PoliticoPundit MLB Angles Thread #3

[ScottL]

+ $4,800 for Thread --Half-Unit afternoon Bets for Thursday:

MILW 100/165

CSOX 100/160

I think I'll go 1-1 here and that's why I'm doing it. MIL has won 5 of 7 when down 0-2 in a Road Series since last year. I'm not sold on Smoltz yet and I still think he's done, although the coaching staff in STL is TOPS with pitchers mechanics and stuff. Still, you need a fastball in MLB if your name isn't Wakefield [or Hough] .... I would not touch Chisox if not for Minny waking them up yesterday. But since they are awake now [I Think] I note that the Cubs are 2-9 with Dempster starting if they allowed 4 Runs or less in his previous start.

Also Note: Will never lay 240 but Misch starts for the Mets today. The last 41 times Misch threw a pitch in a Major League Game his Teams, SF+NYM, are 4-37!

 

[barman]

Mixed in CHW with a TB rl parlay for a 0.5 2TP that pays 6x1

If early game fails, I'll likely skip out on the TB selection. But if it hits, then I've got a nice 20/119 reason to yell extra hard at Rays broadcast tonight.

 

[barman]

Also used CLE and SF in similar fashion (0.5 unit 2TP)

Otherwise, taking day off after the big Wednesday.

I have SC/NCST Under 46.5 to wrap up a 1.0 unit 2TP that began earlier this week with a MLB selection which hit

 

[ScottL]

THURS MLB [Foots to Follow]:

LA DODGERS -1.5 RUNS -105 210/200

TOR BJAYS +120 200/240

OAK A'S -135 270/200

Stat for A's -- 15-4 Game #1 Home Series if off Home Series.
Stats vs Sea --
3-17 Game #1 of Series off a Win
3-15 Off 2 Wins and allowed 6 Runs or less combined
Lost first Game of last 7 Road Trips by combined score of 44-9

 

[barman]

Ayuh...upon more detailed review, I found the OAK -1.5 pretty appealing for reasons similar to your own

shoved it into yet another 0.5 2TP with MIL ml....If Brews fail me, I'll repackage it later tonight

Good to see Tribe with 3 run eighth and Brews down only by one...Heading out for lawn/garden shift with all three modest investments percolatin'

 

[barman]

No wait! One more reason to leave for work with a budding chubby

 

[ScottL]

Would have been happy with a split early. I may get both in yet! Football Bets:

BUF -3 210/200

UNDER 37 phi at jets 210/200

UNDER 35.5 balt at atl 315/300
[On the Road vs NON-DIV incl preseason BAL has gone UNDER 60 out of 74, No Joke]!

OAK +3 210/200 [acually took +4 earlier this week]

NCST -4.5 315/300

UTAH -21 even 200/200

BOY -3 210/200

I only WISH I had time to type the Angles and Systems I have on these Games. But..... Got a website to update, an ad to write for Sportsnow Pager, and contest plays to put in. Oh, and of course, rundowns to take. BUSY time of year! GLTA!!!

 

[Willie99]

OK, now that football is starting, I can make some really small action plays on baseball

Rays & Yanks 5 cent to win 11.1 cent

fuck you too

 

[BASEHEAD]

Hello all, hope everyone is doing OK. Youre all officially satirical pundits it seems.

Willie you shouldve stayed away from the Rays....

Im on the Yanks tho.At this price Id take them no matter what the matchup looks like.

Last 12 games where the Yanks are -130 or less (incl. underdogs) they are 11-1.

Yanks -130.

GLTA

 

[barman]

Willie, good to see ya here in the REAL Kooks thread

(you too, Head.....though we're getting a bit heavy with northeast-uhn accents)

After last night's big win, SheBar sez, "you should send Willie some of that outstanding tax prep bill"

She's absolutely correct.

But I really want to use the new USPS Obama postage stamp I read about on the RxPoliticoPub forum and I can't find it

 

[barman]

FLORIDA MARLINS +117

1.0 Unit risk

The Braves of TheATL are 5-13 (going back to early May) when playing Away After Scoring 6+ in previous game. They're just 3-16 when graded at -1.5, in case you might prefer to FLA +1.5 (-138)

 

[Willie99]

er, barbanman, could you kindly remove my last name?

tank u


PS: I like the way shebar thinks

 

[barman]

With OAK -1.5 pending to pay me a +5.75 and TB -1.5 pending to pay me a +2.5, I just booked a hedge 2Teamer which fully absorb my original combined stakes of 1.5 on the three 2TPs I posted this afternoon.

BOS +1.5
SEA +1.5

1.0 pays 1.5



SIDE NOTE....This is a key component to using a parlay (2Teamers mostly) based wagering strategy. By having my start times staggered, I'm almost always in a position to cover my original stake in late game if early game(s) come in.

So essentially, I've $0 at risk this evening, and a guaranteed decent profit if one or both of OAK -1.5 or TB -1.5 goes my way.

 

[barman]

okay....now got to jump about a mile up the street, cut two yards side by side for a nice $60 combined, and then back home by 830pm to yell at the Rays broadcast

 

[barman]

FRIDAY, Sep 4

Updating a couple of pertinent Angles here regarding TB Rays:

For Friday's game vs Detroit:

a) Since May 1, Rays have played 16 Home games After a Home game where they gave up 5+ runs.

They're 14-2 in those, with ten of the wins by 2+ runs.

If we give them a mulligan for April, when they lost four times in this role, we can then move back into the last five months of 2008, where they were 15-3 in such spots

b) 2008-9, in Home games After losing a Home game by 2+ runs, the Rays are 29-8 and 14 of past 15
======
And possibly for Saturday's game:

When playing a Home Game2 After not winning Game 1 by at least 4 runs, the Rays have won 31 of their past 32 chances.

 

[barman]

TIGERS in Game1 Aways this season are 7-14 (3-7 in Series1)

============
Anaheim Angels....Past 35 Away are 21-12-2 vs TeamTotal "5"
KC Royals....Past 21 Home are 13-7-1 for OpponentTeamTotal "5"

=========
SanDiego Padres....This season Game1s Away are 18-4 vs the posted Total. Add in last season's 19-7 in same role and that's a combined 37-11 for the Over

=========
Washington Nationals this season in overall Game1s are 9-35. When this target game follows a Loss, they're just 3-19

Florida Marlins in overall Game1s this season are 24-19. When those games are Away, they're 12-8. Last season in Game1s Away they were 15-11.................Tightening this stat, first game Away from home, they're 6-4 this season and 7-4 last year

=========

 

[barman]

Updating this Angle from Scott

HOUSTON Astros, first game Home off road are 0-10 vs the posted Total. Last season they were 2-10 in same role and in the final four such spots of 2007 they were 0-4 (combined 2-24 to the Under)

Their opponent Friday - Phillies - this season have seen 13 of their 21 Game1s Away finish Under the posted Total

===
MILW Brewers this season After an AwayWin are 22-9 vs the posted Total.

MILW also 8-0-1 past couple months in Home games vs LH starters. Brewers topped their own teamtotal in six of those games, so it was not simply due to the other teams' bats

Their opponent Friday - SanFran - in overall Game1s NOT the first game Away from Home are 21-12 vs the posted Total

And in a stat which may surprise....Giants have only one time since May 24 logged four consecutive Unders. (they enter Friday's game with past three games Under)

 

[ScottL]

Excellent Stuff Barman! I might not have to type anything but plays tonight thanks to your efforts. I have Houton 20 straight UNDERS in Game #1 of Homestands. This includes Season Openers but not PUSHES. Did I miss an OVER somewhere in this stretch? If so, time for Lasik!

Updating here I LOST $600 in this thread last night to drop my profit to $4200. My capping was OFF last night. I was very fortunate not to get carried out, thanks to the late UTE'S Safety giving me a Dime Middle [50.5 and 52.5]!

Is Florida going to tank another Series at WASH? The last one was ridiculous with one huge comeback after another for GNATS. The price is way low here, as if Mr. Oddsmaker is expecting it to happen again.

As posted above, time for the late Season STL Road Swoon? It all started last year at PIT, and in that game Wainwright was only -130 vs Snell. I gotta back PIT, and I might have to DUOBLE UP tomorrow as the BUCS are 47-18 [8-1 in 2009] in Game #2 Home off Road. Back Latuh

 

[ScottL]

I gotta get rid of IE8. Can't even see my own Smileys anymore. One thing after another wth these fucking PCs.

 

[BASEHEAD]

Red Sox -115

when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season :19-7 This season, 71-30 Last 3 seasons

14-4 vs CWS head to head last 18 meetings , 6-2 L8 at Chicago.

GLTA.