Oz's NCAAB thread...

[OzCap]

Adding (posting these early as I will be out most of the morning...some lines may move in your favor closer to game time, esp Sam Houston St)

0.75 Units on Denver (+14) @ $1.952
0.5 Units on Dayton/Arkansas OVER (142.5) @ $1.91
1 Unit on Niagara (+17.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Princeton (+10.5) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on Sam Houston St (+9) @ $1.926
0.75 Units on SIU Ewards (+9.5) @ $1.952

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding...

0.5 Units on W Kentucky/Mississippi OVER (134) @ $1.952

 

[OzCap]

Complete card:

Graded:
1.75 Units on Maryland/SC Upstate UNDER (133) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.5 Units on UNC/Kentucky OVER (133) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.5 Units on Radford/Georgetown (+15) @ $1.926 - LOSS
1.5 Units on Ohio St/Morehead St UNDER (134.5) @ 1.91 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Indiana St (+12.5) - WIN
0.5 Units on Pepperdine/AZ State OVER (136) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.5 Units on Dayton/Arkansas OVER (142.5) @ $1.91 - LOSS

4-3, -0.17 units.

To go:
0.5 Units on Utah/Kansas OVER (133) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on W Kentucky (+9.5) @ $1.952
0.5 Units on W Kentucky/Mississippi OVER (134) @ $1.952
1.75 Units on Indiana/Grand Canyon UNDER (145.5) @ $1.976
1 Unit on Xavier (-5.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Drake (+15.5) @ $1.926
0.75 Units on Michigan (+11.5) @ $1.91
1.75 Units on New Mexico St (+1.5) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on N Illinois (-1.5) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on UL Monroe(+12) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on Cal Poly (+4.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Denver (+14) @ $1.952
1 Unit on Niagara (+17.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Princeton (+10.5) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on Sam Houston St (+9) @ $1.926
0.75 Units on SIU Ewards (+9.5) @ $1.952

 

[OzCap]

Complete card:

1.75 Units on Maryland/SC Upstate UNDER (133) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.5 Units on UNC/Kentucky OVER (133) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.5 Units on Radford/Georgetown (+15) @ $1.926 - LOSS
1.5 Units on Ohio St/Morehead St UNDER (134.5) @ 1.91 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Indiana St (+12.5) - WIN
0.5 Units on Pepperdine/AZ State OVER (136) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.5 Units on Dayton/Arkansas OVER (142.5) @ $1.91 - LOSS
0.5 Units on Utah/Kansas OVER (133) @ $1.952 - LOSS
0.75 Units on W Kentucky (+9.5) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.5 Units on W Kentucky/Mississippi OVER (134) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.75 Units on Indiana/Grand Canyon UNDER (145.5) @ $1.976 - LOSS
1 Unit on Xavier (-5.5) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.75 Units on Drake (+15.5) @ $1.926 - LOSS (missed getting that half point being slow with the trigger finger this morning grrr)
0.75 Units on Michigan (+11.5) @ $1.91 - LOSS
1.75 Units on New Mexico St (+1.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
1.5 Units on N Illinois (-1.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
1.5 Units on UL Monroe(+12) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.5 Units on Cal Poly (+4.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Denver (+14) @ $1.952 - WIN
1 Unit on Niagara (+17.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Princeton (+10.5) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.5 Units on Sam Houston St (+9) @ $1.926 - PUSH (grrr)
0.75 Units on SIU Ewards (+9.5) @ $1.952 - WIN

Just couldn't get out of the starting blocks today, 11-11-1 and -3.96 units....been a very rough week and this is when it is easy to get frustrated and drop out, I have faith in my models and will have a retrospective and undertake a 'season so far' analysis to understand what is and isn't working. Clearly staking is hurting me as seen in the YTD record and the fact that, again, level staking would have been better today.

If you have been fading me for a couple of days well done, if you have tailed, clearly the win%, while lower than I would like, is still in profitable territory.

Will bounce back from this seen it before, not worried yet.

Oz
--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
94-81-7 (54.2%)
My staking: +4.59 Units (227 units wagered; 2.02% ROI; 2.30% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +8.49 Units (175 units/4.85% ROI/4.25% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Very early that I may not be awake for...

0.75 Units on St Peter's (+11.5) @ $1.91

Wait until near gametime, the line may improve, I will take my chances putting this out there 6 hours early/overnight...

Cheers
Oz

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[OzCap]

Thanks XS! May the force be with you too...

Adding:

0.75 Units on Temple (+17) @ $1.935
1.5 Units on Syracuse/LA Tech UNDER (136) @ $1.952
1.25 Units on Samford (+18) @ $1.952 (again, missed the 0.5 points by being too slow...)
1.5 Units on Illinois/Depaul UNDER (144.5) @ $1.952
1.5 Units on Louisville/UNC Wilmington UNDER (140.5) @ $1.926
1.75 Units on Northwestern/Miss Valley St UNDER (133.5) @ $1.986
2.5 Units on Michigan St/Oakland UNDER (142.5) @ $1.952

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Wow

0.75 Units on St Peter's (+11.5) @ $1.91 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Temple (+17) @ $1.935 - LOSS
1.5 Units on Syracuse/LA Tech UNDER (136) @ $1.952 - LOSS
1.25 Units on Samford (+18) @ $1.952 (again, missed the 0.5 points by being too slow...) - PUSH, that freaking half point...
1.5 Units on Illinois/Depaul UNDER (144.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
1.5 Units on Louisville/UNC Wilmington UNDER (140.5) @ $1.926 - WIN
1.75 Units on Northwestern/Miss Valley St UNDER (133.5) @ $1.986 - LOSS
2.5 Units on Michigan St/Oakland UNDER (142.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS

I am not sure what to say here...other than "Sorry", just a bloody meltdown day, that I know happen, but they still hurt...I actually had a premonition when I got up that I should lay off yesterday, need to listen to my gut more.

1-6-1 and -7.36 units....I hate even typing that...straight units AGAIN would have saved the day. If this doesn't turn around soon (thinking conference play) I will have to review the staking methods....never seen a season start like this for my model and it is starting to annoy me a little now.

Good luck
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
95-87-8 (54.2%)
My staking: -2.77 Units (237.25 units wagered; -1.17% ROI; -1.89% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +3.44 Units (175 units/1.89% ROI/1.72% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Today's plays:

1.75 Units on Elon/Duke UNDER (150) @ $1.91
0.75 Units on Appalachian St (+16.5) @ $1.952

Good luck (for real today...)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

1.75 Units on Elon/Duke UNDER (150) @ $1.91 - WIN
0.75 Units on Appalachian St (+16.5) @ $1.952 - WIN

Finally, a small shot in the arm, 2-0 and +2.31 units.

Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
97-87-8 (52.7%)
My staking: -0.46 Units (239.75 units wagered; -0.19% ROI; -0.23% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +5.34 Units (184 units/2.90% ROI/2.67% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Some early plays to get things going:

1.5 Units on UNC/NC Greensboro UNDER (148) @ $1.952
1.25 Units on Buffalo (-7.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Midd Tenn St (+15) @ $1.91
2.25 Units on Belmont (+13.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Alabama (+12) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on N Arizona (+13.5) @ $1.952

Good luck!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
97-87-8 (52.7%)
My staking: -0.46 Units (239.75 units wagered; -0.19% ROI; -0.23% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +5.34 Units (184 units/2.90% ROI/2.67% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Adding:

1.5 Units on Alabama/Wichita State UNDER (143) @ $1.91 (can find this line at Bookmaker as of 4:10pm EST, most others running at 141.5)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Just saw this line at 144, that's a very big move in a short period of time...good time to either get in or out of the under depending on your perspective. I am going to stick with it, but might watch this game closely for a 2H under if the first half is getting blown out.

Adding:

1.5 Units on Alabama/Wichita State UNDER (143) @ $1.91 (can find this line at Bookmaker as of 4:10pm EST, most others running at 141.5)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Results:

1.5 Units on UNC/NC Greensboro UNDER (148) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.25 Units on Buffalo (-7.5) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.75 Units on Midd Tenn St (+15) @ $1.91 - LOSS
2.25 Units on Belmont (+13.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Alabama (+12) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.5 Units on Alabama/Wichita State UNDER (143) @ $1.91 - WIN
0.75 Units on N Arizona (+13.5) @ $1.952 - WIN

A solid day, 5-2 and +2.41 units. Sad part is that all my number pointed towards the UNC spread (-21), but I shied away from the size of the spread, was nearly vindicated, but alas, missed a good opportunity. C'est la vie.

Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
102-89-8 (53.4%)
My staking: 1.95 Units (248.5 units wagered; 0.78% ROI; 0.98% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +8.10 Units (191 units/4.24% ROI/4.05% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Some plays on a decent card:

1 Unit on Pitt (-6) @ $1.91
1.5 Units on Hampton/Illinois UNDER (140) @ $1.91
0.75 Units on Illinois-Chicago (+19) @ $1.91
1.75 Units on Loyola/Stanford UNDER (137) @ $1.90
2 Units on Loyola-Marymount (+17) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on Cal NorthRidge (+15.5) @ $1.982

Good luck!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
102-89-8 (53.4%)
My staking: 1.95 Units (248.5 units wagered; 0.78% ROI; 0.98% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +8.10 Units (191 units/4.24% ROI/4.05% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Loyola/Stanford: Stanford was not sporting a pretty offensive game against Denver last time out and the game netted less than 100 points total. Given that Loyola is barely averaging 67pts a game and giving up 70+pts (against foes weaker than Stanford) and are truly just relying on Evan Payne (who is averaging 33% of their points on his own with 22+ppg), if he gets shut down the total will remain low (around 120) and Stanford will probably win by double-digits as they have much deeper scoring ability, but 17 is probably too much to cover. If Payne is able to keep free and shoot the game will be much closer and the total will get pretty close to the line (around 130).

Hence...Loyola(+17) and the Under are my bigger bets for the day. Although Stanford on the ML is probably the safest bet, I don't think there is enough value in those odds for me.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Noticed the Pitt play is a FIRST HALF play (sorry, my mistake the spread was correct, but didn't note that it was 1H).

Cheers
Oz

 

[OzCap]

1 Unit on Pitt (-6) @ $1.91 - LOSS
1.5 Units on Hampton/Illinois UNDER (140) @ $1.91 - WIN
0.75 Units on Illinois-Chicago (+19) @ $1.91 - LOSS
1.75 Units on Loyola/Stanford UNDER (137) @ $1.90 - WIN
2 Units on Loyola-Marymount (+17) @ $1.952 - WIN
0.75 Units on Cal NorthRidge (+15.5) @ $1.982 - LOSS

Not much to say on this set, 3-3 and +2.34 units.

Good luck!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
105-92-8 (53.3%)
My staking: +4.29 Units (256.25 units wagered; 1.68% ROI; 2.15% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +7.96 Units (191 units/4.04% ROI/3.98% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

12/18 Plays:

1 Unit on Wright St (-2) @ $1.992
1 Unit on Temple (-11) @ $1.992
1 Unit on Seton Hall (-1.5) @ $1.926
1.5 Units on Seton Hall/USF UNDER (136) @ $1.91
0.75 Units on Appalachian St (+15) @ $1.952
1.25 Units on LSU (-6) @ $1.975
1.5 Units on LSU/UAB UNDER (139) @ $1.91
0.75 Units on Oregon St/DePaul OVER (133.5) @ $1.952

Good luck!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
105-92-8 (53.3%)
My staking: +4.29 Units (256.25 units wagered; 1.68% ROI; 2.15% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +7.96 Units (191 units/4.04% ROI/3.98% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

1 Unit on Wright St (-2) @ $1.992 - WIN
1 Unit on Temple (-11) @ $1.992 - WIN
1 Unit on Seton Hall (-1.5) @ $1.926 - WIN
1.5 Units on Seton Hall/USF UNDER (136) @ $1.91 - LOSS
0.75 Units on Appalachian St (+15) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.25 Units on LSU (-6) @ $1.975 - WIN
1.5 Units on LSU/UAB UNDER (139) @ $1.91- LOSS
0.75 Units on Oregon St/DePaul OVER (133.5) @ $1.952 - WIN

A solid night, 6-2 and +2.56 units.

Good luck!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
111-94-8 (54.1%)
My staking: +6.85 Units (265 units wagered; 2.58% ROI; 3.43% ROC)
1 unit (@ $1.95): +11.7 Units (205 units/5.69% ROI/5.85% ROC)