Respect you asking my advice, but you're better at this thing than me, so maybe I should just tail your bet!
My opinion has evolved a bit though since my first post in this thread, as a lot has changed in those 4 days.
Since then, everything has gone in Canada's favour.
-The Russians have a sub-par Datsyuk. Nobody knows the extent of his injury, and I think he will play, but if the Olympics were elsewhere, or it was mid-NHL season, does anyone think he would play? I don't for a second, and I think he's a huge cog that the Russians need leading by example on the ice, playing his usual 2-way game. Without him out there at 100%, there's a huge risk of the Russians turning into their usual every-man-for-himself team, and tearing themselves apart. Maybe that's being a little dramatic, but if Team Russia doesn't come out laying the wood at the start of the tournament, the wolves will be out.
- The Swedes lost Henrik and Franzen; replaced with Nyquist and Johansson, who are good players, but aren't in the same league as the aforementioned. Henrik was always going to be dicey, but when he came back for a game it looked like he might be able to play in the Olympics after all. Now, he's out, and they can't replace him very easily, especially since Daniel is less of a threat without his usual centreman.
- The Finns lost Mikko Koivu and Filppula - probably their 2 best forwards. This is a huge blow, as they lack the depth to easily replace their leadership and output. Finland was already really thin up front as far as skill goes, and this doesn't help at all. They are still decent on the back end, and stellar in goal, so can upset anyone in a short tournament with 1-game eliminations, but will definitely struggle to score and will have to rely on their systems and team defence to win.
- The Canadians lost Stamkos, but I think you could argue that St Louis is more than an adequate replacement, especially when you consider that Stammer would have been rusty and far from top form. You can never replace his goal-scoring I don't think, but even if he had gone to Sochi his impact would have been undoubtedly diminished due to his injury.
Carey Price (who I think should start) finished the stretch leading up to the games on fire, giving up only 7GA in his last 6 games. Given that I and many others consider goaltending to be Canada's weak point, this is welcome news for them and Canada backers.
So while I definitely think that the Swedes are a huge threat, and are my pick to win it all (you can't deny the skating they will have on the back end), the chances of Canada winning a medal or the gold got a lot better in the last week. I still don't think there's good value on them, so might lay off the future bet I was contemplating, where I was going to be against them. I probably won't back them either, but will just pick my spots betting or fading them in individual games.
There is still good value on Finland as well, either to steal the group from Canada, or to get a medal or win it all. In a short tournament, does anyone doubt that Rask could win a few 2-1 games in a row? I don't.
No value on Russia for me - they are too much of a wild card at home.
There is probably good value on the Americans. I'm actually not a huge fan of their roster overall, but they definitely have some game-breakers, and while I also think they're shakier in goal than most, Miller has been known to stand on his head in the past.
I see plenty of interesting futures best out there:
To win a medal:
Sweden -143
Finland +200
Winning continent:
North America +130
Rest of the World -170
Thoughts anyone?
Mon night/Tues morning Feb 10/11
3-0, +13.32U overall
Women's Hockey
3U Germany +2 -129 (Pinnacle)
1U Germany ML +350 (Bodog)
4U Russia -2.5 -105 (Bet365)
No time for write-ups, and I haven't had time to cap these nearly as heavily as I would have liked, so tread lightly. GLTA
And sorry for the variety of sites - I typically always use Pinnacle for hockey, but for International sports the books are always all over the map, and Pinny doesn't even have ML bets for the women at the moment. If you want +1.5 on Germany, both Bet365 and Bodog/Bovada has it at even money i think.
3-0, +13.32U overall
Women's Hockey
3U Germany +2 -129 (Pinnacle)
1U Germany ML +350 (Bodog)
4U Russia -2.5 -105 (Bet365)
No time for write-ups, and I haven't had time to cap these nearly as heavily as I would have liked, so tread lightly. GLTA
And sorry for the variety of sites - I typically always use Pinnacle for hockey, but for International sports the books are always all over the map, and Pinny doesn't even have ML bets for the women at the moment. If you want +1.5 on Germany, both Bet365 and Bodog/Bovada has it at even money i think.
I don't know crap about Olympic hockey but here's my limited feel for this.
I think the time adjustment/jet lag will have an effect on the North American squads in the first game or two.
I think the odd hours of these games will be a hindrance to NHL players that are used to normal start times and routines. Especially to goalies like Henrik Lundqvist who admitted to having a "slow start" in the first Yankee Stadium game that was delayed by a hour.
I think the USA squad is more suited to NHL rinks than Euro. Backes, Brown, Callahan, Kesler, Oshie, McDonagh, Orpik, Suter, etc. Tough as nails and grind you to death players doesn't translate to large ice surfaces.
I agree with you regarding the negative effect of a slow start and less than 100% Pavel Datsyuk could have. We've seen the 25 players, 25 cabs mentality of team Russia before. I watched a lot of the KHL last year before the NHL signed the new CBA. They do play as individuals. They are extremely talented offensively. Can dangle with the best of them and put on a very entertaining show. I love their speed and I love the big ice surface. These guys are sky high to be playing at home and having the world as their audience. Bobrovsky has regained his Vezina form and is currently as good as any other netminder in Sochi. Biggest question to me with this team is the defense in front of him.
Canada is just scary good and ridiculously deep. I like Babcock keeping the Hawks, Pens, and Ducks forward lines together. Their question is in goal. I don't trust Louie. I'm hoping Price gets the #1.
Certainly Finland has the best goalies as a whole and probably a solid team defense but for the life of me who are half of these guys? Less than half play in the NHL. If they were so good wouldn't there be more? And the ones that do play in the NHL aren't exactly All-stars. All that being said, in a one game elimination format all it takes is for Rask to run good then anything is possible.
All in all it's hard to not like Canada.
I think the time adjustment/jet lag will have an effect on the North American squads in the first game or two.
I think the odd hours of these games will be a hindrance to NHL players that are used to normal start times and routines. Especially to goalies like Henrik Lundqvist who admitted to having a "slow start" in the first Yankee Stadium game that was delayed by a hour.
I think the USA squad is more suited to NHL rinks than Euro. Backes, Brown, Callahan, Kesler, Oshie, McDonagh, Orpik, Suter, etc. Tough as nails and grind you to death players doesn't translate to large ice surfaces.
I agree with you regarding the negative effect of a slow start and less than 100% Pavel Datsyuk could have. We've seen the 25 players, 25 cabs mentality of team Russia before. I watched a lot of the KHL last year before the NHL signed the new CBA. They do play as individuals. They are extremely talented offensively. Can dangle with the best of them and put on a very entertaining show. I love their speed and I love the big ice surface. These guys are sky high to be playing at home and having the world as their audience. Bobrovsky has regained his Vezina form and is currently as good as any other netminder in Sochi. Biggest question to me with this team is the defense in front of him.
Canada is just scary good and ridiculously deep. I like Babcock keeping the Hawks, Pens, and Ducks forward lines together. Their question is in goal. I don't trust Louie. I'm hoping Price gets the #1.
Certainly Finland has the best goalies as a whole and probably a solid team defense but for the life of me who are half of these guys? Less than half play in the NHL. If they were so good wouldn't there be more? And the ones that do play in the NHL aren't exactly All-stars. All that being said, in a one game elimination format all it takes is for Rask to run good then anything is possible.
All in all it's hard to not like Canada.
on russia as well, got it at -120. i think they score at least 4 on japan, so i took a small play on the over as well. best of luck on all the plays, great start to the olympics so far. anxiously awaiting the lines for the mens games, my book only comes out with the lines about 12 hours before the game starts.
kudos to japan for hanging in there...
their goaltender is good enough for them to cover, maybe stealing a game is a real possibility
having a fun time by the looks of it too..
http://deadspin.com/japans-womens-hockey-team-is-the-lovable-underdog-of-1519969657
their goaltender is good enough for them to cover, maybe stealing a game is a real possibility
having a fun time by the looks of it too..
http://deadspin.com/japans-womens-hockey-team-is-the-lovable-underdog-of-1519969657
men's games are giving me headaches - so many variables. First game of the tournament, with all new teammates, on big ice, etc. ugh I will spend a while longer tomorrow having a look.
Depending on what the line looks like I actually might have a play on the Czechs. While I like Sweden overall, in the first game of the tournament anything can happen. I'm not a big Pavelec fan, and I actually think, especially for the first game, that Kovar (who is a good goalie) gives them a better chance to win. Goalies who have been playing on the big ice - Kovar plays in the KHL, and before that played in the Czech league - will have a big advantage, as the angles are totally different. Don't get me wrong - Lundquist will adjust as he's played plenty on the big ice over the years, but there's a decent chance the Czechs can slip a couple past him, and then it's game on. So, while I'm not totally sold yet that the Swedes will lose to the Czechs, there might be some value in that bet.
Wednesday am, Feb 12
3-3, +4.25U overall
Women's hockey:
3U Finland -2 +122
3U Switzerland/Finland Over 4.5 +113
This is a tough one to call. Like last year's World Championships, both teams are in group A with Canada and the US, and as such were given very little chance of finishing in the top 2. And neither will, although Finland has given both teams a pretty damn good scare. With the new format this year, the bottom 2 from group A (SUI/FIN) will play the top 2 from group B, with the winners facing CAN or USA in the semifinals. So there is a lot to play for in this game, as the winner will play the second place team in group B, and theoretically have a better chance to play for a medal.
What will decide this game is Finland's ability to get to the Swiss goalie (presumably Schelling). If the Swiss can get out of the first without giving up a couple of goals, then Finland could be in trouble. If they get to her early, then both bets look good. I'm mostly hoping that both teams, free of the relentless pressure of CAN and USA, open things up a little and actually generate chances on each other. It would be easy to say that neither team can score, since they collectively have one goal scored in 4 total games, but while other countries are starting to catch up, CAN and USA are still in a class by themselves in women's hockey.
I don't love these bets, but I do like the fact that the public seems to be all over the Swiss, and the under. Not going huge as it's so hard to expect from these 2 after the games they've played so far.
3-3, +4.25U overall
Women's hockey:
3U Finland -2 +122
3U Switzerland/Finland Over 4.5 +113
This is a tough one to call. Like last year's World Championships, both teams are in group A with Canada and the US, and as such were given very little chance of finishing in the top 2. And neither will, although Finland has given both teams a pretty damn good scare. With the new format this year, the bottom 2 from group A (SUI/FIN) will play the top 2 from group B, with the winners facing CAN or USA in the semifinals. So there is a lot to play for in this game, as the winner will play the second place team in group B, and theoretically have a better chance to play for a medal.
What will decide this game is Finland's ability to get to the Swiss goalie (presumably Schelling). If the Swiss can get out of the first without giving up a couple of goals, then Finland could be in trouble. If they get to her early, then both bets look good. I'm mostly hoping that both teams, free of the relentless pressure of CAN and USA, open things up a little and actually generate chances on each other. It would be easy to say that neither team can score, since they collectively have one goal scored in 4 total games, but while other countries are starting to catch up, CAN and USA are still in a class by themselves in women's hockey.
I don't love these bets, but I do like the fact that the public seems to be all over the Swiss, and the under. Not going huge as it's so hard to expect from these 2 after the games they've played so far.
4U USA -140 over Canada
I just think that the Americans are faster and deeper than the Canadians. Don't love the juice, but think there's value there.
6U Canada/USA over 4.5 -160
These teams hate each other, and while they'll be trying to be on their best behaviour (especially after the brawl just before Christmas) because the consequences are much greater at the Olympics, I still expect a ton of power plays. The last half-dozen games they've played each other since October all went over 4.5, although to be fair, 4 of the 6 hit right on 5. Having said that, all those games were with North American referees, used to reffing NA games. We all know that international/Olympic referees call a way tighter game. Tons of power plays = a lot more goals, and we can expect a parade to the box early, as both teams try to set the tone, and the refs try to make sure things don't get out of hand, as they'll be well aware of the recent history between the 2 teams.
GLTA
I just think that the Americans are faster and deeper than the Canadians. Don't love the juice, but think there's value there.
6U Canada/USA over 4.5 -160
These teams hate each other, and while they'll be trying to be on their best behaviour (especially after the brawl just before Christmas) because the consequences are much greater at the Olympics, I still expect a ton of power plays. The last half-dozen games they've played each other since October all went over 4.5, although to be fair, 4 of the 6 hit right on 5. Having said that, all those games were with North American referees, used to reffing NA games. We all know that international/Olympic referees call a way tighter game. Tons of power plays = a lot more goals, and we can expect a parade to the box early, as both teams try to set the tone, and the refs try to make sure things don't get out of hand, as they'll be well aware of the recent history between the 2 teams.
GLTA
