I didn't come up w/ the stat, I validated it. The guy who mentioned it said it has to be 10 points or less and he is correct. Pit was +2.5 per Covers, per my DB they got all the way to -1. It appears you may have used an opening +3, which was bet down to essentially a pick.
If you don't believe the trend to be possible, that is fine. I'm telling you I checked and it is accurate per my numbers, and I have no reason to make anything up - I was not the original poster who found (or copied) the trend. I simply validated it.
I am not saying that is what will happen. All I am saying is the trend is accurate. The trend holds that teams who win SU also cover the spread in the CC round so long as the spread is less than double digits.
Therefore, should Pit or Phi win, and you are a "believer" in the trend, they are both likely to cover.
As for taking the dog w/ the points vs. ML, you are correct. Based upon these historical numbers, Ari ML is as safe as Ari + points. But I personally would be conservative enough to put some on both the line and the points.
I am not advocating any team, I am simply confirming the trend. And I will also add that should Phi win by 3 and Pit by 4, the trend would lose but would still have an impressive 47-2 record. Which means you need to look much deeper into these teams ability to cover in tight ballgames, should they be tight.
The trend is logical: teams playing w/ desperation and behind by 1 score (0-7 points) may be more aggressive earlier in the game to try to reclaim the lead, knowing they will miss their trip to the SB unless they do so. Whereas in the regular season, they may continue to play conservatively until the last moments of the game. Likewise, they may pull every single trick out of the bag, whereas in the regular season they still may be holding on to something.
All teams in the CC round are definitely very good, and can typically put up points under duress. And in the event that they run into a very good defense, it can lead to an even larger deficit when forcing and becoming too aggressive (turnovers). Which is why many favorites have a larger propensity to win and cover and many underdogs can win outright or will at least exhaust themselves trying.
Still, a tied game in the 4th with a 4-9 point favorite driving in the final minutes to kick a game winning FG is entirely possible, but it surprisingly has not happened since at least 1978.
I show that of the 47 games where the favorite is giving less than 10 points in the CC round, only 5 were decided by 3 or fewer points, and in every single case, the underdog was the victor.
There is an offensive hog index as well...final rankings for the remianig teams are"
14th - Eagles
18th - Cardinals
23rd - Ravens
28th - Steelers
The link is:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1024_Off._Hog_Index.html
Not a stats guy myself, but I will take the defensive and offensive, combine the two, and the Eagles win it all...
Maybe someone can take a look and tell us what they think...Shakes
14th - Eagles
18th - Cardinals
23rd - Ravens
28th - Steelers
The link is:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1024_Off._Hog_Index.html
Not a stats guy myself, but I will take the defensive and offensive, combine the two, and the Eagles win it all...
Maybe someone can take a look and tell us what they think...Shakes
