You’ve nailed it with respect to the overwhelming rush advantage for TEN’s #7 rush-O versus IND’s #28 rush-D, but the numbers don’t stop there. Flip the script for a moment and compare IND’s 32nd ranked rush-O (32nd!!) versus TEN’s 8th ranked rush-D (90 ypg). That pretty much forces IND to be one-dimensional. And although being forced to rely solely on Manning is not exactly a bad thing, it will be tough sledding against TEN’s 5th ranked pass-D (179 ypg). What I love about TEN is that they are just a good ol’ fashioned, kick-your-ass defensive team that does not appear to have a lot of flaws.
Does not “appear” to have flaws is the key part of the prior statement above however. While everything certainly points to TEN controlling this game via their shut-down D and monster ground attack....there are two things that are scaring me away from pulling the trigger on a TEN play: First, I am not convinced that TEN has faced an offense with as much talent or potential as IND’s offense. Say what you will about IND's struggles, they still have a lot of talent and potential. I scanned TEN's past games looking for a decent passing O that they've faced and all I could come up with was HOU and CIN. Not exactly a vote of confidence considering the sorry state of CIN and that the game versus HOU was back in week 3 (before they were running the ball well with Slaton).
The second thing that scares me away from a play on TEN is the "Manning Factor" in the 2nd half. Like I said in a previous post, I can totally see TEN controlling the game for about 3 quarters, spinning clock, sitting on a two score lead, doing the right things.....only to have it all evaporate in a matter of minutes.
While I am having a hard time with the side in this contest, I really do like the Over (surprise, surpsrise, right? lol). Anyway, I think there will be a little bit more offense in this one than people may think. The public appears to be pushing this number downward, so I am curious to see what the eventual floor value will be. I like anything south of 40 on this one (but will take 40, if necessary or depending on price).
What trends are there in regard to the divisional match-up between IND and TEN? I tend to put more stock in divisional stats and numbers. I'd be interested to see who they favor.
