ABWTQ
Abitibi under siege
By Giuseppe Valiante, Financial PostOctober 8, 2009 7:35 AM
AbitibiBowater Inc. , Canada's largest forest-products company, has posted a message aimed at reassuring anxious shareholders and employees as it works to emerge from bankruptcy protection: "If history is a guide, it is worth noting that one of our predecessor companies -- Abitibi -- filed for bankruptcy during the Great Depression," say Richard Evans, chairman, and David J. Paterson, president and chief executive. "The company reemerged and prospered over the many following decades."
If and how AbitibiBowater succeeds in its attempts to restructure about $6.5-billion of debt ($1.5-billion of which is secured), a process that began in earnest in mid-April, the industry in which it will operate will be far different from that of the 1940s, when a recovering post-war economy was strong and vibrant.
Today, the demand for many of the company's products such as newsprint, which represents 48% of sales, is in decline and its privileged logging rights to commercial forests are being threatened or revoked entirely. Meanwhile, environmental activists are trying to tarnish its reputation by claiming the company is not sufficiently environmentally friendly, and pressure is growing for the industry to create new uses for wood products such as biomass and biochemicals, ventures that are high-risk and require billions of dollars of investment.
Exactly what Abitibi, and Canada's forest sector in general, will look like once it emerges from the post-recession economy is open for debate. Do forest companies transform their core business from producing wood, pulp and paper to making bio-fuels and bio-chemicals, or do they integrate biofuels into their business while maintaining wood and pulp as the principal drivers?
AbitibiBowater, based in Delaware with its world headquarters in Montreal, employs about 8,300 people in Canada out of its total workforce of 12,000. Soon after Montreal's Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. and South Carolina's Bowater Inc. merged in 2007 to create North America's third-largest forest product company, the financial crisis tightened access to financing and the subsequent precipitous decline in newsprint threw AbitibiBowater into financial chaos. Company executives have not speculated as to how long it will take to get out of from under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act in Canada and Chapter 11 in the United States.
For many, the answer to the problems plaguing Abitibi and much of the rest of the industry is a radical overhaul.
Paul Stuart, a former industry consultant and a one-time advisor to AbitibiBowater who is also a chemical engineer, is among those who say the sector must transform its core business away from wood products to bio-energy and bio-products or die.
Further consolidation in the industry as well as increased demand for wood when the U.S. housing market improves will provide insufficient returns for the industry, said Mr. Stuart, who has consulted at more than 70 Canadian and international pulp-and-paper mills on environmental and process issues, and is now the chair in engineering design at Polytechnique Montreal.
"[AbitibiBowater] is looking down the barrel of a gun," he said. "But on the table before them now is an alignment of things, an opportunity to capitalize and transform their companies and have a better business."
He added that AbitibiBowater can probably successfully make the jump into the bio-economy because its mills are concentrated in regions such as Quebec and Ontario, and it has substantial cutting rights in these regions. "There is a landscape that has been set here that is absolutely fantastic," said Mr Stuart, who recently spent his sabbatical year with Abitibi exploring biorefinery opportunities.
But for such a transformation to be a success, federal, provincial and industry leaders must also show leadership, he said. On the federal level, Ottawa needs to prepare a clear and consistent plan for the reduction of CO2 emissions so companies can adjust.
"Industry is fine with whatever the rules are, I think. So long as they know what they are and can make a business plan to meet them without ambiguity," said Mr. Stuart.
Provincial politicians, especially in Quebec, need to force the hand of the industry into remodeling. "They need tough love," said Mr. Stuart. "They should say 'We're not going to throw good money away after bad.' Change your model to become competitive."
Additionally, governments need to make the cost of business cheaper. Due to regulation, long grow times and the historical way that cutting rights are awarded, fibre costs in Quebec are among the highest in North America.
"The provinces need to recognize the value of the forestry industry, and recognize the financial dilemma of the companies and the risks associated with corporate transformation," said Mr. Stuart. "That might mean propping up the mills in order to reap the benefits from a forest industry that is sustainable into the longer term, and it might be propping up AbitibiBowater."
Avrim Lazar, president and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada and chairman of the Advisory Committee on Paper and Wood Products for the United Nations, agrees the future of bio-energy and bio-products is strong, but so is the future of wood, pulp and paper.
"[Paul Stuart] is right, but when people say you've got to change from this to that, they're wrong. You've got to integrate this into that," Mr. Lazar said.
He said his organization is researching the technology and the future of bio-products and "all the preliminary indications are that there is going to be a very robust bio-energy and bio-product market coming out of the forest, but it's going to be integrated into the wood, pulp and paper industry instead of replacing it.
"Wood demand is going to come back, and come back strong," he said. "Americans are still going to build their houses out of wood, pulp demand will go up and paper demand offshore will go up."
He said AbitibiBowater sells 45% of its products offshore. "Generally speaking, that's the trend for the whole forest industry. The North American and European market for paper will never return to what it was, but the paper market of the newly industrializing countries in South America and Asia will return."
"Will we see healthy pulp and paper companies that don't have bio-products? I don't think so. Will we see healthy bio-fuel companies, which use wood without pulp and paper? Equally unlikely."
Mr. Stuart and Mr. Lazar do agree that for the sector to produce anything at all, government must play a role.
"Eighty per cent of the mills are captive to single-line railways who give bad service and overcharge because they have monopoly power," said Mr. Lazar. "That's a government issue, not a railway issue."
Moreover, countries such as Canada and Russia will benefit from moves by competitors such as Brazil, which Mr. Lazar said will likely begin growing sugar cane instead of trees to meet the growing world biofuel demand. But government subsidies in Canada for green transformation must be equal or close to those of United States and Europe if the Canadian sector is to compete.
"Americans and Europeans are extremely aggressive in supporting the green transformation of their industries. If our governments don't match their governments' green subsidies, we are going to be in big trouble," Mr. Lazar said.
For AbitibiBowater, there are more pressing needs at the moment than considering the potential of bio-mass.
Aside from recently idling 1.3 million tonnes of capacity, cancelling employee bonuses for 2008 and 2009, as well as reducing corporate overhead by 25%, AbitibiBowater has to deal with billions in debt, renegotiate labour agreements with its employees, 77% of whom are unionized, and address a pension deficit for Canadian employees that stood at $1.3-billion before markets picked up a couple of months ago.
AbitibiBowater is "certainly considering those possibilities as we look to the future," said Seth Kursman, the company's vice-president, public affairs, sustainability and environment, referring to the move toward bio-fuels and bio-products. "We are looking to extract value throughout all aspects of our process going forward."
And while Mr. Kursman won't divulge details, he hinted that the company will most likely not be abandoning its traditional products.
"We have accomplished a lot," Mr. Kursman said. "We had to make some tough decisions, we have a great deal more that needs to be done before we emerge. But when we emerge ... we believe we can be leaner, and a much stronger company in the future."
---------
$65.7B
227
$405M
Total revenues generated by the forest-products industry
Number of mills that were closed between 2003 and 2008
Research and development expenditures from the wood and paper sectors
© Copyright (c) National Post