NFL Fantasy News 2012

HacheMan · May 17, 2012

Fantasy Football Top Tens

The wheels are officially spinning on Rotoworld's 2012 Fantasy Football Guide after Chris Wesseling, Mike Clay, Pat Daugherty, and myself each submitted player-position rankings to spreadsheet wizard Adam Levitan on Tuesday. Levitan will combine our preliminary rankings to formulate a final product. All summer, Wesseling and I will tweak them as we see fit.

Unlike in past years, our individual rankings will be made available for your viewing and comparing pleasure this season. You'll be able to compare and contrast Wesseling's against mine, Clay's against Wesseling's, Clay's against Daugherty's, and so forth.

We know you've been pining for fantasy content, though, so here are my early top tens at each position of significance:

Quarterbacks

1. Cam Newton, Panthers -- Newton's 14 rushing TDs probably aren't repeatable, but the Panthers will feel comfortable opening up their offense after his first full offseason in the system. OC Rob Chudzinski is a pass-first mind with strong vertical leanings. Legedu Naanee to Brandon LaFell is a major upgrade, and improvements can also be expected in Newton's TD-to-INT ratio (21:17) and completion rate (60.0). This might be the most physically talented player in football.

2. Tom Brady, Patriots -- Brady has been a top-three fantasy QB in three of his past four full seasons, including two No. 1 finishes. He ranked third in 2011. The Pats won't stop winging it, and Brandon Lloyd will open things up underneath. Brady is a lock for another 35+ TD campaign.

3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- Like Brady, Rodgers is entrenched as an elite fantasy QB with four straight top-three finishes, including two No. 1 rankings. It will be business as usual in Green Bay this season with internal improvement likely from Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley.

4. Michael Vick, Eagles -- Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford might be safer picks in the four hole behind Cam, Brady, and Rodgers, but Vick possesses the highest ceiling and is a lock to offer the most draft-day value. Despite Jeremy Maclin's weakened state, DeSean Jackson's eyes more focused on dollar signs than incoming footballs, and his own hard-luck injuries, a resilient Vick managed to rank sixth in per-game QB scoring and third in rushing at his position last season. Philly's passing offense will be a goldmine for value picks this year, and Vick tops the list.

5. Matthew Stafford, Lions -- Detroit runs the NFL's pass-happiest offense and fields the league's best receiver. Stafford isn't too shabby himself. A Rotoworld darling entering 2011 drafts, Stafford paid dividends and then some by throwing 41 TD passes and ranking fourth among QBs in fantasy scoring. Unfortunately, Stafford's not going to be available in the eighth round anymore.

6. Drew Brees, Saints -- I think the top-six quarterbacks are all fairly interchangeable, so the No. 6 ranking is no slight of Brees. He is squarely in the top tier. The Saints may scale back passing a bit under interim coach Joe Vitt, but Brees will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

7. Tony Romo, Cowboys -- Romo has made it through three full seasons in his career, and he's finished among the top-seven fantasy QBs every time. Dallas' offense remains built for the passing game, and Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are back healthy to inflict serious damage.

8. Peyton Manning, Broncos -- Manning will play with the most physical receivers of his career in Denver, but we just don't know how much velocity he'll recover after four neck surgeries.

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers -- Despite popular belief to the contrary, new Steelers OC Todd Haley favors a pass-first, no huddle-heavy offense with lots of shotgun. With Antonio Brown emerging across from Mike Wallace, Big Ben could pan out as the top value pick QB behind Vick.

10. Matt Ryan, Falcons -- His line remains a concern, but Ryan's weaponry is a major strength and Atlanta may have to lean on the pass game with Michael Turner running on fumes.

Just Missed: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III.

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster, Texans -- The Houston offense has undergone a dramatic shift over the course of Gary Kubiak's seven-year tenure, morphing from one of the league's most pass-heavy teams into its most run reliant. Foster is dynamite in the passing game, and he dominates as a ball carrier in the zone-blocking scheme. He's the No. 1 fantasy back this year, and it's not close.

2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles -- Coach Andy Reid wants to scale back McCoy's carries this season, but that's easier said than done in the heat of battle. McCoy capitalizes on wide running lanes created by a dual-threat quarterback and improving, young offensive line. He probably won't repeat 20 all-purpose TDs, but McCoy will pile up yardage and is likely to catch more passes.

3. Trent Richardson, Browns -- There are factors working against Richardson. He plays in the run-tough AFC North and in an offense lacking a pass game. It is worth noting that one of Richardson's Steelers matchups is reserved for fantasy-irrelevant Week 17, however, and few backs have as much potential to dominate their team's workload. He isn’t a bad player, either.

4. Chris Johnson, Titans -- I'm not sure we'll ever see the same CJ2K who ran for 2,000-plus yards at a clip of 5.6 per, but I also don't think he'll be as out of shape and off his game as he was last year. Still the most crucial piece in Tennessee's offense, a big bounce back is likely.

5. Ryan Mathews, Chargers -- Mathews quietly finished 2011 as the No. 7 fantasy back in standard leagues, and tied for seventh among running backs in receptions. With Mike Tolbert gone to Carolina, Mathews could explode with a stranglehold on goal-line and passing-down work.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens -- Rice's contract situation isn't a concern, but he's unlikely to get the football 367 times again. Still a workhorse with rare all-purpose ability, he's a shoo-in top-tier back.

7. Darren McFadden, Raiders -- No, you can't count on him for 16 starts. But you can count on McFadden to be a week-winning difference-maker when he's in the lineup. Prior to the week of his 2011 Lisfranc injury, McFadden was on pace for well over 2,000 total yards and 14 TDs. New Oakland OC Greg Knapp is one of this generation's most run-heavy offensive minds, and the Raiders will count even more heavily on McFadden with Michael Bush out of the picture.

8. Matt Forte -- Our expectation is that Forte will report by camp whether or not his contract demands are met, but he'll lose goal-line work to Michael Bush and perhaps even some passing-down looks. Bush is a terrific blocker and receiver. Expect more of a committee in 2012.

9. Marshawn Lynch -- Lynch's outlook is littered with red flags after four seasons of mediocrity suddenly morphed into a mammoth breakout down the stretch of a contract year. Lynch is an offensive centerpiece, however, and he benefits from OL coach Tom Cable's tried-and-true zone scheme. He's safely in the top ten because he's going to get the ball so much.

10. Jamaal Charles -- Charles' ACL recovery is a concern, but he gets the edge over Adrian Peterson because he's a better bet to play early, and the nod over MJD because Jones-Drew's workloads are piling up at an alarming rate. The Chiefs' offseason design points strongly toward one of the league's most run-heavy offenses. Charles will be at the forefront of that.

Just Missed: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Beanie Wells.


Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions -- If Newton isn't the most dominant physical talent in football, Megatron is. More so than Foster, Johnson is head-and-shoulders above the rest at wide receiver.

2. Andre Johnson, Texans -- Houston's philosophical shift on offense safely keeps Andre below Calvin, but he's a dynamic playmaker who dominates targets on his team. Andre bounced back from his 2011 hamstring injury for lines of 5/90/1 and 8/111 in Houston's two playoff games.

3. Mike Wallace, Steelers -- Pittsburgh could quietly be headed for an offensive explosion. Their O-Line has received a major influx of marquee talent, and defenses won't be able to double down on Wallace any longer with Antonio Brown now on the radar screen. If Big Ben's visions of Todd Haley's offense are on point, Wallace will set a career high in targets this year.

4. A.J. Green, Bengals -- Cincinnati's running game no longer instills fear, nor will the No. 2 receiver battle of Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, and Armon Binns. Defenses will key up to stop Green, but second-year OC Jay Gruden will scheme to get him the rock. We saw what Green could do as a rookie. He might be the second most talented wideout in the whole league.

5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants -- Victor Cruz's 2011 emergence threw a temporary wrench into Nicks' WR1 reliability, but these things tend to come full circle. Nicks exploded for three 100-plus yard efforts in four playoff games, to go along with four TDs. It's likely a sign of things to come.

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals -- Fitzgerald would be the No. 2-ranked receiver if not for lingering QB concerns. He still finished as the No. 5 fantasy wideout in 2011, so he's shown an ability to overcome. 2012 drafters should hope John Skelton starts more games than Kevin Kolb.

7. Brandon Marshall, Bears -- Based on Jay Cutler's two full seasons as a starter in Denver, Marshall can confidently expect to rank among the NFL's target leaders. Marshall paced the league in both years, and old Broncos assistant Jeremy Bates is installing the same system in Chicago.

8. Julio Jones, Falcons -- Scratching the surface, Jones ranked 11th among wideouts in fantasy points per game as a 22-year-old rookie. You don't want to be late for his breakout dance.

9. Steve Smith, Panthers -- Smith isn't going to lead the NFL in receptions, but he could contend for league highs in yards and yards per catch. Sophomore QB Cam Newton's touchdown pass total is likely to rise in his second year, and his top receiver will be the primary beneficiary.

10. Greg Jennings, Packers -- Jennings missed three games last season, but ranked in the top eight in fantasy points per week for the third time in four years. Many of Jordy Nelson's stats are unsustainable, so don't think there's a changing of the top-receiver guard in Green Bay.

Just Missed: Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Britt, Antonio Brown, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin.

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots -- A man amongst boys, Gronk will make a legitimate case for first-round fantasy consideration in 2012. He's that much better than the rest of the tight ends.

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints -- It's really Gronk, Graham, then everybody else. An athletic freak, Graham led the high-flying Saints in catches, yards, TDs, and targets as a first-year starter. Unguardable at age 25, Graham now enters just his third consecutive year of organized football.

3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots -- If Gronk and Graham have tiers of their own, Hernandez heads up No. 3. Keep in mind Brandon Lloyd's addition may mean slightly fewer downfield targets.

4. Jermichael Finley, Packers -- Finley's 2011 season was a big disappointment, as he led all tight ends in drops by a significant margin and finished fifth in fantasy scoring at the position when Finley's natural tools say he should have easily been top three. It could add up to nice value.

5. Jason Witten, Cowboys -- Witten earns points for reliability and consistency. He hasn't missed a game in nearly a decade while ranking no worse than eighth in tight end fantasy scoring in seven of the past eight years. Still only 30 years old, Witten should have plenty left in the tank.

6. Vernon Davis, 49ers -- Davis openly admits he didn't grasp new coach Jim Harbaugh's offense until late last season. Then magic happened, as Davis averaged 107 yards with five TDs in the final five games, including two unstoppable playoff efforts. He'll be in a better spot this year.

7. Antonio Gates, Chargers -- Gates was a plodding power forward last season, using his big body to wall off defenders and secure Philip Rivers’ passes. There are signs of physical breakdown, and Gates doesn’t run anything like he used to. He’ll be drafted too early for my taste.

8. Jacob Tamme, Broncos -- Tamme will man the slot in Denver's new "Peyton offense," creating mismatches with his deceptive speed (4.60) and knack for finding soft spots in zones.

9. Fred Davis, Redskins -- Davis was the featured receiver in D.C. last year. While he may lose that role to some extent with Pierre Garcon and Leonard Hankerson out wide, Davis will also be tougher for defenses to key up to stop. He'll be a formidable back-end TE1 this season.

10. Dustin Keller, Jets -- Unless you believe in the rookie Coby Fleener, there's a drop off at tight end beyond the top nine. Keller is a good athlete with lots to play for in a contract year, but the Jets are going to run a smash-mouth, run-heavy attack in which targets may be tough to come by.

Keep an eye on: 11. Coby Fleener, Colts -- I'm excited to watch Fleener in preseason because he has a lot going for him. He can run for a big man, and is entering a Bruce Arians offense that could air it out more than expected. Reggie Wayne played like he was on the verge of retirement last year, and Indy lacks a quality No. 2. Andrew Luck may lock onto his college teammate for long stretches.

Just Missed: Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez, Jared Cook.

HacheMan · May 21, 2012

Wesseling: Fantasy Top Tens

On the heels of the Rotoworld magazine and draft guide conference call last week, Evan Silva kicked off our 2012 preliminary rankings with his list of the top-10 players at each offensive fantasy position. Answering a few requests on Twitter, I'm adding my own lists and analysis below. Pat Daugherty is expected to follow suit later in the week.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers – The point guard for Mike McCarthy’s fast-break offense, Rodgers has finished first, second, and first in fantasy points the past three years while continuing to evolve as a passer. Jordy Nelson has emerged as one of the most efficient deep threats in the game, and Randall Cobb could do the same in the slot.

2. Drew Brees, Saints – I was tempted to go with Vick here, but Brees is simply too safe with three top-two fantasy finishes in the past four years. While Sean Payton is one of the most creative schemers in the league, the Saints offense hit its stride down the stretch last year with OC Pete Carmichael calling the plays.

3. Michael Vick, Eagles – If my fantasy sports philosophy could be boiled down to one sentence, it would be this: Give me the player with the highest upside in a best-case scenario. Vick may come with injury risk, but his fantasy ceiling is higher than any player in the NFL. I’m expecting a breakout season from Jeremy Maclin as well as a bounce-back campaign for DeSean Jackson.

4. Tom Brady, Patriots – Brady boasts two No. 1 finishes and a No. 3 in his last four full seasons. Acrobatic field-stretcher Brandon Lloyd will open up the offense, leaving defenses to pick their poison against Wes Welker and the two dynamic tight ends.

5. Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford edged Drew Brees out for the league lead in pass attempts and shotgun snaps last season. The Lions failed to bring in new backfield blood, leaving Stafford and Calvin Johnson to shoulder the weight of the scoring once again. This offense looks more and more like New Orleans North each year.

6. Cam Newton, Panthers – I agree with Silva on two points: 1. The top six quarterbacks are fairly interchangeable. 2. Newton’s 14 rushing scores are unrepeatable. I just don’t expect to see a big leap in Newton’s passing numbers with the same personnel in place.

7. Matt Ryan, Falcons – New coordinator Dirk Koetter runs a more vertical offense, which should allow Ryan to take full advantage of explosive downfield and run-after-catch threat Julio Jones. Coach Mike Smith has made it clear Michael Turner will have a reduced role this season. Hopefully that leads to more snaps for Ryan out of the no-huddle formation that clearly plays to his strengths.

8. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Denver’s non-divisional schedule is a bear, Manning’s arm strength is in question, and the early season could be spent developing a rapport with his receivers. I will be targeting Eric Decker in every draft this summer, but I’m inclined to let someone else roll the dice on Peyton as a QB1.

9. Eli Manning, Giants – I’m an Eli convert. Last year was the first time I’ve seen anything resembling an elite NFL quarterback, and he continued to improve throughout the season. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and Martellus Bennett give Eli the best set of passing-game weapons in his eight-year career.

10. Tony Romo, Cowboys – Romo will miss security blanket Laurent Robinson in the red zone, but Dez Bryant has the talent to lead all non-Calvin Johnson receivers in touchdowns. When Romo is on the field, he always produces as a QB1.

Just Missed: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, Running Backs

1. Arian Foster, Texans – The unanimous No. 1 overall pick, as chosen by the Rotoworld foursome of Silva, Wesseling, Mike Clay, and Pat Daugherty. Foster is slump-proof as one of the NFL’s most dangerous pass-catching backs in what has transitioned to a run-oriented offense.

2. Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Good luck finding a more efficient starting tailback. Mathews averaged 5.7 yards every time he touched the ball last season, tops among all backs with 200+ combined carries and catches. With Mike Tolbert out of the picture, Mathews’ 222 rushes, 50 receptions, and goal-line looks can all be expected to spike in 2012.

3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles - Those with a risk aversion should go the safe route and draft McCoy over Mathews. Although Shady won’t flirt with 20 touchdowns again, his fantasy floor is exceptionally high as one of the league’s best pass-catching backs in a highly explosive offense.

4. Chris Johnson, Titans – After averaging a fantasy-sabotaging 71.5 scrimmage yards per game in the first half of the season, Johnson spiked to 111.6 in the second half. One of the few durable three-down backs in the league, Johnson’s touchdown total should rise as the Titans open up the offense to showcase their explosive young talent.

5. Ray Rice, Ravens – Playoffs included, Rice has averaged over 400 touches per over the past three seasons. While that heavy workload has led directly to a pair of top-five fantasy finishes, it doesn’t bode well for his legs going forward.

6. Darren McFadden, Raiders – The goal is to fill your roster with unstoppable monsters that give you an advantage over every other team in the league each week. Injuries at running back are common enough that you have to place a high value on the ones who score the most points when they are in the lineup. Is McFadden injury-prone or a victim of bad luck? At his talent- and production-level, I’m willing to gamble that it’s the latter.

7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – Jacksonville’s defensive players were calling the new offense the “greatest show on turf” at minicamp. That’s absurd, of course. The Jags will be lucky to rise to middle-of-the-road on offense, but the offseason additions at wide receivers (and the possible replacement of Blaine Gabbert with Chad Henne) should mean more scoring opportunities for Jones-Drew.

8. Trent Richardson, Browns – If you believe the top analysts in the business, Richardson is the best back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson a half-decade ago. The difference between the two as rookies is that Richardson is already entrenched as the starter and possible three-down back whereas Peterson came off the bench behind Chester Taylor. Richardson is a darkhorse to lead the NFL in touches as a rookie.

9. Adrian Peterson, Vikings – I don’t doubt Peterson. Ever. He’s been the best running back in the league since he first stepped foot on an NFL field. He’s also the rare physical freak who refuses to be outworked. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he’s starting in the Vikings backfield to open the season.

10. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch looks out of place on any top-10 list, I know. I’m less than thrilled about his presence here, but he’s now Seattle’s offensive identity after the offensive line gelled behind Tom Cable’s zone-blocking scheme in the second half of last season. Pete Carroll is going to keep feeding him the ball 20+ times per game.

Just Missed: Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions – No-brainer. Megatron is the most unstoppable skill-position player in the NFL, and he has a quarterback whose strengths are perfectly suited to his own game.

2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Fitz would be vying for the No. 1 spot if he had a Stafford of his own. He boasts four top-five fantasy seasons in the last five years, including three seasons with 1,400+ yards. Fitzgerald is a fantasy rock.

3. Andre Johnson, Texans – Johnson started the season with a three-game average of 105.3 yards and closed it out with 100.5 yards per in two playoff games. Although twin hamstring injuries essentially washed out the rest of his season, Johnson remains a stud when he’s in the lineup.

4. Steve Smith, Panthers – One of the few receivers who can produce WR1 numbers in the face of consistent double teams, Smith has a legit shot at the No. 1 spot if Cam Newton can increase his touchdown passes by 6-10 in his second season.

5. Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin managed to finish seventh in fantasy points despite not being featured as an offensive focal point until the second half of the season. From Week 10 on, Harvin averaged 103.3 yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per game. Extrapolated over a full season, those numbers would have had him on Calvin Johnson’s production level.

6. Julio Jones, Falcons – As fantasy’s top receiver from Weeks 14-17, Jones put quite a few trophies on the mantle in his rookie season. Already a top-10 fantasy receiver on a points-per-week basis, Jones would have ranked fifth among all wide receivers and tight ends if his 11 full games were extrapolated to 16. He’s the most explosive run-after-catch receiver in the league.

7. Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Bryant finished 15<sup>th</sup> in fantasy points despite raw route running, a nagging quadriceps injury, and an inconsistent rapport with RotoPat points out that Bryant, “unbelievably physically dominant,” seemed to take over at least one half of every game last year. He’s ready to put it all together in his third season.

8. Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Nicks removed all doubt about the identity of the Giants’ true No. 1 receiver when he threw up a monster 28/444/4 line in the playoffs to overshadow Victor Cruz’s 21/269/1 showing. Cruz may prove to be a better value if you can get him a few rounds later, but Nicks is the better player.

9. Mike Wallace, Steelers – Don’t let the second half of last season full you. Wallace, not Antonio Brown, is the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Todd Haley’s Cardinals finished second in the NFL in pass attempts in his only two seasons as offensive coordinator. This will remain a pass-heavy offense.

10. Roddy White, Falcons – Roddy is so reliable that he reached the century mark in receptions while leading the NFL in drops last season.

Just Missed: A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Gronk has 28 touchdowns the past two seasons. No other tight end has more than 17 over that span.

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints – Drew Brees’ new go-to receiver, Graham had 23 more targets than any other NFL tight end – and 42 more than Marques Colston.

3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – If not for the early season knee sprain, Hernandez would have joined Gronk and Graham in the 1,000-yard club. As it was, he and Antonio Gates were the only other tight ends to reach nine fantasy points per week.

4. Vernon Davis, 49ers – Davis acknowledged after the season that he was overwhelmed by Jim Harbaugh’s offense early on. His last five games, including a dominant playoff run, project to 90 catches, 1,715 yards, and 16 touchdowns over a full 16-game schedule.

5. Antonio Gates, Chargers – With Vincent Jackson out of the picture, there’s certainly a valid argument that Gates should be as high as No. 3 on this list. Coach Norv Turner is confident that Gates is finally over his troublesome foot injuries, but at age 32 he may be past his prime.

6. Jermichael Finley, Packers – Finley finished fifth in fantasy points in a disappointing season, thanks in large part to a career-high eight scores. I’m expecting more consistency in 2012.

7. Fred Davis, Redskins – A first-time starter, Davis edged out bigger names Jermichael Finley and Jason Witten in points per game. In fact, Gronkowski and Graham were the only tight ends to top Davis’ 66 yards per game.

8. Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten may be a picture of season-to-season consistency, but his week-to-week production was all over the map last year. After Dallas’ Week 5 bye, Witten topped 50 yards just four times the rest of the way.

9. Jared Cook, Titans – Cook closed out the season as a top-eight tight end over the final five weeks despite getting shut out completely in two of those games. There may too many mouths to feed in Nashville, but Cook has the highest upside outside of the top-eight.

10. Owen Daniels, Texans – Nagging injuries and presence of rare tight-end vulture Joel Dreessen sapped Daniels’ production in the second half of the season. With Dreessen out of the picture, Daniels should see an uptick in red-zone targets.

Just Missed: Brent Celek, Coby Fleener, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Gonzalez, Jacob Tamme

HacheMan · May 23, 2012

Can Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow help us?

Eric Karabell

It wasn't too long ago that Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow were considered two of the top tight ends in fantasy football. Clark had a nice run with the Indianapolis Colts in which he was top-five at the position from 2007-09; he reached double-digit touchdowns twice and hauled in 100 Peyton Manning passes in 2009. Winslow has been a top-10 tight end in four separate seasons, averaging 72 receptions the past six seasons and reaching 1,000 receiving yards once. In the past week, both were involved in transactions, as Clark found a new home replacing Winslow in Tampa, while Winslow was sent to the Pacific Northwest for a measly late draft pick.

Ultimately, I didn't blow up my tight end rankings for this chain of events; neither Clark nor Winslow belong anywhere close to the top 10 at the position. That said, things are a bit different in ESPN Fantasy Football standard leagues this season: A tight end can be used at the flex position. As such, more than 10 tight ends will be chosen in most leagues. I recently participated in a mock draft, and I can tell you I chose a second tight end (it was Tony Gonzalez, and I already had Fred Davis). I did so not simply for position depth or in case Davis fails, but because at the time, Gonzalez made sense, over the running backs and wide receivers still on the draft board, as an occasional flex option. And yes, it was a point-per-reception format.

Clark's health and Winslow's attitude have been problems in recent seasons, and it's tough to tell if anything will change definitively in 2012. Clark joins a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad that was simply awful in 2011; no team allowed more points than the Buccaneers, and it's not like the Josh Freeman-led group thrived offensively. Freeman took a major step backward as a QB, taking wide receiver Mike Williams with him. Winslow led the team in receptions with 75 and was second in targets and receiving yards, but he scored a mere two touchdowns. Winslow was never a big touchdown-maker, with a career best of five, but now he's getting a new start with the Seattle Seahawks, a team that barely used its tight ends in 2011 and should have a new quarterback.

For now I'm leaving Clark and Winslow out of my top 200, just as colleague Christopher Harris did recently. My reasoning for Clark is based mostly on health. He missed time in 2011 due to leg and neck injuries, and a good portion of 2010 because of a wrist injury. He's going to be 33 in June. I actually like Freeman and Williams to bounce back this season to some degree, not entirely to 2010 levels, but it's folly to expect 16 games from Clark or a major role in the offense similar to his Colts days. I think his ceiling would be around 50 receptions, 600 yards and a few touchdowns, nothing like his heyday.

Then again, I don't think losing Winslow -- even if Clark isn't his old self -- hurts Freeman, who was terrible last season. Ten of Freeman's NFC-leading 22 interceptions came when Winslow was the target. ESPN's NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas reports that over the past four seasons, the only quarterback-receiver tandem that combined for more interceptions when a specific receiver was targeted was the Carson Palmer-Terrell Owens duo for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2010. Perhaps losing Winslow is a gain for Williams, who many believe was going to see a reduction in targets anyway because of the Vincent Jackson signing. Not necessarily.

Winslow had more value before this trade, frankly. The Seahawks pretty much ignored their tight ends last season, as Zach Miller led the way with 44 targets and 25 receptions. John Carlson, who used to be relevant, is now with the Minnesota Vikings. Of course, the Seahawks paid ample funds for former Green Bay Packers backup Matt Flynn, and I'd think Winslow won't be entirely bored. Take the under on his season average of 72 receptions, though. Miller is a superior blocker, and we should see many multiple-tight end sets, or perhaps Winslow sees time as an H-back.

I'd rather have Winslow than Clark for fantasy, frankly, but neither crack my top 20 tight ends. I'd still prefer to go with the tight ends below as my backup (and perhaps flex choice if bye weeks are an issue): Brent Celek, Jacob Tamme, Jermaine Gresham, Owen Daniels, Martellus Bennett and even Indy rookie Coby Fleener.

HacheMan · May 24, 2012

Ten key players for 2012 drafts

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

I've been a busy beaver for the past couple months, writing profiles and creating statistical projections for about 300 NFL players in anticipation of the 2012 fantasy football season. And when you take a necessarily broad view of the NFL landscape, you begin to recognize the linchpin players that could very well make or break fantasy teams this season.

Some are players whose performances were so good in '11 that it's hard to believe they can repeat. Others were terrible last season, and seem difficult to trust. Then there are those who will seek to return from serious injury, and either reward or burn those owners who trust them. I don't claim to know all the answers about these linchpin players; if I did, they probably wouldn't be linchpin players. But continuing to sift through and organize all these profiles and projections, I certainly have begun to form my opinions.

So let's take a look at 10 of the most vexing, interesting potential fantasy draftees in '12, and I'll let you know where I currently stand on them.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings: I hope I don't have to prove my Peterson Fan Club membership to you. Two years ago, I told you to draft Peterson ahead of Chris Johnson. Last year, I argued you should take him first overall again. I am an unabashed AP lover. But this year I was absolutely shocked to arrive at ESPN's fantasy football summit and find some colleagues advocating that he should still be a first-round draft pick in 2012. As I say, I'm as dyed-in-the-wool a Peterson fan as you'll ever find, but I think that's crazy.

Let's get a couple of things out of the way. First, let's stop reading the rosy Vikings' medical reports on Peterson's torn ACL. They don't exist for us to learn anything. Every athlete who's ever had an injury is "ahead of schedule." Second, I am fully aware that treating every player who ever suffered a particular injury exactly the same is reductive and simplistic. Torn ACLs come in different shapes and sizes. I get it. There's a range of possible results, and a person's superhuman-ness can potentially affect one's recovery time. That AP is already running really fast in a straight line is better than the alternative, but the distance between running in a straight line and being a No. 1 fantasy back in '12 is approximately equivalent to the distance between me writing this column, and me winning the Nobel Prize for Literature.

Running backs who tear ACLs tend to see their production decrease the following season. Running backs who tear ACLs late in the season (AP tore his on Christmas Eve) have a frightening record the next year. Here are some recent sufferers, and their stats the season after their torn ACLs:

Notable recent ACL injuries, Stats in following season

<table><thead><tr><th> Player </th><th> Time of Injury </th><th> Games </th><th> Carries </th><th> TD </th><th> YPC </th><th> YPC Previous Year </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Jamal Lewis </td><td> 2001, preseason </td><td> 16 </td><td> 308 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 4.3 </td><td> 4.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Edgerrin James </td><td> 2001, Week 6 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 277 </td><td> 2 </td><td> 3.6 </td><td> 4.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Deuce McAllister </td><td> 2005, Week 5 </td><td> 15 </td><td> 244 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 4.3 </td><td> 4.0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Deuce McAllister </td><td> 2007, Week 3 </td><td> 13 </td><td> 107 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 3.9 </td><td> 4.3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ronnie Brown </td><td> 2007, Week 7 </td><td> 16 </td><td> 214 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 4.3 </td><td> 4.2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kevin Jones </td><td> 2007, Week 13 </td><td> 11 </td><td> 34 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 3.2 </td><td> 3.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kevin Smith </td><td> 2009, Week 13 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 34 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 3.9 </td><td> 4.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Montario Hardesty </td><td> 2011, preseason </td><td> 9 </td><td> 88 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 3.0 </td><td> N/A </td></tr></tbody></table>

The cases of Lewis, McAllister (the first time) and Brown tell us a return to form isn't impossible for Peterson. But the cases of Jones and Smith are much more alarming, since they're the two guys who tore their ACLs in the season's final month. AP's injury happened later than any of these players'.

It's funny, when the ESPN rankers came to the case of Rashard Mendenhall, nobody hesitated; they ruled him basically worthless in redraft leagues for '12 because of his torn ACL. But Mendy's injury happened just one week after AP's. And yes, I realize Wes Welker tore his ACL in Week 17 of the '09 season and played Week 1 in '10, but I'm not sure that's the case study AP supporters want to use: Welker caught 86 passes that year, easily his worst season in New England.

Bottom line: I have Peterson ranked as my No. 23 RB this year. The group ESPN ranking is No. 11. So much has to go right for AP to be worth a second-round fantasy draft pick, that it's very clear I'll be staying away from him this season.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots: The Gronk will test the limits of how early someone is willing to take a tight end. He set a record for receiving yards and TDs by a TE last season, and looks well-nigh unstoppable. Heck, Jimmy Graham is almost in the exact same category. How early should these guys go?

Against my better instincts, I've ranked Gronk as a mid-second-round pick in 10-team leagues, and as my No. 16 player overall. Graham comes in at No. 21. But honestly, I don't feel good about it. A tenet of my fantasy drafting philosophy is to avoid taking guys the season after absurd, seemingly unrepeatable production. Still, there's so much uncertainty about running backs this year (trust me, that will be a theme in our '12 fantasy coverage) that I'm hard-pressed to find players I'd draft before these stud TEs.

That said, I've read some folks who consider Gronkowski a lock, no-doubt first-round pick. And I think that's going too far. The logic is that Gronk and Graham have the potential to be so much better than other tight ends, they're worth grabbing right away, giving you a stranglehold on dominating the TE position. Since RBs are going to be a crapshoot anyway, why not just wait to take them? Unfortunately, the facts don't bear out this logic. Look at last year's Value-Based Drafting results, and you'll see that even in his monstrous, 18-TD season, Gronkowski wasn't one of the 10 most valuable players in fantasy:

Value-Based Drafting results, 2011 season

<table><thead><tr><th> Rk </th><th> Player </th><th> Team </th><th> Pos </th><th> VBD Pts </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 1 </td><td> Ray Rice </td><td> Bal </td><td> RB </td><td> 199 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2 </td><td> Aaron Rodgers </td><td> GB </td><td> QB </td><td> 190 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 3 </td><td> LeSean McCoy </td><td> Phi </td><td> RB </td><td> 186 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 4 </td><td> Drew Brees </td><td> NO </td><td> QB </td><td> 185 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 5 </td><td> Maurice Jones-Drew </td><td> Jac </td><td> RB </td><td> 165 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 6 </td><td> Cam Newton </td><td> Car </td><td> QB </td><td> 157 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 7 </td><td> Tom Brady </td><td> NE </td><td> QB </td><td> 157 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 8 </td><td> Arian Foster </td><td> Hou </td><td> RB </td><td> 154 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 9 </td><td> Calvin Johnson </td><td> Det </td><td> WR </td><td> 146 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 10 </td><td> Matthew Stafford </td><td> Det </td><td> QB </td><td> 138 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 11 </td><td> Rob Gronkowski </td><td> NE </td><td> TE </td><td> 128 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Graham finished 22nd in VBD in '11. Given that Gronk is coming off ankle surgery and will get even more attention from opposing defenses, I think it's fair to argue he's seen his peak as a fantasy player.

Bottom line: I feel a bit unclean even considering a tight end in the second round, and the truth is I'm unlikely to own either Gronk or Graham this season. That said, considering them first-rounders is folly.

Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants: What's that I just wrote about avoiding players who've recently done the near-miraculous? Cruz fits that mold to a tee. He finished '11 as fantasy's No. 4 wideout despite going undrafted in most leagues; from Week 3 forward, he was the No. 2 WR. Cruz did his touchdown samba nine times, rendering Mario Manningham superfluous. And the Giants hope that rookie Rueben Randle is advanced enough to play a bunch on the outside, allowing Cruz to work from the slot in three-receiver sets.

I don't think Cruz is a bad player, but I rate him No. 20 among WRs this year. Our ESPN group ranks have him at No. 10. What I'm most worried about is big-play repeatability. Cruz isn't a burner, and he's 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds. I do consider him a fantasy starter because Eli Manning loves to throw it to slot receivers (remember Steve Smith's glory days?), and because Cruz is a good player. But will he score TDs of 74, 68, 72, 99 and 74 yards again this season? For the record, the passes on those five scores traveled 8, 43, 41, 11 and 6 yards in the air, respectively. (And one of the long ones came on a Monday night game in New Orleans where the Giants were getting blown out in the fourth quarter and Cruz was literally uncovered deep.) Seriously, look up those five long scores on YouTube, and tell me you think they're repeatable in '12. Take away three of them, and Cruz would've finished outside the top 10 fantasy WRs last season Take away all five, and he would've finished in the 18 to 22 range.
Bottom line: It's fair to claim Cruz's targets and receptions could rise this season, but for a player of his stature to continue to produce No. 1 fantasy wideout numbers, he'll either have to continue his skein of crazy open-field plays, or morph into Carolina's Steve Smith. I don't think he's that guy, and I don't think the Giants will use him exclusively as an outside WR.

Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Vick is one of four players listed here who also made this column last year. Except last year, I warned you about how overvalued he was. This year, I think he could be a bargain. The talk that Vick would ever be worth a first-round pick or even the No. 1 overall selection was always shaky, mainly because his playing style makes him one of the most naturally injury-prone players in the NFL. He can't help himself. The problem isn't just that Vick scrambles so much (though he did have 76 rush attempts in 13 games in '11, third-highest behind Cam Newton and Tim Tebow); it's also that he's too brave. He stands in like Ben Roethlisberger, waiting and waiting, and he takes big shots. Vick's key problem is that unlike Newton, Tebow and Big Ben, he's 6-foot, 215 pounds. He can't weather the shots like those other monsters.

That said, Vick's downside comes with an upside. Last year, I correctly argued that his nine rushing TDs from '10 had almost no chance of repeating. But I didn't expect he'd end up with one (and that one came in Week 15). I mean, he did still have average 7.8 yards per carry, and he did break a run of at least 10 yards (and as many as 53) in each of his first nine games last year. That none of them went for TDs is at some point bad luck. This guy might be one of the 10 greatest athletes to ever play in the NFL, and I feel no hesitation proclaiming he's the most elusive QB in history. And now Philly has gotten him to be a 60 percent passer? That's pretty great.

I'm not just being a contrarian here. We find value in fantasy when general perception bends too far one way or another. Vick finished 11th in fantasy points among QBs last year and missed three games, giving him seven missed contests in two years as a starter with the Eagles. There's going to be a public perception out there that you can't rely on Vick to be your fantasy starter, and I think that's nutso.

Bottom line: I rate Vick sixth among signal-callers, and I could probably be swayed to put him ahead of Newton, in fifth. Clearly, if you wind up drafting Vick, you must draft a viable long-term backup, because injuries are coming. But this is still an insane athlete who can win you fantasy games by himself.

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns: I'll say it again: The running back position figures to be maddening in '12. I've spent months considering and reconsidering where to rank these guys, but there are so many unknowns, and so many time-shares. Richardson, the Heisman-winning rookie, jumps to a team that almost certainly will yoke their fortunes to him right away, and make him one of the league's few true No. 1 backs. I'll be generous and proclaim 10 of 32 teams have clear workhorse RBs; if Richardson is one of them, there's a temptation to make him a first-round pick right away.

I wouldn't do it. There are a couple forces at work here. First, there's the rookie factor. Is it impossible for a rookie RB to turn in a top-10 fantasy season? No: In the past 10 years, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton did in it '08, Peterson did it in '07, Maurice Jones-Drew did it in '06, and Clinton Portis did it in '02. But that's it. Five guys in 10 years. A whopping 73 RBs were drafted in the first three rounds from '02 to '11, and only five have turned out to be No. 1 fantasy backs in their rookie seasons. And only one of those five (Peterson) was, himself, a first-rounder in the NFL draft. And before you proclaim that Richardson is already a different case because he was a top-10 pick, here's how the other top-10 RB picks have fared in their rookie years this decade:

RBs taken in top 10 of NFL draft, Rookie RB rank since 2002

<table><thead><tr><th> Player </th><th> Drafted </th><th> RB Rank </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Ronnie Brown </td><td> 2005 </td><td> 24th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Cedric Benson </td><td> 2005 </td><td> 85th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Cadillac Williams </td><td> 2005 </td><td> 19th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Reggie Bush </td><td> 2006 </td><td> 14th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Adrian Peterson </td><td> 2007 </td><td> 3rd </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Darren McFadden </td><td> 2008 </td><td> 45th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> C.J. Spiller </td><td> 2010 </td><td> 62nd </td></tr></tbody></table>

"Ah, but Richardson will be different," you say, "because in no other of those seven cases (even AP's) did a team hand over the reins completely to the rookie RB." I'm not sure that's entirely true (sometimes injuries were in play), but regardless, that's where the second complication comes in: The Browns aren't very good. Alex Mack turned in a strong season at center, and we've seen left tackle Joe Thomas play well in the past (though I'd argue he didn't play very well in '11), but there are no other even average run-blockers on this O-line. Maybe rookie right tackle Mitchell Schwartz will turn everything around, but I'll believe it when I see it. And I don't sense that a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden) throwing it to one of the NFL's worst receiving corps will take much pressure off Richardson.

Bottom line: I certainly like Richardson's upside. If his more optimistic backers are right, he could be a top-five RB and submit a Peterson-like first year. But (both NFL and recent Browns) history tells us that's not likely. I rank Richardson as my No. 14 RB, which is plenty high for a rookie. Any higher, and I think you're asking for trouble.

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans: It's all about buying at the right time. I know CJ1K is a tough guy to trust after he burned so many folks as a top-five pick last year. I know it's difficult to believe in a player's heart when he holds out into training camp and then shows up so woefully out of shape that he averages 2.8 yards per carry in his first seven games. But I guess that's what I'm asking you to do.

I think Johnson will bounce back. He's one of those select few RBs with no competition, and he plays for a team that prizes the ground game. His decline didn't happen as the result of a major injury, and by all accounts he seems to understand that his behavior last year was terrible; he's participating in the Titans' offseason conditioning program for the first time in his career.

However, the most important factor in Sonic the Hedgehog's rebound, I think, will be the acquisition of Steve Hutchinson to play left guard. I know Hutch turns 35 in November, but he was still a monster for the Vikings last season, and to argue that he's not still one of the top five LGs in the business -- and a vast improvement over LeRoy Harris (who moves from LG to RG) -- is goofy. The Titans were decent when they ran it left last year, but nothing compared to the Vikings. Granted, Peterson had a better season than Johnson, but still, this bears mentioning:

Totals when running left, 2011 season comparison

<table><thead><tr><th> Team </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> YPC </th><th> TDs </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Titans </td><td> 145 </td><td> 640 </td><td> 4.4 </td><td> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Vikings </td><td> 155 </td><td> 836 </td><td> 5.4 </td><td> 4 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Bottom line: I believe we're going to see the Chris Johnson who averaged 5.0 yards per carry with 25 rushing TDs in '09 and '10 combined, and not the guy who stunk it up last year. Am I sure enough about this to throw a top-five fantasy pick at CJ? I'm not. But if I'm picking in the back half of the first round, that's where I'll grab Sonic. He's my No. 5 RB this year.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons: There's a solid line of thinking that says you can't win your fantasy league in the first couple rounds, but you can definitely lose it. Folks who live by that sentiment love White. He's been a top-seven fantasy WR in each of the past four seasons, and led the NFL in targets (and red-zone targets among WRs) in '11. My ESPN cohorts believe another studly season is coming for White; they voted him fourth at his position for '12.

I'm not so sure. Certainly, I tend to believe in statistical trends, but I also know sometimes they come to an end, and having gone back and watched tape this spring, I'm concerned that a storm is brewing for Roddy and his name is Julio Jones. Not that White is destined for the ashcan; he's too good for that. I've loved his skills for years: He's not huge (6-foot, 211 pounds), he's not a burner (4.47 speed back at the '05 combine), but he's ferocious to the football. Nobody this side of Carolina's Steve Smith goes after the ball harder. But now the Falcons have one of the elite athletes in the league at this position. Jones is 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, runs a 4.39 40 and can jump out of the building. He was rarely fully healthy during his rookie year (he battled pulls in both hamstrings), but nevertheless led the league in average yards after the catch. And here's how the two WRs fared in the 10 games that Jones made it from beginning to end:

Falcons WR comparison, 2011 season

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Targets </th><th> Catches </th><th> Yards </th><th> Avg. </th><th> TDs </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Roddy White </td><td> 121 </td><td> 66 </td><td> 844 </td><td> 12.8 </td><td> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Julio Jones </td><td> 85 </td><td> 51 </td><td> 934 </td><td> 18.3 </td><td> 8 </td></tr></tbody></table>

If Jones stays healthy in '12 (and I understand the argument that it's a big if), there's a significant chance that these two stars cancel one another out at least to a small degree. And while I give White a better chance of staying healthy and seeing more balls thrown his way, I give Jones a better chance of exploding in any given week and winning you a fantasy game. I also think the red-zone targets (White had 29 last year and Jones had eight) will be much closer. As a result, I think viewing White as a second-round fantasy pick is overly optimistic.

Bottom line: I have White ranked ninth among fantasy WRs and Jones ranked 10th, so maybe you think I'm splitting hairs. But that's a sizable difference in your draft strategy. If you grab White as the fourth receiver off the board, you're taking him in the middle of the second round, and eschewing WRs like Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace and Wes Welker, whom I trust more.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Like Vick, Bowe appeared on this list last year, and like Vick, I'm about to take the opposite stance I did in '11. Last year, Bowe was coming off a 15-TD season, and I declared that unrepeatable. I didn't (and don't) necessarily have issue with Bowe's abilities; in fact, I think he's one of the greatest leapers at his position in the NFL, and in a different offense could threaten the league lead in touchdowns every year. No, my major quibble was with Matt Cassel, and the way he tailed off badly toward the end of '10 as the Chiefs' schedule grew more difficult.

I still have that issue. Cassel missed last year's final seven games because of a broken throwing hand, but even when he was in there, Bowe scored only four times. (He managed just one TD the rest of the year catching passes from Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton.) In this Kansas City attack, which figures to be exceedingly run-heavy in '12, Bowe needs to make his fantasy money by finding the end zone. In his 75-game NFL career, Bowe has eclipsed 100 yards 13 times; in the 35 games he's started alongside Cassel, he's done it nine times. Provided he stays healthy, Bowe should eclipse 1,000 yards receiving, but not by much.

So why expect Bowe will jump significantly above his five TDs from last year (even if he won't get all the way back to 15)? Well, Cassel is probably a below-average NFL QB, and his 27-TD performance in '10 was probably unrealistic, but 10 TD passes in nine games last season? That's also unlikely to repeat. That's Colt McCoy and Alex Smith territory. It's rational to suggest Cassel will throw at least 15 scores, and considering Bowe has caught 22 of the 53 scoring strikes Cassel has tossed in Kansas City, I believe Bowe will benefit from that increased end-zone production.

Bottom line: Bowe was over-drafted as a top-10 receiver last season, but I think ESPN's group ranking of him as the No. 21 wideout is too low. I've got him at No. 15 among fantasy WRs in '12, a no-doubt starter in all leagues. I think he'll be closer to 10 scores than five this year.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Turner is the one glaringly obvious guy I messed up in this article last year. I worried about injury, I worried that the cliff was coming, and all Turner did in '11 was finish fifth in fantasy points among RBs, third in rushing yards, second in carries and tied for fifth in rushing TDs. But for the second straight year, the Burner looked spent by the time December came. His late '10 slowdown wasn't an indication that he was cooked, but I'm concerned that his '11 slowdown might be:

Michael Turner, Final 7 games of 2011 season, including playoffs

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> YPC </th><th> Long </th><th> TDs </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Week 12 </td><td> 19 </td><td> 60 </td><td> 3.2 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Week 13 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 44 </td><td> 3.1 </td><td> 16 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Week 14 </td><td> 21 </td><td> 76 </td><td> 3.6 </td><td> 13 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Week 15 </td><td> 19 </td><td> 61 </td><td> 3.2 </td><td> 16 </td><td> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Week 16 </td><td> 11 </td><td> 39 </td><td> 3.5 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Week 17 </td><td> 17 </td><td> 172 </td><td> 10.1 </td><td> 81 </td><td> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Wild Card </td><td> 15 </td><td> 41 </td><td> 2.7 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table>

Take away that Week 17 game against a Buccaneers D that had quit (and really, take away one fluky run up the left side in that game, where about three Tampa defenders outran Turner and then just sort of fell down before tackling him), and you're talking about a disastrous seven-game skein.

Is Turner's burst gone on every play? No, and he made enough good runs in the first half last year to produce some fine numbers. But at some point, you have to be skeptical about why this keeps happening. Falcons coach Mike Smith has gone on record saying he expects to lessen the Burner's load this year, though it's fair to ask who on the Atlanta roster is ready to take that burden (Jason Snelling? Jacquizz Rodgers?). I was wrong in 2011, but I don't want to take Turner in the late-first or early-second round this year, and have Father Time finally catch him for good.

Bottom line: Our ESPN rankers have Turner as their No. 16 back, so they're worried, too. Turner is No. 18 on my list. But it's fairly certain that the Burner will go significantly higher in many drafts, simply based on his stellar top-line numbers in '11. He turned 30 in February, though, and you know what that can mean.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Last comes Hills, whom I rightly doubted in this column last year. And now I proclaim that the needle has flipped too far the other way, and Hillis represents value. Coming off a 13-TD, 1,654-total-yard season in Cleveland in '10, Hillis seemed a candidate for regression because of his heavy workload and the pedestrian talent around him, but I couldn't have predicted 717 total yards and a contract scenario that got him run out of town. There were few players who were more reviled by their fantasy owners in '11.

But I give Hillis a good chance to reclaim some lost value. My big worry with a 250-pound battering ram of a player is excessive contact; in 2010, that amounted to 331 touches from scrimmage. Kansas City's ideal scenario would see Hillis finish '12 with perhaps half of that. Jamaal Charles will return from his torn ACL, and because he suffered that injury in Week 2 last season, few observers believe Charles is a candidate to miss time at the start of this year. In JC's incredible '10, he averaged 17.2 touches per game, while Thomas Jones averaged 16.2, and that kind of split is likely to recur. Guess which Chiefs RB is likelier to get the car-crash carries near the goal line? It'll be Hillis.

Not only that, but as I indicated at the start of this piece, coming back at full strength from ACL surgery is no sure thing, and if Charles slips early in the season, Hillis will pick up the slack. The Chiefs acquired run-mashing right tackle Eric Winston this winter, who was one of the big reasons for Arian Foster's bust-out in Houston, and center Rodney Hudson is a sizable run-blocking upgrade, too. If I had to choose between the Browns and the Chiefs for an O-line to run behind, I'd take KC all the way.

Bottom line: Like Peterson, Charles is one of my fave players, and because he has a three-month head start on AP, JC is a pretty good bet to be ready Week 1. But being ready and being great are two different things, and even if Charles is in peak condition, I say Hillis has fine fantasy value. I make Peyton my No. 29 back, and thus a definite candidate to play the flex in all leagues.

HacheMan · May 29, 2012

Mathews Can Be No. 1
I know, I know. He's injury prone. He's a disappointment. He fumbles too much. He reported to camp out of shape.

Third-year tailback Ryan Mathews hasn't met expectations inherent for the 12th pick in the draft. No one knows better than the Chargers. GM A.J. Smith surrendered a small bounty to trade up for Mathews three Aprils ago, and so far the organization has largely seen only flashes of potential.

But they're buying in now, and fantasy football owners should, too. Here's why:

1. Mathews is already a really good fantasy back.

There's a perception that Mathews is a tease at best and a bust at worst, and that was true during his rookie campaign (2010). He had one of the quietest breakout years in the league last season.

Despite missing two games and portions of others, Mathews finished the 2011 season as the No. 7 fantasy running back. He scored more fantasy points than Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Matt Forte, and Chris Johnson. Over Mathews' last 16 games, he's piled up 1,266 yards and ten touchdowns on 260 carries (4.87 YPC), to go with 56 catches for 502 yards. By that measure, Mathews would have been a top-five fantasy back over the course of last season.

2. Mathews is set up to contend for the league lead in touches.

As alluded to above, the Chargers know Mathews' strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. Yet they let committee partner Mike Tolbert walk for a below-market deal in Carolina, and didn't sign a replacement. Coach Norv Turner has talked up Le'Ron McClain as second in line for touches. A fullback, McClain has exceeded 50 single-season rushing attempts once in five years. San Diego's only other noteworthy backfield addition was seventh-round pick Edwin Baker, who lost his starting job to sophomore Le'Veon Bell at Michigan State last year.

Tolbert's departure frees up goal-line and passing-down work that is so crucial for feature backs to maximize fantasy value. And we have a decent sample size to examine Mathews when he's been the go-to guy.

Be it due to injury or game plan, Tolbert played 20 or fewer snaps in eight games over the past two seasons. In those games, Mathews capitalized for 149 combined carries, 645 rushing yards, 19 receptions, and 145 receiving yards. And he scored eight TDs. Double those numbers, and you have a realistic -- maybe even slightly conservative -- projection for Mathews' 2012 statistics.

Which leads into my next point ...

3. Norv Turner believes in every-down workhorses.

We haven't seen it the past two years because Mathews has underachieved and Tolbert was so good, but the Chargers' coach has a long, documented history of feeding the football to his top back relentlessly. In Turner's 21 years as an NFL head coach or coordinator, his No. 1 running back has exceeded 270 carries 14 times, and 300 carries on 10 occasions. Over the course of Turner's coaching career, his lead back has averaged 282 carries and 43 catches per season. Turner not only believes in bellcow ball carriers, he involves them heavily in the passing game.

Last season, Philip Rivers completed 123 passes to tailbacks -- the highest total in football. A few of this year's running back receptions will be sprinkled amongst McClain, Jacob Hester, and Curtis Brinkley or Baker, but Mathews is going to be one of the most oft-targeted backs in the league.

4. The Chargers' offense will move the ball this season.

In 2011 -- by all accounts a down year for Turner's offense -- the Chargers ranked sixth in the league in total yards, tied for fifth in points scored, sixth in passing, and 16th in rushing. Turner annually fields an offensive juggernaut. Turner's team has ranked in the top 11 in total offense in four straight seasons. That's a reliable track record when it comes to fantasy football investment.

I try to avoid jumping to conclusions based strictly on prior year stats, though, and there is offseason turnover in San Diego to consider. Schematically, Robert Meachem may actually prove a superior fit for Turner's vertical offense than outgoing top wideout Vincent Jackson. Whereas V-Jax was a buildup speed receiver, Meachem is a true burner on the outside. And from a blocking standpoint, San Diego won't lose much. Meachem was always regarded as the Saints' top blocking wideout.

Turner also plans to use the slot receiver more. Historically a two-wideout coach, Turner can look to promising second-year man Vincent Brown or $13.5 million free-agent pickup Eddie Royal to work the middle of the field, along with Antonio Gates. When teams put more receivers on the field, it forces defenses to adjust into nickel alignments. And those are easier to run against.

5. Mathews appears physically and mentally ready for a leap.

Mathews openly admits his fitness wasn't up to par at the start of 2011 training camp, after the lockout. Mathews didn't just fail his conditioning test to open camp, he couldn't even finish it. And he's holding himself accountable.

“You just know you’re letting guys down,” Mathews told the Union-Tribune San Diego last week. “Guys are looking at you and saying, ‘Come on.’ It’s hard, man. You got to live with yourself the next couple weeks or days just thinking about it. ‘They did it. Why couldn’t I?’

“I didn’t have the offseason workout like I’ve had this year. I really didn’t know what to expect. This year, it’s going to be a lot different.”

Hearing it from Mathews is one thing. Hearing it from team captain Hester is another.

“You should see him with his shirt off,” said Hester, Mathews' workout partner this year. “He looks like Arnold back in the day. We’ve been pushing each other. Shoot, I’ve tried to kill him a couple times. He’s held with it. He’s gone every step with me ...

“I can’t stress how hard he’s been working. I expect him to be great. I really do.”

Turner recently suggested that Mathews is capable of leading the league in rushing.

I wouldn't put it past him.

HacheMan · May 31, 2012

Clay: Fantasy Top Tens
Following the lead of colleagues Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling, today I’m releasing a list of my top-10 players at the four most important fantasy football positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end.

Like Evan and Chris, I added in a little bit of analysis, but instead of a “quick” explanation for the ranking, I offered some statistical tidbits for you to chew on.

Note that the statistics shown include the playoffs. Snap distribution data provided by Pro Football Focus.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers - GB – Rodgers had a 21:2 TD:INT ratio last season…on the road. His 26:5 home mark was pretty good, too. He’s on his own tier at the top.

2. Cam Newton - CAR – 14 rushing touchdowns overshadowed a disturbing 8:10 TD:INT ratio on the road. The rushing scores will regress, but the yardage will remain and he should only continue to improve as a passer.

3. Drew Brees - NO – At Rodgers’ level at home, but his yardage (7.5 YPA) and touchdown (4.6% TD/Att) rate stats are barely above league average on the road.

4. Tom Brady - NE – Turns 35 this season, but the offense around him is even better than a year ago when he put up a 47:16 TD:INT ratio.

5. Matthew Stafford - DET – Don’t be surprised if Stafford takes a step back with his team calling more run plays and so many other top quarterbacks racking up fantasy points with their legs. He only scrambled 13 times last season.

6. Michael Vick - PHI – 26 of his 40 passing touchdowns have come on the road over the last two seasons. Additionally, he scored on just 1.3 percent of his carries in 2011 after putting up a 9.3 percent mark in 2010. That will regress in 2012. Expect top-five production when he’s healthy.

7. Tony Romo - DAL – Touchdown, yardage, and interception rate stats were all better in 2011, which led to a strong bounce back from an injury-plagued 2010 campaign. Romo tends to throw a lot more touchdowns at home than on the road, but also suffers a few extra interceptions on home turf.

8. Eli Manning - NYG – It might surprise you that his touchdown rate and completion percentage dropped from 2010 to 2011, but his overall production was better thanks to deeper throws combined with a substantial decrease in interceptions and a sizeable increase in YAC from his receivers.

9. Peyton Manning - DEN – A product of the dome in Indianapolis? Not exactly. Manning has a 32:18 TD:INT ratio at home, compared to 40:16 on the road over his last two seasons.

10. Philip Rivers - SD – Rivers took a lot of criticism last year, but he wasn’t as bad as you think. When you take out the impact of drops, his completion percentage has been either 75 or 76 percent each of the last four seasons. Recovery from a poor 13:12 TD:INT ratio on the road (was a combined 47:19 the previous three seasons) will lead to better fantasy production in 2012.

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster - HST – He’s scored 33 total touchdowns in 31 games over the last two seasons. In 15 games last year, Foster saw 22-plus carries nine times and was targeted five or more times on nine occasions. His career 4.8 yards-per-carry mark is even more impressive when you consider that he only has a pair of 45-plus yard runs.

2. LeSean McCoy - PHI – The 2011 breakout season for McCoy came despite a drop in both yards-per-carry (5.1 to 4.8) and YAC/Att (3.0 to 2.5). He saw 12 percent of the Eagles’ targets, which is a drop from 17 percent in 2010. He did, however, see a boost in carries and scored a ridiculous 85 percent of the team’s rushing touchdowns (up from 37 percent in 2010).

3. Ray Rice - BLT – Rice doubled his rushing touchdown total from 2010 with 12 in 2011. He racked up five 50-yard runs after combining for seven the previous three seasons. Rice has handled 17-plus percent of Baltimore’s targets and 56-plus percent of the carries each of the last three seasons. He was targeted, at least, seven times in eight of Baltimore’s first 10 games last season, but saw more than six only once in the team’s final eight affairs.

4. Ryan Mathews - SD – A whopping 29 percent of Philip Rivers’ throws were directed at Chargers’ running backs last season (13 percent of which were directed at gone-and-not-replaced Mike Tolbert). Mathews was targeted, at least, four times in nine of his 14 games in 2011. He improved his YAC/Att from 2.8 to 3.2, which helped his YPC jump to a dominant 4.9.

5. Chris Johnson - TEN – Johnson scored on 1.5 percent of his carries in 2011 after not falling under 3.4 percent each of the previous three seasons. His 4.0 YPC and 2.1 YAC/Att were also lows over the same time span. Johnson failed to pull off a 50-yard run after managing nine over the previous three seasons. He’s seen, at least, 13 percent of Tennessee’s targets each of the last four years.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX – Jones-Drew carried the ball fewer than 17 times only once during the 2011 season. After averaging 2.7 targets-per-game during the first 10 weeks of 2011, Jones-Drew averaged 4.8 the rest of the way. He was responsible for an unsustainable 89 percent of the team’s rushing scores. The 4.7 YPC mark he put up was his highest over the last four seasons and that came despite a slight drop in YAC/Att.

7. Jamaal Charles - KC – Charles’ 6.1 career YPC is the best of all time for a back with 500-plus carries. He saw no fewer than nine carries in every game of the 2010 season. From Week 5 on during that same season, he averaged 4.3 targets-per-game.

8. Darren McFadden - OAK – McFadden has eclipsed 113 carries only once over the last four seasons, but is averaging 4.8 YPC on those runs. A poor 3.4 YPC in 2009 was offset by 5.2 and 5.4 marks over the last two seasons. McFadden carried the ball more than 14 times and averaged 3.5 targets in six full games last season. Extrapolated over 16 games, his 2011 season would’ve ended with 293 carries for 1,584 yards, 56 receptions for 454 yards, and 13 total touchdowns.

9. Trent Richardson - CLV – In eight games where he was healthy enough to play more than half the snaps last season, Peyton Hillis – an inferior talent to Richardson – averaged 18 carries and 3.5 targets-per-game. Under the same parameters in 2010, Hillis averaged 18 carries and 4.5 targets-per-game. Richardson will step into a very similar role and should be even more efficient.

10. Steven Jackson - SL – Jackson has seen, at least, 65 percent of the carries and 11 percent of the targets for the Rams over the last four years. Additionally, he’s been responsible for 67-plus percent of the team’s rushing scores in each of those seasons. Jackson averaged 19.4 carries and 4.3 targets-per-game in the 13 complete games he played in 2011. His 4.4 YPC was his highest mark over the last four years.


Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson - DET – Johnson was targeted fewer than eight times in just six of 17 games during the 2011 season. “Megatron” has been responsible for 22-plus percent of the Lion’s targets each of the last four years and 41-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns three of the last four seasons.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ – In 16 games last season, Fitzgerald was targeted fewer than seven times only twice and reached double digits on seven occasions. He’s seen 26-plus percent of the Cardinals’ targets each of the last four years and hasn’t scored fewer than 38 percent of the receiving touchdowns during the same span. Fitzgerald has averaged seven touchdowns over the last two seasons after racking up 15 in 2009 and 19 in 2008.

3. Andre Johnson - HST – Johnson had scored either eight or nine touchdowns each of the past three seasons before an injury-shortened 2011 season in which he was on pace for, you guessed it, eight touchdowns (extrapolated using complete games played). In the six full games Johnson played in 2011, he averaged 9.5 targets-per-game, which was just behind his 10.1 average from 2010.

4. Greg Jennings - GB – Unlike the first three players on this list, who see a majority of their snaps out wide, Jennings saw just under half his snaps in the slot a year ago. That wasn’t typical for Jennings, but it resulted in an impressive catch rate just under 70 percent. He saw no less than 21 percent of the Packers’ targets during the 2008-10 seasons and would’ve been right around 22 percent in 2011 if not for an injury that cost him three games.

5. A.J. Green - CIN – As a rookie during the 2011 season, Green was one of the league’s most-utilized wide receivers, handling just under a quarter of Cincinnati’s targets. He saw 7.7 targets-per-game and was thrown at seven-plus times in 10 of his 16 games.

6. Hakeem Nicks - NYG – On a per-game basis, Nicks saw just under 30 percent of the Giants’ targets in 2010, but that figure fell to 25 percent in 2011 thank to the emergence of Victor Cruz. Still, Nicks saw seven-plus targets in 14 of the 19 games he appeared in during the 2011 season. He’s still an elite option despite the foot injury.

7. Roddy White - ATL – Over Atlanta’s final eight games of the 2011 season, White enjoyed double-digit targets seven times. Overall, he was targeted on 30 percent of Matt Ryan’s throws and has been over 30 percent four years in a row. Julio Jones’ emergence led to a smaller cut of the team’s receiving touchdowns (28 percent, compared to no lower than 38 percent each of the previous three seasons), but he still scored eight times in 17 games.

8. Julio Jones - ATL – Jones was a poster boy for regression in 2011, failing to score his first NFL touchdown until Week 9 before going on to finding pay dirt eight times in his last nine games. In the 14 games Jones appeared in, he saw 20 percent of Atlanta’s targets and reached double-digits three times. He plays almost exclusively on the outside, but three of his seven targets from the slot resulted in a touchdown.

9. Mike Wallace - PIT – Wallace was the target on 22 percent of the Steelers’ throws and has scored, at least, 36 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Despite the emergence of Antonio Brown, Wallace saw 8.3 targets-per-game during the last four games of 2011.

10. Victor Cruz - NYG – Cruz’s breakout 2011 season saw him appear in the max 20 games an NFL player can participate in during one season. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, he saw 22 percent of Eli Manning’s targets on the year – an average of 7.6 per game. Cruz plays from the slot quite often, as shown by the fact that 115 of his 151 targets (76 percent) and eight of his 10 touchdowns (80 percent) last season came while lined up inside.

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham - NO – Graham lined up as a wide receiver on over half his snaps in 2011. Although most of his targets came while lined up in the slot, only one of his 14 touchdowns came from that location. In 18 games last season, Graham was never targeted fewer than seven times and saw double-digit targets on seven occasions. His consistency keeps him ahead of Gronkowski.

2. Rob Gronkowski - NE – Gronkowski was responsible for 42 percent of the Patriots’ receiving touchdowns in 2011. He enjoyed double-digit targets five times in 19 games, but also fewer than six targets six times. Gronkowski has scored 31 times in 36 career games.

3. Antonio Gates - SD – Despite missing three games, Gates saw 16 percent of the Chargers’ targets last season, averaging 20 percent when he was active. He has accounted for no less than 27 percent of San Diego’s receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons. Six of Gates’ seven touchdowns last season came while lined up in the slot.

4. Aaron Hernandez - NE – Hernandez saw 10-plus targets in four of New England’s final six games last season. He lined up as an in-line tight end only 29 percent of the time and spent another eight percent in the backfield. Seven of his nine touchdowns came while lined up with his hand in the dirt, however.

5. Jason Witten - DAL – Witten was targeted 40 times over Dallas’ first four games of 2011 before averaging 6.2 the rest of the way. He was targeted in the double-digits three times on the year and all three came before Week 9. After seeing exactly 23 percent of the team’s targets three years in a row, Witten handled 21 percent in 2011.

6. Vernon Davis - SF – Davis averaged 4.5 targets-per-game during Weeks 1-10 last season, but saw 7.1 the rest of the way. Over the last three seasons, he’s been responsible for no less than 37 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns in a given season. That includes 45 percent in 2011.

7. Jermichael Finley - GB – Finley averaged exactly five targets-per-game during the first 11 games of 2011 before seeing 7.3 per-game in the final six affairs. His only two double-digit target games came after Week 12. Finley saw 17 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets last season. His extrapolated numbers in 2010 and 2009 showed him on pace for 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Six of Finley’s eight touchdowns came while lined up as a wide receiver.

8. Fred Davis - WAS – Prior to a four-game suspension, Davis had seen 21 percent of the Redskins’ targets, which worked out to exactly seven per game. He averaged an impressive 7.8 yards after the catch on 38 receptions while lined up with his hand in the dirt.

9. Tony Gonzalez - ATL – Gonzalez lines up with his hand in the dirt about two-thirds of the time, but was only targeted on seven percent of those snaps in 2011. That’s compared to seeing a Matt Ryan target on 21 percent of his slot snaps. In each of his three seasons with the Falcons, Gonzalez has seen, at least, 19 percent of the targets and has scored 21-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns.

10. Jacob Tamme - DEN – Tamme played, at least, half the snaps with Peyton Manning in 10 games back in 2010. In those games, he averaged 9.4 targets-per-game, which worked out to 24 percent of Manning’s throws. With the Colts, Tamme played with his hand in the dirt about three-quarters of the time.

HacheMan · Jun 3, 2012

More valuable in '12: Cruz or Nicks?

Eric Karabell

I'm actually willing to side with New York Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks when he confidently told reporters in a conference call Thursday that he had no doubt he would be on the field for Week 1 of the regular season. This reaction makes medical sense, too, as our injury expert Stephania Bell recently reported Nicks' broken foot has been stabilized. Basically, there's nothing but positive vibes coming from the Super Bowl champion Giants these days for their top wide receiver.

There is some question whether Nicks can actually pull this off, though, and just how valuable he can be statistically considering fellow wide receiver Victor Cruz scored 44 more fantasy points last season. Cruz finished fourth among all wide receivers, and while his numbers seem awfully unlikely to repeat, the fact is that he's a tremendous downfield threat who won't simply go away. Could two New York Giants wide receivers really be among the top 10 at the position?

Well, why not? Sometimes I read or hear fantasy owners back off a certain wide receiver early because he happens to play with a teammate who is similarly productive, but as we saw during the 2011 season, that's hardly a viable reason. The top 20 for fantasy scoring at wide receiver featured four sets of teammates, or 40 percent of the list (8 of 20). Nicks and Cruz were among that group, but so were Green Bay Packers pals Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, Atlanta Falcons Roddy White and Julio Jones and, believe it or not, Dallas Cowboys Laurent Robinson and Dez Bryant. I suspect if Miles Austin were healthy, he would have been in the top 20 and replaced Robinson.

Regardless, I have little concern that both Nicks and Cruz can coexist and star for the Giants and fantasy owners again. Instead of trying to pass by a productive wide receiver on draft day who happens to play with another quality option, I often focus on them. Would you really prefer relying on Kansas City Chiefs star Dwayne Bowe over one of the Giants or Falcons just because Bowe has nobody attracting major attention on the other side of the field? Not really. He also has to deal with Matt Cassel throwing him passes. I feel considerably better about consistent Giants stalwart Eli Manning.

Even with the busted fifth metatarsal, Nicks is a safer bet for fantasy reliability than Cruz. Yes, Cruz had an amazing season and is the one who piled on the yards after catch. Some look at him and think his numbers scream fluke, but as I argued during the ESPN Fantasy rankings summit, I don't see why this duo can't combine for monster numbers again, with a bit more equal distribution. Nicks has had injury issues in the past, and the three-year veteran hasn't had a season like Cruz just did, but he's immensely talented, the best in the NFC East.

If Cruz averages a more feasible 16.6 yards per catch, like the Pittsburgh Steelers' Mike Wallace for example, then his total yards would drop quite a bit. I expect that. Cruz was third in the NFL in yards per catch at 18.7. It will be tough to repeat, as it was for Wallace (21.0 in 2010), but is he a borderline top 10 wide receiver for me? You bet! I'm just taking Nicks first. For now, I've got them 11th and 13th, respectively.

Productive wide receiver tandems are nothing new to fantasy football. Not only do I expect the Giants, Falcons, Packers and Cowboys (with Austin) to provide eight of the top 20 wide receivers again, but I came really close to adding another member of the Steelers (Antonio Brown) and New England Patriots (Brandon Lloyd) to the mix. They didn't make my top 20, not yet. But look at their quarterbacks! They throw a ton and are clearly reliable. The fact they play with stars Wallace and Wes Welker shouldn't make one fearful for their production. Embrace it, because there are plenty of passes to go around, in northern New Jersey and beyond.

HacheMan · Jun 3, 2012

Older Wide Receivers
This article is a guest post by Frank DuPont. You can follow him on Twitter here. You can also check out his new book at this link.

Are This Year's Top Wide Receivers Risky Because They're Old?

A quick check of wide receiver ADP reveals that several of the top wide receivers this year are getting up there in age. Consider that Andre Johnson, Roddy White, and Wes Welker will all be 31 at some point during the upcoming season and they're all being drafted in the top 10 among wide receivers. The age of 31 may not seem that old, but in the past five years only 11 times have WRs been 31 or older while also being drafted among the top 10 players at that position. Of those 11 times, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens account for about 5 of those instances.

The relationship that age has to your fantasy draft isn’t especially clear cut. We know that wide receivers probably peak in their abilities when they're in their mid-20s. But from that point until the receiver hits 33 or 34, the dropoff isn't dramatic. A wide receiver might lose 20% of his per game production in that time. Consider that a wide receiver that experienced a peak season of 15 standard fantasy points per game could reasonably still be expected to score perhaps 12 fantasy points per game in their 30s. Also, being over 30 didn’t prevent Moss or Owens from having career years in 2007 and 2005 respectively.

Things become a little messier when you consider that the 20% that I mention above is just an average. Each player is probably going to age a little bit differently and their decline might not be a straight line.

For instance, Marvin Harrison was 35 when he was the third wide receiver off the board in 2007. He was coming off a 1300 yard, 12 touchdown season. Harrison only appeared in 5 games in 2007 and over the entire rest of his career he only had 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Despite being the second wide receiver to come off draft boards in 2010, Moss seemed to hit something of a wall at 33 years old. He played on three NFL teams that year and probably hit your waiver wire at some point in the season.

Chad Ochocinco was chosen as the ninth wide receiver in fantasy drafts in 2008 when he was 30 years old. Ochocinco compiled just over 500 yards that year, breaking his run of 6 consecutive seasons where he had at least 1100 yards. He would have something of a bounce back season in 2010, although his production that year occurred mostly in just a few big games.

The point in mentioning these seasons where perceived top 10 players at their position fell off is to illustrate that sometimes the previous season doesn’t give us any clue that the drop is coming. It’s also true that age can catch up to even the best players. Perhaps the best way to assess the risk of whether this year’s crop of older receivers might have some downside risk is by looking at players that they might be similar to and see if those similar players stayed productive into their 30s.

Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson is similar on a number of levels to three wide receivers from the recent past. Keyshawn Johnson, Jimmy Smith (JAX), and Michael Irvin are all similar to Johnson on various measures. They are all big receivers. Irvin is the smallest of the group and he was regarded as a big receiver for his era. Also, as we'll see in the following tables, they are also all comparable in terms of their production. First let’s look at Andre Johnson from age 25 to present:

Andre Johnson, Age 25 -- Present

Age 25, 16 Games, 103 Receptions, 1147 Yards, 11.1 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 26, 9 Games, 60 Receptions, 851 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 13.7 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 101 Receptions, 1569 Yards, 15.5 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 29, 13 Games, 86 Receptions, 1216 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 30, 7 Games, 33 Receptions, 492 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 2 TD

Then, here are the stats for Michael Irvin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Jimmy Smith.

Michael Irvin, Age 25 -- End of Career

Age 25, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1523 Yards, 16.4 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1396 Yards, 17.9 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1330 Yards, 15.1 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 79 Receptions, 1241 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1603 Yards, 14.4 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 11 Games, 64 Receptions, 962 Yards, 15 Y/R, 2 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 1180 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1057 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 1 TD
Age 33, 4 Games, 10 Receptions, 167 Yards, 16.7 Y/R, 3 TD

Keyshawn Johnson, Age 25 -- End of Career

Age 25, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 963 Yards, 13.8 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1131 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 89 Receptions, 1170 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 874 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 29, 15 Games, 106 Receptions, 1266 Yards, 11.9 Y/R, 1 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 76 Receptions, 1088 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 31, 10 Games, 45 Receptions, 600 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 981 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 839 Yards, 11.8 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 34, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 815 Yards, 11.6 Y/R, 4 TD

Jimmy Smith, Age 25 -- End of Career

Age 26, 16 Games, 22 Receptions, 288 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1244 Yards, 15 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1324 Yards, 16.1 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1182 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 116 Receptions, 1636 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 31, 15 Games, 91 Receptions, 1213 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 112 Receptions, 1373 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 80 Receptions, 1027 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 34, 12 Games, 54 Receptions, 805 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 35, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1172 Yards, 15.8 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 36, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 1023 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 6 TD

Does a review of the careers of these comparable players offer any insight into what we might expect from Andre Johnson?

First, Jimmy Smith remained productive until he left the NFL. While you can see that Smith had his last season of better than 1200 yards at age 32, he still had three more 1,000 yard seasons before he retired. But it's worth noting that Smith's 2001 (age 32) season was the last one that he could be reasonably described as being the equivalent of a fantasy WR1.

Keyshawn Johnson is similar to Andre Johnson, but of the comparison group, Keyshawn's career is easily the worst. However, before we dismiss the comparison between Keyshawn and Andre Johnson, it's useful to remember that Keyshawn really was regarded as a top talent. He was the number one overall pick in his draft class. When he was traded from the Jets to the Buccaneers he garnered two first round picks in the trade. He no doubt suffered at least in part from being on Tampa Bay teams that weren't very good at throwing the ball. During the 2000 season Keyshawn caught just under 900 yards receiving, although his yardage was about 31% of the Tampa Bay total that year. However, for our purposes we are primarily interested in the point where Keyshawn dropped off in the level of production that he had established earlier in his career.

Keyshawn actually never experienced a dramatic fall off. He did have one season that was shortened due to his feud with Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden. But otherwise Keyshawn's falloff was gradual. He went from being an 1100 yard, 8 touchdown type receiver to gradually providing maybe 80 or 90% of that production. Probably the only real line of demarcation that exists in Keyshawn's stat line is that after age 32 he went from averaging 13 yards per reception to about 11 yards per reception.

Finally, Irvin is also a good comparison for Johnson. Like Johnson, Irvin was the undisputed number one receiving option on his team for most of his career. In terms of Irvin's decline as a player, the 1997 season is probably the last time that Irvin was in the top 10 in the NFL at the position. He ranked in the top 10 in both yards and touchdowns that year. During the 1998 season, when Irvin was 32 years old, he caught just one touchdown.


Roddy White

For the purposes of looking at Roddy White, we'll use two receivers from the recent past in our comparisons. Both Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne are reasonably close to White in terms of production at comparable ages and also in terms of size. White, Wayne and Holt are all medium sized receivers, closer to the 200 pound range.

Let's look at these three receivers in the same way that we looked at the Andre Johnson-similar receivers.

Roddy White, Age 25 -- Present

Age 25, 16 Games, 30 Receptions, 506 Yards, 16.9 Y/R, 0 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1202 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1382 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 85 Receptions, 1153 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 11 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1389 Yards, 12.1 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1296 Yards, 13 Y/R, 8 TD

Torry Holt, Age 25 -- End of Career

Age 25, 16 Games, 81 Receptions, 1363 Yards, 16.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 91 Receptions, 1302 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 117 Receptions, 1696 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 94 Receptions, 1372 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 29, 14 Games, 102 Receptions, 1331 Yards, 13 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1188 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1189 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 64 Receptions, 796 Yards, 12.4 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 33, 15 Games, 51 Receptions, 722 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 0 TD

Reggie Wayne, Age 25 -- Present

Age 25, 16 Games, 68 Receptions, 838 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 77 Receptions, 1210 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1055 Yards, 12.7 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 86 Receptions, 1310 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 104 Receptions, 1510 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1145 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1264 Yards, 12.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1355 Yards, 12.2 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 960 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 4 TD

These comparisons offer some interesting insights. Holt was an amazingly consistent receiver almost from the time he entered the league until the time he turned 30. After age 30, it's not that Holt wasn't a productive receiver, it's just that by the standard he set prior to that point, he wasn't nearly as good. The range that you could expect Holt to perform at went from 1300-1600 yards in his prime to being in the range of 800-1200 yards after he turned 30.

Reggie Wayne's career has been a little different than Holt's. Wayne took longer to become a number one receiver, likely due to Marvin Harrison's entrenched role with the Colts. But then Wayne has also stayed productive at a later age than Holt did. Wayne had a career high in receptions at age 32. But his dropoff last year looked dramatic. Some amount of Wayne's drop in production was no doubt due to the loss of Peyton Manning, but Wayne also didn't look like he had the ability to separate last year.

For purposes of evaluating White, one thing that I think is worth paying attention to is each receiver's yards per catch. When receivers pass 30 years old and then end up down in the 11-13 yards per catch range, I do think it is a sign that they are having increasing difficulty getting open downfield, and they also aren't able to do as much with the ball in terms of yards after the catch. White is slipping into that 12-13 yards per catch range.

Wes Welker

Welker is the most difficult player to find historical comparisons for. This is probably somewhat related to the same reason that Welker went undrafted after having a 3,000 receiving yard career at Texas Tech. Much of what NFL teams do is engage in pattern matching and Welker doesn't fit any particular pattern of success for NFL wide receivers. He is his own outlier.

Welker's 2011 season was a career year and finding comparables for it are almost impossible. Wide receivers who might be close statistically aren't close to Welker in size. Wide receivers who are close in size aren't close statistically. Marvin Harrison is somewhat close in size and statistics, but a quick glance at either receiver shows that they aren't very similar players. Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Brett Perriman had one season that was close to Welker's 2011, but the rest of Perriman's career wasn't close to Welker.

Welker may actually be a case where analysis of historical comparables leads us to say something that isn't really part of the conversation in fantasy football punditry. I don't know. We don't know any more after looking at a list of Welker comparable receivers because there really aren't any. Perhaps a reasonable method for forecasting Welker's 2012 season would be to look at the years that he's played in New England and then project a slight drop (not a dramatic drop) from the average of the production he usually compiles each year.

Summary

While the comparable players we've looked at haven't given us any concrete conclusions on when our subject players might see an age related drop in production, they have hopefully informed our sense that an age related drop becomes more likely each year that a player is in the league after 30. We have a range to expect a drop and that range is probably from 30 to 33, with a drop becoming increasingly likely each year. When you're drafting your fantasy team this year, perhaps a reasonable way to think about a potential age related decline for Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Wes Welker is this: "It probably won't happen this year, but it might."

I think there is another consideration that should also be added to this conversation. In many cases a top wide receiver is going to remain productive from a fantasy standpoint even as their value to their team might be declining. Older players can't get open as easily. They are hopefully accounting for loss of athleticism with better route running. But in many cases they are playing against defensive backs who are 10 years younger. Older players might require more targets to compile the same amount of production that they accounted for when they were younger. From a fantasy standpoint that is fine for us if we own that player. But from the standpoint of the team that they play on, it's less than ideal.

What can happen then is that the team can start looking at their other options. Consider that when New England cut Randy Moss loose in 2010, they did it amid a chorus of taunts from other teams that Moss had lost a step. While New England had largely stood up for Moss during that chorus of taunts, they were actually throwing the ball elsewhere. When Chad Ochocinco had what was, for him, a terrible season in 2008, Cincinnati had another option in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. When Marvin Harrison experienced his sharp decline, the Colts had another option in Reggie Wayne.

Perhaps a good question to ask regarding this year's older wide receivers is whether they might continue to get the ball even if they've lost a step. Basically, do their teams have any other options? On this count, Andre Johnson certainly seems to be in the best situation. Of the wide receivers we've looked at, he is the one who seems to be his team's only option. Roddy White is in the unfortunate situation of entering the later stages in his career while his team also has one of the NFL's freakish physical specimens in Julio Jones. It's not difficult at all to imagine that if White is not an efficient option for the Falcons, they could increasingly turn to Julio Jones. Wes Welker is in a situation that is not as clear as Andre Johnson, and not as muddy as Roddy White. While the Patriots now have a host of other options, their willingness to use the franchise tag on him speaks to their desire to utilize him this year. Also, while New England has the league's best tight end duo along with the newly added Brandon Lloyd, none fill the same role that Welker does. You could also probably convince me that Welker, who ran a 4.65 40 yard dash coming out of college, never required elite athleticism for his production and he might be the best suited to continue to be productive as his athleticism diminishes.

The last point that I might make here is that being drafted in the top 10 at a position in fantasy football is often a vote of confidence in a player's safety as an option. It's a sign we think they're low risk. But as players pass the age of 30, they are increasingly a higher risk. From 2007 to 2011, there were 34 wide receivers who were less than 30 years old and were also drafted in the top 10 at the position. Of those receivers, only five of them averaged less than nine standard fantasy points during the season they were drafted in the top 10 at wide receiver. But of the 16 wide receivers who were 30 or older, six of them scored less than nine fantasy points per game. You can think of nine fantasy points as being the "over/under" on whether you're going to be legitimately disappointed in your fantasy WR1.

Scoring Less Than Nine Fantasy Points Per Game (Top 10 ADP Among WRs)

30 or Older: 37.5%
Under 30: 14.7%

While we don't have any concrete evidence that any of the receivers we're looking at will fall off this year, it does look like the over 30 group of wide receivers lacks a basic property that we look for when drafting the top 10 at a fantasy position. They lack safety.

If I had to bet what kind of season each of these receivers are going to have, I would probably bet that they will have seasons close to their career averages, but slightly worse. But then there is also the risk that they might run into a wall that some players run into when they pass 30 years old. If that does happen, you'll be sick that you drafted them.

HacheMan · Jun 4, 2012

Daugherty: Fantasy Top Tens
You know Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling and Mike Clay. I, sir, am no @evansilva, @ChrisWesseling or @MikeClayNFL. That doesn’t stop me from getting paid to try to be, however.

Come for the surprises (man this guy who isn’t Wess or Evan really loves receivers who get sued!), stay for the dated cultural references and delight in the fact that this list is evidence that, yes, fantasy football is finally right around the corner.

One more thing while I’ve got you — no list would be complete without some shameless self-promotion: follow me on Twitter @RotoPat. Now to the fun.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers — It’s hard to put Rodgers’ 2011 into words, but consider: 39. That’s how many more touchdowns Rodgers threw than interceptions. That total would have been ninth all time had it simply been his raw touchdown total, and not his TD/INT differential. Alas, his actual total of 45 — compiled in 15 games, no less — was the fifth most in the 91-year history of the NFL. Like the Beatles in the late-60s, Rodgers should only get better in 2012.

2. Matthew Stafford, Lions — With Stafford, it’s simple. In his first full NFL season, he threw for the fifth most yards in league history. Think about that. If anyone is going to knock Rodgers off his pedestal, it’s Clayton Kershaw’s childhood friend.

3. Drew Brees, Saints — With Brees, don’t focus on the fact that he’s lost his coach and one of his top receivers (Robert Meachem). Focus on the fact that 40 percent of the 5,000-yard passing campaigns in NFL history have been posted by Brees in the past four seasons. He’ll get his contract, and he’ll get his numbers.

4. Tom Brady, Patriots — Occupy Tom Brady? We might as well, because Brady is a one-percenter who only got richer this offseason. With underrated deep threat Brandon Lloyd now in the fold alongside Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Brady should face little resistance on his way toward another monster campaign.

5. Cam Newton, Panthers — Let me take you back in time to a place called June 2011. It was then that some were mulling the question “Cam or Gabbert?” One year later, Newton is preparing to follow up the greatest rookie season in league history, while Blaine Gabbert is readying for a fight with Chad Henne. A weak(ish) receiver corps may be the only thing holding Newton back from No. 1 overall status.

6. Eli Manning, Giants — Don’t call it a breakout. Manning’s 2011 was the culmination of years of slow and steady progress. Now with the league’s top receiver duo and a late-game pedigree that would make Joe Montana blush, don’t be surprised if Manning doubles down on his monster ‘11 and ends up closer to 5,000 than 4,000 yards for the second straight season.

7. Philip Rivers, Chargers — We’ll never know if Rivers was playing hurt during his dismal first eight games last season. What we do know is that he was much closer to the Rivers of old in his final eight, posting a 96.8 QB rating to go along with a 2,155 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT ratio. The loss of Vincent Jackson will sting, but an infusion of youth at both receiver and tight end should leave Rivers better off in the long run.

8. Tony Romo, Cowboys — While you dog Romo, he just laughs and remembers two things: Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Throw in Jason Witten, climate-controlled Cowboys Stadium and a creative play-calling HC in Jason Garrett, and you have the recipe for yet another 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown campaign.

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers — Hampered by injuries, Big Ben never quite got in rhythm in 2011. His biggest blow came in the offseason, however, where he lost aggressive, pass happy OC Bruce Arians. Bad news. Flash forward four months, though, and in Arians’ place is Todd Haley, who may be even more aggressive. (Although it's true Haley likes to run more than Arians.) With a healthy Emmanuel Sanders set to rejoin Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and form the league’s most imposing trio of deep threats, Big Ben should have little problem posting 4,000 yards and an 8.0 YPA.

10. Michael Vick, Eagles — Evan and Wess? Two dudes who are vastly smarter than me. They have correctly pointed out that Vick has as much upside as any player in the game. I agree. But with fantasy football often ending up a game of injury roulette, why roll the dice on Vick at a position positively overflowing with elite talent? Vick will light it up when he’s on the field, but at age 32 behind an offensive line adjusting to the loss of All-Pro Jason Peters, will he always be there? I won’t take the chance.

Just Missed: Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler.

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster, Texans — The game’s most dangerous runner is also its most complete back. And, oh yeah, he’s still only 25 with fewer than 1,000 career touches to his name. Fantasy’s top overall player.

2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles — McCoy drew more than one comparison to Barry Sanders last season. Yes, they were loose, but far from insane. Shady isn’t just shady, he’s a one man thunder and lightning duo. He'll earn every penny of his new deal in the Eagles’ explosive offense, at least in 2012.

3. Ray Rice, Ravens — Durable and versatile: there isn’t a sweeter combination for fantasy running backs. Rice doesn’t have quite the flash of Foster or McCoy, but that won’t matter as he’s rolling toward another top-five fantasy campaign.

4. Ryan Mathews, Chargers — If we could turn off injuries Madden style, Mathews might be No. 1 overall. Alas, he’ll have to settle for being 2012’s most obvious candidate to make the leap from “on the verge” to “elite.”

5. Chris Johnson, Titans — CJwhateverK is trying something new this offseason: staying in shape. Gasp! With the Titans boasting an improved line and one of the game’s most dynamic stables of young passing-game talent, Johnson should have little trouble bouncing back from his dismal 2011 and reminding us why he was a consensus top-five pick each of the past two seasons.

6. Matt Forte, Bears — One of the safer bets at a position that’s more unpredictable than Jim Irsay’s Twitter feed, Forte will have to contend with the arrival of short-yardage sponge Michael Bush and passing-game plaything Brandon Marshall. Neither should stop him from racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage for the fifth straight season, however.

7. Darren McFadden, Raiders — You know the DMC story well, but you should also know this: new Raiders OC Greg Knapp is one of the run-happiest dudes in football. DMC is an injury risk, but heck, who isn’t these days? As much upside as anybody in the league.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars — We thought the mileage would finally catch up with MJD last season, but everyone’s favorite human-sized bowling ball proved even more resilient than previously thought. The needle is going to approach “E” at some point, however, and it could very easily be 2012.

9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs — As Charles completes his recovery from a torn ACL, it’s easy to forget that his 2010 was literally historic — his 6.4 yards per carry were second all time only to Jim Brown’s 1963 campaign. Of course, ACL injuries are particularly scary for players who rely on speed. That being said, Charles is far enough removed from shredding his knee that, at the very least, he should be ready to do a pretty good impression of the player who rushed for 1,467 yards in 2010.

10. Trent Richardson, Browns — What we know: Richardson is a physical freak set to inherit an every-down role as a rookie. What we don’t: what the heck he’ll look like in the NFL. Richardson has the skills and situation to climb much higher on this list, but until we actually see it, why take him ahead of any of these fine nine?

Just Missed: Adrian Peterson, Beanie Wells, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch.

Wide Receiver

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions — Is “he’s nicknamed after a ‘sentient robotic lifeform from the planet Cybertron’” enough for you? If not, how about the fact that he’s in his prime, has the game’s top young quarterback slinging him the ball and posted the most receiving yards of any wideout since 2003 last season? The only choice at No. 1.

2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals — Lost in the hand-wringing over the lousy quarterbacks who were throwing Fitz the ball last season was the fact that he posted his third 1,400-yard season in five years. Yes, Fitz is starting to get up in years and still has to deal with Dumb and Dumber under center, but he remains as dominant of a talent as there is in football. An infinitely safe pick.

3. Dez Bryant, Cowboys — You could look at Dez Bryant’s 2011 one of two ways: 1) He completely took over at least one half every week. 2) He completely disappeared for at least one half every week. Dez’s consistency left much to be desired last season, but let’s not forget this was a 22-year-old wideout who’d never had an offseason dominating 50 percent of every game he played in. And, oh, yeah, he posted a 63/928/9 line. Fantasy sports is all about spotting bold leaps before they happen, and Bryant’s will come this fall.

4. Andre Johnson, Texans — A pertinent fact? Johnson has as many surgeries as (regular season) touchdowns since Week 1 last season. He was as dominant as ever when on the field in 2011, however, and that should remain the case in 2012. But Johnson’s suddenly murky injury history is the reason he’s No. 4 and not No. 2.

5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants — Speaking of murk, how about Nicks’ injury situation? The only thing Nicks, the Giants and the media seem to agree on is that he will be ready for Week 1. Seeing as Nicks is one of the game’s most explosive young talents playing for one of its best quarterbacks in one of its best offenses, that’s good enough for me.

6. A.J. Green, Bengals — Question: what do you call a 6-foot-4, 207 pound receiver who caught 65 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns five months after being the No. 4 overall pick of the draft? Oh, he also became the first rookie receiver to make the Pro Bowl since 2003. Answer: the next big thing. Forget Andy Dalton’s arm strength limitations or the Bengals’ brutal schedule. Green is the real deal.

7. Mike Wallace, Steelers — After exploding out of the gate last season, Wallace caught just 29 passes for 393 yards in Pittsburgh’s final eight games. It’s worth noting, but pass up on “60 Minutes” at your own peril. Wallace was dealing with an injured QB for much of that stretch, and new OC Todd Haley has a history of getting his No. 1 receivers huge numbers. Wallace will be elite in 2012.

8. Wes Welker, Patriots — Just the facts, ma’am: Welker has caught at least 110 passes for 1,165 yards four of the past five seasons, with the exception being 2010, where he was rounding back to full health following a torn ACL. Yes, Welker now has to worry about Brandon Lloyd in addition to Gronk and Hernandez, but in a game of chance, Welker posting huge numbers — particularly in PPR leagues — is a veritable certainty.

9. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs — “Underrated” is an overrated concept in professional sports, but how Bowe — who’s averaged 76.5 catches for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns the past two seasons — doesn’t get more love is beyond me. Tyler Palko was the man throwing him the ball for four of those games for crying out loud. Still only 27, Bowe is just getting warmed up.

10. Julio Jones, Falcons — What does breathtaking physicality get you? 54 catches for 959 yards as a rookie despite the fact that you played in just 13 games and had the league’s most targeted receiver as a teammate. Jones’ potential is nearly unlimited, and he should tap considerably more of it as a sophomore.

Just Missed: Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Victor Cruz and Roddy White.

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots — Redskins CB Josh Wilson said it best: Gronk is a gargoyle. He’s also the most dominant player at his position, and despite the pass-catching exploits of Jimmy Graham, it isn’t even all that close. An unstoppable force who’s rarely seen an immovable object he couldn’t destroy.

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints — Aside from “Warren Buffet’s grandson,” there might not be a more enviable title in America than “Drew Brees’ teacher’s pet.” Deservedly so, that’s what Graham became in 2011, which, by the way, was only his third season playing football at the NCAA or above level. 2012 should be beautiful.

3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots — A receiver (and sometimes running back) stuck in a tight end’s body, Hernandez was 31st in the league in receiving yards last season despite appearing in only 14 games and being the second-string tight end on his own team. We know Hernandez’s actual role is more complicated that, but the numbers shouldn’t be this season: they’ll be elite.

4. Jermichael Finley, Packers — Although Finley had 33 percent more drops (12) than touchdowns (8) last season, he was still fantasy’s No. 5 overall tight end. Eager to prove himself after a disappointing campaign, Finley will be elite in Green Bay’s Greatest Show on Tundra.

5. Fred Davis, Redskins — For 12 games last season, Davis dominated on grass. The problem is, he’d smoke it afterward. With his drug issues in the past and Robert Griffin III in his present, however, Davis’ future — including 2012 — is incredibly bright.

6. Vernon Davis, 49ers — A match made in heaven with Jim Harbaugh’s offense, Davis’ furious 2011 finish (including the playoffs, 28 catches for 536 yards and five touchdowns in his final five games) wasn’t an outlier, but a harbinger of things to come.

7. Antonio Gates, Chargers — Gates is getting old, yes, but he’s also as wise as any player in the league. He’s no longer the physical specimen he once was, but certain to be featured with Vincent Jackson now residing on the Gulf Coast, Gates should have at least one more year of high-end TE1 productivity left inside his increasingly creaky body.

8. Jason Witten, Cowboys — Like Gates, Witten is getting old. It tends to happen in a hurry in the NFL, but with Laurent Robinson out of the picture in Big D, Witten should get enough looks in the end zone and red zone to hold TE1 value for at least one more year.

9. Jacob Tamme, Broncos — One of the biggest wildcards in all of fantasy, don’t be surprised if Tamme runs wild as Peyton Manning’s slot man in Denver. He has the hands and situation to surpass 90 catches and 1,000 yards if things break right.

10. Dustin Keller, Jets — Keller won’t be a sexy choice this summer, but as a safety valve in one of the league’s most plodding offenses, he’ll be one of the Jets’ top pass catchers, whether they want him to be or not. A safe, late-round choice at a position many view as an afterthought.

Just Missed: Brandon Pettigrew, Greg Olsen, Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett.

HacheMan · Jun 12, 2012

Minicamp Preview: MJD's Mad
This is the first offseason affected by the NFL's new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Ratified last July -- just before training camp -- the new CBA solidified the structure of the NFL offseason. No series of workouts can stretch beyond four days. Only ten days of OTA practice are allowed per team. All OTAs are voluntary. Each team is allowed just one mandatory minicamp.

And for 24 teams, that minicamp starts today.

It's a pretty big deal.

Coaching staffs will take these three-day camps seriously because it's the last time they'll share a practice field with players until late July. Immediately following minicamp, players will be advised to stay out of the news. But for the next three days, there will be lots and lots of NFL news. Here's what to watch for:

"How's that knee doing?" Injury recoveries.

The typical coachspeak response to any injury-related question goes something like this:

Looks good. We like where he's at and we'll see how he's doing as we move along here.

That, of course, doesn't mean anything. As they relate to injury situations, words out of a coach's mouth are usually on the optimistic side, and rarely on the revealing side. What players actually do on the field is much more telling, because it's a direct indication of the medical staff's evaluation.

The Lions are one of the two-dozen teams opening minicamp Tuesday, and they're a particularly noteworthy club in regard to injuries. Running back Jahvid Best (concussions) did participate in OTAs. Has he been medically cleared for training camp contact yet? Fellow tailback Mikel Leshoure missed his rookie year with a torn left Achilles'. Due to overcompensation on the other leg, he missed OTA time due to a right ankle injury. Promising rookie slot receiver Ryan Broyles tore his left ACL last November. He was limited in OTAs. Will his participation level increase this week?

New offenses and defenses: Scheme change.

Of the 24 clubs holding minicamps this week, six have changed defensive coordinators since last season. Eleven have new bosses on offense.

The Steelers are seemingly the poster children for changing offensive philosophy, due largely to the fact that new OC Todd Haley is a controversial figure. In February, we were encouraged to care that Haley hadn't met quarterback Ben Roethlisberger yet. Tight with outgoing coordinator Bruce Arians, Big Ben has on multiple occasions voiced hints of frustration with the new system.

Aside from irresponsibly reading into public comments, it will admittedly be difficult to tell whether Roethlisberger has warmed to the new offense in Pittsburgh. Big Ben wants to throw the football. The fans and owners want to run. Haley has a history of doing both. This is a situation to monitor.

To show or not to show? Disgruntled running backs.

The Ravens and Bears retained their running backs with franchise tags, and both teams begin mandatory minicamp on Tuesday. Because Ray Rice and Matt Forte haven't signed their one-year, $7.7 million tenders, they aren't obligated to show. Don't expect to see either player this week.

In Jacksonville and Denver, Maurice Jones-Drew and Willis McGahee both asked for raises this offseason. While McGahee's contract dispute has been less publicized than Jones-Drew's, it's fair to wonder whether Denver's primary back might use this opportunity to make his frustration more known. The Jags won't satisfy Jones-Drew's wishes, and fully expect him on the field this week.

It's worth noting that players who skip mandatory minicamp are subject to up to $60,000 in team-imposed fines. The max fine is $10,000 for the first day, $20,000 for the second, and $30,000 for the third.

UPDATE: Jones-Drew is skipping the minicamp in a strong sign that he's willing to hold out of training camp, and perhaps even into the season. The fact that Jones-Drew is willing to sacrifice a fairly large sum of money suggests he'll play hardball. GM Gene Smith stated adamantly Monday that the club won't satisfy Jones-Drew's contract demands. This one could get ugly.

The progress of first-round quarterbacks.

Andrew Luck's only offseason participation thus far occurred at the Colts' May 4-6 rookie camp. Due to Stanford's late graduation, he hasn't done any full-squad stuff. This three-day minicamp will not only be Luck's first performance in front of fans, it will be his first practice time with Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. It's also a first for new TE Coby Fleener. Both rookies missed OTAs.

From an offseason standpoint, Robert Griffin III is well ahead of the curve. He's already practiced 13 times as a Redskin, and 10 times in the full-squad setting.

Four quarterbacks were drafted in this year's first round. Ryan Tannehill, the No. 8 overall pick, was the third signal caller off the board. The Dolphins are currently holding OTA practices, but their minicamp doesn't take place until next Tuesday.

In Cleveland, No. 22 pick Brandon Weeden is already taking the bulk of first-team reps over Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace. The Browns had their minicamp last week, but open a four-day series of OTA practices on Tuesday.

Depth chart movement: Camp battle updates.

These are still no-contact practices, and starting lineups won't be determined until August. But because there is a six-week gap between these workouts and the next time coaches and players get together, teams will look for lasting impressions. Coaches want an idea of how their offenses and defenses will look when they start training camp.

Keep an eye on the receiver battle in Chicago, opposite Brandon Marshall. While Devin Hester has again been the subject of springtime hype, rookie Alshon Jeffery's offseason has been quiet.

The tailback battle in Tampa Bay should be fierce. First-round pick Doug Martin missed some OTAs with a hamstring tweak, but he will begin closing in on incumbent LeGarrette Blount soon. Seventh-rounder Michael Smith is an intriguing prospect with sub-4.4 speed and toughness inside the tackles. Martin figures to be the Opening Day starter. Could Smith push Blount to be No. 2?

In New England, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are fighting for first-team work. Vereen got a bunch of it at early-spring workouts. The Colts' wide receiver position opposite Reggie Wayne is wide open. There are battles raging at No. 2 wideout and running back in Cincinnati. With Rice unlikely to attend Ravens minicamp, will third-round pick Bernard Pierce get the first-team reps?

HacheMan · Jun 12, 2012

Ochocinco no fantasy factor in Miami

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

You may recall that last season I was pretty skeptical about Chad Ochocinco coming to the New England Patriots. Did I think he'd catch 15 passes all season? No, I'm not quite that clairvoyant. But despite the presence of Tom Brady and one of the NFL's most aggressive passing offenses, I declared The Ocho basically unownable in standard-sized leagues, because in '10 (while he still labored for the Cincinnati Bengals), I saw Ochocinco shying away from contact and losing at least a step from his straight-ahead speed. Now The Ocho heads to the Miami Dolphins, a team that's certainly in need of receiving help. But I still don't think it will go well.

I know the guy is charming in interviews. I know he's someone who makes the NFL fun. And I don't think he's completely cooked, skillswise. But it's just very, very hard to believe that the Dolphins possess the situation and pieces to make a fading 34-year-old player suddenly fantasy-relevant again. I don't see it.

First off, Ochocinco has never run in the kind of West Coast offense that Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman will bring to Miami. It's a scheme that requires discipline and precise route-running, especially for wideouts who don't possess blazing speed. For instance, there isn't much freelancing in the Green Bay Packers offense that Philbin just left, is there? We're not talking about the Brady-esque, "check-with-me," option-oriented pass patterns that the Pats tried to get out of Ochocinco last year, but it's still a completely new philosophy and playbook, and I have sincere doubts about The Ocho's willingness to be a pupil and a Twitter celebrity.

And perhaps more important, the cast of characters that'll be throwing the ball in Miami this year figures to be a rotation of mediocrity. With Matt Moore, rookie Ryan Tannehill and maybe veteran David Garrard, it's a rogues' gallery of so-so-ness. I know, I know, Moore led the Dolphins to a 6-3 finish last year, which to me only proves (for the second time) that if you want a guy to mop up after a completely hopeless start to a season, Moore is your guy. (He did the same thing for the '09 Carolina Panthers.) I have a strong suspicion that the Dolphins will struggle this year and that Tannehill will get significant playing time. And rookie QBs are rarely good for anyone in fantasy football.

Sure, there's a chance I'm wrong about all this and Ochocinco is ready to rededicate himself and the Fins are set to become Packers South. With Brandon Marshall gone, there are zero established NFL WRs other than Ocho on this team, so not only does EightFive have a chance to make this roster, he could wind up in the starting lineup. (Davone Bess is the slot man, Brian Hartline is probably a starter on one side, and Ocho will compete with the likes of Clyde Gates and Legedu Naanee on the other side.) But I'm sorry, even if Ochocinco is in the starting lineup (and not cut before Week 1), his upside is terribly limited. At this point, I won't rank him among my top 70 fantasy WRs for '12. In my opinion, he can stay undrafted in all but the deepest leagues.

HacheMan · Jun 17, 2012

Value Based Drafting: Part II

Earlier in the week we started to look at Value Based Drafting by covering some basics about what VBD is and how you can create a baseline that will allow you to compare players at different positions. If you haven't read that piece, it's probably pretty important that you go read it now before going any further in this article. In this article I'm going to expand into using VBD, which also requires a pretty healthy discussion of forecasting.

First though, some readers emailed me to ask how I accounted for the Flex position in coming up with the baselines. I've actually updated the original post to explain, but it's worth going over again. Forgetting about Flex for a minute, the baselines for RB and WR end up being RB35 and WR29. That gets both positions to 408 games. You can tell from those numbers that it takes more players to fill out the RB slots because RBs are less reliable in terms of how many games they play. Then when you add in the Flex requirement, it ends up being filled mostly with WRs, but you go to WR44 and RB44 to fill out the Flex position. It's pure coincidence that it happens to be the same number for both positions. But RB44 and WR44 end up being the baseline for those positions when Flex is accounted for because it takes all of those players to fill out the 408 games for each position, along with the 204 games for the Flex.

A Word About Predicting the Future

After you've established your baseline, you have to come up with some projections in order to rank your players. This is at least as important as coming up with the baseline. Ok, it's actually probably a lot more important than coming up with the baseline so I'm going to spend a little time talking about forecasting.

There are three important things that we should never forget when we're talking about projections. First, we're essentially trying to predict the future. That's an inherently difficult task. Don't be tricked into thinking that the recent past could have easily been predicted just because we can look back on it today and talk ourselves into believing that it was obvious all along. Prediction is a difficult game.

The second thing to keep in mind is that we should plan for reversion to the mean. Remember Peyton Manning's 2004 season when he threw for 49 touchdowns? He threw 28 the next year. That's really close to being half of the 2004 total. Remember Chris Johnson's 2000 yard season in 2009? He ran for 1300 yards the next year. After Randy Moss' 23 touchdown year he caught 11 the next year. The point is, reversion to the mean happens and a lot of the time we won't be able to see the causes of the mean reversion ahead of time. This might sound obvious, but we're going to be faced with a similar problem this year when we look at the draft board and see about 5 QBs coming off of what were all essentially record breaking years.

The last thing to keep in mind regarding projections is that oftentimes the biggest fantasy seasons from the year before were really just guys who managed to stay healthy all year. If we take the guys who managed to stay healthy all of last year and pencil them in for a few missed games this year, and then take the guys who missed a few games last year and pencil them in for a little better luck in the injury department, those small changes will have a pretty dramatic impact on our projections. Here's a hypothetical that might make this more concrete for you. Imagine if Tom Brady had lost Rob Gronkowski for a few games last year and then imagine that Wes Welker had played most of the year at 70% health. Now imagine that Brady missed a game due to injury and then played through a few others with that same injury. What would his numbers have looked like? What I've just described is pretty close to what actually did happen to Tony Romo last year. The details might have been a little off, but I'm sure you can see that luck (or randomness) had a pretty big impact on the difference between Brady and Romo last year. When we create our projections we have to acknowledge that luck and randomness play a part in football.

Similarity Based Forecasts

One of my favorite ways to project players is by using a similarity method. I take a player like Cam Newton, look at players who had seasons similar to Newton's 2011 campaign (Daunte Culpepper for instance), and then just look at what those players did the following year. This is a method that is similar to the way that Pandora chooses music, except that instead of looking for attributes like vocals and percussion that songs might have in common, I'm looking for things like yards per attempt, touchdowns, and rushing yards that can be used to demonstrate QB similarity. I also compare players on things like height, weight and age. A similarity based comparison does one critical thing in creating forecasts and that is account for some reversion to the mean. But because we can actually see players who were similar to the players we're studying, similarity comparisons have a powerful psychological effect as well. They make the idea of mean reversion real because we can see actual examples.

These things are always easier to visualize, so let's do that. Below is a table that contains a list of receivers who had similar seasons to Jordy Nelson's 2011 season.

<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player</th><th>Year</th><th>Tm</th><th>Age</th><th>Weight</th><th>Height</th><th>Y/G</th><th>TD/G</th><th>YPR</th></tr><tr><td>Jordy Nelson</td><td>2011</td><td>GB</td><td>26</td><td>215</td><td>75</td><td>78.94 </td><td>0.94 </td><td>18.57</td></tr><tr><td>-------------------------</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>PATRICK JEFFERS</td><td>1999</td><td>CAR</td><td>26</td><td>217</td><td>75</td><td>83.23</td><td>0.92</td><td>17.17</td></tr><tr><td>TERRELL OWENS</td><td>1998</td><td>SF</td><td>25</td><td>226</td><td>75</td><td>68.56</td><td>0.88</td><td>16.37</td></tr><tr><td>RANDY MOSS</td><td>2000</td><td>MIN</td><td>23</td><td>215</td><td>76</td><td>89.81</td><td>0.94</td><td>18.66</td></tr><tr><td>DWAYNE BOWE</td><td>2010</td><td>KC</td><td>26</td><td>221</td><td>74</td><td>77.47</td><td>1.00</td><td>16.14</td></tr><tr><td>BRAYLON EDWARDS</td><td>2007</td><td>CLE</td><td>24</td><td>211</td><td>75</td><td>80.56</td><td>1.00</td><td>16.11</td></tr><tr><td>MICHAEL WESTBROOK</td><td>1999</td><td>WAS</td><td>27</td><td>220</td><td>75</td><td>74.44</td><td>0.56</td><td>18.32</td></tr><tr><td>RANDY MOSS</td><td>1998</td><td>MIN</td><td>21</td><td>215</td><td>76</td><td>82.06</td><td>1.06</td><td>19.03</td></tr><tr><td>MICHAEL JACKSON</td><td>1996</td><td>BAL</td><td>27</td><td>195</td><td>76</td><td>80.07</td><td>0.93</td><td>15.80</td></tr><tr><td>KENNY BRITT</td><td>2010</td><td>TEN</td><td>22</td><td>215</td><td>75</td><td>77.50</td><td>0.90</td><td>18.45</td></tr><tr><td>HERMAN MOORE</td><td>1994</td><td>DET</td><td>25</td><td>210</td><td>76</td><td>73.31</td><td>0.69</td><td>16.29</td></tr><tr><td>JAVON WALKER</td><td>2004</td><td>GB</td><td>26</td><td>220</td><td>75</td><td>86.38</td><td>0.75</td><td>15.53</td></tr><tr><td>ROD SMITH</td><td>1997</td><td>DEN</td><td>27</td><td>200</td><td>73</td><td>73.75</td><td>0.75</td><td>16.86</td></tr><tr><td>MILES AUSTIN</td><td>2009</td><td>DAL</td><td>25</td><td>215</td><td>75</td><td>88.00</td><td>0.73</td><td>16.30</td></tr><tr><td>ERIC MOULDS</td><td>1998</td><td>BUF</td><td>25</td><td>210</td><td>74</td><td>85.50</td><td>0.56</td><td>20.42</td></tr><tr><td>JAKE REED</td><td>1995</td><td>MIN</td><td>28</td><td>216</td><td>75</td><td>72.94</td><td>0.56</td><td>16.21</td></tr><tr><td>REGGIE WAYNE</td><td>2004</td><td>IND</td><td>26</td><td>198</td><td>73</td><td>75.63</td><td>0.75</td><td>15.71</td></tr><tr><td>JAKE REED</td><td>1996</td><td>MIN</td><td>29</td><td>216</td><td>75</td><td>82.50</td><td>0.44</td><td>18.33</td></tr><tr><td>ANDRE RISON</td><td>1993</td><td>ATL</td><td>26</td><td>188</td><td>73</td><td>77.63</td><td>0.94</td><td>14.44</td></tr><tr><td>JERRY RICE</td><td>1991</td><td>SF</td><td>29</td><td>200</td><td>74</td><td>75.38</td><td>0.88</td><td>15.08</td></tr><tr><td>DERRICK ALEXANDER</td><td>1996</td><td>BAL</td><td>25</td><td>195</td><td>74</td><td>73.27</td><td>0.60</td><td>17.73</td></tr><tr><td>CARL PICKENS</td><td>1994</td><td>CIN</td><td>24</td><td>206</td><td>74</td><td>75.13</td><td>0.73</td><td>15.87</td></tr><tr><td>Averages</td><td> </td><td> </td><td>25.5 </td><td>210.0 </td><td>74.7 </td><td>78.7 </td><td>0.8 </td><td>16.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

You can see that even while some of these players might differ from Nelson in one area or another, as a composite, they are very close to Nelson. Then I look at what these players did in the year after they were similar to Nelson. Those results are shown in the following table (with some names missing for guys who didn't record any stats in the following year).


Jordy Nelson 2011 Similar Receivers – Year 2

<table style="width: 374px;" class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th width="173">Player</th><th width="58">Y/G</th><th width="47">TD/G</th><th width="95">YPR</th></tr><tr><td width="173">TERRELL OWENS</td><td width="58">53.9</td><td width="47">0.3</td><td width="95">12.6</td></tr><tr><td width="173">RANDY MOSS</td><td width="58">77.1</td><td width="47">0.6</td><td width="95">15.0</td></tr><tr><td width="173">DWAYNE BOWE</td><td width="58">72.4</td><td width="47">0.3</td><td width="95">14.3</td></tr><tr><td width="173">BRAYLON EDWARDS</td><td width="58">54.6</td><td width="47">0.2</td><td width="95">15.9</td></tr><tr><td width="173">RANDY MOSS</td><td width="58">88.3</td><td width="47">0.7</td><td width="95">17.7</td></tr><tr><td width="173">MICHAEL JACKSON</td><td width="58">57.4</td><td width="47">0.3</td><td width="95">13.3</td></tr><tr><td width="173">KENNY BRITT</td><td width="58">96.3</td><td width="47">1.0</td><td width="95">17.0</td></tr><tr><td width="173">HERMAN MOORE</td><td width="58">105.4</td><td width="47">0.9</td><td width="95">13.7</td></tr><tr><td width="173">ROD SMITH</td><td width="58">76.4</td><td width="47">0.4</td><td width="95">14.2</td></tr><tr><td width="173">MILES AUSTIN</td><td width="58">65.1</td><td width="47">0.4</td><td width="95">15.1</td></tr><tr><td width="173">ERIC MOULDS</td><td width="58">71.0</td><td width="47">0.5</td><td width="95">15.3</td></tr><tr><td width="173">JAKE REED</td><td width="58">82.5</td><td width="47">0.4</td><td width="95">18.3</td></tr><tr><td width="173">REGGIE WAYNE</td><td width="58">70.3</td><td width="47">0.3</td><td width="95">12.7</td></tr><tr><td width="173">JAKE REED</td><td width="58">71.1</td><td width="47">0.4</td><td width="95">16.7</td></tr><tr><td width="173">ANDRE RISON</td><td width="58">77.7</td><td width="47">0.6</td><td width="95">13.4</td></tr><tr><td width="173">JERRY RICE</td><td width="58">75.1</td><td width="47">0.6</td><td width="95">14.3</td></tr><tr><td width="173">DERRICK ALEXANDER</td><td width="58">67.3</td><td width="47">0.6</td><td width="95">15.5</td></tr><tr><td width="173">CARL PICKENS</td><td width="58">77.1</td><td width="47">1.1</td><td width="95">12.5</td></tr><tr><td width="173">Averages </td><td width="58">74.4 </td><td width="47">0.5 </td><td width="95">14.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

Overall, the group performed extremely well on the year after they were similar to Nelson 2011. But one glaring difference is that their touchdowns were down fairly dramatically. When we're thinking of drafting Nelson this year, it might be helpful to remember that he could be in for the same sort of mean reversion that affected Dwayne Bowe and Miles Austin in recent years. They were still decent receivers, they just didn't put in back to back years of really high touchdown totals. This is the kind of information that using similarity based comparisons in our forecasts yields.

I've spent a lot of time talking about forecasting because it's at least as important as creating a VBD baseline. But let's move on to actually applying those forecasts so that we have some actionable fantasy intelligence.

I went ahead and ran projections for the top 44 WRs and RBs, along with the top 15 QBs and TEs. Then I matched up those projections with ADP to see what ranges of positions offered relative value. Here are the broad stroke takeaways from that exercise:

My similarity based projections don't assign a lot of value to the top QBs this year. They don't project for a high enough value over the baseline 15th QB, in order to justify their draft position. Instead, the highest relative value for QB is in the QB7 range. I could actually see a draft strategy that focuses on trying to pick up Tony Romo in that range in lieu of spending an early pick on one of last year's top QBs. Romo actually shares a number of traits with the top tier of QBs, including a completion percentage over 65%. But with Romo you get the "bad luck" discount based on the numerous injuries that affected the Cowboys' offense last year. Another reasonable strategy would be to try to get Michael Vick in this range as he was actually essentially equal to Cam Newton last year except for rushing touchdowns.
Most of the top players at a position do not offer excess value because they are projected highly, and also cost a high pick. Perhaps the only exception is Rob Gronkowski, who I have recently called a reasonable approximation of Calvin Johnson (Gronk is also a few years younger). This is an area where changing the TE baseline from TE8 to TE 15 is meaningful. That means that Gronk is worth relatively more.
On a relative basis, the range of WRs that offer the highest value compared to where they're being drafted are between WR10 and WR20. Wide receiver is a position that I think will be fairly flat this year, which is to say that there won't be a huge difference between the very top WRs and the starter level WRs. The NFL is now a "spread it around" league. But at the WR position, the WR10-WR20 range does appear to offer the most relative value. This is the range of WRs that includes Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Demaryius Thomas and Hakeem Nicks. That's a pretty attractive group and I could see bypassing the WRs in the top 10 and taking two guys from the WR10-WR20 group.
Despite the relative devaluing of the RB position, my similarity projections still favor going RB early. This is not so much of a vote of confidence for the early RBs. Outside of the top four guys, there are a lot of question marks. This is a comment on how terrifying the guys at the back end of the RB position are. Remember that we know that the approximate demand for RBs is equal to about the top 44 players at that position. The guys who are currently going in the RB35-RB44 range are guys who if they got lucky and someone got injured, might still be in timeshare backfields. It might be scary to go RB early this year, but it might be a lot scarier to wait.
You now have the baselines needed to calculate your own values based on whatever projections you might favor. I also realize that some people play in leagues that don't follow the standard scoring that my baselines were created from. I'll try to work on putting together a spreadsheet or a form that will allow people to calculate baselines for leagues that might have different roster requirements. When I have that done I'll update this post with a link and also send it out through Twitter.

If you're still awake after going through a lot of material on the topic of Value Based Drafting, I do think it's important to note that a fantasy draft shouldn't be boiled down to one number. Ideally you want to use the information that VBD gives you to go through various alternatives for your draft. You want it to tell you what the relative costs of waiting on a position are. If you decide that you're in love with Aaron Rodgers, you can still consult VBD to see what kind of values will be available at the other positions later. Use Value Based Drafting as another tool in your arsenal. Don't completely farm out your fantasy draft to one idea.

HacheMan · Jun 17, 2012

Lions' Best, Leshoure loaded with upside

Eric Karabell

I'm guessing many of you don't know much about Detroit Lions running back Mikel Leshoure. Perhaps you'll click on his name to look at his 2011 stats, but you won't find any. Leshoure was a second-round pick by the Lions in 2011, and he tore his left Achilles tendon in August, negating his rookie season. He claims he's healthy now and ready to contribute, but he won't be helping the Lions or any fantasy owners the first two weeks of the 2012 season after being suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

So basically, you might be wondering why a fellow in trouble with the law and health matters is worthy of discussion in June. I'll tell you: It's because the Illinois product has skills, and unlike the speedier, electrifying Jahvid Best, I'm not particularly concerned about his long-term health as it relates to producing fantasy relevance. Best could be a top-10 running back if not for concussion woes, but they clearly still exist, and the team's depth must be explored for fantasy purposes.

<offer>Leshoure is no guarantee to get opportunity. For one, Best really could be one of the "best," but he has to stay on the field. Last season he delivered a pair of 20-plus-point fantasy performances in the first five weeks, but soon after that he was gone. Best missed 10 games, and it wasn't exactly his first concussion. Best's college career at Cal was also affected by them. I've initially ranked Best just outside the top-30 running backs for this season, likely worse than most, but would be willing to select him earlier depending on the makeup of my team. The upside is clear. If I have significant depth or three reliable, consistent running backs on the roster, or if it's a point-per-reception format, I'll take Best earlier. He's talented when he gets into open field, catches many passes and is certainly fun to watch.</offer>

Leshoure is a bigger, stronger running back, checking in at 6-feet tall and at least 225 pounds, and his draft-day selection was an indication the Lions wanted, like so many teams these days and to the detriment of fantasy rosters, a tandem for the Matthew Stafford handoffs, screen passes and goal-line carries. Then again, Kevin Smith had his moments -- well, most came in Week 11 -- and he's still around. It's a bit of a crowded situation, and this happens to be the NFL team that threw the football more than any other during the 2011 season. I suspect Stafford will attempt more than 600 passes (only three quarterbacks did in 2011) yet again.

There's opportunity here, as Best and Smith are hardly the most reliable options in terms of health. Leshoure is risky, too. As ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert noted, Leshoure is young, but he's running out of chances due to his off-field indiscretions. However, two games really isn't a lot, especially when one of them is against a top defense (the San Francisco 49ers). And who knows whether Best or Smith will be healthy in Week 3. The Lions might not produce a 1,000-yard running back with Stafford throwing most of the time, but New Orleans Saints passer Drew Brees was just as active, and his offense managed to finish sixth in the league in rushing yards. Of course, the Saints have Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and even Chris Ivory. The Lions do not. However, I don't think it means the Lions can't run the football effectively. They just don't have the personnel. Perhaps with Leshoure they will.

Leshoure has been participating in mini-camp, taking handoffs in drills and catching passes, so the team believes he will be ready to play by September. And Leshoure seems to realize his decision-making needs to improve, telling reporters he has learned from his mistakes and feels good. Coach Jim Schwartz was positive about his on-field exploits.

"I think the thing that was most encouraging about it was when the ball went in his hand, he didn't think about it," Schwartz told the Detroit Free Press. "You could see, we ran him left, we ran him right, he was making cuts off of defenders, he was making cuts as they appeared, and he was a running back. He wasn't doing rehab, he wasn't doing foot patterns, he wasn't controlling the action, he was reacting to defenders."

I currently have Leshoure ranked third among Lions running backs, but each of them made my top 50. Updates on Best's health could easily change his and Leshoure's summer rank. It's difficult to trust any of them as fantasy starters this season, but Leshoure could be the healthiest and since he's without an NFL carry, it's time people learn his name. He's got a decent shot to be relevant and allow a dynamic offense to become a bit more balanced.

HacheMan · Jun 18, 2012

Re-Watching Julio, Cam, Locker
Finishing touches are currently being put on the 2012 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide. One of the more arduous tasks that goes into the guide's creation is writing the Player Profiles. We've already written up 60 quarterbacks, 75 running backs, 100 receivers, and 50 tight ends.

Here's an example of a Player Profile from our 2011 Draft Guide:

Matthew Stafford

2010: Star-crossed Stafford's luck ran out again in his second NFL season with twin throwing shoulder injuries, the first suffered on a Week 1 Julius Peppers sack and the second in Week 9. Both were Grade 3 separations that led to year-ending surgery. Stafford was terrific in between, lighting up Washington for four TDs in Week 8 and Darrelle Revis' Jets for 240 yards, two scores, and no picks. Stafford has the strongest arm in football and is highly aggressive, sometimes to a fault. Lions coordinator Scott Linehan's offense is shotgun- and pass-heavy, and a fantasy owner's dream. Only the Colts and Saints threw more often in 2010. Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton's passing statistics combined to rank as the would-be No. 7 fantasy QB.

What's Changed: Stafford had surgery on January 21 and was letting bombs rip by May player-only workouts. He's still just 23 years old, younger than rookies Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. The Lions used two second-round picks on skill position players, Titus Young to stretch defenses vertically and Mikel Leshoure to kill the clock in fourth quarters. The "risk" with Stafford, of course, is that he's missed 19 games through two NFL seasons. Teammate Zack Follett even described Stafford as a "China Doll" in the winter, though Follett later retracted the statement.

Outlook: It's simple. If you think Stafford is going to get injured again, don't draft him. As a fantasy pick, he's for owners looking to hit 500-foot homeruns. Stafford has the talent, weapons, and offensive system to be this year's No. 1 fantasy QB. He'll bust if he goes back on the shelf.

Some background

This year, I wrote up all of the quarterbacks and most of the wide receivers. Chris Wesseling did the running backs. Mike Clay handled tight ends. In order to better prepare for my assignments, I went back and watched two games on three particular players who possess lofty fantasy football ceilings and will surely be the subject of frequent pre-draft debate.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones

For game review, I chose Jones' two most heavily-targeted appearances. They were Week 4 at Seattle (15 targets) and Week 16 at New Orleans (14). This worked out nicely because it gave me a chance to examine one early-season and one late-season game. Jones was a rookie in 2011, so it forced me to keep an eye out for improvements over the course of the year.

The first play that really stuck out was a 45-yard bomb down the left sideline, with Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner in tight coverage. Matt Ryan's underthrown deep ball died a bit at the end of its trajectory. Yet Jones contorted his body back to the quarterback to secure Ryan's pass in a two-handed basket while maintaining full stride throughout his route. Body control along the sideline can be a difference-making trait for a deep threat. And that play suggests Jones has it in spades.

After watching the two games, my mind wandered back to Jones' days at Alabama. He wasn't a deep threat for the Crimson Tide. Jones was primarily a possession receiver, doing his damage in the short to intermediate and relying on run-after-catch physicality to rack up yards. The Falcons used Jones as a vertical, split end receiver, and he's playing much faster than he did in college. He's already a complete NFL player. I think he compares favorably to early-career Terrell Owens.

Other quick takeaways from the Falcons game reviews:

** Michael Turner had more short-area burst early in the season than he did against New Orleans in Week 16. Statistics support the notion that Turner faded in the second half of the year.

** Roddy White was largely a possession receiver in both games, exploiting defensive backs' "off" coverage and reeling in short catches. Jones was the Falcons' deep threat, although he made more plays at the intermediate level in the late-season game than he did in the early-year contest.

** I don't think Matt Ryan's arm strength will prove a major deterrent for his long-term outlook, but it's about league average -- and no better -- among entrenched NFL starters. His velocity on 17- to 22-yard digs can be inconsistent, and Ryan's intermediate passes have a tendency to float.

** Jacquizz Rodgers is 5-foot-6, 196, so he's probably going to need some special qualities in order to make it as more than a change-of-pace back in the NFL. Rodgers ran a pretty wheel route before hauling in a 31-yard touchdown against Carolina, but his run skills looked ordinary to me.


Panthers quarterback Cam Newton

Newton shredded secondaries early in the season, passing for 290 or more yards four times in the first eight games. He didn't hit 290 in any of the final eight. So I picked two late-season games -- Week 14 versus Atlanta and Week 16 versus Tampa Bay -- to see what happened.

The first thing that stood out was Carolina's easy-to-watch offense. OC Rob Chudzinski ran a ton of read-option, with Cam in the shotgun making a split-second decision to either give the football to DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart, or run it himself. On the vast majority of read-option plays, Newton let his back do the dirty work. Whether it was Williams, Stewart, or Newton taking the carry, the Panthers broke off many chunk-yardage plays. This wasn't a boring running offense.

Newton has an absolute rocket arm, and it's his greatest attribute. It's the trait that instills the fear of god into defenses -- not his running ability. Cam isn't the most accurate thrower in the short to intermediate, but he tosses a powerful, picturesque deep ball. And Newton isn't the least bit afraid to challenge deep. He'll rip it long whenever receivers get open. His eyes are constantly downfield.

I think Newton's passing stats tailed off down the stretch because Steve Smith, Legedu Naanee, and Brandon LaFell simply weren't creating enough separation down the football field. Opponents were deathly afraid of Smith, using bracket coverage to keep him contained. Naanee was the weakest skill-position player on the field in both games I reviewed. A stiff, straight-line guy with little post-catch wiggle and zero vertical tools, Naanee was the only difficult-to-watch Panther.

What is clear: Newton is a dominant, game-breaking talent. Even when his wide receivers failed to create bomb opportunities, Newton's playmaking ability shined through. He accounted for six all-purpose touchdowns and 548 total yards in the two games, and Carolina scored 71 points. Newton is Roethlisberger-like with his ability to break free from two-arm tackles and fire off rocket balls after quickly setting his feet. There isn't a more exciting young player in football right now.

More Panthers takeaways:

** Even late in the season at age 32, Smith was playing on springs. He torched (mostly) Dunta Robinson for 125 yards on six catches in the Falcons game and ripped off 23 yards on a reverse against Tampa. There's plenty of liveliness left in Smith's legs.

** DeAngelo Williams looked better than I expected. Stewart has developed into a superior back, but Williams is still a high-quality runner, particularly when he reaches the perimeter.

** Losing Naanee should be addition by subtraction in Carolina. LaFell enters the starting lineup, and the Panthers will insert 6-foot-3, 216-pound speedster David Gettis as the No. 3 receiver.

** I don't think LaFell is quite gifted enough to emerge as a top-25 NFL wideout, but he can haul in passes Naanee couldn't and appears to be mastering Chudzinski's scheme. LaFell played the slot and outside against Atlanta and Tampa. His large catch radius was evident on an errant pass by Newton in the Bucs game. LaFell extended himself high above his head to secure the throw, then beat everyone to the house for a 91-yard score. He's also comfortable making plays in traffic.

Titans quarterback Jake Locker

Locker didn't start any games as a rookie, but he played extensively off the bench in three. I watched two (Week 11 at Atlanta, Week 14 vs. New Orleans) and saw an exciting young QB with a rare combination of tools. I also saw a passer who struggled with accuracy outside the numbers.

The scouting report might give you déjà vu, because it's awfully similar to the "book" on Locker coming out of Washington. He possesses a power arm and can make any throw with ideal velocity. Locker loses nothing off his fastball when he's outside the pocket. He rips it on the run.

He's also a threat for big gains on the ground. Locker has legitimately dangerous speed and some elusiveness as a scrambler. He isn't easy to tackle. Inside the pocket, I thought Locker stood tall and was cool for the most part. He loved to challenge deep, and wasn't out there taking checkdowns in the Falcons game, even with the defense playing prevent sitting on a lead.

Overall, Locker's ball placement was erratic, and that led to stalled drives in the Saints game. His down-to-down accuracy was head-scratchingly shaky. Locker would look like an elite passer on one play, and Kyle Boller on the next.

My comparison to Locker is a young Donovan McNabb. His accuracy is an issue, but he has natural playmaking ability. The Titans' coaching staff seems to believe Locker's ball placement can improve with technical changes. But if it doesn't, can Locker's god-given skill level compensate?

More Titans takeaways:

** Matt Hasselbeck started both games I watched. (I didn't fast forward to Locker in relief.) The difference between the two was stark. While Hasselbeck still stands comfortably in the pocket amid oncoming pass rushers, his throws lacked any hint of zip. In the Falcons game, Atlanta defenders got their hands on seemingly every other Hasselbeck pass because they floated through the air and were easy to jump. Late in the season at least, Hasselbeck was a short-ball thrower only.

** I remember writing late last season that I thought Chris Johnson's struggles were on him. He didn't seem to be playing hard. After re-watching the Saints and Falcons games, I'll stand by that evaluation. Johnson ran soft and accelerated only when he saw clear lanes. He was tackled too easily. He was also clearly frustrated by the inability of Tennessee's offensive line to open holes. Johnson wasn’t out there giving full effort snap by snap.

** A few things to remember on Locker: He played without a running game in his three relief appearances. He also didn't have Kenny Britt. Nate Washington was Locker's best receiver.

HacheMan · Jun 19, 2012

Examining Offensive Personnel
If you were familiar with my work prior to my first contribution here at Rotoworld, it’s likely that you’re aware of my other home, ProFootballFocus.com. At PFF, our team of analysts watch and chart every player on every play of every game (hey, that’s our tagline). Anyways, one of the most interesting items we chart is personnel packages on both sides of the ball.

Knowing which teams put a second tight end or a third wide receiver on the field most/least often is key in determining sleeper/bust value, especially for rookies and free agent acquisitions.

Today, I’m going to examine the teams on the two extremes of utilizing three-plus wide receiver and two-plus tight end packages during the 2011 season. I’ll take personnel changes, including those at the coaching level, into account, of course, so that we can find ourselves a few players deserving of upgrades and downgrades in our preliminary 2012 fantasy rankings.

Note: The data here refers to the player’s official roster position – not where he is lined up on the field. For example, Aaron Hernandez is listed as a tight end on the Patriots’ roster. The data in this article charts him as a tight end, even when he’s split wide or in the backfield. Remember, we’re focusing on personnel packages, not necessarily formations.

Three-plus wide receiver packages

The Leaders:

1. Buffalo Bills (77 percent of snaps) – The Bills dominated this category a season ago, spreading their pass-catchers around more than any other team. Often going without even a single tight end, Buffalo had four wide receivers on the field a league-high 32 percent of the time. The next closest was Chicago at 16 percent. With Donald Jones working more in the slot this offseason – a position already occupied by David Nelson – it’s fair to expect a similar plan of attack in 2012. Steve Johnson and Derek Hagan will see most of their snaps out wide, with Jones and Nelson in the slot. Third-round pick T.J. Graham and finally-healthy Marcus Easley will push for snaps, as well. Because it’s a heavy rotation of such underwhelming talent, only Johnson is worth fantasy consideration.

2. Indianapolis Colts (63 percent) – It’s a completely new regime in Indianapolis and there’s a good chance the Colts will be on the opposite end of this list next season. Wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez are out, while rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are in. The Colts figure to keep their rookies on the field quite often, especially with only T.Y. Hilton, Donnie Avery, and Lavon Brazill on the wide receiver depth chart behind Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (59 percent) – Considering their consistent, pass-first offensive approach during the lengthy Andy Reid area, it’s hardly a surprise to see the Eagles on this list. Jason Avant is one of the game’s best/underrated slot receivers, which allows the team to go with him over a fullback or second tight end. Clay Harbor has emerged as a pass-catching threat behind Brent Celek, but he’s not going to do enough damage to chip into Avant’s snaps. As always, however, Avant’s only value is as an occasional bye week fill-in. His low ceiling is not worth a draft pick.

4. Detroit Lions (58 percent) – The Lions are an interesting team to monitor. Considering their pass-heavy approach, it makes a ton of sense to see them here. On top of the 58 percent mark, they also split No. 2 TE Tony Scheffler out wide quite often. That said, they figure to run the ball more often in 2012 and added Ryan Broyles to the mix. The rookie currently sits fourth on the wide receiver depth chart, but is certain to push incumbent slot man Nate Burleson for snaps. We might see a little more of blocking TE/FB Will Heller this season, but the three-wide sets aren’t going to decrease much. With Calvin Johnson and Titus Young out wide and Burleson/Broyles in the slot, Detroit’s pass offense has potential to be even more efficient this season.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (57 percent) – This one is most intriguing of the top-five, as Hines Ward has been eliminated from the picture. Of course, the possible holdup here is the change in offensive coordinators from Bruce Arians to Todd Haley. On one hand, Haley’s run-first Chiefs ranked in the lower half of the league in three-plus wide receivers sets. On the other hand, the 2008 Cardinals (Haley was OC) had three-plus wideouts on the field 63 percent of the time, which would’ve been third-highest in 2011. Haley will play to his strengths, which means Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are sure to see significant reps at the expense of Wes Saunders, Leonard Pope, and David Johnson.

The Basement:

1. Houston Texans (21 percent of snaps) – When a team calls a run a league-high 51 percent of the time, they’re sure to keep plenty of blockers on the field. Houston fit that bill in 2011, providing the trio of Owen Daniels, Joel Dreessen, and James Casey with quality reps. Those snaps came at the expense of the team’s underwhelming group of wide receivers, especially when Andre Johnson was out due to injury. In 2012, Johnson and Kevin Walter return, but Jacoby Jones is gone. Replacing him will be a combination of Lestar Jean (undrafted in 2011) and rookies Devier Posey and Keshawn Martin. Houston will, again, lean on Arian Foster and Ben Tate in the running game, leaving the team’s wide receivers to suffer.

2. San Francisco 49ers (22 percent) – Although the 49ers figure to continue on with a run-first attack, a rejuvenated wide receiver unit will call for more three-wide sets going forward. Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and A.J. Jenkins were added to a unit that combined for one reception in last season’s NFC Championship game. Moss and Manningham figure to work the outside, with Crabtree doing damage in the slot. The additional snaps to the wideouts will primarily be at the expense of Delanie Walker.

3. Baltimore Ravens (24 percent) – The Ravens signed Jacoby Jones and drafted Tommy Streeter, but failed to add an immediate impact player to the wide receiver position. Not much has changed. Expect to see plenty of Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson again this season.

4. New England Patriots (28 percent) – This one is a bit fluky. It’s common knowledge that Aaron Hernandez is really a wide receiver and he plays a high percentage of the team’s snaps each week. Still, there’s something to be learned here for those of you considering a late-round pick of Jabar Gaffney or Deion Branch. Teams can only keep five skill position players on the field at a time (not counting quarterbacks). Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and a tailback won’t leave the field often, which doesn’t leave many snaps for the newcomers. Also consider that the team intends on using the fullback more often in 2012.

5. San Diego Chargers (31 percent) – This one may surprise you considering the Chargers’ strong pass offense, but there’s a reason Vincent Brown was off the fantasy radar when both Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd were active last season (not to mention that he didn’t play the slot). San Diego chose to keep Randy McMichael on the field over half the time, which didn’t allow many reps for reserve wide receivers. This offseason, they added a pair of pass-catching tight ends to the mix with Dante Rosario and Ladarius Green. However, Eddie Royal was also brought in as an upgrade to incumbent slot man Patrick Crayton. Royal will play more than Crayton did, but the Chargers’ two-tight end attack won’t disappear completely.


Two-plus tight end packages

Not coincidentally, we’re going to see some overlap here. Teams who generally use a lot of wide receivers won’t use very many tight ends and vice versa. For the teams we discussed earlier, you’ll see only some quick analysis, as there’s no sense in repeating the same facts.

The Leaders:

1. New England Patriots (70 percent of snaps) – Could Daniel Fells or Spencer Larsen force more three-tight end sets? Jabar Gaffney hopes not.

2. San Francisco 49ers (56 percent) – Wide receiver upgrades will mean fewer snaps for Delanie Walker.

3. San Diego Chargers (54 percent) – Eddie Royal is an impact slot man, but Dante Rosario and Ladarius Green add to a strong tight end unit.

4. St. Louis Rams (50 percent) – With Josh McDaniels in town, the Rams looked to model the Patriots by spending a second-round pick on Lance Kendricks and teaming him up with blocker Michael Hoomanawanui. The results weren’t near as good as those in New England, however, as Kendricks struggled with drops and Hoomanawanui missed half the season with a torn ACL. It’s a new regime in St. Louis, of course, but know that Jeff Fisher’s Titans were among the league-leaders in two-tight end sets during his last few seasons. The Jets’ offense, however, which was led by new Rams’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, hasn’t used the second tight end much. Considering the Rams’ underwhelming wide receivers and the fact that they won’t be forcing a ground-and-pound attack, it’s fair to expect a healthy dose of two-tight end sets in St. Louis this season.

5. Dallas Cowboys (49 percent) – Jason Witten is one of the game’s best all-around tight ends and Martellus Bennett is arguably the league’s top run blocker. It was a no-brainer for Dallas to roll with a tight end-heavy attack. Bennett is now with the Giants, however. Replacing him will be John Phillips and rookie James Hanna. Had the team been able to re-sign Laurent Robinson, it would make sense to expect more three-wide formations. Unfortunately, Dallas figures to be stuck with one of Kevin Ogletree, Andre Holmes, and Danny Coale in the No. 3 slot this season. Phillips is going to see a heavy workload opposite of Witten, but he won’t see more than a target or two each week.

The Basement:

1. Oakland Raiders (9 percent of snaps) – Oakland ranked third in the league in fullback snaps thanks to the production of Marcel Reece. That explains why they aren’t higher on the three-plus wide receiver list despite barely using a second tight end. Despite a coaching change, not much figures to change in 2012. Reece, Darren McFadden, and the three-man wide receiver trio of Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford won’t leave the field much. That’s bad news for the tight ends, especially considering that it will be a three-man committee there, as well, between Brandon Myers, David Ausberry, and Richard Gordon.

2. Buffalo Bills (10 percent) – No team uses three or four wide receivers more than Buffalo. Scott Chandler and Co. are the odd men out.

3. Tennessee Titans (23 percent) – Jared Cook’s underwhelming blocking has kept him from being an every-down player. When Craig Stevens is in the game to run block, Cook often leaves the game. Instead, Tennessee leans on a three-wide attack that will be even stronger with first-round Kendall Wright now in the picture. Cook will play more this season, but it will be at the expense of Stevens – not a wide receiver. Tennessee figures to be in the lower-third of the league in tight end usage again in 2012.

4. New Orleans Saints (24 percent) – The Saints keep the fullback (39 percent of snaps) busier than most teams and only two teams went with two tailbacks more than New Orleans one year ago (albeit on only six percent of their snaps). That means a below market number of three-wide and two-tight end sets. David Thomas played quite a bit early during the 2011 season, but concussions held him to only five games. Now back at full health, he figures to cut into the fullback snaps this season.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25 percent) – Kellen Winslow didn’t leave the field very often last season, but rookie Luke Stocker only played a handful of snaps behind him. With Winslow off to Seattle and Dallas Clark now in the mix, the tables will turn. Stocker will play most downs, focusing on blocking. Clark will work the opposite side and run routes from the slot. Although Preston Parker has emerged into a quality slot receiver, the Bucs will run plenty of two-tight end sets under their new coaching regime in 2012.

HacheMan · Jun 21, 2012

ADP Watch: The Undervalued
You think you’re sneaky, right? You’re going to stack a team with Ryan Mathews, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson and Demaryius Thomas while nobody is looking, thus coasting to the title. Think again.

By taking an early look at the average draft position (ADP) tool in our Draft Guide, we can see that those “buzz” players aren’t as undervalued as you might think. Mathews (5.6) and Richardson (12.8) are both first-round picks, while Jones’ ADP is currently at 36.9. Thomas is at 58.2, a number that is sure to rise once the general public sees Peyton Manning actually throwing passes again.

In order to find true “undervalued” guys, we’re going to have to dig deeper.

* Editor's Note: The full Draft Guide will be available on July 5 and will be constantly updated until Week 1.

These ADP numbers are sure to fluctuate significantly once training camp and drafting season kicks into high gear. But initial impressions are hard to shake, so we can gain a lot by evaluating the report. Some guys currently flying under the public’s radar:

1. Brandon Lloyd – ADP 64.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 53<sup>rd</sup> overall

Perhaps Lloyd is slipping because owners have bad memories of failed Patriots wideout experiments such as Joey Galloway and Chad Ochocinco. But this one feels different. Lloyd is a personal favorite of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and his strength lies in the deep, vertical passing game. Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez can’t say that.

The last time McDaniels was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator with a healthy Tom Brady (2007), they led the league in overall offense and passing offense. That year, vertical threat Randy Moss had 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns. That might sound crazy, until you recall that Lloyd had 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010 with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow as his quarterbacks -- and McDaniels calling the plays.

2. Michael Vick – ADP 51.6
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 20<sup>th</sup> overall

Stars coming off bad years are often going to be undervalued. And Vick certainly fits that criterion. He sustained a concussion in Week 2 last season and also fractured two ribs in Week 10. Even when Vick was on the field for 13 games, he threw a career-high 14 interceptions and flukily ran for just one score.

By all accounts, Vick has rededicated himself as he goes through his first full offseason as a starter since 2006. The Eagles’ offense is just as potent as it was last year when Vick was a consensus first-round fantasy pick. If there’s any kind of bounce-back here – and there should be – Vick is a great bet to regain top-10 status.

3. Brandon LaFell – ADP 159.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 110<sup>th</sup> overall

LaFell curiously played behind Legedu Naanee for much of last season. Coach Ron Rivera says that was to keep a “carrot” in front of him. Regardless, it’s obvious that the 6’2/211 LaFell is locked in as the No. 2 wideout opposite Smith heading into this season. Naanee is in Miami and David Gettis is coming off a torn ACL.

Those around the Panthers have speculated strongly that the organization believes LaFell is in for a breakout year. He’s in his third season, has Cam Newton throwing him the ball and has highly aggressive Rob Chudzinski calling the plays. Value LaFell as a strong bench player with upside rather than the mere flier his current ADP suggests.

4. James Starks – ADP 80.1
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 80<sup>th</sup> overall

Unquestioned starting running backs don’t usually last into the seventh round. Some guesses as to why Starks’ ADP is so low:

A) There’s a perception that the Packers throw on every play: Well, this one just isn’t true. The Pack attempted 34.5 passes per game last season, 14<sup>th</sup> in the league.

B) There’s a perception that Starks won’t get the bulk of the carries: The depth chart behind Starks currently includes Alex Green (coming off an ACL tear), middling talent Brandon Saine and fullback John Kuhn. That shouldn’t scare anyone.

C) Starks isn’t durable: There’s some validity here. Starks hasn’t played a full season since 2008, when he was at the University of Buffalo.

Add this up and we don’t have a mid-round "yawn" pick. Considering the ever-present need for depth at the running back spot, Starks projects to give a lot of value if his ADP sticks around 80.

5. Titus Young – ADP 117.3
Where he went in Rotoworld’s June 11 expert mock: 97<sup>th</sup> overall

We can often find value where there’s young talent blocked by a less explosive veteran. That’s what we have here as Young figures to be pushing Nate Burleson for snaps in two-wide sets come training camp. Thanks to this article from Mike Clay, we already know that Young will see plenty of action regardless. The Lions ran three-wide sets 58 percent of the time last season.

Young has had a buzzworthy offseason, and I’m not talking about his fight with teammate Louis Delmas. He’s ripped apart offseason workouts, drawing rave reviews from his coaches and the media. Young fits perfectly with Matthew Stafford’s rocket arm as a burner opposite Calvin Johnson.

HacheMan · Jun 24, 2012

On Demaryius, Ridley, and Hank
My first re-watching column on Julio Jones, Cam Newton, and Jake Locker seemed to generate positive feedback, so I decided to do another. We'll skip the intro and get right into the game reviews.

Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas

Thomas saw double-digit targets in two 2011 games, so those are the ones I chose for re-watching purposes. They were Week 14 versus Chicago (13 targets) and Week 15 against New England (10).

We'll start with the negatives. I also purposely chose the Bears game because it was Thomas' worst of the season. He dropped three balls, including one early in the third quarter for a would-be over-the-shoulder scoring bomb and another midway through the fourth after Thomas ran a pretty comeback route and was wide open for what should have been an 18-yard gain. Tim Tebow's passes were a bit off both times, but they hit Thomas in the hands and he should have had them.

Thomas is an absolute bull to bring down with the football in his possession. On his first catch of the Chicago game, Thomas required literally seven defenders to be pushed out of bounds on a short grab down the left sideline. He added six or seven yards to the end of his reception.

There is a perception that Thomas is the deep threat to Eric Decker's possession receiver. I'll avoid opining why, but the opposite was the case in 2011. Decker ran more deep routes in the two games I viewed, while Thomas starred in the short to intermediate, particularly on comeback routes. Thomas played both outside receiver positions. If he took a single snap in the slot, I didn't see it.

Thomas did flash his vertical tools on a 39-yard strike in the fourth quarter of the Patriots game. He booked it down the right sideline and hauled in Tebow's pass with two defenders in the vicinity. The play happened on third-and-18 to keep a drive alive. Tebow powered in for a rushing touchdown a few snaps later.

I realize there's been criticism of Demaryius Thomas' route-running chops. I feel like it would be irresponsible of me to pretend to know route assignments. I can say whether a receiver moves cleanly in and out of breaks, and whether he accelerates from his stance into pass patterns.

In Thomas' two most heavily-targeted games -- both with Tebow at quarterback -- he was essentially out there playing streetball anyway. I'd posit that something like half of Thomas' receptions were made on broken plays. He did show good awareness working back to the quarterback when Tebow freelanced, although that needs to be instinct and not something for which Thomas should be praised. He also won't be doing that with Peyton Manning at the controls.

Thomas is really big and can really run. He has some special traits. He also hasn't played extensively in a pro-style offense as long as I've been paying attention (since Georgia Tech). I'm excited to watch Thomas this preseason in a system more typical of NFL clubs, because I could only come away from these two games saying he's a great athlete. I am smitten with his fantasy potential.

Other quick takeaways from Denver game reviews:

** We'll discuss Stevan Ridley at length in the next segment, but the Broncos-Patriots Week 15 game was his first big late-season exposure. And he looked awfully good. Great balance, quick feet, shows a solid stiff-arm and keeps his feet moving through traffic. More in a bit.

** On Bears-Broncos: I think it's fair to ask, that in league history, has there ever been a game played where the two teams have had as little confidence in their quarterbacks' passing ability as this one? Caleb Hanie versus Tebow was a sack- and punt-filled nightmare game with little ball movement and scoring. Before Marion Barber's late-game boneheaded miscues, he legitimately looked like one of the better skill-position players on the field. Matt Prater starred for the Broncos.

Patriots running back Stevan Ridley

Before we worry about 2012 projections, it's important to note that New England's backfield may not be a bankable fantasy asset so long as Bill Belichick is coach. Week-to-week usage is highly unpredictable, and workloads are highly inconsistent because of in-game rotations. In both of the games I viewed, the Patriots used three-headed timeshares involving Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And Aaron Hernandez got carries, too.

It's been eight years since any Patriots player hit 230 rushing attempts in a season. The high during that span (Green-Ellis, 229 carries in 2010) would have ranked 15th in the league last year. This might be the truest running back committee in football.

Green-Ellis has departed, though, leaving behind 24 rushing touchdowns over the past two years. There is production to be allocated, and we're not going to stop trying to guess who will get it.

On to Ridley ...


For game review, I chose Ridley's highest two touch totals of his rookie season. Ridley received 13 carries in Week 16 versus Miami (tough matchup) and 15 in Week 17 against the Bills (easy).

After taking a few hours to digest the performances, the first thing I'd say about Ridley is that he is a natural between the tackles. Ridley runs very hard; violently at times. He falls forward at the end of runs without fail. Ridley doesn't have a whole lot of lateral shake and bake, but he does show quick feet for a 225-pound power back. I'd call his vision to spot openings very encouraging, and Ridley follows his blocks like a polished vet.

Ridley doesn't run 4.4 in the forty, but he also possesses plenty of speed to get the corner. He's dangerous on the perimeter and a load to bring down.

In the Dolphins game, one bone-rattling red-zone run really stood out. Ridley powered his way directly through a head-on confrontation with Karlos Dansby and put cornerback Vontae Davis on his rear end all in one motion. Ridley busted several of Dansby's tackle attempts over the course of the game, and Dansby is one of the best linebackers in the NFL today. Ridley had his number.

The Patriots inserted Ridley for a number of specific short-yardage situations and used him in tandem with Green-Ellis to kill the clock toward the end of the Bills game. If I was going to project a 2012 replacement for Green-Ellis' goal-line and keep-the-lead role, I'd say Ridley is the favorite.

As for passing-game work, Ridley did run routes out of the backfield, but was rarely thrown to. If Ridley ever pass blocked in the two games, it wasn't by design. He didn't seem to be trusted in blitz pickup yet.

Ridley's biggest problem as a rookie was fumbling. It's what eventually got him benched during the Patriots' playoff run. Ridley had the ball popped loose from behind early in the third quarter of the Bills game. Luckily for New England, the pigskin torpedoed out of bounds.

Other quick takeaways from New England game reviews:

** This isn't breaking news, but the Patriots' offense was decidedly horizontal in both contests. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Wes Welker were featured in the short passing attack, but they got nothing going deep. (Brandon Lloyd should change that.)

** I kept a close eye on C.J. Spiller during the Bills possessions. Spiller finished with 100 total yards and a touchdown, but he still looks uncomfortable between the tackles. That isn't to suggest Spiller doesn't finish his runs hard, but there was lots of waiting around, stops and starts. He was also pulled for Tashard Choice deep in the red zone. Spiller can give defenses fits when he reaches the perimeter and is a playmaker in the passing game, but I think it's fair to wonder if he'll settle in simply as a change-of-pace back in the pros. He's very much a Reggie Bush-type player.

** Ryan Fitzpatrick consistently looked sharp in the short pass game in the first half against New England, but he struggles mightily to throw downfield. Fitzpatrick finished with four interceptions, and in the second half it seemed as if Patriots defensive backs were fielding flyballs in the outfield.

** Brian Hartline is entering a contract year and has a chance to be Miami's No. 1 receiver in 2012. He was pretty unimpressive in the Fins-Pats Week 16 game. Hartline may have buildup speed, but he's slow out of the blocks and doesn't appear to get in and out of breaks quickly.

Redskins receiver Leonard Hankerson

Hankerson only played extensively in two 2011 games, so choosing two to re-watch was easy. I checked out Week 9 versus San Francisco (68-of-69 snaps played) and Week 10 at Miami (46-of-56 snaps).

I charted every down, and the first thing that stuck out was Hankerson's comfort going over the middle, often amid heavy traffic. Some receivers run tentatively through "trash." It's Hankerson's home away from home. He caught 13 passes in the two starts -- including a successful two-point conversion on a fade route -- and nine of them came across the middle. Hankerson made two big-time leaping grabs deep down the middle late in the Miami game, with Washington trying to rally back from a deficit.

Hankerson played Z receiver in the 49ers game. He moved to X against the Dolphins and took off. It was clear that X is the featured, go-to position in the Shanahans' offense. And unlike in some schemes, the "X" isn't an isolation route runner sticking to the sideline and going deep. Hankerson ran comebacks, fades, drags, and digs. He did not drop a single pass in either of the two starts.

Against Miami, Hankerson did most of his damage against Vontae Davis, who is one of the top young cornerbacks in the league. Davis played off coverage most of the game -- giving some cushion -- but Hankerson exploited it successfully for 106 yards on eight catches in just 46 snaps.

Hankerson suffered a torn labrum in his hip late against Miami, and that injury is a concern for 2012. So is his role. The Redskins want high-priced Pierre Garcon to be the X receiver, with Josh Morgan, Hankerson, and Santana Moss competing at Z.

Perhaps Hankerson is a year away, but I liked what I saw. Hankerson has a big body (6'2/205) and knows how to use it. You could even say he plays bigger than he is. He moves very well for his size and is long, lean, and athletic. He explodes into routes. And his hands are noticeably massive in gold gloves. At 10 5/8 inches, Hankerson's paws are bigger than Hakeem Nicks'.

Other quick takeaways from Washington game reviews:

** In the 49ers game, I continued to be underwhelmed by Michael Crabtree. He has never shown the ability to run by coverage, and that remained the case against Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall. Crabtree is a volume/possession wide receiver who does little after the catch. He's best on slants.

** In the Miami game, Daniel Thomas stuck out as one of the poorer players on the field. It's been suggested that Thomas was playing hurt. The coaches didn't seem worried, seeing as he took a game-high 17 carries. They do need to worry about Thomas' development. He showed no power, running soft with awful pad level. Thomas looked slow and was often stopped dead in his tracks. He also appeared clueless in pass protection, noticeably whiffing on some blitz-pickup attempts.

** Roy Helu received 33 touches in these two contests -- a decent sample size even if he played behind Ryan Torain for most of the Dolphins matchup. While Helu lacks special lateral quicks, he displayed terrific acceleration, soaked up everything blocked, and flashed power to move the pile. His feet never stop moving. I loved watching Helu on outside zone and stretch runs because of his burst. He also consistently finished off his runs, which was a bit of an issue for Helu at Nebraska.

HacheMan · Jun 24, 2012

Ten key faces in new places

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
Change dominated the headlines this offseason.

That is, change of a specific player's address: Peyton Manning's.

You couldn't turn on a TV or radio, pick up a newspaper or browse a sports website anytime during the month of March without hearing or reading a discussion of Manning's whereabouts for 2012. The surefire Hall of Famer was the most hotly contested name on the free-agent market -- his name landed on that list following his release by the Indianapolis Colts the first week of March -- so the landing spot for such a prominent name, naturally, matters.

It matters in the NFL, and it matters in fantasy football.

And when we look at Manning's signing with the Denver Broncos, we can't help but proclaim his the most important fantasy-related address change of the 2012 offseason. Yes, that's even though he's now 36 years old and coming off four surgical procedures on his neck since March 2010. Let's face it: It's not often that the owner of four MVP awards, the third-most passing touchdowns in NFL history (399) and annual averages of 4,218 yards and 31 TDs passing changes uniforms.

The questions surrounding Manning are mostly health-related: Offseason reports on his throwing were positive, but until we see him in game action and he begins taking hits, we simply won't know how substantial the risk of him missing further time really is. Adapting to new surroundings, including a new set of receivers, presents another question, but few doubt that if any quarterback can quickly adapt, it's (a healthy) Manning. As such, he's the ultimate risk/reward player in fantasy; the probabilities of either another 4,000-yard, 30-TD season or a Week 1 sack that ends his career are both nonzero (and by a decent margin for either).

But it's not only the impact upon Manning that matters. His arrival in the Mile High City instantly makes both Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker breakout candidates -- the difficulty for fantasy owners is deciding which one they like better -- and it makes running back Willis McGahee a potential value pick in the middle rounds. Remember, during Manning's 13 healthy seasons in Indianapolis, nine times the Colts' starting running back managed a 1,000-yard campaign (2002, 2008, 2009 and 2010 were the only times they fell short), and in 2009, they got an 828-yard, 10-TD season out of Joseph Addai. If anything, that Manning, and not Tim Tebow, is the Broncos' quarterback is a plus for McGahee; it restores his status as the team's most likely candidate for goal-line carries.

Manning's team change was the No. 1 story in terms of player movement this offseason. Now, let's take a look at Nos. 2-10:

2. Chicago Bears trade for WR Brandon Marshall

This one drummed up much excitement among fantasy owners and Bears fans alike; Marshall is now reunited with Jay Cutler, his quarterback from 2006-08 when the two were with the Denver Broncos. Marshall managed his two best single-season numbers in terms of receptions and receiving yards working with Cutler, and Cutler's best single season (2008), as well as his two best years in terms of completion percentage, came with Marshall as his No. 1 receiver. There's no doubt reuniting them is a boon to both their fantasy values -- runs at top-10 status at their positions for each is possible -- but questions remain: Can Marshall keep his head on straight for long enough to remain focused and on the field for 16 games, can the Bears' O-line provide the necessary protection for Cutler and will coach Lovie Smith finally drop his infatuation with Devin Hester?

3. New England Patriots sign WR Brandon Lloyd

This just in: Lloyd really likes playing for Josh McDaniels. Lloyd's breakout fantasy season of 2009 -- that one his seventh in the NFL -- came with McDaniels as his coach, then he managed four touchdowns in his first six games following a midseason trade to the St. Louis Rams, whose offensive coordinator was … da-da-da-DAAAA! … McDaniels. Now Lloyd joins the Patriots, again following McDaniels, who agreed to become their O-coordinator late last season. Lloyd's stats speak volumes: In 27 career games for a "McDaniels team," he has averaged 4.7 receptions, 78.9 receiving yards and 0.59 receiving touchdowns. In 85 games played for anyone else, his averages in those categories are 2.2, 31.2 and 0.18. Oh, and Lloyd now has the advantage of having Tom Brady throwing him the football. Granted, the Patriots have other pass-catchers on the roster who aren't about to cede targets -- Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez -- but even if Lloyd's volume of targets decreases, might their quality increase? Perhaps, which is why he's one of the more intriguing top-25 wideouts.

4. Kansas City Chiefs sign RB Peyton Hillis

Here's a move that's a no-brainer from a pure football perspective, but represents a dilly of a pickle for fantasy owners. Signing Hillis to help pick up the load that Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster could not in the wake of Jamaal Charles' season-ending ACL injury makes complete sense from an insurance-policy perspective; it creates a potential nightmare to Charles' fantasy owners because of the prospect of lost carries, especially at the goal line. This assumes, of course, that Charles' ACL has completely healed, meaning fantasy owners with early drafts need to make the practically mandatory Hillis handcuff. But if it has and Charles is a "go" for Week 1, here's what the Chiefs see: At 5-foot-11, 199 pounds, Charles isn't nearly the natural bruiser that the 6-foot-2, 250-pound Hillis is. Hillis, too, is at least as good a pass-catcher, meaning third-down snaps are also up for grabs. The result: A critical backfield to track this preseason and a high-risk, high-reward tandem.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign WR Vincent Jackson

The closest thing to a genuine No. 1 wideout on the free-agent market this offseason, Jackson might have landed in one of the very few places likely to mute his fantasy value. Besides the considerable downgrade in his quarterback, going from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman, new Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano's run-heavy offensive philosophy, stemming from his days at Rutgers, hints that Jackson might have a difficult time exceeding any of his past categorical bests: 68 receptions, 1,167 receiving yards or 9 receiving touchdowns, all of those set in 2009 (the TDs matched in 2011). Jackson's arrival is a plus for Freeman, who might have a shot at approaching the 25 TDs he threw for in 2010 if he's allowed to throw often enough, but it's a minus for fellow Buccaneers wideouts Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, ruining Williams' bounce-back and Benn's sleeper potential.

6. San Diego Chargers sign WR Robert Meachem

Although the aforementioned Vincent Jackson's departure adversely impacted the Chargers, by adding Meachem, it's not like they're substantially worse in the passing game. Granted, per 16 games played the past three seasons, Meachem managed 20 fewer receptions (63-43), 470 fewer receiving yards (1,120-660) and two fewer receiving touchdowns (9-7) than Jackson, but remember, Meachem's numbers arguably suffered because of Drew Brees' spread-it-around approach. That's not to say Meachem is Jackson's equal; it's saying that he could develop into a similarly productive No. 1 wideout, because his skills are underrated and he now has the opportunity. It's a matter of "what we know" versus "what we might learn"; Meachem's arrival prevents Philip Rivers' fantasy stock from plummeting, and it puts himself on the list of mid-round sleepers.

7. Seattle Seahawks sign QB Matt Flynn

For all the buzz surrounding Flynn's arrival in Seattle and the comparisons made to another ex-Green Bay Packers quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck making the trip northwest, let's remember two key facts: Flynn has all of two career NFL starts, and he has attempted but 132 career regular-season passes. Throw in the considerable downgrade in receivers between what Flynn was throwing to with the Packers last Week 17 and what the Seahawks will roll out in 2012, and you'll need temper your expectations. Flynn does have the advantage of four years' tutelage under Aaron Rodgers, as well as a reputation for good decision-making; in those two starts, he did throw for at least three touchdowns in each. But he's fantasy-backup material with his new team, a speculative option you stash, not pick to lead your squad.

8. Cincinnati Bengals sign RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The Law Firm's arrival in Cincinnati is an interesting one; while he's a more recently successful short-yardage option who possesses better hands than the man he replaced, Cedric Benson, Green-Ellis' "starter's" upside really isn't any greater than that of his predecessor. Although Green-Ellis' yards per carry mark the past two seasons combined (4.1) exceeded Benson's (3.7), he's not much more than your average two-down back with the additional advantage of goal-line work. There's an opportunity here for backup Bernard Scott that wasn't quite present during Benson's days, and it's worth pointing out that the Bengals, unlike the Patriots, might not provide Green-Ellis with nearly as many scoring chances. To that end, Patriots running backs totaled 32 plays -- carries or targets -- within the opponent's five-yard line last season. The Bengals? They totaled 18.

9. New York Jets trade for QB Tim Tebow

Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Surely you've heard of this guy, right? Let the three-ring circus begin in the Meadowlands, as "Tebowmania" was the perfect tonic for the headaches of Mark Sanchez, a quarterback who, through three NFL seasons, has fallen short of expectations. (Previous sentence reeking of sarcasm.) Tebow begins 2012 as a novelty for the Jets, his most fantasy-relevant impact the likelihood that he'll vulture rushing touchdowns from Shonn Greene, but you can be sure that the catcalls for Tebow to start will quickly commence … perhaps as soon as Week 1. Look at that Jets September schedule: versus Buffalo Bills (added Mario Williams), at Pittsburgh Steelers, at Miami Dolphins, versus San Francisco 49ers. It's as if Tebow starting by October was destined, but what's maddening about that is that if it takes that long, he'll be draft-irrelevant, and once he emerges regularly under center, he'll drain almost all of the value out of every Jets receiver.

10. Chicago Bears sign RB Michael Bush

You might think that a running back's arrival on a team that already has Matt Forte, who averaged 13.1 ESPN standard fantasy points per game before spraining his knee in Week 13 last season, wouldn't raise an eyebrow, but … remember that Forte and the Bears have squabbled over his contract for more than a year now, not to mention that process has brought to light the team's questions about his durability. A Forte holdout is a distinct possibility, but Bush also provides valuable insurance for the Bears in the case their concerns for Forte's health turn out to be valid. Bush, at the very least, is a 6-foot-1, 245-pound bowling ball who makes scads of sense for a Bears team that got an 0-for-7 performance from Forte on plays within the opponent's 5-yard line last season. Bush's basement fantasy value is that of a goal-line back and handcuff; but if he's pressed into starter's duty, he showed over short spurts that he can be a handy No. 2 option.

The chart below lists a few other notable offseason moves, albeit ones that failed to crack the top 10:

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 25%; vertical-align: bottom;">Player</th><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>New
team</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Fantasy quick take</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">RB Joseph Addai</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Don't leap to declare him The Law Firm's goal-line replacement. Addai is here as an insurance policy, and he's not even a lock to make the team.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Martellus Bennett</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Eli Manning does throw to his tight ends; remember Jake Ballard last season? Bennett could be a sneaky late-round pick for those who wait on the position.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Kevin Boss</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He'll team with Tony Moeaki as the Chiefs seek to duplicate the Patriots' two-headed tight end monster. Um, except for one problem: Boss is no Rob Gronkowski, nor Moeaki Aaron Hernandez.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB Jason Campbell</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">The Bears, with their O-line issues, are smart to bring in a brand-name backup for Jay Cutler. But even if Campbell is called upon to start, he's league-average at best.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE John Carlson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">That groan you just heard came from Kyle Rudolph's "sleeper" supporters in fantasy; Carlson's arrival means many two-tight end sets and minimal fantasy returns for either.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Dallas Clark</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Kellen Winslow's replacement in Tampa comes to a team shifting its focus to the run. Hopes of a complete rebound are a stretch.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Joel Dreessen</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">A handy fill-in and a solid blocker, Dreessen bears watching because of the Peyton Manning factor. But he's no draft-day material, not yet.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Pierre Garcon</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">His contract makes it clear he's the Redskins' new No. 1 wideout, but can "Cam Newton-esque" rookie magic strike in back-to-back years? Robert Griffin III's learning curve might keep Garcon in the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver class.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB David Garrard</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Some consolation prize. Garrard will battle Matt Moore and rookie Ryan Tannehill for a roster spot, let alone the starting gig. That mountain to climb might not sound steep, but it is.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">RB Mike Goodson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He'll be in the mix for the backup job to Darren McFadden, a relevant one considering "DMC's" injury history. Fumbleitis is a chronic problem, though.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB Chad Henne</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Laurent Robinson's fantasy owners might root for Henne, a projected backup, to take over as starter. Hey, at least Brandon Marshall was decent working with Henne.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">RB Brandon Jacobs</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">On reputation, he'll be a threat to Frank Gore's goal-line carries, but Jacobs is NFL backup material at this stage of his career and more a headache to Gore/Kendall Hunter owners than anything.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Mario Manningham</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">The questions are his health and Vernon Davis' and Michael Crabtree's status as preferred weapons up close, but Manningham could be depth help in terms of yards/catches.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">RB Le'Ron McClain</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Mike Tolbert's probable replacement could factor in goal-line packages, but the net result is a plus for starter Ryan Mathews. McClain won't nearly cut into Mathews' carries as much as Tolbert did.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Josh Morgan</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">It's a bit of a stretch to proclaim him No. 2 NFL wideout material, but he's got the potential to get there. If he stays healthy. And you can capitalize that "IF."</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Randy Moss</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He's 35, sat out 2011 and was a headache to three different teams in 2010. Oh, and he's a deep threat now with a quarterback who rarely throws deep.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Legedu Naanee</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">At best, he'll open camp third on the depth chart to Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. Speaks volumes about his fantasy appeal, doesn't it?</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB Kyle Orton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Hey, he's an upgrade on Jon Kitna, at least. But Orton will be fantasy-irrelevant except in case of catastrophic injury to Tony Romo.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Roscoe Parrish</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He'll provide depth for the Chargers at wide receiver, perhaps settling as a punt returner in the best-case scenario.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">K Neil Rackers</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Who doesn't love a good ol' fashioned kicker training camp battle? Rackers versus Graham Gano. We're on the edge of our seats.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Laurent Robinson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He's now a No. 1 on a team with no competition for the role, but the downgrade at quarterback from Tony Romo to Blaine Gabbert is massive.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Eddie Royal</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Opportunity knocks for Royal who could slide in at the slot in addition to returning punts. Yes, his career has been full of disappointment, but a strong preseason could sneak him onto the sleepers list.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Jerome Simpson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">He'll be a starter for the Vikings and perhaps an undervalued one at that. But off-the-field issues hold him back, including a three-game suspension to begin 2012.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">WR Steve Smith</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">His 2010 microfracture surgery has seemingly derailed his career, but he'll have a chance at a roster spot -- think fourth/fifth receiver -- if he can wow the Rams this preseason.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB Drew Stanton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Introducing rookie Andrew Luck's insurance policy. Yup, it sure looks like Luck's leash will be looooooooong. As it should be.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Jacob Tamme</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Of all ex-Colts to follow Peyton Manning to Denver … Tamme should be the Broncos' No. 1 tight end, a frequent read for Manning, and that makes him sleeper material.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">RB Mike Tolbert</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">What a rushing attack the Panthers have built up the past year. Tolbert could signal the approaching end of Jonathan Stewart's tenure with the team. But, for this year, couldn't it be just as likely that he'll be a fullback who tallies minimal touches?</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TE Kellen Winslow</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">The Bucs effectively gave him away, and Winslow now rates behind Zach Miller on the depth chart. His fantasy value appears to have evaporated as quickly as his playmaking skills.</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">QB Vince Young</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ryan Fitzpatrick's new backup represents an insurance policy and a possible Wildcat option, but little else. Need we remind you Young's awful 2011 stats when he started?</td></tr></tbody></table>

HacheMan · Jun 25, 2012

2012 Sleepers and Busts
Every year at this time Rotoworld constructs a deep list of “sleepers” and “busts” for the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide magazine. Below is a sample of the 50+ picks for undervalued, sleepers, overvalued, and busts that can already be found in the 2012 online Draft Guide, which will be live on July 5.

Undervalued

Michael Vick, Eagles, QB - Vick was in the discussion for the No. 1 overall fantasy pick at this time a year ago. Nothing has changed this year except the offensive line has solidified and both starting receivers are poised for bounce-back seasons. As evidenced by the trophies he almost single-handedly put on the mantle two years ago, Vick still has the highest ceiling in fantasy.

Current ADP: 4.04, 41st overall, QB6

Carson Palmer, Raiders, QB - Yards per attempt is arguably the most important statistic for a quarterback. Only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Matt Schaub bested Palmer’s 8.4 figure with the Raiders last year. Palmer’s 275 yards per in 10 games last season project to 4,400 over a full schedule.

Current ADP: 11.04, 128th overall, QB16

Trent Richardson, Browns, RB - The local media and the Browns’ GM expect Richardson to be a workhorse right out of the gates. Widely viewed as the best back to enter the NFL since Adrian Peterson, Richardson is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries as a rookie. Forget about the lack of surrounding talent; Peyton Hillis finished as fantasy No. 2 back in a weaker offense two years ago.

Current ADP: 2.02, 14th overall, RB10

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, RB - The Panthers boast three superstar offensive talents, but this one continues to fly under the radar. Only LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew earned a higher running grade from Pro Football Focus, and Stewart forced more missed tackles in the passing game than any other NFL back. Stewart led the backfield in snaps and was more productive than DeAngelo Williams, but he’s still being drafted as Williams’ backup. Should Williams miss time, Stewart is a must-start RB1 option.

Current ADP: 8.04, 89th overall, RB36

Percy Harvin, Vikings, WR - From late November on, Harvin was utilized as a double-threat on the ground and through the air, turning back the clock to his Gator days as the most explosive player on the field. Harvin averaged 103.3 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per game from Weeks 10-17 while easily establishing career-highs in receptions (87), receiving yards (967), and rushing yards (345) in a 7th-place fantasy finish. With that workload, he’s essentially slump-proof in fantasy terms.

Current ADP: 5.02, 50th overall, WR20

Brandon Lloyd, Patriots, WR - Lloyd finished 25th in fantasy points, getting open at will, despite catching passes from A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens for half the season. The star of offseason practices, Lloyd has made a seamless transition in his former coordinator’s offense, establishing a rapport with Tom Brady. Lloyd should be a lock for double-digit scores as the outside threat Brady has craved since losing Randy Moss.

Current ADP: 5.05, 54th overall, WR21

Sleepers

Jake Locker, Titans, QB - Locker followed up an impressive preseason with a 99.4 passer rating, 8.2 YPA, 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio and dazzling rushing ability in three second-half relief appearances. If his obvious talent edge wins out over Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans have the young offensive playmakers to scorch opposing defenses this season.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 24 QBs

Bernard Scott, Bengals, RB - Scott never seriously challenged Cedric Benson for carries, but he’s expected to be utilized in a committee attack with newly signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis. It won’t take long for the coaching staff to realize Scott offers far more explosiveness as a runner as well as a receiver. By mid-season, Scott should have the reins as the lead back.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 58 RBs.

Kevin Smith, Lions, RB - An intriguing fantasy wildcard with two question marks in front of him in the Detroit backfield, Smith played as well as he ever has after signing in Week 10 last season. Versatile enough to play all three downs as long as his body holds up, Smith is an ideal roster stash as a RB3/4.

Current ADP: 12.10, 149th overall, RB53

Eric Decker, Broncos, WR - Decker ran more routes and caught more passes from Peyton Manning than any Denver receiver this offseason, quickly earning the veteran’s trust. Decker is a good route runner and an underrated athlete with size and special ball skills. Anointed by Kyle Orton as the “ideal” slot receiver last year, Decker is more talented than Manning’s former slot machines, Austin Collie and Brandon Stokley.

Current ADP: 6.06, 69th overall, WR28

Brian Hartline, Dolphins, WR - By default, Hartline is set to take over as the No. 1 receiver in Miami following the Brandon Marshall trade. A complementary receiver to date, Hartline is more athletic than commonly believed -- similar to Jordy Nelson, who broke out with Joe Philbin’s Packers in 2011.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 63 WRs.

Overvalued

Peyton Manning, Broncos, QB - Arm-strength questions aside, Manning figures to suffer early-season growing pains while developing a rapport with his offensive line, wide receivers, and play caller. Throw in a brutal non-divisional schedule, and the obvious move is to let another owner risk a fifth or sixth-round draft pick on Manning.

Current ADP: 6.02, 63rd overall, QB8

Michael Turner, Falcons, RB - The patron saint of volume runners, Turner was already headed for a reduced workload after fading down the stretch for a second straight season. New coordinator Dirk Koetter plans to operate a more pass-heavy offense, diminishing Turner’s role even further. Heavily dependent on short-yardage scores, Turner is on a crash-course with a season out of LenDale White’s career.

Current ADP: 3.06, 31st overall, RB16

Wes Welker, Patriots, WR - Welker averaged an unsustainable 8.25/120/0.75 line in the first eight games compared to 6.8/71/0.36 the rest of the way -- including 7-of-11 games in which he failed to crack 60 yards. Most troublesome, Welker’s targets didn’t drop in the second half even though his per-play production did. With Brandon Lloyd on board, those targets do figure to go down this season.

Current ADP: 3.04, 28th overall, WR6

Jordy Nelson, Packers, WR - Nelson closed out the season as a top-three fantasy WR due to single coverage, refined route running, explosive run-after-catch ability, increased trust from his QB, Greg Jennings’ late-season knee injury, and -- last but not least -- unsustainable good luck with the deep ball. Pro Football Focus notes that Nelson accrued half of his yards and scores on passes thrown 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s simply not sustainable year-in and year-out.

Current ADP: 4.03, 40th overall, WR14

Jason Witten, Cowboys, TE - On the way to his least productive season since 2007, Witten averaged just 5.8 targets in the second half of the season after seeing 8.9 in the first half. Over the final five games, Witten finished 19th among fantasy tight ends -- behind the likes of Dennis Pitta and Jeremy Shockey. Now a lower-tier TE1, Witten is no longer worth elite tight end price tag.

Current ADP: 6.11, 74th overall, TE7

Busts

Frank Gore, 49ers, RB - The Niners ran Gore into the ground last October, and he paid for it with a 3.2 yards per carry average while playing through multiple injuries in the second half of the season. Gore no longer has a major role in the passing game, and the 49ers brought in Brandon Jacobs as a short-yardage hammer. Where is the fantasy upside?

Current ADP: 4.02, 39th overall, RB19

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals, RB - A timeshare back about to be exposed outside of the Patriots’ offense. The dictionary definition of a plodder, Green-Ellis didn't have a run over 18 yards last season. If you take away the game where the Jets played seven defensive backs throughout, Green-Ellis’ per-carry average falls below 3.5 yards. You can find backs like this on the waiver wire throughout the season.

Current ADP: 5.05, 53rd overall, RB24

Sidney Rice, Seahawks, WR - How would you feel about taking on the risk of Jahvid Best if he was coming off twin labrum surgeries in his shoulders? If Best is wearing a red flag as an injury risk, Rice is sporting fluorescent hazmat tape after his third concussion in 12 months ended his season prematurely last year.

Current ADP: 8.11, 96th overall, WR37

Brent Celek, Eagles, TE - Celek erupted for 542 of his 811 yards in the second half of the season with Jeremy Maclin injured and DeSean Jackson in the doghouse. With both receivers healthy and poised for bounce-back seasons, Celek will fall back to the third or fourth option in the passing attack.

Current ADP: 13.04, 155th overall, TE15

HacheMan · Jun 26, 2012

2012 Sleepers and Busts
Every year at this time Rotoworld constructs a deep list of “sleepers” and “busts” for the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide magazine. Below is a sample of the 50+ picks for undervalued, sleepers, overvalued, and busts that can already be found in the 2012 online Draft Guide, which will be live on July 5.

Undervalued

Michael Vick, Eagles, QB - Vick was in the discussion for the No. 1 overall fantasy pick at this time a year ago. Nothing has changed this year except the offensive line has solidified and both starting receivers are poised for bounce-back seasons. As evidenced by the trophies he almost single-handedly put on the mantle two years ago, Vick still has the highest ceiling in fantasy.

Current ADP: 4.04, 41st overall, QB6

Carson Palmer, Raiders, QB - Yards per attempt is arguably the most important statistic for a quarterback. Only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Matt Schaub bested Palmer’s 8.4 figure with the Raiders last year. Palmer’s 275 yards per in 10 games last season project to 4,400 over a full schedule.

Current ADP: 11.04, 128th overall, QB16

Trent Richardson, Browns, RB - The local media and the Browns’ GM expect Richardson to be a workhorse right out of the gates. Widely viewed as the best back to enter the NFL since Adrian Peterson, Richardson is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries as a rookie. Forget about the lack of surrounding talent; Peyton Hillis finished as fantasy No. 2 back in a weaker offense two years ago.

Current ADP: 2.02, 14th overall, RB10

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, RB - The Panthers boast three superstar offensive talents, but this one continues to fly under the radar. Only LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew earned a higher running grade from Pro Football Focus, and Stewart forced more missed tackles in the passing game than any other NFL back. Stewart led the backfield in snaps and was more productive than DeAngelo Williams, but he’s still being drafted as Williams’ backup. Should Williams miss time, Stewart is a must-start RB1 option.

Current ADP: 8.04, 89th overall, RB36

Percy Harvin, Vikings, WR - From late November on, Harvin was utilized as a double-threat on the ground and through the air, turning back the clock to his Gator days as the most explosive player on the field. Harvin averaged 103.3 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per game from Weeks 10-17 while easily establishing career-highs in receptions (87), receiving yards (967), and rushing yards (345) in a 7th-place fantasy finish. With that workload, he’s essentially slump-proof in fantasy terms.

Current ADP: 5.02, 50th overall, WR20

Brandon Lloyd, Patriots, WR - Lloyd finished 25th in fantasy points, getting open at will, despite catching passes from A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens for half the season. The star of offseason practices, Lloyd has made a seamless transition in his former coordinator’s offense, establishing a rapport with Tom Brady. Lloyd should be a lock for double-digit scores as the outside threat Brady has craved since losing Randy Moss.

Current ADP: 5.05, 54th overall, WR21

Sleepers

Jake Locker, Titans, QB - Locker followed up an impressive preseason with a 99.4 passer rating, 8.2 YPA, 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio and dazzling rushing ability in three second-half relief appearances. If his obvious talent edge wins out over Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans have the young offensive playmakers to scorch opposing defenses this season.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 24 QBs

Bernard Scott, Bengals, RB - Scott never seriously challenged Cedric Benson for carries, but he’s expected to be utilized in a committee attack with newly signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis. It won’t take long for the coaching staff to realize Scott offers far more explosiveness as a runner as well as a receiver. By mid-season, Scott should have the reins as the lead back.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 58 RBs.

Kevin Smith, Lions, RB - An intriguing fantasy wildcard with two question marks in front of him in the Detroit backfield, Smith played as well as he ever has after signing in Week 10 last season. Versatile enough to play all three downs as long as his body holds up, Smith is an ideal roster stash as a RB3/4.

Current ADP: 12.10, 149th overall, RB53

Eric Decker, Broncos, WR - Decker ran more routes and caught more passes from Peyton Manning than any Denver receiver this offseason, quickly earning the veteran’s trust. Decker is a good route runner and an underrated athlete with size and special ball skills. Anointed by Kyle Orton as the “ideal” slot receiver last year, Decker is more talented than Manning’s former slot machines, Austin Collie and Brandon Stokley.

Current ADP: 6.06, 69th overall, WR28

Brian Hartline, Dolphins, WR - By default, Hartline is set to take over as the No. 1 receiver in Miami following the Brandon Marshall trade. A complementary receiver to date, Hartline is more athletic than commonly believed -- similar to Jordy Nelson, who broke out with Joe Philbin’s Packers in 2011.

Current ADP: Undrafted out of 63 WRs.

Overvalued

Peyton Manning, Broncos, QB - Arm-strength questions aside, Manning figures to suffer early-season growing pains while developing a rapport with his offensive line, wide receivers, and play caller. Throw in a brutal non-divisional schedule, and the obvious move is to let another owner risk a fifth or sixth-round draft pick on Manning.

Current ADP: 6.02, 63rd overall, QB8

Michael Turner, Falcons, RB - The patron saint of volume runners, Turner was already headed for a reduced workload after fading down the stretch for a second straight season. New coordinator Dirk Koetter plans to operate a more pass-heavy offense, diminishing Turner’s role even further. Heavily dependent on short-yardage scores, Turner is on a crash-course with a season out of LenDale White’s career.

Current ADP: 3.06, 31st overall, RB16

Wes Welker, Patriots, WR - Welker averaged an unsustainable 8.25/120/0.75 line in the first eight games compared to 6.8/71/0.36 the rest of the way -- including 7-of-11 games in which he failed to crack 60 yards. Most troublesome, Welker’s targets didn’t drop in the second half even though his per-play production did. With Brandon Lloyd on board, those targets do figure to go down this season.

Current ADP: 3.04, 28th overall, WR6

Jordy Nelson, Packers, WR - Nelson closed out the season as a top-three fantasy WR due to single coverage, refined route running, explosive run-after-catch ability, increased trust from his QB, Greg Jennings’ late-season knee injury, and -- last but not least -- unsustainable good luck with the deep ball. Pro Football Focus notes that Nelson accrued half of his yards and scores on passes thrown 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s simply not sustainable year-in and year-out.

Current ADP: 4.03, 40th overall, WR14

Jason Witten, Cowboys, TE - On the way to his least productive season since 2007, Witten averaged just 5.8 targets in the second half of the season after seeing 8.9 in the first half. Over the final five games, Witten finished 19th among fantasy tight ends -- behind the likes of Dennis Pitta and Jeremy Shockey. Now a lower-tier TE1, Witten is no longer worth an elite tight end price tag.

Current ADP: 6.11, 74th overall, TE7

Busts

Frank Gore, 49ers, RB - The Niners ran Gore into the ground last October, and he paid for it with a 3.2 yards per carry average while playing through multiple injuries in the second half of the season. Gore no longer has a major role in the passing game, and the 49ers brought in Brandon Jacobs as a short-yardage hammer. Where is the fantasy upside?

Current ADP: 4.02, 39th overall, RB19

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals, RB - A timeshare back about to be exposed outside of the Patriots’ offense. The dictionary definition of a plodder, Green-Ellis didn't have a run over 18 yards last season. If you take away the game where the Jets played seven defensive backs throughout, Green-Ellis’ per-carry average falls below 3.5 yards. You can find backs like this on the waiver wire throughout the season.

Current ADP: 5.05, 53rd overall, RB24

Sidney Rice, Seahawks, WR - How would you feel about taking on the risk of Jahvid Best if he was coming off twin labrum surgeries in his shoulders? If Best is wearing a red flag as an injury risk, Rice is sporting fluorescent hazmat tape after his third concussion in 12 months ended his season prematurely last year.

Current ADP: 8.11, 96th overall, WR37

Brent Celek, Eagles, TE - Celek erupted for 542 of his 811 yards in the second half of the season with Jeremy Maclin injured and DeSean Jackson in the doghouse. With both receivers healthy and poised for bounce-back seasons, Celek will fall back to the third or fourth option in the passing attack.

Current ADP: 13.04, 155th overall, TE15