Pitchers Off Layoffs

[ChugsMcGee]

Chugs, BP's aren't that far apart, 4.78 vs 5.09. Holland's numbers weren't that great before he went on the DL, this game a must play on the Reds, imo. Straily has been $$ every game sans one after the All Star break.

~T~

My bullpen comment was based on a rating system used by a sabermetric service. Where 100 is an average bullpen, Cincy is currently a 101 (which has been lowering recently), Texas is at an 87.

As a point of reference, when the Yanks had the Big 3 they were at 60 something, which was far and away the best. It's not the end-all of rating systems, but a reference I use that should eliminate human BS and looks at the stats as a whole. But they currently have the Cubs BP rated best (which I've been pulling my hair out over, though my mind remembers 3 seemingly recent bad showings and the others not so much.) The worst are currently White Sox, Dbacks and Braves.

 

[mn fats]

My bullpen comment was based on a rating system used by a sabermetric service. Where 100 is an average bullpen, Cincy is currently a 101 (which has been lowering recently), Texas is at an 87...


Great info on bullpens - thanks!

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Well, full game gets there and 1st 5 pushes... but Holland pitches very well.

Rich Hill returns tommorrow in his first start since 7/17 and his first as a Dodger and at home. He's currently a -137 fav. Can get Cueto and the Giants at +127 (5d).

 

[Biz]

SF a play, especially at that price

 

[IAM4UK]

SF a play, especially at that price

Dont bet with your heart biz, our giants are in a bad funk right now. At lease they'll have the 4th easiest schedule last month of the season to secure that WC.

 

[tmader7]

Keep Salazar on the fade list, lol. That's merciless keeping him in right now. I've seen this movie once before......oh, last game against the Palehose, lol.

~T~

 

[blackchina]

Dont bet with your heart biz, our giants are in a bad funk right now. At lease they'll have the 4th easiest schedule last month of the season to secure that WC.

Need to breakout eventually

 

[Biz]

Dont bet with your heart biz, our giants are in a bad funk right now. At lease they'll have the 4th easiest schedule last month of the season to secure that WC.

Not a SF fan. I never bet with my heart.

Its a good spot to fade a pitcher that hasn't pitched in almost a month. Catching odds with Cueto is good value. Giants at some point will turn things around. Tomorrow a good spot to do that.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

OK ....records! As a note, I've included the Felix Hernandez and Homer Bailey returns (both of which were full game losses for the fade.) Both were mentioned in the thread but in passing after the game's conclusion. Included both as a record for the angle and not necessarily "the thread". Also included a "Hammered vs Well" column that focus on the performance of the returning pitcher, where "well" is a subjective quality start thru 5ish innings and "hammered" is the opposite, denoted as "Ham/Well". Obviously, many other factors in a game besides a returning pitcher.

Full Game - 4-6
1st 5 - 6-3-1
O/U - 7-3
TT of opposing team - 5-4-1
Ham/Well - 5-5

Again...returning tonight is Rich Hill sitting as a home fav down to -132. Frankly, I don't care if Rich Hill is returning or not...Cueto at over +120 is value everytime, IMO. Hill is a -138/+123 fav on the 1st 5. Over sitting at 7 -115 (opened at 7, up to 7.5 now back down to 7.) Giants TT at 3.5 +100.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

No, I didn't have exact lines for a unit metric but remember...all fades against the returner have been dogs or small favs, so should be sitting around the break even mark for full game.

 

[mn fats]

Thanks for the heads up, Chugs. And for all the great info!

 

[Biz]

Good stuff Chugs thx

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Well, Rich Hill pitched about as "well" as can be subjectively categorized in his return, scattering 5 hits over 6IP. One warm meatball served in the 4th by Cueto was the difference. A checkmark goes against the faders in every category:

Full Game - 4-7
1st 5 - 6-4-1
O/U - 7-4
TT O/U of opposing team - 5-5-1
Ham/Well - 5-6

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Lol...well...we have James Paxton returning today, in his 1st start since 8/7 as a -144 fav against the ChiSox. If you look at KingElevens 8/25 thread, I just got done slobbering over Paxton and explaining why I love to fade Anthony Ranaundo. I mulled the game and even Paxton stats one last time after I put my money down on the Mariners. I didn't realize initially that 8/7 was two+weeks ago (time flies!) O/U at 9.5. Chi Sox TT ~4 or 4.5 (not out yet.)

So...the play for this thread's angle is ChiSox ~+135. If you're riding the angle may I suggest 1st 5 (line not out yet) due to CWS bullpen metrics. But disclaimer, I'm on the Mariners (and have taken the wrong angle throughout this thread, so CWS bettors...you got that going for you.)

 

[blackchina]

Seattle bullpen has been weak too

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Seattle bullpen has been weak too

And they showed that last night! If you check post #81 it explains my BP comments.

Last night, faders get the win. Both overs hit and 1st 5 pushes. Paxton has an unlucky 1st inning, but otherwise pitches well. Win due to Mariners BP. Updated record:

Full Game - 5-7
1st 5 - 6-4-2
O/U - 8-4
TT O/U of opposing team - 6-5-1
Ham/Well - 6-6

Returning tonight is the BoSox knuckleballer Steven Wright at home as a large fav (currently -170 at 5d) versus the visiting Royals an Ian Kennedy. Last start was 8/5, coming off the DL from a shoulder issue.

Royals +160, 1st 5 (not out, be around FG) Over 9.5 +100, TT (not out but prob 5 with decent juice. )

 

[Biz]

Nice win for the angle last night.

KC the play tonight. Great job on the record keeping and pointing out the pitchers to fade.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

No prob. And I didn't mean to hijack your thread, Biz, just found it to be an interesting angle and it just kind of happened, lol. I tend to not be around as much on the weekend if anybody sees anything.

And listed the assumed TT for BoSox earlier by confusion...Royals TT sitting currently at 4 -105. And 9's appearing now for O/U.

 

[Biz]

Chugs,

You are always welcome in my threads, feel free to chime in when you feel like it.

Royals already raking Wright, 2 HRs and a 5-0 lead T1.

BTW, injuries to arms/elbows/shoulders, etc... seem to be a bit better than injuries to other body parts (feet, knees, etc..).

 

[tmader7]

Damn Biz, Wright's first inning easily trumped Salazar's, LOL.

~T~