Pittsburgh +3.5

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Eibon said:
Please don't cry when Pitt loses big.

They LOVE to choke in the championship games at home!
Understandable I guess. I personally dont think that the Steelers teams that lost the AFC championship games at home in I believe 1994, and 2001, have anything to do with this Steelers team of 2004.
 

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Meaningless stat in my opinion because other than facing the Manning led colts twice this year and twice last year and facing Tenny twice last year the other "Second time meetings" were against divisional opponents....also consider that both second meetings against the colts ( last year and this year ) and the rematch against Tenny in the playoffs last year all took place in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxboro and not on the road.<!-- / message -->
Now,Now dear deb12 that stat is not so meaninless when you consider Belichick is 5-8 when he sees them for the very first time....I shoud have mentioned that with above post.
 

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Patriots didn't score cause it was ball control..intentional 10min drives... think that's easy?....

In a close game, who would you rather have, Tom Brady, or Big Ben?...I would personally go with experience and Brady....Playoff play is of a different pace... not the same as the regular season...Ben seemed lost last week....
 

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Patriot. Your first post made an excellent point. And a reasons why bettors lose. they tend only to look at last weeks games.
 

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Now,Now dear deb12 that stat is not so meaninless when you consider Belichick is 5-8 when he sees them for the very first time....I shoud have mentioned that with above post.
Now Now dear Patriot..

You entirely missed the point I was trying to make... "1 stat that sticks out like sore thumb is Belichick is 13-0 against a QB he has seen for the second time"...other then facing divisional opponents that they see twice yearly anyway, the patriots faced the Colts twice and Tenn once and all three second season meetings took place in Foxboro.

Thus, the 13-0 record you mentioned is really negated because Belichick doesn't have home field advantage in his second season meeting with Pittsburgh as he had against Tenn and both times against the Colts.

take care and good luck

Deb
 

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Meaningless stat in my opinion because other than facing the Manning led colts twice this year and twice last year and facing Tenny twice last year the other "Second time meetings" were against divisional opponents....also consider that both second meetings against the colts ( last year and this year ) and the rematch against Tenny in the playoffs last year all took place in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxboro and not on the road.<!-- / message -->
deb12....let me clarify....Belichick is 5-8 the first time....13-0 the second time (SU)


Also Jets are very physical team on the road...teams that face the Jets at home have gone 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ats their next game losing to the spread by over a TD.
 

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I think Steelers will run the ball very well this weekend up the middle. N.E. ran the ball great against the colts small D-fence i don't think they will do that against Steelers. Should be a great game .Steelers win a close one.:103631605
 

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hardcorecap said:
Understandable I guess. I personally dont think that the Steelers teams that lost the AFC championship games at home in I believe 1994, and 2001, have anything to do with this Steelers team of 2004.

It does have one huge thing in common. Cowher. He has been notorious for over conservative coaching in the championship games and it has cost them.
 

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Pittsburgh + 3.5 might be the best bet of the year.

and I dont always like to buy points, but this game shouls be very tight.

I can see New England winning, but most likely by 3 or so.


Best bet of the year that:

You feel you need to buy a half-point on
You admit should be tight
You can see New England winning, but only by "3 or so".



The logic in this post (and bet) is atounding.
 

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Lots of dissent in this thread....:fight:

FWIW....

I'll take Belichick over Cowher
I'll take Brady over Big Ben
I'll take a team that has been there before, with the edges in coaching and quarterbacking to go to the big show again....

Last time they met the Steelers benefitted from 4 turnovers.....I don't think that happens twice with a Belichick coached team in the playoffs.

Just my opinion.

I've been a longtime Steeler fan, but I can't back them this time with all the experience of the Pats coming into this game.......only way I'll take a piece of Pittsburgh in this one will be to try to middle the 3 or middle at the half.
 

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hardcorecap said:
Understandable I guess. I personally dont think that the Steelers teams that lost the AFC championship games at home in I believe 1994, and 2001, have anything to do with this Steelers team of 2004.

Please tell me you weren't on the COLTS last Sunday!

Listen... the Chargers of this year had very little in common with the Browns of 86 or 87... except the head coach, who sure helped them piss away their playoff game. And your years are off, and missing one.

Here is a history lesson for everyone:

Steeler's AFC Championship history since 1980:

94/95 season <!--StartFragment --> AFC Championship: San Diego 17, PITTSBURGH 13

95/96 season <!--StartFragment -->AFC Championship: PITTSBURGH 20, Indianapolis 16 (barely scraped by in this one against a 9-7 team, Colts receiver dropped an awkward pass in the end zone with no time left)

97/98 season AFC Championship: Denver 24, PITTSBURGH 21

01/02 season AFC Championship: New England 24, PITTSBURGH 17

That's three homefield choke jobs under Cowher, and almost a fourth against a really mediocre Colts team in 96.

Cowher=Coward.

The Steelers always have one big weakness it seems. It used to be Kordell the Idiot. Now it is Inexperienced Ben.

I almost feel sorry for him, having to face a Belichick defense!

P.S. Pittsburgh beat Denver 35-24 at home in 97, then lost the AFC Championship game to them the next January.
 

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Steelers had a great year and may very well win sun.

But keep in mind 1 thing...the Pats are the champs and they went 14-2 this year and had to face everyones "A" game....nobody looks past the Pats because they got the 49ers the week after.

Steelers stomped the Pats fair and square at home the first time ending 21 in a row.Everyone wanted to be the ones to beat the Pats including the Jets who the Pats played the week before.Jets may not be a very smart team but they are a very tough team. Pats won 13-7 in a tough division game.
Pats were due for a bit of a letdown the stars were aligned and they got their ass kicked in Pitt.

The last 2 quality opponents the Pats faced in the last month they beat them like a baby seal.
Jets 23-7 away
Colts 20-3 at home
 

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Patriot...

You are showing wayyyyy too much homerism here, the Steelers dominated the pats the first time around by literally ramming the ball down the pats collective throats to the tune of over 200 rushing yards.

I keep hearing the same tired phrase "But Corey Dillon didn't play"....answer me this, was Dillon going to play both ways against Pittsburgh and help the defense stop the Steeler ground game?

Amazingly enough this game is setting up ALOT like the patriots game against the colts in that everyone including the media did nothing but hype up the colts to the point that the opening line went from pats -2.5 to a pk'em or pats +1 by game time.

What most over looked was the fact that the pats were the home team that defeated the colts on the same field earlier in the year just like these Steelers defeated the pats at Heinz field earlier in the year.

Its one thing to stop the passing game of a dome team that was playing outdoors and on grass and let your offense dismantle and control the clock against that same dome teams 28th ranked defense, but its an entirely different thing to go on the road and stop a dominant rushing attack that pounded your team for over 200 yards in the first go around...and especially since this same team ( Pittsburgh ) has the #1 ranked defense in the NFL.

Pittsburgh wins this game easily and afterwards the idiots writing for the Boston Globe will question Belichick and the patriots with regard to "How could they let a team with a rookie QB beat them twice in the same season?".

take care and good luck

Deb
 

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Deb: all great points, but Dillon not playing last time isn't getting any of the attention it deserves, IMO. Keep in mind, that with Dillon out in wk 8, the Pats only ran the ball 6 times. Brady had 43 pass attempts. With Dillon in (who has faced Pit at home many many times) they'll at least be able to mix up their game plan and control the clock better.

The stat that scares me the most is Pit's rushing attempts of 618 (league high) with only 8 fumbles lost in the regular season. If NE can't force them into any turnovers on the ground (gotta think they'll get at least one interception out of Ben) I don't see how they can win.

Tough game to call. I think I'll just stick to the total on this one.
 

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Eibon said:
Please tell me you weren't on the COLTS last Sunday!

Listen... the Chargers of this year had very little in common with the Browns of 86 or 87... except the head coach, who sure helped them piss away their playoff game. And your years are off, and missing one.

Here is a history lesson for everyone:

Steeler's AFC Championship history since 1980:

94/95 season <!--StartFragment -->AFC Championship: San Diego 17, PITTSBURGH 13

95/96 season <!--StartFragment -->AFC Championship: PITTSBURGH 20, Indianapolis 16 (barely scraped by in this one against a 9-7 team, Colts receiver dropped an awkward pass in the end zone with no time left)

97/98 season AFC Championship: Denver 24, PITTSBURGH 21

01/02 season AFC Championship: New England 24, PITTSBURGH 17

That's three homefield choke jobs under Cowher, and almost a fourth against a really mediocre Colts team in 96.

Cowher=Coward.

The Steelers always have one big weakness it seems. It used to be Kordell the Idiot. Now it is Inexperienced Ben.

I almost feel sorry for him, having to face a Belichick defense!

P.S. Pittsburgh beat Denver 35-24 at home in 97, then lost the AFC Championship game to them the next January.


No i had the Patriots, i was pushing them all week. I know the Patriots are a great team, so the question i have is, you cant see them losing this game? If thats the case than lay the 3. My point when I started this thread was that the Steelers had great value with +3. They are at home and beat them oce this year. Thats all im saying. I havent bet yet, I may still take the pats. Just once again i think the line is a bit off
 

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I am quite surprised not to see NE getting 2 or 3 points. Isn't home field worth anything anymore? It blew my mind to see NE +1 at home last week. I am finding this line to be strange also. I still like the pats. Playoff exp will be a hugh factor.
 

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All valid points deb, and to be honest with you I like Pitt. at home +3.

Mostly for the fact that I hate betting road favs.

The whole "X" factor in this is pedigree.

If it wasn't for Cowers twin lame brain coaching brotha from anotha motha,Herm Edward stupid ass coaching and his donkey kicker..Big Ben would be just another phenom that choked under the playoff spotlight,some guys got it some guys don't...jury is still out on Big Ben after last week and thats being generous. He had one pass run back for a td and another picked off during money time,hardly the stuff legends are made of.

If the pats get up over 10...game over.

In a game tied at 17 in the 4th quarter.Let me throw this match up at ya.

Belichick vs Cower
Brady vs Ben
Vinatieri vs Pete Gogolack or whatever the fxck his name is.

Pedigree my dear Pedigree.

Besides hows your offense supposed to score on the team that is 2nd in the league in pts allowed?

I believe the Pats ran into the team with the best defense last year..Carolina Panthers and put up 32 points.

Another thing about that first meeting with Pitt.Matt Light the starting left tackle went out early with a concussion Ty Law broke his foot.Along with Dillion being out. Along with 4 turnovers in 11 minutes.
All said, I agree 100% Pitt. kicked the snot out of them.

One other thing. the team that did beat the steelers this year,was beaten like a baby seal by the Pats. 27-3 or somthing.
 

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patriot..

I agree with you in that the pats have the pedigree of having won two of the past three Super Bowls and I personally can not understand how some can still think Manning is better than Brady...to me Brady is the best money QB in the game.

The patriots and Steelers are remarkably similar in alot of ways, however, other than the advantage the pats have with Brady under center over his counterpart Roethlisberger, I think the Steelers have better overall talent on both offense and defense.

Most media pundits are continually pounding home the point about Roethlisberger being a rookie QB and most are putting forth their opinion that the pats will defeat Pittsburgh based on how each team played last week.

Did Roethlisberger play badly in throwing 2 INT's last week against the jets including one that was returned for a TD? Sure he did, however, Brady tossed 2 INT's the first time around against Pittsburgh and he's not a rookie.

Two plays kept the jets in the game against Pittsburgh, a punt return for a TD and of course the INT that was returned for a TD, other than the 14 points the jets scored on those two plays Pittsburgh held them to 3 points.

What I am trying to point out is that the pats do in fact deserve to be the favorite over Pittsburgh, however, when considering the Steelers are 9-0 at home this year and have gone 5-0 ATS as a dog this season you would have to rate Pittsburgh's home field advantage over the pats as a standard FG....meaning that this line should be a "Pk'em"....thus the value by taking Pittsburgh.

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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Both great points by Patriot and Deb. We are really breaking this down. I def think N.E. is the right play here, but there isnt much value on them in -3. Thats alot of points, with 2 defenses like this.

It is very hard to go against proven winners. But on the other hand, Great teams win when they dont have their best, and the Steelers sure did find a way to pull one out sat night. You have to give them that. Ive seen the Patriots do i plenty of times over the years as well.
 

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