The 2010 Tour De France will no doubt see a big change in the Astana team which was so dominant in this year's Tour. The leader and Manager Johan Bruyneel is leaving to join Lance Armstrong to form Team Radio Shack. Also at this time it is up in the air who Alberto Contador will be riding for. It has been reported that He has turned down a 22 Million offer to extend his contract with Astana. There is no question that Contador will be back next year to defend his Tour victory but for what team ?
For those interested in how to make a future wager on next year's tour, why does it matter as it was obvious that He was the class of this year's Tour. Well if I had to make a wager right now I would put my $$ on Contador but since I don't have to make any wagers at this time, I will wait to see who's on what team. Let's remember that Team Astana easily won the team time trials and gained over 40 seconds or more on every other team member on opposing teams. If Contador didn't have the huge advantage of being on the Astana team, He might have lost 40 or more seconds instead of gaining 40 seconds on his chief opponent Andy Schleck. Also if Contador didn't have Levi, Kloden and Armstrong to help him in the steep Mountains, it is hard to really figure how much harder his path to Victory might have been. Also the Individual Time trial courses were kinda playing right into Contador's strong suit with lots of uphill grades that helped him build up most of his big lead. Contador really didn't show up Andy Schleck on the steep mountain stages with a lot of his advantage built up on the 3 time trials. I look for Andy to put in a lot of work to improve his time trial skills and thereby making the contest much closer. As for Lance, I think He put in a stellar performance but in the end his long layoff and his broken Collarbone injury proved to be the biggest obstacles to giving Contador any real challenge. Lance used to be the best time trial Cyclist in the Tour and his performance in the 2 ITT were not up to his standards and He lost way too much time to Contador to have any real chance. Perhaps next year with more time to get in top shape, He might be able to return to being one of the best ITT cyclist in the Tour. I believe his only chance to return to the top of the podium rests with him being able to stay close to the leaders in the ITT.
So how do I foresee next year ? Somehow I still see Contador winning next year's Tour with Andy Schleck finishing 2 nd, but far closer. Lance will be in better shape but also a year older while Alberto and Andy are still reaching their prime. Therefore I really can't foresee Lance rising above these two superb Cyclists but perhaps finishing a closer 3rd.
However We are talking about Lance Armstrong so there is always a chance that He could even stun me !
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