37-34-3 +2.3
Virginia Tech Hokies +2 (-102), 1 unit: This line makes no sense to me. The Hokies are fantastic at home on Thursday nights. To be fair they've been mediocre since their win in Columbus. To also be fair, the Hurricanes have been mediocre since Golden arrived in Coral Gables. This Miami team is not ready to go on the road in a tough environment and win a game like this.
Virginia Tech Hokies +2 (-102), 1 unit: This line makes no sense to me. The Hokies are fantastic at home on Thursday nights. To be fair they've been mediocre since their win in Columbus. To also be fair, the Hurricanes have been mediocre since Golden arrived in Coral Gables. This Miami team is not ready to go on the road in a tough environment and win a game like this.
37-35-3 +1.28
BYU Cougars +7, 1/2 unit: No doubt that the Cougars are in a tailspin with Hill being hurt. However, they still have two things going for them. First, they have a strong defense. Second, they have their star RB returning to help take some of the load off of Stewart. Losing to Nevada is rough but hopefully they won't turn the ball over like they did last week. The Broncos are always good at home but this is a non-conference game against a "diminished" opponent which could cause them to letdown. Only 1/2 a unit in case Williams does not play tonight.
California Golden Bears +17.5 (-102), 1 unit: Look at the teams that have given the Ducks trouble this year, Arizona and Washington State. Both teams throw the ball all over the place and play really up tempo, just like the Golden Bears. This Cal team is a few plays away from 6-1 and in a game that should go up and down the field they have enough firepower to stay within the number.
BYU Cougars +7, 1/2 unit: No doubt that the Cougars are in a tailspin with Hill being hurt. However, they still have two things going for them. First, they have a strong defense. Second, they have their star RB returning to help take some of the load off of Stewart. Losing to Nevada is rough but hopefully they won't turn the ball over like they did last week. The Broncos are always good at home but this is a non-conference game against a "diminished" opponent which could cause them to letdown. Only 1/2 a unit in case Williams does not play tonight.
California Golden Bears +17.5 (-102), 1 unit: Look at the teams that have given the Ducks trouble this year, Arizona and Washington State. Both teams throw the ball all over the place and play really up tempo, just like the Golden Bears. This Cal team is a few plays away from 6-1 and in a game that should go up and down the field they have enough firepower to stay within the number.
Mississippi Rebels -3 (-125), 1 unit: This Rebels D is one I've had my eye on for a few seasons. They are more and more impressive every time I see them. While playing in Baton Rouge at night is brutal this Tiger team is missing something. Ole Miss makes it too tough to score and does enough on offense to cover the number.
Washington State Cougars +2.5 (-105), 1 unit: First things first, I messed up by not buying the hook. Hopefully it won't cost me. This number stinks. The Wildcats only have one loss and they won a game at Oregon. On the other hand the Cougars have been close a bunch of times but only have two wins on the year. Anytime a number stinks like this, there is usually a reason. I'll hope that the high powered Wazzu offense can do enough to keep them in this game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +23 (-104), 1/2 unit: Playing this for the situation. No, not the guy from Jersey Shore. The Horned Frogs are coming off two huge games and have to go to West Virginia next week. The Red Raiders are nothing special but they can put points on the board. My hope is TCU is looking ahead a little and Texas Tech can do just enough to stay within the number.
Alabama Birmingham Blazers +27 (-102), 1/2 unit: This writeup is going to look familiar. Playing this for the situation. No, not the guy from Jersey Shore. The Razorbacks are coming off three huge games and have Mississippi State on tap. The Blazers are nothing special but they can put points on the board. My hope is Arkansas is looking ahead a little and UAB can do just enough to stay within the number.
Colorado Buffaloes +14 (-105), 1 unit: The Bruins are still living off the pre-season hype. They've done a lot of surviving and getting away with turnovers. That cannot continue. The Buffaloes showed a lot in continuing to battle last week against USC. They're starting to regain a home field advantage and they can put points on the board. They may not win but they should have a chance to stay within the number the whole day.
Navy Midshipmen -9 (-102), 1 unit: The Midshipmen are getting healthy and unlike in years past the Spartans don't have the firepower to stay with Navy. San Jose State had an overtime battle last week. Now they have to travel across the country for an early start against a Midshipmen squad coming off a bye week.
North Carolina Tar Heels +7, 1 unit: You can see the Tar Heels getting better each time they take the field. While I don't expect much from their defense, their offense is clicking on all cylinders. On the other side of the ball the Cavaliers have a very stingy defense and a so-so offense. I think North Carolina can continue to put points on the board and that Virginia may have trouble keeping up.
Washington State Cougars +2.5 (-105), 1 unit: First things first, I messed up by not buying the hook. Hopefully it won't cost me. This number stinks. The Wildcats only have one loss and they won a game at Oregon. On the other hand the Cougars have been close a bunch of times but only have two wins on the year. Anytime a number stinks like this, there is usually a reason. I'll hope that the high powered Wazzu offense can do enough to keep them in this game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +23 (-104), 1/2 unit: Playing this for the situation. No, not the guy from Jersey Shore. The Horned Frogs are coming off two huge games and have to go to West Virginia next week. The Red Raiders are nothing special but they can put points on the board. My hope is TCU is looking ahead a little and Texas Tech can do just enough to stay within the number.
Alabama Birmingham Blazers +27 (-102), 1/2 unit: This writeup is going to look familiar. Playing this for the situation. No, not the guy from Jersey Shore. The Razorbacks are coming off three huge games and have Mississippi State on tap. The Blazers are nothing special but they can put points on the board. My hope is Arkansas is looking ahead a little and UAB can do just enough to stay within the number.
Colorado Buffaloes +14 (-105), 1 unit: The Bruins are still living off the pre-season hype. They've done a lot of surviving and getting away with turnovers. That cannot continue. The Buffaloes showed a lot in continuing to battle last week against USC. They're starting to regain a home field advantage and they can put points on the board. They may not win but they should have a chance to stay within the number the whole day.
Navy Midshipmen -9 (-102), 1 unit: The Midshipmen are getting healthy and unlike in years past the Spartans don't have the firepower to stay with Navy. San Jose State had an overtime battle last week. Now they have to travel across the country for an early start against a Midshipmen squad coming off a bye week.
North Carolina Tar Heels +7, 1 unit: You can see the Tar Heels getting better each time they take the field. While I don't expect much from their defense, their offense is clicking on all cylinders. On the other side of the ball the Cavaliers have a very stingy defense and a so-so offense. I think North Carolina can continue to put points on the board and that Virginia may have trouble keeping up.
40-42-3 -1.15
Florida State Seminoles -3 (-125), 1 unit: The line has plummeted. All the experts say the play is the Cardinals and their tough defense. I don't see it. I know it is brutal to play a highly ranked favorite on the road on Thursday night. However the mismatch between these two teams is vast. The tough Louisville defense has faced....no one. The Seminoles do not rank highly in any categories except one, the "F-You it's us against the world" factor. This team somehow perseveres regardless of the drama, regardless of the situation, etc.....A lot of people are calling for the upset here and in my experience while that happens occasionally, more often than not the better team uses it as motivation and finds a way to win. I think Winston has one of those "Tecmo Bowl" games where he simply takes over and wills his team to a victory.
Florida State Seminoles -3 (-125), 1 unit: The line has plummeted. All the experts say the play is the Cardinals and their tough defense. I don't see it. I know it is brutal to play a highly ranked favorite on the road on Thursday night. However the mismatch between these two teams is vast. The tough Louisville defense has faced....no one. The Seminoles do not rank highly in any categories except one, the "F-You it's us against the world" factor. This team somehow perseveres regardless of the drama, regardless of the situation, etc.....A lot of people are calling for the upset here and in my experience while that happens occasionally, more often than not the better team uses it as motivation and finds a way to win. I think Winston has one of those "Tecmo Bowl" games where he simply takes over and wills his team to a victory.
41-42-3 -.15
Maryland Terrapins +4 (-120), 1 unit: Getting some value here after the Terrapins got hammered last week. Until that point they were one of the best teams in the country on the road and they simply caught the Badgers firing on all cylinders. The Nittany Lions are going to have a tough time getting up for this game after their OT loss last week in prime time. Maryland can't stop the run but Penn State can't run the ball with their O Line. It's going to be a close, tight game and I'll grab the team with better special teams getting points.
Arizona Wildcats +7 (-115), 1 unit: The Wildcats are a play away from being undefeated. What really impressed me was that in a potential trap game they went into Pullman and destroyed the Cougars. The Bruins continue to win but they are really just squeaking by somehow and I'm not impressed with what I've seen. This game should go up and down the field and getting the better team and points, even on the road, is appealing.
Utah Utes +7 (-115), 1 unit: The emergence of Booker brings a nice new dimension to this Utes squad. Everyone seems to run for 200 yards against the Sun Devils and I don't expect this to be any different. The combination of the run game and the best special teams in the country will keep Utah in this game throughout.
TCU Horned Frogs -3 (-125), 1/2 unit: Frankly nothing about the Mountaineers impresses me. They played the Crimson Tide close but it was early in the year. They beat the Bears at home when Baylor turned it over 34 times. The Horned Frogs have been dominant in every game they've played except for 15 minutes at Baylor. I'm keeping the play small because the weather conditions worry me.
Navy Midshipmen +14.5 (-105), 1 unit: Potential sandwich game for the Fighting Irish, coming off the tough loss to the Seminoles and with the Sun Devils on tap. The Midshipmen always seem to give Notre Dame trouble and Reynolds has the offense starting to click. Getting more than 2 TD's should leave the backdoor open all game which mitigates some of the fear of Navy getting down early and not being able to catch up.
North Carolina Tar Heels +15 (-105), 2 units: It's the time of year where Fedora's teams start to fire on all cylinders. This Tar Heel squad is no different. They've won their last two and hung with Notre Dame in the game prior to that. The D is improving and the offense is explosive. The Hurricanes are on a nice little streak of their own but that was against a bad Bearcats team and a Hokie squad with no offensive capabilities. Two TD's+ seems like an awful lot to give in a game where there will be no home field advantage and little difference between the two offenses. Also a big advantage on the coaching front for North Carolina.
Purdue Boilermakers +23.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Boilermakers have shown a ton of improvement in their last two games, at the Spartans and at the Gophers. Appleby has given Purdue a new dimension, the ability to move the ball. The Cornhuskers have been winning games on the offensive side of the ball, not with their D. It's a lot of points to give up when your D is struggling and your opponent is coming off a bye week.
Auburn Tigers +1.5 (-105), 1/2 unit: If for some reason you read this drivel you know I think the Tigers have a horseshoe up their ass. However, in looking at this game it seems to me that Auburn is better in all phases of the game. The Rebels are beaten up on defense and have to be a little shaken after last week's loss in Death Valley. I'm keeping it small because as I said, I am waiting for the Tigers luck to run out and hoping that it's not this week.
Kentucky Wildcats +8 (-105), 1 unit: The Wildcats showed a lot last week losing to the best team in the country but battling them the whole way. Stoops has this team playing very good football and they had to gain a ton of confidence even in a loss. The Tigers are being vastly overrated due to their blowout of the Gators. Take a closer look, somehow they won big but were outgained by an inept Florida offense. Their efforts at home this year have been suspect, losing to the Hoosiers and even though they won last week they struggled with an awful Commodores squad. They don't have enough playmakers to pull away from Kentucky and getting more than a TD is a nice bonus.
Florida Gators +10.5 (-105), 1 unit: Hold your nose and swallow hard with this pick. My thinking here is that Harris gives the Gators a different dimension at QB and they can put at least a few points on the board. Their D has been relatively good all year and in a rivalry game this just feels like too many points.
Oregon Ducks -8 (-105), 1/2 unit: Just like my pick of the Tigers above, if you read this stuff you know how I feel about the Ducks. It always seems like they are favored by too much and any time I play them they lose or don't cover. That being said, something about the Cardinal this year just looks different. They don't seem as tough, as confident and they continue to make bad mistakes with penalties and turnovers. Keeping it a small play due to my horrible luck with Oregon.
Maryland Terrapins +4 (-120), 1 unit: Getting some value here after the Terrapins got hammered last week. Until that point they were one of the best teams in the country on the road and they simply caught the Badgers firing on all cylinders. The Nittany Lions are going to have a tough time getting up for this game after their OT loss last week in prime time. Maryland can't stop the run but Penn State can't run the ball with their O Line. It's going to be a close, tight game and I'll grab the team with better special teams getting points.
Arizona Wildcats +7 (-115), 1 unit: The Wildcats are a play away from being undefeated. What really impressed me was that in a potential trap game they went into Pullman and destroyed the Cougars. The Bruins continue to win but they are really just squeaking by somehow and I'm not impressed with what I've seen. This game should go up and down the field and getting the better team and points, even on the road, is appealing.
Utah Utes +7 (-115), 1 unit: The emergence of Booker brings a nice new dimension to this Utes squad. Everyone seems to run for 200 yards against the Sun Devils and I don't expect this to be any different. The combination of the run game and the best special teams in the country will keep Utah in this game throughout.
TCU Horned Frogs -3 (-125), 1/2 unit: Frankly nothing about the Mountaineers impresses me. They played the Crimson Tide close but it was early in the year. They beat the Bears at home when Baylor turned it over 34 times. The Horned Frogs have been dominant in every game they've played except for 15 minutes at Baylor. I'm keeping the play small because the weather conditions worry me.
Navy Midshipmen +14.5 (-105), 1 unit: Potential sandwich game for the Fighting Irish, coming off the tough loss to the Seminoles and with the Sun Devils on tap. The Midshipmen always seem to give Notre Dame trouble and Reynolds has the offense starting to click. Getting more than 2 TD's should leave the backdoor open all game which mitigates some of the fear of Navy getting down early and not being able to catch up.
North Carolina Tar Heels +15 (-105), 2 units: It's the time of year where Fedora's teams start to fire on all cylinders. This Tar Heel squad is no different. They've won their last two and hung with Notre Dame in the game prior to that. The D is improving and the offense is explosive. The Hurricanes are on a nice little streak of their own but that was against a bad Bearcats team and a Hokie squad with no offensive capabilities. Two TD's+ seems like an awful lot to give in a game where there will be no home field advantage and little difference between the two offenses. Also a big advantage on the coaching front for North Carolina.
Purdue Boilermakers +23.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Boilermakers have shown a ton of improvement in their last two games, at the Spartans and at the Gophers. Appleby has given Purdue a new dimension, the ability to move the ball. The Cornhuskers have been winning games on the offensive side of the ball, not with their D. It's a lot of points to give up when your D is struggling and your opponent is coming off a bye week.
Auburn Tigers +1.5 (-105), 1/2 unit: If for some reason you read this drivel you know I think the Tigers have a horseshoe up their ass. However, in looking at this game it seems to me that Auburn is better in all phases of the game. The Rebels are beaten up on defense and have to be a little shaken after last week's loss in Death Valley. I'm keeping it small because as I said, I am waiting for the Tigers luck to run out and hoping that it's not this week.
Kentucky Wildcats +8 (-105), 1 unit: The Wildcats showed a lot last week losing to the best team in the country but battling them the whole way. Stoops has this team playing very good football and they had to gain a ton of confidence even in a loss. The Tigers are being vastly overrated due to their blowout of the Gators. Take a closer look, somehow they won big but were outgained by an inept Florida offense. Their efforts at home this year have been suspect, losing to the Hoosiers and even though they won last week they struggled with an awful Commodores squad. They don't have enough playmakers to pull away from Kentucky and getting more than a TD is a nice bonus.
Florida Gators +10.5 (-105), 1 unit: Hold your nose and swallow hard with this pick. My thinking here is that Harris gives the Gators a different dimension at QB and they can put at least a few points on the board. Their D has been relatively good all year and in a rivalry game this just feels like too many points.
Oregon Ducks -8 (-105), 1/2 unit: Just like my pick of the Tigers above, if you read this stuff you know how I feel about the Ducks. It always seems like they are favored by too much and any time I play them they lose or don't cover. That being said, something about the Cardinal this year just looks different. They don't seem as tough, as confident and they continue to make bad mistakes with penalties and turnovers. Keeping it a small play due to my horrible luck with Oregon.
48-46-3 +.93
Ball State Cardinals +3 (+100), 1 unit: Huskies favored here due to name recognition and beating up on a very weak MAC schedule. Cardinals on a bit of a roll, winning on the road and then getting a big comeback win at home. Momentum, a coaching advantage and home field has me taking the points.
Ball State Cardinals +3 (+100), 1 unit: Huskies favored here due to name recognition and beating up on a very weak MAC schedule. Cardinals on a bit of a roll, winning on the road and then getting a big comeback win at home. Momentum, a coaching advantage and home field has me taking the points.
48-47-3 -.07
Minnesota Golden Gophers PK, 1 unit: Tough to back a Gopher squad that lost at Illinois last time out against a Hawkeye team that seems to be finding their offensive rhythm. However, Minnesota has two things going for them: first, they should be well rested off the bye and eager to show their loss was a fluke and second, they are about to hit a brutal stretch in their schedule and this is their best chance to get a win. I expect to see an exceptional effort from the home team.
Washington Huskies +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Bruins surprised me last week beating the Wildcats but in my mind they are still on the verge of being a dumpster fire. UCLA doesn't do anything particularly well. While I am concerned about the Huskies ability to score, their defense will keep them within striking distance.
LSU Tigers +7 (-115), 1/2 unit: In my mind the Crimson Tide are the best team in the country. However, if you give me Les "Horseshoe Up My Ass" Miles, at night, at home with that defense and getting 7 I have to take it. Take a closer look at Alabama's results when they aren't monster favorites. Not that impressive. It's worth a shot.
Michigan State Spartans -3 (-125), 1 unit: This Spartan squad is still going to end up in the playoff. They have one loss, against the Ducks, on the road in a game that they were dominating for 2.5 quarters. The difference in this team and MSU squads of the past is their offense is potent and they don't need their D to pitch a shutout to win. If Barrett struggled on the road, at night in Happy Valley what do you think will happen in East Lansing?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +3 (-120), 1 unit: The team that the Sun Devils have played that most resembles the Fighting Irish? The Bruins, and we all saw what happened in that game. Golson is going to give Arizona State fits all day. Kelly just hasn't looked like himself since he came back from injury and there are really mismatches all over the field talent wise. As long as they can handle the heat, Notre Dame walks out of Tempe with a win.
Kentucky Wildcats +10.5 (-108), 1/2 unit: Often times when a team can no longer achieve a goal there is a huge letdown the following week. Last week the Bulldogs were eliminated from the playoff and are now dependent on a Tiger loss just to get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. This Wildcat team is slowing down but they can score enough to stay within the number.
Texas Longhorns +3 (-102), 1 unit: The Mountaineers are the team that has surprised me the most this year. Holgerson has done an incredible job but I just don't think West Virginia has anything left in the tank after their last few games and a tough travel schedule. The Longhorns are starting to buy in to Coach Strong's system and methodology and their D and running game will keep them in this one.
Utah Utes +8 (-105), 1 unit: The only way to hang around with the Ducks is to be able to tackle in space and have excellent special teams play to control field position. The Utes have both of those things going for them. I don't think they win but at altitude, on grass I will grab the points and the home squad.
Minnesota Golden Gophers PK, 1 unit: Tough to back a Gopher squad that lost at Illinois last time out against a Hawkeye team that seems to be finding their offensive rhythm. However, Minnesota has two things going for them: first, they should be well rested off the bye and eager to show their loss was a fluke and second, they are about to hit a brutal stretch in their schedule and this is their best chance to get a win. I expect to see an exceptional effort from the home team.
Washington Huskies +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Bruins surprised me last week beating the Wildcats but in my mind they are still on the verge of being a dumpster fire. UCLA doesn't do anything particularly well. While I am concerned about the Huskies ability to score, their defense will keep them within striking distance.
LSU Tigers +7 (-115), 1/2 unit: In my mind the Crimson Tide are the best team in the country. However, if you give me Les "Horseshoe Up My Ass" Miles, at night, at home with that defense and getting 7 I have to take it. Take a closer look at Alabama's results when they aren't monster favorites. Not that impressive. It's worth a shot.
Michigan State Spartans -3 (-125), 1 unit: This Spartan squad is still going to end up in the playoff. They have one loss, against the Ducks, on the road in a game that they were dominating for 2.5 quarters. The difference in this team and MSU squads of the past is their offense is potent and they don't need their D to pitch a shutout to win. If Barrett struggled on the road, at night in Happy Valley what do you think will happen in East Lansing?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +3 (-120), 1 unit: The team that the Sun Devils have played that most resembles the Fighting Irish? The Bruins, and we all saw what happened in that game. Golson is going to give Arizona State fits all day. Kelly just hasn't looked like himself since he came back from injury and there are really mismatches all over the field talent wise. As long as they can handle the heat, Notre Dame walks out of Tempe with a win.
Kentucky Wildcats +10.5 (-108), 1/2 unit: Often times when a team can no longer achieve a goal there is a huge letdown the following week. Last week the Bulldogs were eliminated from the playoff and are now dependent on a Tiger loss just to get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. This Wildcat team is slowing down but they can score enough to stay within the number.
Texas Longhorns +3 (-102), 1 unit: The Mountaineers are the team that has surprised me the most this year. Holgerson has done an incredible job but I just don't think West Virginia has anything left in the tank after their last few games and a tough travel schedule. The Longhorns are starting to buy in to Coach Strong's system and methodology and their D and running game will keep them in this one.
Utah Utes +8 (-105), 1 unit: The only way to hang around with the Ducks is to be able to tackle in space and have excellent special teams play to control field position. The Utes have both of those things going for them. I don't think they win but at altitude, on grass I will grab the points and the home squad.
50-52-4 -3.31
Miami Hurricanes +3 (-120), 1 unit: The Seminoles have found a way to win even with less than their best. That stops on Saturday night. The Hurricanes have the ability to run the ball with Johnson and have enough speed on defense to stay with Florida State.
Wisconsin Badgers -6 (-120), 1 unit: Two teams that are fairly similar on offense. The Huskers have a slight edge on special teams. The Badgers have a big edge on defense, on their coaching staff and are at home. Look for a crazy Camp Randall to carry the home team to a win.
Temple Owls +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a play against an inconsistent Nittany Lions offense. I'm not sure they have enough to pull away from a tough Owls defense. Seems like a low scoring game and double digits feels like a lot.
Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 (-120), 1 unit: A couple of reasons to back the Bulldogs. First, tough bounce back situation for the Crimson Tide after an emotional win at LSU. Second, look at the games Alabama has played against "good" teams. The results are wins but none are overly impressive. MSU is questionable on defense but they have more than enough offense to stay in this one
South Carolina Gamecocks +7 (-105), 1 unit: All of a sudden the Gators are world beaters? This is a lot of points for a team that can't throw the ball to give up. The Gamecocks have 5 losses but could have won 4 of those games. They are coming off a bye, Spurrier is coming home and I like their chances to keep it inside the number.
Utah Utes +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Utes were set up to beat Oregon last week until the bonehead play that cost them 14 points (7 of their own and 7 for the Ducks). The Cardinal are not the Ducks. They don't have the firepower to pull away from Utah. Combine that with the Utes big advantage on special teams and I expect this one to stay close.
Miami Hurricanes +3 (-120), 1 unit: The Seminoles have found a way to win even with less than their best. That stops on Saturday night. The Hurricanes have the ability to run the ball with Johnson and have enough speed on defense to stay with Florida State.
Wisconsin Badgers -6 (-120), 1 unit: Two teams that are fairly similar on offense. The Huskers have a slight edge on special teams. The Badgers have a big edge on defense, on their coaching staff and are at home. Look for a crazy Camp Randall to carry the home team to a win.
Temple Owls +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a play against an inconsistent Nittany Lions offense. I'm not sure they have enough to pull away from a tough Owls defense. Seems like a low scoring game and double digits feels like a lot.
Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 (-120), 1 unit: A couple of reasons to back the Bulldogs. First, tough bounce back situation for the Crimson Tide after an emotional win at LSU. Second, look at the games Alabama has played against "good" teams. The results are wins but none are overly impressive. MSU is questionable on defense but they have more than enough offense to stay in this one
South Carolina Gamecocks +7 (-105), 1 unit: All of a sudden the Gators are world beaters? This is a lot of points for a team that can't throw the ball to give up. The Gamecocks have 5 losses but could have won 4 of those games. They are coming off a bye, Spurrier is coming home and I like their chances to keep it inside the number.
Utah Utes +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Utes were set up to beat Oregon last week until the bonehead play that cost them 14 points (7 of their own and 7 for the Ducks). The Cardinal are not the Ducks. They don't have the firepower to pull away from Utah. Combine that with the Utes big advantage on special teams and I expect this one to stay close.
54-54-4 -1.61
Iowa State Cyclones -1 (-110), 1 unit: Just a bad spot for the Red Raiders to go into the cold weather after getting thrashed three weeks in a row. The Cyclones are coming off a bye, are getting healthy and Rhodes always has his team ready to compete.
Purdue Boilermakers PICK (-110), 1 unit: Another situational play. The Wildcats just played the game of their lives, going into South Bend and miraculously knocking off the Fighting Irish. The Boilermakers had their asses handed to them in their last home game. They are coming off a bye which gives Appleby even more time to learn the offense and to grow. Before last week Purdue would have been favored by a lot more and there is just too much weight being given to the Northwestern win over Notre Dame.
Tennessee Volunteers -4 (-109), 1 unit: The Volunteers have taken on a different identity with Dobbs under center. Their record is the product of a brutal schedule and they've held their own against tough opponents. The Tigers haven't lost on the road in awhile but it seems like they just keep getting break after break. That ends at Neyland as the home team gets bowl eligible.
Minnesota Golden Gophers +10 (-105), 1 unit: The Cornhuskers just aren't ready to be favored by this much over anyone. The Gophers can run the ball, control the clock and have a strong defense and short passing game. This should help them keep it inside the number against a Nebraska team that seems less than healthy and is turnover prone.
Boston College Eagles +17 (-105), 1 unit: Another week another comeback by the Seminoles. Will it stop this week? No, FSU has too much for the Eagles. However the Eagles have a strong running game, a running QB and a solid defense. Also they have the Seminoles off a big win over the Hurricanes with another in state rival up next.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (-110), 1 unit: An overreaction to the Irish's loss last week. The Cardinals are without their starting QB and while their defense is very good they simply don't have the firepower to keep up in this one. As long as Notre Dame can re-focus after last week they should be in good shape in this one.
California Golden Bears +6 (-105), 1 unit: I've been totally unimpressed with the Cardinal. Their D is still good but their offense is out of sync and they just don't have enough weapons. The Golden Bears style of play will give them a shot to stay within the number all game as I just don't think Stanford can run away from them.
USC Trojans +4 (-104), 1 unit: Taking a look position by position, the Trojans have a significant advantage. They really should have only one loss. The Bruins are starting to play much better since Hundley decided to run more frequently. I'm not sure who wins but it feels like a FG game to me.
Iowa State Cyclones -1 (-110), 1 unit: Just a bad spot for the Red Raiders to go into the cold weather after getting thrashed three weeks in a row. The Cyclones are coming off a bye, are getting healthy and Rhodes always has his team ready to compete.
Purdue Boilermakers PICK (-110), 1 unit: Another situational play. The Wildcats just played the game of their lives, going into South Bend and miraculously knocking off the Fighting Irish. The Boilermakers had their asses handed to them in their last home game. They are coming off a bye which gives Appleby even more time to learn the offense and to grow. Before last week Purdue would have been favored by a lot more and there is just too much weight being given to the Northwestern win over Notre Dame.
Tennessee Volunteers -4 (-109), 1 unit: The Volunteers have taken on a different identity with Dobbs under center. Their record is the product of a brutal schedule and they've held their own against tough opponents. The Tigers haven't lost on the road in awhile but it seems like they just keep getting break after break. That ends at Neyland as the home team gets bowl eligible.
Minnesota Golden Gophers +10 (-105), 1 unit: The Cornhuskers just aren't ready to be favored by this much over anyone. The Gophers can run the ball, control the clock and have a strong defense and short passing game. This should help them keep it inside the number against a Nebraska team that seems less than healthy and is turnover prone.
Boston College Eagles +17 (-105), 1 unit: Another week another comeback by the Seminoles. Will it stop this week? No, FSU has too much for the Eagles. However the Eagles have a strong running game, a running QB and a solid defense. Also they have the Seminoles off a big win over the Hurricanes with another in state rival up next.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (-110), 1 unit: An overreaction to the Irish's loss last week. The Cardinals are without their starting QB and while their defense is very good they simply don't have the firepower to keep up in this one. As long as Notre Dame can re-focus after last week they should be in good shape in this one.
California Golden Bears +6 (-105), 1 unit: I've been totally unimpressed with the Cardinal. Their D is still good but their offense is out of sync and they just don't have enough weapons. The Golden Bears style of play will give them a shot to stay within the number all game as I just don't think Stanford can run away from them.
USC Trojans +4 (-104), 1 unit: Taking a look position by position, the Trojans have a significant advantage. They really should have only one loss. The Bruins are starting to play much better since Hundley decided to run more frequently. I'm not sure who wins but it feels like a FG game to me.
56-60-4 -6.09
Brutal week last week. Might be best to fade these so at least I am providing some value. For those of you that read this, I do appreciate that none of you are ripping me as I see in other threads.
Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5 (-105), 1 unit: I hate playing huge favorites. However, there is a huge talent discrepancy between these two teams. Also the Buckeyes have a lot left to play for while the Wolverines have packed it in. It's also in Urban Meyer's nature to run the score up for style points.
North Carolina Tar Heels -6.5 (-105), 1 unit: Shocking, the season is ending and the Tar Heels are playing well. Huge momentum boost for UNC playing their best game of the year last week against Duke and I look for them to overwhelm the Wolfpack at home.
Baylor Bears -26.5 (-105), 1 unit: Read the Ohio State write up and substitute "Bears" for "Buckeyes" and "Baylor" for "Ohio State." They have to impress the committee and pass TCU. Remember what TCU did to Texas Tech?
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Bulldogs can't be excited for this one after Missouri won today. The Yellow Jackets can move the ball enough and control the clock enough to stay within the number.
Oregon State Beavers +19 (-105), 1 unit: I'll take an experienced QB, playing at home, not wanting his career to end, trying to get bowl eligible against a Ducks team that really just has to win and get to the Pac 12 Championship game next week.
Auburn Tigers +9 (-105), 1 unit: It's the Iron Bowl, it's too many points and the Crimson Tide just are not great ATS when they are favored by less than double digits. The Tigers are explosive enough to keep this one inside the number if their D can just get a few stops.
South Carolina Gamecocks and Clemson Tigers u54.5 (-105), 1 unit: Tigers have one of the best defenses in the nation but their offense is not very good at all. That's a nice combo for an under.
Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5 (-115), 1 unit: Rivalry game, mess up their playoff hopes, blah, blah, blah.....without Treadwell and with a hobbled (mentally and physically) Wallace, the Rebels cannot stay with a very talented Bulldogs squad whose only loss is at Alabama by less than a TD.
Brutal week last week. Might be best to fade these so at least I am providing some value. For those of you that read this, I do appreciate that none of you are ripping me as I see in other threads.
Ohio State Buckeyes -20.5 (-105), 1 unit: I hate playing huge favorites. However, there is a huge talent discrepancy between these two teams. Also the Buckeyes have a lot left to play for while the Wolverines have packed it in. It's also in Urban Meyer's nature to run the score up for style points.
North Carolina Tar Heels -6.5 (-105), 1 unit: Shocking, the season is ending and the Tar Heels are playing well. Huge momentum boost for UNC playing their best game of the year last week against Duke and I look for them to overwhelm the Wolfpack at home.
Baylor Bears -26.5 (-105), 1 unit: Read the Ohio State write up and substitute "Bears" for "Buckeyes" and "Baylor" for "Ohio State." They have to impress the committee and pass TCU. Remember what TCU did to Texas Tech?
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Bulldogs can't be excited for this one after Missouri won today. The Yellow Jackets can move the ball enough and control the clock enough to stay within the number.
Oregon State Beavers +19 (-105), 1 unit: I'll take an experienced QB, playing at home, not wanting his career to end, trying to get bowl eligible against a Ducks team that really just has to win and get to the Pac 12 Championship game next week.
Auburn Tigers +9 (-105), 1 unit: It's the Iron Bowl, it's too many points and the Crimson Tide just are not great ATS when they are favored by less than double digits. The Tigers are explosive enough to keep this one inside the number if their D can just get a few stops.
South Carolina Gamecocks and Clemson Tigers u54.5 (-105), 1 unit: Tigers have one of the best defenses in the nation but their offense is not very good at all. That's a nice combo for an under.
Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5 (-115), 1 unit: Rivalry game, mess up their playoff hopes, blah, blah, blah.....without Treadwell and with a hobbled (mentally and physically) Wallace, the Rebels cannot stay with a very talented Bulldogs squad whose only loss is at Alabama by less than a TD.
And my shit performance continues.
YTD 59-66-4 -11.02
Northern Illinois Huskies -6 (-105), 2 units: This may be a total square play but I am tired of trying to be "sharp" and back teams that suck. Nothing tells me the Falcons can compete in this game. They are in the far weaker side of the division, they don't do anything exceptionally well and limp into this game off of two losses. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds from last year's upset and I can't see them letting up.
Arizona Wildcats +15 (-105), 1 unit: Looks too good to be true with the Wildcats winning outright the last two times they played and now getting 15. My guess is most of the world thinks the Ducks will try and roll it up to state their case for a better seed in the playoffs. However, I see an Arizona team that has played well on the road, understands how to at least slow down Mariota, can put up enough points to hang with Oregon and will be playing on a track that should slow the lightning quick Ducks down a little bit.
YTD 59-66-4 -11.02
Northern Illinois Huskies -6 (-105), 2 units: This may be a total square play but I am tired of trying to be "sharp" and back teams that suck. Nothing tells me the Falcons can compete in this game. They are in the far weaker side of the division, they don't do anything exceptionally well and limp into this game off of two losses. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds from last year's upset and I can't see them letting up.
Arizona Wildcats +15 (-105), 1 unit: Looks too good to be true with the Wildcats winning outright the last two times they played and now getting 15. My guess is most of the world thinks the Ducks will try and roll it up to state their case for a better seed in the playoffs. However, I see an Arizona team that has played well on the road, understands how to at least slow down Mariota, can put up enough points to hang with Oregon and will be playing on a track that should slow the lightning quick Ducks down a little bit.
YTD 60-67-4 -10.07
Alabama Crimson Tide -14 (-118), 2 units: This one is not too complicated for me. I don't believe in the Tigers at all. They've beaten no one. They lost to Indiana at home. After last night the Crimson Tide have to win impressively to keep the Number One spot and play close to home in the semifinals. Look for the Crimson Tide to fire on all cylinders today and dominate this one.
Kansas State Wildcats +7 (+100), 1 unit: There is a lot of pressure here on the Bears to win and win impressively. Every time Snyder and the Wildcats are big dogs they manage to either win or keep it close. Big revenge spot for Kansas State after they were number 2 in the country and Baylor humiliated them.
Florida State Seminoles -4 (-109), 1 unit: Hard to back the Seminoles as they keep surviving each week and that just has to change at some point. Florida State is used to being on this stage and that experience is going to be huge. They've faced this offense before and the loss of Yellow Jackets WR Smelter takes away their only deep threat but more importantly a fantastic blocker. My guess is FSU walks in with a chip on their shoulder after being dropped to #4 even though they are undefeated. I think they play their best game of the year today.
Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners Under 60 (-108), 1 unit: The Cowboys can't score and yet they may have the best QB in the game. The Sooners will do their damage on the ground and keep the clock moving.
Houston Cougars and Cincinnati Bearcats Under 56.5 (-108), 1 unit: When you think of these teams you think offense. You should think defense. Two of the better defenses in the country and one of them, the Cougars, have also switched to more of a running attack on offense.
Alabama Crimson Tide -14 (-118), 2 units: This one is not too complicated for me. I don't believe in the Tigers at all. They've beaten no one. They lost to Indiana at home. After last night the Crimson Tide have to win impressively to keep the Number One spot and play close to home in the semifinals. Look for the Crimson Tide to fire on all cylinders today and dominate this one.
Kansas State Wildcats +7 (+100), 1 unit: There is a lot of pressure here on the Bears to win and win impressively. Every time Snyder and the Wildcats are big dogs they manage to either win or keep it close. Big revenge spot for Kansas State after they were number 2 in the country and Baylor humiliated them.
Florida State Seminoles -4 (-109), 1 unit: Hard to back the Seminoles as they keep surviving each week and that just has to change at some point. Florida State is used to being on this stage and that experience is going to be huge. They've faced this offense before and the loss of Yellow Jackets WR Smelter takes away their only deep threat but more importantly a fantastic blocker. My guess is FSU walks in with a chip on their shoulder after being dropped to #4 even though they are undefeated. I think they play their best game of the year today.
Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oklahoma Sooners Under 60 (-108), 1 unit: The Cowboys can't score and yet they may have the best QB in the game. The Sooners will do their damage on the ground and keep the clock moving.
Houston Cougars and Cincinnati Bearcats Under 56.5 (-108), 1 unit: When you think of these teams you think offense. You should think defense. Two of the better defenses in the country and one of them, the Cougars, have also switched to more of a running attack on offense.
