Tough game. It's always been very hard for me to bet against teams that I know have better overall personnel (Georgia), even if they are going into a hostile environment in the first game of the season with a new QB. That's what makes this game a little unusual. A team who up to this point has been no better than a fourth place finisher in the Big 12 South going up against a power team in the SEC, and being favored over them. Too much too soon for OSU?
Gs
You have to ask yourself who would be favored if this game was played at
Georgia. If Georgia would be favored at home then that tells you how competitive it might be. Georgia can study film on Youngs system but they cannot study film on OSU players running Youngs system. I see a Georgia QB getting confused once in a while. Georgia is there on film for OSU to study (and study all summer if they want) on both sides of the ball, and the game is in Stillwater. AA RB, WR, and top notch QB and Gundy calling the plays in a system he is becoming a master at. Georgia has to come out conservative, not make mistakes, and try to get OSU to play conservative. Ain't gonna happen. Special teams could be at a premium in this game. I like OSU in this situation.
You asked is this too much too quick for OSU, not for their offense.
You have to ask yourself who would be favored if this game was played at
Georgia. If Georgia would be favored at home then that tells you how competitive it might be. Georgia can study film on Youngs system but they cannot study film on OSU players running Youngs system. I see a Georgia QB getting confused once in a while. Georgia is there on film for OSU to study (and study all summer if they want) on both sides of the ball, and the game is in Stillwater. AA RB, WR, and top notch QB and Gundy calling the plays in a system he is becoming a master at. Georgia has to come out conservative, not make mistakes, and try to get OSU to play conservative. Ain't gonna happen. Special teams could be at a premium in this game. I like OSU in this situation.
You asked is this too much too quick for OSU, not for their offense.
I agree with you in terms of Juice having a big year. He lead the Big 10 in passing last year in a very quiet fashion. He improved a lot in 2008 from 2007 and nobody really noticed because they had such a disappointing year. Schultz will keep a good balance running the ball and with all the talent at the wide out position, they will score plenty of points. It's always hard to defend a QB that can throw for 300 yards and run for another 100. O-line should improve from last year which will be the key.
Yeah, there should be some good comp. in the Big 10. On the top, you will see Ohio St., Penn St, Iowa, Mich. St, and Illinois have a solid seasons. Then on the next tier, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern should be able to play their oponents pretty tough. Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan could improve quite a bit from last year. Then in the gutter, you have Purdue and Indiana. Purdue could end up being decent but there is no chance for Indiana.
Indiana could rival Washington and Wazzu from last year. Now that Kellen Lewis is done, they are game over. They can't stop anyone on D and have no threats on the opposite side of the ball. They will be horrible.
I look for the Big10 to be an above average league this year. Not as good as the SEC and Big12 but right in there with the PAC10 and ACC. This is a real early assessment and nothing official. I think the ACC could end up becoming one of the better leagues once it's all said and done. They started 2008 with some bad losses but really turned it on through the end of the season. Ended up with a winning record against the SEC too, I believe.
This isn't an opening game, but keep a look out for Virginia against TCU in the second game. TCU is still getting some preseason hype, but I'm thinking it is mainly from last season's success. Dalton is not that great of a QB and their offense does not do well against good defenses. There is evidence that Virginia could be decent on defense this season if they can find some LBs to replace their stars. I faded Virginia in the early season last year for good reason, but they finished strong ATS and was better than what I had projected they could be for the season.
Virginia loses several of their playmakers from last season on offense, but they bring back 4 of their offensive line starters and Sewell returns at QB from being ineligible last season due to academics. They had some WRs that showed some promise in the Spring, but they still need to find a proven RB. One thing that they will be doing that TCU has not played well against is the new offensive coordinator for Virginia, Gregg Brandon, is implementing a new "hurry up" style offense and Groh is giving him free reign. If Virginia grasps this offense early, they could be a lot better than many give them credit for.
Virginia will have one game under their belt by the time they play this game. They play William & Mary in the opener which shouldn't be much competition, but it should be all they need to help them get some confidence and get their new offensive rythym tested and tried. This will be TCU's first game of the season and they will play it on the road. TCU should get some "popular vote" play and give us a good line on Virginia.
I'll be watching Virginia close in Fall camp . . . . ..
Virginia loses several of their playmakers from last season on offense, but they bring back 4 of their offensive line starters and Sewell returns at QB from being ineligible last season due to academics. They had some WRs that showed some promise in the Spring, but they still need to find a proven RB. One thing that they will be doing that TCU has not played well against is the new offensive coordinator for Virginia, Gregg Brandon, is implementing a new "hurry up" style offense and Groh is giving him free reign. If Virginia grasps this offense early, they could be a lot better than many give them credit for.
Virginia will have one game under their belt by the time they play this game. They play William & Mary in the opener which shouldn't be much competition, but it should be all they need to help them get some confidence and get their new offensive rythym tested and tried. This will be TCU's first game of the season and they will play it on the road. TCU should get some "popular vote" play and give us a good line on Virginia.
I'll be watching Virginia close in Fall camp . . . . ..
Colorado vs. Colorado St.
-- Colorado's running game could be nothing short of "nasty" this season with a good offensive line and I think Scott will shine this year.
-- CSU's line will be good this season as well, but they have no QB returning and the Spring looked bad. Also, they have questins at the RB position as well. Their game opener could be more of a feel to see who might start the rest of the season than a true intent to win the game.
-- While both teams have lost some players off their defensive front seven from last year, Colorado has the better chance at being stronger there than CSU. Also, Colorado's defensive secondary will likely be better as well.
-- No matter who Colorado starts at QB, he will be experienced or better than their experienced QB.
-- Colorado's running game could be nothing short of "nasty" this season with a good offensive line and I think Scott will shine this year.
-- CSU's line will be good this season as well, but they have no QB returning and the Spring looked bad. Also, they have questins at the RB position as well. Their game opener could be more of a feel to see who might start the rest of the season than a true intent to win the game.
-- While both teams have lost some players off their defensive front seven from last year, Colorado has the better chance at being stronger there than CSU. Also, Colorado's defensive secondary will likely be better as well.
-- No matter who Colorado starts at QB, he will be experienced or better than their experienced QB.
Utep vs. Buffalo
-- Buffalo goes on the road to play at UTEP. Buffalo will be breaking in a brand new QB this season.
-- Buffalo returns 8 on defense, but only 5 on offense. They are touting their running backs who return this season, but they lose several key players on the offensive line. I don't like betting on rebuilding lines.
-- UTEP returns 15 starters from last season's team including their QB.
-- UTEP is a tough place to play -- especially in the heat of September.
-- Buffalo goes on the road to play at UTEP. Buffalo will be breaking in a brand new QB this season.
-- Buffalo returns 8 on defense, but only 5 on offense. They are touting their running backs who return this season, but they lose several key players on the offensive line. I don't like betting on rebuilding lines.
-- UTEP returns 15 starters from last season's team including their QB.
-- UTEP is a tough place to play -- especially in the heat of September.
UTEP has the makings of a good ATS team this year. Plus most of their tough conference games are at home. I do like the combination of Buffalo being a revenge game for UTEP and the returning starters. Plus Buffalo was one of those teams last season that reached 8 wins ATS and loses alot on defense. So they won't repeat that number. And like you said, their O-Line also has some holes. UTEP went 5-7 ATS and I expect an improvement on that number this season. Possibly to 8 wins or more ATS.
Disclaimer that I don't know much about TCU's personnel, but here are my thoughts on what UVA brings to the table. First off, I have been extremely underwhelmed by UVA's options at quarterback. Lalich was probably slated for a breakout year but he is gone.
Sewell has thrown 17 TDs to 15 INTs in two full years of starting. That's 17 TDs in 611 passes, or 2.7 TDs per 100 attempts. That's lower than Chris Turner (MD) and Sean Glennon (VT) in their first two years of starting, and I consider both of them pretty average.
Then you've got Vic Hall, who has thrown two passes in college (was a star in high school but too small to be an effective full-time QB in the ACC), and Marc Verica, who threw 8 TDs to 16 INTs last year as a starter--and those numbers would have been worse if he had played in the USC opener.
Onto the running game, where you lose 67% of your rushing yardage with Cedric Peerman (NFL) and you are handing the keys over to Mikell Simpson, who averaged 3.0 YPC last year and only got 80 touches.
The Cavs lose their top five pass-catchers, leaving their most experienced WR on the roster as Jared Green (12 recs, 144 yds, 1 TD). Yikes. So UVA is trying to run a new no-huddle offense with three inexperienced QBs and no proven wide receivers, as well as a running back who has never carried the load fulltime.
They return six on defense, which may be their saving grace, but they lost all their starting linebackers, so the success of the defense is largely based on how the new linebackers perform.
As far as the TCU game, as I said I don't know much about the Horned Frogs and their personnel, and they will be traveling across the country for the kickoff. On a neutral field, I think a typical TCU team would beat the snot out of UVA, who, if you remember, have losses to Western Michigan, Wyoming (once, almost twice), and Duke (by 28, snapping their 40-some game ACC losing streak).
Proceed with caution on backing the Wahoos. :toast:
The key to the TCU/Va game is obviously the spread. If a non-BCS team like TCU travels cross country to face a BCS conference team and are favored against Virginia, then I would have to seriously consider Virginia in this spot. The facts are that non-BCS teams do NOT have a good record as favorites on the road against BCS teams. Just look at the winner of the CUSA East Carolina last season. They were favored both times they went on the road against BCS teams NCST and Virginia. And they lost both of those games straight up. So I would think long and hard before I took TCU in this spot. For me, this would be one of those games where I either take Virginia or leave the game alone.
Good observation. One thing you are missing though is that the OC, Gregg Brandon, is likely the best OC Groh has had in a long time, AND he is simply turning the reins over to him offensively. Head coaches that do this tend to have teams who learn the offensive systems faster (ex.: Malzahn at Tulsa, Dykes at Arizona, etc.) Plus, they return nearly their entire offensive line which should help to give the QB some time to learn the system and will make whoever starts at RB look a little better than he actually is. As for WRs, they liked what they had stepping up in the Spring, so I think they'll be alright there. Sewell has playing experience and it would not surprise me to see him starting by this game.
Like GS said, this game will depend on the line. BUT, another thing to remember is that we get a look at Virginia in their opener against Bill & Mary in the first week before they play TCU the next. The Virginia game will be TCU's first game of the season and they start it on the road.
While I believe that there will likely be more opportunity to fade Minnesota this year than to play on them, I do think their road opener against Syracuse will likely be a good spot to play on them unless the linesmakers get crazy with the line. Syracuse is going to really struggle in the early going as they did in the Spring. With the new coach, they are learning a new system and scheme -- the 3rd offense in 3 seasons.
I think this is a good spot for Minny, who is pretty much all experienced upperclassmen on defense, facing a first year QB and coach. If we can get the line at under 7 I think it will be a good spot to play on the GG's. I think what could help us with the line is the way Minny ended last season with two bad losses to Iowa and Kansas. I think this team just wore out towards the end of the season. They were much better on defense in their first 7 games than they were their last 5. They should be fresh and ready to go here.
Another game that I'm looking at is Texas A&M/New Mexico. The Aggies lost their opener to Arky St. last year. I think Sherman will know more of what he's doing to start this season. I look for the Aggies to jump all over NM and never look back. These are two teams going different directions. NM has had some NCAA sanctions thrown at them and are losing a ton of scholarships in the next few years. Plus a new coach with no head coaching experience.. This is NEVER a good situation. NM used to have some consistently good teams under Rocky Long. But last year was the first losing season that they've had in a long time. Not good. I think this team is going to fall even more before they get back up. They return only 9 starters this year. Only 3 on defense. Again not good news when facing a Big 12 offense in their first game on the road. If this line is anything under 17 I'm going to jump all over it.
GS: I think you are right on this one. Sherman has one year under his belt and they were -10 in T.O.'s LY learning a new system. New Mexico lost their opener LY to TCU 26-3 and T A & M beat them by 6 at NM LY. It is possible the line may open around 10- or so but this could be a blowout for A & M, and A & M's defense has to improve this year at least against a team that is really starting from scratch. Can you believe Nolan Cromwell is the OC for T A & M? That line could be higher but I am hoping for 12 or less.
I'll be monitoring the Texas A&M camp closely in the Fall, but their work in the trenches last season was atrocious and you know how big I like to weigh that factor. Yes, NM is going to suck, but this game depends all on the line. I'm not sure Texas A&M can cover a line of -14 or more . . . . .
GS,
You may also want to throw in the fact that Mike Locksley is facing sexual harassment accusations to boot. Not exactly a good start.
http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showthread.php?t=9027
Locksley was an ample OC for Illinois but wasn't exaclty a show stopper. Most Illini fans weren't heartbroken when he got the promotion and left. His offense isn't too hard to learn but if you don't have an option capable QB, there could be plenty of 1st year hard knocks. We have all seen his spread offense at Florida and Illinois. He had great athletes on offense at both schools (Good O-lines, Chris Leak, Deshawn Winn, Juice Williams, Reshard Mendenhall) but now he isn't working with anywhere near the talent. He got the job because he is a great recruiter but he was out matched more than once vs. average coaches and isn't known for having the best games plans. I will add that he was absolutely horrible at finding ways to get Regis Benn the ball on bubbles screens and running plays at Illinois. Needless to say, him and Zook were a great recruiting tandem, however, when it came to making good coaching decisions, they either got lucky or looked down right incompentent.
I will check into the QB situation and skill positions at New Mexico and get back to you guys....
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset" class=alt2>http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/31007133/
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
