NFL
posted 1/27 looking for a line advantage. Looks like I got it.
regular season 79-73-1 +341
Wild Card 2-2 -17
Divisional 2-1 +100
Conf Champ 1-1 -10
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I'm pissed at myself that I didn't jump on the -4 when it was available. I see some 5s popping up now so while I can still get:
Carolina -4' -110 (vs Denver)
I'll add tidbits to the thread as I have time but I am clear who I am supporting here with my money.
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I'm sick so I'll try to highlight my thoughts.
Turnovers define Super Bowl winners. We did the studies years ago. It's almost a clean sweep that the team making the most turnovers, loses.
Carolina leads the NFL in turnover's gained at 39 (24 int; 15 fumb recoveries)
Denver is #7 at 27 (14 int; 13 fumb)
Now we come to turnover differential:
Carolina is #1 at +20
Denver is #20 at -4.
Now the individual QB (where the turnover is likely to be made) stats.
All 12 games Peyton Manning 13 TDs and 18 turnovers (17 picks; 1 fumble)
Since midseason Cam Newton 31 TDs (24 passing; 7 running) and 4 turnovers (2 picks; and 2 fumbles)
Take a hard look at those numbers. No, I don't like a showboat, but the contrast in stats is undeniable and overwhelmingly in favor of Carolina.
Your response is, if Denver can shut down Tom Brady they can certainly shut down Cam. Here are the fallacies in that argument.
1) This is the most important - the Patriot O line was made of paper all year. I got duped when they kept Brady virtually untouched vs Kansas City. But that was at home vs an unagressive Defense. In Denver, the Pats O linemen could not hear the snap counts because of the unrelenting crowd noise. So a bad O line got worse because the Pats were playing in Denver. The Carolina O line will not have those crowd noise problems today. And they have a MUCH Better O line than the Patriots did. That bad line served up the game plan for Denver's D when the Pats were unable to run the ball (44 yds). Coming hard at Cam Newton will have serious consequences for Denver's D as Carolina has the best running game in the NFL, just the opposite of the Patriots.
Don't expect Cam Newton to get hit 23 times like Brady did. It ain't gonna happen.
But expect the Carolina D to dial it up a notch against Peyton. Denver played with a lead all the way through against the Pats. If and when Denver gets behind, you can expect Peyton to put the ball up for grabs. He had the best Offensive line in the NFL for his full career in Indy. This year's Denver version is shaky and that is reflected in the Peyton TD/ int ratio, 13/17.
Denver got their big win by beating the Champs last week. Carolina gets theirs today.
