Oregon AT Boise???

[Conan]

I remember you posting this earlier in the year. I agree that this is motivation of the third degree but both teams are reloading this year and the QB position is not an advantage for Oregon in this one as Boise has a good one. I think it boils down to the line play and I think Oregon has the better RB's. I cannot wait to watch this one and in fact I am taking off work on the 4th so I can stay up and watch it. Despite all the Boise hoopla I can see them losing this and also losing to Tulsa (at Tulsa). Being Kelly's first game as HC is my biggest hedge at this point but if Oregon can hold up in the trenches I think Oregon has a distinct advantage at RB. This game has all the trimmings that a college football fan could ever ask for.

Listen, I'm nobody to say Kellen Moore doesn't have great potential and that he isn't an exceptional talent. However, you have not seen the best of Jeremiah Masoli yet. His passing game was stellar in HS but Oregon did not utilize his throwing talents nearly as much as he was capable of delivering last season. That is mostly because he was just learning the spread option offense and he didn't really get rolling until most of the way through the year... as a runner. He piled up the ground yards as good as any dual threat QB you will see.

Now he has had time to work with his receivers, who are deep and talented. I think you will see another dimension in his game this time around. He's a dark-horse Heisman Candidate as a Junior. Moore is just a sophomore and his rushing ability is nowhere near Masoli's. As good as Moore may be, and he is good, I'd still have to give the QB edge to Oregon in this one.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

It'll be a ping pong match, look for 70 points.
My opinion, and mine alone, Boise looks like an overlay, line s/be 3 not 5.5 or 6.
Grab the points.

With the issues at O-line on both teams, I don't think it will be that high scoring of a game for blue turf standards. Niether QB will have much time to throw but Oregon has the edge since Masoli is built like a brick shit house and is better avoiding the rush IMO.

 

[Conan]

With the issues at O-line on both teams, I don't think it will be that high scoring of a game for blue turf standards. Niether QB will have much time to throw but Oregon has the edge since Masoli is built like a brick shit house and is better avoiding the rush IMO.

I've been hearing good reports about Oregon's OL development and injuries piling up on both sides of the line for Boise. Also Oregon's RB, Legarrette Blount is an animal that mows people down, hurdles them and loses them with his speed making 90° cuts like a guy that weighs 50 lbs less than his 6'1" 240 lb frame. He's a big problem for their defense to take down in practice but he will be Boise St's problem soon enough.

 

[5-0SAT]

so many other ATS mismatches on the board to mess with this coin flip of a game. gun to my head, i'd say ducks + the number. gl

 

[gynecologist]

Oregon has arguably the best QB in the pac-10.. I personally think BSU is somewhat overrated..

I'd love Oregon if they didn't have such a new O-Line.. But Oregon and the points sound good. I'll be on Oregon..

 

[20ptdog]

so many other ATS mismatches on the board to mess with this coin flip of a game. gun to my head, i'd say ducks + the number. gl

That is what I said before practices started if people were going to bet, although I did say I thought Oregon would win. But now after being reminded of some of the players on Oregon's two-deep, I am starting to see this as a mismatch based on "perception."

It can't be stressed enough that Boise St is getting TOO MUCH credit for winning on the road last year. It has already been explained why.

Same for the home winning percentage; TOO MUCH credit against what teams?

These are "headlines" and when you are betting money, you need to read the in-depth article, not just the headlines to find the advantages you are looking for.

Boise, even though they play a weak schedule every year, is a good team. They are very well coached, and they have some good players. But they don't play a BCS conference schedule, and we ALL know if they did, they wouldn't be 12-1 or 13-0 every year.

Seriously, Boise does not have the same amount of talent and depth as Oregon, and they will find that out.

Folks worry about Oregon's O-line like they are a grinding, road-paving offense and they are not. Oregon was WAY TOO EXPLOSIVE last year to be reduced to a team that will have trouble moving the ball and scoring just because they have a bunch of guys coming in on the line who have been playing in this system for 2-3 years, just not as starters. It is their time now, and it is silly to think they will suck.

Factor it into your considerations sure, but don't just read the headline "starters gone from O-line," but instead, do a little homework if you want to find the hidden value.

This is absolutely a game that folks should be paying attention to. The line has already dropped in Oregon's favor, and may drop a little more.

 

[fballplaya]

Oregon has arguably the best QB in the pac-10.. I personally think BSU is somewhat overrated..

I'd love Oregon if they didn't have such a new O-Line.. But Oregon and the points sound good. I'll be on Oregon..

Don't forget about the Thursday night home teams....last year they dominated...

 

[Conan]

That is what I said before practices started if people were going to bet, although I did say I thought Oregon would win. But now after being reminded of some of the players on Oregon's two-deep, I am starting to see this as a mismatch based on "perception."

It can't be stressed enough that Boise St is getting TOO MUCH credit for winning on the road last year. It has already been explained why.

Same for the home winning percentage; TOO MUCH credit against what teams?

These are "headlines" and when you are betting money, you need to read the in-depth article, not just the headlines to find the advantages you are looking for.

Boise, even though they play a weak schedule every year, is a good team. They are very well coached, and they have some good players. But they don't play a BCS conference schedule, and we ALL know if they did, they wouldn't be 12-1 or 13-0 every year.

Seriously, Boise does not have the same amount of talent and depth as Oregon, and they will find that out.

Folks worry about Oregon's O-line like they are a grinding, road-paving offense and they are not. Oregon was WAY TOO EXPLOSIVE last year to be reduced to a team that will have trouble moving the ball and scoring just because they have a bunch of guys coming in on the line who have been playing in this system for 2-3 years, just not as starters. It is their time now, and it is silly to think they will suck.

Factor it into your considerations sure, but don't just read the headline "starters gone from O-line," but instead, do a little homework if you want to find the hidden value.

This is absolutely a game that folks should be paying attention to. The line has already dropped in Oregon's favor, and may drop a little more.

Damn, that was a well expressed and well organized post.

That being said, I will be humbled to see Oregon win outright considering that (regardless of the competition) Boise has been dominant on the smurf turf AND this game looks like it is being sided bigtime. We all know what that means. YIKES!

Gotta stick to my guns anyway.

PS... I don't know what Thursday has to do with home teams winning as they apparently have, but maybe being the only game on TV at the time in front of God and everyone might mean that home teams that can dominate generally will, except perhaps when they play a road team that dominates their opponents too. Aside from that fact, Boise is just a short to medium drive from Eugene (say about 4-5 hrs.) so there may be quite a contingent of Duckfans in attendance, especially Oregon fans that live east of the Deschutes, such as alums that live in Bend or K-Falls. (by the 1000's)

 

[20ptdog]

"AND this game looks like it is being sided bigtime. We all know what that means. YIKES!"

Not familiar with that term...what does it mean?

 

[Conan]

"AND this game looks like it is being sided bigtime. We all know what that means. YIKES!"

Not familiar with that term...what does it mean?

Sided means everyone is on one side. Very often a bad sign when that happens. Seems to be about 2-1 for Oregon in who likes who. If you ever see a 4-1 or 5-1 sided game, bet contrary to it. And the more ridiculous it seems, the better.

Reason: Linemakers are usually smarter than everyone else... just about everyone.

I'm hanging with the Ducks anyway and I don't give a fuck who agrees with me. :think2:

 

[Incubus]

............, Boise is just a short to medium drive from Eugene (say about 4-5 hrs.) so there may be quite a contingent of Duckfans in attendance, especially Oregon fans that live east of the Deschutes, such as alums that live in Bend or K-Falls. (by the 1000's)

Information like this can not be discounted. The Duck faithful will arrive in numbers at the stadium and in town. They will be highly motivated to cheer loudly. The players are amped up to atone for last year's debacle. The videos you posted are clear evidence that the Ducks have indeed "circled" this game. There will be some viscious hits in this one, and I see Oregon's OL and DL really taking care of business.

I bet Oregon +5. If Boise wins outright, it will be only by -3 or -4.

Given the proximity of the 2 schools, there is a bonified rivalry brewing here. This could be a GREAT ongoing series IMO. Hope both schools' ADs will consider negotiating this series again for the near future.

 

[UoweDucks]

Information like this can not be discounted. The Duck faithful will arrive in numbers at the stadium and in town. They will be highly motivated to cheer loudly. The players are amped up to atone for last year's debacle. The videos you posted are clear evidence that the Ducks have indeed "circled" this game. There will be some viscious hits in this one, and I see Oregon's OL and DL really taking care of business.

I bet Oregon +5. If Boise wins outright, it will be only by -3 or -4.

Given the proximity of the 2 schools, there is a bonified rivalry brewing here. This could be a GREAT ongoing series IMO. Hope both schools' ADs will consider negotiating this series again for the near future.

I have to shed a little light on this. Oregon received less than a thousand tickets from Boise for this game. There are tickets available but boise fans are currently charging from 300-350 per rsvd seat. At that price I am doubtful that there will be a large duck contingent. Additionally, this game is being viewed as the game of the century in boise. I anticipate only a few thousand duck fans will be in attendance if that.



I don't think that Oregon will renew this rivalry anytime soon, there is some anger about the ticket allotment. Additionally, this game would almost always be a no win situation for Oregon. Fortunately this year the bronco's lofty preseason ranking helps make this game attractive from a standings viewpoint. Things change if BSU could find itself in a bcs conference through some sort of realignment with the MWC, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

There is some real crazy wagering going on with this game. Off shore it is pretty much a 5 point game, though it did dip to 4.5 for a short while yesterday. In Vegas, the line yoyo's from 5.5 to 6. The ML keeps fluctuating between 160 to 170 for Oregon, -190 to-200 for Boise. It appears at this time that the smaller bettors are favoring Oregon, but the larger bettors like Boise. This line could change 20 times between now and kickoff.

 

[UoweDucks]

I've said all summer long that the line should be right around 3 or 3.5. I believe this is where it will settle barring significant injuries.

 

[Incubus]

I have to shed a little light on this. Oregon received less than a thousand tickets from Boise for this game. There are tickets available but boise fans are currently charging from 300-350 per rsvd seat. At that price I am doubtful that there will be a large duck contingent. Additionally, this game is being viewed as the game of the century in boise. I anticipate only a few thousand duck fans will be in attendance if that.



I don't think that Oregon will renew this rivalry anytime soon, there is some anger about the ticket allotment. Additionally, this game would almost always be a no win situation for Oregon. Fortunately this year the bronco's lofty preseason ranking helps make this game attractive from a standings viewpoint. Things change if BSU could find itself in a bcs conference through some sort of realignment with the MWC, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

Thanks for setting me straight with your reply.

Only a few thousand (if that) Duck fans will be at the game?
Bummerooski!

 

[Conan]

I've said all summer long that the line should be right around 3 or 3.5. I believe this is where it will settle barring significant injuries.

I said the same thing as I saw this game as you saw it. What else is new? All things considered, this is a clear case of the home team favored by a minimal spread that reflects only the HFA. On a neutral field -- even money.

Looking at the preseason rankings, that follows suit as well. Anything beyond that represents a talent mismatch or some other edge being the reason for adding more points and that simply isn't the case here. It is strictly a matter of perception that explains the few extra points.

The reason why I mention this is because someone here said they see 5½ as an overlay which is exactly what it is.

 

[Conan]

Thanks for setting me straight with your reply.

Only a few thousand (if that) Duck fans will be at the game?
Bummerooski!

Yeah, Ducks is totally tuned into the Oregon scene, especially this game which he says he has researched to the nth degree. I believe it. He is definitely no one to blow smoke up anyone's butt.

 

[HEYMIKEYHELIKESIT]

Boise is always a hard team to bet.

Everyone here will run to the over and in my mind ths game will be in the 40s if at all.

Boise ball controls with the best of them. They get the overs against inferior teams in their division but rarely get them outside the league.

You will see a back and forth game here....with run run run in the plan

I see it

Oregon 21
Boise 18.


I like Oregon and the points...

 

[Conan]

Boise is always a hard team to bet.

Everyone here will run to the over and in my mind ths game will be in the 40s if at all.

Boise ball controls with the best of them. They get the overs against inferior teams in their division but rarely get them outside the league.

You will see a back and forth game here....with run run run in the plan

I see it

Oregon 21
Boise 18.


I like Oregon and the points...

It sounds like you like the Ducks SU.

I'm wonering why you don't think Oregon will run on them and rack up the points considering the skill position players they have returning on offense and all the turnover on Boise's defense? And just in case you are wondering, Oregon's OL has looked pretty sharp in camp this season.

I'll admit I have a very hard time envisioning this game as a ball control field position thing with a whole bunch of punts and 3 and outs... or whatever.

 

[LonnieTGator]

Heymikey it looks like you should be heavy on the under since you have a total almost thirty points less than the betting line