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[h=4]17) Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr (No. 18 QB), Latavius Murray (11) & Amari Cooper (12)[/h]Previous rank: No. 14

Carr (32 TDs, 13 INTs) has taken nicely to the lead role in an East Bay ensemble that now appears ready for prime time. Cooper figures to be prominent in that growth as he builds on a star-making rookie season. Oakland's strong O-line should help Murray repeat last year's 1,000-yard campaign.

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[h=4]18) Houston Texans: Brock Osweiler (No. 27 QB), Lamar Miller (9) & DeAndre Hopkins (6)[/h]Previous rank: No. 29

As I've said many times, it's hard to believe that in a world of seven billion people we can't find 32 humans to effectively play NFL QB. And it's within this reality we see a guy with seven career starts get rewarded with $18 million annually. Good news: The Texans won the 2015 AFC South with Brian Hoyer and a narcoleptic (?) Ryan Mallett under center. Better news: Osweiler likely understands his role a season after letting his team's defense do the heavy lifting. Best: He has a top-five game-breaking talent at WR in Hopkins and a do-it-all RB in Miller.

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[h=4]19) New England Patriots: Jimmy Garoppolo* (No. 28 QB), Dion Lewis (19) & Rob Gronkowski (2)[/h]Previous rank: No. 1

(*The Patriots would rank No. 3 with Tom Brady at QB)

While I think we can all agree there won't be a drop-off in handsomeness under center this September, time will tell if Jimmy G can hold the fort 'til Brady returns from his four-game suspension. The biggest factor for both QBs (and defenses trying to stop either) remains Gronk, a.k.a. The Best Tight End in NFL History. Until his injury, Lewis was a rare gem fetched from the figurative scrap heap (the place from which most of Bill Belichick's runners hail).

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[h=4]20) Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton (No. 20 QB), Jeremy Hill (18) & A.J. Green (7)[/h]Previous rank: No. 4

If your glass is half full, you think Dalton's thumb injury prevented him from getting off the postseason schneid. If your glass is half empty, the injury was a stay of execution for both Dalton and Marvin (0 for 7 in the playoffs) Lewis. Green's a top-five talent who thrives in spite of having a QB who isn't able to consistently take full advantage of the WR's downfield playmaking ability. Hill and Gio Bernard combine for a very good, versatile duo running behind a great O-line. But overall, don't discount the significance of former OC Hue Jackson now living upstate.

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[h=4]21) Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater (No. 24 QB), Adrian Peterson (1) & Stefon Diggs (28)[/h]Previous rank: No. 10

"All Day" is an all-timer ... but he's also fumbled away the two biggest games of his career ('15 wild card, '09 NFC championship). Teddy B and his glove should benefit from the return to a climate-controlled home field. (But shame on the Vikes -- and Lions -- for playing indoors. It's the NFC North!) Diggs is the biggest pass-catching late-round steal since Antonio Brown.

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[h=4]22) Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler (No. 16 QB), Jeremy Langford (31) & Alshon Jeffery (15)[/h]Previous rank: No. 19

In his 34th year on Planet Earth, Cutler is what he is: An outsized physical talent who has produced middling results. (But if Joe Flacco can put together a post-holidays miracle, why couldn't Cutty?) Langford looked good enough in limited action that the Bears didn't fret Forte's departure, but will his intentional offseason weight gain help or hurt? Jeffery is a gem who'll have more room to roam with redshirt freshman Kevin White distracting secondaries.

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[h=4]23) Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff (No. 29 QB), Todd Gurley (2) & Tavon Austin (30)[/h]Previous rank: No. 18

Whether or not Goff is the answer is TBD, but even before his arrival, the Rams were feeling sunnier about their offense (and not just 'cause of the move from indoors to SoCal). Gurley is a generational talent who ran away from professional football tacklers as easily as he did SEC Ds. Two drafts after Les Snead won the Austin sweepstakes, the lightning-fast mite finally paid dividends beyond returning punts (473 yards receiving, 434 yards rushing and nine touchdowns in 2015).

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[h=4]24) Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins (No. 15 QB), Matt Jones (32) & Jordan Reed (24)[/h]Previous rank: No. 28

Cynics won't give full credit to Cousins 'til he does it against better competition -- he didn't beat a team that ended up with a winning record last year -- but he deserves kudos for cutting down on some of the reckless throws he might've attempted in the past. Jones looked promising in limited exposure as a rookie, but the Washington brass is now all-in on the Florida product as a three-down back. That's fine ... so long as he's fixed the fumbling issue (that seems to afflict a lot of first-year guys these days). Whether he's a WR or TE, Reed is the best option in a versatile -- but injury-prone -- group of pass catchers. (Matter of fact, of all the individual rankings I've provided in this piece, Reed seems among the most likely to leave me with egg on my face for wildly underrating him.)

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[h=4]25) Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill (No. 23 QB), Jay Ajayi (28) & Jarvis Landry (23)[/h]Previous rank: No. 16

OK, this absolutely, positively has to be the season Tannehill takes it to another level. And if he doesn't, it's time for the Dolphins to move on. (Sorry if you're experiencing déjà vu after reading that last sentence.) Landry has been prolific (his 194 catches are the most ever in a WR's first two seasons), but his yards-per-catch figure is significantly lower than those of most of the NFL's high-end receivers. (Hence the high hopes for DeVante Parker in his second year.) Ajayi showed hints in '15 of being ready to take over as the feature back ... but the Dolphins don't seem convinced, as the additions of Kenyan Drake and Arian Foster (who Adam Gase says will continue getting first-team reps in August) suggest.

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26) San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert (No. 31 QB), Carlos Hyde (12) & Torrey Smith (27)

Previous rank: No. 31

It's old news at this point, but it's still worth remembering how far Colin Kaepernick has fallen since coming within one completed pass of winning a Super Bowl just four seasons ago. Now, it looks like it'll take a flawless August to vault former punchline Gabbert, who was serviceable in a half-season's work in 2015. Assuming he can stay healthy, Hyde is a big, talented, hit-the-hole-at-60-mph runner who'll get tons of chances in Chip Kelly's offense. Smith can stretch the field but is miscast as the No. 1 WR of a crummy receiving corps.

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[h=4]27) Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford (No. 21 QB), Ameer Abdullah (30) & Golden Tate (25)[/h]Previous rank: No. 21

The absence of Megatron is rightly the big story, but for what it's worth, Stafford put up a more-than-respectable 2015 (although, for a guy who completed over 67 percent of his throws, he still made some woeful decisions along the way). He won't have Calvin Johnson going forward, but at least he'll have a better line in front of him. Tate's one of the best yards-after-catch guys in the league -- but now will need Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones to help open the field up. If Abdullah and his wonky shoulder aren't ready to roll, Theo Riddick (who might be better, anyway) is ready to pick up the slack.

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[h=4]28) Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota (No. 25 QB), DeMarco Murray (22) & Delanie Walker (26)[/h]Previous rank: No. 32

When I first heard the phrase "Exotic Smashmouth," I thought the '90s pop band might've updated "All Star" with a sitar. As it is, Mike Mularkey is zigging while most of the pass-happy NFL zags (as Bucky Brooks thoroughly details here). With Murray running behind a sizable O-line, the pieces seem to be in place to run a physical, downhill attack. And while Walker is an underrated producer at his position, look for gigantic talent/person Dorial Green-Beckham to become Mariota's favorite target in the QB/WR tandem's second season together.

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[h=4]29) Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco (No. 19 QB), Justin Forsett (27) & Steve Smith Sr. (31)[/h]Previous rank: No. 23

Steve Smith Sr. deserves a gold jacket one day, but in the meantime, serving as an NFL team's top receiver at 37 and returning from a repaired Achilles seems ... hopeful. Then again, with Ben Watson, Crockett Gillmore, Maxx Williams and Dennis Pitta, the Ravens are as loaded at TE as anybody this side of Foxborough. Previously undrafted Central Florida WR Kamar Aiken will again get the chance to do what was expected of the 2015 first-round WR from Central Florida, Breshad Perriman. We know Flacco has a knack for playing his best in the postseason and/or against archrival Pittsburgh, but consistency has eluded him throughout his eight years in the league. Forsett is a nice story, but he will struggle to hold off younger challengers for carries this year.

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[h=4]30) Philadelphia Eagles: Sam Bradford (No. 26 QB), Ryan Mathews (23) & Jordan Matthews (29)[/h]Previous rank: No. 22

As much as some analysts attempt to reduce football to a math equation, the game is still played by human beings. And I simply can't imagine things going well so long as Bradford is under center (while No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz watches from the sidelines). Bradford has proven to be fragile both physically and emotionally, so it seems unlikely that he's going to be a rock-solid field general in his seventh season with his replacement waiting in the wings. Speaking of injuries, Mathews has had a lot of 'em. But last year, he did look very good when on the field. The Matthews with two Ts in his surname has a knack for catching TDs, but he needs help from Nelson Agholor this year.

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[h=4]31) Denver Broncos: Mark Sanchez (No. 30 QB), C.J. Anderson (29) & Demaryius Thomas (16)[/h]Previous rank: No. 17

It's exceedingly easy to make buttfumble jokes (which is why I do it often), but as Chris Harris Jr. discussed during a recent visit to DDFP, the Broncos' recipe for success asks for the QB to hold the spice and make vanilla contributions only. Thomas' late-2015 case of the dropsies was troubling, but it can perhaps be attributed to Peyton's wobbly offerings. He needs to be the difference maker in Denver's offense going forward. Joe Morris clone C.J. Anderson is fine, but rookie Devontae Booker will be the feature back by midseason.

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[h=4]32) Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III (No. 32 QB), Duke Johnson (24) & Gary Barnidge (32)[/h]Previous rank: No. 30

I know Hue Jackson worked wonders with Dalton & Co. in SW Ohio, but I'm skeptical the former Bengals OC can transform an organization as dysfunctional as the one at the other end of the state -- especially when two of his most prominent early moves were spending a third-round pick on largely unheralded Cody Kessler and signing RGIII after expressing outsized enthusiasm for the one-time prodigy. Those instances of "Hue-bris" notwithstanding, Jackson has invigorated other moribund offenses via the run game, which should mean good things for Johnson, a more versatile option than Isaiah Crowell. Barnidge came out of nowhere to post a 1,000-yard, nine-touchdown season, but he figures to see fewer targets with the presumed emergence of '16 first-rounder Corey Coleman and the Week 5 return of Josh Gordon (who, based on his limited, mediocre 2014, shouldn't be counted upon to repeat his magical 2013 season).

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12 QBs Who Can Win Their First Ring.

Cam Newton, Carson Palmer among QBs who can win first ring.

Conventional wisdom holds that all 32 teams are still in it during training camp. But the reality is, four quarterbacks have combined to win 10 of the last 15 Super Bowls.
Yes, Tom Brady (Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX and XLIX), Ben Roethlisberger (Super Bowls XL and XLIII), Peyton Manning (Super Bowls XLI and 50) and Eli Manning (Super Bowls XLII and XLVI) have accounted for an astounding number of the rings won in recent memory. Consider also that four of the last five Super Bowls have featured quarterbacks who have appeared in the game before.

All of this is to say that the faces under center on Super Sunday have, for the most part, been awfully familiar lately. But that doesn't mean a first-timer can't find his way to glory come February.
Below you'll find 12 quarterbacks who have never won it all ranked according to their chances of capturing their first ring in Super Bowl LI, listed in reverse order. The list includes a mix of quarterbacks who can elevate a team to the top on their own and QBs who need a strong team around them to succeed -- though, of course, winning in the NFL always requires both individual and collective contributions.

A note about the Denver Broncos: You won't find Mark Sanchez listed here, even though he is currently in line to start for the defending champs. This is not a reflection of my feelings on the Broncos, who should not be counted out as potential Super Bowl contenders, given that they have a chance to repeat last season's winning formula of great defense + mediocre-to-poor quarterback play. Rather, Sanchez is not listed here because I am not confident Sanchez will start all 16 games, and I'm not ready to put Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch in a list of potential title-winning QBs.
 

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12) Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions.

This selection might spark a few snickers, but Stafford does have significant ability. The first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft ranks third in the NFL in total passing yardage (23,174 yards) and completions (1,988) over the past five seasons. He's the Lions' all-time record holder in career passing yards (25,976) and passing touchdowns (163). He boasts a very strong arm and good mobility; he just needs to put everything together. Notably, he seemed to respond to Jim Bob Cooter when the coach was elevated to coordinator midway through last season, sparking a 6-2 second-half run for Detroit. That said, I have plenty of doubts about the rest of the Lions' roster, especially with Calvin Johnson having retired, which is why Stafford ranks here.

11) Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

Carr is an athlete who is also very football smart, and he can make all the throws you need to win. I watched Carr during my visit to the Raiders this week, and as I told him after practice, I saw him doing a better job looking off defenders and making great sight adjustments. He is reminiscent, in terms of style and the way he moves and the quickness of his release, of Drew Brees. Oakland has assembled a good team around Carr, and there is no doubt in my mind he'll be a factor in the very near future. That said, I think people might be getting on board with the Raiders a year early, as they tend to do with teams like this. Oakland will be good, and the Raiders might make a decent playoff push, but 2017 will be their year.

10) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Unrivaled at his position in terms of competitiveness, Rivers put up good numbers in 2015 (4,792 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns) despite being stuck on a poor team. He's racked up 60 touchdown passes over the past two seasons combined, while his 145 passing touchdowns over the past five seasons ranks as the fourth-most in the NFL. Over the last 10 years, he's passed for 41,299 yards -- second only to Drew Brees in that span. He's 14th overall in passing yards in NFL history and 11th in passing touchdowns. Rivers is extremely underrated, but if you put good players around him, he will win. Of course, the question marks on San Diego's roster leave him stuck in this portion of the list.
 

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9) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons.

Ryan has the ability to win a Super Bowl -- he has the arm strength, the accuracy, the tools you need. The third overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft is the most prolific passer in Falcons history, possessing the franchise records in career yards (32,757), passing touchdowns (202) and completions (2,915). He just never has had a complete team around him. Last season was a mixed bag for Ryan, who posted the third-best completion percentage (66.3) and yardage total (4,591) of his career, along with his second-lowest touchdown total (21) and third-worst passer rating (89.0). As always with Ryan, the key is the cast around him, and while Atlanta did add a solid No. 2 receiver in Mohamed Sanu, I have concerns about the defense's ability to rush the passer.

8) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

I think you can throw out Luck's 2015 season, which was kind of a disaster, as a casualty of the injuries that dogged him for most of the year. The fact remains that he took Indianapolis to the playoffs in each of his first three professional years, advancing a level each time out. He has everything you need for success -- athletic ability, speed, arm strength, accuracy and leadership qualities. Yes, he's been saddled by a lack of roster support throughout his Colts tenure, but even after 2015, I have faith in Luck's power to elevate a lesser team through his play.

7) Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans.

Yes, Osweiler did technically win a Super Bowl with the Broncos, but because he didn't actually play in the game, he counts here. In his first professional season as the presumptive starter for an NFL team entering Week 1, Osweiler cannot be worse than what the Texans trotted out at quarterback last season, when four different starters combined for a truly dismal showing -- and, in fact, he could be much better. He's a risk with good measurables, the kind of guy who will either make you look incredibly smart or incredibly dumb as a GM. In limited action with the Broncos last season, Osweiler put up passable -- if unspectacular -- numbers, but he showed flashes. (The kind of flashes that obviously helped land him the contract he signed with Houston this offseason.) As in Denver, Osweiler's defense should be outstanding, provided J.J. Watt recovers from back surgery without incident. If Osweiler really turns into something, I could see him putting the Texans over the threshold.

6) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Heading into 2015, Romo would have been at the top of this list, coming off a 12-4 campaign marked by quarterback excellence (including a league-best passer rating of 113.2). Of course, the wheels proceeded to fall off last season, with Romo missing all but four of Dallas' games thanks to a twice-injured collarbone. Consequently, the Cowboys went 4-12. While he's a love-him-or-hate-him type among fans, a fully healthy Romo has the arm strength, accuracy and overall ability to win big in 2016. Of course, the window is closing fast for the 36-year-old -- so he'll have to take full advantage of Dez Bryant's return to health and the presence of a stud rookie back in Ezekiel Elliott.
 

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5) Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings.

The third-year pro has athletic ability and can execute the script to a T. Minnesota depends more on its top-notch running game and defense than it does on elite quarterback play, but both are strong enough to give Bridgewater, who does a good job moving the chains, a healthy chance of capturing a ring in February. At worst, Bridgewater won't get in the way of the Vikings' twin engines -- at best, he can develop a rapport with first-round pick Laquon Treadwell and provide Minnesota with a significant boost.

4) Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Smith isn't a buzzy name, but he has won in Kansas City, recording a 30-16 record and two playoff appearances in three seasons. He is very athletic and can run, and he plays within the system. Smith might not be able to elevate a terrible team to contention, as we saw during his earlier years in San Francisco, but with the right players around him, he can rack up the Ws. After all, if Jeremy Maclin had been healthy enough to contribute fully, Smith might have knocked off the Patriots in the Divisional Round last season. If the Chiefs are right, they should be a force on defense, and it's entirely conceivable that Smith could reach new postseason heights.

3) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton doesn't get enough credit. All he does is take the Bengals to the playoffs. Last season, he broke out with career numbers -- 66.1 percent completion rate, 25:7 TD-to-INT ratio and a passer rating of 106.2 in 13 games -- and was poised to prove his doubters wrong. Unfortunately, a fractured thumb kept him from having a chance to add a little weight to the win column in his 0-4 postseason record. But that wasn't his fault. I know people want to see if he can get a team over the hump, but his production in 2015 was definitely Super Bowl-caliber. I think he has a good chance to get the Bengals to the playoffs a sixth consecutive time -- but this time, we'll see the elite version of Dalton carry Cincinnati forward in January.

2) Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

The first overall pick in the 2003 NFL Draft is finally making good on the promise he showed in Cincinnati and Oakland. He is coming off an outstanding season that ended in the ignominious loss to the Panthers in the NFC title game. That ugly performance -- 23 of 40 for 235 yards and one touchdown with four picks, two fumbles lost and a passer rating of 43.2 -- makes his short postseason résumé look deceptively bad. However, I suspect he was not 100 percent for that game, and I still trust the veteran completely in the playoffs. He's not fleet of foot, but he's very smart and knows where and when to throw the ball. Palmer is a very hard worker with traits that translate to success, a good guy who also is playing with one of the best teams he's had in his career.

1) Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Newton took a huge leap forward in his career-long upward trajectory last season, serving as the do-it-all offensive dynamo behind Carolina's 15-1 record and trip to Super Bowl 50. If he were younger and less experienced, or if he didn't have outstanding work habits, I might be worried about a regression in 2016, but I fully expect the reigning NFL MVP to get even better in Year 6. He needs to improve his ability to throw quick slants and checkdowns and to complete more passes, but he'll be working with a better receiving corps (with Kelvin Benjamin healthy again) and has an excellent chance to win Super Bowl LI.
 

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