On The Hop's 2014 NCAA Football Picks

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BYU Cougars -14 (-115), 1 unit:
This is an entirely different animal for a very young Cavaliers team. They have to travel across the country, to altitude to take on a brutally physical defense. The Cougars have already faced two road tests and are working on a few extra days of rest in this one. BYU has too many weapons for Virginia and I expect them to wear the Cavaliers down in the second half.
Indiana Hoosiers +14 (-125), 1 unit: Any time you have two teams that can really move the ball and one of them is getting two TD's, I'll grab it. The Hoosiers problem is not on offense and they should be able to move the ball. The Tigers have started out strong but against a very weak schedule. Missouri has a big revenge game against South Carolina, leaving open the possibility of either the look ahead or the late backdoor cover.
Iowa Hawkeyes +7 (-107), 1 unit: Tough to back a team that looked so bad in its big rivalry game last week. However Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes do two things very well. They keep games close regardless of the opponent and they circle the wagons when everything seems to be going against them. The Panthers just aren't explosive enough to run away and hide and this seems like a lot of points in what should be a close, hard fought game.
Maryland Terrapins +2 (-105), 1 unit: I loved this game until I saw the public was all over the Terrapins as well. Nonetheless I still have to play it. Maryland has so many advantages at the skill positions. The Orange are getting way too much love for a road win over a bad team last week. Big revenge spot for the Terrapins who got destroyed at home last year by Syracuse but were missing many of their best players.
East Carolina -2.5 (-105), 1 unit: I know, I know, it's a letdown spot. All I can think about is if the Pirates crushed the Virginia Tech secondary on the road what are they going to do to the Tar Heels secondary at home? Carden is the best player on the field. North Carolina is beaten up and inexperienced. Give me the home team with a ton of momentum.
Navy Midshipmen -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Last week was the big one for the Scarlet Knights and they lost a heart breaker. Playing the Midshipmen is never easy. Preparing for the option when you're letdown over a big loss is incredibly difficult. Look for Navy to impose their will on Rutgers and put this one away late.
Mississippi State Bulldogs +9 (-102), 1 unit: Tough to play the Tigers at home under the lights. However this LSU team is not ready to be giving this many points to a very good Bulldogs squad. Prescott can beat you in so many ways. While I expect Lucky Les to pull another one out at home, this young team is not likely to beat anyone by double digits. Yet.
Miami Hurricanes +8 (-105), 1 unit: This is the same Cornhuskers team that barely survived McNeese State. They go on the road and blow out a dismal Fresno State team and all is forgotten? The Hurricanes are young but very talented. They've bounced back nicely against weaker competition since their season opening loss. This young Miami team is growing up quickly and it would not surprise me at all to see them keep this close the whole way against a mediocre Nebraska defense.
 

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21-19-1 +1.03

Duke Blue Devils +7 (-115), 1 unit:
There are advantages all over the field for the Blue Devils, QB, Special Teams and coaching to name a few. The Hurricanes are all about reputation but Golden has beaten no one since he's been at Miami and their D is not good enough to be giving this many against an offense like Duke.
Colorado State Rams +9 (-110), 1 unit: Normally I'm the first one to play against a West Coast team coming East. However there are two things in play here that lead me the other way. First the Rams have had two weeks to prepare which means they can vary practice schedules and times to get used to the early start. Second, the Eagles simply aren't good enough to be giving this many points to anyone. Way too much credit for their win over USC. This is the same team that lost by 10 at home to Pitt. Going against my normal pattern I'll grab the points.
Iowa State Cyclones +21.5 (-109), 1 unit: The Bears look great on offense and maybe even better on defense. However they've played absolutely nobody. Now they go on the road to play a Cyclones team that has regrouped after a season opening loss to an FCS team. They beat their biggest rival Iowa and have had a week to get healthy and prepare for an explosive Baylor squad. I think Iowa State will look to eat clock, hang around and ride the home crowd. I don't think they win but they can challenge a good Bears team stepping up in class for the first time.
Minnesota Golden Gophers and Michigan Wolverines u43 (-108), 1 unit: For all of their problems the Wolverines have one thing going for them, a strong defense. The Gophers know how to do one thing on offense, run the ball and keep the clock moving. Their defense is underrated as well and I look for these two to grind it out in a massive game for both teams Bowl hopes.
Washington Huskies +7.5 (-113), 1 unit: This is the first road game for an inexperienced Cardinal squad. This is no ordinary road game, this is probably the loudest venue in college sports. The Huskies have shown an ability to do just enough to win. I have a feeling they've been holding things back and purposely not putting them on film for Coach Petersen's first Pac 12 game. Washington can score with anyone and if they can get enough of a pass rush to protect their secondary they can keep this inside the number.
 

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24-21-1 +1.8

Arizona Wildcats +24 (-115), 1 unit: This game is going to be a shoot out. Neither team has a very good defense and both play fast and can score. With the number of plays both teams should run all it takes is a handful of non-scoring possessions to swing this one in the Wildcats favor. When a team can score like Arizona does it also leaves the backdoor open.
Central Florida Golden Knights +3 (-125), 1 unit:
The Knights are underrated due to their early losses while the Cougars are overrated because they allegedly stayed close with BYU. That game wasn't close. Central Florida's defense is still an outstanding unit and give O'Leary time to prepare and I'll gladly grab the points.
 

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26-21-1 +3.8

Syracuse Orange +3 (-130), 1 unit:
There is something about the Orange and the Carrier Dome on a Thursday or Friday night that seems to bring out the best in them. Syracuse is getting downgraded for losing at home to Maryland in a game where the score does not reflect how close the game was and for losing to Notre Dame. The Cardinals aren't Notre Dame and they might not even be as good as Maryland. This one should be a tight defensive battle and I'll gladly grab the points with the home team.
 

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Washington State Cougars -3 (-115), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Golden Bears here. Two emotionally draining games in a row and now they have to face the Cougars who seemed to somehow find a defense and turn their season around last week. Expect for these teams to race up and down the field with a Washington State team that suddenly has life to eventually wear out the young Cal team.
Kentucky Wildcats +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Wildcats are quietly putting together a nice season and if not for the heart breaker at Florida they would be undefeated. On the other side of the ball are the Gamecocks who even according to their own coach are not very good. They justified that analysis by struggling with Vandy and losing at home to Missouri. South Carolina isn't tough enough to bounce back from that loss on the road against a disciplined, tough Kentucky squad.
Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5 (-115), 2 units: My first 2 unit play of the season for a few reasons. First the Aggies have to be worn out. They have not had a week off since the season started and last week they had to come from behind against a mediocre Arkansas team. The Bulldogs have the best player on the field in Prescott and a home crowd that has been waiting for an opportunity like this for a long time. Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this one and their ability to be physical and run the ball should get them past Texas A&M.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2.5 (+105), 1 unit: The Cardinal just haven't looked like themselves this year. Their defense is still very strong. However they are mistake prone and stagnant on offense. Golston brings a different dimension to the Fighting Irish and their defense has been as good as anyone's this season. Notre Dame has been very good at home and in what should be a game where points are at a premium I'll take the home team getting them.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -1.5 (-105), 1 unit: Great situation for the Yellow Jackets. The Hurricanes have gone on the road twice and been beaten soundly twice. They showed up at home last week against Duke and that has made this number reasonable. Miami relies on athleticism not disciplined defense. To stop the Georgia Tech attack you need to play smart, sound football and until Miami shows me they can do that I'll play against them on the road.
Michigan State Spartans -7 (-105), 1 unit: In the past a number this big would have worried me with the Spartans. Not this season. They are more than just a dominant defense. They are a diverse offense led by a very good QB. The Cornhuskers haven't faced a team this good yet while Michigan State has already gone to Oregon. Nebraska definitely hasn't faced a defense this good or an environment this hostile. Throw in a coaching mismatch and I like Michigan State.
Texas Christian University Horned Frogs +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Plain and simple the Horned Frogs find a way to stay in games at home. This might be the best defense in the country. Combine TCU's defense with their ability to grind the clock and this one feels like a FG game.
Michigan Wolverines +2 (-105), 1 unit: The best thing that could happen to the Wolverines is the chance to play a football game away from home. They can get away from the noise, away from the distractions and just play football. Look for Gardner to show flashes of his old abilities in a simplified game plan. In the only game the Scarlet Knights have played against a team with a pulse they lost at home in the program's biggest home game in years. This is a circle the wagons game for Michigan and I think they play like it.
 

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Appreciate the plays and discussion.disagree on cats/gamecocks, but hey; that's why they play the games..gl
 

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31-24-2 +6.3

Washington State Cougars +17 (-120), 1 unit:
I've watched these teams a few times this year. The Cardinal are fantastic on defense but their offense is questionable, at best. On the other side of the ball the Cougars can move the ball on almost anyone and can't stop anyone. In a short week shootout, I'll take the points and hope that Washington State can put 3 TD's on the board because I don't think Stanford gets 5.
 

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impressive display on the hop. i like how you break it down.
 

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Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 (-120), 1 unit: For some reason, even though they continue to prove me wrong, I just don't believe in the Tigers. Their one true road game against a decent team this year was at Kansas State and they struggled. The Bulldogs have seem to give Auburn trouble regardless of record. Tough spot for Mississippi State to get up for after last week but they were ahead so comfortably, so early that I think the emotional high ended early. Look for the home crowd to push the Bulldogs to victory in StarkVegas.
UCLA Bruins +3 (-125), 1 unit: Was hoping for a Ducks win last week so this number would be a little higher. I'm not a believer in Oregon as they can't run the ball and their defense is just bad. The Bruins are also no great shakes on defense. However in a game that should go up and down the field I'll take the home team with the slightly better defense and the points.
LSU Tigers and Florida Gators u47 (-105), 1 unit: Both teams have very good defenses. Neither team has a very good offense. Both teams are coming off tough games last week. I expect to see both teams take the ball out of their QB's hands and run, run and run some more.
Washington Huskies +4.5 (-107), 1 unit: The Huskies are coming off a bye while the Golden Bears are coming off three straight shootouts. Washington's offense struggles but their defense has been impressive. Cal has an impressive record but no impressive wins and I expect this step up in class to give them a tough time against a Husky squad that knows it had Stanford beaten and has had two weeks to think about it.
 

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Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 (-120), 1 unit: For some reason, even though they continue to prove me wrong, I just don't believe in the Tigers. Their one true road game against a decent team this year was at Kansas State and they struggled. The Bulldogs have seem to give Auburn trouble regardless of record. Tough spot for Mississippi State to get up for after last week but they were ahead so comfortably, so early that I think the emotional high ended early. Look for the home crowd to push the Bulldogs to victory in StarkVegas.
UCLA Bruins +3 (-125), 1 unit: Was hoping for a Ducks win last week so this number would be a little higher. I'm not a believer in Oregon as they can't run the ball and their defense is just bad. The Bruins are also no great shakes on defense. However in a game that should go up and down the field I'll take the home team with the slightly better defense and the points.
LSU Tigers and Florida Gators u47 (-105), 1 unit: Both teams have very good defenses. Neither team has a very good offense. Both teams are coming off tough games last week. I expect to see both teams take the ball out of their QB's hands and run, run and run some more.
Washington Huskies +4.5 (-107), 1 unit: The Huskies are coming off a bye while the Golden Bears are coming off three straight shootouts. Washington's offense struggles but their defense has been impressive. Cal has an impressive record but no impressive wins and I expect this step up in class to give them a tough time against a Husky squad that knows it had Stanford beaten and has had two weeks to think about it.

hop we think alike. i would wish you luck but you don't need any. these rock.
 

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to add fla - lsu under... did you see driskel last week? hideous is too kind.
 

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North Carolina Tar Heels +17 (-120), 1 unit: Two reasons for this one. First, while their defense is fantastic, the Fighting Irish offense is mediocre. Second, this is a brutal spot for Notre Dame having just beaten Stanford and going to Florida State next. The Tar Heels don't do much well but they can put points on the board. Expect the Fighting Irish to shut it down early and not show many wrinkles in the game plan with a monster game on tap next week.
USC Trojans -2.5, 1 unit: Let me get this straight, the Wildcats are a Top 10 team, playing at home, that just beat Oregon on the road and they are underdogs? The Trojans lost to lowly Boston College and also at home to Arizona State and they're favored on the road? Something doesn't smell right and I'm thinking this young Arizona squad may have been reading their press clippings and just isn't ready to win another big game.
 

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North Carolina Tar Heels +17 (-120), 1 unit: Two reasons for this one. First, while their defense is fantastic, the Fighting Irish offense is mediocre. Second, this is a brutal spot for Notre Dame having just beaten Stanford and going to Florida State next. The Tar Heels don't do much well but they can put points on the board. Expect the Fighting Irish to shut it down early and not show many wrinkles in the game plan with a monster game on tap next week.
USC Trojans -2.5, 1 unit: Let me get this straight, the Wildcats are a Top 10 team, playing at home, that just beat Oregon on the road and they are underdogs? The Trojans lost to lowly Boston College and also at home to Arizona State and they're favored on the road? Something doesn't smell right and I'm thinking this young Arizona squad may have been reading their press clippings and just isn't ready to win another big game.

ive been doing this 40 years? 60 years? dude how many times does ND go limp after a big win and then giving double digs? forever. add the FSU look ahead. ya go UNC here.
 

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Great calls hop! Look forward to your analysis next week.
 

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Appreciate those of you that check in here for picks (or to laugh at my analysis!!!). Anyway, just a note: going to Vegas this week so I may or may not get a chance to post picks. If I do, there likely will be little to no analysis and also probably won't have the best line as I'm out there for fun not to bust my ass shopping numbers.

Good luck to everyone!!

​34-27-3 +5.9
 

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