Draft 2012: The Quarterbacks
What a difference a year makes.
Last draft season, many observers were convinced that Andrew Luck's return to college deprived the 2011 draft class of its only elite quarterback prospect. Fast forward one Cam Newton Rookie of the Year award and 12 months later, and a large chunk of informed analysts believe Luck should be challenged for the top quarterback ranking by the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.
The departure from consensus opinion does not stop there, as some feel the only two quarterbacks worth first-round selections will be drafted with the first two overall picks. Opinions are all across the board on Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden. Sure, fewer teams need quarterbacks compared to last offseason, but it is not farfetched to predict that four signal callers will be drafted on day one. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and other seemingly quarterback-secure teams entering the rookie discussion in an annually unpredictable draft, anything can happen.
As rookie quarterbacks continue to earn playing time sooner each year, it is probable that at least four of the players broken down here will start a game in 2012.
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford
Height/Weight: 6'4/234
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.67
Comparison: Rich Gannon
2011 Stats: 288-of-404 (71.3%) for 3,517 yds (8.71 YPA), 37 TD/10 INT; 3.2 YPC, 2 TD
Draft Prediction: Colts, No. 1 overall
Positives: Luck has fantastic pocket movement, consistently stepping up when facing outside pressure or flowing laterally against interior blitzes. He handles free rushers like a pro by immediately escaping the pocket or delivering a quick throw. One of the few stud QB prospects that is already comfortable from center, Luck's drop steps are very mature and coordinated with proper footwork. It is often overlooked, but Luck consistently delivers crisp passes with sound placement after working through progressions, even in limited space to operate. He is comfortable with anticipation routes after graduating from Stanford's traditional pro-style offense, consistently delivering passes in a catchable area before the receiver's head is turned. Luck protects the ball very well when moving in confined areas, covering it with both hands and dipping his shoulder to evade contact. His motion is incredibly smooth, with no hitches and a top-to-bottom release. Rather than sticking only to open options, Luck gives his receivers the benefit of the doubt if they have a step on the defender in close coverage or in mismatch situations. He isn't going to kill you on the run, but Luck uses his athleticism effectively, climbing the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield or taking the yards the defense gives him. He consistently tests defenses vertically, taking calculated shots in the deep sections of the field.
Negatives: It has been widely discussed that Luck lacks elite arm strength, and while that may or may not be the case, he certainly could follow through more often since some passes are shortarmed. He is a bit cautious in terms of velocity on short to intermediate routes, choosing to take off a few clicks to guide a pass to its target rather than firing a bullet. Luck could also improve his downfield trajectory, as some passes have too much arch. He struggles the most when a quick-hitting play is covered, whether it be a screen pass or an initial target after a three-step drop. Luck tends to panic more than usual in these situations, forcing a throw or losing coordination in his lower body.
Outlook: Luck is not a perfect prospect, but I firmly believe he is in a class of his own in this year's signal-calling crop. In fact, I would put Luck in the "rare" category of draft prospects, a title recently held by only Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh. Luck truly is beyond his years in terms of development by having more play-calling responsibility than numerous starting quarterbacks in the NFL -- with outstanding results. Luck might make it look too easy, and even boring at times with a smooth throwing motion and well-placed throws, but those skills will translate into consistency. Luck may not possess of the upside of Cam Newton or Robert Griffin III in terms of maximizing athletic potential and using it at the quarterback position. However, there is no doubt Luck's game seamlessly translates to NFL competition. Indianapolis will be a tough year-one landing spot, but Luck will instantly become the best player on the Colts' offense.
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Height/Weight: 6'2/223
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.41
Comparison: Michael Vick
2011 Stats: 291-of-402 (72.4%) for 4,293 yds (10.7 YPA), 37 TD/6 INT; 3.9 YPC, 10 TD
Draft Prediction: Redskins, No. 2 overall
Positives: The Heisman winner dominated the Big 12 while showing dramatic improvement from the 2010-2011 season. Griffin is most lethal outside the pocket, keeping his eyes up to stretch defenses laterally then unleashing outstanding vertical bucket throws that always seem to be placed perfectly on the receiver's outside shoulder. Despite rare athleticism, Griffin is a passer first with high intelligence and a great grasp of the game, which has previously been a downfall for dual-threat quarterbacks. Griffin is still a dangerous runner and unafraid of getting skinny between the tackles. He always seems to get the ball out quickly, allowing the receiver to run in open space after the catch. Griffin is very active in the pocket after an initial read, effectively moving zones and spies at the second level to open up passing lanes. In the majority of times he faces edge pressure, Griffin is unafraid of stepping up into the pocket despite inevitable contact. This kind of poise is frequently overlooked, but Griffin is prepared to take a crushing hit if it means buying an extra second for his receiver to separate. The fast-hitting spread offense is common in college, but no one ran it better than Griffin. His timing was crisp despite a furious pace and many drives ended in the endzone after only five or six snaps because of Griffin's willingness to challenge defenses vertically.
Negatives: Despite committing himself as a pass-first quarterback, I still would not call Griffin a true pocket-style thrower. At least not yet. Griffin rarely started from center and it shows in his drops off the snap. His initial steps are ideal but when the first read is covered, the athlete in Griffin often takes over. His steps begin to lack purpose and coordination, with choppy footwork or a single long stride to the next read. These inconsistent movements also materialize occasionally when the pocket closes around him, with Griffin dropping his eye level to check out the pass rush, flashing discomfort in tight spaces. With that said, Griffin has really improved the way he resets after those chaotic instances, though he could do better in feeling backside pressure. I would stop short of saying Griffin has pinpoint accuracy on intermediate routes, but he consistently places passes in a receiver's catch radius, only occasionally missing high. It's nitpicking, but I am not a huge fan of how Griffin holds the ball before his throwing motion; it is very Troy Smith-esque with bowed arms.
Outlook: I had more concern about Griffin's future before the Redskins traded up. A team should craft its offensive style to fit the quarterback's skills, but I would have questioned Griffin's future if forced to solely work in the pocket. There is no doubt he works well on the move and makes exceptional throws, but it is tough to overlook the moments when his footwork gets chaotic -- focusing more on the closing pocket than downfield targets. Griffin's fit in D.C. could not be better. His sometimes-erratic movements may become an advantage under the Shanahans, who prefer mobile quarterbacks in order to stretch the defense. It is going to be a fun ride watching a player with Griffin's mix of athleticism and mental capacity develop in an offense that fits his talents like a glove.
3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.62
Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
2011 Stats: 327-of-521 (62.3%) for 3,744 yds (7.19 YPA), 29 TD/15 INT; 5.3 YPC, 4 TD
Draft Prediction: Dolphins, No. 8 overall
Positives: Behind only Luck, Tannehill possesses the best poise and pocket movement in this year's class. Tannehill stands calmly between the tackles, evading pass rushers like a seasoned veteran. The Texas A&M offense showcases skills that project into an NFL offense, requiring the quarterback to drop from center and read route progressions that include anticipation throws. Tannehill did this remarkably well. No receiver group in the country let its quarterback down more last year than Tannehill's, consistently dropping routine catches while losing the majority of 50/50 balls. Tannehill unabashedly put them in playmaking situations, but was rarely rewarded. Faith in his surroundings and short-term memory will aid Tannehill in the pros. He flashes multiple anticipation throws in every game and shines on intermediate comeback routes along the sideline. It all starts with Tannehill's compact motion, quick release, and comfort in a closing pocket. Don't sleep on his running ability, but the former quarterback-to-receiver-to-quarterback convert is without a doubt a pocket passer by nature.
Negatives: Tannehill made only 19 quarterback starts after amassing 112 receptions and 1,596 receiving yards at receiver. Whether his play directly impacted the results or not, Texas A&M lost a handful of games last season despite late fourth-quarter leads. Tannehill's release is not the ideal, top-to-bottom motion that coaches covet, though it is consistent and generates plenty of velocity. Tannehill flashes his immaturity when reading progressions, making a couple of poor throws into disguised coverage in each contest. Some throws are rushed due to backside pressure, and Tannehill does have a tendency to hold onto the ball a bit too long when moving laterally with his eyes downfield.
Outlook: Despite common perception, Tannehill is neither a project nor raw. His command and control of the pocket rival top prospects in previous classes. I do not see the multitude of poor reads and throws others seem to perceive. In fact, the way in which Tannehill succeeded at receiver while attending both position meetings and instantly flashing mature quarterback qualities is stunning. After viewing 12 of Tannehill's 19 starts, he ranks as my eighth overall player, and I'd bang the table for the Browns to draft him with the fourth selection. Tannehill may ultimately land with college coach Mike Sherman, who's now the offensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins. Sherman, of course, helped shape the game of Aaron Rodgers, with whom Tannehill shares a similar playing style. It will not take Tannehill three years to develop, though, and I'd wager he starts early and finds success much sooner than others project. He has every trait that a quality QB must possess and graduated from an offense that used many NFL principles. If you cannot get over the facts that he was a successful receiver, has a relatively limited number of quarterback starts, and his team relinquished late-game leads, I implore you to dig below the surface.
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4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.87
Comparison: Kyle Orton
2011 Stats: 408-of-564 (72.3%) for 4,727 yds (8.38 YPA), 37 TD/13 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Browns, 22nd overall
Positives: Weeden had total command of Oklahoma State's quick-hit offense as a two-year starter. When watching game tape, it becomes instantly clear that Weeden is unafraid of placing footballs into tight windows, especially in the middle of the field. His touch is fantastic, putting just enough velocity on passes to shade them toward his target. Weeden shines on 15-yard in-routes over the middle, especially versus zone coverage. He repeatedly made this throw during Senior Bowl week, with his favorite target being Arkansas WR Joe Adams. Weeden is certainly capable of placing sideline throws on the receiver's outside shoulder with good, but not outstanding, velocity. These throws are consistently on a rope and allow receivers to continue their upfield momentum after the catch. Instant pressure does not faze him; Weeden connects on bail-out throws quickly. Having a dominant college receiver is always nice, but I would not be surprised if Weeden actually has more success without Justin Blackmon. He seemed more confident when he could file through the route progressions rather than force throws to a single target dictated by pre-snap coverage.
Negatives: Weeden is 28 years old after a failed baseball career. When highlighting only on-field attributes, Weeden has a deficiency in one major area. Even without pressure, Weeden gets too complacent at times. He throws off his back foot on quick-breaking routes or when trying to buy an extra step versus interior pressure, failing to exhibit the same poise he flashes in a confined or clean pocket. Along with his tendency to fade from the line at times, Weeden occasionally incorporates an off-hand tap which could be used as a "tell" to reveal the target he's locked onto. Sideline bucket throws aren't Weeden's specialty, as he tends to lob them too much, resulting in slight underthrows. Weeden goes through progressions when the situation calls for it, but the reads can be a bit mechanical instead of fluidly diagnosing the coverage.
Outlook: Call me crazy, but I think Weeden suffered from the Blackmon effect at times. A good number of his interceptions came from drifting away from the pocket and throwing the ball up for grabs, usually in Blackmon's direction. Weeden consistently thrived in situations where he chose the target based on what he saw in coverage, rather than coverage choosing the target pre-snap. Weeden's footwork from center was shaky at the Senior Bowl, but he continued to improve each day. It is not a stretch to believe that the backwards momentum from center will help propel him to step up in the pocket versus edge pressure. For a team that believes Weeden can start early and effectively, age should not be a major issue. Those quarterback-needy teams do not have the luxury to wait on a young signal caller. It is tough to project Weeden into a specific NFL offense, but I see Cleveland as a solid fit where Weeden could produce like a quality starter at pick number 22 or early in the second round.
5. B.J. Coleman, UT-Chattanooga
Height/Weight: 6'3/233
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: N/A
Comparison: Jason Campbell
2011 Stats: 137-of-225 (60.9%) for 1,527 yds (6.79 YPA), 9 TD/9 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Broncos, No. 108 overall
Positives: Before transferring into the FCS, Coleman attended the University of Tennessee where he studied film of Peyton Manning. And it shows in his subtle movements, in-pocket tendencies, and throwing motion. This helps define Coleman: He's a true student of the game who transferred down a level of competition to maximize his playing time. Coleman loves the pump fake, utilizing it to move coverage before showcasing NFL-level velocity. Coleman was the only player during East-West Shrine week that displayed pro arm talent. He climbs the pocket well and consistently steps toward his target. Coleman is not the typical small-school prospect, as he has experience changing line calls pre-snap and was asked to complete multiple anticipation throws to targets in windows, which he did effectively. Coleman also flashes downfield passing ability, but those vertical routes succeed far more often when his timing is on point.
Negatives: Coleman tends to aim throws rather than trust his control, leading to sporadic ball placement on intermediate routes. Despite an excellent skill set, he never managed a high completion percentage which is a bit worrisome when considering the lower level of competition. In fact, some games Coleman completely lost it, throwing nine interceptions in a two-game stretch during his junior season. The picks resulted from drifting away from the pocket when facing interior pressure. It is evident Coleman has a grasp for the offense, but his second and third reads never look as clean as the first.
Outlook: Coleman is an excellent contender to hold a clipboard for a few years while potentially developing into a low-end starter down the line. Despite starting for three seasons in college, he still has some discomfort and uneasiness to his game but plenty of talent that NFL coaches can mold. It is frustrating to see, because I think Coleman is on the cusp of grasping and processing the game quickly. He stood out during Shrine week, and even if Coleman never starts he has an excellent foundation as a backup quarterback.
6. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
Height/Weight: 5'11/204
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.55
Comparison: Seneca Wallace
2011 Stats: 225-of-309 (72.8%) for 3,175 yds (10.3 YPA), 33 TD/4 INT; 6 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Panthers, No. 143 overall
Positives/Negatives: Seemingly in college forever, Wilson gave up a promising baseball career to focus on football and shined in his only season in Madison. Wilson flashes tremendous comfort in the pocket and is unafraid of working through progressions, even testing the opposite side of the field. His top- to-bottom release helps calm the height questions, especially after playing behind a massive Badgers offensive line. Wilson panics a bit when his first read is covered, drifting out of the pocket and thinking he has to buy extra time when it's not the case. Wilson does reset well after moving laterally, but in order to maximize his limited velocity he needs to always step into throws. He is a very consistent thrower that can improve his poise when reading progressions after the initial target is covered.
Outlook: I doubt Wilson will ever be asked to be more than a spot starter and NFL backup, but those are two roles he can fill immediately. There are plenty of areas to improve when considering anticipation and comfort in closed spaces, but Wilson will have a long career as a backup.
7. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
Height/Weight: 6'3/214
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.93
Comparison: Colt McCoy
2011 Stats: 267-of-419 (63.7%) for 3,316 yds (7.91 YPA), 25 TD/10 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chiefs, No. 74 overall
Positives/Negatives: A what you see is what you get player, Cousins is solid and dependable if expectations are dampened. He frequently checks out the collapsing pocket but stands in it, albeit tentatively. Cousins has experienced footwork from center, but the steps look tight and he throws off his back foot when a rusher is closing in. Cousins' arm talent is adequate at best, having to charge into outside or downfield throws, but even these attempts tend to lack ideal velocity. Michigan State's pass catchers -- three of whom will be drafted -- consistently bailed Cousins out of tough situations, winning up-for-grabs balls. Anything within 12 yards can be efficient, but there is certainly a possibility Cousins becomes the next "Captain Checkdown." He flashes commendable pocket movement at times, pressing off his back foot on a second or third read.
Outlook: Cousins is a game manager with an excellent attitude, but will need to enter a controlled environment to succeed. He certainly could keep a game going, but if Cousins was ever asked to start a game the team should look to replace him. His dynamic personality is a trait some team may love, though.
8. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
Height/Weight: 6'4/229
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.90
Comparison: John Skelton
2011 Stats: 237-of-447 (52.3%) for 3,153 yds (7.05 YPA), 23 TD/8 INT; 0 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Packers, No. 163 overall
Positives/Negatives: A hot-and-cold passer, Lindley is a conundrum to evaluate. He gets out of center too slowly with a noticeable hitch in his first step, but climbs the pocket nicely after planting off his back foot. If he is given a clean pocket, Lindley completes throws all over the field with a mechanical motion and release. These passes certainly appear NFL caliber, with stick throws into tight windows after briefly looking off coverage. However, Lindley's feet get frenetic as soon as the pocket starts to crumble and he will never look graceful moving laterally. During Senior Bowl week, Lindley struggled immensely, shortarming throws and showing little touch even on intermediate passes. With all that said, it is exciting to see Lindley consistently challenge deep coverage and it is obvious he is confident in his arm. More often than not, however, that confidence gets him in trouble.
Outlook: A favorite of NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Lindley could be this year's T.J. Yates. He overthrows far too many vertical routes and lacks accuracy downfield, but Lindley has a short memory and an arm to build on.
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9. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State
Height/Weight: 6'7/242
College Experience: Third-year junior
40 Time: 4.94
Comparison: Andre Woodson
2010 Stats: 326-of-516 (63.2%) for 4,036 yds (7.82 YPA), 26 TD/13 INT; 3 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Bills, No. 71 overall
Positives/Negatives: Despite standing like a giant in the pocket, Osweiler possesses deceiving mobility and coordination in his lower body, but his low delivery limits his motion to that of a 6-foot-3 quarterback. Not only does Osweiler's release decimate his velocity, which is only adequate despite his size, his release point incredibly erratic. This inconsistent motion leads to poor placement, frequently forcing receivers to adjust their routes even on short or intermediate throws. Osweiler's movement in the pocket is not refined and he lacks an overall consistency to his game.
Outlook: Some believe Osweiler, a former basketball recruit, is a moldable athlete they can transform into a future starter. I don't buy it. It is not easy to completely rebuild a quarterback from the foundation, which Osweiler needs, even if they bring an extraordinary work ethic. At least the late first-round discussion has considerably died down. He's more of a mid- to late-round flier.
10. Nick Foles, Arizona
Height/Weight: 6'5/243
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
40 Time: 5.14
Comparison: Trent Edwards
2010 Stats: 387-of-560 (69.1%) for 4,334 yds (7.74 YPA), 28 TD/14 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chargers, No. 183 overall
Positives/Negatives: A quarterback that has plenty of arm to test the field vertically, Foles lacks coordination throughout his game. To start, his feet and shoulders look like they are located on separate planes during his drop, and his wind-up release where he drops the ball to his shoulder is not any better. There are flashes of Foles wanting to work in the pocket, inching toward the line of scrimmage, but he always ends up firing a pass in a collapsed pocket. Like most quarterbacks, if the first option is open Foles can hit him, but even with the appropriate time he has to torque his shoulders on outside throws. Severely lacking touch, consistent accuracy, and coordination leaves Foles with an NFL projection of a deep reserve.
Outlook: Frequently, but appropriately, overlooked in the Pac 12, Foles will not have much to offer at the professional level. His movement is limited and his accuracy is adequate at best.
11. Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi - 6'2/219 ... Former walk-on ... Multi-year starter that broke many of Brett Favre's records ... Lacks velocity but mobile with sound accuracy ... Willing to work through progressions.
12. Aaron Corp, Richmond - 6'4/215 ... Transferred from USC after losing starting job to Matt Barkley ... Did not dominate FCS competition ... Thin frame with a suspect arm, but experienced and athletic.
13. Kellen Moore, Boise State - 6'0/197 ... Four-year starter and all-time FBS leader in wins... 142:28 career TD-to-INT ratio ... Could not cut the wind on sideline throws at the Senior Bowl; arm talent looked out of place.
14. G.J. Kinne, Tulsa - 6'2/235 ... Moves similarly to Jeff Garcia ... Confident in pocket with enough velocity but tremendously lacks accuracy past short throws ... Unorthodox style in terms of being off balance when releasing the ball.
15. John Brantley, Florida - 6'3/219 ... Severely overrated coming out of high school and underwhelmed at Florida ... Benched on multiple occasions in favor of sub-packages ... Wind-up release and drops the ball below shoulder, erratic accuracy.
Other QBs with an outside shot to be drafted: Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois), Case Keenum (Houston), Tyler Hansen (Colorado), Jordan Jefferson (LSU), Jacory Harris (Miami), Patrick Witt (Yale), Darron Thomas (Oregon), Dominique Davis (ECU).
What a difference a year makes.
Last draft season, many observers were convinced that Andrew Luck's return to college deprived the 2011 draft class of its only elite quarterback prospect. Fast forward one Cam Newton Rookie of the Year award and 12 months later, and a large chunk of informed analysts believe Luck should be challenged for the top quarterback ranking by the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.
The departure from consensus opinion does not stop there, as some feel the only two quarterbacks worth first-round selections will be drafted with the first two overall picks. Opinions are all across the board on Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden. Sure, fewer teams need quarterbacks compared to last offseason, but it is not farfetched to predict that four signal callers will be drafted on day one. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and other seemingly quarterback-secure teams entering the rookie discussion in an annually unpredictable draft, anything can happen.
As rookie quarterbacks continue to earn playing time sooner each year, it is probable that at least four of the players broken down here will start a game in 2012.
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford
Height/Weight: 6'4/234
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.67
Comparison: Rich Gannon
2011 Stats: 288-of-404 (71.3%) for 3,517 yds (8.71 YPA), 37 TD/10 INT; 3.2 YPC, 2 TD
Draft Prediction: Colts, No. 1 overall
Positives: Luck has fantastic pocket movement, consistently stepping up when facing outside pressure or flowing laterally against interior blitzes. He handles free rushers like a pro by immediately escaping the pocket or delivering a quick throw. One of the few stud QB prospects that is already comfortable from center, Luck's drop steps are very mature and coordinated with proper footwork. It is often overlooked, but Luck consistently delivers crisp passes with sound placement after working through progressions, even in limited space to operate. He is comfortable with anticipation routes after graduating from Stanford's traditional pro-style offense, consistently delivering passes in a catchable area before the receiver's head is turned. Luck protects the ball very well when moving in confined areas, covering it with both hands and dipping his shoulder to evade contact. His motion is incredibly smooth, with no hitches and a top-to-bottom release. Rather than sticking only to open options, Luck gives his receivers the benefit of the doubt if they have a step on the defender in close coverage or in mismatch situations. He isn't going to kill you on the run, but Luck uses his athleticism effectively, climbing the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield or taking the yards the defense gives him. He consistently tests defenses vertically, taking calculated shots in the deep sections of the field.
Negatives: It has been widely discussed that Luck lacks elite arm strength, and while that may or may not be the case, he certainly could follow through more often since some passes are shortarmed. He is a bit cautious in terms of velocity on short to intermediate routes, choosing to take off a few clicks to guide a pass to its target rather than firing a bullet. Luck could also improve his downfield trajectory, as some passes have too much arch. He struggles the most when a quick-hitting play is covered, whether it be a screen pass or an initial target after a three-step drop. Luck tends to panic more than usual in these situations, forcing a throw or losing coordination in his lower body.
Outlook: Luck is not a perfect prospect, but I firmly believe he is in a class of his own in this year's signal-calling crop. In fact, I would put Luck in the "rare" category of draft prospects, a title recently held by only Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh. Luck truly is beyond his years in terms of development by having more play-calling responsibility than numerous starting quarterbacks in the NFL -- with outstanding results. Luck might make it look too easy, and even boring at times with a smooth throwing motion and well-placed throws, but those skills will translate into consistency. Luck may not possess of the upside of Cam Newton or Robert Griffin III in terms of maximizing athletic potential and using it at the quarterback position. However, there is no doubt Luck's game seamlessly translates to NFL competition. Indianapolis will be a tough year-one landing spot, but Luck will instantly become the best player on the Colts' offense.
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Height/Weight: 6'2/223
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.41
Comparison: Michael Vick
2011 Stats: 291-of-402 (72.4%) for 4,293 yds (10.7 YPA), 37 TD/6 INT; 3.9 YPC, 10 TD
Draft Prediction: Redskins, No. 2 overall
Positives: The Heisman winner dominated the Big 12 while showing dramatic improvement from the 2010-2011 season. Griffin is most lethal outside the pocket, keeping his eyes up to stretch defenses laterally then unleashing outstanding vertical bucket throws that always seem to be placed perfectly on the receiver's outside shoulder. Despite rare athleticism, Griffin is a passer first with high intelligence and a great grasp of the game, which has previously been a downfall for dual-threat quarterbacks. Griffin is still a dangerous runner and unafraid of getting skinny between the tackles. He always seems to get the ball out quickly, allowing the receiver to run in open space after the catch. Griffin is very active in the pocket after an initial read, effectively moving zones and spies at the second level to open up passing lanes. In the majority of times he faces edge pressure, Griffin is unafraid of stepping up into the pocket despite inevitable contact. This kind of poise is frequently overlooked, but Griffin is prepared to take a crushing hit if it means buying an extra second for his receiver to separate. The fast-hitting spread offense is common in college, but no one ran it better than Griffin. His timing was crisp despite a furious pace and many drives ended in the endzone after only five or six snaps because of Griffin's willingness to challenge defenses vertically.
Negatives: Despite committing himself as a pass-first quarterback, I still would not call Griffin a true pocket-style thrower. At least not yet. Griffin rarely started from center and it shows in his drops off the snap. His initial steps are ideal but when the first read is covered, the athlete in Griffin often takes over. His steps begin to lack purpose and coordination, with choppy footwork or a single long stride to the next read. These inconsistent movements also materialize occasionally when the pocket closes around him, with Griffin dropping his eye level to check out the pass rush, flashing discomfort in tight spaces. With that said, Griffin has really improved the way he resets after those chaotic instances, though he could do better in feeling backside pressure. I would stop short of saying Griffin has pinpoint accuracy on intermediate routes, but he consistently places passes in a receiver's catch radius, only occasionally missing high. It's nitpicking, but I am not a huge fan of how Griffin holds the ball before his throwing motion; it is very Troy Smith-esque with bowed arms.
Outlook: I had more concern about Griffin's future before the Redskins traded up. A team should craft its offensive style to fit the quarterback's skills, but I would have questioned Griffin's future if forced to solely work in the pocket. There is no doubt he works well on the move and makes exceptional throws, but it is tough to overlook the moments when his footwork gets chaotic -- focusing more on the closing pocket than downfield targets. Griffin's fit in D.C. could not be better. His sometimes-erratic movements may become an advantage under the Shanahans, who prefer mobile quarterbacks in order to stretch the defense. It is going to be a fun ride watching a player with Griffin's mix of athleticism and mental capacity develop in an offense that fits his talents like a glove.
3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.62
Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
2011 Stats: 327-of-521 (62.3%) for 3,744 yds (7.19 YPA), 29 TD/15 INT; 5.3 YPC, 4 TD
Draft Prediction: Dolphins, No. 8 overall
Positives: Behind only Luck, Tannehill possesses the best poise and pocket movement in this year's class. Tannehill stands calmly between the tackles, evading pass rushers like a seasoned veteran. The Texas A&M offense showcases skills that project into an NFL offense, requiring the quarterback to drop from center and read route progressions that include anticipation throws. Tannehill did this remarkably well. No receiver group in the country let its quarterback down more last year than Tannehill's, consistently dropping routine catches while losing the majority of 50/50 balls. Tannehill unabashedly put them in playmaking situations, but was rarely rewarded. Faith in his surroundings and short-term memory will aid Tannehill in the pros. He flashes multiple anticipation throws in every game and shines on intermediate comeback routes along the sideline. It all starts with Tannehill's compact motion, quick release, and comfort in a closing pocket. Don't sleep on his running ability, but the former quarterback-to-receiver-to-quarterback convert is without a doubt a pocket passer by nature.
Negatives: Tannehill made only 19 quarterback starts after amassing 112 receptions and 1,596 receiving yards at receiver. Whether his play directly impacted the results or not, Texas A&M lost a handful of games last season despite late fourth-quarter leads. Tannehill's release is not the ideal, top-to-bottom motion that coaches covet, though it is consistent and generates plenty of velocity. Tannehill flashes his immaturity when reading progressions, making a couple of poor throws into disguised coverage in each contest. Some throws are rushed due to backside pressure, and Tannehill does have a tendency to hold onto the ball a bit too long when moving laterally with his eyes downfield.
Outlook: Despite common perception, Tannehill is neither a project nor raw. His command and control of the pocket rival top prospects in previous classes. I do not see the multitude of poor reads and throws others seem to perceive. In fact, the way in which Tannehill succeeded at receiver while attending both position meetings and instantly flashing mature quarterback qualities is stunning. After viewing 12 of Tannehill's 19 starts, he ranks as my eighth overall player, and I'd bang the table for the Browns to draft him with the fourth selection. Tannehill may ultimately land with college coach Mike Sherman, who's now the offensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins. Sherman, of course, helped shape the game of Aaron Rodgers, with whom Tannehill shares a similar playing style. It will not take Tannehill three years to develop, though, and I'd wager he starts early and finds success much sooner than others project. He has every trait that a quality QB must possess and graduated from an offense that used many NFL principles. If you cannot get over the facts that he was a successful receiver, has a relatively limited number of quarterback starts, and his team relinquished late-game leads, I implore you to dig below the surface.
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4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.87
Comparison: Kyle Orton
2011 Stats: 408-of-564 (72.3%) for 4,727 yds (8.38 YPA), 37 TD/13 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Browns, 22nd overall
Positives: Weeden had total command of Oklahoma State's quick-hit offense as a two-year starter. When watching game tape, it becomes instantly clear that Weeden is unafraid of placing footballs into tight windows, especially in the middle of the field. His touch is fantastic, putting just enough velocity on passes to shade them toward his target. Weeden shines on 15-yard in-routes over the middle, especially versus zone coverage. He repeatedly made this throw during Senior Bowl week, with his favorite target being Arkansas WR Joe Adams. Weeden is certainly capable of placing sideline throws on the receiver's outside shoulder with good, but not outstanding, velocity. These throws are consistently on a rope and allow receivers to continue their upfield momentum after the catch. Instant pressure does not faze him; Weeden connects on bail-out throws quickly. Having a dominant college receiver is always nice, but I would not be surprised if Weeden actually has more success without Justin Blackmon. He seemed more confident when he could file through the route progressions rather than force throws to a single target dictated by pre-snap coverage.
Negatives: Weeden is 28 years old after a failed baseball career. When highlighting only on-field attributes, Weeden has a deficiency in one major area. Even without pressure, Weeden gets too complacent at times. He throws off his back foot on quick-breaking routes or when trying to buy an extra step versus interior pressure, failing to exhibit the same poise he flashes in a confined or clean pocket. Along with his tendency to fade from the line at times, Weeden occasionally incorporates an off-hand tap which could be used as a "tell" to reveal the target he's locked onto. Sideline bucket throws aren't Weeden's specialty, as he tends to lob them too much, resulting in slight underthrows. Weeden goes through progressions when the situation calls for it, but the reads can be a bit mechanical instead of fluidly diagnosing the coverage.
Outlook: Call me crazy, but I think Weeden suffered from the Blackmon effect at times. A good number of his interceptions came from drifting away from the pocket and throwing the ball up for grabs, usually in Blackmon's direction. Weeden consistently thrived in situations where he chose the target based on what he saw in coverage, rather than coverage choosing the target pre-snap. Weeden's footwork from center was shaky at the Senior Bowl, but he continued to improve each day. It is not a stretch to believe that the backwards momentum from center will help propel him to step up in the pocket versus edge pressure. For a team that believes Weeden can start early and effectively, age should not be a major issue. Those quarterback-needy teams do not have the luxury to wait on a young signal caller. It is tough to project Weeden into a specific NFL offense, but I see Cleveland as a solid fit where Weeden could produce like a quality starter at pick number 22 or early in the second round.
5. B.J. Coleman, UT-Chattanooga
Height/Weight: 6'3/233
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: N/A
Comparison: Jason Campbell
2011 Stats: 137-of-225 (60.9%) for 1,527 yds (6.79 YPA), 9 TD/9 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Broncos, No. 108 overall
Positives: Before transferring into the FCS, Coleman attended the University of Tennessee where he studied film of Peyton Manning. And it shows in his subtle movements, in-pocket tendencies, and throwing motion. This helps define Coleman: He's a true student of the game who transferred down a level of competition to maximize his playing time. Coleman loves the pump fake, utilizing it to move coverage before showcasing NFL-level velocity. Coleman was the only player during East-West Shrine week that displayed pro arm talent. He climbs the pocket well and consistently steps toward his target. Coleman is not the typical small-school prospect, as he has experience changing line calls pre-snap and was asked to complete multiple anticipation throws to targets in windows, which he did effectively. Coleman also flashes downfield passing ability, but those vertical routes succeed far more often when his timing is on point.
Negatives: Coleman tends to aim throws rather than trust his control, leading to sporadic ball placement on intermediate routes. Despite an excellent skill set, he never managed a high completion percentage which is a bit worrisome when considering the lower level of competition. In fact, some games Coleman completely lost it, throwing nine interceptions in a two-game stretch during his junior season. The picks resulted from drifting away from the pocket when facing interior pressure. It is evident Coleman has a grasp for the offense, but his second and third reads never look as clean as the first.
Outlook: Coleman is an excellent contender to hold a clipboard for a few years while potentially developing into a low-end starter down the line. Despite starting for three seasons in college, he still has some discomfort and uneasiness to his game but plenty of talent that NFL coaches can mold. It is frustrating to see, because I think Coleman is on the cusp of grasping and processing the game quickly. He stood out during Shrine week, and even if Coleman never starts he has an excellent foundation as a backup quarterback.
6. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
Height/Weight: 5'11/204
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.55
Comparison: Seneca Wallace
2011 Stats: 225-of-309 (72.8%) for 3,175 yds (10.3 YPA), 33 TD/4 INT; 6 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Panthers, No. 143 overall
Positives/Negatives: Seemingly in college forever, Wilson gave up a promising baseball career to focus on football and shined in his only season in Madison. Wilson flashes tremendous comfort in the pocket and is unafraid of working through progressions, even testing the opposite side of the field. His top- to-bottom release helps calm the height questions, especially after playing behind a massive Badgers offensive line. Wilson panics a bit when his first read is covered, drifting out of the pocket and thinking he has to buy extra time when it's not the case. Wilson does reset well after moving laterally, but in order to maximize his limited velocity he needs to always step into throws. He is a very consistent thrower that can improve his poise when reading progressions after the initial target is covered.
Outlook: I doubt Wilson will ever be asked to be more than a spot starter and NFL backup, but those are two roles he can fill immediately. There are plenty of areas to improve when considering anticipation and comfort in closed spaces, but Wilson will have a long career as a backup.
7. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
Height/Weight: 6'3/214
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.93
Comparison: Colt McCoy
2011 Stats: 267-of-419 (63.7%) for 3,316 yds (7.91 YPA), 25 TD/10 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chiefs, No. 74 overall
Positives/Negatives: A what you see is what you get player, Cousins is solid and dependable if expectations are dampened. He frequently checks out the collapsing pocket but stands in it, albeit tentatively. Cousins has experienced footwork from center, but the steps look tight and he throws off his back foot when a rusher is closing in. Cousins' arm talent is adequate at best, having to charge into outside or downfield throws, but even these attempts tend to lack ideal velocity. Michigan State's pass catchers -- three of whom will be drafted -- consistently bailed Cousins out of tough situations, winning up-for-grabs balls. Anything within 12 yards can be efficient, but there is certainly a possibility Cousins becomes the next "Captain Checkdown." He flashes commendable pocket movement at times, pressing off his back foot on a second or third read.
Outlook: Cousins is a game manager with an excellent attitude, but will need to enter a controlled environment to succeed. He certainly could keep a game going, but if Cousins was ever asked to start a game the team should look to replace him. His dynamic personality is a trait some team may love, though.
8. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
Height/Weight: 6'4/229
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.90
Comparison: John Skelton
2011 Stats: 237-of-447 (52.3%) for 3,153 yds (7.05 YPA), 23 TD/8 INT; 0 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Packers, No. 163 overall
Positives/Negatives: A hot-and-cold passer, Lindley is a conundrum to evaluate. He gets out of center too slowly with a noticeable hitch in his first step, but climbs the pocket nicely after planting off his back foot. If he is given a clean pocket, Lindley completes throws all over the field with a mechanical motion and release. These passes certainly appear NFL caliber, with stick throws into tight windows after briefly looking off coverage. However, Lindley's feet get frenetic as soon as the pocket starts to crumble and he will never look graceful moving laterally. During Senior Bowl week, Lindley struggled immensely, shortarming throws and showing little touch even on intermediate passes. With all that said, it is exciting to see Lindley consistently challenge deep coverage and it is obvious he is confident in his arm. More often than not, however, that confidence gets him in trouble.
Outlook: A favorite of NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Lindley could be this year's T.J. Yates. He overthrows far too many vertical routes and lacks accuracy downfield, but Lindley has a short memory and an arm to build on.
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9. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State
Height/Weight: 6'7/242
College Experience: Third-year junior
40 Time: 4.94
Comparison: Andre Woodson
2010 Stats: 326-of-516 (63.2%) for 4,036 yds (7.82 YPA), 26 TD/13 INT; 3 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Bills, No. 71 overall
Positives/Negatives: Despite standing like a giant in the pocket, Osweiler possesses deceiving mobility and coordination in his lower body, but his low delivery limits his motion to that of a 6-foot-3 quarterback. Not only does Osweiler's release decimate his velocity, which is only adequate despite his size, his release point incredibly erratic. This inconsistent motion leads to poor placement, frequently forcing receivers to adjust their routes even on short or intermediate throws. Osweiler's movement in the pocket is not refined and he lacks an overall consistency to his game.
Outlook: Some believe Osweiler, a former basketball recruit, is a moldable athlete they can transform into a future starter. I don't buy it. It is not easy to completely rebuild a quarterback from the foundation, which Osweiler needs, even if they bring an extraordinary work ethic. At least the late first-round discussion has considerably died down. He's more of a mid- to late-round flier.
10. Nick Foles, Arizona
Height/Weight: 6'5/243
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
40 Time: 5.14
Comparison: Trent Edwards
2010 Stats: 387-of-560 (69.1%) for 4,334 yds (7.74 YPA), 28 TD/14 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chargers, No. 183 overall
Positives/Negatives: A quarterback that has plenty of arm to test the field vertically, Foles lacks coordination throughout his game. To start, his feet and shoulders look like they are located on separate planes during his drop, and his wind-up release where he drops the ball to his shoulder is not any better. There are flashes of Foles wanting to work in the pocket, inching toward the line of scrimmage, but he always ends up firing a pass in a collapsed pocket. Like most quarterbacks, if the first option is open Foles can hit him, but even with the appropriate time he has to torque his shoulders on outside throws. Severely lacking touch, consistent accuracy, and coordination leaves Foles with an NFL projection of a deep reserve.
Outlook: Frequently, but appropriately, overlooked in the Pac 12, Foles will not have much to offer at the professional level. His movement is limited and his accuracy is adequate at best.
11. Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi - 6'2/219 ... Former walk-on ... Multi-year starter that broke many of Brett Favre's records ... Lacks velocity but mobile with sound accuracy ... Willing to work through progressions.
12. Aaron Corp, Richmond - 6'4/215 ... Transferred from USC after losing starting job to Matt Barkley ... Did not dominate FCS competition ... Thin frame with a suspect arm, but experienced and athletic.
13. Kellen Moore, Boise State - 6'0/197 ... Four-year starter and all-time FBS leader in wins... 142:28 career TD-to-INT ratio ... Could not cut the wind on sideline throws at the Senior Bowl; arm talent looked out of place.
14. G.J. Kinne, Tulsa - 6'2/235 ... Moves similarly to Jeff Garcia ... Confident in pocket with enough velocity but tremendously lacks accuracy past short throws ... Unorthodox style in terms of being off balance when releasing the ball.
15. John Brantley, Florida - 6'3/219 ... Severely overrated coming out of high school and underwhelmed at Florida ... Benched on multiple occasions in favor of sub-packages ... Wind-up release and drops the ball below shoulder, erratic accuracy.
Other QBs with an outside shot to be drafted: Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois), Case Keenum (Houston), Tyler Hansen (Colorado), Jordan Jefferson (LSU), Jacory Harris (Miami), Patrick Witt (Yale), Darron Thomas (Oregon), Dominique Davis (ECU).
