from another topic, I'm reposting my post since I see a 200-1 player here
...
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know.
hedge at 200-1: you want to lock in the same profit regardless of what happens the rest of the playoffs:
for each $100, you can lock in about $2,480 now. Requires $4,120 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Cubs will beat the Marlins, you want ALL profit available if the Cubs win, and wish to break-even in the WS if they don't:
for each $100, you can win $4,025 if the Cubs win the pennant. Requires $6,600 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, but you want to win the same amount in the WS regardless of whether the Marlins win:
for each $100, you can win $6,440 if the Marlins win the pennant, whether they take the WS or not. Requires $160 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the Marlins in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then:
you'll hedge the AL at -200 - different amts shown below:
a. Hedge $1,050 ... this gives you a Bonus Bet to win $18,790 (you're recovering the $100 prop bet and the $160 covering hedge bet on the Cubbies)
b. Hedge $3,000 ... win $16,840 on Marlins or $1,500 on AL
c. Hedge $5,000 ... win $14,840 on Marlins or $2,240 on AL
d. Hedge $7,000 ... win $12,840 on Marlins or $3,240 on AL
e. Hedge $9,000 ... win $10,840 on Marlins or $4,240 on AL
f. Hedge $11,000 ... win $8,840 on Marlins or $5,240 on AL
g. Hedge $13,400 ... win $6,440 on Marlins or $6,440 on AL
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the AL in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then:
a. Hedge $15,000 ... win $4,840 on Marlins or $7,240 on AL
b. Hedge $17,000 ... win $2,840 on Marlins or $8,240 on AL
c. Hedge $19,000 ... win $840 on Marlins or $9,240 on AL
d. Hedge $19,840 ... win $0 on Marlins or $9,660 on AL
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know.
hedge at 200-1: you want to lock in the same profit regardless of what happens the rest of the playoffs:
for each $100, you can lock in about $2,480 now. Requires $4,120 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Cubs will beat the Marlins, you want ALL profit available if the Cubs win, and wish to break-even in the WS if they don't:
for each $100, you can win $4,025 if the Cubs win the pennant. Requires $6,600 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge - for EACH $100.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, but you want to win the same amount in the WS regardless of whether the Marlins win:
for each $100, you can win $6,440 if the Marlins win the pennant, whether they take the WS or not. Requires $160 on the Cubs hedge, $13,400 on the WS hedge.
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the Marlins in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then:
you'll hedge the AL at -200 - different amts shown below:
a. Hedge $1,050 ... this gives you a Bonus Bet to win $18,790 (you're recovering the $100 prop bet and the $160 covering hedge bet on the Cubbies)
b. Hedge $3,000 ... win $16,840 on Marlins or $1,500 on AL
c. Hedge $5,000 ... win $14,840 on Marlins or $2,240 on AL
d. Hedge $7,000 ... win $12,840 on Marlins or $3,240 on AL
e. Hedge $9,000 ... win $10,840 on Marlins or $4,240 on AL
f. Hedge $11,000 ... win $8,840 on Marlins or $5,240 on AL
g. Hedge $13,400 ... win $6,440 on Marlins or $6,440 on AL
hedge at 200-1: you think the Marlins will beat the Cubs, you want to only recover your original $100 if they don't, and you want to favor the AL in the WS - you'll need to make a $160 Cubs hedge bet, then:
a. Hedge $15,000 ... win $4,840 on Marlins or $7,240 on AL
b. Hedge $17,000 ... win $2,840 on Marlins or $8,240 on AL
c. Hedge $19,000 ... win $840 on Marlins or $9,240 on AL
d. Hedge $19,840 ... win $0 on Marlins or $9,660 on AL
Sick who cares what the series line is lol.
Hopefully it is really high.
Marlins will take it in 6. Woof Woof. Bring on them Yankees.
Hopefully it is really high.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Game 1 Cubs Zambrano -124 Florida -Beckett +114.
Series: Cubs -162 take back Marlins plus 147.
wilsick.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
will, I disagree. I'll call Game 1 -145/+135 for Zambrano/Beckett. Series will open -180/+160 at Olympic.
Game 1: @Cubs -145 Zambrano/Beckett
Game 2: @Cubs -190 Prior/Penny
Game 3: vs. Cubs -135 Wood/Willis
Game 4: @ Fla -125 Redman/Clement<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Olympic has spoken.
SERIES: Cubs -180/Fla +160
lol look above
Game 1: Cubs -116/-104 (suprised there) -- that will steam higher for sure. Fla will end a +120 dog at least IMO.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Game 1 Cubs Zambrano -124 Florida -Beckett +114.
Series: Cubs -162 take back Marlins plus 147.
wilsick.
will, I disagree. I'll call Game 1 -145/+135 for Zambrano/Beckett. Series will open -180/+160 at Olympic.
Game 1: @Cubs -145 Zambrano/Beckett
Game 2: @Cubs -190 Prior/Penny
Game 3: vs. Cubs -135 Wood/Willis
Game 4: @ Fla -125 Redman/Clement<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Olympic has spoken.
SERIES: Cubs -180/Fla +160
Game 1: Cubs -116/-104 (suprised there) -- that will steam higher for sure. Fla will end a +120 dog at least IMO.
5Dimes has odds of Florida not winning the World Series at -750...might be easier going that route if you want to hedge.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jazz:
from another topic, I'm reposting my post since I see a 200-1 player here
...
_
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:_
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jazz:
from another topic, I'm reposting my post since I see a 200-1 player here
_
For all Marlins players holding a futures bet at 200 to 1:_
I'll assume you haven't hedged yet. For each $100 you've got on this bet, here's how to hedge it NOW to lock in profits or reduce risk under different scenarios - you lucky bastards!!! All scenarios assume the Cubs will open as -160 favorites AND, if the Marlins get to the WS, the AL team will open as -200 favorites (to be safe) - obviously if it doesn't, I can rerun the numbers (I wrote a simple spreadsheet yesterday to do this). I'm also assuming you will put a $160 bet on the Cubs to recover your $100 proposition bet. Also, I'm not going to show my work - lol - unless someone needs to know or has a question. If your units are in terms of $10, simply divide all numbers by 10 to get what you need. I did this because some people may be wondering 'what if' - now they'll know. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Probably right, D2 - it is now at +140.
Shotgun: good point, I'd also wait for Pinnacle to post those kind of odds - they usually do. With -750, for each $100 at 200-1, you could bet $17,735 to lock in $2,264.71. But the problem will be, can you actually get that much down on that prop? I suppose you could call and ask. Of course the problem with all those hedges is that if you're a smaller player, you may not have the bankroll to cover fully.
Shotgun: good point, I'd also wait for Pinnacle to post those kind of odds - they usually do. With -750, for each $100 at 200-1, you could bet $17,735 to lock in $2,264.71. But the problem will be, can you actually get that much down on that prop? I suppose you could call and ask. Of course the problem with all those hedges is that if you're a smaller player, you may not have the bankroll to cover fully.
