Opening Games Heads Up

[SoonerBS]

I'm also kind of liking Baylor against Wake Forest if I can get the right number. The only problem with this is it might be a little too obvious of a game with the anticipated improvement of Baylor and Wake losing a ton of players on defense. Still, getting anything at Baylor +6 or over will be a good value imo.

I don't know on this one, GS. Last season, teams started catching up to Griffin midway through the season. He surprised some teams early on in non-conference, but the conference was ready for him. WF has always been able to forge a great defensive team even whenever they have heavy losses. Their secondary should be pretty good and I think they will find some defensive linemen to fill the void.

Offensively, WF is going to a bunch better, plus they will have a very solid offensive line. I look for them score some points against Baylor and this is a home game for them. I would likely take the -6 and WF on that bet from what I know now.

 

[SoonerBS]

Missouri vs Illinois.....This is a game where I'm hoping Mizzou's recent success carries over and I get a good number with Illinois. My guess is the line will be around Illinois -2.5. At least this is what I'm hoping for. I look for Illinois to win by 10+. The only problem here is this is a rivalry game. So it could be a little closer than I think. But I still like Illinois. This will be one of the few games where Zook isn't outmatched in the coaching department.

And at least the first year in two that he is not outmatched at QB. I still need to research the new Mizzou QB a bit though . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

I don't know on this one, GS. Last season, teams started catching up to Griffin midway through the season. He surprised some teams early on in non-conference, but the conference was ready for him. WF has always been able to forge a great defensive team even whenever they have heavy losses. Their secondary should be pretty good and I think they will find some defensive linemen to fill the void.

Offensively, WF is going to a bunch better, plus they will have a very solid offensive line. I look for them score some points against Baylor and this is a home game for them. I would likely take the -6 and WF on that bet from what I know now.

Like I said, this could be one of those too obvious public pick games and we might not get a good number. On an argument for the Baylor side, i think this will be a hungrier team than Wake with Baylor wanting badly to get to a bowl for the first time in a long time. . I also look for Briles to add a few more wrinkles to his offense this season. He wasn't going to put the whole playbook in a freshman's head in his first year. The key here is Baylor's defense and whether they can make any kind of progress over last season. Wake -6 was just an estimate. It could be -10. Who knows. This is a wait and see game. Possibly one to stay away from. Like I said I don't like to bet the obvious games that everybody is going over and over on in these forums. I prefer to have at least one under the radar team involved in each game. Or at least a HUGE power team mismatch like we had with for example Florida vs Hawaii last year where Hawaii was coming off of a BCS bowl..

 

[SoonerBS]

Like I said, this could be one of those too obvious public pick games and we might not get a good number. On an argument for the Baylor side, i think this will be a hungrier team than Wake with Baylor wanting badly to get to a bowl for the first time in a long time. . I also look for Briles to add a few more wrinkles to his offense this season. He wasn't going to put the whole playbook in a freshman's head in his first year. The key here is Baylor's defense and whether they can make any kind of progress over last season. Wake -6 was just an estimate. It could be -10. Who knows. This is a wait and see game. Possibly one to stay away from. Like I said I don't like to bet the obvious games that everybody is going over and over on in these forums. I prefer to have at least one under the radar team involved in each game. Or at least a big power mismatch like we had with Florida and hawaii last year.

You're right about the new wrinkles to the Baylor offense. Word is already out that he plans on Baylor passing more this year. Last year with their talent level on offense, he had to run Griffin a lot. But, now that they have a year under their belt, they are planning to add more of Briles' offense in.

I also agree with looking more at the "under the radar" games. Most of the time that is where you will find the most value.

 

[GoSooners]

The OVER in the OSU-Georgia game. This is kind of a strange matchup don't you think? For one thing, we get very few SEC teams come to Big 12 territory to play. And especially at Boone Pickens Stadium. The first ever that I can think of in Stillwater. Setting the line on this game is going to be tough for Vegas. My guess? OSU -3. But it could just as easily be a pickem game. But if the public gets carried away with an OSU team that is sure to get alot of pub and hype between now and then, we could possibly see and outrageous line with OSU favored by 6 or so. But the problem I have with that is Richt. I think he's a very good coach. Georgia usually disappoints when you expect the most out of them. But in games like this they kind of scare me. And Richt has a very good road record. Even with young QB's. From a few things that i've been reading, Georgia may have the best offensive line in the SEC. And although I think they'll be improved, I still have my doubts about the Pokes D-Line. Outside of maybe Texas, the Georgia O-Line is the best they'll face this season. And in the first game with a new DC on top of that. Georgia will bring in a good defense. Especially their secondary. But they do have to replace a couple key players on the D-Line. Especially DE. Plus they've had a couple suspensions that could hurt them on that side of the ball. My bet is this game goes over. But I'm looking for a certain number. I would like to see the totals not go any higher than 60. Preferably around 58 or less.

 

[trentmoney]

I don't know what line I will need to jump, Trent, I still need to get more info on NT, but the early info on Ball State does not look good for them. And, since they were an ATM machine last season, some people will bet them up at the first of the season this year. Hopefully with the way NT played their season last year, we will get a good dog line here of +14 or more.

North Texas was getting +20 AT HOME to sun belt teams last season...no way would i take them at any less on the road

 

[trentmoney]

BS..I like Nebraska at anything less than -28. FAU has proved over and over the last few years that they don't play well in the big stadiums. Combine that with Russell Smith no longer being there and an improved Nebraska defense and we have a game where the Huskers won't have to score THAT many points to cover. I'm thinking something like a 38-7 game.

Rusty Smith will be a 3yr starter as a Senior this fall

 

[GoSooners]

Rusty Smith will be a 3yr starter as a Senior this fall

I missed that one. I still have a slight lean to Nebraska in that game. The Huskers will be a good power running team this season facing an FAU defense that gave up almost 200 YPG rushing and loses about two thirds of their defense this season.

 

[russ1945]

Missouri vs Illinois.....This is a game where I'm hoping Mizzou's recent success carries over and I get a good number with Illinois. My guess is the line will be around Illinois -2.5. At least this is what I'm hoping for. I look for Illinois to win by 10+. The only problem here is this is a rivalry game. So it could be a little closer than I think. But I still like Illinois. This will be one of the few games where Zook isn't outmatched in the coaching department.

I really like Illinois in this one. I think they are going to show case Juice Williams this year and from what I have read they have improvement at WR and the former TCU OC to beef up the running game. The key, and I keep repeating this, in 2007 Illinois won every game in which Williams threw 30 or less passes. I think they can run on Mizzou. Enough said.

 

[russ1945]

Nevada/Notre Dame

I think this is a very interesting matchup. Nevada has one of the best QB-RB tandems in the country and the QB is a running threat also.
The Nevada QB (Kaepernick) LY threw 22 TD's (7int) to Clauen's 25 TD's
(17int). Yes 17 interceptions. Now Clausen ran for -73 yds LY to Kaepernick's 1,130 yds. He ran for 17 TD's including a TD run of 66 yds.

That is not all. LY Notre Dame rushed for a team total of 1426 yds netting a total of 11 rushing TD's. As far as I can se their longest run from scrimmage was for 35 yds. LY Nevada was 6th in the nation against the rush allowing only 88.6 ypg.
Nevada has a really good RB (Vai Taua) returning who LY ran for 1521 yards and 15 TD's himself. So together Kaepernick and Taua rushed for 2,651 yds and 32 rushing TD's.

So basically we have a tandem in an opening day scenario at ND's home field who will come ready to play. Now officiendo's are going to dwell on the fact that ND beat Hawaii and Nevada lost to Hawaii LY. My hope is the line reflects that and the fact that the ND win over Hawaii is still fresh on the publics minds. That was ND's best game of the year and if they come out with the big head against Nevada and giving too many points then I might just plop a little the other way.

 

[russ1945]

Nevada/Notre Dame (the rest of the story)

The write up above sounded pretty good huh. Well here is the rest of the story. Nevada LY ranked 119th (yes last) against the pass giving up 312 yds a game. So ND can't run, Nevada defends the run well, so what is ND going to do all day.......Pass. It seems like the more Claussen throws the more likely he is to throw and interception as a TD. So it could boil down to how ND handles the redzone. ND will be at least a 10 point favorite.
But, and I say but, if Nevada scores early, does defend the run well, puts ND into obvious passing situations, and eats a lot of clock this game could get interesting. The WAC scheduled Nevada and Boise St. to meet on the last game of the year so they must see a scenario developing that leads up to that being a meaningful game. Is Nevada as good as Boise St, well maybe not on defense, maybe on offense. But the question on opening week is will ND take Nevada too lightly? Notre Dame plays Michigan the following week. Could they be looking ahead?

 

[GoSooners]

The write up above sounded pretty good huh. Well here is the rest of the story. Nevada LY ranked 119th (yes last) against the pass giving up 312 yds a game. So ND can't run, Nevada defends the run well, so what is ND going to do all day.......Pass. It seems like the more Claussen throws the more likely he is to throw and interception as a TD. So it could boil down to how ND handles the redzone. ND will be at least a 10 point favorite.
But, and I say but, if Nevada scores early, does defend the run well, puts ND into obvious passing situations, and eats a lot of clock this game could get interesting. The WAC scheduled Nevada and Boise St. to meet on the last game of the year so they must see a scenario developing that leads up to that being a meaningful game. Is Nevada as good as Boise St, well maybe not on defense, maybe on offense. But the question on opening week is will ND take Nevada too lightly? Notre Dame plays Michigan the following week. Could they be looking ahead?

I agree with all of your Nevada/ND assessment. But I'm going to need to see a line somewhere in at least the ND -14 range or better.

 

[SoonerBS]

The UCONN/Ohio game opener could be a low scoring affair. UCONN should be solid on defense again this season, but they have lost their offensive studs. Ohio will be decent offensively if they can get their offensive line well again, but Solich has never seemed to light up the scoreboard with a great deal of scoring.

 

[SoonerBS]

I don't like betting Nevada on the road. I was actually thinking of taking Notre Dame in that matchup. That bowl game of Notre Dame's should gush confidence into their offense for the first part of the season. Defensively I look for them to be solid. They recruit too many good players not to be decent. Plus, I think this is Weiss's final season if he doesn't impress some fans with some stellar wins. This should be a Notre Dame bet or nothing IMO.

 

[russ1945]

That locks Nevada in for me.

 

[SoonerBS]

GS, the more I look into the BYU/Oklahoma opener, the more I lean to Oklahoma being a good play. Of course, a lot of it will depend on what kind of line we get, but they have not played against a hurry up offense like Oklahoma will throw at them, AND they have a very green offensive line that will have to take on one of the best defensive lines in the nation.

BYU has some good skill players returning on offense and they have 8 players returning on defense. Oklahoma will not be overlooking BYU in this game at all and neither will BYU be overlooking Oklahoma, but last year BYU did not play on the road well at all, even in games they won. This will be more of a "home field advantage" for Oklahoma than it will be for BYU because you know that Oklahoma fans are going to turn out.

If BYU still has the "mental thing" going with playing in big games that they had last year, this game will get ugly for them. But, even if they don't, I think Oklahoma will be too much of a team for them to handle even with Oklahoma's question marks on the offensive line and the defensive backfield.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, the more I look into the BYU/Oklahoma opener, the more I lean to Oklahoma being a good play. Of course, a lot of it will depend on what kind of line we get, but they have not played against a hurry up offense like Oklahoma will throw at them, AND they have a very green offensive line that will have to take on one of the best defensive lines in the nation.

BYU has some good skill players returning on offense and they have 8 players returning on defense. Oklahoma will not be overlooking BYU in this game at all and neither will BYU be overlooking Oklahoma, but last year BYU did not play on the road well at all, even in games they won. This will be more of a "home field advantage" for Oklahoma than it will be for BYU because you know that Oklahoma fans are going to turn out.

If BYU still has the "mental thing" going with playing in big games that they had last year, this game will get ugly for them. But, even if they don't, I think Oklahoma will be too much of a team for them to handle even with Oklahoma's question marks on the offensive line and the defensive backfield.

BS....BYU doesn't scare me in the least. I think OU pounds them. The only thing I'm afraid of is the OU hype machine going to work and making them too big of favorites. I'm hoping for -24 or less. But I'm betting it could be more.

 

[SoonerBS]

GS, I think Oklahoma State may have their hands full in the opener against Georgia. Georgia had a ton of players injured and "in and out" of action last year, but they are all healthy now. Part of that mix is the offensive line -- they should be experienced, deep and much improved over last year's squad.

Now, there is the subject of who is going to replace the skill players? Stafford is gone, but Joe Cox is a 5th year QB who should be solid if not as talented as Stafford. The coaches and players have a lot of confidence in Cox and I see him similar to a Paul Thompson -- solid and few mistakes.

They're still looking for a TB to replace Knoshawn Moreno, but I think whoever they come up with should do well behind that offensive line. Especially against Oklahoma State's depleted defensive line.

Defensivley, Georgia will likely be solid again as Mark Richt always seems to field a decent defense. They have not set all the defensive starters in stone yet, but again, they are talented enough to find players to fill the spots.

I know that this is a better Oklahoma State team that went to Athens two years ago, but teams that are tough and play smash mouth offense and defense tend to do well against Oklahoma State. I also like the fact that Georgia's all-stars are gone and they can get down to a more "team like" concept. Also, Oklahoma State is getting the hype this year, just like they did two years ago in this game, and should be favored at home. I really think this is shaping up to be a good bet on Georgia in this opener.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, I think Oklahoma State may have their hands full in the opener against Georgia. Georgia had a ton of players injured and "in and out" of action last year, but they are all healthy now. Part of that mix is the offensive line -- they should be experienced, deep and much improved over last year's squad.

Now, there is the subject of who is going to replace the skill players? Stafford is gone, but Joe Cox is a 5th year QB who should be solid if not as talented as Stafford. The coaches and players have a lot of confidence in Cox and I see him similar to a Paul Thompson -- solid and few mistakes.

They're still looking for a TB to replace Knoshawn Moreno, but I think whoever they come up with should do well behind that offensive line. Especially against Oklahoma State's depleted defensive line.

Defensivley, Georgia will likely be solid again as Mark Richt always seems to field a decent defense. They have not set all the defensive starters in stone yet, but again, they are talented enough to find players to fill the spots.

I know that this is a better Oklahoma State team that went to Athens two years ago, but teams that are tough and play smash mouth offense and defense tend to do well against Oklahoma State. I also like the fact that Georgia's all-stars are gone and they can get down to a more "team like" concept. Also, Oklahoma State is getting the hype this year, just like they did two years ago in this game, and should be favored at home. I really think this is shaping up to be a good bet on Georgia in this opener.

BS...Go back to post #25 in this thread that I posted last week about this game and tell me what you think. I don't disagree with anything you said here. It makes sense. But in this particular game I think the line is going to be a HUGE factor. The totals as well for me.

 

[russ1945]

Geo/OSU

LY Georgia gave up an avg of 24.5 ppg while OSU gave up 28 ppg. OSU returns starters who accounted for 37 ppg LY while Georgia returns starters who accounted for 13 ppg (quite a disparity). I don't know how many starts the Georgia QB has, much less on the road, but knowing Young he is going to stack the box and make the Georgia QB beat him.
Take into consideration the heat, the travel, the pressure of being on national TV, and Young throwing the book at Georgia, I see this game as a potential under and OSU possibly pulling more than 3 points in the process.