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You still shouldn't handcuff running backs in fantasy.

When scanning through some of the age old creeds of the fantasy community I often find myself thinking, "We can do better." I get it. There are certain ideas we've held dear for years, such is true in many walks of life. It's easier to default to the standards of tradition than to accept the winds of change.
However, just as in any field of study, those of us in the fantasy community must be willing to challenge our assumptions when information and data demand it. One such analysis that needs an overhaul is how we think about the long-held concepts of the "handcuff."
For years, fantasy analysts recommended that you take an insurance policy on your top running backs by selecting their backup before you leave your fantasy draft.

There's an "it's just what you have to do" tone to it. But should it be such a naturally assumed requirement?
Prior to the 2015 season, I noted that recent examples of handcuffing just didn't support the idea as a useful strategy. After what was an apocalyptic year for the running back position where injuries flew in like locusts, many are wondering if the best policy is to insure their early running back picks by taking the starter's backup. On a surface level, yes, many running backs came in and produced in the wake of an established starter's injury. However, a fine look at some of the situations from last year still invites doubt.
 

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Running back handcuffs in 2015.

In last year's study, we referenced JJ Zachariason's work with running backs busts from the 2010 to 2014 season. In Zachariason's findings, nine of the 60 backs from the sample busted at least partially due to injury.
It didn't get much better for the running back position in 2015. Seven running backs went in the first round, according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP, and you can argue that Adrian Peterson was the only one of them not to bust last year. Peterson was the only one to finish inside the top-12 running backs by season's end. Jeremy Hill was the next highest at RB14 in standard leagues, but had only five RB1 weeks and eight where he scored outside the top-24.

C.J. Anderson and Eddie Lacy both finished outside the top-14 running backs, but neither missed significant time. Anderson struggled playing through a toe injury early in the season, which caused a split backfield with Ronnie Hillman before he led the charge down the stretch. Lacy was out of shape and just played poorly last season.
The last three all lost major time with injuries, as Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and Le'Veon Bell missed a combined 30 games (Bell lost two to suspension). All three not only speak to the fragility of the running back position but also provide us with examples to update our study from last year. Because the running back position was such a nightmare last year, we're going to expand the sample in 2015 beyond just top-10 overall picks to include the first 15 backs drafted last year. That brings three backs and their missed games into the equation, in LeSean McCoy (4), Justin Forsett (6) and Mark Ingram (4).

GMs indicates the number of games the starter missed. AVG FPs are the average 12-team standard fantasy points scored in games the starter did not play. Carry % is the percentage of the team's carries the running back handled in games the starter missed.
At first blush, it appears handcuffs paid off far bigger dividends in 2015 than in the previous five seasons. Five of the six primary backups saw at least 45 percent of the team's rush attempts in the games the starting running back missed. All six of the primary replacements averaged north of 10 fantasy points per game when the starter was out. Thomas Rawls, DeAngelo Williams, and Tim Hightower put up league-winning per game averages once they assumed the starting role.

The RB12 in points per game last season scored 10.9 fantasy points per contest (among backs who played at least 10 games). So, essentially you got RB1 value out of five of these six primary handcuffs when they started.
With that being said, in the majority of cases you still should not handcuff your running backs in your fantasy draft. Don't let the hindsight bias of 2015 cloud your judgment.

The biggest issue with handcuffing running backs is just how little we actually know about who will get playing time. We set up three criteria for assessing handcuff situations last year, those being talent, clarity, and standalone value. Clarity still appears to be the one we lack any real knowledge of.
Even though a ton of backup running backs mattered in fantasy football last year, for the most part, it wasn't any of the ones we expected. Of the six primary and six secondary running backs on the handcuff chart for 2015, only three were among the 61 running backs drafted in 12-team leagues according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP. Two of them need major caveats. Christine Michael was a thirteenth-round pick on average last year because he was theoretically in a competition to be Dallas' starting running back. He didn't become handcuff relevant until getting cut by the Cowboys and returning to Seattle after Thomas Rawls went down. C.J. Spiller, the least productive of any back on the chart, was a sixth-round pick on average, so far from a handcuff.

The only true example of a handcuff we saw coming was DeAngelo Williams with the Steelers, who went off the board in the 11th round on average, right in handcuff territory. We did have the extra benefit of knowing he would play the first two weeks with Le'Veon Bell suspended, which may have boosted his ADP up just a tad. However, Williams is the perfect example of a handcuff situation working out for fantasy owners, reminding us that it can happen. He was a skilled back with a pedigree and was the clear No. 2 in a high-powered offense.

Short-sighted fantasy managers might cite the Chiefs backfield as a situation where handcuffs worked out. However, neither Charcandrick West or Spencer Ware was on the radar at draft time last season. Knile Davis, on the other hand, was a 10th-round pick. That's a perfect example of the kind of whiff that often comes out of chasing potential handcuffs.
Additionally, even though West finished with a strong points-per-game average, he slumped down the stretch. He finished as a weekly RB1 just once from Week 11 on, and finished as a weekly RB3 or worse in every other game he played. West was eventually outplayed by and lost his high-value role to Spencer Ware.

All reports out of Kansas City this offseason hold that Ware took that job for good and is now the primary backup to Jamaal Charles. That's quietly another reminder of why burning two draft picks into one backfield isn't a great idea; you're now exposing more openings for the fragility of the running back position. Not only can a player lose their role for no reason of their own performance like West, they could suffer an injury like Thomas Rawls did during his absolute tear through the league. Being left holding the bag after one RB1 goes down is bad enough, exposing yourself to blowing two picks on essentially one player is a nightmare.
 

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When can you handcuff a running back?

When the three critical factors of talent, clarity, and standalone value come together in harmony, taking on your RB1's backup is suggested. Spencer Ware in Kansas City might be the best example of that. We know after watching him barrel through defenders with tremendous power that he's a good player. He's entrenched as the No. 2 behind Charles, and he might even have some standalone value as a potential red zone power back. If you're getting back into bed with Charles as an RB1, Ware might be the NFL's best handcuff right now.

Other than that, it's hard to find many other instances of all three factors coming together for RB1 handcuffs this year. Alfred Morris is a good player behind Ezekiel Elliott, but Darren McFadden is still there (for now) sapping away any clarity and neither projects for standalone value when Elliott is healthy. DeAngelo Williams was the NFL's premier handcuff, but his ADP ballooned to the fifth round after Bell's suspension made its way into the media. If you're taking a running back in the single-digit rounds he is not a handcuff. Period. Karlos Williams ate his way out of handcuff consideration behind LeSean McCoy leaving an unclear jumble behind the veteran back in Buffalo. There's a chance Christine Michael, James Starks, and Jerrick McKinnon cannibalize some value as standalone assets behind their starters. If you're drafting any backups that actually qualify as handcuffs, it's one of those three.

In truth, two of the more successful backup running backs down the stretch, Javorius Allen and Tim Hightower, gave us the best blueprint to handcuffing the position. The optimal strategy is to start handcuffing your top running backs during the stretch run, not in your August drafts.
In addition to not liking the idea of using a pick on what amounts to a hedge on an early-round selection, the most objectionable aspect of handcuffing is that you are unlikely to be able to hold a roster spot for them through the bye weeks.

In addition to injuries, the bye week gauntlet opens up the need for roster spots to take on depth to fill in during the weeks your starters are out. That's not to mention how unreasonable it is to hold on to a useless backup running back burning a spot on your bench during the first few waiver runs of the season. More often than not, those once-coveted handcuffs get dropped by antsy fantasy owners who need either depth or want to chase this year's Dion Lewis, Tyrod Taylor or Allen Hurns off waivers.
Rather than draft a backup running back in a potentially ambiguous situation, wait until the stretch run to start insuring your starting running backs.

Owners who read the No. 2 situations in Baltimore and New Orleans correctly benefitted from league-winning weeks by Allen and Hightower in the fantasy playoffs. They had to spend exactly zero draft capital to secure those beefy performances.
Create an insurance policy for your fantasy starters at the most volatile position when it matters most. Even in the most apocalyptic season for running backs imaginable, we were reminded the optimal "it matters most" time is late in the season through the waiver wire, not in August during your fantasy drafts. Handcuffs are an antiquated concept in fantasy football that exist in the community on borrowed time.
 

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Eli Manning leads 2016 Ride or Die fantasy squad.

Play enough fantasy football and you're bound to find guys that you like and want to have on your team by any means necessary. These are your Ride or Die guys. The players who are either going to lead you to fantasy success or sink the whole operation.
We here at NFL Fantasy are no different. Fantasy analysts ... they're just like us! We spend the time from February to July scouring pro and college game tape, pouring over endless statistical spreadsheets and taking the temperatures of our takes to seek out the players we're certain are going to be studs.

And now the time has come for me to grace you with my Ride or Die players for the 2016 fantasy football season. These are players (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR) that can be drafted in Round 5 or later in most re-drafts that will return top-15 value at their respective positions. Follow me on Instagram for season-long updates on how this group fares. Let's see if I live to regret this.
Nah.
Here we go.

Quarterback

Eli Manning, New York Giants: Few, if any, of us have been shy about promoting Manning's fantasy potential with another year in Ben McAdoo's offense coming. In fact, it's probably had a lot to do with the Giants signal-caller going from an original ADP in the double-digit rounds to coming off the board on average in the eighth round. Still, Manning remains a quality option for anyone who tends to wait a little longer to get a fantasy quarterback. He's landed in the top-15 in nine of the past 10 seasons -- including four top 10 finishes.
If that's not enough, there's more excitement about the Giants pass-catchers in 2016 than has been felt in a long time. Expectations are high for rookie Sterling Shepard. Will Tye has the chance to be a deep sleeper tight end while Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings (121 combined targets in 2015) offer outlets from the backfield.
Oh yeah ... and there's that Beckham character, too.
Other candidates: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston


Running backs

Dion Lewis, New England Patriots: The Man Who Slayed Belitricks is more than deserving of a spot on this roster. Through the seven games he played last season, Lewis was averaging 12 fantasy points per game -- better than Lamar Miller, David Johnson and Danny Woodhead. It's always dangerous to try and extrapolate numbers like that over the course of a 16-game season ... but never let it be said that I don't live dangerously. At Lewis' pace from last season, he would have scored 192 total points, which would have been good for fourth. That's not PPR, folks. That's standard scoring. Need proof of how important Lewis will be to the Patriots offense this year? They've made the decision to hold him on the PUP list in an effort to preserve him for the regular season despite a lack of setbacks in his recovery from knee surgery. With a head coach that values players who are "multiple", Lewis' dynamic ability to make plays as a runner and receiver means he can regain last season's 55 percent share of the snaps.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals: I can hear it now ... "Marcas, Gio's in a committee and had just two touchdowns last season. How can you be so high on him?" Well, it's because he's a good football player. It's also because Bernard provides for the Bengals offense the same type of options that Dion Lewis does for the Patriots. Last season, Bernard topped 1,200 scrimmage yards for the second time in his three NFL campaigns and far outperformed Jeremy Hill just on the eye test alone.

But to more directly answer those questions -- the Bengals have a committee approach in their backfield (like most of the NFL) but this is arguably the most well-defined committee in the league. Even with Hue Jackson taking his act to Cleveland, Bernard is still expected to be the chain mover while Hill works as the hammer. Keep in mind that touchdowns are a fickle beast ... and that works both ways. Bernard totaled 15 scores in his first two seasons before posting just two last year. Conversely, Hill wasn't exactly spectacular in the red zone last season averaging just 2.1 yards per carry (compared to Bernard's 4.7 YPC average). Here's where you hope talent and offensive fit win out.

Wide receivers

Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers: I wrote at some length about Cobb's 2016 potential in my offseason Bust-a-Move series. Last season he was considered a disappointment in comparison to his breakout 2014 campaign. When Jordy Nelson went down with an injury, the expectation was that Cobb would slide up to the WR1 spot and gobble up most of that vacant production.

*Charlie Murphy voice* Wrong. Wrong.
We all learned a valuable lesson about the need to have a bona fide No. 1 receiver who can attract attention from defenses and set everyone else up to prosper. If anything, 2015 gave us a new appreciation for Jordy Nelson. But that's not to suggest that Cobb isn't an extremely talented player. His 2014 campaign was not a fluke and if the Packers offense is anywhere near as potent as most expect this season, another 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns is not an impossibility.

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals: The path to being a top-15 fantasy receiver generally includes being part of an efficient, up-tempo offense with a quarterback who can consistently get the rock to his playmaking receivers. Sure, it sounds simple. Then again, we keep trying to make Jeremy Maclin a WR1. Okay, maybe that's not 100 percent fair.

Regardless, Floyd won't have any of those obstacles down in the desert. The Cardinals ran the fifth-most plays in the league last year and were tied for sixth in yards per play. Top it off with Carson Palmer who finished third in passer rating last year, and all of the requisite elements are there. But let's not forget Floyd himself who's been vying for WR1 honors on this roster for the past couple of seasons.

Beginning the year with a finger injury put him at a disadvantage but from Week 10 until the end of the season, he led the team with 530 receiving yards. He also proved his big play potential by averaging 12.3 air yards per reception (fifth-best in the NFL last season) and 21.3 air yards per target (third-best). With a full, healthy season there could be big things in the offing for Floyd.
 

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Wait for values to come to you: Fabiano's mock auction.

Another day, another mock draft. This one was an auction, which is less popular than serpentine drafts over most of the fantasy sports landscape but still a lot of fun nonetheless.
If you're a veteran auction manger or you're looking for a new challenge, the best advice I can offer is to listen to the old hair metal band White Lion ... and "Wait."

Let the rest of the owners in your draft run through their cash like Montgomery Brewster in the underrated flick "Brewster's Millions," because I promise that you'll be able to land ridiculous bargains in the latter portion of the auction.
Of course, you should also have a list of players you're willing to spend your auction dollars on and make a run at those players during the first half of the draft.
Alright, here's how this squad ended up and a few notes on how I compiled it pick by pick. Enjoy.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings ($41): I wanted to spend a good portion of the budget on at least one elite running back, but I didn't want to spend more than $50-plus dollars if at all possible. Peterson might be 31, but he's a special athlete who doesn't fall under the same negative trends of past runners at his age. It's difficult to envision a scenario where A.P. isn't a top-10 choice.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($35): I engaged in a huge bidding war on Landry, which is the reason for his higher-than-normal price. After missing out on a few other wide receivers I wanted (and having plenty of money to spend as a result), I had no problem spending on the talented wideout from Miami. He's a good bet to haul in 90-plus passes from Ryan Tannehill under new coach Adam Gase.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons ($30): I am not a huge fan of Freeman as a No. 1 fantasy runner, but I couldn't let him come off the board for less than $30. When I pushed his value to that mark, however, the bidding stopped and I wound up with him as a No. 2 back (ESPN's Mike Clay is laughing right now, I guarantee it). Regardless, I don't mind Freeman as the second back on this roster.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills ($26): Watkins is a favorite of mine among wideouts, alongside T.Y. Hilton (who I missed out on, like an idiot). I like the value here, because I can see the Clemson product emerging into a top-10 fantasy player at his position this season. Over the final weeks of the 2015 campaign, there were few fantasy receivers in the league who were better than Watkins.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions ($14): Marvin Jones is getting a lot of hype, and it's warranted when you consider his price and ADP. Still, I like Tate to lead the Lions in targets, catches and receiving yards with Calvin Johnson out of the mix. When you look at the numbers he put up without Megatron over the last two seasons, well, there's room for optimism when it comes to the Golden Domer.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans ($12): Since I landed Peterson and Freeman earlier in the drafts, I was able to sit back and wait on the third, fourth and fifth runners for this roster. While Murray seems destined to see some sort of shared workload with Derrick Henry, I still see him as the team's lead back. If their "exotic smashmouth" attack works, Murray will push for RB2 value.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints ($9): See folks, you can wait on a quarterback in an auction just the same as a standard snake draft. There was a lot of value to be had at the position, and Brees was one of them for a bargain $9. While he is a little long in the tooth, older signal-callers don't suffer the same statistical fate as most aging running backs. Drew should put up a solid season.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars ($4) Yeldon lost a lot of his luster when the Jaguars went out and signed Chris Ivory during the offseason, but I landed him for a mere four bucks as this roster's No. 4 fantasy running back. I don't see him being a regular flex starter with Peterson, Freeman and Murray ahead of him on this team's depth chart, but Yeldon does make for a nice bye-week option.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($2): I'm not a huge fan of Matthews (he's just outside of my top-30 wide receivers), but I'll take him all day long for a pair of George Washingtons. While he was inconsistent overall, the Eagles wideout did put up some tremendous totals in the second half of last season. He's also scored a combined 16 times over his first two years in the league.

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($1): I lost out on Coby Fleener late in the auction, and with no real elite options left at the position, I figured I'd take a pair of young tight ends with upside and hope for the best. Ertz figures to be this roster's No. 1 option, and he's a good bet to see more than his share of opportunities under new head coach Doug Pederson. Think Travis Kelce numbers.

Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers ($1): I loved Green's addition in Pittsburgh when it happened, but all this talk of concussions, headaches and maybe even retirement has me bummed out. Still, he was worth a flier for one dollar with the hopes that the news sounds worse than it is. If he can get out on the gridiron, Green would be a virtual lock to catch 60-70 passes from Ben Roethlisberger.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers ($1): When you're in the late stage of an auction, you throw out bids and hope for the best. Jackson was a late, one dollar roll of the dice.

Jordan Howard, RB, Bears ($1): When I lost out of Tevin Coleman late in the auction, I threw out a $1 flier on Howard in what figures to be a fluid backfield situation in the Windy City.

Steven Hauschka, K, Seahawks ($1): Does any kicker not named Stephen Gostkowski warrant more than a $1 bid? I didn't think so. Thus, I landed Hauschka for one buck.

Panthers defense ($1): Much like kickers, you're not going to find many defenses that are worth more than a $1-$2 bid in auctions. The Panthers worked out fine here.
 

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Ex-NFL star Darren Sharper gets 18 years for drugging, raping women.

NEW ORLEANS -- Former NFL star Darren Sharper has been sentenced to 18 years in prison in a case where he was accused of drugging and raping as many as 16 women in four states.
Judge Jane Triche Milazzo sentenced Sharper on Thursday. He had pleaded guilty or no-contest to charges arising from the allegations of drugging and raping women in federal court in New Orleans, and state courts in Louisiana, Arizona, California and Nevada.
Prosecutors suggested a nine-year prison term for Sharper under a multijurisdictional plea deal, but Milazzo rejected it as too lenient in June. The sentence was 15 months short of the maximum. He was also fined $20,000.

Sharper pleaded guilty in federal court to three counts of distributing drugs with rape as the aim. He or his friend Brandon Licciardi, a former sheriff's deputy in neighboring St. Bernard Parish, put anti-anxiety drugs or sedatives into women's drinks so they could rape them, according to a 15-page statement signed as part of that plea.
Milazzo has scheduled sentencing Oct. 13 for Licciardi and a second New Orleans codefendant, Erik Nunez.
Charges around the country involve nine victims, but Milazzo has said in court that there may be as many as 16.

Like Sharper, Licciardi and Nunez admitted distributing drugs with the intent to commit rape. Their plea agreements say Licciardi has accepted a 17-year sentence, with 10 years for Nunez.
Sharper was named All-Pro six times and chosen for the Pro Bowl five times during a career that included stints with the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. He played in two Super Bowls, one with the Packers as a rookie and one with New Orleans Saints when they won in 2010.
He ended a 14-year career in 2011. He was working as a television analyst when women began telling police in several cities similar stories of blacking out while drinking with him and waking up groggy to find they had been sexually abused.
 

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