OzSoccer

[OzCap]

Spent most of today getting geared up for Saturday using combination of filters and fundamental analysis for a very full card Saturday. Will also be throwing in a handful of synthetic MLs when I get the chance to finish running perms.

1 Unit
Scot Prem: Hamilton WIN @ $7.94

1.5 Units
Fre1: Lens WIN @ $4.54
Eng Prem: Aston Villa WIN @ $4.67
Eng Prem: QPR WIN @ $5.61
Eng Prem: Swansea WIN @ $6.93
Eng Prem: Burnley/Crystal Palace DRAW @ $3.21
Eng Lg1: Gillingham/Coventry DRAW @ $3.38
Eng Champ: Rotherham WIN @ $4.45
Eng Conf S: Sutton Utd WIN @ $4.35
Span LaLiga: Espanyol/Celta Vigo DRAW @ $3.36

2 Units
Eng Lg1: Notts Cty/Crewe UNDER 2.5 @ $1.971
Eng Lg2: Dag Redbridge WIN @ $4.64

3 Units
Eng Champ: Millwall/Ipswich DRAW @ $3.43
Eng Lg1: Yeovil/Bradford DRAW @ $3.35
Eng Lg2: Portsmouth/Burton DRAW @ $3.32

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

A little taster before tomorrow fully rolls in...another Asian Cup look and this time with those fantastic Socceroos!

Tonight's game between Australia and S Korea is really all about group honours and getting the easier match up in the next round. Either one of these teams has the potential to make it to the Semi-finals, although on the basis of early play I have to admit that Australia look like a great bet to be finalists. Australia has the goal difference advantage and so a win or a draw is sufficient for them to win the group, S Korea needs a win so they go top on points.

How does this pan out. Australia is likely to play a slightly more defensive-minded midfielder set, but ultimately I don't think they will make any wholesale changes. Most likely they will rest players at halftime/2nd third of the game depending on scorelines etc... Goal tally is difficult to judge here as S Korea hasn't shown much from their frontline in the opening games (doing just enough to get 1-0 wins on both occasions), but Australia has clearly showed that a Cahill-led forward attack can produce a lot of goals - but that will be tempered with what Australia needs to do in order to win the group.

I expect Australia to come out on the offensive, hoping to get an odd goal early and then probably drop into a holding midfield play, perhaps with sub to help this strategy. Australia is the more likely team to score and S Korea doesn't need to go all out and I don't expect them to either, so this won't be a wide open game due to necessity. I think Australia will nick this one, or settle for the draw, but after their initial play I suspect the win is more likely.

Going with:

1 unit on Australia AH(-0.25) @ $1.76 (pushing half on the draw reduces the risk from the draw a little bit)
0.5 units on Match Total Goals (2-3) @ $2.03

Also adding two futures bets:

To win Asian Cup:
1 Unit on Japan @ $2.90
1 Unit on Australia @ $3.20

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Results for Saturday:

1 Unit
Scot Prem: Hamilton WIN @ $7.94

1.5 Units
Fre1: Lens WIN @ $4.54
Eng Prem: Aston Villa WIN @ $4.67
Eng Prem: QPR WIN @ $5.61
Eng Prem: Swansea WIN @ $6.93
Eng Prem: Burnley/Crystal Palace DRAW @ $3.21
Eng Lg1: Gillingham/Coventry DRAW @ $3.38
Eng Champ: Rotherham WIN @ $4.45
Eng Conf S: Sutton Utd WIN @ $4.35
Span LaLiga: Espanyol/Celta Vigo DRAW @ $3.36

2 Units
Eng Lg1: Notts Cty/Crewe UNDER 2.5 @ $1.971
Eng Lg2: Dag Redbridge WIN @ $4.64

3 Units
Eng Champ: Millwall/Ipswich DRAW @ $3.43
Eng Lg1: Yeovil/Bradford DRAW @ $3.35
Eng Lg2: Portsmouth/Burton DRAW @ $3.32

Overall a pretty disappointing set of results, going 2-13 and -15.5 units lost on 27.5 units wagered...got some last minute goals that upended the Burnley and Espanyol draws would have made a big difference. Sorry, typically expect to come out on top, but soccer is like hockey in the fact that goals are random events and can make it even the best handicapping look bad

0-2 in the Aussie game to to be an addition -1.5 units, really expected a better performance from them.

2-15 on the day, -17 units.
Overall: 11-16 and -8.57 units (36.5 units/-23.5% ROI)

Tomorrow's games to come soon.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

For tomorrow:
(Holland Ere Div) 1.5 units on Utrecht/Herenveen DRAW @ $3.74
(Portugal) 1.5 Units on Sporting to WIN @ $1.41

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

1-1 on the day and -0.89 units as Utrecht/Herenveen ended 1-2, losing the bigger bet.

Overall: 12-17 and -9.46 units (39.5 units/-23.9% ROI)

Playing statistics on these plays, I know they will come through eventually.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Overnight play (Asian Cup). Iran/UAE is a situational play, I think this will be an open game and UAE should be able to score against an otherwise stingy Iranian defense as I believe Iran will try to open this up to score as playing for a draw/loss will leave them in second place and (most likely) playing Japan in the next round, they will definitely want to play Group D runner up as they will a significantly weaker team.

1 unit on Total Goals OVER AH(1.75) @ $1.66

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

An unusual league/cup....Latvia League Cup. Skonto Riga should beat Fk Daugava Riga handily after thumping the same opposition in November - granted this is now the spring, new tournament etc...but not a lot has changed for these two clubs and Skonto is on a 7 game winning run against Daugava. They ended last year at opposite ends of the table and the GD differences in this league are mind-boggling...not putting a lot on a huge win here, but expect Skonto to do the business.

1 unit on Matchbet of Skonto to win & Over 1.5 goals @ $1.34

Reasonable to expect 3-4 goals in this match, so if you are going to bet on Skonto, you may as well play the 1.5 goal matchbet to improve the return.

Oz

 

[Vegaobscura]

Odd, I can't find the Skonto game anywhere..hno:

 

[OzCap]

Overall a 1-1 night with Iran/UAE really not playing an open game, but Iran came through as winners, not a surprise, just expected more goals. Skonto won 2-0 and at least salvaged some of the evening's bets. 1-1 and -0.66 units.

Overall: 13-18 and -10.12 units (41.5 units/-24.4% ROI)

 

[OzCap]

Vega, not sure what books you use, but if you are American Res you should look 5Dimes (pre-match betting plus). The game finished about 3-3.5 hours ago, not sure when you were looking.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Play for 1/20:

1.5 units on (Eng Champ) Leeds United to WIN @ $4.98

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding a 6am(EST) time game for you night owls out there...

Czech (winter) League Grp A: 1u on Fc Mas Taborsko to win @ $1.42

This is simply relying on the fact that a team in extremely poor form (Kolin has lost 12-of-16 games this season, including a dismal 1-0-7 at home and 0-3-5 on the road) will lose to a team with short/long term decent form.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Mas Taborsko won easily, 5-1, so 1-0 and +0.42 units overnight.

Overall: 14-18 and -9.8 units (42.5 units/-23.1% ROI).

Adding: (Malta FA Trophy) 2 units on Valletta FC to WIN @ $1.21.

So you know Valletta is arguably the second or third best team in Malta and their opponents (Meilta FC) are not in the same class,

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

So Valletta come through 2-0 and Leeds also won 1-0 which is another 2-0 and +6.39 units on the day.

Overall: 16-18 and -3.4 units (46.0 units/-7.4% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Play for 1/21:

1.5 on (Eng Champ) Fulham/Notts Forest DRAW @ $3.53

 

[OzCap]

Adding:

(French Cup) 1 unit on Monaco to WIN @ $1.43
(Malta Cup) 2.5 units on Hibernians to WIN @ $1.28
(Portugal Cup) 1 unit on Benfica (-1) @ $1.87

 

[OzCap]

Results:
(Eng Champ) 1.5 units on Fulham/Notts Forest DRAW @ $3.53
(French Cup) 1 unit on Monaco to WIN @ $1.43
(Malta Cup) 2.5 units on Hibernians to WIN @ $1.28
(Portugal Cup) 1 unit on Benfica (-1) @ $1.87

2-2 and -1.37 units on the day as Benfica decide to rollover in the second half and Forest couldn't level it up after going down by 3.

Overall: 18-20 and -4.77 units (52.0 units/-9.2% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Editing Results (misread my scores, Benfica DID win...I was looking at Sporting Lisbon result):


(Eng Champ) 1.5 units on Fulham/Notts Forest DRAW @ $3.53
(French Cup) 1 unit on Monaco to WIN @ $1.43
(Malta Cup) 2.5 units on Hibernians to WIN @ $1.28
(Portugal Cup) 1 unit on Benfica (-1) @ $1.87

3-1 and +0.48 units on the day as Forest couldn't level it up after going down by 3.

Overall: 19-19 and -2.9 units (52.0 units/-5.6% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One play for the day:

1.5 Units on Napoli to WIN @ $1.41

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Been one of those days today..Napoli had 20+min with an extra man and couldn't even manage the push, after Galatasaray DOMINATED and couldn't pull off a win against a 2nd class team...sheesh...

0-1 and -1 unit on the day.

Overall: 19-20 and -3.9 units (53.0 units/-7.4% ROI)

Lining up overnight and Friday plays right now...

Oz