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[Greenbacks]

Running back 2016 fantasy projections for all 32 teams.

The running back position has become a bit like the "Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice" of the fantasy football world. We used to love the principle characters, but now we're just sort of disappointed and left shaking our heads.
That was never more evident than last season when there were more injured runners and busts at the position than you could fit into the bat cave.

The stink at the position was overwhelming, whether it was Le'Veon Bell or Jamaal Charles or Arian Foster or Jeremy Hill or ... you get the picture. And that stink has lasted throughout the offseason and will linger into 2016 drafts. With that said, it's more important than ever to have the 411 on all the league's backfields.

To do that, it's smart to research which runners are the best to target based on their projected totals, the offenses the play in, and the past tendencies and philosophies of their coaches and coordinators. Luckily for you, I have all the knowledge you'll need on those topics for you to enter your draft with confidence.

Below is a list of all 32 teams, including projections for the running back(s) atop their current depth chart.

 

[Greenbacks]

Arizona Cardinals

David Johnson:
Rush yds: 1,101
Rush TDs: 10
Receptions: 49
Rec yds: 521
Rec TDs: 3
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 234.2

The Cardinals ran the football 43.4 percent of the time last season, with Chris Johnson (196 carries) and David Johnson (125 carries) at the top of the backfield food chain. David averaged 21 touches and 19.2 fantasy points per game over the last five weeks after Chris went down with a broken leg. Fantasy fans should expect that sort of workload this season from the talented breakout candidate, who is worth a first-round choice despite his short NFL resume. ... In coach Bruce Arians' last eight years as either a head coach or offensive coordinator (OC), he's had a top-20 fantasy runner six times. The two best finishes were David Johnson (seventh, 2015) and Rashard Mendenhall (13th, 2010).

 

[Greenbacks]

Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman:
Rush yds: 997
Rush TDs: 7
Receptions: 67
Rec yds: 601
Rec TDs: 3
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 213.8

The Falcons had a 39.1 rush percentage under the watch of coordinator Kyle Shanahan last season. Still, Devonta Freeman broke out with over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and a combined 14 touchdowns. That included a four-game stretch where he had nine touchdowns and averaged a ridiculous 1.13 fantasy points per touch. Freeman averaged 0.52 points per touch in his other 11 games. He also saw the football on 63 percent of the team's rushes, but recent reports suggest Tevin Coleman could see more work this season. ... In his last seven seasons as an OC Shanahan has had three different runners (Freeman - 2015, Alfred Morris - 2012, Steve Slaton - 2008) finish better than 15th in fantasy points.

 

[Greenbacks]

Baltimore Ravens

Justin Forsett:
Rush yds: 815
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 47
Rec yds: 249
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 0
Fantasy points: 142.4

The Ravens ran the football just 35.4 percent of the time last season. It's the second season in a row that a Marc Trestman offense ran the rock at such a low percentage, but a big part of the reason for last season's totals was the loss of Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett to injuries. On a positive note, Trestman has had three top-10 fantasy running backs in his last five seasons as a coordinator. That includes Matt Forte (2013, 2014) and Charlie Garner (2002). ... Forsett averaged 18.2 touches per game in his 10 starts and was on pace to finish with 1,025 rushing yards. However, he will have to hold off both Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen to remain Baltimore's featured back.

 

[Greenbacks]

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy:
Rush yds: 1,098
Rush TDs: 7
Receptions: 43
Rec yds: 369
Rec TDs: 3
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 202.7

The Bills recorded a league-high 50.1 run percentage last season under offensive coordinator Greg Roman. His last offense in San Francisco in 2014 had a run percentage of 46.6, which ranked seventh in the NFL. In his previous three seasons, Roman's offenses ran the football no less than 50.2 percent of the time including a league-high 52.5 percent in 2013. ... During his time with the New York Jets, coach Rex Ryan's offenses ranked sixth or higher in rush percentage five different times. ... LeSean McCoy would have projected to finish last season with 271 rushes had he not missed four games. He would have also finished as a top-five fantasy runner based on his pace stats.

 

[Greenbacks]

Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Stewart:
Rush yds: 1,028
Rush TDs: 7
Receptions: 22
Rec yds: 167
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 165.5

The Panthers had a 49.6 rush percentage last season, which ranked second in the league. Despite missing three games, Jonathan Stewart led the team in carries (242) but failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark. In Mike Shula's seven years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, just one of his running backs (Warrick Dunn, 1998) reached 1,000 rushing yards. In his defense, however, he had Dunn and Mike Alstott splitting carries in three of those seasons with the Buccaneers and Stewart would have hit the mark had he not missed three games in 2015. ... Quarterback Cam Newton has averaged 115 rush attempts per season since 2013.

 

[Greenbacks]

Chicago Bears

Jeremy Langford:
Rush yds: 789
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 27
Rec yds: 259
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 142.8

The Bears ranked seventh in rushing percentage (45.6) last season, but will new offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains change that in 2016? In his two seasons as the OC for the Tennessee Titans, his offenses averaged 420 rush attempts (the Bears had 468 rush attempts in 2015). Chris Johnson accounted for 66 percent of those carries in Loggains' previous offenses, so he hasn't been adverse to using a featured back. ... John Fox has been an NFL head coach for 14 of the last 15 years. During that time, he's had three running backs average 19 or more carries per game. What's more, most of the runners in his offense have averaged 15 or fewer rush attempts. That could signal a possible committee scenario with Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey and Jordan Howard.

 

[Greenbacks]

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill:
Rush yds: 959
Rush TDs: 9
Receptions: 19
Rec yds: 183
Rec TDs: 0
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 166.2

Giovani Bernard:
Rush yds: 601
Rush TDs: 4
Receptions: 52
Rec yds: 461
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 140.2

The Bengals hired former quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese to replace Hue Jackson, but he's never been an offensive coordinator in the pros. It's the third time since 2011 that the Bengals will have a new OC to start the season. ... Jeremy Hill led the team in backfield touches (238), but Giovani Bernard wasn't that far behind with 203. That includes 49 catches on 66 targets. ... In the nine games where Hill saw 15 or more carries, he averaged a ho-hum 67 rushing yards, though he did score six times. Overall, Hill averaged 14 carries per contest. ... Bernard carried the football 15 or more times just twice and averaged a modest 10 rush attempts per game in this backfield committee.

 

[Greenbacks]

Cleveland Browns

Duke Johnson:
Rush yds: 623
Rush TDs: 4
Receptions: 65
Rec yds: 478
Rec TDs: 3
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 150.1

Isaiah Crowell:
Rush yds: 713
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 14
Rec yds: 127
Rec TDs: 0
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 110.0

Hue Jackson ran the football 50.1 and 46.5 percent of the time in his last two seasons as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. In his six seasons as either a head coach or coordinator, Jackson has produced four top-15 running backs and three who finished in the top 10. That includes Darren McFadden (sixth, 2010), Michael Bush (ninth, 2011) and Hill (10th, 2014). Furthermore, Jackson's top fantasy back hasn't finished worse than 14th (Hill, 2015) since 2007. That bodes well for the prospects of Duke Johnson, who figures to lead the Browns in backfield touches. ... Isaiah Crowell will also be in the mix in what could be a straight committee, but Johnson is the back to draft.

 

[Greenbacks]

Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott:
Rush yds: 1,294
Rush TDs: 10
Receptions: 37
Rec yds: 383
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 233.7

The Cowboys ran the football 42.1 percent of the time in what was a lost 2015 campaign. The number will rise with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott, who should be considered a massive breakout candidate in fantasy leagues. ... Over the last 32 games, the running back who led the Cowboys in carries has averaged better than 14 fantasy points per game. That includes DeMarco Murray (16 games, 18.4 PPG), Darren McFadden (11 games, 11.5 PPG) and Joseph Randle (five games, 12.3 PPG). ... In the 11 games McFadden started last season, he averaged 4.75 yards per attempt. In his final three seasons with the Raiders, he averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. That's the power of the Dallas line.

 

[Greenbacks]

Denver Broncos

C.J. Anderson:
Rush yds: 1,036
Rush TDs: 7
Receptions: 33
Rec yds: 205
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 174.1

Denver ran the football 38.9 percent of the time last season under offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, who also served as the OC in Houston from 2010-2013. ... In his last 13 seasons as either a head coach or OC, Gary Kubiak produced eight top-12 fantasy runners. That could have been nine had Arian Foster not been injured in 2013. ... Ronnie Hillman led the Broncos in carries last season with 207, but C.J. Anderson is slated to see an increase in touches after inking an $18 million contract. ... After a slow start, Anderson averaged just under 10 fantasy points per game in his last nine contests of 2015. In seven of those games, he carried the football 15 or fewer times.

 

[Greenbacks]

Detroit Lions

Ameer Abdullah:
Rush yds: 835
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 28
Rec yds: 272
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 142.7

Theo Riddick:
Rush yds: 225
Rush TDs: 2
Receptions: 69
Rec yds: 683
Rec TDs: 4
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 124.8

Ameer Abdullah looks like the favorite to lead the Lions in backfield touches this season, but this team used a committee in 2015. In the nine games Abdullah played under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, he averaged 10 touches and 50 scrimmage yards. Theo Riddick averaged nine touches and 52 yards in those same nine contests. The leader in average yards out of the backfield during that time was Joique Bell (nine touches, 56 yards), who is no longer on the roster. ... Abdullah is coming off a surgical procedure on his shoulder, but he's expected to be fine for the start of the regular season. ... Riddick was tied for the league lead in catches (80) among backs last season.

 

[Greenbacks]

Green Bay Packers

Eddie Lacy:
Rush yds: 1,064
Rush TDs: 8
Receptions: 28
Rec yds: 274
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 187.8

The Packers ran the football 41.3 percent of the time and finished 12th in rushing offense last season, but neither Eddie Lacy (187 carries) or James Starks (148 carries) finished in the top 20 in fantasy points among running backs. ... Lacy's totals in carries, rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards all declined compared to the averages from his first two NFL campaigns. Much of this was attributed to his weight gain, which he has since corrected. In his first two seasons, Lacy averaged 265 rush attempts, 1,500 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns. ... Starks' 148 carries were the most he's had in a single season. His previous average was 82 (2012-2014).

 

[Greenbacks]

Houston Texans

Lamar Miller:
Rush yds: 1,201
Rush TDs: 9
Receptions: 38
Rec yds: 347
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 216.8

In George Godsey's first season as the team's offensive coordinator, the Texans ran the football 41.9 percent of the time but ranked fifth in rush attempts (29.5 per game). ... In four games, Arian Foster averaged 20 touches per game including six receptions. In the games he was absent, Alfred Blue averaged 14 carries per contest including four with 20-plus. These totals bode well for Lamar Miller, who should be seen as a true featured back with a per game touch projection between 18 and 22. ... In 16 career games where he's carried the football 15 or more times, Miller has averaged a solid 80.7 rushing yards. Over 16 games, that would project to almost 1,300 yards on the ground.

 

[Greenbacks]

Indianapolis Colts

Frank Gore:
Rush yds: 891
Rush TDs: 6
Receptions: 23
Rec yds: 176
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 142.7

The Colts rushed the football just 37.6 percent of the time last season. In eight games under the watch of offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, the team averaged 119.1 yards on the ground per game. ... There was little fantasy success for Frank Gore, who put up an average of 18 carries for 56 yards in those contests. He was also held without a rushing touchdown and found the end zone once in Chud's nine games. ... Overall, Chudzinski has had just one running back (Jamal Lewis, 2007) finish higher than 25th in fantasy points during his time as either a head coach or OC between Cleveland and Carolina. Furthermore, the average finish of the other top fantasy backs during that time was 27th.

 

[Greenbacks]

Jacksonville Jaguars

T.J. Yeldon:
Rush yds: 702
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 41
Rec yds: 311
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 135.3

Chris Ivory:
Rush yds: 620
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 15
Rec yds: 134
Rec TDs: 0
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 103.4

The Jaguars didn't run the football a whole lot last season. In fact, the Lions (34.4) were the lone team with a lower run percentage than Jacksonville. ... T.J. Yeldon was the top fantasy runner on the roster, but he finished 26th at the position. ... In his last eight seasons as an offensive coordinator, Greg Olson has produced just two top-15 fantasy backs (Steven Jackson - 2006, 2007). ... The addition of Chris Ivory does bode well for a more balanced offensive attack in 2016, but neither he nor Yeldon project to see enough touches one a consistent basis to be considered more than a third or fourth fantasy runner.

 

[Greenbacks]

Kansas City Chiefs

Jamaal Charles:
Rush yds: 1,065
Rush TDs: 8
Receptions: 51
Rec yds: 497
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 210.2

The Chiefs ranked ninth in run percentage (45.6) last season, making it three years in a row that the team has run it 43 percent of the time or more under head coach Andy Reid. ... Before going down with an injured knee, Jamaal Charles averaged 18 touches, 108 scrimmage yards and one touchdown in five games. Projected over a full season, he would have finished with 245.3 fantasy points. That would have been 12.9 more than Freeman, who was fantasy's top runner. ... Since 2000, Reid has produced a total of eight top-10 fantasy runners. Furthermore, his offensive system has also accounted for a combined 12 top-20 fantasy runners including McCoy, Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley.

 

[Greenbacks]

Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley:
Rush yds: 1,316
Rush TDs: 13
Receptions: 26
Rec yds: 310
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 1
Fantasy points: 244.6

The Rams ran the football on almost 47 percent of their offensive snaps last season, which is no surprise when you consider the presence of Todd Gurley. Before he became the starter in Week 4, the team averaged 71.3 rushing yards per game. However, once Gurley was the top man the Rams averaged 134 yards per game on the ground. ... In the games that Gurley started, he averaged 19 carries, 91 rushing yards, one touchdown and 15.5 fantasy points. Projected over a full campaign, the Georgia product would have led all runners in fantasy points with 248. ... In three games under new offensive coordinator Rob Boras, Gurley averaged 20 touches, 105 scrimmage yards and one touchdown.

 

[Greenbacks]

Miami Dolphins

Arian Foster:
Rush yds: 603
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 38
Rec yds: 415
Rec TDs: 2
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 139.8

Jay Ajayi:
Rush yds: 733
Rush TDs: 5
Receptions: 18
Rec yds: 169
Rec TDs: 1
Fumbles lost: 2
Fantasy points: 122.2

The Dolphins hired Clyde Christensen to take over as the team's offensive coordinator, but new coach Adam Gase is likely going to handle most of the play-calling duties. ... In his last three seasons as an OC, Gase's top fantasy running back has been no worse than 11th in fantasy points (C.J. Anderson, 2014). Furthermore, Gase's offense has produced a top-five (Knowshon Moreno, 2013) and a top-10 (Matt Forte, 2015) fantasy runner in recent years. ... Jay Ajayi is expected to open as the team's No. 1 back, but the addition of Arian Foster means a backfield committee could be imminent. ... Foster, who has missed a combined 23 games over the last three seasons, is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon.

 

[Greenbacks]

Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson:
Rush yds: 1,343
Rush TDs: 14
Receptions: 27
Rec yds: 236
Rec TDs: 0
Fumbles lost: 3
Fantasy points: 235.9

The Vikings ran the football on 48.7 percent of their offensive snaps last season, which is a surprise to no one when you consider the presence of Adrian Peterson. In the seasons where he's played in 14 or more games, Peterson has averaged 1,518 yards on the ground and 12 rushing touchdowns. ... Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has had a ton of success with runners in his career as a coach. In fact, Gore, LaMont Jordan and Ricky Williams all had their best fantasy numbers with Turner at the helm. In his last 15 seasons as either a head coach or OC, Turner's system has produced nine top-10 fantasy runners. He's also had 12 backs finish in the top 20 in points during that time.