Pittsburgh +3.5

[ElIguana]

Before the games this weekend, most cappers would have expected Pitt to be favored (or at least a Pick `em) at home against NE. Now after a close win for the Steelers and a dominating win at home for the Pats, we see a line of Pats -3. While I am not excited about betting against the Pats, it looks like the line has been moved in over-reaction to the most recent game played for each team.

If the line stays at Pitt +3, I like teasing Pitt with the OVER (currently 36, but dropping like a stone). I may play the OVER individually as well, depending on the weather. There were 54 points scored in the first meeting between these 2 teams. Now I don't expect to see another 54 points, but NE had 4 turnovers and still scored 20 points. They will find a way to score on Pitt's D....if Pitt can keep up, we have an over. I hope the total keeps dropping. GLTA

 

[Berlino]

I believe the Pats ran into the team with the best defense last year..Carolina Panthers and put up 32 points.

Carolina wasn't close to having the best defense last year. They weren't in the top six in yards or points allowed. The best defense the Patriots played in the playoffs last season was the Titans' and New England kicked a FG late in the 4th quarter to win 17-14.

One other thing. the team that did beat the steelers this year,was beaten like a baby seal by the Pats. 27-3 or somthing.

Yes, Pittsburgh lost at Baltimore and the Ravens in turn lost 24-3 at New England. Pittburgh also beat Baltimore at home, 20-7. Naturally none of this means anything, just as it would be ridiculous to conclude Arizona's better than New England since they beat the same Miami team which upset the Patriots.

 

[BossTown]

I think the Colts/Pats game was about two things. Home field and the weather. If that game is in Indy the Colts win.

 

[Muddy]

Pitts home stats:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/steelers/homestat.htm


NE Road stats:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/patriots/road.htm

 

[hardcorecap]

Been hearing that Big Ben will be going without the glove on his throwing hand on sunday. To me that makes a difference.

 

[Muddy]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm.../20050120/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_afc_championship

 

[slick69]

I don't see how the steelers will be able to score. The game they played this earlier this year was the worst game the pats have played in two years. Belichek has made the Bus look foolish otherwise and there is no way a rookie QB will bring down this Patriots team

 

[HCTClippers]

Wow

After reading this thread and hearing people talk all week it seems really pointless to even play the game. Pittsburg has no chance!

Right?

Be very very carefull............they do have to play the game.

Pitt by 9

Cheers........

 

[Muddy]

Bettis and Staley could get 100+ yards each against Pats D!! It could happen with the way the Steelers are running the ball behind their stud O-line.

Both Bettis and Staley are running down-hill with a ferocious tenacity.

The Steelers not going to be afraid to pound it all day!

 

[the70srule]

The public is clearly on Pitt +3, just like they were on Minnesota last week.

We all know what that means.

Patriots dominate this game. Steelers don't belong.

Thanks to several bad kicks, all of a sudden this is NE at Pitt instead of SD at NE, or NY at NE.

I'm also taking Atlanta with the points. I'm hoping for Philly SU, but 5.5 is way too many points with a team of Atlanta's calibur on offense and defense, esp playing a team without their best player.

One big factor is the weather. Philly forcast is 31, with low of 15. Precip 90 percent with snow.

Makes me appreciate so cal!!!

 

[Berlino]

The public is clearly on Pitt +3,..

According to http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html a whopping 85% of the money they've seen is on New England.


The public doesn't have a long memory so they just look at Pitt struggling and NE winning big last week.

Yes, the public is on New England.

 

[ElIguana]

I guess since NE opened at -2, the line isn't moving off of -3 despite all the action on NE because the books see a good likelihood of getting middled if the Pats actually win by 3, which is exactly what I think will happen and why I don't like either side at +/- 3.

 

[Holysmoke+]

You figure on winning by a half a point and you call that the best bet of the year?Are you crazy?

lol, good point