NFL Week 8

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You’ve nailed it with respect to the overwhelming rush advantage for TEN’s #7 rush-O versus IND’s #28 rush-D, but the numbers don’t stop there. Flip the script for a moment and compare IND’s 32nd ranked rush-O (32nd!!) versus TEN’s 8th ranked rush-D (90 ypg). That pretty much forces IND to be one-dimensional. And although being forced to rely solely on Manning is not exactly a bad thing, it will be tough sledding against TEN’s 5th ranked pass-D (179 ypg). What I love about TEN is that they are just a good ol’ fashioned, kick-your-ass defensive team that does not appear to have a lot of flaws.

Does not “appear” to have flaws is the key part of the prior statement above however. While everything certainly points to TEN controlling this game via their shut-down D and monster ground attack....there are two things that are scaring me away from pulling the trigger on a TEN play: First, I am not convinced that TEN has faced an offense with as much talent or potential as IND’s offense. Say what you will about IND's struggles, they still have a lot of talent and potential. I scanned TEN's past games looking for a decent passing O that they've faced and all I could come up with was HOU and CIN. Not exactly a vote of confidence considering the sorry state of CIN and that the game versus HOU was back in week 3 (before they were running the ball well with Slaton).

The second thing that scares me away from a play on TEN is the "Manning Factor" in the 2nd half. Like I said in a previous post, I can totally see TEN controlling the game for about 3 quarters, spinning clock, sitting on a two score lead, doing the right things.....only to have it all evaporate in a matter of minutes.


While I am having a hard time with the side in this contest, I really do like the Over (surprise, surpsrise, right? lol). Anyway, I think there will be a little bit more offense in this one than people may think. The public appears to be pushing this number downward, so I am curious to see what the eventual floor value will be. I like anything south of 40 on this one (but will take 40, if necessary or depending on price).



Adding:

2* IND OV 40 -110
 

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Hang in there buddy. I hope your individual bets went better and kept your head above water yesterday.

Didn't really like the board yesterday. Ended up only playing BAL-8.5 for a unit, so I'm still up. A little embarrassed about the parlay, but up.:103631605

Was hoping to see you on Tenny tonight, but I took 'em anyway. I like the matchups we discussed earlier. Good luck with the over!
 

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Didn't really like the board yesterday. Ended up only playing BAL-8.5 for a unit, so I'm still up. A little embarrassed about the parlay, but up.:103631605

Was hoping to see you on Tenny tonight, but I took 'em anyway. I like the matchups we discussed earlier. Good luck with the over!

Nothing to be embarrassed about. Parlays are so difficult to hit. When you are shooting for 100% perfection on multiple games, it really doesn't matter if you miss by one game or four games.

As far as tonight, I have TEN in MAC's capper contest, but for some reason I am still having a hard time pulling the trigger on a side in this one. TEN should dominate these guys and make them very one dimensional. But I still am scared of the Manning Factor in the 4th quarter if this is a close contest. So I am banking on a few extra points being scored either via TEN domination or via Manning finding success at some point tonight (even if it takes all game long to achieve).

BOL tonight my friend!
 

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Thanks, buddy. And right back at you.
Good to see you continuing your MNF dominance.

It's hard to believe, but my record for MNF is 11~1~1 so far. :think2:

This has got to end, right? The odds and laws of probability have to catch up with me, right? I would not blame anyone if they choose to blindly fade my MNF picks from here on out based on the probability of me cooling off sooner or later.
 

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It's hard to believe, but my record for MNF is 11~1~1 so far. :think2:

This has got to end, right? The odds and laws of probability have to catch up with me, right? I would not blame anyone if they choose to blindly fade my MNF picks from here on out based on the probability of me cooling off sooner or later.

I just wanted to make sure that 11~1~1 was indeed correct. It is. Here's the breakdown:

Monday Night Football Record:

Week 1......3~0
Week 2......1~0
Week 3......2~0
Week 4......1~0
Week 5......1~0
Week 6......1~1
Week 7......1~0~1
Week 8......1~0
-------------------
Total.........11~1~1<!-- / message -->
 

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Nice work on Monday night! In spite of being up 40 units this year, MNF for me has been one calamitous, snake-bitten affair after another, lol. The Over was my only recommended play for this last week, so we had the consensus of 2 winner there, lol. Looks like the crunch man needs to check the Whisky play for Monday nights to see if we have a consensus in future games. BTW, are you at all embarrassed about your Dallas cover? lol
 

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Nice work on Monday night! In spite of being up 40 units this year, MNF for me has been one calamitous, snake-bitten affair after another, lol. The Over was my only recommended play for this last week, so we had the consensus of 2 winner there, lol. Looks like the crunch man needs to check the Whisky play for Monday nights to see if we have a consensus in future games. BTW, are you at all embarrassed about your Dallas cover? lol

Thanks Crunch. The funny thing is that in all of the past years it has been the complete opposite ~ kicking ass on large Sunday cards and then struggling a bit with the small MNF cards. Obviously I would gladly stink it up again Mondays if it meant that I could regain my footing on Sundays.

But as long as it continues to remain a strength I might as well ride the MNF wave until it crests. But odds are high I may be a better fade going forward on MNF, figuring that the laws of probability will catch up with me here.

As far as Dallas....I felt fortunate but also felt deserved with the funky missed call that cost me an ATL cover and the sudden reverse of fortune and momentum that screwed up that PIT game.

BOL with all your action this week Crunch and keep kicking ass my friend!!
 

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Ugh, was just watching some of that NYG/PIT game today, where evvvvvvvvverything went the Giants way in the 4th q. Gross. Atlanta must have stung for everyone that had them, because that ticket was mentally cashed before that punt, I'd image, and still looked very good until the fluke run by Westbrook.
 

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Ugh, was just watching some of that NYG/PIT game today, where evvvvvvvvverything went the Giants way in the 4th q. Gross. Atlanta must have stung for everyone that had them, because that ticket was mentally cashed before that punt, I'd image, and still looked very good until the fluke run by Westbrook.

Exactly! You summed it up exactly. I mentally cashed that ATL ticket at that exact moment you mentioned. But my spirits were still high because the ATL loss made me 5~1~1 going into the late afternoon games and I was feeling really good about my 3* PIT play and 2* Over play. Then upon watching the actual game, I was no longer confident in the Over, but I was still feeling good about PIT....until momentum shifted with that flubbed punt snap.

Oh well. That's why we love this sport so much. Nothing is ever a certainty and "Any given team, on any given Sunday....." (You know the rest!)
 

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I suppose I should stop posting and bumping a Week 8 thread. No need to comment back Crunch. Have a great Week 9 my friend ~ we'll chat I am sure in a Week 9 thread.

And to everyone else.....no Week 9 picks to post yet. I have been so busy with work that I honestly have not even looked at the Week 9 schedule yet. But I plan to do so a little bit tonight and then do some capping Thursday and Friday.

One thing that I do know is that GB plays TEN. And I also know that in theory, that is a great spot for GB.

GB is getting healthy again. James Jones is back at WR. Harris is back at CB. Pickett is finally getting his sea-legs back underneath him again (with him missing so much action in the preaseason, he is just starting to get into game shape and regaining his stamina now), so he should be feeling pretty frisky this weekend which is great news for GB's run defense. Aaron Rogers is still favoring his shoulder in practice, but he's better than he's ever been since the injury.

I am not saying that GB is going to get back to last year's status....but I am saying that this is generally a second half of the season team and if there was ever a time for them to make a statement, it would be this weekend. Two weeks of rest versus a team on a short week. I will be taking a very close look at this game.

See you all soon.
 

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