preview...
Carmelita vs Herediano
- regular season in CR was as I predicted with Herediano, Saprissa, Alajuelense, and Cartagines making the playoffs. Herediano in tremendous form but this is a nothing match for them so will largely play fringe players and starters that need extra fitness. Carmelita solid club sitting 6th on table...right about where they expected to be. Herediano seems overpriced here with more or less reserves suiting up. In away matches vs non-playoff teams they were 2.00 at Perez this week, 1.90 at Santos, 1.92 at Uruguay, 2.00 at Limon, 2.20 at Puntarenas and are now 1.65 with non-regulars? Carmelita plenty of motivation as they've not beaten Herediano in 10 years and will likely not have a better chance to do so for several more. Two months ago Herediano won this fixture at home 2-1 in a match Carmelita led 1-0 and price on that was 1.50. Line doesn't make much sense to me so a unit at big odds is worth a shot. I'd have priced Herediano +120 not -150
- regular season in CR was as I predicted with Herediano, Saprissa, Alajuelense, and Cartagines making the playoffs. Herediano in tremendous form but this is a nothing match for them so will largely play fringe players and starters that need extra fitness. Carmelita solid club sitting 6th on table...right about where they expected to be. Herediano seems overpriced here with more or less reserves suiting up. In away matches vs non-playoff teams they were 2.00 at Perez this week, 1.90 at Santos, 1.92 at Uruguay, 2.00 at Limon, 2.20 at Puntarenas and are now 1.65 with non-regulars? Carmelita plenty of motivation as they've not beaten Herediano in 10 years and will likely not have a better chance to do so for several more. Two months ago Herediano won this fixture at home 2-1 in a match Carmelita led 1-0 and price on that was 1.50. Line doesn't make much sense to me so a unit at big odds is worth a shot. I'd have priced Herediano +120 not -150
as you guys might remember every year i get some chases going for teams leading at HT. in the big 5 leagues in Europe only 3 teams right now have failed to lead at HT
freiburg, espanyol, cardiff
if you've got the bankroll and the nerves to play chases I would suggest starting a chase on these teams (i didn't play Freiburg yday as odds so poor vs EB) and both cardiff and espanyol play today. last year i waited until there was 1 team left, pescara, and played them for HT win which ended pretty quickly.
you can get cardiff +450 and espanyol +275 to lead at the break today if you choose. I will not be posting these incremental bets but i can pretty much guarantee that by season's end all 3 of these teams will lead at HT in a match
freiburg, espanyol, cardiff
if you've got the bankroll and the nerves to play chases I would suggest starting a chase on these teams (i didn't play Freiburg yday as odds so poor vs EB) and both cardiff and espanyol play today. last year i waited until there was 1 team left, pescara, and played them for HT win which ended pretty quickly.
you can get cardiff +450 and espanyol +275 to lead at the break today if you choose. I will not be posting these incremental bets but i can pretty much guarantee that by season's end all 3 of these teams will lead at HT in a match
largest was this year on Montreal to be tied at HT in road MLS match. ended up having to put in about 8.5u bet before it won but that was a rough one (my avg normal game bet is about 1.2-1.25u). the way i run my chases is "to win' 1u .... and since HT draws pay on average about +110 that accumulated quickly
so today i have .36u on Espanyol HT +275 (again this is NOT on my official record)
cardiff i would play .22u +450
so then if they lose let's take cardiff for example. they have arsenal next match so will likely be similar odds. in that case i'll put in a bet of .27u to win 1.22 units....etc, etc
just a way to build some extra bank without any major risk on bets that WILL win eventually
yeah i wait until just a few teams in major leagues are left then i look at future schedules. if espanyol had atletico, real madrid, and barcelona coming up in december i wouldn't touch it even though odds would be huge i also look historically to make sure this result (1H win for example) isn't something that has happened before. In montreal away draw chase i couldn't find a single instance in mls history that a team didn't draw on the road at least once. that one was rough since it lasted quite a while and never at big odds. with these 3 teams chasing a 1H win you'll get decent odds on all games
