If your really serious thinking about betting Obama wait.
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="titlesTR"><th class="contractNameTitle contractNames">Intrade Political 'Securities'</th> <th>Percentage</th> <th>US$ Traded</th> </tr> <tr style="height: 2px;"> </tr> <tr> <td class="contractNames"> John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election </td> <td class="values"> 51.3% </td> <td class="values"> $5.3M </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="contractNames"> Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election </td> <td class="values"> 48.0% </td> <td class="values"> $3.9M</td></tr></tbody> </table> McCain for the first time is ahead on intrade. Think again.
Everybody told me to wait until after Obama's convention and I'd get better odds on McCain, but in June I plundged in on McCain and couldn't be happier.
If you ask me the blum is off the Obama rose. All the king's horses & all the kings men can't put BO back togehter again. It's crumbling for him.
That's a pretty good list but as OP noted, McCain needs more of those and that is just the fact. Obama could win just those first three states (31 out of 96) and take it with Kerry's 252 plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, for a total of 273 (plus I think he takes NH for 4 more).
I think McCain must steal at least one Kerry state and his only real prospects (in order of likelihood) are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota. If he can't take one of those then he is going to be in serious trouble given that Obama is almost sure to take Iowa which gives him 259 with a whole host of other possible steals. If McCain steals MI or PA then Obama needs to steal OH, FL or VA.
Fair enough. Obama has a slight handicap. So theoretically Obama could come away with a few less out of those 7 and still win, but in all likelihood the winner of the election will be the candidate who gets the most votes out of those states.
You may even be able to narrow it down to CO/MI/NM.
You may even be able to narrow it down to CO/MI/NM.
I look at it in terms of steals. I'm already giving Iowa to Obama so he's at 259. Start with McCain steals. He has to steal somewhere. MI and PA are the biggies. WI likes Obama and MN is still pretty liberal, so I think those are very unlikely. If McCain can't steal MI or PA then he has to thread a serious needle. Obama has on his radar FL (27), OH (20), VA (13), IN (11), MO (11), CO (9), NM (5), NV (5), NH (4), plus one lone split vote in NE.
New Hampshire looks pretty favorable too. So CO + NH would get it done. There's just so many possibilities.
That's why I think the two states to watch are the ones McCain needs to get a steal from.....Michigan and Pennsylvania. If you tell me those go Obama then I say McCain is in serious serious trouble.
there americans what do you expect. the world is supposed to revolve around them. especially these older ones like willie99. older guys who dont want to see a black man in office in there lifetime. guys like him will always be on the defensive when it comes to anything that they dislike or dont want to see.
Now is the time, I agree. If you are betting Obama, do it now. I think this is as low as its going to get. Basically we are 1 week from convention bonus, and IMO Mccain numbers are going to go down from here on out. The polls still out are from Sept 7/8, which show the bonus from the convention. To assume that this is tread, is incorrect.
Forget about your political affliations. This is Obamas race to lose. He the numbers on his side.
I don't think Obama losses any of the Kerry states, except for maybe New Hampshire. The two states which Mccain has chance taking from Dems, is Michigan/PA. However even after the convention bounce, its still +2 lead for Obama. These states, which traditionally are Dems aren't just going to swing +3 like that. Add to the fact Dems outnumber Reps in these, alot of new registration is going in these states (400,000+) in Michigan, Florida and North Carilona. It's VERY unlikely these two states turn Red, given that Mccain has to allocate his resources else where.
That brings us to Florida/Ohio/Virginia. If Mccain loses any of these, basically its game over for him. Florida is basically tie (again 400,000 new registered votes which majority are probably dems). Mccain has slight edge in Virginia/Ohio. Obama doesn't even have to win any of these. He just has to stay competitive that Mccain is left to allocate almost all his resources in these states.
Then you have the traditional red stats in NC, Indiana, missouri, and south dakota which are running close. I don't think Obama has any chance in these states, but typically it would be considered a gimmie, which isn't anymore. So more resources need to be allocated.
Assuming Mccain has kept Florida/Ohio/Virginia and the traditional states, that leaves Obama with 252. Add Iowa which is given, its 259.
That means he needs 11 from Nevada (5) Coloroda (9) New Mexico (5). He is currently winning in 2/3 of the 3, and he was winning in New Mexico before the convention (down about 2 points). If its a tie 269, I think congress votes, which would mean Obama wins. So all he needs is 2 out of the 3. And that is ASSUMING everything goes well for Mccain in regards to those swing states.
Math is against Mccain. The only scenario I see him winning is total blowout due to big Obama gaffee or big revelation.
So take Obama before Monday, because I think the polls will start going the other way after the convention bounce.
Forget about your political affliations. This is Obamas race to lose. He the numbers on his side.
I don't think Obama losses any of the Kerry states, except for maybe New Hampshire. The two states which Mccain has chance taking from Dems, is Michigan/PA. However even after the convention bounce, its still +2 lead for Obama. These states, which traditionally are Dems aren't just going to swing +3 like that. Add to the fact Dems outnumber Reps in these, alot of new registration is going in these states (400,000+) in Michigan, Florida and North Carilona. It's VERY unlikely these two states turn Red, given that Mccain has to allocate his resources else where.
That brings us to Florida/Ohio/Virginia. If Mccain loses any of these, basically its game over for him. Florida is basically tie (again 400,000 new registered votes which majority are probably dems). Mccain has slight edge in Virginia/Ohio. Obama doesn't even have to win any of these. He just has to stay competitive that Mccain is left to allocate almost all his resources in these states.
Then you have the traditional red stats in NC, Indiana, missouri, and south dakota which are running close. I don't think Obama has any chance in these states, but typically it would be considered a gimmie, which isn't anymore. So more resources need to be allocated.
Assuming Mccain has kept Florida/Ohio/Virginia and the traditional states, that leaves Obama with 252. Add Iowa which is given, its 259.
That means he needs 11 from Nevada (5) Coloroda (9) New Mexico (5). He is currently winning in 2/3 of the 3, and he was winning in New Mexico before the convention (down about 2 points). If its a tie 269, I think congress votes, which would mean Obama wins. So all he needs is 2 out of the 3. And that is ASSUMING everything goes well for Mccain in regards to those swing states.
Math is against Mccain. The only scenario I see him winning is total blowout due to big Obama gaffee or big revelation.
So take Obama before Monday, because I think the polls will start going the other way after the convention bounce.
Great to see this getting analytical rather than the typical McCain willl win, Obama will win rhetoric.....
I think McCain rally's the base in Florida and wins that state honestly, got him as a decent fav there, however, that was a Bush state to begin with. I see Obama taking NM/IA and like I said this means he needs to win 1 of VA/CO/OH and he wins the election. This doesn't even count the fact that NV is in play for him, although I probably think he loses that too. I think he is a slight favorite in both VA and CO despite what people say and I think he is a slight dog in OH (although not really sure why, you would think MI/OH would be the biggest slam dunk states for Dems considering the economy is by far the #1 issue there since they've both been decimated with job losses and that is an issue polls point to that show the dems have a big lead)
I think it is way underreported in the media how much the electoral favors Obama right now. I'll go as far to say it would be a COLOSSAL blunder if he can't get win 1 of the 3-4 key swing states..Also, as for anyone who said he might lose PA or MI, I really doubt that. Its possible, but it would be the equivilent of McCain losing a North Carolina or one of the less republican southern states...
I think McCain rally's the base in Florida and wins that state honestly, got him as a decent fav there, however, that was a Bush state to begin with. I see Obama taking NM/IA and like I said this means he needs to win 1 of VA/CO/OH and he wins the election. This doesn't even count the fact that NV is in play for him, although I probably think he loses that too. I think he is a slight favorite in both VA and CO despite what people say and I think he is a slight dog in OH (although not really sure why, you would think MI/OH would be the biggest slam dunk states for Dems considering the economy is by far the #1 issue there since they've both been decimated with job losses and that is an issue polls point to that show the dems have a big lead)
I think it is way underreported in the media how much the electoral favors Obama right now. I'll go as far to say it would be a COLOSSAL blunder if he can't get win 1 of the 3-4 key swing states..Also, as for anyone who said he might lose PA or MI, I really doubt that. Its possible, but it would be the equivilent of McCain losing a North Carolina or one of the less republican southern states...
the "experts" attribute the McCain surge to Palin (which was an excellent choice BTW)
I agree with that, but it was mostly due to a coordinated take down of the commodity markets and a more upbeat feeling of the economy in general
the economy is going to get worse...we'll see if they can stave off the damage until after the elections (BTW - the manipulation is more to to save those in Congress than anything else)
look for Obama to go on the attack regarding the economy soon....he is off base in this area, but the American public is stupid and will eat it up....always looking for somebody to blame
I agree with that, but it was mostly due to a coordinated take down of the commodity markets and a more upbeat feeling of the economy in general
the economy is going to get worse...we'll see if they can stave off the damage until after the elections (BTW - the manipulation is more to to save those in Congress than anything else)
look for Obama to go on the attack regarding the economy soon....he is off base in this area, but the American public is stupid and will eat it up....always looking for somebody to blame
