McCain got his bounce and it's slowly but steadily receding. McCain's lead in the Gallup poll has gone from 5 to 4 to 3 to 2 in the last four releases. Figure within 3-4 days most polls will be right back at a dead heat where it was before the conventions. Then probably nothing changes too much until the debates, unless there are major revelations, gaffes or events. Some of the luster has been peeled off of Palin, but ultimately her star will fade and we'll get back to the core of Obama v. McCain and a battle of who can change Washington and who has the better economic plan.
I haven't noticed McCain making direct appeals for the Latrino vote. That has surprised me. Nobody seems to be talking about it, or even talking about immigration. Still a minefield. But the Latinos would be really big out in the west battegrounds Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado. That trio can easily decide the election. It seems that Obama has receovered from the trouble he had in that group against Hillary.
I don't have a good read on VA. A lot of epopel have it in the same category as Ohio or an even better chance to steal. My sense is that it is not. I feel Ohio is a more likely steal.
Anyway, through all the polls and everything else, please do not forget to factor in the stuff that happens behind the scenes and on the ground. Organizations can win and lose elections, and their impact is often not well represented in the polls.
I haven't noticed McCain making direct appeals for the Latrino vote. That has surprised me. Nobody seems to be talking about it, or even talking about immigration. Still a minefield. But the Latinos would be really big out in the west battegrounds Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado. That trio can easily decide the election. It seems that Obama has receovered from the trouble he had in that group against Hillary.
I don't have a good read on VA. A lot of epopel have it in the same category as Ohio or an even better chance to steal. My sense is that it is not. I feel Ohio is a more likely steal.
Anyway, through all the polls and everything else, please do not forget to factor in the stuff that happens behind the scenes and on the ground. Organizations can win and lose elections, and their impact is often not well represented in the polls.
