Oregon AT Boise???

[SoonerBS]

Yeah, Ducks is totally tuned into the Oregon scene, especially this game which he says he has researched to the nth degree. I believe it. He is definitely no one to blow smoke up anyone's butt.

And, he has made great points on making an Oregon play during the entire offseason.

For me, the decision to play the Ducks was easy -- UOweDucks, Conan, pags 11 and GoSooners are all Oregon. That makes it an automatic play for me if I hadn't ever capped the game.

 

[russ1945]

And, he has made great points on making an Oregon play during the entire offseason.

For me, the decision to play the Ducks was easy -- UOweDucks, Conan, pags 11 and GoSooners are all Oregon. That makes it an automatic play for me if I hadn't ever capped the game.

I finally broke down and went with Ducks. I am taking off work Friday so I might as well watch that game with some added interest. Oregon has many incentives and plenty of firepower.

 

[Conan]

Yes, all of you Boise victims are owed some satisfaction from this... and in a $$$ way too.

 

[BoiseBrian]

I can assure everyone that tix are hard to get, if you aren't a student or season ticket holder, you better know someone.

I also know that there will be a bigger UO representation than a couple thousand. There is a BIG Oregon alumni population here, and I would guess that although not all the Duck fans will be sitting together, (except for their allotment) the crowd will be strewn with Green and Gold.

still undecided on what to bet...

Good luck to all

BB

 

[Romanowski]

on the oregon bandwagon too

+5

 

[groundhog11]

On oregon also.....outright....

 

[LonnieTGator]

updated count Oregon 42 Boise 16 and nearly half the Oregon votes on + moneyline :think2:

 

[20ptdog]

Pick a Winner

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/preview09/news/story?id=4421178

and

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=128&f=1358&t=4648341

:nosepicki

 

[sdf]

updated count Oregon 42 Boise 16 and nearly half the Oregon votes on + moneyline :think2:

go read GoSooners thread. some good stats i posted regarding games like this. small road dogs should be played moneyline and not the pointspread to maximize your winnings. only 14 times in the past 29 years has a week 1 CFB home favorite of less than 6 won but didnt cover.

 

[LonnieTGator]

I would like to see two things added to that idea for it to really mean much

1 change the stat to games lined between -3 and -6 instead of favored since obviously games at -1 through -2.5 aren't going to matter as much but help the argument the points don't matter side

2 the total number of games involved in the sample. This year there are nine (buffalo now over a touchdown favorite) games involving home teams favored by 6 points or less and two of them are 3 or less. Most of the first week games are larger lines to begin with

Instead of just saying the points won't matter which is obviously flawed analysis regardless how many times this decade points haven't mattered if a bettor really likes Oregon in this game play the points and moneyline. If the points do matter they still are even or positive money with an Oregon loss but pointspread cover. I was gong to bet Oregon moneyline but now I will probably add some on the points also to break even if Oregon loses but covers the points.

 

[sdf]

I would like to see two things added to that idea for it to really mean much

1 change the stat to games lined between -3 and -6 instead of favored since obviously games at -1 through -2.5 aren't going to matter as much but help the argument the points don't matter side

2 the total number of games involved in the sample

Instead of just saying the points won't matter which is obviously flawed analysis regardless how many times this decade points haven't mattered if a bettor really likes Oregon in this game play the points and moneyline. If the points do matter they still are even or positive money with an Oregon loss but pointspread cover

i said in order to maximize your winnings, the points dont matter in GAME 1...when the lines are the weakest and books really dont have a strong grasp on who is good and who isnt.

since 1980, home favorites of less than 6 points that WON

<table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><th>SU:</th> <td>107-0-0 (13.9)</td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="10">
</td> </tr><tr> <th>ATS:</th> <td>91-14-2 (10.6)</td> <td>avg line: -3.2</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
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71 times the road dog won. That makes 178 games total.


----

if the line is between 3 and 6 and the home favorite WON

<table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><th>SU:</th> <td>69-0-0 (14.7)</td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="10">
</td> </tr><tr> <th>ATS:</th> <td>57-11-1 (10.7)</td> <td>avg line: -4.1</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
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</td></tr></tbody></table>
43 times did the road dog win. That makes 112 games total



so...if you like the road dog in these game 1 matchups, it is clear that to maximize your money winnings, play the moneyline.

43 times the road dog won out of 112 games. only 11 times did the points matter.

or if you want to expand the pointspread from 0 to -6

71 times the road dog won out of 178 games. only 14 times did the pointspread come into play.

and that should be about 28 years worth of data

 

[LonnieTGator]

Hey man, why all the hostility at a posting forum? Are you frustrated about something else and bringing it here? Thanks for the information but stick a potato in your mouth for being a hostile asshole ^^

You have Vince Young as your photo maybe you suffer from depression or some other mental problems

 

[sdf]

Hey man, why all the hostility at a posting forum? Are you frustrated about something else and bringing it here? Thanks for the information but stick a potato in your mouth for being a hostile asshole ^^

You have Vince Young as your photo maybe you suffer from depression or some other mental problems

which part of my post came off as "hostile asshole"? because I put "game 1" in bold?

i dont see any hostility anywhere in my post but maybe a neutral observer can help point it out. i think you misinterpreted the tone of my post because i was simply trying to be helpful.

 

[russ1945]

Sdf

This was on philsteele.com - seems to deal with some of the things you were discussing:

Daily Blog - Wednesday August 19th

I am doing my radio show circuit this summer and whenever I talk about Alabama, I think back to last year and how expectations were somewhat low for their team heading into the year. They were coming off a 7-6 season and had 4 games they figured to be a good sized underdog in. They had to play the defending national champs (LSU) in Death Valley, the preseason #1 team of 2008 (Georgia) Between the Hedges, the defending SEC East champ (Tennessee, #18 preseason) and the ACC preseason favorite (Clemson, #9 preseason) all away from home. Even the most optimistic Tide fan probably hoped for a split of those 4 games. As it turns out the Tide won all 4 and at the end of the regular season they were 12-0 and #1 in the country.
That got me to thinking, “How often do underdogs win outright?” Naturally there are different levels of underdogs and if you know me by now, you know that I will head to my computer and get all the details. There has been a lot of college football played since 1996, 12 years worth of it. If you count each FBS team playing a game (so 2 teams each game) in that span there were 16,753 different games of data for me to analyze.
Let’s look at the biggest favorites and you will see that Las Vegas does its job well picking out big favorites. Since 1996 there have been 382 teams that have been favored by OVER 31 points in a game. Of those 382 only FIVE have lost the game straight up. The biggest upset ever was when Stanford (+41) upset USC in 2007 and showing what a weird year that was the 2nd biggest upset ever was also in 2007 when Syracuse (+37) beat Louisville. The other 3 huge upsets since 1996 were: Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. Basically if your team is installed as an underdog of 31 points or more in a game, they have a 1.3% chance of winning or 1 out of every 76.6 teams in that role actually win the game.
Now let’s look at the chances of your favorite team winning if they are installed as an underdog of 24.5 to 31 points. Since 1996 there have been 617 teams that have been favored by 24.5 to 31 points in a game. You would expect the underdogs would have a better chance of winning outright than the above teams and naturally they do. In that span 24 teams that have been favored by that margin have lost straight up in a game with two such upsets last year. Wyoming was +27 when they upset Tennessee on the road and Oregon St was +25 when they upset USC at home. The amount of upset did not go up as much as I thought they would as upsets occurred only 3.9% of the time or 1 out of every 25.7 games.
You would figure that the percentage of upsets in the 17.5 to 24 point favorites level would go up drastically from that 3.9% in the previous category. Since 1996 there have been 1,013 teams that have been favored by 17.5 to 24 points. I am still a little surprised that there were only 71 upsets in this level of favorites over the 12 years span. That is just 7% upsets which comes out to 1 upset loss for every 14.3 teams that are favored by 17.5 to 24 points. Last year there were 9 such upsets which included Ole Miss over Florida, UNLV over Arizona St, Eastern Michigan over Bowling Green, Syracuse over Notre Dame, Army over Tulane, Hawaii over Fresno St, FIU over Toledo, New Mexico St over Nevada and Arkansas St over Texas A&M.
I will start breaking it down into smaller categories as we continue to go down in level of favoritism. The next category to look at are teams that are favored by 14.5 (more than 2 TD’s) to 17 points. Since 1996 there have been 650 teams that have been favored by 14.5 to 17 points in a game. Of the 650 teams favored by this amount 88 have lost the game outright. That is close to double the odds as the category above as 13.5% of the teams favored by 14.5 to 17 points lose outright and an upset occurs 1 time for every 7.38 games played in that level. There were only 7 such upsets last year including Buffalo over Ball St in the MAC title game.
The next level down that I will look at is the 10.5 to 14 point category. From 1996 – 2008 there were 1,146 teams that were favored by this level. Of those 1,146 games there were 242 upsets which was 21.1% of the time. That still means that roughly 4 out of every 5 teams favored by 10.5-14 points wins the game with an upset occurring once every 4.7 times.
From 1996-2008 there were 1,056 teams that were favored by 7.5 to 10 points and of those 1,056 teams there were 279 upsets which was almost the same results as the favorites from 10.5 to 14. That means that 26.4% of the time a team was favored by 7.5 to 10 points they lost outright and that translates into 1 upset every 3.78 games.
Since 1996 there have been 1,930 teams that have been favored from 3.5 to 7 points. These are teams that are expected to win the game but the game should be close. The last time we tightened up the category the upsets went from every 4.7 games to every 3.8 games. Should we expect 1 in every 2.7 games here? Since 1996, 658 of the 1,930 teams that were underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points have pulled outright upsets and that translates into 1 every 2.9 games or 34.1% of the time.
Now we get to the category that will tell us if Las Vegas knows what they are doing. Games where a team is favored by 3 points or less. These games are basically toss-ups but Vegas favors one team and makes them the favorite. What percentage of teams pull minor upsets as underdogs of 3 points or less? As I type this I do not know the answer but I will guess 45% of them. Now let’s go to the computer. Since 1996 there have been 1,269 favorites of 3 points or less. My 45% guess would have 571 minor “upsets”. The actual answer is 621 “upsets” by teams that are underdogs of 3 points or less which comes out to be 48.9% and that shows these games are definitely toss-ups!
As I type this I am thinking that 3 point games should have a much higher % of the favorite winning so let’s take a closer look at just those games. There have been 426 games in which a team was favored by 3 points by Las Vegas over the last 12 years. How many times does that team win outright? The answer is 228 times or just 53.5% of the time. That is 228 times the favorite has won and 198 times the underdog has won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win the game when the line is exactly 3 points.
Here is a quick chart showing the chances of a team winning outright depending on where Las Vegas sets the line.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=451 align=center><COLGROUP><COL width=75><COL width=93><COL width=81><COL width=72><TBODY><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 width=133 height=19>Favorite of</TD><TD class=excel3 width=95># of GMS</TD><TD class=excel3 width=109>Lost Outright</TD><TD class=excel3 width=112>%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>31+ pts</TD><TD class=excel3>382</TD><TD class=excel3>5</TD><TD class=excel3>1.3%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>24.5-31</TD><TD class=excel3>617</TD><TD class=excel3>24</TD><TD class=excel3>3.9%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>17.5-24</TD><TD class=excel3>1013</TD><TD class=excel3>71</TD><TD class=excel3>7.0%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>14.5-17</TD><TD class=excel3>650</TD><TD class=excel3>88</TD><TD class=excel3>13.5%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>10.5-14</TD><TD class=excel3>1146</TD><TD class=excel3>242</TD><TD class=excel3>21.1%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>7.5-10</TD><TD class=excel3>1056</TD><TD class=excel3>279</TD><TD class=excel3>26.4%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>3.5-7</TD><TD class=excel3>1930</TD><TD class=excel3>658</TD><TD class=excel3>34.1%</TD></TR><TR height=19><TD class=excel3 height=19>3 or less</TD><TD class=excel3>1269</TD><TD class=excel3>621</TD><TD class=excel3>48.9%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


This is based on the past 12 years.

 

[LonnieTGator]

which part of my post came off as hostile? because I put "game 1" in bold?

i dont see any hostility anywhere in my post but maybe a neutral observer can help point it out. i think you misinterpreted the tone of my post because i was simply trying to be helpful.

I searched your profile and read four pages of your recent posts. Many of them are similar to what you posted here Thanks again for the information about the week 1 six points or less angle but save the hostile toughboy act for someone who gives a damn like bigdaddyQH

Russ also thanks to you for the information

 

[sdf]

This was on philsteele.com - seems to deal with some of the things you were discussing:

Daily Blog - Wednesday August 19th

WOOF! thanks for the post. that's a lot to read through but I wouldnt expect anything less from Phil. he's thorough but he can go on and on and on (if you've ever heard any of his pre-recorded tapes he did with Northcoast)

looks like good info though.

 

[sdf]

save the hostile toughboy act for someone who gives a damn like bigdaddyQH

again, where is the hostility? where in any of those 4 pages of posts you reference do i come off as hostile?

maybe i need more emotes to make everything fun? <<:cripwalk::toast:

 

[LonnieTGator]

sdf posting more emotes will help you and v young through your mental problems. Especially the dancing ones are fun it's okay for you to admit here that you felt better after posting several of them in a post and crip walking is healthy and smooth exercise. Anyways back to discussing the Oregon and Boise game

:cripwalk::cripwalk::lol:

 

[russ1945]

WOOF! thanks for the post. that's a lot to read through but I wouldnt expect anything less from Phil. he's thorough but he can go on and on and on (if you've ever heard any of his pre-recorded tapes he did with Northcoast)

looks like good info though.

I wish he would deal more with ATS info and stats instead of SU info and stats. I know he has that data and although he shares a lot I think he has some nuggets he keeps for himself. Can't blame him.

 

[Conan]

I bet it both ways because I feel strongly about Oregon here. If I lose the ML wager, I cancel the loss with the side bet. No harm no foul, not even extra juice.