NumberZ, I have this at +130, but before playing this, I would be interested in your thoughts on the likely matchup with Cleveland in the championship. I certainly agree that the lakers at plus odds are a decent value, but (like many) am worried about facing LeBron and the Cavs. Thanks very much !
OK Zebguy, let's break this down together...
For one thing, the Lakers undoubtedly face the tougher task of even making the Finals, than the Cavaliers. Where Cleveland, faced teams, like the Pistons, Hawks, and eventually the winner of the Maigic/Celtics series, the Lakers had to go through the Jazz, Rockets, and eventually will have to beat the Nuggets to advance. Where some simply, take note of the Cavs dominance, and the Lakers inability to dominate the way that many expected, I see it very differently. Lakers will be the more battle tested team coming into the Championship series. They will have faced adversity, been through losses, faced the challanges of adjusting to their opponent in bounce back games, etc...while going through this process, the ups and downs of a team like the Lakers, tend to instill doubt in fans and bettors alike, however these challenges and the adversity that accompanies them, only makes them more ready to deal with the variety of possibilities that can arise from facing a tough opponent, such as the Cavs down the line..Cavs have been able to coast, thus far, and should they face the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, another very short series can be expected...History favors the team, (most definitely between opponents that are more or less evenly matched in terms of personnel), that has been through the adversity of losing, and consequently had to face the daunting challenge of bouncing back when their backs are against the wall, etc. It is as the old saying goes, "What does not kill you, only makes you stronger"..Or in this case..Games that don't lead to your elimination, only make you better, and help you grow as a team...They prepare you for the momentary setbacks, that naturally result from facing tough opponents..They mold the mindset of a team, making them tougher and mentally stronger with each battle, and obstacle they have to surpass..Think back to last year's quest for the title, bewteen Boston and L.A...Boston had to play two b2b 7-game series, and finally a 6 game series against the Pistons before advancing, while the Lakers cruised to the Finals..We all know how that turned out, as Boston responded to going down big in game 4, only to come back and win that game, which had they lost, the series would have evened up at 2 a piece, with game 5 in L.A., and the chance of going down 3-2, with one more game in L.A. still to play. They then followed that comeback, with a loss in game 5 to the Lakers, only to return to the Garden to destroy the Lakers by 39 points, to eliminate them, and earn themselves the right to be called Champions..In a nutshell, the bumpy road the Celtics had to get through, in order to make the Finals, prepared the team mentally, for any obstacle that should come their way..It united them as a team, made them mentally tough, added to their confidence as a team, and strengthened their resolve..Every challenge they faced, and each time they rose to the task, reiterated their ability to persevere despite the challenges they faced...Similarly the Lakers of this year, face some of the same challenges, with the only difference being, they are dealing with much tougher competition than the Celtics faced last season..So, where some take note of the Cavs domination over opponents, and the Lakers inability to dominate as expected, I take note of a team growing mentally, and becoming better prepared to face whatever obstacles that may lie ahead, and conversely for the Cavs, a very good team that has yet to face a half way decent opponent..Simple as that...Now let's move on to the all important matchups, and briefly say a few words for each..
Lets start with the back court matchup..First the point guards..
Mo Williams VS Derick Fisher...
For starters, a very big edge here, for the Lakers in terms of experience..Derick Fisher is the ideal point guard to lead a team in a playoff series,most specifically in a championship series..he plays defense, he has consistently shown the ability to knock down jumpers, and does a good job of taking care of the basketball...Important to keep in mind, that Fisher has been here many a times before! Experience should not be overlooked here..His leadership skills, and ability to remain calm in crunch time, cannot be understated..He also has the edge in terms of size, as both Mo Williams and Derick Fisher measure in at 6-1, but Fisher has about a 20-30 pound weight advantage, which should prove advantageous in what will be a physical series..Fisher the more seasoned point guard, also the more physical of the 2, and better all around player between the 2 (not to take anything away from Mo Williams), but Fisher's all around game speaks for itself...
Edge: Lakers
Lets move on to the starting shooting guards...
Delonte West VS Kobe Bryant..
I very seriously doubt, the Cavs will put West on Bryant, although we may see him guard him at times..Lebron will handle the bulk of the responsibilty in guarding Kobe..The matchup of shooting guards, however, does not deserve attention or time...Kobe is the best player in the league right now, and is in championship form, West is simply an overachieving guard who has the luxury of playing next to Williams, and Lebron..I personally like him as a player, but the comparison here is not even close...A fun little stat: Coming off a loss in the playoffs this season, the Lakers are 3-0, due to the fact that Kobe has averaged 35 points on 60% shooting following a loss..He has the moves, the smarts, the skill, the killer instinct, and the competitve drive that it takes to be considered the best..Like I said, this one isn't even close..
Edge: Lakers
Now, lets move on the Small Forwards...
Lebron James, is the most exciting talent the NBA has seen, since Kobe entered the league..He is an amazing player and little can be said to dispute that..the edge here, will undoubtedly have to go the Cavaliers..However, there is something to be said of the Lakers depth and versatility at the Small Forward position..Between the likes, of Ariza, and Odom, (who as listes as PF, but is versatile enough to play both positions), the Lakers can depend on Odom's size and Ariza's athleticism, for quality minutes on both sides of the ball..Defensively, Odom's length, becomes crucial in the eventual double teams that will be thrown Lebron's way..Offensively, Ariza's ability to knock down the 3, as well as his explosive ability to get to the rim, prove to be a formidable threat on the offensive end..As I said earlier, the edge here will undoubtedly, have to go to the Cavaliers, and respects need to be payed to Lebron...However, I believe the Lakers have the personnel, to keep this advantage from being too much to overcome from the SF position, as their versatility in this position keeps it from becoming a dominating advantage for the Cavaliers..
Edge: Cleveland
Now, let's move on to the starting Power Forwards...
Size wise, there is no edge for one team or the other, as both Varejao and Gasol, are very similar in terms of height and weight..Their most notable difference, is namely in the fact that, one player can be a consistent scoring threat throughout a series, while the other is limited to being a threat only on the defensive end..Both good defenders, but Gasol's ability to score in a variety of ways, from different part's of the floor, will leave the Cavs severely outmatched on the offensive end from the Power Forward position..These are points that will hurt them, throughout the duration of a long series, imo..Big edge to the Lakers here..
Edge: Lakers
Now moving on the Center position..
The Lakers, will switch back and forth from Gasol as center, and Bynum as center..One way or the other, I think the Lakers once again get the edge here, namely due to the fact the Big Z plays from the outside, more so than you would like from your starting center...Though he has shown the ability to knock down open jumpers, and stretch a defense by the threat of his outside jumpshot over the years, his post game is nothing special, to say the least..Centers, in the NBA, imo, are graded as good or bad depending on their ability to control the PAINT on both sides of the ball...Which means, rebounding, shot blocking, post defense, the ability to score in the paint etc...An edge that has to be given here to the Lakers, in light of how much Big Z loves to play from the outside..I expect Bynums minutes in this series to be big, and significant, on both sides of the ball..Avoiding foul trouble, should not be an issue for the young and talented center, as he will not often have to guard Ilgauskus down low..Ilgauskus, will in all likelihood, make a living from the outside, as he has throughout most of his career..So the edge here, imo, goes to the Lakers once again..
Edge: Lakers
All in all, the Lakers to me, are too versatile of a team, for the Cavs to matchup with..Also too much talent for the Cavs to overcome..Experience is also on their side, as this team is not very far removed from last year's Finals appearance..The bitter taste left in their mouths, from last year's loss in the Finals, will be in the back of every Laker player's mind, throughout the series..They will be motivated, they will be battle tested, and they will be ready...
A few side notes.....
Cavs have had the luxury of matching up against teams who play a one-on-one style of game, to this point in the playoffs...Neither the Pistons nor the Hawks, were teams willing to make the extra pass to find an open shooter and take better percentage shots..and the Cavs took advantage..The Lakers, however, understand the significance of moving the ball around, and are not a stagnant team on offense, which should take away from the facade of the machine like defense, that is the Cavaliers...
As most of you know, the 2-3-2 format in the Championship series, favors the road team...A part of me has a very difficult time envisioning the Cavs beating the Lakers in L.A., conversely, I see the Lakers winning one or more games in Quicken..They were the best road team in the NBA throughout the regular season, going into Boston (when Boston was healthy) into Denver, into San Antonio, into Cleveland, and won with relative ease..Those were not the only good teams they beat on the road, but just a few off the top of my head..this team is built to win on the road, and can adjust from playing a fast paced game to playing a half court game, depending on which suits them best..They are versatille, deep, and skilled, in nearly every position, something which we cannot say about the Cavs..
A big reason, why the Cavs were able to enjoy so much success during the regular season, and to this point in the playoffs, has been due to their ability to hold teams to less than 90 points a game..Cavs consistently won games of the 90-70 sort, but that alone will not be enough against the high octane offense of the Lakers, who possess a very potent offensive scoring arsenal..The Cavs will need to keep pace offensively, something which I don't believe they'll be able to do over a 7 game series against these Lakers..Cavs tend to rely heavily on transition offense, but imo, this approach will be a recipe for disaster, as the Lakers would like nothing more than to run up and down, and keep this a high scoring series, with a quick tempo..
Coaching, also heavily favors the Lakers here...Phil Jackson knows how to coach championship teams, something which cannot be said of Mike Brown and his crew...This is Mike Browns 4th season as a head coach, meanwhile Phil Jackson is in his 18th season as a head coach and will be coaching for his 10th title this year...
I would love to continue this conversation with anyone interested leading up to the Finals, as I am sure there is plenty more to talk about..Until then, GL as always
