getting down on: (I included a price comparison showing value from a cross-section including: Pinn,OLY,CANBET,5dimes,sirbet,grande,bodog,carib,cris)
MINN team total wins-
OVER 8.5 +132 CANBET for .5% compared to -125 at bodog
UNDER 8 +105 OLY for .4%
TO WIN AFC EAST-
BUFF +425 PINN for .3% compared to +250 carib
NE +400 PINN for .3% compared to +220 carib
TO WIN SUPERBOWL-
ATL +2000 5DIMES for .5% compared to +1000 sir,bodog
BUFF +4000 CRIS for .5% compared to +1500 sirbet
MINN +7500 CANBET for .6% compared to +1500 sirbet
MIAMI +1600 5DIMES for .2% compared to +500 sirbet
the "compared to" shows the worst price, and hopefully trickles down into the selling price at tradesports. But these wagers are based primarily on the teams expected performance, not that I'm sure that BUFF and MINN will meet in the Superbowl, but I feel that the above teams have a legitimate chance to perform well enough to cause more of the public to buy into these futures at some point, driving the selling price my way for a profit. I dont have time to do a write-up on the entire schedule for each team right now, but I do like MINN to start the season 3-1 and 6-2 is a decent possibility.
MINN team total wins-
OVER 8.5 +132 CANBET for .5% compared to -125 at bodog
UNDER 8 +105 OLY for .4%
TO WIN AFC EAST-
BUFF +425 PINN for .3% compared to +250 carib
NE +400 PINN for .3% compared to +220 carib
TO WIN SUPERBOWL-
ATL +2000 5DIMES for .5% compared to +1000 sir,bodog
BUFF +4000 CRIS for .5% compared to +1500 sirbet
MINN +7500 CANBET for .6% compared to +1500 sirbet
MIAMI +1600 5DIMES for .2% compared to +500 sirbet
the "compared to" shows the worst price, and hopefully trickles down into the selling price at tradesports. But these wagers are based primarily on the teams expected performance, not that I'm sure that BUFF and MINN will meet in the Superbowl, but I feel that the above teams have a legitimate chance to perform well enough to cause more of the public to buy into these futures at some point, driving the selling price my way for a profit. I dont have time to do a write-up on the entire schedule for each team right now, but I do like MINN to start the season 3-1 and 6-2 is a decent possibility.
ATX------ I am also on a big push to Minnesota.I like all the future prices with them.
30-1 to reach the superbowl.
40-1 to win the super bowl.
OVER 8.5 -2.00 is fine by me if it goes that way.
Lots of things to like about this team! The biggest advantage is the weak division.6-2 in the division is very reachable.
Detroit blows
Da Bears are done
Green Bay is just a name these days.
Do you know what the division price is?
Can Dante run for 20 tds and throw for 30 tds?
My other "Price Is Right" team is the Seahawks.
And these 2 teams play one another during the season.Good luck
30-1 to reach the superbowl.
40-1 to win the super bowl.
OVER 8.5 -2.00 is fine by me if it goes that way.
Lots of things to like about this team! The biggest advantage is the weak division.6-2 in the division is very reachable.
Detroit blows
Da Bears are done
Green Bay is just a name these days.
Do you know what the division price is?
Can Dante run for 20 tds and throw for 30 tds?
My other "Price Is Right" team is the Seahawks.
And these 2 teams play one another during the season.Good luck
Johnny,
I think MINN wins the division. But one must be careful about putting too many wagers on one team. A LOT can happen between now and DEC. The main reason I took MINN to win the SB and not the NFC or division titles is because I feel there is more value in the +7500. I am NOT planning on keeping this wager for the duration of the season. If MINN shows me something on defense then I might. But I feel MINN has a pretty legit shot at making the playoffs. If they do then the odds for them to win the SB should be less than 20 to 1, at which point I can SELL at an exchange such as Tradesports. I could be wrong, but at the current +7500, with a historically strong home team, and with Favre's problems in domes, I see a LOT of value with this future. I cant risk more because of limits, plus my lack of experience in SELLING futures.
Seattle is next up. I may pass on them but something about their price keeps calling my attention. I just dont know about Holmgren, not sure how well his team responds to him. Any input appreciated. My sister just moved to Seattle and she is getting together some info for me, but I doubt she gets anything that's not accessible to the majority people in that area. I'm looking at some NCAA football stuff now, maybe a couple of Heisman futures. I appreciate any feedback/opinions on why or why not there is value on any team.
I think MINN wins the division. But one must be careful about putting too many wagers on one team. A LOT can happen between now and DEC. The main reason I took MINN to win the SB and not the NFC or division titles is because I feel there is more value in the +7500. I am NOT planning on keeping this wager for the duration of the season. If MINN shows me something on defense then I might. But I feel MINN has a pretty legit shot at making the playoffs. If they do then the odds for them to win the SB should be less than 20 to 1, at which point I can SELL at an exchange such as Tradesports. I could be wrong, but at the current +7500, with a historically strong home team, and with Favre's problems in domes, I see a LOT of value with this future. I cant risk more because of limits, plus my lack of experience in SELLING futures.
Seattle is next up. I may pass on them but something about their price keeps calling my attention. I just dont know about Holmgren, not sure how well his team responds to him. Any input appreciated. My sister just moved to Seattle and she is getting together some info for me, but I doubt she gets anything that's not accessible to the majority people in that area. I'm looking at some NCAA football stuff now, maybe a couple of Heisman futures. I appreciate any feedback/opinions on why or why not there is value on any team.
I don't like to rain on anyones parade, but I just don't see the Vikes doing the super bowl dance in '03.
It's already been proven that a 6-10 team can go to the Superbowl the next year; but the vikes had the 13th ranked offense and the 30th ranked defense while playing the 25th rated schedule in '02.
They lost two games by 4 points, two by 6, three by 7, and singles by 13, 14, and 25 points - an average loss by more than 9 points per game.
My thinking is that Mike Tice did alright in his first year, and can go further in '03, but he still has a long way to go to prove himself to me. And another thought that is right up there when I think of the Vikes is that any team with Randy Moss on the roster will suffer too much sideline dissension to make it to the post season.
That's my take on the Vikes.
Good luck!
It's already been proven that a 6-10 team can go to the Superbowl the next year; but the vikes had the 13th ranked offense and the 30th ranked defense while playing the 25th rated schedule in '02.
They lost two games by 4 points, two by 6, three by 7, and singles by 13, 14, and 25 points - an average loss by more than 9 points per game.
My thinking is that Mike Tice did alright in his first year, and can go further in '03, but he still has a long way to go to prove himself to me. And another thought that is right up there when I think of the Vikes is that any team with Randy Moss on the roster will suffer too much sideline dissension to make it to the post season.
That's my take on the Vikes.
Good luck!
I don't think the Vikings are a super bowl team (I understand what ATX is doing) but this team is primed to possibly win 10 games. They do have a very tough schedule but so does GB. They can certainly beat Detroit and Chicago home/away and they always beat my Packers here in Minnesota. The last two years, including two years ago with Spurgeon Wynn at quarterback, they have had the Packers beaten in GB but lost the game in the final minutes. They are much more physical than GB and can give them fits. They could go 6-2 in the division.
The defense has to get better, it can't get much worse. The offense will be even better than last year.
BBlight - I'm not sure what numbers you are using when you say they had the 13th best offense. From a yardage standpoint, I rated them the number two offense in the league, averaing 5.7 yards per play against teams allowing 5.1 yards per play. That's 0.6 yards per play more and rates them second, only behind KC.
They only averaged 24 points against 22 points because of the turnovers.
The offensive line will be much improved. McKinnie is in his second year and he didn't get there until about week 8 last year. They add Rosenthal on the line as well. Tice gave the quarterback coaching job to their offensive coordinator around week 8 of last year. He really helped Culpepper get back in sync. Culpepper has lost weight this year and should be better. Moss has committed himself to being a leader and he is in the best shape of his life. The jury is still out on that and until he does something positive, we can't count on that. But, he did improve last year with downfield blocking that we never saw before.
Tice made a lot of mistakes last year. He learned on the job and for him to keep coaching after this year, he will have to show that he learned. But, from a fundamental standpoint, he understands the game. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. They were average against the run last year but suffered badly on pass defense. On offense, they were the best team running the ball.
Minus the turnovers, when this team gets the ball inside the 15 yard line, you are not going to stop them from scoring a touchdown. Moss can do too much inside the 15, Bennett is a threat but more importantly, Culpepper is too hard to stop. If they keep too many men in the box, he has receivers to throw to. If they don't commit enough men in the box, he will run. Just watch them operate inside the 15 and you will see how it is just about impossible to stop them.
If the defense improves at all, and it will, they have a shot. They're not a SB team but they will be improved.
The things that could stop them are turnovers (again), injuries, defense not improving and a tough schedule. The only one that should stop them is the tough schedule. The others they should all improve on.
The defense has to get better, it can't get much worse. The offense will be even better than last year.
BBlight - I'm not sure what numbers you are using when you say they had the 13th best offense. From a yardage standpoint, I rated them the number two offense in the league, averaing 5.7 yards per play against teams allowing 5.1 yards per play. That's 0.6 yards per play more and rates them second, only behind KC.
They only averaged 24 points against 22 points because of the turnovers.
The offensive line will be much improved. McKinnie is in his second year and he didn't get there until about week 8 last year. They add Rosenthal on the line as well. Tice gave the quarterback coaching job to their offensive coordinator around week 8 of last year. He really helped Culpepper get back in sync. Culpepper has lost weight this year and should be better. Moss has committed himself to being a leader and he is in the best shape of his life. The jury is still out on that and until he does something positive, we can't count on that. But, he did improve last year with downfield blocking that we never saw before.
Tice made a lot of mistakes last year. He learned on the job and for him to keep coaching after this year, he will have to show that he learned. But, from a fundamental standpoint, he understands the game. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. They were average against the run last year but suffered badly on pass defense. On offense, they were the best team running the ball.
Minus the turnovers, when this team gets the ball inside the 15 yard line, you are not going to stop them from scoring a touchdown. Moss can do too much inside the 15, Bennett is a threat but more importantly, Culpepper is too hard to stop. If they keep too many men in the box, he has receivers to throw to. If they don't commit enough men in the box, he will run. Just watch them operate inside the 15 and you will see how it is just about impossible to stop them.
If the defense improves at all, and it will, they have a shot. They're not a SB team but they will be improved.
The things that could stop them are turnovers (again), injuries, defense not improving and a tough schedule. The only one that should stop them is the tough schedule. The others they should all improve on.
this isnt as much about the Vikings as it is about value. If you dont understand that statement then you probably dont understand what I'm doing.
If I was trying to pick a SB winner I would put a future on TB. But the NFL's current form shows that it is VERY difficult to repeat, and there are numerous reasons for this (SB schedule, bullseye to other teams, extra games played, lack of desire for some players etc.). At TB's current price I see negative value, I may sell this team. Will Minnesota win the SB? Probably not. But I think if the 2003 season was played 20 times they would win at least one Superbowl with all things the same. +7500 on a dog I feel should be more like +2000 is great value, especially since I can sell at any point during the season. I've stated before that I have about 1/3 on this future of what I will have on each of approximately 300 or more football wagers this year.
The info that I am getting is that Moss is dedicated and focused, the team responds very well to Tice. Keep in mind that last year the Moss fiasco cost Minn the SEA game for sure, and maybe another game or two. The way I see it is this: if Minn starts the season well, say 3-1, I make money- if I see something in their defense I may keep the future. If MINN is fighting for a playoff spot with two or three weeks to go I make more money. If MINN makes the playoffs I make a LOT of money. That GB playoff game last year tells me something about GB, I think their window may have been closed, and Favre may retire after this (disappointing) season.
Sixth, I think you are seeing a lot of the same things that I am, I liked the way MINN with nothing to gain, battled a much better GB team on the tundra, things like this often signal turning points for teams.
If someone isnt planning on selling a future at one of the exchanges at some point, then I feel there is value on MINN to win their division (just not as much). Another thing I should mention is the MINN season win total is a valuable opinion to me.
If I was trying to pick a SB winner I would put a future on TB. But the NFL's current form shows that it is VERY difficult to repeat, and there are numerous reasons for this (SB schedule, bullseye to other teams, extra games played, lack of desire for some players etc.). At TB's current price I see negative value, I may sell this team. Will Minnesota win the SB? Probably not. But I think if the 2003 season was played 20 times they would win at least one Superbowl with all things the same. +7500 on a dog I feel should be more like +2000 is great value, especially since I can sell at any point during the season. I've stated before that I have about 1/3 on this future of what I will have on each of approximately 300 or more football wagers this year.
The info that I am getting is that Moss is dedicated and focused, the team responds very well to Tice. Keep in mind that last year the Moss fiasco cost Minn the SEA game for sure, and maybe another game or two. The way I see it is this: if Minn starts the season well, say 3-1, I make money- if I see something in their defense I may keep the future. If MINN is fighting for a playoff spot with two or three weeks to go I make more money. If MINN makes the playoffs I make a LOT of money. That GB playoff game last year tells me something about GB, I think their window may have been closed, and Favre may retire after this (disappointing) season.
Sixth, I think you are seeing a lot of the same things that I am, I liked the way MINN with nothing to gain, battled a much better GB team on the tundra, things like this often signal turning points for teams.
If someone isnt planning on selling a future at one of the exchanges at some point, then I feel there is value on MINN to win their division (just not as much). Another thing I should mention is the MINN season win total is a valuable opinion to me.
just a note: I am playing dogs and dog ML's on NFLX games unless I can find a solid reason otherwise. Why? Because the majority of these games are toss-ups and random occurrences decide many of these, which gives instant value to the points and the dog ML. I see no reason to wager large amounts. Best of Luck, and I'm seeing if I cant get better on the Jets before I get down. Trends are great...for fading.
