Despite the things we've discussed about some of those games, I really do like that parlay. BOL!!!
AJ ~<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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Here are the Friday practice reports for GB and DET
Many thanks.
I'm going to hold off on GB. You're right, no sense forcing a play this early. A "no play" can be as good as a win in the right circumstance.
Another game thought caught my eye today is KC. Not sure if you put any stock in the Sagarin Rating System, but I was checking out the thread dedicated to it, and apparently KC is seeing about 10 points of value (if I deduced it correctly) over Oakland in a certain combined line with something called Elo. I saw that Jetplane and others weren't able to find any past ATS results from it so it may be nothing. But anyway, worth checking out if you get a minute.
Very disappointing, but good to know. I hadn't really looked into that game aside from seeing Sagarin give the play a ridiculous amount of value, so I appreciate the more in depth look. Can't really argue with those rush stats - I'll probably pass on that play as well.AJ & Primoz ~
(RE: KC vs. OAK)
sorry about the late response, I have been pretty sick. Regardless, the shoe rule applies when an away team must change their shoes to play on a different surface than their home field. The away team must also be favored by 3 or more points. In this case the play is in on the sorry lions at +3. Ill place them every week they apply; the play usually looks horrible, but ends up making me money almost every year. Good Luck guys.
JOC
AJ & Primoz ~
(RE: KC vs. OAK)
I am not too excited about this game. If I was forced to make a desicison I might lean KC due to the home field advantage, but there are certainly a lot better bets on the board.
First of all, I think this game will be very low scoring, therefore there's a chance for both teams to be in a position to win the game in the 4th quarter. Secondly, the thing that concerns me most is OAK's ability to run the ball. I would not be surprised to see OAK total over 175 yards of rushing in this game. Not only do they game plan a heavy does of the run, but they have plenty of fresh and talented bodies to carry the ball all game long.
OAK averaged 5.0 yards per carry versus DEN last week while KC only averaged about 3.8 yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, KC gave up 4.5 yards per carry to NE and OAK gave up 4.2 yards per carry to DEN.
In what appears to be a low scoring game, that edge in rushing stats for OAK is too big of a barrier for me to endorse a play on KC. DEN did a good job passig the ball against OAK (Cutler threw for 300 yards) and I am not convinced that KC will see the same amount of success in that area.
Week 2 Plays
2* PHI +7 105
2* TEN ML 102
2* GB OV 45.5 110
2* DEN OV 46 110
2* NE ML 100
1* NE OV 37 110
Season Record: 6~3......+4.60
--------------------------------
Play Ratings Record
3*...............1~0
2*...............1~1
1*...............4~2
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ALL..............6~3<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
Week 2 Plays
2* PHI +7 105
2* TEN ML 102
2* GB OV 45.5 110
2* DEN OV 46 110
2* NE ML 100
1* NE OV 37 110
Season Record: 6~3......+4.60
--------------------------------
Play Ratings Record
3*...............1~0
2*...............1~1
1*...............4~2
-------------------
ALL..............6~3<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->