April 14, 2014 (29-26-2 +4.51)
New York Mets (+117), 1 unit: Wheeler has been better than his numbers indicate. Arizona's lineup just isn't hitting right now and Collmenter can't keep them in this one for too long.
Tampa Bay Rays (-117), 1 unit: An opportunity to take a stud pitcher at a low number. Even on the road he should keep the Rays in this thing against the Orioles dormant bats.
Washington Nationals (-1, -110), 1 unit: If you believe in Jordan Zimmerman and his abilities this is a good spot for him. The Marlins lineup has fallen apart and even with their injuries the Nats have enough bats to get it done.
Cincinnati Reds (-116), 1 unit: Bailey is getting a decent number here because of his struggles. Rodriguez is one of those guys that should have thrived with a contender but has not delivered under pressure.
St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers u8 (-110), 1 unit: Garza and the Brewers are hitting on all cylinders. Lynn is a bit of a mirage but for some reason seems to dominate the Brewers whenever he faces them.
New York Mets (+117), 1 unit: Wheeler has been better than his numbers indicate. Arizona's lineup just isn't hitting right now and Collmenter can't keep them in this one for too long.
Tampa Bay Rays (-117), 1 unit: An opportunity to take a stud pitcher at a low number. Even on the road he should keep the Rays in this thing against the Orioles dormant bats.
Washington Nationals (-1, -110), 1 unit: If you believe in Jordan Zimmerman and his abilities this is a good spot for him. The Marlins lineup has fallen apart and even with their injuries the Nats have enough bats to get it done.
Cincinnati Reds (-116), 1 unit: Bailey is getting a decent number here because of his struggles. Rodriguez is one of those guys that should have thrived with a contender but has not delivered under pressure.
St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers u8 (-110), 1 unit: Garza and the Brewers are hitting on all cylinders. Lynn is a bit of a mirage but for some reason seems to dominate the Brewers whenever he faces them.
April 15, 2014 (32-27-3 +6.34)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-106), 1 unit: Cole is quickly becoming a top young pitcher. Leake has good numbers this year but they just can't continue. While the Reds have the better bats the pitching mismatch should carry the Pirates.
Parlay: Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals (+182), 1 unit
New York Mets (+128), 1 unit: Mejia has good stuff and has been fairly unlucky thus far. Arroyo has nothing left. Shocking to say this but the Mets have the better bats right now.
Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels u8 (+115), 1 unit: Straily is one of the top young pitchers in baseball. Richards is on the verge of a breakout. Neither lineup is tearing the cover off the ball and both bullpens have enough to get it done.
Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres u7 (-115), 1 unit: Nicasio has been lights out at Petco. Erlin is a good young talent. Neither lineup has much to offer and both bullpens are rested.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-106), 1 unit: Cole is quickly becoming a top young pitcher. Leake has good numbers this year but they just can't continue. While the Reds have the better bats the pitching mismatch should carry the Pirates.
Parlay: Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals (+182), 1 unit
New York Mets (+128), 1 unit: Mejia has good stuff and has been fairly unlucky thus far. Arroyo has nothing left. Shocking to say this but the Mets have the better bats right now.
Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels u8 (+115), 1 unit: Straily is one of the top young pitchers in baseball. Richards is on the verge of a breakout. Neither lineup is tearing the cover off the ball and both bullpens have enough to get it done.
Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres u7 (-115), 1 unit: Nicasio has been lights out at Petco. Erlin is a good young talent. Neither lineup has much to offer and both bullpens are rested.
April 18, 2014 (38-33-3 +6.55)
Miami Marlins (-120), 1 unit: Eovaldi is one of the up and coming young pitchers in the game and is dominant at home. Has had good numbers against Seattle. On the other side we get Chris Young who looked ok his first time out but whose best days are behind him due to injury. Neither lineup strikes fear into anyone and I'll grab the better pitcher at home.
Detroit Tigers (-1, +128), 1 unit: Everything finally caught up to Jeff Weaver. He has 5+ ERA against three of the worst hitting lineups in the league. Smyly is one of those lefties with nasty stuff that not a lot of teams have seen. Detroit showed me a lot yesterday coming back against Cleveland I think that momentum carries over into tonight.
Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs u6 (+118), 1 unit: Simon has been excellent filling in for Latos. Samardzja has been downright unlucky this year and still has very good stuff. Wind is blowing in. It's cold. The Cubs can't hit at all. I'll try the under.
St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals u6 (+123), 1 unit: Wacha is one of the best young arms in the game and has had plenty of success against the Nats. Gonzalez had a rough outing but the Braves tend to give him trouble. It's chilly in DC and with two top pitchers going at it I'll give the under a shot.
Baltimore Orioles (+120), 1 unit: Tillman is throwing the ball so well right now. The Red Sox are coming off a brutal, hard fought series with the White Sox and don't have the bats they used to have to carry them in these spots.
Kansas City Royals (-1, +102), 1 unit: Somehow, some way Vargas keeps getting it done. Royals looked good in their last series even if it was against Houston. Nolasco can't seem to find anything and he's not likely to get on track against a Royals team that is starting to come around.
New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays o7 (-110), 1 unit: Tough to back the Yankees or Rays in an over spot. However the Rays own Kuroda and Bedard has nothing left.
Houston Astros and Oakland A's u7 (-105), 1 unit: Gray is a fantastic talent facing a lineup that just can't hit. Cosart's away numbers are very good and his numbers against Oakland are surprisingly fantastic.
Miami Marlins (-120), 1 unit: Eovaldi is one of the up and coming young pitchers in the game and is dominant at home. Has had good numbers against Seattle. On the other side we get Chris Young who looked ok his first time out but whose best days are behind him due to injury. Neither lineup strikes fear into anyone and I'll grab the better pitcher at home.
Detroit Tigers (-1, +128), 1 unit: Everything finally caught up to Jeff Weaver. He has 5+ ERA against three of the worst hitting lineups in the league. Smyly is one of those lefties with nasty stuff that not a lot of teams have seen. Detroit showed me a lot yesterday coming back against Cleveland I think that momentum carries over into tonight.
Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs u6 (+118), 1 unit: Simon has been excellent filling in for Latos. Samardzja has been downright unlucky this year and still has very good stuff. Wind is blowing in. It's cold. The Cubs can't hit at all. I'll try the under.
St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals u6 (+123), 1 unit: Wacha is one of the best young arms in the game and has had plenty of success against the Nats. Gonzalez had a rough outing but the Braves tend to give him trouble. It's chilly in DC and with two top pitchers going at it I'll give the under a shot.
Baltimore Orioles (+120), 1 unit: Tillman is throwing the ball so well right now. The Red Sox are coming off a brutal, hard fought series with the White Sox and don't have the bats they used to have to carry them in these spots.
Kansas City Royals (-1, +102), 1 unit: Somehow, some way Vargas keeps getting it done. Royals looked good in their last series even if it was against Houston. Nolasco can't seem to find anything and he's not likely to get on track against a Royals team that is starting to come around.
New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays o7 (-110), 1 unit: Tough to back the Yankees or Rays in an over spot. However the Rays own Kuroda and Bedard has nothing left.
Houston Astros and Oakland A's u7 (-105), 1 unit: Gray is a fantastic talent facing a lineup that just can't hit. Cosart's away numbers are very good and his numbers against Oakland are surprisingly fantastic.
April 19, 2014 (44-35-3 +11.13)
Washington Nationals (-108), 1 unit: Lynn is a medicore pitcher with good numbers. Zimmerman is an excellent pitcher with bad numbers. It's an opportunity to grab the better hitter and the better lineup at a low number.
Parlay: Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's (+283), 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers (-108), 1 unit: Something isn't right with Wandy Rodriguez. He just doesn't look good. While Garza can be up and down there is a significant mismatch here and while the Pirates have the better bats the pitching discrepancy is a big equalizer.
San Francisco Giants (-128), 1 unit: Hudson looks like he is back in his Braves heyday. The Giants are getting healthy and I expect their bats to come around. Stults has been off this year and there's not enough pop in the Padres lineup to cover that up.
Toronto Blue Jays (+109), 1 unit: Right now if you want to keep giving me Buehrle at a number like this, I'll take it.
Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox o9 (+100), 1 unit: These are two bad pitchers with bad numbers in this park with tired bullpens. There is more than enough pop in each lineup to push this one over.
Washington Nationals (-108), 1 unit: Lynn is a medicore pitcher with good numbers. Zimmerman is an excellent pitcher with bad numbers. It's an opportunity to grab the better hitter and the better lineup at a low number.
Parlay: Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's (+283), 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers (-108), 1 unit: Something isn't right with Wandy Rodriguez. He just doesn't look good. While Garza can be up and down there is a significant mismatch here and while the Pirates have the better bats the pitching discrepancy is a big equalizer.
San Francisco Giants (-128), 1 unit: Hudson looks like he is back in his Braves heyday. The Giants are getting healthy and I expect their bats to come around. Stults has been off this year and there's not enough pop in the Padres lineup to cover that up.
Toronto Blue Jays (+109), 1 unit: Right now if you want to keep giving me Buehrle at a number like this, I'll take it.
Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox o9 (+100), 1 unit: These are two bad pitchers with bad numbers in this park with tired bullpens. There is more than enough pop in each lineup to push this one over.
April 20, 2014 (47-38-3 +12.69)
New York Mets (-118), 1 unit: Something about this number stinks. Last time out Wheeler got pounded by the Braves and now he is favored? Hopefully it's not being set up for a big move. I think it's because Wheeler has been a little unlucky and I expect his talent to come through today.
Milwaukee Brewers (+111), 1 unit: Estrada has been the Brewers best starter since his return from injury. Cole has all the potential in the world but right now he is struggling. The Pirates may have rushed him up based on potential and even though their hot play has to end sometime I can't pass the Brewers in this situation.
Los Angeles Angels (+130), 1 unit: The Angels bats are starting to come around. Looking at Santiago's numbers against Detroit and Porcello's against the Angels this is one of those situations that applies only to baseball, sometimes you just have to grab the value if it's there and take your chances.
New York Yankees (+118), 1 unit: The Yankees have had a lot of success against lefties. While Nuno hasn't been anything special he has a lot more to offer than Ramos. The Rays are slightly overvalued here due to their outburst the last two days against a tired Yankees pen. Yankees have called in reinforcements from the minors and they can't be any worse thatn what has been out there the last two nights.
St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals u7 (+100), 1 unit: Both pitchers have great numbers against their opponents and also at Nationals Park. Both bullpens have enough fresh arms to keep this total down as well.
New York Mets (-118), 1 unit: Something about this number stinks. Last time out Wheeler got pounded by the Braves and now he is favored? Hopefully it's not being set up for a big move. I think it's because Wheeler has been a little unlucky and I expect his talent to come through today.
Milwaukee Brewers (+111), 1 unit: Estrada has been the Brewers best starter since his return from injury. Cole has all the potential in the world but right now he is struggling. The Pirates may have rushed him up based on potential and even though their hot play has to end sometime I can't pass the Brewers in this situation.
Los Angeles Angels (+130), 1 unit: The Angels bats are starting to come around. Looking at Santiago's numbers against Detroit and Porcello's against the Angels this is one of those situations that applies only to baseball, sometimes you just have to grab the value if it's there and take your chances.
New York Yankees (+118), 1 unit: The Yankees have had a lot of success against lefties. While Nuno hasn't been anything special he has a lot more to offer than Ramos. The Rays are slightly overvalued here due to their outburst the last two days against a tired Yankees pen. Yankees have called in reinforcements from the minors and they can't be any worse thatn what has been out there the last two nights.
St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals u7 (+100), 1 unit: Both pitchers have great numbers against their opponents and also at Nationals Park. Both bullpens have enough fresh arms to keep this total down as well.
April 21, 2014 (51-39-3 +15.69)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115), 1 unit: Hard to back the Diamondbacks or Arroyo at this point. However in looking at his numbers against the Cubs and specifically at Wrigley I'll take my chances and hope that their bats come to life tonight.
Cincinnati Reds (+128), 1 unit: Hard to imagine how the Pirates get up for this game after back to back crushing defeats against the Brewers. Combine that with Mike Leake on the road at this number and I'll give it a shot.
New York Mets (+102), 1 unit: Hoping the Mets can capture a little momentum after their win in extras yesterday. Mejia seemed to really figure things out in his last start before a blister derailed him. He's the better starter tonight and at home I'll take my chances.
San Diego Padres (+108), 1 unit: Tough to go against the Brewers right now. However there won't be many more chances to take Cashner at a number like this.
Colorado Rockies (-125), 1 unit: Vogelsong is just lost right now. De LaRosa has not been much better but he seems to find something different at home and has good numbers against the Giants.
Philadelphia Phillies (+104), 1 unit: Lee is usually lights out against the Dodgers and especially at Dodger Stadium. Hopefully he regains some of his magic tonight. Even if he doesn't the Phillies should be able to get to Maholm as his better days are behind him.
Boston Red Sox (-1, -108), 1 unit: Emotion and momentum are overhyped. However in a game that is being played just 12 hours after the last one ended one team may just want to get this over with and get out of town while the other one is playing in an incredibly emotional environment I expect that to carry the day.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115), 1 unit: Hard to back the Diamondbacks or Arroyo at this point. However in looking at his numbers against the Cubs and specifically at Wrigley I'll take my chances and hope that their bats come to life tonight.
Cincinnati Reds (+128), 1 unit: Hard to imagine how the Pirates get up for this game after back to back crushing defeats against the Brewers. Combine that with Mike Leake on the road at this number and I'll give it a shot.
New York Mets (+102), 1 unit: Hoping the Mets can capture a little momentum after their win in extras yesterday. Mejia seemed to really figure things out in his last start before a blister derailed him. He's the better starter tonight and at home I'll take my chances.
San Diego Padres (+108), 1 unit: Tough to go against the Brewers right now. However there won't be many more chances to take Cashner at a number like this.
Colorado Rockies (-125), 1 unit: Vogelsong is just lost right now. De LaRosa has not been much better but he seems to find something different at home and has good numbers against the Giants.
Philadelphia Phillies (+104), 1 unit: Lee is usually lights out against the Dodgers and especially at Dodger Stadium. Hopefully he regains some of his magic tonight. Even if he doesn't the Phillies should be able to get to Maholm as his better days are behind him.
Boston Red Sox (-1, -108), 1 unit: Emotion and momentum are overhyped. However in a game that is being played just 12 hours after the last one ended one team may just want to get this over with and get out of town while the other one is playing in an incredibly emotional environment I expect that to carry the day.
April 22, 2014 (54-43-3 +14.67)
Chicago Cubs (-109), 1 unit: So tough to expect the Cubs to win back to back games. Neither team is hitting but the home team has a much better pitcher on the hill and a more rested pen.
Miami Marlins (+120), 1 unit: Anytime I can grab Fernandez at a number like this I'm going to give it a shot.
Kansas City Royals (-102), 1 unit: Their bats are dormant but Salazar may be the answer to that problem. He's very young and very talented but he just hasn't put it all together. On the other hand, Shields continues to throw it well and traditionally beats up the Indians even on the road.
Baltimore Orioles (+120), 1 unit: Dickey is bad right now. He's traditionally been awful against the Orioles. Gonzalez is equally bad but has had the Blue Jays number throughout his career.
New York Yankees (+106), 1 unit: Tanaka looks like the real deal and shouldn't be intimidated at Fenway. On the other hand the Red Sox played late Sunday, played again early Monday, used a lot of the bullpen, and are being asked to take on their biggest rival tonight.
Los Angeles Angels (+102), 1 unit: Two young, talented pitchers finding their way. Jordan is struggling right now while Skaggs seems to be finding a rhythm. The Angels bats are starting to work and I think they can put up enough runs to take this one.
St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets u7 (-110), 1 unit: It's obvious how good Adam Wainwright is and how dominant he has been for the Cardinals. However, look at how good Gee has been both this year and traditionally against the Cardinals. With the Mets light hitting lineup and Gee's performance thus far, I'll grab the under.
Chicago Cubs (-109), 1 unit: So tough to expect the Cubs to win back to back games. Neither team is hitting but the home team has a much better pitcher on the hill and a more rested pen.
Miami Marlins (+120), 1 unit: Anytime I can grab Fernandez at a number like this I'm going to give it a shot.
Kansas City Royals (-102), 1 unit: Their bats are dormant but Salazar may be the answer to that problem. He's very young and very talented but he just hasn't put it all together. On the other hand, Shields continues to throw it well and traditionally beats up the Indians even on the road.
Baltimore Orioles (+120), 1 unit: Dickey is bad right now. He's traditionally been awful against the Orioles. Gonzalez is equally bad but has had the Blue Jays number throughout his career.
New York Yankees (+106), 1 unit: Tanaka looks like the real deal and shouldn't be intimidated at Fenway. On the other hand the Red Sox played late Sunday, played again early Monday, used a lot of the bullpen, and are being asked to take on their biggest rival tonight.
Los Angeles Angels (+102), 1 unit: Two young, talented pitchers finding their way. Jordan is struggling right now while Skaggs seems to be finding a rhythm. The Angels bats are starting to work and I think they can put up enough runs to take this one.
St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets u7 (-110), 1 unit: It's obvious how good Adam Wainwright is and how dominant he has been for the Cardinals. However, look at how good Gee has been both this year and traditionally against the Cardinals. With the Mets light hitting lineup and Gee's performance thus far, I'll grab the under.
April 23, 2014 (60-44-3 +19.95)
San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies u9 (+140), 1 unit: So tough to play an under at Coors. However these are two pitchers that are throwing it well and it is a getaway day so at this number I'll give it a shot.
Cincinnati Reds (+108), 1 unit: At some point Simon will come back down to Earth. However few teams are playing as well as the Reds right now and Charlie Morton has turned into what he should be, an average starter who relies on balls being hit at people.
Baltimore Orioles (+103), 1 unit: Tillman has been so much better than McGowan and has had success at Rogers. The lineups are fairly equal and too much is being made of the win last night when it was a close game into the late innings.
Kansas City Royals (+125), 1 unit: Something is just not right with Masterson. Something is very right with Vargas. Hopefully last night's outburst for the Royals was not a fluke and they keep it up tonight.
Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves u7 (-105), 1 unit: At some point Aaron Harang will become Aaron Harang. However right now you have two pitchers throwing it well, with a good history against their opponent in an early getaway day game.
Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals u7 (+105), 1 unit: Most of the Nats have not seen Weaver and right now he is flat out fooling people. Gonzalez dominates at home and has excellent numbers against the Angels.
San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies u9 (+140), 1 unit: So tough to play an under at Coors. However these are two pitchers that are throwing it well and it is a getaway day so at this number I'll give it a shot.
Cincinnati Reds (+108), 1 unit: At some point Simon will come back down to Earth. However few teams are playing as well as the Reds right now and Charlie Morton has turned into what he should be, an average starter who relies on balls being hit at people.
Baltimore Orioles (+103), 1 unit: Tillman has been so much better than McGowan and has had success at Rogers. The lineups are fairly equal and too much is being made of the win last night when it was a close game into the late innings.
Kansas City Royals (+125), 1 unit: Something is just not right with Masterson. Something is very right with Vargas. Hopefully last night's outburst for the Royals was not a fluke and they keep it up tonight.
Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves u7 (-105), 1 unit: At some point Aaron Harang will become Aaron Harang. However right now you have two pitchers throwing it well, with a good history against their opponent in an early getaway day game.
Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals u7 (+105), 1 unit: Most of the Nats have not seen Weaver and right now he is flat out fooling people. Gonzalez dominates at home and has excellent numbers against the Angels.
April 24, 2014 (63-47-3 +20.06)
Parlay: Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers (+275)
Toronto Blue Jays (-1, +103), 1 unit: The lineups matchup fairly evenly. The pitchers do not. Norris has not been good since leaving Houston. Hutchison's numbers are fluky but he has a great history against the Orioles and I'll back him in this spot.
New York Yankees (+106), 1 unit: The Yankees have the better lineup and tonight they have the better pitcher. Sabathia has figured out how to pitch with his reduced velocity and had an excellent outing last time out in Tampa which is usually a house of horrors for him. Doubront has a ton of talent but just hasn't figured out how to put it all together and with a number like this I'll take my chances.
Parlay: Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers (+275)
Toronto Blue Jays (-1, +103), 1 unit: The lineups matchup fairly evenly. The pitchers do not. Norris has not been good since leaving Houston. Hutchison's numbers are fluky but he has a great history against the Orioles and I'll back him in this spot.
New York Yankees (+106), 1 unit: The Yankees have the better lineup and tonight they have the better pitcher. Sabathia has figured out how to pitch with his reduced velocity and had an excellent outing last time out in Tampa which is usually a house of horrors for him. Doubront has a ton of talent but just hasn't figured out how to put it all together and with a number like this I'll take my chances.
April 26, 2014 (64-49-3 +19.06)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+100), 1 unit: Liriano has been throwing it very well this year and with any run support everyone would be talking about him. Lyons has not had a ton of success against Pittsburgh and his ERA cannot stay where it is based on the other numbers he is putting up.
Cincinnati Reds (+107), 1 unit: A chance to back Leake on the road with a powerful lineup against a pitcher who has mediocre numbers against mediocre teams.
Boston Red Sox (+100), 1 unit: It is so tough to back Buchholz who has been a mess since he returned from injury. However, Morrow is equally as bad. Looking closer, Buchholz dominates Toronto and it seems like the Red Sox bats are starting to come around.
New York Mets (-1, +104), 1 unit: Mejia has been nails his last few times out. While the Mets bats are nothing to be excited about, right now Slowey can't get anyone out.
Colorado Rockies (+115), 1 unit: Nicasio has been pretty good at Dodger Stadium but this is really a play against Maholm who has been a disaster.
New York Yankees (-109), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Yankees last night after the series at Boston and facing Wilson who owns them. Nuno pitched well in what was a relatively big game for the Yankees last time out in Tampa. He's auditioning for Nova's spot and I think we see his best here. Yankees have been good against Santiago and good against lefties as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+100), 1 unit: Liriano has been throwing it very well this year and with any run support everyone would be talking about him. Lyons has not had a ton of success against Pittsburgh and his ERA cannot stay where it is based on the other numbers he is putting up.
Cincinnati Reds (+107), 1 unit: A chance to back Leake on the road with a powerful lineup against a pitcher who has mediocre numbers against mediocre teams.
Boston Red Sox (+100), 1 unit: It is so tough to back Buchholz who has been a mess since he returned from injury. However, Morrow is equally as bad. Looking closer, Buchholz dominates Toronto and it seems like the Red Sox bats are starting to come around.
New York Mets (-1, +104), 1 unit: Mejia has been nails his last few times out. While the Mets bats are nothing to be excited about, right now Slowey can't get anyone out.
Colorado Rockies (+115), 1 unit: Nicasio has been pretty good at Dodger Stadium but this is really a play against Maholm who has been a disaster.
New York Yankees (-109), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Yankees last night after the series at Boston and facing Wilson who owns them. Nuno pitched well in what was a relatively big game for the Yankees last time out in Tampa. He's auditioning for Nova's spot and I think we see his best here. Yankees have been good against Santiago and good against lefties as well.
