I may try to double on this game. I liked Pats - the pts but I dug deeper in my research and I wouldn't be surprised if Houston covers. This game when it first came out reminded me of Tebow/Pats divisional rd aka easiest money in the history of the playoffs. They were -14 vs TEBOW. So the game spread worries me a bit for the patriots here. I am playing for a close game early and a pats 2nd half cover or possibly blowout
Houston Texans +10.5 -130 1st half
GL
Houston Texans +10.5 -130 1st half
GL
I know it is the non logical outcome. These plays don't make sense but I think both defenses are underrated. Dallas has been underrated all year and this year they are healthy. Greenbay defense is playing well imo especially the front 7 and in short yardage situations. But, they are also prone to the big play and are not healthy on the back end. Remember Sam Shields was the one who created that incomplete pass on 4th down in 2014 with the game on the line vs Dallas. He is their best jump ball corner. But Dallas probably will be stubborn with the run to keep Aaron rodgers off the field. Dez Bryant should be bitching for the ball all game and get it in the 2nd half to make the difference. Montgomery is a good player but got twisted up last week and not sure how much of a factor he will be on a injured ankle. He is great in the passing game compared to Christine Michael. The reason why Dallas is the best team in the nfl is because of their effectiveness on 3rd downs. Getting off the field or extending the drive. They are the Carolina Panthers of last year. But they may win the superbowl not sure yet.
This has been a pretty predictable playoffs and I over thought a lot of it. The only theory that I've had proven incorrect is about hot teams. Hot teams this year are 3-0 ats possibly 4-0. And we all know about the home teams so far. Home teams have never gone 8-0 su before in the first 8 games. Never. I am hoping a lock develops itself but if every game is a blowout then I won't have any goy type plays. We'll see what develops but I certainly hope to finish strong regardless
Pittsburgh/ Atlanta is the superbowl.
Honestly it doesn't matter if I think that's the matchup because regardless I'm on a two game chase now against the patriots. "I will never bet the nfl again if the patriots advance to the superbowl and then proceed to cover in it." That is a definite. I'll never resurface in an NFL forum again if that happens. A lot of my angles/theories would be thrown in the shitter forever. So that's how confident I am( sorry new england fans)
But I will double check this week but I'm 100% sure these are my plays. And about 97% sure they both cash, but I will double check during this week.
The reason I'm saying kc will lose is because I would have to bet them over the pats and I don't think they can win that due to that matchup. They don't matchup well vs the pats, but they do matchup well vs ATL.
First time I've ever used the words "two game chase" regarding gambling but when I do shit isn't some fairy tale system I can tell you that
Honestly it doesn't matter if I think that's the matchup because regardless I'm on a two game chase now against the patriots. "I will never bet the nfl again if the patriots advance to the superbowl and then proceed to cover in it." That is a definite. I'll never resurface in an NFL forum again if that happens. A lot of my angles/theories would be thrown in the shitter forever. So that's how confident I am( sorry new england fans)
But I will double check this week but I'm 100% sure these are my plays. And about 97% sure they both cash, but I will double check during this week.
The reason I'm saying kc will lose is because I would have to bet them over the pats and I don't think they can win that due to that matchup. They don't matchup well vs the pats, but they do matchup well vs ATL.
First time I've ever used the words "two game chase" regarding gambling but when I do shit isn't some fairy tale system I can tell you that
okay my thoughts on these games...
first off it is apparent that the media wants to see just two players play in the super bowl. Rodgers Vs Brady. Just get rid of everybody else on the field they don't matter. Just two guys playing tackle football with each other. Media will be in heaven. They have no idea how good the other superbowls potentially would be. Doesn't matter, they want to see the game where they can ask the question, who is better Brady or Rodgers? I would hate football even though I would nail the superbowl for four straight years, I would absolutely hate that matchup. The worst media is the media who acts like they don't have any driving force. That Radio/TV doesn't matter. All week I heard on the radio how GB/Pats is what the media wants and how Pitt/ATL would be a "buzz kill" If that superbowl happens, you tell me in two weeks if that game is a buzz kill. Where GB/Pats would 100% be a buzz kill if you ask me.
Done venting about the shitty media now. Onto the games..
Atlanta defense is fast front 7 to the back end. The difference between this year and 2011 which everyone is comparing this game to...is Dan Quinn and Mike Smith. You are talking about two different style coaches. In 2013 when ATL lost to SF in the championship game there were prior things that made SF come back and win that game. I had that as a GOY play that year because I knew there was 0% chance ATL advanced in that game. The biggest difference between Dan Quinn and Mike Smith is aggressiveness. One coach is a complete pussy who will fold in the face of adversity. Where as Dan Quinn is ultra aggressive for a defensive minded coach. They blew a game vs the Chargers because he went for it on his own 40 with a 4th and 1 in overtime. That does remind me of the 09 Saints like a few people on here have suggested. Except, I think this coach brings a lot to the defensive side of the ball and I don't mean bounty checks. Their mentality is a much tougher team than 2011. You have the leading sack artist in the nfl on your side coming off a bad game where the rest of the defense performed well. I think Atlanta's defense is a bit underrated over the 2nd half of the year and you are now asking them to stick with a handful of injured wide receivers.
Atlanta Falcons -5.5
first off it is apparent that the media wants to see just two players play in the super bowl. Rodgers Vs Brady. Just get rid of everybody else on the field they don't matter. Just two guys playing tackle football with each other. Media will be in heaven. They have no idea how good the other superbowls potentially would be. Doesn't matter, they want to see the game where they can ask the question, who is better Brady or Rodgers? I would hate football even though I would nail the superbowl for four straight years, I would absolutely hate that matchup. The worst media is the media who acts like they don't have any driving force. That Radio/TV doesn't matter. All week I heard on the radio how GB/Pats is what the media wants and how Pitt/ATL would be a "buzz kill" If that superbowl happens, you tell me in two weeks if that game is a buzz kill. Where GB/Pats would 100% be a buzz kill if you ask me.
Done venting about the shitty media now. Onto the games..
Atlanta defense is fast front 7 to the back end. The difference between this year and 2011 which everyone is comparing this game to...is Dan Quinn and Mike Smith. You are talking about two different style coaches. In 2013 when ATL lost to SF in the championship game there were prior things that made SF come back and win that game. I had that as a GOY play that year because I knew there was 0% chance ATL advanced in that game. The biggest difference between Dan Quinn and Mike Smith is aggressiveness. One coach is a complete pussy who will fold in the face of adversity. Where as Dan Quinn is ultra aggressive for a defensive minded coach. They blew a game vs the Chargers because he went for it on his own 40 with a 4th and 1 in overtime. That does remind me of the 09 Saints like a few people on here have suggested. Except, I think this coach brings a lot to the defensive side of the ball and I don't mean bounty checks. Their mentality is a much tougher team than 2011. You have the leading sack artist in the nfl on your side coming off a bad game where the rest of the defense performed well. I think Atlanta's defense is a bit underrated over the 2nd half of the year and you are now asking them to stick with a handful of injured wide receivers.
Atlanta Falcons -5.5
2nd game should be more of a classic imo. I am a nfl historian. So when I realized Pitt hadn't beat New England in New England, I said wtf. How can the Ravens, a team who modeled their play to compete with the Steelers beat the Patriots two times in the playoffs but the Steelers can't ever beat them playoffs or regular season? I think when you can't beat a team, you look at it like this one would make up for all of the past losses. You can't tell me Big Ben isn't thinking that. To go to the superbowl? It seems like just about everyone I have heard is picking a close game but Pats to win 23-20 or something like that. My research in this game says Steelers +6 is a very very strong spot. But, my research also says this most likely wont have pts coming into play. So with that info I rolled with a first for the Steelers. A fun weird stat is an AFC champ game has never gone to overtime. So I laid a little beer money on for that to come to an end. All in all though, it simply is just, their time.
GOY
Pittsburgh Steelers ML +215
Steelers +6
Game goes to overtime +1200 ( small wager)
GOY
Pittsburgh Steelers ML +215
Steelers +6
Game goes to overtime +1200 ( small wager)
New England clearly saved Blount for this game. As he gashed them in the first meeting this year. But that was right after they gave up 200+ to Jay Ajai. So how much of that was correcting things and how much of that was Blount being a problem for them? I think both. Blount is a problem. You saw what the steelers fast defense did to Tyreke Hill. Pats know running Blount will be a better bet than running Deion Lewis. Bud Dupree is a big key to this Pitt team and they shored up some things in the run D. We'll see.
