On The Hop's 2014-2015 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

34-32-2 -4.73

Minnesota Vikings (PICK), 1 unit: The Redskins would have had a better chance to win this game with McCoy at QB. RG3 will be rusty. The Vikings D just keeps getting better and better and I think they stack the box, put a spy on Griffin and dare him to beat them through the air. Bridgewater can manage the game and McKinnon and Asiata should see plenty of holes to run through.
San Diego Chargers +3 (-130), 1 unit: Getting some value here with the Chargers coming off two losses and the Dolphins coming off two wins. But, the Chargers lost to two good teams while the Dolphins beat two awful teams. Furthermore, the Dolphins were getting handled by Jacksonville but their D and ST kept the score close. Normally I worry about an early start for a West Coast team but the Chargers have extra rest having played on Thursday.
Houston Texans +3 (-135), 1 unit: On it's face this one looks like a total mismatch. The Eagles and their explosive offense...how can Fitzpatrick keep up? Take a closer look. Eagles have been outgained in several games this year. The only stinker the Texans through in was at New York in a game where Foster did not play. The Texans D does enough to contain the Eagles and Foster and Fitzpatrick move the chains enough that this one feels like a FG game. I'll grab the home team and the points.
Oakland Raiders +14 (-120), 1/2 unit: Always tough to cover double digits in the NFL. Seahawks have not looked like the same team this year. Raiders have been in quite a few games, especially ATS. However, just like the Chiefs it would not shock me to see the Seahawks run away with this one so I'm playing it for 1/2 unit.
New York Jets +9 (-108), 1/2 unit: Every time the Jets have played a tough team they've hung in there (and stayed inside the number...or should have like with Denver). Vick knows how to manage the game, keep the clock moving and run for first downs when he has to. The Chiefs are really starting to play well so I'm playing this for 1/2 unit as it would not shock me if they just ran away with it
Arizona Cardinals -1 (-105), 1 unit: The Cardinals continue to get no respect and they continue to win games. Weeden won't beat them with his arm which means they're going to run it. A lot. And Arizona's run D is one of the best in the league. Palmer is underrated and they have a good shot to get a road win here.
New England Patriots +3 (-102), 1 unit: The Patriots are playing great football right now with Gronk and their 7 headed rushing attack (every time I look up a new RB is in the game). Manning and the Broncos are as good as anyone. This game comes down to two things for me....the weather and home field. It's cold, windy and snowing in Foxboro. I trust the Patriots attack in those conditions with the home crowd behind them more than I trust the Broncos.

 

[OnTheHop]

Baltimore Ravens (PICK), 1 unit: Steelers looked like world beaters last week but isn't there something wrong with a team basically having a perfect game on offense and still having to fight deep into the 3rd quarter to lock up a victory? This game comes down to the fact that the Ravens are so much better on the defensive side of the ball that to be able to back them at even, even on the road, has to be done.

 

[OnTheHop]

38-36-2 -5.42

Indianapolis Colts -3, 1 unit: I searched for every possible reason to take the Giants since so many were on the Colts but yet the line stayed steady. The only thing I came up with was the bye week and that they are more rested. That's not good enough for me. Indy has the better offense, the better defense, the better coach, Luck who rarely loses back to back games, the embarrasing loss to the Steelers, two players with revenge on their minds and a partridge in a pear tree. If I lose with the Colts, so be it. I'm tired of losing games because I out think myself and take the "sharp" side...for example yesterday's Texans/Eagles game.

 

[OnTheHop]

39-36-2 -4.42

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5, 1 unit: This one feels a lot like the Colts/Giants game on Monday night. I looked for a reason to take the Browns figuring the whole world would be on the Bengals. The Bengals have two losses, at Indianapolis and at New England. If it were not for the tie against Carolina the number on this game would be closer to 9. Add in the fact that Green comes back tonight and the emotional boost from Still's daughter and things look good for the home team. Looking at the Browns, their record is built on their schedule and the weakness of the teams they've played. They've won 4 of 5 but the best win was Pittsburgh at home. They also lost to Jacksonville during that stretch and would have lost to Tennessee if Locker didn't get hurt. The Browns can't run the ball since their C got hurt and even with the Bengals injuries on D I just don't see how they score enough to keep up with the Bengals at home.

 

[OnTheHop]

39-37-2 -5.52

Buffalo Bills -1 (-115), 1 unit: Great defense, huge home field advantage, the likely return of Watkins and Jackson, a rested team off a bye and the opportunity to jump out to their best record in forever has me taking the Bills.
Dallas Cowboys/Jacksonville Jaguars u45 (-103), 1 unit: The Jacksonville offense is anemic at best. The Cowboys are going to do everything they can to protect Romo which means a lot of max protect with a few receivers in the pattern and also a lot of running the ball which keeps the clock moving. Finally if the Cowboys get any type of significant lead I expect them to go to Weeden early so he can hand the ball off which helps the cause as well.
Detroit Lions -3 (+100), 1 unit: Megatron is back, the Lions are rested off a bye and most importantly I just don't think the Dolphins can keep up the ridiculous + turnover pace they've been on the last few weeks.
San Francisco 49ers +6 (-102), 1 unit: Overreaction to the last games of these teams. Yes, the Saints are starting to turn it around and yes they are dominant in the dome. However the Niners still have weapons on offense and while the Saints D has been better than advertised this number just feels too big to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers/New York Jets u47 (-105), 1 unit: If the Jets have any chance they have to establish the run with their awful offense. The Steelers have been putting up video game numbers but they've done it at home and they are an entirely different team on the road. Look for the wind and cold of the Meadowlands to make it tough on Rothlisberger and the deep ball.
Atlanta Falcons/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o47.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Falcons have a very explosive offense and a brutal defense, so look for them to hold up their end of the bargain. The question is, will the Bucs do the same? Putting McCown back in the lineup makes them more explosive. More importantly, the addition of rookie RB Charles Sims will give them a different dimension. I look for this thing to go up and down the field and am just hoping they don't settle for FG's.

 

[XSPower]

39-37-2 -5.52

Buffalo Bills -1 (-115), 1 unit: Great defense, huge home field advantage, the likely return of Watkins and Jackson, a rested team off a bye and the opportunity to jump out to their best record in forever has me taking the Bills.

Dallas Cowboys/Jacksonville Jaguars u45 (-103), 1 unit: The Jacksonville offense is anemic at best. The Cowboys are going to do everything they can to protect Romo which means a lot of max protect with a few receivers in the pattern and also a lot of running the ball which keeps the clock moving. Finally if the Cowboys get any type of significant lead I expect them to go to Weeden early so he can hand the ball off which helps the cause as well.

Detroit Lions -3 (+100), 1 unit: Megatron is back, the Lions are rested off a bye and most importantly I just don't think the Dolphins can keep up the ridiculous + turnover pace they've been on the last few weeks.

San Francisco 49ers +6 (-102), 1 unit: Overreaction to the last games of these teams. Yes, the Saints are starting to turn it around and yes they are dominant in the dome. However the Niners still have weapons on offense and while the Saints D has been better than advertised this number just feels too big to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers/New York Jets u47 (-105), 1 unit: If the Jets have any chance they have to establish the run with their awful offense. The Steelers have been putting up video game numbers but they've done it at home and they are an entirely different team on the road. Look for the wind and cold of the Meadowlands to make it tough on Rothlisberger and the deep ball.

Atlanta Falcons/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o47.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Falcons have a very explosive offense and a brutal defense, so look for them to hold up their end of the bargain. The question is, will the Bucs do the same? Putting McCown back in the lineup makes them more explosive. More importantly, the addition of rookie RB Charles Sims will give them a different dimension. I look for this thing to go up and down the field and am just hoping they don't settle for FG's.

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

ML Parlay: Denver Broncos/Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks/Green Bay Packers (+129), 2/2.58

 

[OnTheHop]

​Carolina Panthers +7 (+100), 1/2 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

43-41-2 -3.67

Buffalo Bills +4 (-109), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

43-42-2 -4.76

Houston Texans +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Let me get this straight...Texans have a backup QB, no Foster, Browns get Gordon back, have been fantastic at home and are only giving 3.5? Something stinks. Mallett is an upgrade, especially with two weeks to prepare. The defense keeps them in the game and more than a FG is too much.
Chicago Bears -1.5 (-107), 1 unit: The Vikings are not the Packers or the Patriots. For some reason it seems like the Bears like Trestman and want him to stay. This is a circle the wagons game for them and I expect them to play that way.
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 (-108), 1 unit: Pretty sure I just backed The Sanchize on the road on a short week. Ouch. Here's the difference: the run game. The Eagles can run the ball and stop the run. The Packers do not run the ball well and cannot stop the run. There's a big cross wind at Lambeau which may make throwing it difficult. With Philly's tempo, even if they get down, the backdoor should be open all day.
Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-105), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Seahawks with an early start and then Arizona and San Francisco on tap. The loss of Mebane is huge for Seattle. Something about Seattle just doesn't feel the same. Look for Kelce to have a big game for the Chiefs and for the home crowd to carry them in this one.
Cincinnati Bengals +7 (+100), 1 unit: Way too much emphasis being placed on Dalton crapping down his own leg two Thursdays ago. This is a rested Cincy team with A.J. Green back in the lineup. The Saints have a massive home field advantage but they haven't used it this year ATS. Similar to the Seahawks something just seems off with this team. This game should be a shootout and I'll gladly take a TD.
Arizona Cardinals -1 (-105), 1 unit: The Lions have played 3 road games and looked bad in two of them. Bush's injury takes a way a crucial dynamic for them and I think they struggle against an outstanding Cardinals defense. People continue to doubt the Cardinals and Arians but they just keep winning. I'll take the better D, ST and Coach at home with a number like this every time.
New England Patriots +3 (-105), 1 unit: This one is so square it scares me. However, give me Brady and Belichick with a bye week getting points and I can't avoid it. I could see myself buying out of this later today.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Washington Redskins o46 (-101), 1 unit: A rested Skins team with a healthy RG3 should move the ball easily against a Tampa D that can't stop anyone. The Skins will likely blitz all day which should help McCown who doesn't do well against many schemes but blitzes seem to be one of them. If Tampa can do their share this should sail over.
San Francisco 49ers/New York Giants o44.5 (-107), 1 unit: The Giants can't stop anyone. The Niners are coming back across the country for an early start against a team getting their run game back. If the weather cooperates this one should move up and down the field all day.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

49-45-2 -1.92

Tennessee Titans +7 (-120), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

50-45-2 -.92

Oakland Raiders +7.5 (-109), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

51-45-2 +.08

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 (-120), 1 unit: The loss of Bradshaw is going to hurt this Colts team. They have no ability to run the ball. Jags coming off a bye, getting healthier, should have Lewis back at TE to give Bortles another weapon. I think they can keep this one close.
Detroit Lions +7 (+105), 1 unit: Tough to get in front of the Patriots freight train right now. However, they just played at Indy and have GB next week so this could be a sandwich spot. The Lions defense has been fantastic all year and they have the weapons to contain Gronk. With all of those factors in play it's hard not to grab the TD and hope the Lions offense can do enough to keep them in this game.
Washington Redskins +9 (-102), 1 unit: Hold your nose and hope. A few reasons to take Washington here. First, the Niners, while playing better, just aren't the same team as years past. They aren't blowing anyone out and they're allowing teams to stay around. Second, the Niners have the Seahawks in just four days so the backdoor cover should be open all day. Finally, if this isn't one of RG3's best games I'll be surprised. He's been called out by his head coach and I expect him to respond positively.
Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115), 1 unit: If for some reason you read my drivel each week you know I've been all over the Cardinals and haven't loved Seattle. However, this is an absolute must have game for the Seahawks. Also, while Stanton has been good he has not been in an environment like this one. He won at the Giants but got destroyed at Denver. My guess is we see the Seattle team of year's past at home.
Miami Dolphins +7 (-125), 1 unit: The Broncos are beaten up on offense and have been struggling to protect Manning. That's not a good recipe for success against a tough Dolphins defense. Other than the Bills game, Miami has been in every game this season and I'll take an improving Tannehill to keep his team in the game and keep this one close.
Houston Texans -2 (-105), 1 unit: Two weeks ago he was a disaster. Last week Andy Dalton was Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Y.A. Tittle all rolled into one. The Bengals are getting too much credit for beating an overrated New Orleans team. Mallett gave the Texans a different dimension last week and Houston's defense is getting healthy and starting to play good football. Finally, Reliant Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Bengals. I'll give the small number and hope that the loss of Foster is not too much for the Houston offense to overcome.

 

[OnTheHop]

Dallas Cowboys -4 (-120), 1 unit: The Giants have nothing left to play for. They cannot make the playoffs and I don't think they're inclined to try and save Coughlin's job. They just played two of the most physical teams in the league, Seattle and San Francisco, what do they have left? The Cowboys are coming off a bye, Romo is a little healthier, Murray's legs are a little fresher and Dez is still Dez. This may be a square play but it still feels like the right side.

 

[OnTheHop]

54-49-2 -1.37

Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-115), 1 unit
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

55-50-2 -1.47

Detroit Lions/Dallas Cowboys ML Parlay (+102), 2 units
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 (-105), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

56-51-2 -2.47

Oakland Raiders +6 (-105), 1 unit: Raiders have been in every road game this year. A little too much love for the Rams right now. Last home game they beat the Broncos and the line here is less than a TD?
Buffalo Bills -3 (-120), 1 unit: Emotional return to Buffalo after Snowmageddon. Better run game. Better defense. Raucous home crowd.
Baltimore Ravens -6 (-118), 1 unit: I want to like the Chargers...but I just can't. Rivers is not healthy. They are coming East for an early start after surviving a game last week they really had no business winning. Too big of an advantage on both lines of scrimmage for the Ravens. The short week worries me but not enough to stay away.
New York Giants -3 (+100), 1 unit: The lack of quit in the Giants last week was impressive. Their losing streak has been brutal but they have not faced a team as bad as the Jaguars during that streak. They look like they are still fighting hard to win games and if Eli can just protect the ball they'll get it done here.
Tennessee Titans +7 (-110), 1 unit: Don't think the Texans can score enough to cover this number. There is a reason they went to Mallett and now they are going back to Fitzpatrick who had very little success moving the ball. The Titans will sell out to stop the run and take their chances against Fitzpatrick.
Arizona Cardinals -2 (-104), 1 unit: By every measure the Falcons are just bad. If they're not playing Tampa Bay they can't win. Stanton has not been inspiring on the road but his road starts were not against defenses this bad. His tough week last week at Seattle has kept this at a reasonable number.

 

[OnTheHop]

Pretty amazing how badly I am seeing things right now.

Green Bay Packers -2 (-125), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Denver Broncos +1 (-112), 1 unit