NFL futures and preseason etc.

[HacheMan]

ATX, sounds as if you have quite a bit of knowledge on interactives, I may be looking into this because Ive had several longshot future props in the past come very close in the end. I may look into this because seems as if you and I have a pretty good idea on the same teams who actually have a legitimate shot to reach these futures, or at least make them look attractive down the road. You seem to know value when you see it, and I still agree with Atlanta, dont let others sway your opinon, they came on strong last season and will only get better. Has everyone already forgotten the beating they put on Green Bay in the playoffs, in Green Bay?!

Is tradesports considered one of the more popular?

[This message was edited by Hache man on June 17, 2003 at 08:13 PM.]

 

[Oren1]

I'm seeing something like a 35-17 blowout by the Falcons, I can't wait for the season to start! bring it.

 

[winbet]

ATX, HACHE MAN.
The interactives as you call them, in Britain are called exchanges.Two of them, Sportingindex.com & betfair.com have the worlds largest turnover in sports betting.Due to pressure of traffic, they dont bet on the NFL until a fortnight or even a week before the season starts. betfair.com use the more traditional odds which you can bet or lay, you can even post your own spread on a game. sportingindex.com is a lot more dangerous where you can buy or sell on specified spreads. As an example, one of my bets 2 years ago, I fancied MINN to beat JAX based on injuries if I remember. I had a bet of £30 per point giving a 4 point start. the game was a nightmare with JAX winning 33-3, so my loss was 30+4 x £30 = £1020.Of course it can go in your favour, but it is very volitile. These 2 firms tend to dictate to the rest of the market and more often than not some shrewdie steals the odds while you are thinking about it.

 

[HacheMan]

winbet, so which sites do you recommend the most for such trading, or "exchanges"??...Thanks...

 

[winbet]

Both are 100% safe, sportingindex is backed by the london stock exchange. when the season starts, look up oddschecker.com, they will list all the british bookmakers odds on one page for easy browsing. Most are safe, but I will let you know nearer the time.

 

[ATX]

yup, you definitely need a FAST connection if you want to trade SINGLE games DURING the actual games, I've dabbled with it, and the numbers go fast. You pretty much need to know what number you want to buy/sell at after a score, turnover, etc in ADVANCE as the margins move very quickly.

Win, did you pay much attention to futures, more specifically are they a little more stable as a percentage of ROI? For example if MINN does well at the beginning of the season and goes from 40/1 to 30/1 would a single TD in a close game move it back 35/1 or are they more stable than that? I'd like to know what to expect as much as possible in advance, as it's tough to handicap 2nd halves if you have to keep an eye on interactives all the time.

 

[winbet]

ATX
British tv televise 2 games on sunday, along with the sunday night and monday game. You can bet these games in running, but the SB & divisional markets are locked in until after the game. sportingindex create a spread on the SB as follws:
SB winners=100
SB loser=70
conference loser=50
divisional loser=33
wild card loser=20
all other teams=0
I would guess ATL eg would get a spread of 20-23, that means if you fancy ATL you buy at 23 for say $100 per point. If they win the SB you get 100 points minus 23 you bet them at.If they get beat in the wild card you lose 3 pts.
The spreads will move depending on results, but typically if ATL win the spread will move from 20-23 to 23-25 you would sell at the lower price, meaning in this case no profit.

Divisional loser=33

 

[Gamblor]

ATX, I'm in the midst of doing the exact thing you are right now. I discovered tradesports a couple months ago and intend to give it a try for NFL futures "trading" this season. I too am wondering how much a good/bad game or injury can move the prices, and more importantly I wonder how sharp the other "traders" are. I'm thinking about doing some income enhancement trades by fading some teams I think are overrated. I like how tradesports lets you use margin on such trades so I don't need to have all my money locked up.

As for your picks, I agree with Buffalo and Minny being nice values, especially Minny. Though I wouldn't want to hold Atlanta to maturity either, I like the thought process behind about holding them until after the Tampa game.

Does anyone know how the volume for tradesports for NFL betting differs from betfair or sportingindex? Considering the other 2 don't even have NFL bets up yet I'm planning on using tradesports.

 

[HacheMan]

ATX and or anyone else familiar with tradesports, RPM and myself are seriously considering joining tradesports, but we are still a bit confused about the way the whole process works, and RPM thought maybe you could create a thread just for teaching us, and anyone else interested in joining, the ins~and~outs of this site.......Thanks, this may very well lure users from the RX to join this site, creating even more volume there.

 

[ATX]

I personally know very little about any other index site other than tradesports. Hopefully others will share some add'l views in this thread or maybe start another in the handicapping zone. I really dont have much experience in buying/selling sports futures, but I plan on spending more time on it this season. I have gotten a couple of checks from Tradesports, and I know of several other people that have as well. I believe WSEX offers something similar.

I would be careful starting out in the exchanges (buying/selling of shares on a team) because IMO people willing to throw down really big money can control the market somewhat, especially if there isnt a lot of volume to offset that money. I know that on single games a single score or turnover can really move the market price. Futures should be a lot less volatile, and it should be interesting to see how much a win or loss to a good or bad team moves the price.

Another thing I will be looking at from exchange prices is the difference between price at an exchange on a single game spread, and regular sportsbooks whose lines are often different. Valuable opinions may become further apparent.

 

[ATX]

Hache,

When I signed up over a year ago, there was an interactive tutorial that shows you step by step how it all works. Others can give you much better lessons than I can since I have spent less than 300 hours trading at the site.

The way it basically works at tradesports is this:

you have two teams, and on a football game you have the usual spread (moneylines are offered too). On the spread you also have a price attached- similar to Pinnacle's changing vig. You actually buy shares of a team at an actual price, and that team must win by the spread. A winning team's price closes at 100 (when the clock hits 0:00) and the loser's price closes at 0. So if you bought a team to win by 2.5 at 54 your "shares" will hit 100 if they win by 3 or more, and your share price will hit 0 if they dont (total loss).

But the beauty of interactives/exchanges is that you can buy or sell DURING THE GAME. The price changes, of course, after certain things happen (scores, injuries, turnovers etc.) and the price is dictated by the public's buying and selling of each teams stock. One way to utilize the exchanges/interactives is say you handicapped a game based on a running back/offensive line amassing 150 yards rushing in consecutive games going against a team with a weak D-Line. In the first quarter it becomes obvious that the defensive unit has done their homework and employs a defense which confuses the running offense. Instead of being stuck with that wager, you can sell for a profit or loss at any point during the game which is much better than being stuck with it for the whole game IF you know what you are doing. When I say "the price changes" I mean the price at which someone will buy the shares that you are trying to sell. You can pretty much offer your stock for sale at any price you want, but people will buy at the best available price, and this can change VERY quickly. There are many complex options available similar to the stock market, such as setting margins etc, but I'll let other more qualified people get into that. The vig is also pretty small which is a plus.

 

[SixthSense]

My only experience is at WSEX. And I don't have that much experience doing it. I do have a friend who has spent a lot of time trading Actors and Actresses and movies for the Oscar's. His and my only problem at WSEX was if you plan on betting a decent amount of money, they will only let you bet xx amount and then they adjust the price again before you can bet anymore. That makes it real tough to get any sizeable bet down.

My favorite story from interactive type wagers was a story printed in SI. The Steelers were playing at Jacksonville on a Monday night game in 1997. The Steelers were +3.5 dogs. They trailed 21-23 (covering, of course) with less than 10 seconds remaining. They drove the ball into Jacksonville territory and field goal range. At the time, the Steelers were selling for $99, because they were "guaranteed" to cover the game. A guy figures he'll make an easy $20 bucks and takes the Steelers for 20 shares ($20 x $99 = $1980). They kick the field goal and they not only cover the game but they win SU. They miss the field goal and they lose SU but they still cover. A sure thing, right? Well, the field goal gets blocked and Jacksonville takes it down the sideline and into the endzone for a touchdown. If you remember, that's the game Bill Cowher almost pulled a Woody Hayes and tackled the guy returning the blocked field goal. Final score, Pittsburgh 21 Jacksonville 30. The guy loses $1980 on a "sure thing!"

I like these interactive things because if you watch a game and can see how the game is playing out, you can either take a team that is leading at halftime because you know there is no way they're going to lose or even better, take a team losing at halftime (and presumably getting good value) that you know has outplayed their opponent but just hasn't gotten the breaks.

 

[ChadC]

Nobody should ever compare Micahael Vick to Kordell (bumpy face) Stewart, that is just plain old mean.

 

[ATX]

Sixth, those are the types of scenarios I'll be watching for- when the price exceeds the situational %. In football, since they dont score as often, I may not take too many of those 'penny' stocks, but I have been glancing at basketball prices and seen some good buys when a team is way up ATS- since we all know ANYTHING can happen in the 4th quarter of an NBA game, and frequently does. I wasnt at home for game 6 of the Spurs/Nets game but I wonder what the price dropped to on SA before the 19-0 run in the 4th. Sixth, do you have any input on futures, any idea how much the price changes from game to game say on a 40 to 1 Superbowl pup?

 

[winbet]

Sixth sense,
Just as a quick point about being knocked back on a bet, bookies want to look after all their customers, especially losers. So when they make a mistake, rather than give it all to a couple of punters they give a bit to everyone

ATX
Unfortunatly there is a learning curve to everything, but I suggest you look to the downside until you get up to steam. The exchanges are full of horror stories, if you look up betfair.com now you will see the only thing posted on the NFL is futures for every team to win the superbowl at odds of 2/1. Sounds stupid, but the guy is only one misunderstanding away from making money.
As for your ATL bet, I personally dont think that there is enough in the price to make it an arb (buy or sell then later offload).
There are better futures around, but I wouldnt like to make them public because I havent bet myself yet. Im not sure wether you can e-mail me on here but if you can ill let you my thoughts.

 

[HacheMan]

ATX, how much volume, or players buying and selling do you see at Tradesports.....And Winbet, which exchange sites do you play at, and which did you say were the most popular and populated, as in players? A few of us are interested in joining one of these sites, but we dont want one that only has a handfull of players buying and selling.

 

[drunkguy]

I agree that volatility and volume are major considerations, and the major thing keeping me out of this area right now. As was mentioned before, a few high rollers can really take control of such a limited market. Until it becomes more widespread and popular, there will be a lot of risk involved in this kind of wagering.

I wonder what kind of bankroll you need to start "playing around" at one of these sites? I would probably send $50 or $100 just to screw around, but can't see myself getting heavily involved just yet. Any ideas of what minimum funding is a good amount just to try it out?

 

[ATX]

first move in the NFL for 2003

ATL -2 over Dallas for 1.5%

I would be surprised if this line didnt move past 3 by the Sept date, of course this is so far off that injuries etc may screw me, hence the beauty of money management. Right now I am planning on middling this game, and I may come back the other way for more (maybe DAL +3.5 for 2.5%), and it depends on the line and the situation for both teams.

As for futures, I am planning on finalizing some of my wagers this week, or at least get a solid idea of the price at which I would buy or sell, and then watch for favorable market prices. A lot of what I like about ATL at their price is that I feel they should make the playoffs. I'm not going to put very much on the futures, maybe .3% to .7%, until I get a little more experience.

As for the volume at tradesports, it is decent enough for fair market prices to be available, and exchanges like this can be useful for particular scenarios such as a team tendency to be a strong 1st half or 2nd half team. If a team usually falls behind in the first half, then comes back strong in the 2nd, then you may want to watch for some favorable pricing in the first half when they are behind.

Winbet, I'll try to email you tomorrow.

 

[winbet]

DRUNKGUY
You can open accounts with a credit card and only have to deposit when you bet, but you will have to cover any potential losses. sportingindex.com and igsport.com are 2 must haves, as they offer a wide variety of markets once the season starts. betfair.com is worth having for hedgeing purposes. If you have time, it is worth opening accounts with some of the British bookies found on oddschecker.com, as you never know when one of them will post a ridiculous price. In general they get their prices from the states early but afterwards never seem to take into account injuries.
Some years ago, I was able to bet the winner of a thanksgiving day game on the friday. Although they are more clued up now, even last year one of them had a spread match between 2 punt returners which one of then was on IR. Because a player has to play one down I couldnt take advantage, but that rule was put in place probably because someone took advantage of them. Anyways, you get the drift.

 

[HacheMan]

Winbet...ATX??......Where are each of these based.....
tradesports
sportingindex
igsport