For those that played the ML, Louisville should have won the game outright IMHO! Siva picking up his third foul on a foolish reach in with 6+ minutes to play in the first half, having to sit the balance of the half, and then the first 6+ minutes of the second half stalled the Cardinal offense. Put that together with the their terrible free throw shooting and many points were left off the board. They should have won comfortably.
When following one of my 5* plays, always be conservative and take the points if the play is a dog. If you play the moneyline, do so for much less.
When following one of my 5* plays, always be conservative and take the points if the play is a dog. If you play the moneyline, do so for much less.
I hear ya, Ted. I liked the game on my own and didn't even see you were on it until after it had tipped.
I look at it like this...by betting L'Ville +2.5, you're effectively betting L'Ville will lose by either 1 or 2 points. Otherwise, it makes sense to take the ML. You win extra money if they win outright and save money on juice if they lose.
It obviously doesn't always work out that way (like tonight)...and it feels like a kick to the crotch when you get middled the wrong way. I'd be really curious to see some historical data on games with smaller lines of, say, 3 pts or less so I can take a look at what percentage of the time the points made a difference either way. I suspect it'd be less than 10% of the time.
Anyway, please don't mistake this for sour grapes...that isn't it at all. Just bummed out I couldn't join you guys to cash my own ticket...
