On The Hop's 2015-16 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

Lesson 1: Do not pick games when you don't feel well and have it coming out of both ends.

Lesson 2: You're never as good as your best season and never as bad as your worst season.

Lesson 3: Don't eat yellow snow.

Lesson 4: It is fatal to confuse a temporary setback with a final defeat. This has been an awful year. Worst season I've had in any sport, any time. That being said, it's not over. The comeback starts tonight.

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/17/2015:

48-69-5/-24.28u

St. Louis Rams -1 (-110), 2 units: Better defense, better special teams, at home on a short week. Offense seemed to improve slightly last week with the change of coordinators. I'll guess the D wants to make every effort possible to shut down Winston so their teammate Gurley has a better shot at offensive rookie of the year and their effort will be the difference.

 

[indiana]

Hop.........here's to a great turn around........BOL with tonight's action...........indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks indy...appreciate the continued support.

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/19/2015:

49-69-5 /-22.28u

New York Jets -3 (-130), 1 unit: It's square but I just don't see what the Cowboys have to play for. They're without two starters on defense and I'm not sure how they move the ball on offense. The Jets have found a nice rhythm on offense and I would expect it to continue tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

Sometimes it pays to buy the hook.

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/20/2015:

49-65-6/-22.28u

Denver Broncos +7 (-125), 1 unit: Nice buy low opportunity on the best defense in football. Steelers D is not good and while they can score with anyone I have a hard time giving up 7 against a D this good.
Baltimore Ravens +7 (-125), 1 unit: Chiefs are on a nice roll but a nice piece of that is due to turnovers which tend to even out. Other than last week against the Seahawks, the Ravens have been in every game.
Chicago Bears +6 (-120), 1 unit: Bears have been much better on the road than at home. Cutler seems to relax more and when he does that their offense rolls. Vikings are beaten up on defense and while I expect them to win the game it seems like every time these teams play it comes down to a FG.
Green Bay Packers -4 (-110), 1 unit: Getting some value with GB due to Oakland's win over Denver where Denver dropped approximately 231 passes. Packers have committed to the run and Lacy finally seems like he's healthy. Combine that with Oakland's secondary which should struggle against Rodgers and I'll take the team chasing a division title.
San Francisco 49ers +7 (-125), 1 unit: Easy to say this play is about Dalton not being available but it's more than that. Niners have been solid at home this season and their D seems to play at a different level. Bengals are definitely the better team and I expect them to walk out with a win but I think the home team keeps it inside the number.

 

[OnTheHop]

Arizona Cardinals -3 (-140), 2 units: Tough to give points on the road to a team rolling like the Eagles. A few things lead me to do it: First, the Cardinals are rested, coming off a Thursday night game. Second, how impressive is the Eagles win streak? They beat the Patriots but got every bounce and break in the books. Then they beat the Bills and I'm not sure beating the Bills at home in a struggle is as impressive as it originally looked. Third, I'm not sure how the Eagles move the ball. Their WR will not get separation against the Cardinals corners and their run game has been mediocre at best. Meanwhile I expect to see the Cardinals receivers running free most of the night and when all is said and done I think the Cards win this one.

 

[OnTheHop]

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/24/2015:

51-68-7 -24.23u

San Diego Chargers +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Raiders have not been good at home as "large" favorites. Chargers, for all their faults, have been in most games this year, especially on the road. Look for a determined Brown and versatile Woodhead to make the difference. Raiders likely win this one but not by much.

 

[OnTheHop]

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/26/2015:

52-68-7 -23.23u

Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110), 1 unit: Redskins are one win against a bad Bears team from being winless on the road. They're two games removed from losing at home to a bad Dallas team. Those two games are against the aforementioned Bears and a sliding Bills team. The Eagles have been much better with Bradford under center. Look for them to try and attack a weak Redskins run defense and we might even see the re-emergence of Demarco Murray tonight. Philadelphia has a chance to win the division and have to have this one tonight, expect them to play like it.

 

[OnTheHop]

Trying something a little different this week. Yes, the easy joke here would be "winning?"

Cleveland Browns +11 (-110), 1 unit: I'm sure my keyboard may explode after I type this but.....I actually like what Manziel brings to this team. He has some nice options at TE and RB and while their D is not good, the Chiefs aren't an explosive team that is likely to run them off the field. If the Browns can keep the turnovers down I like their chances to keep this within the number.
New York Jets +3 (-115), 1 unit: Jets seem to be finding a way to do just enough each week. Every time these teams play it's a close game. I like the Jets chances to establish the run and control the clock. The Patriots injuries have to catch up to them at some point in time. SJax will help but he cannot be ready to carry the ball more than a few times. Feels like a FG game either way.
Arizona Cardinals -4 (-120), 3 units: Green Bay beats Dallas at home and struggles with Oakland on the road and now all is right with the world? The Packers have all sorts of problems with their secondary and still cannot run the ball. The Cardinals have to hold off the Packers for the #2 seed and in my mind they have too many weapons for a Green Bay team that just hasn't looked right all year.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3/St. Louis Rams +18.5 (-120), 2 units
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5/Detroit Lions -3 (-120), 2 units

 

[OnTheHop]

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/27/2015:

55-68-7 -23.63u

Minnesota Vikings -7 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 12/28/2015:

56-68-7 -22.63u

Denver Broncos -4 (-110), 1 unit: McCarron has looked ok against a bad Pitt D (hello Ryan Mallett) and a mediocre SF D. He's not ready to go on the road, at altitude against a defense this good. Broncos offense hasn't been anything special either. However, look for the home crowd and tough D to make it hard on Cincy, to give Denver a couple of short fields and for the Broncos to take advantage.

 

[OnTheHop]

Buffalo +3 (-135), 2u

 

[OnTheHop]

THE ROAD TO REGAIN RESPECT TOUR as of 1/3/2016

56-69-7 -21.73u

Green Bay Packers -3 (-110), 2 units

 

[OnTheHop]

REGULAR SEASON: 56-70-7 -23.93u

PLAYOFFS 0-0 +0

Houston Texans +3 (-105), 3 units: No one hotter than the Chiefs. However, give me the better defense, at home, against Andy Reid and the Chiefs in the playoffs and I'll take it every time. I think this is a low scoring, tight game and I'll gladly grab the points.

 

[OnTheHop]

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5/Green Bay Packers +7.5 (+100), 2 units: Both of these games seem too evenly matched for either team to be getting more than a TD. Even if the Steelers or Redskins get up early they don't have the run game to shorten the clock which would leave the backdoor open.

 

[OnTheHop]

REGULAR SEASON 56-70-7 -23.93u

PLAYOFFS 0-1 -3.3

FUTURES PENDING: Seahawks to win Super Bowl (+725), 1 unit, Steelers to win Super Bowl (+1200), 1 unit My mistake for not posting the futures....played them on 12/14/15.

​Seattle Seahawks -4 (-110), 2 units

 

[OnTheHop]

Washington Redskins -1 (-110), 1 unit: Been so cold. Have to try and middle it or hedge the forthcoming loss.

Green Bay Packers & Washington Redskins o47.5 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

REGULAR SEASON 56-70-7 -23.93u

PLAYOFFS 2-3 -3.6

FUTURES PENDING: Seahawks to win Super Bowl (+725), 1 unit, Steelers to win Super Bowl (+1200), 1 unit

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 (-125), 2 units: Clear that I played this one at the wrong time. My guess was that Brown and Rothlisberger were both going to play so I made this play early in the week. Misread that one completely. You can see my damage control below.

New England Patriots +1/Denver Broncos -1.5 (+100), 2 units: Hoping the Patriots win and then I can hedge out of my bad Steelers bet with a possible middle. New England worries me but there are a few factors in their favor. First, the Chiefs are really beaten up. Maclin, Hali, Houston are all hurt. Second, the Pats are healthier than they've been in awhile with Edelman ready, Gronk allegedly ready and the D back to almost full strength. Third, Brady and Belichick in the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals -1/Seattle Seahawks +8.5 (+100), 2 units: This one isn't really about the Cardinals as it is about the Seahawks. I don't see many scenarios in the Cardinals game other than a big Cards win. The Packers are getting too much credit for their win over a bad Redskins team. This is the same team that got destroyed in Arizona less than a month ago. However, I needed a way to get over a TD with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are certainly lucky to have advanced but they were also the hottest team in football going into the game in Minnesota which has to be taken with a grain of salt due to the weather. Getting more than a TD with either side in this game feels like the right play.

 

[OnTheHop]

REGULAR SEASON 56-70-7 -23.93u

PLAYOFFS 4-3-1 +.04

FUTURES: -2

New England Patriots -3 (-110), 3 units: The only thing I hate about this game is that it just seems way too obvious. Whenever a game seems this obvious to me and Joe Public is all over it it never works out well. That being said, I can't help myself. Admittedly there is value in getting the Denver D at home and points. However, the mismatch everywhere else is too much for me to ignore. The Broncos were essentially beaten until a late turnover by a Steelers team without Brown and a less than 100% Rothlisberger. I think the Patriots stuff 8 in the box and dare Manning to beat them. I don't think the Broncos can keep their O on the field and their D gets run down late allowing the Patriots to pull away.

Arizona Cardinals +3 (-110), 2 units: I've been picking against the Panthers all year and that's worked out really well. Nonetheless, I have to back the Cardinals in this spot. They've been terrific on the road. They've played a much tougher schedule than the Panthers. The biggest thing to me is that I trust their secondary to play man against the WRs which will allow them to roll a safety to Olsen who is Newton's safety blanket. If they can take him away they can slow down the Carolina offense. Conversely while Norman may be the best corner in the league I don't think their secondary matches up well with Arizona's other WR's. Finally I'll take Arians over Rivera any day.

 

[indiana]

Hop........lov N.E............good luck with your action...........indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Arizona Cardinals (+140), 1 unit