here. I wish you had not taken shots at those guys above, only because I already know your feelings. They may now think they also need to take a parting shot(s) but I hope they will hold back (at least in here). Nobody wants to be called a cancer. I understand perfectly what you tried to do earlier with Ace in this thread. Let's face it, Ace has a unique perspective and brings some ATS figures here even I don't maintain. (Damn I gotta hurry up and prep for tonight so I can post these Week A systems)

I wish everyone would post and maintain a record. Also to write a sentence or 2 about why they're on each pick. I also believe hot cappers should get attaboys from other posters but losing should never be bashed. Yeah, in what world?

 

[ScottL]

Ace and Guesser, thank you for your contributions in this thread.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Good to have football back.

Vandy -4

 

[Acebb]

For you trends people, strongest ATS games of the weekend (listed by game time). Just identifying 1 very good ATS team and 1 really crappy ATS team. There are many sub-angles out there, but I like to boil it down to the basics.

Also note that Ole Miss is on a very impressive ATS run and BYU is a better ATS team than Zona but doesn't qualify as strong.

WESTERN KENTUCKY
On a 12-5 run, as well a 9-2 conference run (32-18 ATS in its last 50 conf games). And WKU are 6-1 HFs lately. Brohm 6-2 laying DDs past 2 years

Rice is just 5-19 SU in road openers. Rice is on a 2-7 ATS burner and 2-5-1 ATS as a road dog recently. Owls 1-4-1 as DD dog past two seasons.

WESTERN MICHIGAN
WMU 18-10 ATS last 28 on board (smaller 16-7 run) and 11-4 last 15 as visiting dog. WMU 11-4 ATS as a road dog under Fleck

Cats only 13-24 ATS as home chalk since Fitz took over in 2006. NW 5-12 run as hosts and 1-8 as recently as HFs

UTEP
UTEP 7-0 SU, 5-0-2 ATS last 7 in series and 8-2 ATS at Sun Bowl past two seasons.

NM ST 0-9 ATS in their openers and a money burning 6-15 ATS run on the road

WASHINGTON
UW is 25-5 SU in home openers. UW 5-2 last seven as Seattle chalk and was 2-0 as DD chalk in 2015. Huskies were 4-0 against non-conference opponents last year.
Rutgers last 6 road losses have been by 32.5 ppg. RU on 1-5 and 3-8 slides. Also, Knights 2-6 last 8 as DD dog, 1-6 ATS last 6 getting 17 or more

 

[The Guesser]

+95
So far, no plays. Sean is 1-9, but he announced Saints will play starters for a Q, while Harbaugh announced the opposite, no starters, and he's 3-5 himself. Fisher is 12-6, but I missed the early line of Vikes -3.5 which collapsed after Tedy got hurt(He wasn't playing in this game anyway, so don't understand the drop. Vikes Psyche?).
Marvin is 10-3 Week 4, but don't like laying more than a FG in any week 4 game.
Andy is 6-11 in week 4, but McCarthy is 4-6.
Del Rio is 7-3, but Pete is 4-2.
Another week 4 angle I like is extra short rest(played Sunday), vs Extra Long Rest(played Thursday). There are 2 qualifiers. Atl and Dallas. Atlanta has announced their starters will play some, and the line is over a FG, so no play right now. Dallas only has one QB on the roster, Showers who will play whole game. If he gets hurt???? If they sign another guy before the game, I might play Dallas.

1/2 U Dallas(+3) (E) 5 Dimes. They signed an emergency QB, Jarrod Jonson, who can run around on soon to be Uber drivers as well as Jammelle Showers if need be.

 

[ScottL]

MLB Tonight: CWS -114

Football [2-0]

120 NOR Saints -4.5

132 OAK RAIDERS -1.5

141 So Carolina +5.5

 

[ScottL]

College Football Week A ONLY:

Thursday 2-8 OU last year, 22-22 L3Y

Thurs-Sat SECOND HALVES 11-26 O/U LY (def going to hit these UNDERS, at least tonight)

Faves 11 or higher = 120-84 ATS last 8 years

Faves 10.5-22 = 69-33 ATS last 8Y

SATURDAY ONLY Week A last year Faves of 22 or higher went 8-0 ATS

 

[Michelangelo]

Embarrassed.

yest 1-9 -2192
YTD 431-628 -10431

Thursday:

Moamo +216 (@ NYM) 3*

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Cub -1' +165 (vs SFo) 3*

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

CWS -1' +143 (@ Min) 3*

 

[ScottL]

College Football Week A ONLY:

Thursday 2-8 OU last year, 22-22 L3Y = 1-6 O/U last night

Thurs-Sat SECOND HALVES 11-26 O/U LY (def going to hit these UNDERS, at least tonight) = 1-6 O/U last night.

Faves 11 or higher = 120-84 ATS last 8 years

Faves 10.5-22 = 69-33 ATS last 8Y

SATURDAY ONLY Week A last year Faves of 22 or higher went 8-0 ATS

Updated..... Went 6-1 betting 2H UNDERS last night. (Not counting system posts on my record unless they are posted as individual Plays here)

Football 3-2 Friday Stanford -13

MLB -3.75 Units
MIL +158 / WAS +148 / ARIZ -118 / UN 8.5 +100 laa-sea / MIA +280 who I guess is playing with no outfielders tonight according to this FOUL LINE.

 

[Michelangelo]

yest 1-2 +48
YTD 432-630 -10383

Friday:

Atlanta +124 (@ Phi) 3*
Milw +157 (@ Pit) 3*
NYY +124 (@ Bal) 3*
St L -1' +132 (@ Cin) 3*
Tampa Bay +136 (vs Tor) 3*
Colorado +112 (vs Azo) 3*
Oakland +138 (vs Bos) 3*
LAA +107 (@ Sea) 3*

Thanks

 

[akphidelt]

Nym rl

 

[MantisToboggan]

NCAAF 0-1 -1.1

Stanford -13

 

[ScottL]

Nym rl

You look vaguely familiar???

 

[akphidelt]

Clemson national champs. Put your life savings on it. Absolutely no one is going to be able to stop that offense!

 

[ScottL]

Went 4-1 betting 2Half UNDERS last night ..... 27 2H UNDERS to hit today with one in progress.
All 5 games went UNDER yesterday for the full game, so full games 1-11 O/U last 2 days.
Last year on the first full Saturday games with closing lines of 57+ were 10-2 OVER, so must be cautious.

 

[ScottL]

Instead of MIDDLING Stanford last night I PUSHED laying a bad number. The game got played down to 11.5 or 12 late. OUCH!!!

 

[vitterd]

Carrying from ncaaf thread forum( posting same in both threads)

9/2

Army +14.5

9/3

UCLA +3