Nothing new lately, still waiting on more developments. I was fortunate and got a bunch at .001 on Tuesday. It bounces around .001 - .004 regularly. This is one of those ATMs that always seems to give out free cash. I keep coming back for more. One positive development and she goes Boom.
Ohh Abi, you get all of my love ...
Abitibi lands $33-million ‘black liquor’ credit
Wednesday, 14 October 2009
By Duane Hicks , Staff writer
Under the federal government’s Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Program, AbitibiBowater has qualified for “black liquor” credits in the amount of $33,213,351 thanks to its mills in Fort Frances and Thunder Bay.
AbitibiBowater was among the 24 companies, representing 38 pulp and paper mills across Canada, that qualified for credits under the program, Natural Resources Canada announced this week.
Continued here: http://fftimes.com/node/228227
I'm patiently waiting and accumulating what I can under .15 ... this is going to be one of the easiest 10+ baggers I've ever been in. I intend to hold shares for years to come in my IRA. If this thing gets its sh!t back together after Chap 11, we could be looking at a $20+ stock in 3-5 years. Insanity.
Anyway, if you dont believe these Q stocks can actually ever be worth anything, check out Pilgrim's Pride (PGPDQ) ... it was .15 in December of last year and look where it's at now: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Abitibi lands $33-million ‘black liquor’ credit
Wednesday, 14 October 2009
By Duane Hicks , Staff writer
Under the federal government’s Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Program, AbitibiBowater has qualified for “black liquor” credits in the amount of $33,213,351 thanks to its mills in Fort Frances and Thunder Bay.
AbitibiBowater was among the 24 companies, representing 38 pulp and paper mills across Canada, that qualified for credits under the program, Natural Resources Canada announced this week.
Continued here: http://fftimes.com/node/228227
I'm patiently waiting and accumulating what I can under .15 ... this is going to be one of the easiest 10+ baggers I've ever been in. I intend to hold shares for years to come in my IRA. If this thing gets its sh!t back together after Chap 11, we could be looking at a $20+ stock in 3-5 years. Insanity.
Anyway, if you dont believe these Q stocks can actually ever be worth anything, check out Pilgrim's Pride (PGPDQ) ... it was .15 in December of last year and look where it's at now: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
I might be wrong on this but normally when a Canadian company like Abitibi goes into Chapter 11, the shares end up worthless and new shares are issued to the debt/stakeholders as per the restructuring agreements. That is what happened with Air Canada, Laidlaw, Stelco, and a number of other companies and I don't see why it would be different here. I haven't read the entire thread but is there a reason why this time the shareholders will end up with a stake in the restructured company?
Well, we've never had this tight of a bid/ask (.164 x .165). I think she's primed to take off. Now we need that damn hydro-dam deal PRd and we're off. I see 100% days ahead. Might be the last chance to load the boat below .20. But I dont know anything others do not, lol.
Buy the ticket, take the ride. : )
OK, back to your Q. So, the main thing to look at when a company is Assets VS Liabilities. You can find Abi's latest MOR (monthly operating report) here: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393066/000139306609000051/0001393066-09-000051-index.htm
In that report, you will see that Abi's Assets far outweight Liabilities. When this is the case, an equity committee can be formed. An EC looks out for shareholders and wants to keep them in tact. I cant know for certain commons wont be cancelled ... all I can tell you is that chances are highly unlike considering the circumstances and that Abi is more than likely going to be in the black/green on their next MOR. With that said, the risk/reward is staggering and I will take my chances. Recent companies in a similar situation as Abi are: SSCCQ and CEMJQ. Both have had monster runs.
What's better about Abi is that their O/S is way less than either of those mentioned above. Meaning, the move upward is going to be much more dramatic. And just think what it would be like in a year or two from now when we're still holding a couple hundred shares of a $10+ stock that's paying a dividend around the price of what we paid for the price of one share. I'll be laughing all the way to the bank. I usually dont buy BK stocks, but this is one that i've thrown my investing books out the window and let my gut & brain do the thinking, rather than listening to the experts.
Any broker you talk to will tell you this stock is, or will be, worthless. But they dont know anything, they're just number crunchers that enter numbers and tickers into their system and the rest is history (ie: your order gets placed). So, if you've had a bad experience investing in Canadian BK companies, steer clear. I, however, have loaded as many shares as I'd like to have and will be holding for $1+
ABWTQ -- more love for Abi:
From the House -- John Rafferty MP
Written by John Rafferty MP
Friday, 16 October 2009 11:54
John Rafferty MPWeek of October 16 to October 23, 2009.
The first federal dollars for the pulp and paper industry in some time have finally been approved by the government and are ready to flow. Word of this assistance came with the announcement that AbitibiBowater is eligible for up to $33 million in funds related to its mill operations in Fort Frances and Thunder Bay. This is without question good news for that company, but this onetime payment will do very little to ensure that these mills are able to compete on equal footing against their heavily subsidized US counterparts, and will do nothing to protect local jobs or save pensions for workers affected by bankruptcies in the forestry sector.
First things first though, it must be said that this federal government investment is positive and most welcomed development. The $33 million provided to AbitibiBowater should help local plants become more efficient, which will reduce their operating costs in the long run. This is good news and credit is due to the Minister for taking a first, albeit modest, step in the right direction. However, given the scale and nature of the problems facing the pulp and paper industry this step must be considered the first and will only make a difference to our local mills and companies if other steps follow.
The money provided to AbitibiBowater as a result of its local operations is but a small share of the $1 billion Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Fund. This fund, and the announced payment of $33 million to AbitibiBowater for its two areas mills, has been packaged and sold by the Harper government as an effective counter to the US ‘Black Liquor’ subsidy. However, this onetime tax credit will not offset the soon to be permanent price advantage enjoyed by US based mills benefitting from the Black Liquor subsidy. In reality, there are just two policy options for the Canadian government if it wishes to negate this unfair trade advantage; it must negotiate with the US government to end the Black Liquor subsidy, or it must match that subsidy for Canadian mills. Only these policies will end the unfair advantage enjoyed by US producers and neither would violate the NAFTA or the Softwood Lumber Agreement.
Another serious problem is that this onetime tax credit is tied to Canadian companies investing their own money into making their operations more efficient. Many Canadian producers are in various stages of bankruptcy, so where this company money will come from is unknown at best. It may end up increasing the short term debt of these companies and could interfere with the repayment of monies owed to creditors including small local suppliers, workers, and past workers who may lose all or part of their pensions in restructuring processes. I also find it troubling that there is also no stipulation that will require AbitibiBowater to keep our local mills open once the improvements have been made and they have cashed their government cheque.
Since this federal money is being packaged and sold as our government’s response to the US Black Liquor subsidy, you may be asking, ‘how much do US mill owners get from their government, and what is the size of their price advantage over Canadian mill owners? Well, International Paper (IP) is the largest US producer and is nearly double the size of AbitibiBowater. IP received a cheque last year for $71 million to cover their tax rebate for the month of November alone, and hauled in about $1.06 billion from the US government for the entire 2009 fiscal year. Equity Research Associates, a private forestry industry research firm based in British Columbia, estimates that US mills enjoy a 25 percent price advantage over Canadian producers as a result of the Black Liquor subsidy. That is a huge advantage and it will not be negated by this federal program.
To put the scale of the problem for the Canadian industry in perspective, if the Conservative government were to give AbitibiBowater the same level of assistance that International Paper receives from the US government then it would need to write a $50 million cheque to that company each and every month, and do so without insisting that the company invest any money in its own plants at the same time. Add matching federal cheques for Domtar, Cascades, Tembec, and Canfor among others and you can plainly see that the onetime $1 billion aid package that is being offered by the Conservative government is about half of what is needed for the Canadian Industry this year alone, and would need to be matched each and every year going forward to truly level the playing field for Canadian mills like those in Thunder Bay and Fort Frances.
While investment in the pulp and paper sector is always welcome, this federal program will not protect local jobs and pensions and will not end the 25 percent price advantage the Black Liquor regime provides to US producers. The money made available this week is a step forward and will no doubt help the pulp and paper industry in the long term, but there will be no mills left to help if our federal government does not take action to eliminate the market distortion created by the US Black Liquor subsidy, and fast.
From the House -- John Rafferty MP
Written by John Rafferty MP
Friday, 16 October 2009 11:54
John Rafferty MPWeek of October 16 to October 23, 2009.
The first federal dollars for the pulp and paper industry in some time have finally been approved by the government and are ready to flow. Word of this assistance came with the announcement that AbitibiBowater is eligible for up to $33 million in funds related to its mill operations in Fort Frances and Thunder Bay. This is without question good news for that company, but this onetime payment will do very little to ensure that these mills are able to compete on equal footing against their heavily subsidized US counterparts, and will do nothing to protect local jobs or save pensions for workers affected by bankruptcies in the forestry sector.
First things first though, it must be said that this federal government investment is positive and most welcomed development. The $33 million provided to AbitibiBowater should help local plants become more efficient, which will reduce their operating costs in the long run. This is good news and credit is due to the Minister for taking a first, albeit modest, step in the right direction. However, given the scale and nature of the problems facing the pulp and paper industry this step must be considered the first and will only make a difference to our local mills and companies if other steps follow.
The money provided to AbitibiBowater as a result of its local operations is but a small share of the $1 billion Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Fund. This fund, and the announced payment of $33 million to AbitibiBowater for its two areas mills, has been packaged and sold by the Harper government as an effective counter to the US ‘Black Liquor’ subsidy. However, this onetime tax credit will not offset the soon to be permanent price advantage enjoyed by US based mills benefitting from the Black Liquor subsidy. In reality, there are just two policy options for the Canadian government if it wishes to negate this unfair trade advantage; it must negotiate with the US government to end the Black Liquor subsidy, or it must match that subsidy for Canadian mills. Only these policies will end the unfair advantage enjoyed by US producers and neither would violate the NAFTA or the Softwood Lumber Agreement.
Another serious problem is that this onetime tax credit is tied to Canadian companies investing their own money into making their operations more efficient. Many Canadian producers are in various stages of bankruptcy, so where this company money will come from is unknown at best. It may end up increasing the short term debt of these companies and could interfere with the repayment of monies owed to creditors including small local suppliers, workers, and past workers who may lose all or part of their pensions in restructuring processes. I also find it troubling that there is also no stipulation that will require AbitibiBowater to keep our local mills open once the improvements have been made and they have cashed their government cheque.
Since this federal money is being packaged and sold as our government’s response to the US Black Liquor subsidy, you may be asking, ‘how much do US mill owners get from their government, and what is the size of their price advantage over Canadian mill owners? Well, International Paper (IP) is the largest US producer and is nearly double the size of AbitibiBowater. IP received a cheque last year for $71 million to cover their tax rebate for the month of November alone, and hauled in about $1.06 billion from the US government for the entire 2009 fiscal year. Equity Research Associates, a private forestry industry research firm based in British Columbia, estimates that US mills enjoy a 25 percent price advantage over Canadian producers as a result of the Black Liquor subsidy. That is a huge advantage and it will not be negated by this federal program.
To put the scale of the problem for the Canadian industry in perspective, if the Conservative government were to give AbitibiBowater the same level of assistance that International Paper receives from the US government then it would need to write a $50 million cheque to that company each and every month, and do so without insisting that the company invest any money in its own plants at the same time. Add matching federal cheques for Domtar, Cascades, Tembec, and Canfor among others and you can plainly see that the onetime $1 billion aid package that is being offered by the Conservative government is about half of what is needed for the Canadian Industry this year alone, and would need to be matched each and every year going forward to truly level the playing field for Canadian mills like those in Thunder Bay and Fort Frances.
While investment in the pulp and paper sector is always welcome, this federal program will not protect local jobs and pensions and will not end the 25 percent price advantage the Black Liquor regime provides to US producers. The money made available this week is a step forward and will no doubt help the pulp and paper industry in the long term, but there will be no mills left to help if our federal government does not take action to eliminate the market distortion created by the US Black Liquor subsidy, and fast.
kuwl, i need to hear it, tell me im supposed to hold on theres more to come.... abwtq up 100%..!!!!@)
Almost finished that way, eh? Nice close regardless. Got some resistance here in the mid-high .20s. Last point of resistance I see is a small hurdle at .30. We've got a huge gap to fill on up to .50, mostly an air pocket with some small-time profit-takers in that range would be expected. I still see $1+ by January 2010. This is just the beginning. This will hit so many radars/screeners this weekend we'll likely gap up on Monday. Not certain, though.
This float is so tight and I'm holding my shares for at least $1, the MMs will be scrambling next week. Expect a few shakes, a few scares along the way. Use these as your chance to grab extra trading shares for easy doubles is all I can recommend.
Abi has awoken from hibernation. She's groggy and not gonna be happy how low her PPS is. She'll be putting on her dancin' shoes this weekend so we can skate on up and close that gap to .50 next week. I finally feel rewarded after holding this for 2+ months with no movement (other than mostly downwards, lol). Thought she was gonna bleed me to death, but now you see the risk/reward was worth the wait. Those that didnt hold, have no fear this is still a great entry point. Now, it's time to hang the shorts out to dry
^<<^ ~~:<<
FYI, there were over 2M shorts out there still. They're gonna help run this sucker higher as they scramble to cover.
Ohh sh!t, you shouldnt mention that here ... lol, jk
THE FLOAT
A/S = Authorized Shares -- how many shares the company has authorized to sell to the public.
O/S = Outstanding Shares -- how many shares are publicly traded.
Restricted Shares -- shares that are held by insiders that cannot be bought or sold without special permission by the SEC.
You get the FLOAT by minusing restricted shares from O/S. Now, you can also use other sources to determine if institutions own any large sum of shares. You also minus this number from the number you got above. But, Investopedia sums it up best:
Float: "refers to a company's shares that are freely bought and sold without restrictions in the public."
Here's a link to the definitions of all this:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/030703.asp
---Investopedia works wonders if you dont understand something I write here
ABWTQ Video Chart Analysis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59zLqj4ST-g
Looking good. I guess that resistance I spoke of earlier is actually at .31 and not .30 -- whoops! Everyone talks about CEMJQ. Abi is gonna get that recognition soon IMO. Gotta love that low float.
Looks like this one is a lock ...$*)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59zLqj4ST-g
Looking good. I guess that resistance I spoke of earlier is actually at .31 and not .30 -- whoops! Everyone talks about CEMJQ. Abi is gonna get that recognition soon IMO. Gotta love that low float.
Looks like this one is a lock ...$*)
check out www.shortsqueeze.com....also, your brokerage should offer an option when you run a screen to look for % of stocks shorted to float and whatnot.....hope kuwlness don't mind me hopping in here
