Opinions on the Tour de France? Lance Armstrong is 2nd betting choice!

[kermit16]

Status Quo today ! Rest day tomorrow with no real excitement predicted until they hit the Alps the latter part of next week, Sunday I believe. I will make one comment or prediction about the rest of the Tour. The tension and to some degree dissension that has developed within the dominant Astana team might actually bring about a more exciting finish to this race. I believe that team Astana will try to work together to hold off any attacks from their other main competitors. However when the race goes to it's deciding finishing climbs, there will be no hesitation for Contador or Lance to go all out for the win ! Like I said earlier, I would love to see the race go to the final climb up Mont Ventoux with Contador and Armstrong within 2 seconds of each other as they are now. You can bet that them it would be " All for One and One for All " as it should be on the final climb of the Tour !

~~:<<:toast:

 

[HiPockets]

All for one and one for all is okay on the final climb but not fine during an early insignificant stage when the race favorite Contador gets a taser up his backside from his sponsers to close a 19 second advertising gap (where "seconds matter") and gets called a 'dick' in US media? This slow US media breakaway logic might get caught, passed, and soon forgotten.

 

[kermit16]

All for one and one for all is okay on the final climb but not fine during an early insignificant stage when the race favorite Contador gets a taser up his backside from his sponsers to close a 19 second advertising gap (where "seconds matter") and gets called a 'dick' in US media? This slow US media breakaway logic might get caught, passed, and soon forgotten.

Yes of course it is OK on the final climb of the Tour ! At stage 6, the main goal of the Astana team was to stay up front and make sure none of the real competitors were able to attack and cut into the Teams very nice lead. That is why the team Manager gave the team orders to not attack and to protect their great position. The team occupies the 2,3,4,and 6 th place. What Contador did was disobey the team managers orders and attacked his own team for his own selfish purpose. I assume his intention was to get the Yellow Jersey. I thought you were very informed as to the strategies needed to win the Tour De France. It is not in the best interests for a team to defend the yellow jersey this early in the race as it usurbs a lot of valuable effort and adds more pressure to their team. His teammates, most expert commentators, ex cyclists question Contador's actions. I think He acted like a " Dick " and that will never change IMHO.
The last day of the Tour " Paris Champs-Elysees " is mainly ceremonial except perhaps for the sprinters.Therefore for all practical purposes the final climb will constitute the end of the tour in reality. It is possible that the Astana team really doesn't know who is really their best rider at this time. However as they go up the final deciding climb of the Tour, Go for it as long as it is one of their Riders. If you don't see the difference ... well I give up ! Perhaps you are just trying to argue and I'm out of here !

:toast:

 

[Uscsilb24]

kermit..thanks for all your great input so far, it has been great getting all these updates for you...

i have a question regarding wagering..i am not going to bet contador at 2/5 but do you see any value on lance at 3-1?

just wondering your opinion on what chances you give lance to win this?

thanks a lot

 

[kermit16]

kermit..thanks for all your great input so far, it has been great getting all these updates for you...

i have a question regarding wagering..i am not going to bet contador at 2/5 but do you see any value on lance at 3-1?

just wondering your opinion on what chances you give lance to win this?

thanks a lot

Good question ! I think Contador with his younger legs will likely win the Tour. There is only one person who could possibly beat him and that person of course would be none other than Lance. So if you want to consider that I think it is a 2 person race, then I see 3/1 as a decent wager. Lance has surprised most everyone so far as his opening time trial was very good and He seems to be very good on the climbs so far.The hardest climbs are still to come plus a lot of the great climbers including Lance have not been letting it all hang out yet. Look for the Schleck brothers, Evans, Sastre to try to get away on some breakaways when the Tour enters the Alps. They need to get closer to the lead prior to the last and toughest climb up Mont Ventoux. It will be the Astana's team job to stick together and fight off any challenge in the Mountains which might endanger the lead their main riders presently have. Because the challengers will most likely be attacking in the Alps, I expect the Yellow Jacket will be changing hands since Astana will be forced to climb at a very strong and fast pace. I fully expect Contador will be satisfied in sticking with the team goal of holding off all attempts to breakaway by their main opponents. Contador is confident that if He goes to last climb of the Tour up Mont Ventoux with the lead... Nobody can overtake him. The Lance of old could overtake him but this is 2009, not 2005. I'd take Contador at even $$ but never at 2/5. GL on whatever you decide to wager on the race. If they have a wager on whether the Yellow Jersey will change hands on stage 15, say yes unless Astana already has the Yellow !

 

[Boxer22]

Let's keep the record correct here. The reason you never heard any media noise about Lance leaving Contador in stage 3 is because Lance never initiated the attack and was simply alert and doing what He was supposed to do. He quickly responded and was able to tag along and keep up with the breakaway group. Contador was sound asleep and missed the breakaway and lost 41 seconds because of it. However in stage 6, contador initiated the attack against his own team for his own benefit.
Armstrong showed class and team ethics and stayed with his teammates to insure that team Astana main opponents didn't mount an attack that could damage the entire team Astana tour chances. As for asking us to rewind and watch Contador at the end of stage 6..... You can watch it as many times as you want but I see nothing but a self centered dick acting for himself only ! My $$ is on Contador and I still think He will win but it doesn't change my mind that He is without class ! Lance and the rest of his teammates stayed at home and manned the store. Go Lance ! I hope I lose my wager on Contador after yesterday's stage antics by Contador.

Great post... Armstrong and Team Astana worked so hard in that stage to stay up front and weather the storm only for this dickhead teammate (Contador) to take advantage of what team Astana did all stage so he can reap the benefits. Contador has no class. You know that when the team manager comes out and says he didn't follow the plan.

 

[kermit16]

The race went exactly as expected today with the sprinters having the day with the flat course. When I say the sprinters had their day, I am talking mainly about Cavendish who is simply the finest ! Another flat course for the sprinters tomorrow and expect Cavendish to be in the battle once again going for stage win number 4 in this years tour. All the main contenders are content as they await their chances in the Alps which starts on Sunday. Friday might be an interesting day also.
:toast:~~:<<

 

[HiPockets]

Great post... Armstrong and Team Astana worked so hard in that stage to stay up front and weather the storm only for this dickhead teammate (Contador) to take advantage of what team Astana did all stage so he can reap the benefits. Contador has no class. You know that when the team manager comes out and says he didn't follow the plan.

Thanks for your knowledgeable observations and biking insights . The welcomed late breaking news is that Contador, while not being a US citizen, is a white person.

 

[kermit16]

Nothing really new to report as Cavendish won pretty much as expected as He is by far the best sprinter in the world ! This gives him 4 stage wins and it is not beyond reason to think that He might go for a record 5 tomorrow. Tomorrow's stage has more mountains but it is possible that Cavendish might just get in the mix for a rush to the finish line. I expect no change up front however.

:toast:

 

[kermit16]

Sorenson led a breakaway that the leaders had little interest in and He held on to win his first stage. No movement as predicted amongst the main contenders but that might soon come to a head as the toughest mountain stages loom just ahead. I would like to explain that the Yellow Jersey holder Rinaldo Nocentini has the so called lead only because the leading contenders are content to let him and his team have the job and pressure of defending the Yellow Jersey. He has 0 chance to win the
Tour De France and everyone including Nocentini knows it. Now that the tough mountain climbs are approaching, We will see the big guns show their stuff. I look for some action tomorrow as the real race begins ! No day for the sprinters tomorrow ! If the yellow Jersey doesn't change hands tomorrow, I'm sure it will on Sunday !

:toast:~~:<<By Sunday Nocentini = ^<<^

 

[kermit16]

Big developement overnight as Levi Leipheimer fell in the closing of yesterday's stage and is out of the Tour with a broken wrist. Levi has been with Armstrong for many years and is one of the top riders on the Astana team. This will hurt the Astana team to some degree. Todays race is about to enter the steep part of the stage very soon.

 

[Boxer22]

Big developement overnight as Levi Leipheimer fell in the closing of yesterday's stage and is out of the Tour with a broken wrist. Levi has been with Armstrong for many years and is one of the top riders on the Astana team. This will hurt the Astana team to some degree. Todays race is about to enter the steep part of the stage very soon.

I feel terrible that this happened to Levi BUT with this happening now there is nothing holding Lance back IMO. He should attack at every chance he has now. I think before when Levi was still in the race he might of felt bad staging an attack because of the respect he has for Levi and that he is a team player. Now that Levi is gone all bets are off. Go getem Lance.

 

[tatehill2000]

was their any foul play? or just a freak accident?

tater

 

[kermit16]

I feel terrible that this happened to Levi BUT with this happening now there is nothing holding Lance back IMO. He should attack at every chance he has now. I think before when Levi was still in the race he might of felt bad staging an attack because of the respect he has for Levi and that he is a team player. Now that Levi is gone all bets are off. Go getem Lance.

Disagree ! This was a blow more to Lance than it was to Contador as Levi was there to help Lance and Levi never really had any chance to beat Contador IMHO. I think it is more important now for Lance not to be the attacker and wait to avoid any attack from the real contenders that will be showing their strength in the upcoming toughest climbs. He is only 2 seconds behind Contador and trust me if they stay that close going into the last climb of the Tour up Mont Ventoux, it will be go for it for both riders.

 

[Boxer22]

Disagree ! This was a blow more to Lance than it was to Contador as Levi was there to help Lance and Levi never really had any chance to beat Contador IMHO. I think it is more important now for Lance not to be the attacker and wait to avoid any attack from the real contenders that will be showing their strength in the upcoming toughest climbs. He is only 2 seconds behind Contador and trust me if they stay that close going into the last climb of the Tour up Mont Ventoux, it will be go for it for both riders.

I am shocked that no one is talking about Stage 18 the last ITT. Don't you think this stage will have a big influence on who will win the tour?

 

[kermit16]

I am shocked that no one is talking about Stage 18 the last ITT. Don't you think this stage will have a big influence on who will win the tour?

Lance and Contador are both excellent in the individual time trials. Lance needs to improve on his opening day finish and I have no doubt that He will as He looks to be getting stronger as the tour moves on. The Lance of old usually dominated the time trials. Contador took second and He will be up among the top finishers I'm sure. The tough mountains are far more important as minutes, not seconds can easily be the difference. GL

:toast:

 

[kermit16]

I think the rain today kept the main field in a more conservative mode. We knew that this was not going to be a day for the sprinters. Heinrich Haussler from Germany broke away and won the stage. However the Astana team pretty much controlled the Peloton and kept the leaders as they were with no change at the top. Tomorrow's race should be a rest day for the main contenders as they prepare for the real test that will be Sunday. As I said a few days ago, If you can find such a wager anywhere, I am sure that the Yellow Jersey will change hands on Sunday ! Look for the sprinters to have their fun tomorrow with the World's best sprinter Mark Cavendish looking to win a record stage and regain the green Jersey presently held by Thor Hushovd. Cavendish of course had a tough time in the mountains today so there is a chance that his legs might be a little weary and if you want to be brave, you might take a shot with Oscar Freire who is looking for a stage win and He is very fast ! GL tomorrow and you don't want to miss out on the stage on Sunday. I will write up my prediction of how the race might go tomorrow.

PS It's 112 today in Las Vegas :toast:hno::drink:

 

[kermit16]

Serguei Ivanoz won the stage as the sprinters were all left behind by the breakaway. Tomorrow will be the biggest day in the race as there will be no pretending who the real contenders are ! I have already stated that there will be a change in the Yellow Jersey tomorrow and I think the new leader will be Contador. In actuality, He really has been the leader since stage 6 when He grabbed a 2 second lead over Lance Armstrong. Nocentini has held the Yellow Jersey only because the top riders felt comfortable that He posed no real threat to them. Now with just a week left and the toughest climbs starting, I expect all the top contenders to make their moves as the stage finishes with a huge climb! I expect the Schleck brothers ,Cadel Evans, the defending Champion Carlos Sastre and perhaps Bradley Wiggins all to take some shots at the 3 leaders from Astana team ...Contador, Lance and Kloden. Team Astana will miss Levi Leipheimer on this important and grueling Mountain finish. I believe that the Astana team will be satisfied to ward off any attacks as they presently are in great shape to be the new leaders of the tour. To answer a question posed in an earlier post, I believe Lance will be content if He can simply stay on Contador wheel throughout the steep finishing climb unless Contador shows some real weakness. I believe that Lance would be pleased if He could go into the final Mountain stage next Saturday up Mont Ventoux with just a few seconds deficit on


Contador. Now that would be an epic battle if it happens ! Tomorrow will
tell us if Lance has it in him to keep up with the younger legs. The telecast starts early tomorrow at 3:30 am eastern but the real excitement will not come until the ending portion of the stage.
GL :toast:~~:<< PS It's 113 here in Las Vegas !

 

[Halifax]

Prick move by Garmin at the end of the stage.

 

[kermit16]

Quick update. Well pretty much as expected, Contador took advantage of the steep finish and is now the new leader of the Tour De France. Lance showed his age and although I believe He is now in second place, Lance trails Contador by about 1 minute and somewhere around 37 seconds. I will post more when all the final results are in.

:toast:~~:<< I might mention that this was planned by Astana and in no way was Contador acting on his own