After a Thursday to forget, getting back on the wagon this morning...Another Giant/Goliath cup match up in the (Eng) FA Cup today with Man Utd at Cambridge...Premiership vs League 2 (First Division vs Fourth Division for you old-timers out there 
)....disparity in club/team quality doesn't get much bigger than this within the full time professional ranks and so I have to look to Man Utd to do the business in the case.
I am not discounting Cambridge completely, the FA Cup is full of cinderella stories and Cambridge have actually been in good form recently (including beating a decent Newport team 4-0 last time out). Cambridge are the home team - Man Utd is not used to playing on smaller, close-quarter grounds and so this can have an impact. Cambridge has gotten to this round by beating teams within their division, taking a replay to beat lower-placed Mansfield and then beating Luton 2-1, so their presence in the 3rd round doesn't mean they are a great team or have beaten significantly better teams. The other factor to consider is the strength of the Man Utd team that is going to be announced as they could easily rotate in some bench players that would allow them enough to win, but might make goal differences more difficult to predict. Overall I am looking at Man Utd to win (currently at ~ $1.20) but would like to add a little value. A clean sheet option is possible as ManU's defense is good enough to keep clean sheets against quality EPL teams such as Liverpool and Tottenham and they can certainly score with 16 goals in their last 10 and only failing to score one time (0-0 draw at Tottenham).
The best comparison we have at this point is Man Utd's 2-0 win at Yeovil in the last round. Yeovil is one division above Cambridge, but arguably Yeovil is having a very poor season, but may be considered slightly better or equal in quality to Cambridge. Altogether I put Man Utd as a two goal winner which makes the Asian Handicaps kind of tough in this match up and the ML is a little chalkier than I would like, so I am going to look to build value through EH/AH bets:
European Handicap (+1): Man Utd (-1.5) @ $1.50
Matchbet: Man Utd & Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.29 / Man Utd & Total Goals OVER 2.5 @ 1.60
Officially:
0.75 Unit on Man Utd (-1.5) @ $1.50
0.75 Unit on Man Utd and Total Goals over 2.5 @ $1.60
Overall risking 1.5 units to win 0.83 (net $1.55, much better than $1.20). Splitting my bets this way on the off chance that Cambridge scores and Man Utd fields a slightly lesser starting lineup (not yet announced) which limits goal scoring (of course they will score 6 now and I will be peeved).
Looking for a bounce back Friday...
Oz
)....disparity in club/team quality doesn't get much bigger than this within the full time professional ranks and so I have to look to Man Utd to do the business in the case.I am not discounting Cambridge completely, the FA Cup is full of cinderella stories and Cambridge have actually been in good form recently (including beating a decent Newport team 4-0 last time out). Cambridge are the home team - Man Utd is not used to playing on smaller, close-quarter grounds and so this can have an impact. Cambridge has gotten to this round by beating teams within their division, taking a replay to beat lower-placed Mansfield and then beating Luton 2-1, so their presence in the 3rd round doesn't mean they are a great team or have beaten significantly better teams. The other factor to consider is the strength of the Man Utd team that is going to be announced as they could easily rotate in some bench players that would allow them enough to win, but might make goal differences more difficult to predict. Overall I am looking at Man Utd to win (currently at ~ $1.20) but would like to add a little value. A clean sheet option is possible as ManU's defense is good enough to keep clean sheets against quality EPL teams such as Liverpool and Tottenham and they can certainly score with 16 goals in their last 10 and only failing to score one time (0-0 draw at Tottenham).
The best comparison we have at this point is Man Utd's 2-0 win at Yeovil in the last round. Yeovil is one division above Cambridge, but arguably Yeovil is having a very poor season, but may be considered slightly better or equal in quality to Cambridge. Altogether I put Man Utd as a two goal winner which makes the Asian Handicaps kind of tough in this match up and the ML is a little chalkier than I would like, so I am going to look to build value through EH/AH bets:
European Handicap (+1): Man Utd (-1.5) @ $1.50
Matchbet: Man Utd & Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.29 / Man Utd & Total Goals OVER 2.5 @ 1.60
Officially:
0.75 Unit on Man Utd (-1.5) @ $1.50
0.75 Unit on Man Utd and Total Goals over 2.5 @ $1.60
Overall risking 1.5 units to win 0.83 (net $1.55, much better than $1.20). Splitting my bets this way on the off chance that Cambridge scores and Man Utd fields a slightly lesser starting lineup (not yet announced) which limits goal scoring (of course they will score 6 now and I will be peeved).
Looking for a bounce back Friday...
Oz
Well, Friday continued Thursday's torried pace...0-5 and -5 units in the process, another game where a team dominated, but couldn't score (Man Utd). St Johnston had the lead but couldn't keep it and Japan simply let down in the end.
Saturday's plays coming right up...I had just climbed out of last weekend's hole too....shoot...
Overall: 19-25 and -8.9 units (58.0 units/-15.3% ROI)
Oz
Saturday's plays coming right up...I had just climbed out of last weekend's hole too....shoot...
Overall: 19-25 and -8.9 units (58.0 units/-15.3% ROI)
Oz
Not sure what happened in the FA Cup today, but it was upset central with Man City, Southampton, Tottenham AND Chelsea all losing straight up (and Man Utd only managed a 0-0 draw the day before)
Eng FACup: 4 units on Chelsea AH(-1.5) @ $1.45 (go a little greedy on this one and paid the price)
Eng Lg2: 2 units on Northampton/Newport DRAW @ $3.38
Fra Lg1: 2 units on Bastia/Bordeaux DRAW @ $3.20
Today: 1-2 and -1.6 units.
Overall: 20-26 and -9.5 units (66.0 units/-14.4% ROI)
Oz
Eng FACup: 4 units on Chelsea AH(-1.5) @ $1.45 (go a little greedy on this one and paid the price)
Eng Lg2: 2 units on Northampton/Newport DRAW @ $3.38
Fra Lg1: 2 units on Bastia/Bordeaux DRAW @ $3.20
Today: 1-2 and -1.6 units.
Overall: 20-26 and -9.5 units (66.0 units/-14.4% ROI)
Oz
1/25 Plays:
Fre1: 1 unit on Matchbet of Lyon and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63 (also in my Synthetic MLs)
It SerA: 2 units on Matchbet of Juventus and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.35
Por Prim: 1 Unit on Sporting (SP) Lisbon as the only team to score @ $1.76
Tuk Sup: 1 Unit on Matchbet of Galatasaray and OVER (1.5) @ $1.60
Good luck!
Oz
Fre1: 1 unit on Matchbet of Lyon and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63 (also in my Synthetic MLs)
It SerA: 2 units on Matchbet of Juventus and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.35
Por Prim: 1 Unit on Sporting (SP) Lisbon as the only team to score @ $1.76
Tuk Sup: 1 Unit on Matchbet of Galatasaray and OVER (1.5) @ $1.60
Good luck!
Oz
1/25 Plays:
Fre1: 1 unit on Matchbet of Lyon and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63 (also in my Synthetic MLs)
It SerA: 2 units on Matchbet of Juventus and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.35
Por Prim: 1 Unit on Sporting (SP) Lisbon as the only team to score @ $1.76
Tuk Sup: 1 Unit on Matchbet of Galatasaray and OVER (1.5) @ $1.60
Today: 4-0 and +2.69 units.
Overall: 24-26 and -6.81 units (71.0 units/-9.6% ROI)
Oz
Fre1: 1 unit on Matchbet of Lyon and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63 (also in my Synthetic MLs)
It SerA: 2 units on Matchbet of Juventus and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.35
Por Prim: 1 Unit on Sporting (SP) Lisbon as the only team to score @ $1.76
Tuk Sup: 1 Unit on Matchbet of Galatasaray and OVER (1.5) @ $1.60
Today: 4-0 and +2.69 units.
Overall: 24-26 and -6.81 units (71.0 units/-9.6% ROI)
Oz
Some late/overnight plays:
1 Unit on Australia (-1) (Asian Cup) @ $1.76
1 Unit on El Daklyeh to WIN (Egypt Prem) @ $1.47 (if you can find a (-1/-1.5)AH that would be worth a look too)
1 Unit on Matchbet Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel Cup) and OVER (1.5) @ $1.42
0.5 Unit on Hayes to WIN (Eng Conf S) @ $4.43
Will probably have a couple to add later when complete/better odds come out.
Best
Oz
1 Unit on Australia (-1) (Asian Cup) @ $1.76
1 Unit on El Daklyeh to WIN (Egypt Prem) @ $1.47 (if you can find a (-1/-1.5)AH that would be worth a look too)
1 Unit on Matchbet Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel Cup) and OVER (1.5) @ $1.42
0.5 Unit on Hayes to WIN (Eng Conf S) @ $4.43
Will probably have a couple to add later when complete/better odds come out.
Best
Oz
1 Unit on Australia (-1) (Asian Cup) @ $1.76
1 Unit on El Daklyeh to WIN (Egypt Prem) @ $1.47 (if you can find a (-1/-1.5)AH that would be worth a look too)
1 Unit on Matchbet Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel Cup) and OVER (1.5) @ $1.42
2 Units on Ventspils (-1.5) @ $1.29
1 unit on Linfield to win (N Ireland Prem) @ $1.43
Late goal sank the Egypt line and Maccabi could only win 1-0, Linfield didn't perform as well as expected. Not a great day, 2-3 and -1.66units.
Overall: 29-31 and -8.73 units (83.0 units/-10.5% ROI)
Oz
1 Unit on El Daklyeh to WIN (Egypt Prem) @ $1.47 (if you can find a (-1/-1.5)AH that would be worth a look too)
1 Unit on Matchbet Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israel Cup) and OVER (1.5) @ $1.42
2 Units on Ventspils (-1.5) @ $1.29
1 unit on Linfield to win (N Ireland Prem) @ $1.43
Late goal sank the Egypt line and Maccabi could only win 1-0, Linfield didn't perform as well as expected. Not a great day, 2-3 and -1.66units.
Overall: 29-31 and -8.73 units (83.0 units/-10.5% ROI)
Oz
