Bump. Now 8-0 pending with a certain Pit win TY and 18-1 predicting playoff outcomes, since this indicator (DHI) was developed last year. CHFF never realized it as Buddy Taylor, the best number cruncher I know, found this gem early last year. I keep asking him to post his plays, but he won't. That said, it looks like Phil and Pit will play in the SB. Phi will beat Arz next week and so will Pit squeak by Bal, the toughest game on the board.
Pups
email me at toby0351@yahoo.com
dont put too much stock into this-get back to me when u get a chance pal gl
email me at toby0351@yahoo.com
dont put too much stock into this-get back to me when u get a chance pal gl
They finally acknowledged Buddy Taylor's discovery of this stat. That said, beware of next year as these things always evolve.
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2630_The_not-so-secret_to_our_success.html
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2630_The_not-so-secret_to_our_success.html
If you read through their website they say that their only loss was San Diego last year at New England. I don't understand how they count that as a loss because San Diego covered the spread. If they are just saying that they have picked the winner to each game, then they have not covered each game. Just seems contradictory. Maybe someone else could explain this to me.
Since I started this, let me clarify. The website is using the DHI as an indicator for winning the game SU. Using my records for the 2 years this indicator has been in existence through yesterday's games, the results are: 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS (using the line I bet into). Certainly, this information has been helpful in picking a side to bet on, though it is not perfect. This year, the indicator is 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. And this is the last thing I will say about it.
For the AFC Champ game last year SD actually had the better DHI. They covered the 14 point spread but lost the game to NE. Hence the 10-1 S/U record.
There were 2 games were the favored team with the higher DHI won but did not cover. Oddly enough they both involved Jacksonville. In the Wildcard round they won 31-29 as a 2.5 point Fav at Pitt and then the following week they lost to NE 31-20 as 13.5 point dogs. So better DHI teams had a 9-2 record last year ATS.
Am I misreading this?
Going back to 1985, thats as far as I can go back, in the conference championship series, there have been 5 favs that won but didnt cover & 1 that won but got a push on the spread, so thats 6 times all together.
1991 Buffalo (-11) vs Denver Final: Buffalo 10-7
1995 Pittsburgh (-11.5) vs Colts Final: Pitt 20-16
1997 Denver (-3) vs Pittsburgh Final: Denver 24-21
1999 Rams (-14.5) vs Tampa Final: Rams 11-6
2001 Rams (-11) vs Eagles Final: Rams 29-24
2007 Patriots (-14) vs Jaguars Final: Patriots 21-12
