NFL Fantasy News 2012

HacheMan · Nov 6, 2012

2012 ranks: Isaac Redman on the radar

Eric Karabell

Trading time is fast and furious as those in ESPN leagues make last-ditch efforts to improve their teams. After all, we're in November and the trade deadline for those in standard leagues is a mere two weeks away. Don't wait too long! We're here to help with our end-of-season rankings. Look for the ESPN Fantasy Week 10 rankings to be published Wednesday.
[h=3]Top 40 Quarterbacks[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	1
2	Drew Brees	NO	2
3	Tom Brady	NE	3
4	Peyton Manning	Den	6
5	Matt Ryan	Atl	5
6	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	4
7	Andrew Luck	Ind	9
8	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	8
9	Eli Manning	NYG	7
10	Matthew Stafford	Det	10
11	Josh Freeman	TB	14
12	Cam Newton	Car	11
13	Tony Romo	Dal	12
14	Michael Vick	Phi	13
15	Philip Rivers	SD	15
16	Jay Cutler	Chi	16
17	Matt Schaub	Hou	17
18	Carson Palmer	Oak	22
19	Joe Flacco	Bal	18
20	Andy Dalton	Cin	19
21	Christian Ponder	Min	20
22	Brandon Weeden	Cle	21
23	Alex Smith	SF	23
24	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	24
25	Ryan Tannehill	Mia	27
26	Sam Bradford	StL	25
27	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	26
28	Russell Wilson	Sea	30
29	Blaine Gabbert	Jac	29
30	Matt Hasselbeck	Ten	28
31	John Skelton	Ari	32
32	Matt Cassel	KC	31
33	Jake Locker	Ten	33
34	Tim Tebow	NYJ	34
35	Nick Foles	Phi	35
36	Matt Moore	Mia	36
37	Colin Kaepernick	SF	37
38	Kevin Kolb	Ari	38
39	Brady Quinn	KC	39
40	Matt Flynn	Sea	40

The first noteworthy changes at this position come courtesy of the Manning brothers. Although Denver Broncos quarterback -- still seems weird that he's not on the Indianapolis Colts, no? -- Peyton Manning continues to exceed any reasonable expectations with his fifth consecutive game of precisely three touchdown passes, little brother Eli Manning has consecutive single-digit games in fantasy points. Really, even before this stretch, the New York Giants Super Bowl hero was struggling a bit, outside of the many passing yards (he's second to Drew Brees). Don't dump Manning, though. He does drop a few spots here, but he remains in the top 10 based on his track record. Plus, has Matthew Stafford really been good enough to move past him? What about Cam Newton?

As noted in Sunday night's Four Downs blog entry, the current Colts quarterback, Andrew Luck, who has exactly the same number of passing yards as the aforementioned Peyton Manning, moves up into an even safer range as a fantasy starter. Luck versus fellow rookie Robert Griffin III is a good fantasy debate at this point -- not in real life for wins and losses, just in performance -- and not just for top rookie honors (Doug Martin also will have a strong say in this). Griffin didn't record a touchdown Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, which is disappointing, but it was nice to see him run the ball 11 times for 53 yards. For now, that's the differentiator, although they're headed in different directions.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman keeps movin' on up, and -- based on his team's friendly schedule and the fact that his running back has 83 fantasy points in his past two games -- it's hardly unreasonable to select Freeman as your weekly starter. The other big mover of the week comes from Oakland, where Carson Palmer threw for 414 yards and four touchdowns against Freeman's defense. Palmer has been average yet consistent this season, and although this rank puts him outside of fantasy-starter levels, the next two games are against the Baltimore Ravens (which is now a good thing for quarterbacks) and the New Orleans Saints (which usually is). Palmer is an interception machine at times, but this is a decent time to invest in him.

There was little movement after the top 20 quarterbacks, but kudos to Miami Dolphins rookie Ryan Tannehill for battling through his quad injury and tossing for 290 yards. Man, if only Tannehill had a wide receiver like Brandon Marshall to throw to, as opposed to say, Davone Bess, that would certainly help. Tannehill is a nice investment, as well, with four of his final eight games coming against the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

[h=3]Top 60 Running Backs[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	1
2	Adrian Peterson	Min	4
3	Ray Rice	Bal	2
4	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	3
5	LeSean McCoy	Phi	5
6	Frank Gore	SF	7
7	Matt Forte	Chi	8
8	Doug Martin	TB	12
9	Alfred Morris	Wsh	10
10	Trent Richardson	Cle	15
11	Ryan Mathews	SD	11
12	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	13
13	Stevan Ridley	NE	14
14	Chris Johnson	Ten	20
15	Jamaal Charles	KC	6
16	Michael Turner	Atl	19
17	Willis McGahee	Den	16
18	C.J. Spiller	Buf	18
19	Mikel Leshoure	Det	25
20	Reggie Bush	Mia	21
21	Darren McFadden	Oak	9
22	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	22
23	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	27
24	Fred Jackson	Buf	23
25	Steven Jackson	StL	24
26	Shonn Greene	NYJ	26
27	Rashad Jennings	Jac	28
28	Darren Sproles	NO	17
29	Pierre Thomas	NO	35
30	Donald Brown	Ind	31
31	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	29
32	Jonathan Stewart	Car	32
33	Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	33
34	LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	40
35	Alex Green	GB	30
36	DeMarco Murray	Dal	34
37	Daryl Richardson	StL	36
38	Vick Ballard	Ind	37
39	Isaac Redman	Pit	NR
40	DeAngelo Williams	Car	43
41	James Starks	GB	NR
42	Kendall Hunter	SF	39
43	Andre Brown	NYG	42
44	Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	41
45	Shane Vereen	NE	44
46	Felix Jones	Dal	46
47	Michael Bush	Chi	38
48	Daniel Thomas	Mia	45
49	Ben Tate	Hou	47
50	Joique Bell	Det	55
51	Danny Woodhead	NE	48
52	Mike Goodson	Oak	NR
53	Brandon Bolden	NE	50
54	Ronnie Hillman	Den	53
55	Mark Ingram	NO	58
56	Shaun Draughn	KC	NR
57	Taiwan Jones	Oak	NR
58	Ronnie Brown	SD	60
59	Peyton Hillis	KC	59
60	Chris Ivory	NO	NR

All hail the new top fantasy scorer among non-quarterbacks! Doug Martin is now a point ahead of Arian Foster. Who's the better investment? Let's not get too crazy here, shall we? Martin was 12th among running backs in these rankings a week ago. He's a rookie, and he recently lost a terrific left guard to season-ending injury. As noted in Sunday's Four Downs blog, Martin forces himself into the top 10 -- zooming past several AFC West disappointments -- but there remain safer, more reliable veteran options, such as Foster and the amazing Adrian Peterson, who also forces himself up a few notches. Ray Rice and Marshawn Lynch certainly did nothing wrong to get passed, but Peterson, who posted 31 fantasy points in Week 9 and has a three-week average of more than 150 yards rushing per game, is simply amazing. This guy tore his ACL less than a year ago!

As for those AFC West running backs, based on past history, there's no telling how long Darren McFadden will be out with his high ankle sprain. McFadden wasn't having a fantastic season to begin with despite good health. Wasn't he week-to-week around this time last year, as well? Keep him owned, but don't expect much. Jamaal Charles had another disappointing game Sunday, making it three straight. One of those games was against the same Raiders defense Martin just obliterated. Looks different now, eh? Charles claims the neck injury that forced him from Thursday's game early won't cause him to miss the next game, but this is not a No. 1 fantasy back anymore, even with his considerable upside.

As for other RB2 options, Michael Turner, Chris Johnson and Mikel Leshoure certainly increased their stock in Week 9, although none can truly be trusted. Turner is the best bet for weekly points; he ran for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night, although 43 of the yards came on one play. Turner has five double-digit performances this season. Johnson has five, as well, although four of them came in the past four weeks. This is his third game of 141 or more rushing yards, and he did it on the vaunted Chicago Bears defense. We want to believe Johnson is safe now. I'm nearly there but am still leaving him in RB2 range. Leshoure scored three touchdowns Sunday, each from close range, as opposed to what Martin did in Oakland, but let's not forget Leshoure had totaled 22 fantasy points in his previous four contests. He scored 25 on Sunday. There just aren't 20 reliable and healthy running backs left.

McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew were joined in the 21-30 range by the Saints' Darren Sproles, who needed surprising hand surgery late last week and will miss at least a month. A month is a long time in a fantasy football season, especially when it's already November. Sproles remains in the top 30 and is ownable because he can make noise in the fantasy playoffs, but make sure you have options. Speaking of injuries, you'll see three Pittsburgh Steelers running backs in the 30s, which seems crazy. An individual Steelers running back has rushed for 100 yards in three consecutive games, but Rashard Mendenhall, who hasn't done so, is more talented than Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. Each of these Steelers running backs is worth owning, but keep an eye on who is likely to start. With the offensive line thriving, there's value here.

There wasn't much rankings movement late, although two Raiders join the party and one Packer is back. In Green Bay, Alex Green had been pretty ordinary of late, and his own Super Bowl-winning quarterback called for improvement, so James Starks is back in the picture. Neither fellow should be in demand, though. In Oakland, Mike Goodson could be the No. 1 guy this week, or he might not be ready because of injury. Taiwan Jones has one carry this season but could have many more pending. Or the Raiders might sign Ryan Grant. Where's Mark van Eeghen these days?

[h=3]Top 60 Wide Receivers[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	A.J. Green	Cin	1
2	Brandon Marshall	Chi	4
3	Victor Cruz	NYG	2
4	Calvin Johnson	Det	5
5	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	6
6	Roddy White	Atl	7
7	Julio Jones	Atl	8
8	Demaryius Thomas	Den	9
9	Percy Harvin	Min	3
10	Marques Colston	NO	10
11	Wes Welker	NE	11
12	Reggie Wayne	Ind	12
13	Mike Wallace	Pit	14
14	Vincent Jackson	TB	15
15	Andre Johnson	Hou	16
16	Miles Austin	Dal	18
17	Eric Decker	Den	22
18	Randall Cobb	GB	30
19	James Jones	GB	28
20	Dez Bryant	Dal	17
21	Steve Smith	Car	21
22	Dwayne Bowe	KC	19
23	Torrey Smith	Bal	24
24	Jordy Nelson	GB	13
25	Mike Williams	TB	32
26	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	20
27	Steve Johnson	Buf	23
28	Brandon Lloyd	NE	26
29	Denarius Moore	Oak	27
30	Lance Moore	NO	29
31	Antonio Brown	Pit	25
32	DeSean Jackson	Phi	33
33	Jeremy Maclin	Phi	31
34	Sidney Rice	Sea	38
35	Kenny Britt	Ten	34
36	Michael Crabtree	SF	35
37	Andre Roberts	Ari	40
38	Malcom Floyd	SD	37
39	Brandon LaFell	Car	36
40	Titus Young	Det	39
41	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	41
42	Brian Hartline	Mia	47
43	Josh Gordon	Cle	42
44	Chris Givens	StL	43
45	Cecil Shorts	Jac	44
46	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Oak	60
47	Greg Jennings	GB	45
48	Anquan Boldin	Bal	46
49	Golden Tate	Sea	58
50	Andrew Hawkins	Cin	48
51	Donnie Avery	Ind	52
52	Danny Amendola	StL	51
53	Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	49
54	Mario Manningham	SF	50
55	Kendall Wright	Ten	54
56	Brandon Gibson	StL	56
57	Nate Washington	Ten	57
58	Ryan Broyles	Det	55
59	T.Y. Hilton	Ind	NR
60	Clyde Gates	NYJ	59

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green has scored a touchdown in his past seven games -- he has scored in every game except the opener -- and he solidifies the top spot. It was nice to see Green rebound from his one-catch game (although it went for a score) in Week 7, and it's worth noting his schedule is friendly for the next month. Marshall rises to No. 2 after his three-touchdown explosion, although he has the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers in the next fortnight. That's not quite like Week 9 foe Tennessee. Still, you never sit Marshall. You just sit Jay Cutler there.

Elsewhere in the top 10, Victor Cruz keeps getting targets and stays in the top three, although he was quiet Sunday. Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, two other receivers fantasy owners should never sit, performed well this week, and each passes now-injured Percy Harvin, who claims he's a long shot to play in Week 10 because of an ankle injury. Just what his owners want to read. Harvin actually had twice as many rushing attempts as receptions Sunday, finishing with one measly fantasy point. Then again, the Vikings quarterback finished with 63 passing yards. Wide receivers can't overcome that.

I ultimately left the Packers' Jordy Nelson out of my Week 9 rankings, expecting that his hamstring injury would keep him out of action. Instead, Nelson played but sprained his ankle early without catching any passes. In retrospect, Nelson owners would have preferred he had been ruled out so they would have had to sit him. The Packers are on bye this week, but Randall Cobb and James Jones are each healthier than Nelson and Greg Jennings and are more valuable moving forward. Cobb scored twice Sunday among his three receptions, but look at the nine targets and several rushing attempts. Jones has truly emerged, as well. Keep Nelson and Jennings owned, however. December will be crowded for this crew, which is a factor if you're starting Cobb and Jones.

Panthers star Steve Smith finally produced his first touchdown of the season Sunday, but it wasn't a great fantasy day. Smith caught three passes for 41 yards. He's eight games into his season and has yet to reach as many as 12 fantasy points in any games. Smith doesn't move up and remains on the outside looking in for the top 20, although just barely. His Carolina colleague Brandon LaFell, by the way, missed Sunday's game because of a concussion.

Deeper in the rankings, Brian Hartline, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Golden Tate and T.Y. Hilton saw significant moves up. Hartline caught eight passes for 107 yards. In the three games after he exploded for 253 receiving yards in Week 4, Hartline produced a total of 100 yards. Hartline should remain productive the next few weeks against the Titans and Bills. Heyward-Bey isn't getting the fantasy love that more productive Denarius Moore is, but he has averaged eight fantasy points over the past three weeks. Tate scored twice Sunday, his second multi-TD game of the year. In those games, he has 34 fantasy points. In the other seven games, he has 20 points. Hilton remains third on the team's depth chart after Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery, and, as with Tate, nearly all his season production has come in just two performances.

[h=3]Top 30 Tight Ends[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Rob Gronkowski	NE	1
2	Jimmy Graham	NO	2
3	Jason Witten	Dal	3
4	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	4
5	Aaron Hernandez	NE	5
6	Owen Daniels	Hou	9
7	Heath Miller	Pit	6
8	Vernon Davis	SF	7
9	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	11
10	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	10
11	Antonio Gates	SD	12
12	Dustin Keller	NYJ	13
13	Brandon Myers	Oak	19
14	Jared Cook	Ten	14
15	Martellus Bennett	NYG	15
16	Kyle Rudolph	Min	8
17	Greg Olsen	Car	20
18	Brent Celek	Phi	16
19	Scott Chandler	Buf	21
20	Jacob Tamme	Den	18
21	Dwayne Allen	Ind	23
22	Joel Dreessen	Den	25
23	Jermichael Finley	GB	17
24	Coby Fleener	Ind	22
25	Logan Paulsen	Wsh	29
26	Rob Housler	Ari	NR
27	Dennis Pitta	Bal	24
28	Zach Miller	Sea	26
29	Anthony Fasano	Mia	27
30	Kellen Davis	Chi	28

Texans tight end Owen Daniels is well on his way to his best NFL season, as he already has tied his mark with five touchdown catches. Daniels had 12 fantasy points against the Bills on Sunday, and he has been in double digits in fantasy scoring four of his past five games. He moves up to No. 6, passing Heath Miller, whose own two-game scoring streak was snapped. The Bengals' Jermaine Gresham, who had his first 100-yard game of the season, joins Daniels and Miller in the top 10.

Leaving the top 10 is Kyle Rudolph of the Vikings. Rudolph was among the top five fantasy tight ends entering Week 7, but he has caught nary a pass in two of the three weeks since. In the other game, he caught two passes for 17 yards. One fantasy point in three weeks is not good, especially at a position with decent depth. Rudolph plummets out of the top 10, as it looks as though he has become irrelevant. Among those moving past him was underrated Raiders option Brandon Myers, who had been seeing enough targets to matter and was among the season position leaders in receiving yards but hadn't scored any touchdowns. On Sunday, he scored twice.

In other tight end news, the Packers' Jermichael Finley remains one of the most highly owned at his position. Know what he has done the past five games? Well, he has caught a total of 10 passes for 84 yards, no touchdowns, seven fantasy points. Move on, especially with the Packers on bye this week. Greg Olsen and Scott Chandler are better choices. Dwayne Allen of the Colts is, as well, and he didn't have to share with injured teammate Coby Fleener on Sunday as he gained 75 receiving yards. Joel Dreessen passes Finley, as well; he has scored four touchdowns this season.

[h=3]Top 32 Defense/Special Teams[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>	<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Chicago Bears	1	17	Baltimore Ravens	16
2	Houston Texans	3	18	San Diego Chargers	21
3	San Francisco 49ers	2	19	Cleveland Browns	17
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19
5	Seattle Seahawks	5	21	Dallas Cowboys	20
6	Green Bay Packers	6	22	Cincinnati Bengals	22
7	Arizona Cardinals	8	23	Philadelphia Eagles	23
8	Minnesota Vikings	7	24	Washington Redskins	24
9	Miami Dolphins	9	25	Carolina Panthers	25
10	New York Giants	10	26	Indianapolis Colts	26
11	Atlanta Falcons	11	27	Oakland Raiders	27
12	Denver Broncos	12	28	Jacksonville Jaguars	28
13	New York Jets	13	29	New Orleans Saints	31
14	New England Patriots	14	30	Kansas City Chiefs	29
15	Detroit Lions	18	31	Buffalo Bills	32
16	St. Louis Rams	15	32	Tennessee Titans	30

[h=3]Top 100 Overall[/h]

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<center> Ovr. Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos. Rank </center>	<center> Next 3 Weeks </center>	<center> Prev. Rank </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	RB1	@Chi, Jac, @Det	1
2	Adrian Peterson	Min	RB2	Det, bye, @Chi	4
3	Ray Rice	Bal	RB3	Oak, @Pit, @SD	2
4	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	RB4	NYJ, bye, @Mia	3
5	LeSean McCoy	Phi	RB5	Dal, @Wsh, Car	5
6	Frank Gore	SF	RB6	StL, Chi, @NO	8
7	A.J. Green	Cin	WR1	NYG, @KC, Oak	7
8	Matt Forte	Chi	RB7	Hou, @SF, Min	10
9	Brandon Marshall	Chi	WR2	Hou, @SF, Min	12
10	Doug Martin	TB	RB8	SD, @Car, Atl	27
11	Alfred Morris	Wsh	RB9	bye, Phi, @Dal	17
12	Victor Cruz	NYG	WR3	@Cin, bye, GB	9
13	Calvin Johnson	Det	WR4	@Min, GB, Hou	14
14	Trent Richardson	Cle	RB10	bye, @Dal, Pit	34
15	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR5	bye, @Atl, StL	15
16	Roddy White	Atl	WR6	@NO, Ari, @TB	21
17	Ryan Mathews	SD	RB11	@TB, @Den, Bal	23
18	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB1	bye, @Det, @NYG	16
19	Drew Brees	NO	QB2	Atl, @Oak, SF	18
20	Tom Brady	NE	QB3	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	19
21	Peyton Manning	Den	QB4	@Car, SD, @KC	26
22	Julio Jones	Atl	WR7	@NO, Ari, @TB	22
23	Demaryius Thomas	Den	WR8	@Car, SD, @KC	24
24	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	RB12	@Cin, bye, GB	28
25	Stevan Ridley	NE	RB13	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	32
26	Percy Harvin	Min	WR9	Det, bye, @Chi	11
27	Chris Johnson	Ten	RB14	@Mia, bye, @Jac	50
28	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE1	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	29
29	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB15	@Pit, Cin, Den	6
30	Matt Ryan	Atl	QB5	@NO, Ari, @TB	25
31	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	QB6	bye, Phi, @Dal	20
32	Marques Colston	NO	WR10	Atl, @Oak, SF	30
33	Wes Welker	NE	WR11	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	31
34	Andrew Luck	Ind	QB7	@Jac, @NE, Buf	45
35	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE2	Atl, @Oak, SF	36
36	Reggie Wayne	Ind	WR12	@Jac, @NE, Buf	35
37	Jason Witten	Dal	TE3	@Phi, Cle, Wsh	37
38	Michael Turner	Atl	RB16	@NO, Ari, @TB	47
39	Mike Wallace	Pit	WR13	KC, Bal, @Cle	42
40	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB8	KC, Bal, @Cle	40
41	Willis McGahee	Den	RB17	@Car, SD, @KC	38
42	Vincent Jackson	TB	WR14	SD, @Car, Atl	43
43	Andre Johnson	Hou	WR15	@Chi, Jac, @Det	51
44	C.J. Spiller	Buf	RB18	@NE, Mia, @Ind	44
45	Reggie Bush	Mia	RB20	Ten, @Buf, Sea	52
46	Darren McFadden	Oak	RB21	@Bal, NO, @Cin	13
47	Mikel Leshoure	Det	RB19	@Min, GB, Hou	62
48	Miles Austin	Dal	WR16	@Phi, Cle, Wsh	55
49	Eric Decker	Den	WR17	@Car, SD, @KC	63
50	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	TE4	@NO, Ari, @TB	46
51	Aaron Hernandez	NE	TE5	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	59
52	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB22	Ind, @Hou, Ten	53
53	Eli Manning	NYG	QB9	@Cin, bye, GB	33
54	Matthew Stafford	Det	QB10	@Min, GB, Hou	48
55	Randall Cobb	GB	WR18	bye, @Det, @NYG	85
56	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	RB23	NYG, @KC, Oak	71
57	James Jones	GB	WR19	bye, @Det, @NYG	79
58	Fred Jackson	Buf	RB24	@NE, Mia, @Ind	56
59	Josh Freeman	TB	QB11	SD, @Car, Atl	68
60	Dez Bryant	Dal	WR20	@Phi, Cle, Wsh	54
61	Steve Smith	Car	WR21	Den, TB, @Phi	61
62	Steven Jackson	StL	RB25	@SF, NYJ, @Ari	58
63	Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR22	@Pit, Cin, Den	57
64	Cam Newton	Car	QB12	Den, TB, @Phi	49
65	Torrey Smith	Bal	WR23	Oak, @Pit, @SD	69
66	Tony Romo	Dal	QB13	@Phi, Cle, Wsh	64
67	Shonn Greene	NYJ	RB26	@Sea, @StL, NE	67
68	Michael Vick	Phi	QB14	Dal, @Wsh, Car	66
69	Jordy Nelson	GB	WR24	bye, @Det, @NYG	39
70	Chicago Bears	Chi	D1	Hou, @SF, Min	NR
71	Owen Daniels	Hou	TE6	@Chi, Jac, @Det	86
72	Rashad Jennings	Jac	RB27	Ind, @Hou, Ten	72
73	Darren Sproles	NO	RB28	Atl, @Oak, SF	41
74	Mike Williams	TB	WR25	SD, @Car, Atl	89
75	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR26	@Cin, bye, GB	60
76	Philip Rivers	SD	QB15	@TB, @Den, Bal	74
77	Steve Johnson	Buf	WR27	@NE, Mia, @Ind	65
78	Pierre Thomas	NO	RB29	Atl, @Oak, SF	88
79	Heath Miller	Pit	TE7	KC, Bal, @Cle	70
80	Donald Brown	Ind	RB30	@Jac, @NE, Buf	80
81	Brandon Lloyd	NE	WR28	Buf, Ind, @NYJ	75
82	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB31	KC, Bal, @Cle	77
83	Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB32	Den, TB, @Phi	82
84	Vernon Davis	SF	TE8	StL, Chi, @NO	81
85	Denarius Moore	Oak	WR29	@Bal, NO, @Cin	76
86	Lance Moore	NO	WR30	Atl, @Oak, SF	84
87	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	TE9	NYG, @KC, Oak	100
88	Antonio Brown	Pit	WR31	KC, Bal, @Cle	73
89	Alex Green	GB	RB35	bye, @Det, @NYG	78
90	DeSean Jackson	Phi	WR32	Dal, @Wsh, Car	91
91	Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	RB33	KC, Bal, @Cle	NR
92	Jeremy Maclin	Phi	WR33	Dal, @Wsh, Car	87
93	LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	RB34	bye, @Atl, StL	NR
94	DeMarco Murray	Dal	RB36	@Phi, Cle, Wsh	92
95	Houston Texans	Hou	D2	@Chi, Jac, @Det	NR
96	Sidney Rice	Sea	WR34	NYJ, bye, @Mia	NR
97	Daryl Richardson	StL	RB37	@SF, NYJ, @Ari	93
98	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	TE10	@Min, GB, Hou	97
99	Vick Ballard	Ind	RB38	@Jac, @NE, Buf	95
100	Antonio Gates	SD	TE11	@TB, @Den, Bal	NR

HacheMan · Nov 6, 2012

[h=1]Time to trade Eli Manning?[/h][h=3]Fantasy Foresight: Reviewing Giants passing game, Mike Wallace[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

For the past few weeks, we have heard a lot about the joys and benefits of the election process, yet the truth of the matter is the onslaught of political commercials, incessant political phone calls -- my house received no fewer than 200 of these over the past two months -- and 24-hour news cycle coverage has given much of the populace a case of election fatigue.

This time of year also sees fantasy football owners struck by a malady called midseason team fatigue. This happens when players on their roster come out of the gates in a hurry but start to falter once the calendar turns a page or two.

Since there are only a few weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, it is imperative that owners find out if these players are apt to turn things around or if they need to be replaced for the fantasy football playoffs.

This week's Fantasy Foresight aims to help with that by reviewing three players from the New York Giants and a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers who are causing this type of consternation for their fantasy football owners.

Eli Manning

For the first five weeks of the season, Manning was cruising along at a quality production clip, posting at least 15 points in four of those games and 18 or more in three of them.

Since then, Manning has racked up a total of 32 points in four games and posted only eight combined points in the past two contests.

If this trend continues, Manning can't be given a spot in a starting lineup and may even need to be benched in two-quarterback leagues. But what are the odds that his poor play will continue?

Let's start by examining Manning's season as a whole, beginning with a look at his route-depth metrics:

<offer></offer>[h=4]Eli Manning's 2012 Season By Route Depth Metric[/h]

Route Depth	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Pen	Pen Yds	YPA
Short (1-10 yards)	139	187	1128	3	3	2	16	6.1
Medium (11-19 yards)	39	70	638	5	3	6	65	9.2
Deep (20-29 yards)	10	21	341	1	1	2	14	15.4
Bomb (30+ yards)	6	16	319	3	1	2	87	22.6
Other (throwaways, etc.)	0	24	0	0	1	0	0	0.0
Total	194	318	2426	12	9	12	182	7.9
Vertical (11+ yards)	55	107	1298	9	5	10	166	12.5
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards)	16	37	660	4	2	4	101	18.6

To get an idea of where these stand, consider Manning's 2011 totals in total YPA (8.5), vertical YPA (12.3) and stretch vertical YPA (15.1). His 2012 overall YPA falls a bit short of last season's mark, but his vertical and stretch vertical marks are improved, so he is still doing well on the most important types of passes.

What's more, Manning has 117 vertical targets this season if penalty plays are added to the attempt total. Since the Giants have played nine games, that would correlate to 208 vertical targets over the course of a full season. Manning's vertical pass total in 2011 was 235, which led the league, but only five passers made it to the 200-target mark in this category.

Manning has a 2.7 percent bad decision rate this season, which is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. That is higher than Manning's 1.9 percent BDR last season but is still under the 3 percent that serves as the unacceptable benchmark for passers in high-risk/high-reward offenses such as the one the Giants use.

If those numbers indicate Manning is playing nearly as well this season as he did last season, what is the explanation for the slump over the past two games? Remember that Dallas and Pittsburgh, the Giants' opponents in those games, rank in the top six in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season, so toughness of competition had something to do with it. Manning also has a history of hot and cold performances, so the occasional slump is something that comes with the territory when he is in the lineup.

Manning's owners should note that the Giants schedule does look to get a lot easier, especially at the beginning of the fantasy football playoffs, when New York faces Washington in Week 13 and New Orleans in Week 14. The odds are good that he will get back to his early season form for those matchups, so don't go trading Manning if it looks fairly certain the fantasy playoffs are in your team's future.

Victor Cruz

When reviewing the Giants passing offense, it seemed like Cruz was playing at a similar pace to last season. After all, he tallied double-digit fantasy point totals in five of his first seven games and is on pace to score 12 touchdowns.

That similarity started to disappear upon closer examination. Check out Cruz's 2012 route-depth metrics:
[h=4]Victor Cruz's 2012 Season By Route Depth Metric[/h]

Route Depth	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Pen	Pen Yds	YPA
Short (1-10 yards)	40	58	329	2	2	0	0	5.7
Medium (11-19 yards)	14	22	203	2	1	1	5	9.0
Deep (20-29 yards)	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	0.0
Bomb (30+ yards)	3	8	185	3	1	0	0	23.1
Total	57	91	717	7	5	1	5	7.8
Vertical (11+ yards)	17	33	388	5	3	1	5	11.6
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards)	3	11	185	3	2	0	0	16.8

Those numbers aren't bad, but they fall well short of Cruz's 2011 marks in total YPA (13.1), short YPA (10.5), vertical YPA (16.1) and stretch vertical YPA (21.6).

What's more, his stats have been highly skewed by an 80-yard touchdown reception in Week 2 and a 77-yard touchdown reception in Week 7, both of which occurred on stretch vertical passes. Take those aerials out of the equation and Cruz's metrics collapse to a 6.3 total YPA, 7.4 vertical YPA and 3.1 stretch vertical YPA.

To be fair, any player would see his numbers drop off if his biggest scoring receptions were removed, but it goes to show that beyond hitting the occasional big play, Cruz really isn't doing much statistically speaking. It might behoove his fantasy owners to trade him for a more consistent player if that opportunity becomes available.

Hakeem Nicks

Nicks hasn't posted fantasy point totals anywhere near Cruz's level, but his route-depth totals match up well.
[h=4]Hakeem Nicks' 2012 Season By Route Depth Metric[/h]

Route Depth	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Pen	Pen Yds	YPA
Short (1-10 yards)	18	23	160	0	1	0	0	7.0
Medium (11-19 yards)	6	13	114	1	0	1	16	9.3
Deep (20-29 yards)	3	5	116	0	0	0	0	23.2
Bomb (30+ yards)	0	3	0	0	0	1	41	10.2
Total	27	44	390	1	1	2	57	9.7
Vertical (11+ yards)	9	21	230	1	0	2	57	12.5
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards)	3	8	116	0	0	1	41	17.4

Six of Nicks' 11 vertical route completions/penalties have occurred in the past four weeks, so this isn't a matter of his numbers still seeing the spike from his dominant Week 2 performance.

What this means is Nicks is the best buy-low member of this group. His days of seeing only four targets per game (as happened against Pittsburgh) are not going to continue in perpetuity, and he has those favorable contests against Washington and New Orleans to kick off the fantasy football playoffs.

Mike Wallace

Wallace's fantasy football owners had to be happy with his 12 points against the Giants last week, but they also had to be concerned about the perception that Wallace doesn't seem to be used in the vertical passing game quite as much as in past years.

The funny thing is that, according to the splits on Wallace's ESPN player page, his vertical reception pace isn't far off from the pace he established in Bruce Arians' offense.

Here's some proof:

2010: Wallace had 29 receptions on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield and gained 827 yards on those throws, 28.5 yards per completion

2011: 24 receptions, 679 yards, 28.3 YPC

2012: 11 receptions, 264 yards, 24 YPC

Look at his 2012 pace over a 16-game season and Wallace will end up with 22 vertical receptions for 528 yards. That's a lower number than in the other two season, but it isn't the drop-off some are making it out to be. He is another buy-low candidate if your league has an owner who buys into that mindset.

HacheMan · Nov 6, 2012

[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 10[/h][h=3]Peyton Manning a model of consistency over the years[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

If we were to pick a poster boy for our weekly "Consistency Ratings" column, Peyton Manning would be an easy choice. Among players all-time, no one has proven more consistently reliable than good ol' No. 18.

It's only fitting, therefore, that among quarterbacks, no one has a higher Consistency Rating through nine weeks of the 2012 season.

Manning might no longer be flashy; it has been more than two calendar years since he has put forth a weekly fantasy point total that placed among the two best at his position. Ironically enough, the last time he did it, Sept. 26, 2010, he did so in a road game against his current Denver Broncos. But what Manning, now 36 years old, might lack in terms of week-winning upside, he still possesses in terms of start-worthy weekly statistical potential.

Avid readers of this column might be familiar with the injury penalty; Manning, in the long-range chart, gets penalized for his 2011 season-long absence by the rationale that fantasy owners who drafted him didn't accrue the expected value for those games. For his career -- counting the penalty for 2011 -- Manning has warranted a "Start" 57.8 percent of the time. He has been a "Stud," or a top two-scoring quarterback, 12.5 percent of the time, and a "Stiff," 12.9 percent of the time. Even with his year-long absence, he possesses remarkably good career Consistency Rating numbers. After all, be aware that only six quarterbacks have a Consistency Rating equal to or better than Manning's career number simply from 2010-12, which is a far, far smaller sample.

But when it comes to spinning the Manning story -- and how it pertains to the rejuvenation of his Broncos team -- forward, which is what fantasy analysis is all about, what might we glean from the stats if we didn't penalize him for his lost 2011?

To find the answer, I examined each of Manning's 13 individual seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, breaking down his impact at each of fantasy's skill positions:

Quarterback -- or Manning himself: In 13 Colts years, Manning was a fantasy "Start" 61.1 percent of the time, a "Stud" 13.9 percent and a "Stiff" 13.9 percent. That Start number illustrates his consistent nature; remember that he has widely garnered healthy draft-day rankings throughout his career, yet his critics have routinely pointed out his inability to capture the No. 1 spot in terms of total fantasy points most of those years. The purpose of drafting Manning generally wasn't assuming he'd be the highest-scoring quarterback, it was that he was the most consistently reliable one, and an annual contender for the top spot.

Here's where things get interesting, however: Manning managed an annual Consistency Rating of 62.5 percent or higher in each of his final seven years in Indianapolis, and his rating overall during those seven seasons was 67.9 percent. The Manning we saw in the latter stages in Indianapolis, which isn't far off the one currently playing in Denver, was worth having in your lineup more than twice out of every three weeks.

No. 1 running back: Earlier in Manning's Colts career, during the days of Marshall Faulk (one season, 1998) and Edgerrin James (six seasons, 1999-2000 and 2002-05), his lead running backs ranked among the most productive and consistent in fantasy football. On three occasions, the Colts' lead back was a "Start" 15 out of 16 games (Faulk in 1998, James in 2000 and 2004), and James was a "Stud" on 8 occasions in 1999 and 9 in 2000.

Once Joseph Addai took over in 2006, however, things shifted more in Manning's favor, though Addai (and Dominic Rhodes in 2008) maintained a healthy enough Consistency Ratings to warrant fantasy owners' attention. In five seasons from 2006-10, the Colts' No. 1 running back had a Consistency Rating of 56.3 percent -- 65.2 if you don't dock for missed time -- and remember that includes Addai's 2010, in which he sat out eight games. Indeed, having Manning as your quarterback meant big things for the running back as well, as in his 13 years with the Colts, his No. 1 running backs had a 71.6 percent Consistency Rating.

Don't underestimate the importance to Willis McGahee, who, despite the change at quarterback from Tim Tebow in 2011 to Manning this year, has averaged more touches per game this year (20.9) than last (17.4). As expected, Manning's arrival has opened things up for McGahee, particularly as a receiver; he already has nine more catches this season than last (21-12), and is averaging 8.1 yards per catch to 2011's 4.3. McGahee's 62.5 percent Consistency Rating thus far ranks 10th-best among running backs, and he's one of only six running backs who has been a fantasy Stud (top-five scorer at his position) 3 times or more. Manning's Colts history -- especially as it pertains to the less-talented and certainly more injury-prone Donald Brown -- supports McGahee's candidacy as a high-end fantasy RB2.

No. 1 wide receiver: Fantasy owners might remember Marvin Harrison's lengthy stay in fantasy's elite tier, and it's true that only two different men served as Manning's No. 1 wide receiver in Indianapolis, Harrison (1998-2006) and Reggie Wayne (2007-10). Only once in 13 seasons did the Colts' No. 1 wideout finish with a Consistency Rating beneath 50.0 percent, in Manning's rookie year of 1998 (Harrison, 43.8 percent), and Colts' No. 1s had a 63.9 percent Consistency Rating overall, and were Studs 57 times (a whopping 27.4 percent of their games). Wow.

No. 2 wide receiver: They were much more inconsistent over the course of those 13 seasons, their Consistency Rating just 35.1 percent, but be aware that during the Harrison-Wayne years, which spanned from 2002-06, Wayne had a 47.5 percent Consistency Rating and was a Stud 15.0 percent of the time as the team's No. 2 wide receiver. Certainly that shows there were enough balls to go around that two wideouts could thrive in fantasy, even from a consistency perspective, especially considering that the only four teams this season with two wideouts with better than a 47.5 percent number are the Atlanta Falcons (Julio Jones and Roddy White), Green Bay Packers (Randall Cobb and James Jones), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams) and Manning's own Broncos (Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas).

So here's the question: which is the smarter Broncos wideout to own, between Decker and Thomas, which is the reason for listing both wide receiver analyses together?

Being that this is the place to appreciate consistency, Decker fits that bill. He's the leader of the two in targets (70-65), receptions (46-45) and, as the more targeted and on shorter routes of the two, has spread his statistics across a greater number of useful fantasy games. Decker's 75.0 percent Consistency Rating paces his position.

Thomas, however, is the higher-upside of the two, and in spite of his mere 2 "Stud" points, might increase that number during the season's second half. His 16.8 yards-per-catch average is seventh-best among wide receivers, and his average of 7.6 yards after the catch per reception is fifth-best at his position. Owning Thomas means accepting the possibility that in a given week, he'll hand you a dreaded "Stiff" score. On upside, however, there aren't many better bets to lead in "Stud" games in the second half.

Tight end: One fact the Consistency Ratings during Manning's Colts career unearthed was that it's an untruth that he makes his tight end a consistent fantasy stud. In only five of those 13 seasons did a Colts tight end manage a Consistency Rating greater than 50 percent, no one topped Dallas Clark's 68.8 percent of 2009, and the team's top tight end combined for a 41.8 percent number during the Manning era. Manning did make his tight ends fantasy Studs, however, a fair amount; they totaled 48 of those, or 23.1 percent of the time.

Unfortunately, in Denver, the Broncos have two tight ends fighting for targets, Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme. As a result, neither has exhibited the kind of upside that Clark, and to a lesser degree Tamme, exhibited back in Indianapolis, and neither has produced a weekly fantasy point total that ranked among the two best at tight end. A stunning truth: The last time a Manning tight end failed to finish among the top two fantasy scorers for a single week for an entire season was 1998, his rookie year.

In other words, expect Dreessen's and Tamme's production to improve in time, but not to the levels that people might have believed in the preseason.

[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have met at least one of the following minimums for inclusion in the chart: 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in standard scoring leagues, 20.0 percent Consistency Rating in PPR formats. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2012 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

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Player	<center>Team</center>	<center>%</center>	<center>Pos</center>	<center>G</center>	<center>Start</center>	<center>Stud</center>	<center>Stiff</center>	<center>Sat</center>	<center>PPR%</center>
Arian Foster	Hou	100.0%	RB	8	8	2	0	0	100.0%
LeSean McCoy	Phi	100.0%	RB	8	8	1	0	0	100.0%
Bears D/ST	Chi	100.0%	D/ST	8	8	3	0	0	100.0%
Adrian Peterson	Min	88.9%	RB	9	8	3	0	0	100.0%
Marshawn Lynch	Sea	88.9%	RB	9	8	2	0	0	88.9%
Ray Rice	Bal	87.5%	RB	8	7	3	0	0	100.0%
Peyton Manning	Den	87.5%	QB	8	7	0	1	0	87.5%
Doug Martin	TB	87.5%	RB	8	7	2	0	0	75.0%
Rob Gronkowski	NE	75.0%	TE	8	6	2	1	0	75.0%
A.J. Green	Cin	75.0%	WR	8	6	2	0	0	75.0%
Texans D/ST	Hou	75.0%	D/ST	8	6	2	0	0	75.0%
C.J. Spiller	Buf	75.0%	RB	8	6	3	1	0	75.0%
Eric Decker	Den	75.0%	WR	8	6	2	1	0	75.0%
Brandon Marshall	Chi	75.0%	WR	8	6	4	1	0	75.0%
Tom Brady	NE	75.0%	QB	8	6	2	0	0	75.0%
Robert Griffin III	Wsh	66.7%	QB	9	6	3	1	0	66.7%
Alfred Morris	Wsh	66.7%	RB	9	6	1	0	0	66.7%
Aaron Rodgers	GB	66.7%	QB	9	6	2	2	0	66.7%
Trent Richardson	Cle	66.7%	RB	9	6	3	0	0	66.7%
Lawrence Tynes	NYG	66.7%	K	9	6	3	2	0	66.7%
Randall Cobb	GB	66.7%	WR	9	6	2	1	0	66.7%
Miles Austin	Dal	62.5%	WR	8	5	0	1	0	87.5%
Reggie Wayne	Ind	62.5%	WR	8	5	1	0	0	87.5%
Matt Forte	Chi	62.5%	RB	7	5	1	0	1	75.0%
Drew Brees	NO	62.5%	QB	8	5	2	0	0	62.5%
Matt Ryan	Atl	62.5%	QB	8	5	1	1	0	62.5%
Willis McGahee	Den	62.5%	RB	8	5	3	0	0	62.5%
Darren Sproles	NO	62.5%	RB	7	5	0	0	1	62.5%
Heath Miller	Pit	62.5%	TE	8	5	1	0	0	62.5%
Darren McFadden	Oak	62.5%	RB	8	5	0	1	0	62.5%
Shaun Suisham	Pit	62.5%	K	8	5	0	0	0	62.5%
Frank Gore	SF	62.5%	RB	8	5	1	0	0	62.5%
Stevan Ridley	NE	62.5%	RB	8	5	4	0	0	62.5%
Patriots D/ST	NE	62.5%	D/ST	8	5	1	1	0	62.5%
Michael Turner	Atl	62.5%	RB	8	5	1	0	0	62.5%
Vincent Jackson	TB	62.5%	WR	8	5	2	2	0	62.5%
Jimmy Graham	NO	62.5%	TE	7	5	2	1	1	62.5%
Mike Williams	TB	62.5%	WR	8	5	0	2	0	62.5%
Julio Jones	Atl	62.5%	WR	8	5	2	2	0	62.5%
Matt Bryant	Atl	62.5%	K	8	5	0	1	0	62.5%
Andrew Luck	Ind	62.5%	QB	8	5	2	2	0	62.5%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	62.5%	RB	8	5	0	1	0	37.5%
Percy Harvin	Min	55.6%	WR	9	5	1	1	0	77.8%
James Jones	GB	55.6%	WR	9	5	0	1	0	66.7%
Chris Johnson	Ten	55.6%	RB	9	5	1	2	0	66.7%
Victor Cruz	NYG	55.6%	WR	9	5	3	3	0	55.6%
Seahawks D/ST	Sea	55.6%	D/ST	9	5	1	2	0	55.6%
Phil Dawson	Cle	55.6%	K	9	5	2	3	0	55.6%
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	55.6%	WR	9	5	0	2	0	55.6%
Andre Brown	NYG	55.6%	RB	8	5	1	3	1	33.3%
Mike Wallace	Pit	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	1	0	75.0%
DeMarco Murray	Dal	50.0%	RB	5	4	0	0	3	62.5%
Tony Gonzalez	Atl	50.0%	TE	8	4	2	1	0	62.5%
Ryan Mathews	SD	50.0%	RB	6	4	1	0	2	62.5%
Calvin Johnson	Det	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	1	0	62.5%
Reggie Bush	Mia	50.0%	RB	8	4	1	0	0	62.5%
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	50.0%	RB	6	4	1	1	2	50.0%
Andy Dalton	Cin	50.0%	QB	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Justin Tucker	Bal	50.0%	K	8	4	1	0	0	50.0%
Steve Johnson	Buf	50.0%	WR	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Buccaneers D/ST	TB	50.0%	D/ST	8	4	0	3	0	50.0%
Demaryius Thomas	Den	50.0%	WR	8	4	2	1	0	50.0%
Cecil Shorts	Jac	50.0%	WR	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Greg Zuerlein	StL	50.0%	K	8	4	1	2	0	50.0%
Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	50.0%	WR	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	50.0%	K	8	4	1	0	0	50.0%
Shonn Greene	NYJ	50.0%	RB	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
49ers D/ST	SF	50.0%	D/ST	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Marques Colston	NO	50.0%	WR	8	4	2	2	0	50.0%
Robbie Gould	Chi	50.0%	K	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Adam Vinatieri	Ind	50.0%	K	8	4	0	2	0	50.0%
Malcom Floyd	SD	50.0%	WR	8	4	0	1	0	50.0%
Roddy White	Atl	50.0%	WR	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Ravens D/ST	Bal	50.0%	D/ST	8	4	1	2	0	50.0%
Jermaine Gresham	Cin	50.0%	TE	8	4	0	3	0	50.0%
Owen Daniels	Hou	50.0%	TE	8	4	1	1	0	50.0%
Matt Prater	Den	50.0%	K	8	4	1	4	0	50.0%
Michael Vick	Phi	50.0%	QB	8	4	0	1	0	50.0%
Josh Freeman	TB	50.0%	QB	8	4	1	3	0	50.0%
Brandon LaFell	Car	50.0%	WR	7	4	0	2	1	37.5%
Jamaal Charles	KC	50.0%	RB	8	4	1	2	0	37.5%
Donald Brown	Ind	50.0%	RB	6	4	0	1	2	37.5%
Vernon Davis	SF	50.0%	TE	8	4	1	4	0	37.5%
Steven Jackson	StL	50.0%	RB	8	4	0	0	0	37.5%
Joel Dreessen	Den	50.0%	TE	8	4	0	3	0	37.5%
DeAngelo Williams	Car	50.0%	RB	8	4	0	3	0	25.0%
Vikings D/ST	Min	44.4%	D/ST	9	4	1	3	0	44.4%
Cardinals D/ST	Ari	44.4%	D/ST	9	4	1	0	0	44.4%
Martellus Bennett	NYG	44.4%	TE	9	4	0	3	0	44.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	44.4%	RB	8	4	2	1	1	44.4%
Giants D/ST	NYG	44.4%	D/ST	9	4	0	2	0	44.4%
Blair Walsh	Min	44.4%	K	9	4	1	1	0	44.4%
Packers D/ST	GB	44.4%	D/ST	9	4	1	2	0	44.4%
Kyle Rudolph	Min	44.4%	TE	9	4	2	4	0	33.3%
Jason Witten	Dal	37.5%	TE	8	3	2	3	0	62.5%
Wes Welker	NE	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	1	0	62.5%
Andre Johnson	Hou	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	2	0	62.5%
Antonio Brown	Pit	37.5%	WR	8	3	0	3	0	50.0%
Pierre Thomas	NO	37.5%	RB	8	3	0	1	0	50.0%
Anquan Boldin	Bal	37.5%	WR	8	3	0	3	0	50.0%
Denarius Moore	Oak	37.5%	WR	7	3	0	0	1	50.0%
Daryl Richardson	StL	37.5%	RB	8	3	0	1	0	50.0%
Mikel Leshoure	Det	37.5%	RB	6	3	2	0	2	50.0%
Falcons D/ST	Atl	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	1	0	37.5%
Steelers D/ST	Pit	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	2	0	37.5%
Jason Hanson	Det	37.5%	K	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Lance Moore	NO	37.5%	WR	7	3	1	2	1	37.5%
Joe Flacco	Bal	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Bills D/ST	Buf	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	3	0	37.5%
Shayne Graham	Hou	37.5%	K	8	3	1	1	0	37.5%
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	0	0	37.5%
Connor Barth	TB	37.5%	K	8	3	0	3	0	37.5%
Dez Bryant	Dal	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Chargers D/ST	SD	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Dolphins D/ST	Mia	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Broncos D/ST	Den	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Daniel Thomas	Mia	37.5%	RB	6	3	0	1	2	37.5%
Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	37.5%	K	8	3	0	0	0	37.5%
Josh Scobee	Jac	37.5%	K	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Raiders D/ST	Oak	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	0	4	0	37.5%
David Akers	SF	37.5%	K	8	3	0	2	0	37.5%
Nick Folk	NYJ	37.5%	K	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Aaron Hernandez	NE	37.5%	TE	4	3	0	1	4	37.5%
Steve Smith	Car	37.5%	WR	8	3	0	0	0	37.5%
Cam Newton	Car	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Jay Cutler	Chi	37.5%	QB	8	3	0	3	0	37.5%
DeSean Jackson	Phi	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	1	0	37.5%
Brian Hartline	Mia	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Felix Jones	Dal	37.5%	RB	8	3	1	3	0	37.5%
Torrey Smith	Bal	37.5%	WR	8	3	1	0	0	37.5%
Matt Schaub	Hou	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	2	0	37.5%
Panthers D/ST	Car	37.5%	D/ST	8	3	2	2	0	37.5%
Ryan Succop	KC	37.5%	K	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Vick Ballard	Ind	37.5%	RB	8	3	0	4	0	37.5%
Alex Smith	SF	37.5%	QB	8	3	1	4	0	37.5%
Isaac Redman	Pit	37.5%	RB	6	3	1	0	2	25.0%
Jordy Nelson	GB	33.3%	WR	8	3	2	3	1	44.4%
Andre Roberts	Ari	33.3%	WR	9	3	2	1	0	44.4%
Browns D/ST	Cle	33.3%	D/ST	9	3	0	2	0	33.3%
Cedric Benson	GB	33.3%	RB	5	3	0	1	4	33.3%
Josh Gordon	Cle	33.3%	WR	9	3	1	5	0	33.3%
Santana Moss	Wsh	33.3%	WR	9	3	1	4	0	33.3%
Golden Tate	Sea	33.3%	WR	8	3	2	3	1	33.3%
Sidney Rice	Sea	33.3%	WR	9	3	0	3	0	33.3%
Russell Wilson	Sea	33.3%	QB	9	3	0	4	0	33.3%
Nate Washington	Ten	33.3%	WR	9	3	0	1	0	22.2%
Danny Woodhead	NE	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Brandon Lloyd	NE	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Brandon Myers	Oak	25.0%	TE	8	2	1	1	0	50.0%
Joique Bell	Det	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	1	0	50.0%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	2	0	37.5%
Dennis Pitta	Bal	25.0%	TE	8	2	1	3	0	37.5%
Donald Jones	Buf	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	37.5%
Titus Young	Det	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	5	0	37.5%
Dwayne Allen	Ind	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	37.5%
Cowboys D/ST	Dal	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Rams D/ST	StL	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	1	3	0	25.0%
Jets D/ST	NYJ	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	2	3	0	25.0%
Michael Bush	Chi	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Greg Olsen	Car	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Marcedes Lewis	Jac	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Nate Burleson	Det	25.0%	WR	6	2	0	2	2	25.0%
Jackie Battle	SD	25.0%	RB	8	2	1	4	0	25.0%
Philip Rivers	SD	25.0%	QB	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Alex Henery	Phi	25.0%	K	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Brandon Stokley	Den	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Jeremy Maclin	Phi	25.0%	WR	7	2	1	3	1	25.0%
Dan Bailey	Dal	25.0%	K	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Bengals D/ST	Cin	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Andrew Hawkins	Cin	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	4	0	25.0%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	25.0%	QB	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Kevin Walter	Hou	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	5	0	25.0%
Fred Jackson	Buf	25.0%	RB	6	2	0	1	2	25.0%
Tony Romo	Dal	25.0%	QB	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Matthew Stafford	Det	25.0%	QB	8	2	1	2	0	25.0%
Jonathan Stewart	Car	25.0%	RB	6	2	0	0	2	25.0%
Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Rashad Jennings	Jac	25.0%	RB	6	2	0	2	2	25.0%
Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	25.0%	RB	5	2	0	1	3	25.0%
Lions D/ST	Det	25.0%	D/ST	8	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Ryan Broyles	Det	25.0%	WR	6	2	0	3	2	25.0%
Mike Goodson	Oak	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Kendall Hunter	SF	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Brandon Gibson	StL	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Sam Bradford	StL	25.0%	QB	8	2	0	4	0	25.0%
Danny Amendola	StL	25.0%	WR	5	2	1	0	3	25.0%
Chris Givens	StL	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	3	0	25.0%
Dustin Keller	NYJ	25.0%	TE	4	2	1	2	4	25.0%
Michael Crabtree	SF	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	4	0	25.0%
Donnie Avery	Ind	25.0%	WR	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Kevin Ogletree	Dal	25.0%	WR	8	2	1	5	0	25.0%
T.Y. Hilton	Ind	25.0%	WR	7	2	1	4	1	25.0%
Shaun Draughn	KC	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	1	0	25.0%
Antonio Gates	SD	25.0%	TE	7	2	1	4	1	25.0%
Carson Palmer	Oak	25.0%	QB	8	2	1	1	0	25.0%
Mike Nugent	Cin	25.0%	K	8	2	0	0	0	25.0%
Rian Lindell	Buf	25.0%	K	8	2	0	6	0	25.0%
Dexter McCluster	KC	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	4	0	25.0%
Dan Carpenter	Mia	25.0%	K	8	2	0	2	0	25.0%
Alshon Jeffery	Chi	25.0%	WR	5	2	0	3	3	12.5%
LeGarrette Blount	TB	25.0%	RB	8	2	0	6	0	12.5%
Brent Celek	Phi	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Joe Morgan	NO	25.0%	WR	6	2	0	4	2	12.5%
Scott Chandler	Buf	25.0%	TE	8	2	1	4	0	12.5%
Anthony Fasano	Mia	25.0%	TE	8	2	0	4	0	12.5%
Christian Ponder	Min	22.2%	QB	9	2	0	4	0	22.2%
Redskins D/ST	Wsh	22.2%	D/ST	9	2	0	1	0	22.2%
Fred Davis	Wsh	22.2%	TE	7	2	0	3	2	22.2%
Eli Manning	NYG	22.2%	QB	9	2	1	2	0	22.2%
Jared Cook	Ten	22.2%	TE	9	2	0	3	0	22.2%
Rob Bironas	Ten	22.2%	K	9	2	1	4	0	22.2%
Mason Crosby	GB	22.2%	K	9	2	0	3	0	22.2%
Brandon Weeden	Cle	22.2%	QB	9	2	0	5	0	22.2%
Greg Little	Cle	22.2%	WR	9	2	0	5	0	22.2%
Tom Crabtree	GB	22.2%	TE	8	2	1	5	1	22.2%
LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	22.2%	RB	7	2	1	2	2	22.2%
Kai Forbath	Wsh	22.2%	K	4	2	0	0	5	22.2%
Ronnie Brown	SD	12.5%	RB	7	1	0	1	1	37.5%
Marcel Reece	Oak	12.5%	RB	8	1	0	3	0	37.5%
Jacob Tamme	Den	12.5%	TE	8	1	0	6	0	25.0%
Brandon Pettigrew	Det	12.5%	TE	8	1	0	2	0	25.0%
Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	11.1%	WR	9	1	0	5	0	22.2%
Kendall Wright	Ten	11.1%	WR	9	1	0	4	0	22.2%
Alex Green	GB	11.1%	RB	7	1	0	2	2	22.2%
Logan Paulsen	Wsh	11.1%	TE	9	1	0	6	0	22.2%
Rob Housler	Ari	11.1%	TE	9	1	0	5	0	22.2%
Chris Ogbonnaya	Cle	0.0%	RB	8	0	0	5	1	22.2%

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

Packers' Starks heads list of top waiver-wire pickups

For the first time in a while, there appears to be some hope for fantasy owners struggling to find a running back on the waiver wire. There aren't any must-haves, but several decent possibilities exist for those facing bye-week issues.

Solid pickups

RB James Starks, Green Bay Packers

The Packers gave Starks the opportunity to start last week, though it is too soon to tell if they have realized he is their best option on the ground or if they're just tired of Alex Green and decided to try someone else. Even if Green Bay did settle on one of the two, the starting ground gainer for the Packers isn't likely to do that much fantasy scoring. Neither back scored, and Starks saw more carries (17 for 61 yards vs. Green's 11 carries for 53 yards). Green caught a couple of passes out of the backfield, but Starks was on the field at the end of the game. The Packers are off this week, so the mystery of who will get more carries will have to wait another week. This late in the season, anything from a running back on waivers is a victory, so the 15-20 carries and 50-75 yards the Green Bay starter is likely to register is a welcome addition to any fantasy roster.
WR Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh Steelers

Sanders is the "waiting in the wings" wideout for the Steelers, and if Antonio Brown should miss any time, Sanders will get a significant bump in playing time and fantasy production. The Steelers have been mum on Brown's condition, and this will likely stay hidden right up until game time this week. In the meantime, those in need at the wideout position can add Sanders and hope he sees some significant action.

RB Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
The Lions' running back situation is similar to Green Bay's, in that the quarterback and wideouts score most of the fantasy points. Bell recorded 73 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries while also catching three passes for 36 yards. Mikel Leshoure got the lion's share of carries (16 carries for 70 yards) and Kevin Smith was in the mix as well, so Bell's numbers are not going to be predictable from week-to-week.
RB Marcel Reece, Oakland Raiders

Injuries to both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson have shuffled things in the Oakland backfield. McFadden is indicating that he will play this week, but he'll likely be a game-time decision. Goodson is in the same boat, so Reese is next up on the depth chart. Though primarily a fullback, Reece was on the field when McFadden and Goodson went to the sideline this past week. All he did was catch eight passes for 95 yards and a score. With the status of the two in front of him in limbo, Reece is worth owning in all formats.

RB Chris Ivory, New Orleans Saints

The Saints are another team getting hit by the injury bug as Darren Sproles is slated to miss a few games with a broken hand. Mark Ingram has been a disappointment, and Pierre Thomas is more of a third-down threat, so the opportunity for Ivory to see the field on a regular basis is very real. The Saints have thought highly enough of him to keep him on the roster, and having this much depth is now paying off. Ivory found the end zone on Monday night. Look for him to be in the mix for the Saints as New Orleans splits things up between Ivory, Thomas and Ingram.

On the radar

WR Kevin Ogletree, Dallas Cowboys

Despite being questionable heading into last week's game, Ogletree played and caught three passes for 96 yards and a score on Sunday night. Something clearly isn't right with starter Dez Bryant, whether it is physical or something else. The Cowboys will need someone to step up and pick up some stats if Bryant is unable to do so.

WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck is coming of age, and the Colts are turning into an impressive passing offense. Hilton grabbed six passes for 102 yards and a score on a day when the Colts passed the ball for more than 400 yards. With pass-friendly defenses like New England and Buffalo upcoming, Hilton is worth a look for those in need at the wideout position.

TE Joel Dreessen, Denver Broncos

In an effort to find a tight end worth picking up, this week we go back to Denver. Dreesen was productive against the New England Patriots (four catches for 21 yards and a score) and San Diego Chargers (six catches for 57 yards), but registered a goose egg against the New Orleans Saints. A bounce-back week against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he once again found the end zone while catching four passes for 38 yards, lands Dreessen back on this week's list, as he is only owned in 33% of online leagues. There's not a lot of upside, but Dreessen is a red-zone target for Peyton Manning, so a score to go along with a handful of catches will likely be his regular numbers.
WAIVER WIRE WONDERS: More analysis and deep/dynasty league pickups

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

Ranks: Can you trust your Bears, Texans?

Eric Karabell

The Atlanta Falcons are cruising right along at 8-0, but fantasy owners generally aren't concerned when their fantasy options face that defense. The same cannot be said of the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans, both 7-1 juggernauts who are scheduled to meet in Week 10. The Bears' fantasy defense is incredible, having outscored all but six quarterbacks and two running backs for fantasy purposes this season. The Texans boast the No. 2 fantasy defense, and other than Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers shredding it for 42 points in Week 6, Houston has permitted fewer than 14 points per game.

<offer>When it came to the Week 10 rankings, I considered whether these terrific defenses would essentially render the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers irrelevant for fantasy purposes. You know, like we'd get a 6-3 game or something. Of course, things generally don't work out that way. Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub are actually playing well, but I wouldn't go near them in fantasy this week, having ranked 19 quarterbacks better. The running backs and wide receivers are more critical in fantasy, and while I downgraded the other players a little, owners shouldn't avoid using them.</offer>

Arian Foster, for instance, is usually my top option at his position. This week he's third, behind Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson. They're very good as well, and have better matchups. Matt Forte, meanwhile, remained in my top 10.
Although these are two of the top four defenses in terms of limiting fantasy points to running backs, enigmatic Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans did rush for 141 yards and a touchdown on the Bears in Week 9. Johnson did the exact same thing, but without the touchdown, to Houston in Week 4. I trust Foster more than Forte -- and both more than Johnson -- but unless Cutler plays the role of Rodgers and tosses six touchdown passes again, which is highly unlikely, these teams will aim to establish the run.

The downgrades are more palpable with the passing games. Brandon Marshall comes off a three-touchdown performance, albeit against a miserable defense, and I ranked him eighth. Would I really sit him if I owned Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker? Well, yeah, that's what the rankings are about. The fact that Marshall remains top 10 is a credit to his ability. ESPN Fantasy projects Cutler for 160 passing yards and two scores, and Marshall should enjoy a good portion of that. With Houston's Andre Johnson, seemingly rejuvenated and safe again after catching 25 passes and averaging 93 receiving yards the past three games, I'd consider him for the top 10 most weeks after this one. The schedule is friendly -- just not this week. He's ranked 17th among receivers.

Quarterback: In news that doesn't involve the Bears/Texans, my top 10 quarterbacks mirror the staff averages, though I had Matt Ryan a bit lower than others and Andrew Luck a bit higher. The notable differences in the rankings a bit lower concern Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. Dalton played well in September, with three games of more than 20 fantasy points. Since then, he has been erratic. He faces the New York Giants this week, but I'm more skeptical than others. I ranked Dalton 18th. I was the lone ranker who liked Tannehill better. He faces the Titans. They barely defended against the Bears last week.
Tannehill has four games with 15 fantasy points this season, same as Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford. I'm buying. And with the Titans, perhaps Jake Locker plays this week, or it might be Matt Hasselbeck. If it's Locker, I'll rank him 22nd. Neither Titans quarterback should be relied upon, though.

Running back: Chris Johnson in my top 10 at Miami? I must have lost my mind! That explains it. Look, hasn't he proven to be matchup-proof? He has 141-yard games against top defenses, as I noted before, and has struggled in easier matchups. I'm just watching the trend: He's averaged 130 rushing yards his past four games. I ranked him one spot better than Michael Turner, who faces the Saints. LeSean McCoy could have rushed for 200 yards Monday night in New Orleans. This week Turner reaches 20 fantasy points, and he's my No. 10 choice.
Deeper down, I'm a bit higher on Mikel Leshoure -- the Vikings can be run on -- than others, as I view the Joique Bell Week 9 rushing total as garbage-time production. I think Isaac Redman will be the guy for Pittsburgh and Vick Ballard will be Indy's choice, and if Darren Sproles suits up, he'd be back in my top 20.

Wide receiver: Ryan is a better quarterback than Michael Vick, and he'll have ample time to throw the football, which is why we ranked Roddy White and Julio Jones in the top three against the Saints. Yes, if you own them both, you should be starting both. That's every week, especially Week 10. Matchup was a factor in why Brandon Lloyd made my top 20. I'm generally colder on him than others, but against the Bills, fun should be had. I liked Torrey Smith and Steve Smith more than my colleagues, though as with Cutler/Marshall, that wasn't evident in the quarterback ranks. I don't think Antonio Brown of the Steelers will play, but Emmanuel Sanders should be a top-30 fill-in, at the very least. Finally, don't forget to sign Danny Amendola. He's back from his shoulder injury. He doesn't have a good matchup (in San Francisco), but add him now for Week 11.

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

[h=1]Randall Cobb's expanded role[/h][h=3]Snap counts reveal fantasy implications for Cobb, Oakland RBs, Indy TEs[/h]By Sam Monson | Pro Football Focus

With another week of NFL action complete, it's time to take a look inside the world of playing time and snap counts via the in-depth data at Pro Football Focus.

The NFL now makes basic snap data available to anyone willing to open a game book, but only Pro Football Focus can take you far deeper into those numbers and tell you what players were doing on any given snap, where they were lining up and what it means.

Let's take a look at some of the more interesting fantasy football stories from a snap count perspective.

Utilizing Randall Cobb

Every team wants to have its own Percy Harvin, and the Green Bay Packers might have a similar player in Cobb. They have been creatively using him, just as the Vikings do with Harvin, having him return kicks and line up in the backfield in addition to his role as a receiver. But the difference is how often each player is on the field. Harvin was taken off the field far too much last season, and this season Minnesota has made a point of rectifying that. Whether forced through injuries or by design, the Packers are now doing the same with Cobb.
<offer></offer>

Cobb always featured heavily in Green Bay's passing attack this season; he has six games of 30 or more passing snaps this year despite only three games (his most recent three) of 45 or more total snaps. Now, however, he is becoming more of an every-down player in terms of use. His snaps in the passing game have increased only marginally, but he is now on the field when the Packers run the ball. Against Arizona in Week 9, he was on the field for 27 running snaps, eight more than his highest total before that game and 17 more than his season average. The past three games have been his highest ratio in that regard and the Packers have targeted him heavily in that period, giving him four carries and throwing his way 24 times. He now appears to be a permanent feature of the Packers' offense, which could signal the end of the line for Greg Jennings in Green Bay.

Oakland's running back injuries

In the course of 60 minutes of football against Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Oakland Raiders lost both of their top two running backs to high ankle sprains. Darren McFadden went down after looking sprightly early and Mike Goodson followed at the start of the fourth quarter. Neither has officially been ruled out going forward, but high ankle sprains can be nagging injuries, so it makes sense to examine what the Raiders did after the pair left the game.

Rather than go to No. 3 running back Taiwan Jones, the Raiders elected to line fullback Marcel Reece up alone in the backfield. In the fourth quarter, the Raiders gave Jones just five snaps, during four of which he released into a pattern, while Reece saw 24 snaps as the primary back. Of those 24, Reece was split wide four times as the Raiders elected to go with an empty backfield, and he stayed in to pass protect once. Reece actually didn't carry the ball, but the Raiders were behind and had to throw the ball at that point. The Raiders will likely give McFadden every chance to play despite his injury; however, if he can't go, it looks as if they will split the snaps between Jones and Reece depending on run or pass, rather than trust Reece to carry the load as a true running back.

Indianapolis' tight ends

Everybody expected that the Stanford pairing of QB Andrew Luck and TE Coby Fleener would pay instant dividends for the Colts, but Fleener's adjustment has been rockier than Luck's, and now he has been sidelined with a shoulder injury, opening the door for other players. The Colts have been using rookie Dwayne Allen as their primary tight end this season and, since Fleener injured his shoulder against the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, they have been working in Weslye Saunders as a second tight end.

Allen has been playing the bulk of Indianapolis' snaps all season, earning more snaps in the pass game (240) than the run game (200); but over the past few weeks, he has seen his overall percentage soar. His average this season is 71 percent of the team's snaps, but he has been on the field for more than 80 percent of the snaps in each of the past three weeks -- and kept in to pass protect more often. Saunders has been used as the blocking tight end for the Colts over the past three weeks, running just 10 routes from his 55 total snaps. The Colts seem to be using tight ends to block more over the past few weeks, with their stable combining for 35 snaps of additional protection over the past three games.

Other PFF snap-count snippets

• LeSean McCoy has now played 30 more snaps than any other running back, but has just 146 carries, fewer than eight other backs and the same amount as Stevan Ridley, who has 200 fewer snaps.
• Larry Fitzgerald has played more snaps than any other wideout, and has been on the field for 97.8 percent of Arizona's offensive snaps.

• Kyle Rudolph is one of the league's most heavily used tight ends in terms of snaps, but 13 tight ends have more than the 45 targets he has seen this year.

HacheMan · Nov 7, 2012

[h=1]Week 10 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Ryan Tannehill, Isaac Redman and Torrey Smith look like good starts[/h]By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders

Is anyone else like me right now, sitting at 3-6 in their fantasy league despite being among the top three in total points? Well, if you are, it's time to hunker down, make some moves and play the matchups correctly in the remaining weeks. There is still time to make a late-season push toward the fantasy playoffs.
So, let's not waste time and head straight to Football Outsiders' fantasy advice for Week 10. Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups this week:

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Ryan Tannehill (plus-3 points)

Lost in all the fawning over fellow rookie Andrew Luck's performance, Tannehill quietly put together another solid fantasy performance (18.4 points in our system). Generally speaking, Tannehill has been the poster child for this weekly column, as his better games have come against mediocre-to-bad defenses, while his worse games have come against the Houston Texans and New York Jets.

The Tennessee Titans, Tannehill's Week 10 foe, are squarely in the former group, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Matt Schaub (minus-5 points)

The Chicago Bears give up 1.4 fewer fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than the next best pass defense. According to pass defense DVOA, Chicago also ranks first, with a rating that's more than twice as efficient as the No. 2 team. Now add in the fact Schaub averages only about 30 passes per game, and we can conclude that pressing your luck by starting him this week is where desperation meets a lack of opportunity.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Rashad Jennings (plus-2 points)
 [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts.
QB	MIN	Christian Ponder	+4
QB	MIA	Ryan Tannehill	+3
QB	JAC	Blaine Gabbert	+3
RB	MIA	Reggie Bush	+3
QB	NYG	Eli Manning	+3
RB	NYG	Ahmad Bradshaw	+2
RB	ATL	Michael Turner	+2
QB	BAL	Joe Flacco	+2
WR	MIA	Brian Hartline	+2
RB	JAC	Rashad Jennings	+2
RB	PIT	Isaac Redman	+1
WR	JAC	Cecil Shorts	+1
WR	PIT	Mike Wallace	+1
WR	BAL	Torrey Smith	+1
TE	MIN	Kyle Rudolph	+1
WR	MIA	Davone Bess	+1
TE	MIA	Anthony Fasano	+1
WR	BAL	Anquan Boldin	+1
TE	JAC	Marcedes Lewis	+1
WR	MIN	Michael Jenkins	+1
WR	JAC	Justin Blackmon	+1
TE	BAL	Dennis Pitta	+1

Thus far in his stint as Maurice Jones-Drew's replacement, Jennings has been a mild disappointment. This week, he shouldn't be. The Indianapolis Colts rank dead last in run defense DVOA, and give up the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. In Week 8, Reggie Bush made the entire unit look silly on one highlight reel touchdown carry. But more importantly, way back in Week 3, Jacksonville squared off against these very same Colts and Jones-Drew scored 25.3 fantasy points. Jennings is no Jones-Drew, but he should easily be able to surpass his current 10.3-point scoring average since becoming the starter.

Isaac Redman (plus-1 point)

The Pittsburgh Steelers' backfield situation is probably as much of a week-to-week source of indigestion for fantasy football owners as their 20-wing Sunday feasts. One of them has a big game, you just never can tell which one it's going to be on account of the proverbial game-time decision. In Week 7 and Week 8, the stalwart was Jonathan Dwyer. In Week 9, it was Redman, who ran all over the New York Giants on the road.

Dwyer is returning from injury this week, but head coach Mike Tomlin seems inclined to start Redman nevertheless. Redman was the "hot hand" last week, and will likely continue to be in Week 10 thanks to a home matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 26th in both run defense DVOA and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.

Shonn Greene (minus-3 points)

Remember when I recommended dumping Greene after Week 7 because of his remaining schedule? Well, in his first game after that, he scored below his average -- although admittedly not by as much as we projected. This week is his second bite at the bad matchup apple, as he faces the Seattle Seahawks, who have the No. 6 run defense, on the road. Seattle has surrendered two huge performances in its past three games, but it was by two of the best backs in the NFL: Frank Gore (18.2 points) and Adrian Peterson (31.3). To boot, even including those subpar outings, the Seahawks' defense still ranks eighth in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs.

Chris Ivory (minus-2 points) and Pierre Thomas (minus-1 point)

With Darren Sproles likely to miss his second game due to a broken hand, Ivory is our Fall Back to Earth Player of the Week -- and he fits the bill perfectly. Player who has done nothing all year, and then came out of nowhere to have a productive fantasy game? Check. That productive fantasy game being mostly thanks to touchdown-related points? Check. The defensive opponent switching from a rudderless unit faced at home to a stout unit faced on the road? Check.
 [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts.
QB	HOU	Matt Schaub	-5
QB	STL	Sam Bradford	-4
QB	NYJ	Mark Sanchez	-4
QB	CAR	Cam Newton	-3
RB	NYJ	Shonn Greene	-3
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	-3
RB	STL	Steven Jackson	-2
RB	NO	Chris Ivory	-2
RB	STL	Daryl Richardson	-1
RB	NO	Pierre Thomas	-1
RB	CAR	Jonathan Stewart	-1
WR	STL	Danny Amendola	-1
WR	HOU	Andre Johnson	-1
WR	NYJ	Jeremy Kerley	-1
WR	NYJ	Stephen Hill	-1
WR	STL	Brandon Gibson	-1
TE	NYJ	Dustin Keller	-1
WR	STL	Chris Givens	-1
WR	NO	Lance Moore	-1
WR	HOU	Kevin Walter	-1

In addition, not to be overlooked is the fact Matt Ryan (No. 4 scorer among quarterbacks) and Drew Brees (No. 1) on the same field could easily produce a fireworks show typical not seen outside of July 4th.

[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Torrey Smith (plus-1 point) and Anquan Boldin (plus-1 point)

Although Boldin will probably surpass his pedestrian 7.2-point average this week, the likely recipient of Oakland's largesse is Torrey Smith. Overall, the Raiders rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. However, their Achilles' heel so far this season has been wideouts just like Smith -- No. 1 options that stretch the field deep. To wit, Oakland is 29th in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and previous players who have torched them are deep threats like Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas and Mike Wallace.

Andre Johnson (minus-1 point) and Kevin Walter (minus-1 point)

Remember when I recommended acquiring Johnson after Week 7 because of his remaining schedule? Well, in his first game since then, he had his best fantasy performance since Week 1: eight catches for 118 yards. At the time, I mentioned that his only bad matchup left before fantasy playoff time was in Week 10 against Chicago. In addition to what I said about this matchup in my comments on Schaub, the Bears also rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and fourth in pass defense DVOA against No. 1s.

Chicago also ranks second in pass defense DVOA against opposing No. 2 wide receivers, so Walter is a bad play here, as well.

Danny Amendola (minus-1 point) and Chris Givens (minus-1 point)

It's too bad Amedola's first game back happens to be in San Francisco. The 49ers are sixth in pass defense DVOA and allow the second fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Because his injuries the past two seasons came so early in the schedule, he has yet to face this defense since it became the elite unit we now recognize. If there's any silver lining, which patient fantasy owners and the team in St. Louis that rebuilt him richly deserve, it's that Carlos Rogers has been beaten repeatedly in slot coverage this season.

[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Kyle Rudolph (plus-1 point)

Most weeks, tight end matchups worth featuring are few and far between. That's not the case in Week 10, however. I bring up Rudolph for two reasons. First, like Chris Johnson and Michael Vick before him, Rudolph is our Fish-Or-Cut-Bait Player of the Week. If he can't post a productive fantasy game at home against Detroit's 27th-ranked pass defense, he's officially a lost cause for fantasy owners. Second, his roller-coaster ride of a season offers us a teaching moment about the predictive worth of certain stats. Yards are far more predictive than touchdowns, and, as I've alluded to repeatedly this year, players oftentimes have otherwise underwhelming fantasy games masked by a touchdown or two (or three in the case of Dante Rosario). Looking at Rudolph's game logs, five touchdowns in the first six weeks amid middling yardage totals should have been a canary in the coal mine.

Anthony Fasano (plus-1 point)

Fasano faces a Titans pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and 31st in fantasy points allowed. They've improved somewhat in recent weeks, but two things here. First, it doesn't count when you hold Evan Rodriguez without a catch. Second, as I said a few weeks ago, this is the defense that allowed the aforementioned Rosario to score three touchdowns. Fasano is better than both of those guys, and his role as Tannehill's safety blanket should be a boon to fantasy owners.

Dustin Keller (minus-1 point)

In addition to ranking sixth in run defense DVOA, Seattle also ranks third in pass defense DVOA. Against tight ends this season, the Seahawks have yet to allow double-digit fantasy points in a game, kept Rudolph scoreless in Week 8 and have allowed only two receiving touchdowns.

Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players that I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:

[h=4]Week 10 Projections For Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Player	Proj	Pos	Team	Player	Proj
QB	NE	Tom Brady	4	WR	NYG	Victor Cruz	1
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	4	WR	ATL	Roddy White	1
QB	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	2	WR	ATL	Julio Jones	1
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	0	WR	TB	Vincent Jackson	1
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	-3	WR	CIN	A.J. Green	1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	-3	WR	NE	Wes Welker	1
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	4	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	0
RB	NE	Stevan Ridley	2	WR	IND	Reggie Wayne	0
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	2	WR	DAL	Miles Austin	-1
RB	TB	Doug Martin	1	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	-1
RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	0	WR	NO	Marques Colston	-1
RB	DET	Mikel Leshoure	0	WR	DEN	Eric Decker	-1
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	0	TE	PIT	Heath Miller	1
RB	SF	Frank Gore	0	TE	NE	Rob Gronkowski	1
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	0	TE	ATL	Tony Gonzalez	1
RB	DEN	Willis McGahee	-2	TE	SF	Vernon Davis	0
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	-2	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	-1
RB	HOU	Arian Foster	-5	TE	HOU	Owen Daniels	-1

HacheMan · Nov 8, 2012

Matchups bode well for power runners Ridley, Turner

When choosing fantasy starters, the matchups often make decisions easier. So which players will help or hurt fantasy owners this week?Studs
RB Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots: Ridley butchered the Buffalo Bills for 106 yards and two scores in Week 4 and has topped 100 yards four times this season. Buffalo hasn't gotten any better against running backs either, with 148.3 offensive yards, 5.1 run average, 1.67 scores per contest allowed over the last month.
WR Victor Cruz, New York Giants: A quiet stretch and physical cornerback play has haunted Cruz and his quarterback, but it's hard to go away from someone who hasn't seen fewer than eight targets in any game this year. The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 14.33 catches, 194.3 yards and one touchdown per game to wideouts in the last month.
RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: This vertical offense turns to Turner less often, but hints of post-bye ground swells have come to fruition. He's seen 44 totes in the two games since Atlanta's off-week, and the vet should be able to duplicate his 102-yard, one-score Week 9. Running backs have marched all over the New Orleans Saints in the last month (21.0 standard points per game).
WR Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers: Wallace has expressed displeasure over his erratic deployment and the lack of deep passes called in Todd Haley's offense. With Antonio Brown (ankle) in doubt for Sunday, Wallace will receive a heavy target day. The Kansas City Chiefs will budge even without his chief decoy: They've allowed the highest yards-per-catch figure to wideouts over the last month (20.8) along with 8.33 catches and 2.0 touchdowns per outing.
RB Shonn Greene, New York Jets: The Seattle Seahawks have a daunting reputation for stopping the run, but the Jets can power their way forward as well. Seattle's recent allowance was heavily influenced by Adrian Peterson and the San Francisco 49ers' rushing attack. Still, Greene can turn on his bruising game in the right circumstance. Don't be surprised if he turns his elite workload into unexpectedly positive stats.
Duds
RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The laws of probability say he won't have another game like he did in Week 9 (251 rushing yards, 4 TDs) ever again. Plus, the San Diego Chargers have been effective against the run, especially in the last month (117.7 offensive yards, 0.67 scores per game). Outright benching Martin won't work in many instances, but prepare yourself for a less-than-stellar effort.
WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers: An impending matchup with the Denver Broncos' Champ Bailey puts him here. Among Denver's last three opponents, A.J. Green was the only wideout to make noise; the Broncos have let other positions beat them. Smith can still break a few here and there, but he is long past his prime and susceptible to physical, smart defensive backs.
WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs: Sure, he'll see ample looks, but he won't repeat last week's eight-catch, 79-yard performance, which ranks as elite for a Chiefs skills player these days. The Pittsburgh Steelers will keep Matt Cassel on the run in what should be another woeful overall day.
WR Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas' man-press coverage didn't really work against the Atlanta Falcons, but it has suppressed many other talented wideouts this year. With Michael Vick's problems staying upright and letting plays develop, Maclin should continue posting underwhelming returns.
RB Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: If he's on your point-per-reception team, he'll come closer to meeting expectations. Philly's Wide 9 philosophy has been vulnerable lately, but Jones isn't enough of a true power back to take advantage of this situation, even if DeMarco Murray (foot) sits out again. Expect a busy Dallas day through the air, especially considering Tony Romo and Jason Garrett's implied disagreements about play calling.
Sleepers
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills: New England will hit the ground running, but Buffalo should launch air raids. Fitzpatrick hasn't thrown for fewer than 307 yards and two scores in his last three New England showdowns. In Week 4, he connected on four six-pointers. Even if Stevie Johnson (thigh) is hobbled or inactive, the Bills have enough weapons to pad Fitzpatrick's stat line, especially if coach Chan Gailey succumbs to cries for more C.J. Spiller.
RB Marcel Reece, Oakland Raiders: The Mike Tolbert clone lucked into a good week to start replacing Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, both inflicted with high ankle sprains. Vintage Baltimore Ravens defense, this is not: They're missing Ray Lewis (triceps) and Lardarius Webb (knee) and have allowed 193.0 offensive yards, 3.33 catches and an offensive paydirt trip per game to running backs over last month.
WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans: Britt's stats haven't justified playing him, but he's seen no fewer than five looks in each of his last six contests. Tennessee doesn't mind throwing, and Britt's increasing health should keep him in the fray against a Miami Dolphins secondary that has yielded 17.0 catches, 233.7 receiving yards and one score per game to this position since Week 5.
RB Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins: He's seen more snaps of late than Reggie Bush. Both running backs have been injured, and Miami has worked to conserve them. Thomas leans on touchdowns, but the Titans present an opportunity for more. Enemies at this position have torched Tennessee for 119.3 yards, 6.5 receptions, 75.8 receiving yards and 1.25 offensive scores per game in the last four weeks. Thomas' increased reps in passing formations might allow him to contribute there, too.
RB Ronnie Brown, San Diego Chargers: Ryan Mathews probably won't lose many touches unless his Week 9 ankle ding or fumble problems crop up. Still, Brown has seen double-digit utilizations in each of the last two weeks, with 12 receptions on 13 targets. Brown's efficient receiving out of the backfield should help counteract a shaky wideout corps. Plus, it'll play well against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that stuffs up-the-middle attempts but has allowed 9.75 catches per game to running backs over their last four games.

HacheMan · Nov 8, 2012

Luck, Charles headed in opposite directions

November 8. 2012 - Here are the biggest risers and fallers in the latest FFToolbox.com rankings entering NFL Week 10:Sizzlers
QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Luck should benefit from a trio of tasty matchups in the next three weeks against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Martin had 251 yards and four touchdowns on 25 carries last weekend and has cemented his status in the upper echelon of fantasy running backs.
RB Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions: Leshoure had one touchdown all season before shredding the Jaguars for 70 yards and three scores on 16 carries. As long as Leshoure stays healthy, he should remain productive.
WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers: The Packers' slot machine has caught six touchdowns over the last five weeks. Cobb is a must-start option with Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson sidelined.
TE Brandon Myers, Oakland Raiders: Myers never had scored a touchdown in his four-year career before reeling in a pair of goal-line scores for the Raiders last weekend.
Fizzlers
RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Charles has received 17 carries over the last two games. His lack of production is more a result of the Chiefs' struggles than an indictment of him.
RB Fred Jackson, Bills: Its clear C.J. Spiller is the better option for the Bills going forward, which means fantasy owners should look to trade Jackson, who managed 21 yards on six carries against the Houston Texans last weekend.
RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars: Back-to-back pedestrian efforts on the ground have quieted the fantasy buzz surrounding Jennings, who, along with his fantasy owners, has to face the reality that the Jaguars offense isn't very good.
WR Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers: Brown, who has scored once this season, has seen his production drop off in recent weeks and has to deal with a mild high ankle sprain. He is either an incredible buy-low option or an extremely risky trade target, depending on who you ask.
WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants: The Giants insist Nicks is healthy, but he has not produced at the elite level his fantasy owners were expecting when they invested in him on draft day. After one catch for 10 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night, it might be time to shop Nicks.

HacheMan · Nov 8, 2012

So, about last week …

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So let's open up the ol' email bag and see what we got (I've changed names and edited for length).

Rick (San Diego): Really? Left guard issues are going to kill Doug Martin's value the rest of the way? ARE YOU FRICKIN' KIDDING ME MAN? Could you possibly be more wrong at any point in your career? I was sitting on a trade proposal for Doug Martin all week until your convincing plea that denigrated this running back's value. I had faith that you were getting paid for having some knowledge of the game. … DO NOT try to give fantasy football advice on your own anymore. It could have disastrous effects in reality and thousands could get hurt. The next time you think of giving fantasy advice, do the following: take a deep breath, count to ten, throw cold water on your face and then do a few jumping jacks. Hopefully this will wake you up to the reality that you should never ever give fantasy football advice.

TMR: Yeah … that's what I thought I'd find. Well, you know what, "Rick"? I'm not taking it this week. I'm ready for the lot of ya. First, if you listen to me, I'm probably the reason you drafted Martin in the first place. Talked him up all preseason, said the overall ranks were way too low on him. So you know what? You're welcome. And you know why I was talking him up all preseason, "Rick"? Let me remind you of this stat I used all preseason: In 2011, the Saints (who featured Carl Nicks at left guard) averaged 6.6 yards per carry going to the left, the second-best average in the NFL. And conversely, that same year, the Buccaneers averaged 3.0 yards per carry when going to the left, the worst figure in the league by a yard.

So then the Buccaneers sign Nicks to a $47 million deal and suddenly, instead of 3.0 yards per carry to the left, Martin comes in averaging 4.4 yards per carry going to the left. As expected. Remember, Tampa also lost Pro Bowl right guard Davin Joseph for the year in the preseason, and it just so happens that Martin was averaging just 3.2 yards per carry to the right.

So yeah, when the Bucs lose one of the best players in the NFL at his position, and it's the second elite lineman they've now lost for the year, it's reasonable to assume that the end result is not an improvement in the rookie running back's stock, and yeah, you got me, I didn't predict he'd have the third-best fantasy day since the year 2000.

But I certainly didn't tell you to bench him. I always say: use my rankings as a guide. I ranked him 12th last week. If I'd ranked him No. 1, you and everyone else would have called me crazy, and you'd have been right. Prior to the Bucs game, Oakland had had three straight weeks of holding opposing running backs to 50 total yards rushing or less. I repeat. All of the running backs in a game combined, less than 50 total yards rushing for all of them, three straight weeks. Since the Raiders' bye, they'd be great against the run (11th in the NFL) … until Sunday. And as for trading him: I never said trade him. I said I still believed in his talent but that I thought the loss of Nicks would hurt. I said I thought he went from a low-end No. 1 running back to a low-end No. 2 running back. That's what I said, "Rick."

So yes, given the data I had to work with, I stand by the call of lowering his rest-of-season rank. After one week, it looks like a terrible call, but it had a good basis for reasoning and that's all I can do: make a call based on data in front of me. And if you're not going to own up to the fact that you obviously saw something in my thinking too, then you know what, "Rick"? I'm glad you traded him. I hope your season goes down in flames. I hope you don't win another game. How you like that? I just sung an incantation to the fantasy gods and cursed you. Oh yeah, that's right. I have that kind of power.

Anyone else? 'Cause I see how this is gonna go. Oh yeah, one of those weeks. One call goes the wrong way and you know how the Internet works. All you vultures are just waiting to unleash the hate. Well, you know what? I don't care. I'm fired up. Bring it on! I'm ready.

Justin (Philadelphia): Just wanted to say thanks for the great advice on dumping Doug Martin.

Totally kidding. Love the article every week, you give great insight into the hilarious and awesome ride that is fantasy football. I was thinking the same thing about Martin as soon as I saw Nicks was out. I'm glad I didn't have any other options though … Keep up the good work Berry, you're the man.

TMR: Oh yeah?!? Well, I … uh … well … um … huh.
Tom (Merry Olde England): Matthew, I have been reading your Love/Hate for about 3 years and believe your articles and opinions/rankings to be mostly great. Using your knowledge to help me has worked out great so far in my short fantasy football career (multiple championships). However, last week upon reading that you had given up on Doug Martin and the reasons behind it, I decided to give up on him. … I was mad at you for about 5 seconds upon seeing Martin drop 51 points in my league and then I realized, in the end, it was all my decision and no matter how great of a FF writer you are, you cannot tell the future. Anyways, I will still continue to listen to your advice in the future. Thanks for everything and I look forward to reading your next Love/Hate on Thursday.

TMR: Yeah, exactly! It's totally your own … wait. That's an unbelievably gracious note and I'd have been mad at me for much longer than five seconds. Hmmm. Not going how I expected.

Matthew Whittington (Tacoma, Wash.): So Berry, I'm sure you are getting killed over Doug Martin (and rightfully so) …
TMR: There it is. OK, buddy, what have you got to say, smart guy?

Continued … But in fairness I will say I haven't seen anyone give you credit for Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Jermaine Gresham, or the Chargers D. For the loves. And you were right on virtually all your other positional "hates." (Especially Rudolph). Guess on that Martin call, you just overthought it a bit huh? I've only recently started paying attention to the comments sections of the articles posted, and you are getting lambasted on there today by all the Monday morning quarterbacks. I just wanted to send you acknowledgement and affirmation on how much you got right. Good luck next week sir!

TMR: What the … ?

Jim Shields (Elsmere, Ky.): Matthew, thank you for your advice on drafting Doug Martin a round or two early. I did so and just received huge points two straight weeks. Love the advice and podcast … Take care and happy fantasy season.

TMR: Errr … Well, I … um … I mean … well … uh … you're welcome?

Gary Smith (wherever the Air Force sends me): This isn't an I told you so, but a thank you. You have been saying just go with your gut, etc., for the past few weeks, which I usually do anyway. This week you said you didn't like Doug Martin and my gut said to play him anyway. Just go with your gut -- so I did. Thanks for the fun articles, I've read you every week for a few years now. All my friends come to me for fantasy football advice because I tend to do pretty well in my leagues, I always tell 'em to go read what you say because, while I don't always agree with you, you have sound logic and are a fun read. I know you get tons of letters and mail from all over with stories about peoples teams, I just wanted to send a note and say that I appreciate the time and passion you put into fantasy football. Fantasy football is how I stay in touch with all of my closest buddies from college, we are all in the Air Force and most of us are pilots and thus literally scattered all over the globe. We love what we do, and fantasy football provides another way for us to stay in touch. Your passion and effort shows in your work and in your writing and from one guy who loves his job to another, I appreciate it. Keep up the great work Mr. Berry! Very Respectfully, Gary Smith.

TMR: Respectfully? Respectfully!?!? Dude, you risk your life serving and protecting our country. I write articles about a game about a game. How dare you! RESPECTFULLY??! I'm not out of order; you're out of order!! I refuse to take your respect, and in fact, I respect you! Yeah, that's right. I respect you and reject your respect of me. So there. How ya like them apples, Gary?

All right. Not great, but it's a start. Who's next?

DJ (San Marcos, Texas): I had the misfortune of playing against Doug Martin this week, and to make matters worse, my QB Tom Brady was on a bye. But thanks to your advice on Carson Palmer, I was able to make the key bye-week pickup that kept my winning streak alive. Thanks!

TMR: I have no idea what to do with this.

Brenna (Baltimore): I just wanted to thank you for your weekly articles. This is my first season of fantasy football and I have had more fun reading your stuff and playing every week. As a girl it was a little intimidating entering a male-dominated league but I found your articles extremely helpful and it gave me the confidence to go out on a limb sometimes with my starters. Anyways, thanks a bunch!!

TMR: I give up.

Time now for this week's Love/Hate. As always, please use my weekly rankings, updated throughout the week. Except for you, "Rick." You've been cursed. With a shoutout to John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information for all his help, here we go.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 10[/h]
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: At home in front of a Monday night crowd against a defense that is 30th in total points allowed with an offensive coordinator who wants to run up the score on his former team. It's like a fantasy lunar eclipse. Doesn't come along often but when it does, you stop what you're doing and watch it unfold with your kids.

Matthew Stafford, Lions: Gets back to being Matthew Stafford this week against a Vikings defense that has given up six touchdowns in the past two games to Russell Wilson and Josh Freeman. He threw for 319 against them in Week 4 as well and played well last week (completing 67 percent of his passes).

Carson Palmer, Raiders: Well, I loved him all season so I'm certainly still on after last week. He's averaging just over 41 pass attempts a game, that's fourth-most in the NFL. And that's when they had some semblance of a run game. He's gonna turn it over once or twice here but the Ravens defense isn't what it used to be (22nd against the pass) and generally speaking, you throw that much against a middle-of-the-road defense, fantasy goodness happens.

If you're desperate: When Ryan Fitzpatrick faced the Patriots earlier this year, he threw for 350 yards and four scores. Well, and four picks, but who's nitpicking? It won't be pretty but at the end of the day he'll have solid numbers. With apologies to Chris Berman, nobody circles the junk time like Ryan Fitzpatrick. … Ryan Tannehill is the answer to this trivia question; considering no quarterback facing the Titans this year has ever scored fewer than 15 points, who faces them this week? … And making a triumphant return to the "if you're desperate" section is Russell Wilson, who has at least two touchdowns in three of his last four and the one game he didn't was against the 49ers. Not a great matchup, but not terrible either, and I like that they are at home and Sidney Rice is healthy.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 10
Michael Vick, Eagles: His rushing will keep his numbers respectable, but that offensive line is in a shambles (seven sacks allowed to the Saints last week), so I expect Vick to spend a lot of the day having close personal interactions with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. For all the issues the Cowboys have (their run game, their late-game performance, their insecurity, the fact they work too much and have trouble expressing their emotions, etc.), the pass defense isn't one of them, as the secondary allows the fifth-fewest amount of passing yards per game this year.

Jay Cutler, Bears: Can't I just say that he faces the Texans? Has a league-worst 14 sacks and sixth-worst 52.4 completion percentage when facing at least five pass rushers? And Houston has the most aggressive defense in the league, sending five or more pass rushers on 44.9 percent of dropbacks?
Matt Schaub, Texans: It's not like playing the Bears is a cakewalk.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Not unless your league gives points for handoffs. Even Cam Cameron can't ignore the game film of what Doug Martin just did to the Ravens' next opponent.

[/h][h=3]Running Backs I love in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: I include him only because I want to share this stat, which I think is unbelievable: He has 515 yards after contact this year. If you took just his yards after contact, he'd be 19th in the NFL among running backs in total rushing yards. Still less than a year removed from ACL surgery. Ka-RAZY.

Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Insert running back playing Tennessee here.

Steven Ridley, Patriots: You know what's fun? Going Next Level. Seriously. Try it with me here. The Bills have allowed 5.6 yards per rush between the tackles this season, the highest rate in the NFL. And in Week 4 against the Bills, the Patriots had 33 rushes between the tackles, gaining 200 yards (6.1 yards per rush) and scoring twice. Ridley had 106 yards and two scores last time they played.

Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Remember when the Vikings run defense used to be good?

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: So here's another very reasonable email I got that I didn't include in the intro.

Jeff (El Dorado Hills, Calif.): Well, Berry, I get your Martin take last weekend. Now that he has erupted in Clinton Portis rookie fashion, do you think he and Freeman and his receivers are gold this second half? I guess what I'm asking is, can the Buccaneers be a fantasy powerhouse the remainder of the season? BTW: I benched Martin this weekend based on your analysis. I read Chris (Harris)'s also. I started Ryan Mathews and Alfred Morris over him. However, my opponent's AP, Brandon Marshall and San Diego Chargers D did so much damage, I still would have lost. Easier pill to swallow. I still believe in your analysis.
Thanks, Jeff. I appreciate that. So here's my take on Martin the rest of the year: Yes, he's clearly a No. 1 running back. But I'd still rather have guys like Arian Foster, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, and I think he's neck and neck with guys like LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris.

He has benefited from a good schedule: Martin's average opponent this season has allowed 4.4 yards per rush, which would rank eighth-worst in the league as its own team. In fact, he has faced three of the seven worst teams in the league in yards per rush, and the best team he's faced statistically so far has been Dallas, which ranks 12th in the league with 4.1 yards allowed per rush. Martin had 19 rushes for 53 yards against the Cowboys, and that was with Carl Nicks.

So Sunday will be a true test: The Chargers defense is fifth-best in the NFL, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush and only 1.3 yards after contact per rush. Having said all that … he is in the love section because I obviously believe in his talent (hey, I even wrote that last week), and history is on his side. I asked the great Tristan H. Cockroft, who keeps a meticulous database of all this kind of stuff, to look up what running backs did the week after they had an insane game (47 fantasy points or more). See the chart below; not one ever had fewer than 17 points in their next game.
[/h][h=3]Follow-up To Best Running Back Fantasy Performances[/h][h=3]

Player	Big Performance	Follow-up week	Season totals
Name	Team	Year	Wk	FPTS	Wk	FPTS	G	FPTS	Pos. Rk
Shaun Alexander	Sea	2002	4	52	6	17	16	251	6
Mike Anderson	Den	2000	14	49	15	25	14	240	4
Corey Dillon	Cin	1997	15	51	16	18	16	185	7
Marshall Faulk	StL	2002	7	47	9	28	14	188	15
Jerome Harrison	Cle	2009	15	47	16	18	14	137	23
Priest Holmes	KC	2002	12	48	13	28	14	361	1
Clinton Portis	Den	2003	14	54	15	25	13	262	5
Fred Taylor	Jac	2000	12	48	13	18	13	233	5

Marcel Reece, Raiders: You already know I think they are going to throw it a ton. I expect Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson to miss this game, and Oakland doesn't trust Taiwan Jones yet. Reece is the superior pass blocker and pass catcher, so in a game in which they're throwing it at least 40 times, Reece stands to have a very nice flex-worthy day as a pass catcher, throwing in the occasional run.

If you're desperate: I am assuming Donald Brown does not play Thursday night, making Vick Ballard a top-20 play against Jacksonville's 27th-ranked run defense. … All the bad Buffalo Bills run defense stats apply to Shane Vereen as well, especially since Brandon Bolden is banged up. Could see the Ridley scraps being more than enough for Vereen to be flex-worthy. … Joique Bell continues to get work (27 touches the last two weeks) and the Vikings have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs in just the past four games. …The whole "getting a decent amount of work and has a good matchup" thing also applies to Daniel Thomas this week. … Keep an eye on Lance Dunbar this weekend against Philly. Decent matchup, and that job is ripe for the taking until DeMarco Murray comes back.

[/h][h=3]Running Backs I hate in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Top-10 talent that I have outside my top 10 and frankly, I still might be too high on him. Maybe by putting him in here I can reverse-jinx him. So, you know about the lack of touches. But even when he's touching the ball, here's a concern: He has just 17 yards after contact (1.0 yards after contact per rush) the past two games. In fact, his 2.5 yards per rush average is the worst of any Chiefs rusher, including Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. And over the past four weeks, the Steelers are fourth-best in the NFL with a 3.7 yards per rush-allowed average. Oh, and I'm pretty sure the Chiefs are going to be down in this game, and you know how they like to bail on their run game. My guess is you don't have better options to start than him, but lower your expectations even lower, if you can.

Fred Jackson, Bills: Does not have the big-play ability that C.J. Spiller has, and New England has allowed just 3.5 yards per rush, secon- best in the league. In fact, they've allowed just one rush of at least 20 yards this year. You're hoping for yards in the receiving game here and I don't see him getting enough of them to warrant being anything other than a low-end flex.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Plays the 49ers. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: So much for that whole "committing to one guy" thing. Sigh.

Shonn Green, Jets: Not on the road at Seattle. I don't care how good he's looked or how human Seattle has looked. Not feeling it.

[/h][h=3]Wide Receivers I love in Week 10

Wes Welker, Patriots: Say this for the Bills: they find a bunch of different ways to be bad. Did you know they have allowed a 78.7 completion percentage on passes targeting receivers lined up in the slot, the highest of any defense in the league? And, of course, Welker is third in the NFL in targets from the slot.

Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: Think he's motivated against his former team? You know, the one he sat out almost a whole season with? The one he kept trying to leave? Yeah, me too.
Danny Amendola, Rams: Welcome back, Danny. More slot receiver stats: The 49ers defense has allowed 39 receptions to slot receivers this season; that's tied for second-most in the NFL. And even though Amendola has only played five games this year, he's tied for sixth with 35 targets out of the slot.

Brian Hartline, Dolphins: Only five teams have allowed more 20-plus yard completions than the Tennessee Titans. Coming off a 100-yard game and leading the Dolphins in targets, Hartline is a legit fantasy starter this week.

If you're desperate: The Colts secondary is really banged up, so in what should be a decently high-scoring game, it should be another productive week for Cecil Shorts. … Three scores in four games for Sidney Rice who, like Russell Wilson, had just the one bad game versus San Francisco. … With Antonio Brown out, I like Emmanuel Sanders more than Jerricho Cotchery in the run-up-the-score-against-KC sweepstakes. … If you just need something this week, there may not be a safer bet for 40 to 50 yards this week than Davone Bess against the Titans.

[/h][h=3]Wide Receivers I hate in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Steve Smith, Panthers: Champ Bailey continues to play like a shut-down corner this year (except against A.J. Green, but then again, Smith is no A.J. Green), and Cam has really struggled when playing good teams. In a great matchup last week, Smith finally scored his first touchdown of the year but still had only 41 yards. Hard to count on another score here.

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles: Single-digit fantasy points in three of the last four, he's just not connecting with Vick these days and as I said in the Vick post, I feel the passing game is under duress all game, making Maclin a flex play at best this week.

[/h][h=3]Tight Ends I love in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Heath Miller, Steelers: See Roethlisberger, Ben.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: The Broncos give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, Olsen is second on the team in targets and Steve Smith is gonna have Champ Bailey all up in his bid-ness.

Brandon Myers, Raiders: So there are 33 tight ends with at least 25 targets this season, right? And no one has caught a higher percentage of his targets than Brandon Myers (79.6 percent). He has 39 catches, which ranks fifth in the league. I wouldn't count on the touchdowns from last week repeating but in a game where I don't expect a ton of running and lots of passing, Myers should continue to see enough targets to make him a high-end TE2/low-end TE1. The Ravens, incidentally, have allowed 21 receptions and 228 yards to opposing tight ends in their past three games.

Dwayne Allen, Colts: More fun with completion percentage: 22 tight ends have had at least 10 targets in the past three weeks. Dwayne Allen leads them with an 84.6 completion percentage (11 catches on 13 targets). Ten receptions for 131 yards in the past two games, Coby Fleener is out, and only Reggie Wayne has more targets inside an opponents' 10-yard line.

If you're desperate: Anthony Fasano plays for Miami, which, you may have heard, faces the Titans. … Joel Dreessen now has four touchdowns in his past six games, and the Panthers allow the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

[/h][h=3]Tight Ends I hate in Week 10

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: I realize he had a good game against the Vikings last time out and that their defense is reeling, but with less than 40 yards in three of the past four games and only one touchdown on the year, it seems like, due to the emergence of Mikel Leshoure and Bell, they no longer use dump-offs to Pettigrew as their "run game" this year. He's a TE2 for me with limited upside.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: This is me, peering over the cliff, trying to figure why Kyle fell off it. The touchdowns were always somewhat flukey but they just seem to ignore him in the middle of the field, which was the opposite of where it seemed like it was heading. Anyway, in the meantime, I'll just reach into the fridge to pour myself a glass of milk and … hey, there he is! Hi, Kyle!

Jared Cook, Titans: The Dolphins have yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end this season.

Jermichael Finley, Packers: Hey Berry, you say, Finley's on a bye this week. To which I say: How can you tell?

[/h][h=3]Defenses I love in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST: Until further notice, you are starting your defense against the Chiefs.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST: Eagles allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and the Philly offensive line, which has already struggled to protect Vick, is gonna be without Todd Herremans. The Cowboys available in over 60 percent of leagues.

Miami Dolphins D/ST: It's not just the Titans defense that is bad! Their offense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Miami has been inconsistent as a fantasy defense this year but I like them at home this week, especially since it looks like Jake Locker will start.

If you're desperate: The Detroit Lions have averaged more than seven points a game since their bye week and face a struggling Christian Ponder. … Never a bad bet to go against Philip Rivers and Norv Turner, so the Bucs at home should be decent.

[/h][h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST: Can they fire Juan Castillo again?

San Diego Chargers D/ST: Muscle Hamster this! Don't get sucked in by last week's dominating performance. The Bolts are better than they get credit for, but that was more a result of Kansas City's ineptitude. As well as Tampa is playing on offense these days, I don't see a big day here.

[/h]

HacheMan · Nov 8, 2012

Flex rankings: Falcons ranked favorably

Eric Karabell

Someone posed an interesting question last week on Twitter about these flex rankings, and my answer is worth sharing with everyone: The reason we don't simply start the rankings with say, No. 10 at running back and wide receiver is because we just don't know where that line is with fantasy teams, and we shouldn't leave any options out. Take this week, for example, with Arian Foster not being in the top spot. In theory, someone could own the two running backs ranked ahead of Foster this week, and would have to consider sitting the Houston Texans' stud if his active roster limit was two running backs.
That's unlikely, of course, but it's still possible, and it's why we don't simply start our top 100 list with the likes of Rashad Jennings or Andre Johnson. We have to make sure all the worthy flex options are properly ranked.

Hopefully these flex rankings have been helpful for you this season. For more advice, check out the Week 10 staff rankings in the usual spots, and perhaps your question was answered either in my Wednesday chat session or will be by my colleagues today or tomorrow. You can also find me on Twitter (I am @karabellespn).

Good luck in Week 10 and beyond, and remember the Colts and Jaguars play tonight!

1. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Faces the same Oakland defense that Doug Martin embarrassed. Just don't expect 200-plus yards again.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: If not for Martin's huge game, Peterson's Week 9 performance would have received more attention. What a season he has had!
3. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Only No. 3. Say it isn't so! He's still a fantasy monster.
4. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
5. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Wasn't exactly running poorly before Week 9, either. The entire Tampa Bay offense is cruising.
6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Had 100 rushing yards in the first half Monday night. He finished with 119 yards. Welcome to your 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.
7. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: You'll get at least a touchdown every week. Can't say that about any other players.
8. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Watch the Falcons put up 40 points on the Saints.
9. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
10. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: His knee problem didn't look like much of a problem last week.
11. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
12. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: The opposing Texans are the only NFL team that has not allowed a rushing touchdown. But Forte should get plenty of yards.
13. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: In the past, just when we begin to trust this guy, you know what happens. But his 141-yard explosion against the Bears was really a bunch of nothing special and then a big run. I'd still sell high.
14. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
15. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Yeah, he's slowing down, but here comes another 100-yard rushing game to anger the haters.
16. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
17. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: Just because he's older than most other wide receivers does not mean he'll tire as the season wears on.
18. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: His last decent fantasy game came in Week 6. But here come the Buffalo Bills to the rescue!
19. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
20. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: Speaking of matchups, everyone runs on the Tennessee Titans. Watch Ryan Tannehill have a nice game as well.
21. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears
22. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
23. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
24. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
25. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions: Broke up a subpar month of performances with a three-touchdown performance. Is there anything in between?
26. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers
27. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
28. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers: He's always a good play, and the fact that Antonio Brown might sit shouldn't really affect Wallace, good or bad.
29. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: He should always be a good play, but we have doubts now because of his odd usage recently.
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants
31. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: He could have had twice as big a game against Philly, but the Saints decided to run more.
32. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: Certainly more reliable than his colleague, the one with the three-letter first name.
33. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos
34. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals
35. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Hey, he scored a touchdown! He might score another this week! But don't presume a big second half is pending.
36. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Hard to like the matchup, even if he does see more touches than normal.
37. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Not just a good matchup for Ray Rice.
38. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars: Should get another few weeks before Maurice Jones-Drew comes back.
39. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
40. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: Still getting plenty of targets, but not connecting with Tom Terrific.
41. Vick Ballard, RB, Colts: Looks like he's got game, for sure. But also looks like he's in a timeshare.
42. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
43. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
44. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Make sure he plays before plugging him in.
45. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers: Make sure he's starting before you start him.
46. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: Just when you thought he would get big-time touches, he doesn't. Can't say it's too surprising.
47. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs
48. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
49. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
50. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
51. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: So the Panthers led you to believe he'd get more carries. There's just no trusting NFL coaches, is there?
52. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
53. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: Remember when he was among the top receivers in the league? He has just one game with more than five fantasy points all year.
54. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Still hasn't dropped a pass all year, but without much of an offensive line, it has been tough for Michael Vick to connect with D-Jax downfield.
55. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
56. Lance Moore, WR, Saints
57. Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins
58. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Statistics not looking so good lately, but you have to like this Saints matchup.
59. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
60. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots
61. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers: Seems odd seeing his name here, but he's the Antonio Brown fill-in, Big Ben will be throwing early and often, and this is a marvelous matchup.
62. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
63. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
64. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
65. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Hard to believe he looked like a really good player once upon a time.
66. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
67. Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders: Might get much of his production via the passing game, but so what?
68. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots: Should be this week's beneficiary of the garbage-time stats.
69. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks
70. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
71. Nate Washington, WR, Titans
72. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: In theory, Britt would seem to look better with strong-armed Jake Locker at quarterback, but it has been a while, and Locker wasn't playing great to begin with.
73. Titus Young, WR, Lions: People love him when he's doing well, and seem to ignore the bad games.
74. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: It's not merely a good matchup for Reggie Bush, but Thomas as well.
75. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders
76. Danny Amendola, WR, Rams: Welcome back! And once he gets through this tough matchup, he'll look a lot better.
77. Heath Miller, TE, Steelers
78. Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets
79. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
80. Davone Bess, WR, Dolphins: I'm calling it now: He's going to score his first touchdown of the season this week.
81. Donald Brown, RB, Colts: Not a guarantee he plays, but if he does, he should get plenty of touches.
82. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans
83. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars
84. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: Complained quite a bit about a lack of targets, and he's right. Should get more of 'em this week.
85. Andre Brown, RB, Giants
86. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars
87. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
88. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
89. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams
90. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
91. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals
92. Chris Ivory, RB, Saints: Watching him on Monday, one must wonder why the Saints weren't using him more in previous weeks, or at least why he wasn't trade bait to some desperate team.
93. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks
94. Michael Bush, RB, Bears: Last scored a touchdown in Week 3, and TD-scoring is supposed to be his primary skill.
95. Chris Givens, WR, Rams
96. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers
97. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
98. Donald Jones, WR, Bills: This sleeper option scored the last time the Bills played the Pats.
99. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
100. Donnie Avery, WR, Colts
Others: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals; Delone Carter, RB, Colts; Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions; Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs; Stephen Hill, WR, Jets; Brandon Myers, TE, Raiders; Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers; Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders; Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens; Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers; Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots; Ronnie Brown, RB, Chargers; Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks; Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos.

HacheMan · Nov 9, 2012

Value Meter: Peterson back atop running back rankings

Coming off a season-high 182 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 running back in our weekly Value Meter position rankings. And remember, you can get updated rankings at each position, plus flex and return specialist rankings as well -- right up until kickoff on Sunday at FFToolbox.com. *-check status
SIZZLERS AND FIZZLERS: Luck, Charles headed in opposite directions
QUARTERBACK
1 Tom Brady, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
2 Matt Ryan, Atl. -- at N.O.
3 Drew Brees, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
4 Peyton Manning, Den. -- at Car.
5 Cam Newton, Car. -- vs. Den.
6 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
7 Matthew Stafford, Det. -- at Min.
8 Andrew Luck, Ind. -- at Jac.
9 Josh Freeman, T.B. -- vs. S.D.
10 Tony Romo, Dal. -- at Phi.
11 Eli Manning, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
12 Andy Dalton, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
13 Carson Palmer, Oak. -- at Bal.
14 Michael Vick, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
15 Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf. -- at N.E.
16 Ryan Tannehill, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
17 Philip Rivers, S.D. -- at T.B.
18 Alex Smith, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
19 Jay Cutler, Chi. -- vs. Hou.
20 Russell Wilson, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
21 Joe Flacco, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
22 Matt Hasselbeck, Ten. -- at Mia.
23 Christian Ponder, Min. -- vs. Det.
24 Matt Schaub, Hou. -- at Chi.
25 Sam Bradford, St.L. -- at S.F.
RUNNING BACK
1 Adrian Peterson, Min. -- vs. Det.
2 Ray Rice, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
3 Doug Martin, T.B. -- vs. S.D.
4 LeSean McCoy, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
5 Arian Foster, Hou. -- at Chi.
6 Marshawn Lynch, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
7 Frank Gore, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
8 Ryan Mathews, S.D. -- at T.B.
9 Matt Forte, Chi. -- vs. Hou.
10 Michael Turner, Atl. -- at N.O.
11 Mikel Leshoure, Det. -- at Min.
12 Reggie Bush, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
13 Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
14 Rashad Jennings, Jac. -- vs. Ind.
15 Willis McGahee, Den. -- at Car.
16 C.J. Spiller, Buf. -- at N.E.
17 Stevan Ridley, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
18 Chris Johnson, Ten. -- at Mia.
19 *Jamaal Charles, K.C. -- at Pit.
20 Fred Jackson, Buf. -- at N.E.
21 Vick Ballard, Ind. -- at Jac.
22 Felix Jones, Dal. -- at Phi.
23 Marcel Reece, Oak. -- at Bal.
24 Steven Jackson, St.L. -- at S.F.
25 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
26 Isaac Redman, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
27 Jonathan Stewart, Car. -- vs. Den.
28 Shonn Greene, N.Y.-J. -- at Sea.
29 Pierre Thomas, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
30 Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl. -- at N.O.
31 *Rashard Mendenhall, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
32 Andre Brown, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
33 Daniel Thomas, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
34 Joique Bell, Det. -- at Min.
35 Mark Ingram, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
36 Christopher Ivory, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
37 Kendall Hunter, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
38 Danny Woodhead, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
39 Michael Bush, Chi. -- vs. Hou.
40 Lamar Miller, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
41 Daryl Richardson, St.L. -- at S.F.
42 Phillip Tanner, Dal. -- at Phi.
43 *Darren McFadden, Oak. -- at Bal.
44 *Donald Brown, Ind. -- at Jac.
45 Jackie Battle, S.D. -- at T.B.
46 DeAngelo Williams, Car. -- vs. Den.
47 Peyton Hillis, K.C. -- at Pit.
48 Brandon Bolden, N.E. vs. Buf.
49 Taiwan Jones, Oak. -- at Bal.
50 Mike Tolbert, Car. -- vs. Den.

WIDE RECEIVER
1 Julio Jones, Atl. -- at N.O.
2 Brandon Marshall, Chi. -- vs. Hou.
3 Victor Cruz, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
4 A.J. Green, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
5 Roddy White, Atl. -- at N.O.
6 Demaryius Thomas, Den. -- at Car.
7 Vincent Jackson, T.B. -- vs. S.D.
8 *Calvin Johnson, Det. -- at Min.
9 Reggie Wayne, Ind. -- at Jac.
10 Eric Decker, Den. -- at Car.
11 Marques Colston, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
12 *Wes Welker, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
13 Torrey Smith, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
14 Miles Austin, Dal. -- at Phi.
15 Mike Wallace, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
16 Steve Smith, Car. -- vs. Den.
17 *Hakeem Nicks, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
18 Denarius Moore, Oak. -- at Bal.
19 Dez Bryant, Dal. -- at Phi.
20 Malcom Floyd, S.D. -- at T.B.
21 Andre Johnson, Hou. -- at Chi.
22 Brandon Lloyd, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
23 *Steve Johnson, Buf. -- at N.E.
24 Jeremy Maclin, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
25 Dwayne Bowe, K.C. -- at Pit.
26 Brian Hartline, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
27 DeSean Jackson, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
28 Mike Williams, T.B. -- vs. S.D.
29 Sidney Rice, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
30 Anquan Boldin, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
31 Michael Crabtree, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
32 Cecil Shorts Jac. -- vs. Ind.
33 Lance Moore, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
34 Nate Washington, Ten. -- at Mia.
35 Danny Amendola, St.L. -- at S.F.
36 Davone Bess, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
37 Donnie Avery, Ind. -- at Jac.
38 Jeremy Kerley, N.Y.-J. -- at Sea.
39 Titus Young, Det. -- at Min.
40 Kendall Wright, Ten. -- at Mia.
41 *Brandon LaFell, Car. -- vs. Den.
42 Golden Tate, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
43 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. -- at Bal.
44 Kenny Britt, Ten. -- at Mia.
45 Justin Blackmon, Jac. -- vs. Ind.
46 Brandon Stokley, Den. -- at Car.
47 Jacoby Jones, Hou. -- vs. Oak.
48 Chris Givens, St.L. -- at S.F.
49 Emmanuel Sanders, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
50 Andrew Hawkins, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
TIGHT END
1 Rob Gronkowski, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
2 Jimmy Graham, N.O. -- vs. Atl.
3 Tony Gonzalez, Atl. -- at N.O.
4 *Aaron Hernandez, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
5 Owen Daniels, Hou. -- at Chi.
6 Jason Witten, Dal. -- at Phi.
7 Antonio Gates, S.D. -- at T.B.
8 Brandon Myers, Oak. -- at Bal.
9 Brent Celek, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
10 Vernon Davis, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
11 Jermaine Gresham, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
12 Heath Miller, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
13 Kyle Rudolph, Min. -- vs. Det.
14 Anthony Fasano, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
15 Martellus Bennett, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
16 Brandon Pettigrew, Det. -- at Min.
17 Jared Cook, Ten. -- at Mia.
18 Dustin Keller, N.Y.-J. -- at Sea.
19 Greg Olsen, Car. -- vs. Den.
20 Dwayne Allen, Ind. -- at Jac.
21 Scott Chandler, Buf. -- at N.E.
22 Dennis Pitta, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
23 Zach Miller, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
24 Joel Dreessen, Den. -- at Car.
25 Marcedes Lewis, Jac. -- vs. Ind.
KICKER
1 Lawrence Tynes, N.Y.-G. -- at Cin.
2 Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. -- vs. Buf.
3 Shaun Suisham, Pit. -- vs. K.C.
4 Jason Hanson, Det. -- at Min.
5 Justin Tucker, Bal. -- vs. Oak.
6 David Akers, S.F. -- vs. St.L.
7 Dan Bailey, Dal. -- at Phi.
8 Matt Bryant, Atl. -- at N.O.
9 Blair Walsh, Min. -- vs. Det.
10 Alex Henery, Phi. -- vs. Dal.
11 Sebastian Janikowski, Oak. -- at Bal.
12 Matt Prater, Den. -- at Car.
13 Adam Vinatieri, Ind. -- at Jac.
14 Mike Nugent, Cin. -- vs. N.Y.-G.
15 Robbie Gould, Chi. -- vs. Hou.
16 Greg Zuerlein, St.L. -- at S.F.
17 Nick Novak, S.D. -- at T.B.
18 Josh Scobee, Jac. -- vs. Ind.
19 Connor Barth, T.B. -- vs. S.D.
20 Shayne Graham, Hou. -- at Chi.
21 Dan Carpenter, Mia. -- vs. Ten.
22 Steven Hauschka, Sea. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
23 Ryan Succop, K.C. -- at Pit.
24 Nick Folk, N.Y.-J. -- at Sea.
25 Rob Bironas, Ten. -- at Mia.
DEFENSE
1 Pittsburgh -- vs. K.C.
2 Chicago -- vs. Hou.
3 San Francisco -- vs. St.L.
4 Houston -- at Chi.
5 New England -- vs. Buf.
6 Seattle -- vs. N.Y.-J.
7 New York Giants -- at Cin.
8 Miami -- vs. Ten.
9 Baltimore -- vs. Oak.
10 Detroit -- at Min.
11 Denver -- at Car.
12 New York Jets -- at Sea.
13 Minnesota -- vs. Det.
14 Philadelphia -- vs. Dal.
15 Dallas -- at Phi.
16 Atlanta -- at N.O.
17 Tampa Bay -- vs. S.D.
18 Indianapolis -- at Jac.
19 Jacksonville -- vs. Ind.
20 Tennessee -- at Mia.
21 Cincinnati -- vs. N.Y.-G.
22 Carolina -- vs. Den.
23 San Diego -- at T.B.
24 Kansas City -- at Pit.
25 Buffalo -- at N.E.

HacheMan · Nov 11, 2012

Best, worst plays for fantasy playoffs

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

This week on the Fantasy Underground podcast (also available on iTunes), Field Yates and I talked about Doug Martin, Eli Manning, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, Denarius Moore, Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones, Russell Wilson, the Indianapolis Colts D/ST and the Chicago Bears D/ST. So you won't find discussions of those players in this column. Here are 10 other topics:

Five In Depth

1. The best and worst QB matchups: On the Underground podcast before Week 9, Field and I started talking about fantasy playoff schedules. The ESPN standard leagues' regular season runs through Week 13, so if you're gearing up for the playoffs, it's not a bad strategy to find some gems who have a better-than-average chance of benefiting from the schedule in Weeks 14 to 17. Toward that end, this week's Hard Count is going to take some time to process data and figure out which defenses have been the best and worst to face. Let's start with the way defenses have treated quarterbacks.

My metrics are based on how good or bad NFL defenses have been at keeping quarterbacks from attaining their weekly fantasy point averages. While I base as much of my analysis as possible on watching game film, this is the statistical "special sauce" behind my weekly rankings. At this point in the season, I diminish the importance of early-season performance. This analysis is weighted heavily toward the past five weeks. Here are my defense-versus-QB metrics as of Week 9, which I'll explain afterward:

	Best vs. QB			Worst vs. QB
1	Jets	-5.2	32	Bills	6.0
2	Panthers	-5.2	31	Redskins	5.2
3	Steelers	-4.8	30	Buccaneers	4.7
4	Bears	-4.7	29	Titans	4.4
5	49ers	-4.5	28	Vikings	4.2
6	Falcons	-4.1	27	Saints	3.9
7	Jaguars	-3.9	26	Dolphins	3.5
8	Broncos	-3.6

The translation of this chart goes like this: You can expect the New York Jets defense to shave 5.2 fantasy points off the scoring average of a quarterback they face. (Again, these numbers are strongly weighted to the past five weeks, which makes this number quite impressive considering the Jets have been without Darrelle Revis since Week 3.) And you can expect the Buffalo Bills defense to add 6.0 fantasy points onto the scoring average of a quarterback. The standard deviation of this data for all 32 teams is 3.4, so the best and worst listed above are the teams outside the standard deviation.

Potential fantasy playoff beneficiaries: Sam Bradford (@BUF, MIN, @TB, @SEA in Weeks 14-17); Matt Schaub (@NE, IND, MIN, @IND); Michael Vick (@TB, CIN, WAS, @NYG).

Potential fantasy playoff victims: Philip Rivers (@PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK); Carson Palmer (DEN, KC, @CAR, @SD); Matthew Stafford (@GB, @ARI, ATL, CHI).

2. The best and worst RB matchups: I use the same methodology for determining which defenses are adept and struggling against opposing running backs, with a standard deviation for all 32 teams of 3.6. Here are the defenses on the margins for good and bad:

[h=3][/h]

	Best vs. RB			Worst vs. RB
1	Texans	-7.4	32	Bills	8.7
2	49ers	-5.5	31	Ravens	6.1
3	Jets	-4.4	30	Jaguars	5.9
4	Chiefs	-4.2	29	Browns	4.8
5	Bears	-4.1	28	Titans	4.6
6	Patriots	-3.7	27	Raiders	3.6
7	Panthers	-3.6
8	Dolphins	-3.6

It's worth noting how incredibly bad the Bills defense is, providing the best matchups for opposing quarterbacks and running backs. This unit played a bit better against the Houston Texans last week, as Mario Williams had his best game of the season, Kyle Williams continued yeoman's work amid chaos, and Jairus Byrd proved he is not just a ball-hawking safety, stepping up and making several nice plays against the running game. Maybe this group will start to live up to its lofty preseason billing. For the moment, though, it should be considered the gold standard for opponents.

Potential fantasy playoff beneficiaries: Shonn Greene (@JAC, @TEN, SD, @BUF); Alfred Morris (BAL, @CLE, @PHI, DAL); Jamaal Charles (@CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN).

Potential fantasy playoff victims: Donald Brown (TEN, @HOU, MIN, HOU); Beanie Wells (@SEA, DET, CHI, @SF); Adrian Peterson (CHI, @STL, @HOU, GB).

3. The best and worst WR matchups: There is decidedly imperfect overlap between defenses' proclivities against quarterbacks and wideouts. The reasons should be obvious: quarterbacks pass to players other than wide receivers, quarterbacks score fantasy points via their legs, a wide receiver's fantasy value is far more touchdown-dependent than a quarterback's, etc. You'll see some recurring teams, but not a duplicate of the quarterback list:

[h=3][/h]

	Best vs. WR			Worst vs. WR
1	Jets	-6.9	32	Saints	7.2
2	Panthers	-6.2	31	Titans	5.8
3	Broncos	-5.9	30	Packers	4.6
4	49ers	-5.2	29	Giants	4.4
5	Seahawks	-4.9	28	Dolphins	4.3
6	Steelers	-4.6	27	Buccaneers	3.7
7	Eagles	-4.4
8	Vikings	-4.3
9	Jaguars	-4.0

Where are the Bills? They're 26th on the list, just inside the standard deviation of 3.7. They're still likely a positive matchup for wide receivers, just not as positive as for quarterbacks or running backs.

Please note that these numbers are all well and good, but they're no substitute for watching with your own eyes. I try my best not to be blinded by Excel spreadsheets. Treating something as flighty as fantasy points -- which as we all know are incredibly touchdown-dependent and thus incredibly difficult to project -- as purely scientific is a losing battle. The official motto of the Fantasy Underground podcast is "Fighting the tyranny of the box score," and I believe stats can be tyrannical. However, numbers do have their place, and defensive bodies in motion do tend to stay in motion. If your fantasy stud is going up against Rex Ryan's defense, it's a legitimate cause for concern.

Potential Playoff Beneficiaries: Reggie Wayne (TEN, @HOU, @KC, HOU); DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (@TB, CIN, WAS, @NYG); Percy Harvin (CHI, @STL, @HOU, GB).

Potential Playoff Victims: Malcom Floyd (@PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK); Denarius Moore (DEN, KC, @CAR, @SD); Larry Fitzgerald (@SEA, DET, CHI, @SF).

4. What's up with the Baltimore Ravens' passing offense? And more importantly, why is it murdering Torrey Smith's fantasy value? Smith scored a touchdown last week against the Cleveland Browns, but he hasn't eclipsed 50 yards receiving or four catches in a game since Week 4. In Baltimore's past two games, it hasn't been for lack of trying: Smith has four catches in each game on 13 and nine targets. Remember those puff-piece stories about the high-powered, remade Ravens offense? Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it?

Joe Flacco is a weird quarterback. He doesn't stink, despite what his doubters and statistics say. Flacco is on pace for 3,980 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, which is hauntingly similar to his mediocre numbers in 2010 and '11.

But you do see Flacco's huge arm on display. According to Stats LLC, he has 41 attempts that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air this season, putting him behind only Eli Manning, who has 45 in one more game. Against the Browns last week, his deep shots seemed to be good decisions. When he had Smith running deep and could see that safety help wouldn't be coming soon enough, he took deep shots and tried to let Smith make a play. Flacco picked on Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown, and those guys simply defended well.

One criticism of Flacco that I think has merit is his occasional lack of touch. He sometimes throws a nice lofted outside ball (Smith caught one of those Sunday), but often over the middle he hammers it into a window and either messes up his receiver's timing or just makes the ball too difficult to catch. Also, I don't think he throws enough to Ray Rice, who is on pace for 62 catches for 502 yards a year after grabbing 76 for 704. (Regular readers know I can't stand Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator, so I won't beat that dead horse again.)

More than anything, the Ravens just don't give you confidence that they can consistently sustain drives. The first quarter in Cleveland was terrific, with two touchdown drives that ate tons of time and frustrated the Browns, but Flacco and the Ravens let them back into the game by producing drives of five, three, three, three, three, three and three plays thereafter.

For most fantasy owners, the ship on Flacco as a fantasy starter has probably sailed. So what about Smith? His talent is evident. He belongs to a new generation of average-sized speed merchants who are learning to become complete, dangerous wideouts -- put Mike Wallace, Denarius Moore and maybe Chris Givens in that category. Smith's touchdown Sunday was a simple 7-yard square-in that he caught, turned, saw the defender too far off him and bolted to the right corner for a score. But despite the several shorter passes and wide receiver screens he saw Sunday, it's unfortunate that so much of Smith's fantasy value seems to rely on the deep ball, because that can be so hit-or-miss. (It didn't help that he had a couple pretty nasty drops.) As with Wallace, there will be weeks where Smith explodes because of his speed, but as with Moore, it's tough to see high enough volume to make Smith a top-20 fantasy wide receiver. I have him penciled in that 21-to-30 range with week-to-week explosive possibilities.

5. Now who starts at running back for the Green Bay Packers? James Starks didn't exactly cover himself in glory during his first play of 2012 as the Packers' starting running back. It was a called pass, and as Aaron Rodgers dropped back, Starks bounced out to help block Darnell Dockett and kind of just fell over. Watching the tape, I figured maybe he'd hurt himself, because it was all kinds of awkward. But he got a carry on the next play.

I've seen some outlets suggest that Starks played on all early downs while Alex Green was limited to third-down and hurry-up situations, but that's not true. In the first quarter, Starks got the first series and Green got the next two series, whereupon the backs began to rotate. However, Starks fumbled on a mid-second-quarter play and was exceedingly lucky that Rodgers hustled to pick up the ball; it came at the end of a run, and the ball was on the field for a tantalizing length of time before Rodgers sprinted into the picture. Starks was banished for nearly 15 full minutes of game time after that. Green handled the next eight RB touches before Starks reappeared mid-third quarter.

So truthfully, we probably don't have a complete picture of this backfield's workload. Would the rotation have been different without the Starks fumble? Possibly. For the day on first and second downs, Starks had 16 carries to Green's nine, but that figure was probably influenced by the banishment. I'm not going to make the argument that Starks is some kind of elite player, because I don't think he is. But at this stage in his pro career, he is a better rusher than Green. I don't buy him as some lumbering ox. At 6-foot-2 and 218 pounds, he can get to the edge and cut upfield, and he has better between-the-tackles instincts than the faster Green. If the Packers had to make a couple yards in the middle of the field, I think Green would pick the wrong hole and get bounced backward, whereas I think Starks gives them a chance.

There are two complicating factors: Cedric Benson and John Kuhn. Kuhn has been out with a bad hamstring but should reclaim third-down work when he returns, which could be as soon as Week 11 against the Detroit Lions. Benson is on injured reserve with a Lisfranc injury but is eligible to return in Week 14. Nobody really knows yet how realistic that is.

During Green Bay's bye, if I'm anticipating which running back has the most fantasy value, it's Starks. Even with Benson and Kuhn out, it may be too fractured a job to feel great about starting Starks in a standard-sized league. But if I'm stashing one of these dudes, Starks is my choice.

Five In Brief

6. Deciphering the Pittsburgh Steelers' backfield: Pittsburgh media reported that Rashard Mendenhall will get his starting job back once he's healthy, but that won't happen in Week 10. After Mendy, we're left to read the tea leaves. Isaac Redman was solid against the New York Giants last week, but Jonathan Dwyer may have been even better in Week 8 against the Washington Redskins. These two running backs have nearly identical frames and similar styles. They don't really make you miss, but they push the hole hard and get vertical quick. They'll also barrel through half-tackles and fight for yards. I think Dwyer is a better player. He is more agile and quicker through the defense's first level. But because his good game came more recently, I'd expect Redman to be the first man up Monday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. Expect these guys to alternate series until someone gets hot. The larger story is how well the Pittsburgh O-line is playing and how remarkable that is considering how many injuries it has faced. Rookie right tackle Mike Adams is still a mess in pass protection (why he's not referred to as "rookie left tackle Mike Adams"), but he has had back-to-back run-mashing games, turning the right side of that line, along with RG Ramon Foster and C Maurkice Pouncey, into a pile driver. Bottom line? Redman barely over Dwyer, with each guy considerable as a flex. Remember, Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley just got fired by the Chiefs. He's not likely to let up, even in a blowout.

7. Home/Road nonsense: Hooray! Julio Jones played well in a home game, to the tune of five grabs for 129 yards, which finally puts to bed one of the most nonsensical notions of the season. Until Sunday, Jones had produced four strong fantasy efforts in road games and three weak ones at home, which led pseudo-scientists to conclude that there was a pattern and warn you to stay away from him any time he played in the Georgia Dome. People, home/road splits mean something in baseball because the parks have different dimensions. Some baseball stadiums are legitimately statistically better for hitters or pitchers. Football fields are all the same size. Was Jones leaving too many tickets for his friends? Crowd noise is an issue sometimes, I suppose, but in the modern NFL, do we really think offenses haven't worked with stadium noise all week during practice? To say nothing of the fact that Jones was supposedly struggling during home games. Was it too quiet for him? Listen: The Atlanta Falcons receivers have occasionally struggled because they're all really good at their jobs. The ball finds different guys different weeks. If someone starts to peddle you home/road splits in football, nod sagely and back away. That's also true for contentions like, "Oh, he's always really struggled in Monday night games" or "Andy Reid's teams are always so great coming out of the bye." Heaven knows I traffic in enough statistics, but I can tell the difference between smart ones and dumb ones.

8. Where is Vernon Davis? Oh, he's out there. Davis is playing virtually every snap for the San Francisco 49ers, but in his past three games combined, he has five catches on seven targets for 71 yards, including a complete shutout in a Thursday night game against the Seattle Seahawks when Alex Smith didn't throw it Davis' way once. I watched the coaches' tape of the Niners' Monday-night throttling of the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 and saw San Francisco move Davis all over the formation, put him in motion and have him run different kinds of routes. The truth is there were times when the Cardinals had a linebacker on Davis' side, essentially playing zone in the middle, while a safety played him man-to-man. In such circumstances, Smith rightly didn't throw it Big Vern's way. But I also saw a few times where Davis streaked across the front of a zone wide open and Smith looked elsewhere. Weird. The route Smith seems to want to throw Davis' way is the post, and on his first reception of that game, Arizona cleared out the middle of the field and had Kerry Rhodes one-on-one with Davis. Smith hit him for a 25-yard gain. Still, I have to assume the 49ers spent the bye realizing that their best aerial weapon has to get more involved, and if I'm seeing missed opportunities on tape, you know they are. I admit it's kind of just blind faith trusting Davis right now, but I trust him. He's racking up 60 yards and a score this week.

9. Why I'd stick with Michael Vick: The other three ESPN rankers have Vick outside the top 10 in their QB ranks this week; I have him seventh. Why? It's pretty simple, I guess: He has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of the past three weeks. He scored 21 fantasy points in Week 6 against the Lions, which put him seventh among quarterbacks. He scored 15 in Week 8 versus the Falcons, good for a tie for 10th. And he scored 17 Monday night against the New Orleans Saints, which tied him for ninth. Are these elite totals? Nope. Are they surprisingly steady for a guy who has been at the center of so much controversy? Yup. And are they significantly better numbers than what Eli Manning or Cam Newton have produced in that time? Absolutely, and those are two quarterbacks the other rankers like, perhaps nominally, more than Vick this week. I agree that the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line is quite sieve-like at times and that Vick is one of the easier quarterbacks in the league to rattle with a blitz. But the dude can still run. He was dangerous against the Saints -- six carries for 53 yards -- and has a combined 154 rushing yards the past three weeks. That's around 15 fantasy points right there, which is the joy of a running quarterback. No doubt the Dallas Cowboys will come hard after Vick on Sunday, and no doubt he'll take some shots. But he deserved far better Monday night, having led several end-to-end drives before a teammate's mistake (usually Brent Celek) messed up a chance for a touchdown. Vick is still a massive injury risk, but I'm not benching him.

10. Pick up Taiwan Jones: I lied, claiming I wouldn't write about players we discussed on the UG podcast. But that's because when you're doing a podcast you don't always get to fire every arrow you have in your quiver. In talking about the men who remain standing in the Oakland Raiders backfield -- while Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson rest their injured ankles -- I believe I failed to lay out a clear strategy. If I'm looking for a player who will give me something this week, I probably add Marcel Reece. Reece, a converted collegiate wideout, is the NFL's most athletic fullback and has 26 catches in 2012, which is tied with Adrian Peterson for seventh among running backs. Alas, he has only one carry, so you probably won't see him with too many totes Sunday in a good matchup against the Ravens. But I won't be shocked if he's the goal-line choice -- it figures to be Reece or Owen Schmitt. In short, I'm not sure how the backfield snaps will be parceled out, but Reece appears to have a safer baseline for giving you something. However, the upside play is Jones, he of the 4.33 40 time at the 2011 combine. He is very much in the Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller mold, and as I mentioned on the podcast, I went back and watched tape of his only "involved" game last season. He wasn't slick or decisive to the hole, but when he got to the end, watch out. Jones has durability issues and could give you nothing, but he could give you an 84-yard touchdown on his first carry. In just about all leagues, Jones is the one who should be picked up, if not necessarily started. The odds aren't good, but there is a chance he could alter fantasy leagues.

HacheMan · Nov 11, 2012

So, about last week …

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So let's open up the ol' email bag and see what we got (I've changed names and edited for length).

Rick (San Diego): Really? Left guard issues are going to kill Doug Martin's value the rest of the way? ARE YOU FRICKIN' KIDDING ME MAN? Could you possibly be more wrong at any point in your career? I was sitting on a trade proposal for Doug Martin all week until your convincing plea that denigrated this running back's value. I had faith that you were getting paid for having some knowledge of the game. … DO NOT try to give fantasy football advice on your own anymore. It could have disastrous effects in reality and thousands could get hurt. The next time you think of giving fantasy advice, do the following: take a deep breath, count to ten, throw cold water on your face and then do a few jumping jacks. Hopefully this will wake you up to the reality that you should never ever give fantasy football advice.

TMR: Yeah … that's what I thought I'd find. Well, you know what, "Rick"? I'm not taking it this week. I'm ready for the lot of ya. First, if you listen to me, I'm probably the reason you drafted Martin in the first place. Talked him up all preseason, said the overall ranks were way too low on him. So you know what? You're welcome. And you know why I was talking him up all preseason, "Rick"? Let me remind you of this stat I used all preseason: In 2011, the Saints (who featured Carl Nicks at left guard) averaged 6.6 yards per carry going to the left, the second-best average in the NFL. And conversely, that same year, the Buccaneers averaged 3.0 yards per carry when going to the left, the worst figure in the league by a yard.

So then the Buccaneers sign Nicks to a $47 million deal and suddenly, instead of 3.0 yards per carry to the left, Martin comes in averaging 4.4 yards per carry going to the left. As expected. Remember, Tampa also lost Pro Bowl right guard Davin Joseph for the year in the preseason, and it just so happens that Martin was averaging just 3.2 yards per carry to the right.

So yeah, when the Bucs lose one of the best players in the NFL at his position, and it's the second elite lineman they've now lost for the year, it's reasonable to assume that the end result is not an improvement in the rookie running back's stock, and yeah, you got me, I didn't predict he'd have the third-best fantasy day since the year 2000.

But I certainly didn't tell you to bench him. I always say: use my rankings as a guide. I ranked him 12th last week. If I'd ranked him No. 1, you and everyone else would have called me crazy, and you'd have been right. Prior to the Bucs game, Oakland had had three straight weeks of holding opposing running backs to 50 total yards rushing or less. I repeat. All of the running backs in a game combined, less than 50 total yards rushing for all of them, three straight weeks. Since the Raiders' bye, they'd be great against the run (11th in the NFL) … until Sunday. And as for trading him: I never said trade him. I said I still believed in his talent but that I thought the loss of Nicks would hurt. I said I thought he went from a low-end No. 1 running back to a low-end No. 2 running back. That's what I said, "Rick."

So yes, given the data I had to work with, I stand by the call of lowering his rest-of-season rank. After one week, it looks like a terrible call, but it had a good basis for reasoning and that's all I can do: make a call based on data in front of me. And if you're not going to own up to the fact that you obviously saw something in my thinking too, then you know what, "Rick"? I'm glad you traded him. I hope your season goes down in flames. I hope you don't win another game. How you like that? I just sung an incantation to the fantasy gods and cursed you. Oh yeah, that's right. I have that kind of power.

Anyone else? 'Cause I see how this is gonna go. Oh yeah, one of those weeks. One call goes the wrong way and you know how the Internet works. All you vultures are just waiting to unleash the hate. Well, you know what? I don't care. I'm fired up. Bring it on! I'm ready.

Justin (Philadelphia): Just wanted to say thanks for the great advice on dumping Doug Martin.

Totally kidding. Love the article every week, you give great insight into the hilarious and awesome ride that is fantasy football. I was thinking the same thing about Martin as soon as I saw Nicks was out. I'm glad I didn't have any other options though … Keep up the good work Berry, you're the man.

TMR: Oh yeah?!? Well, I … uh … well … um … huh.
Tom (Merry Olde England): Matthew, I have been reading your Love/Hate for about 3 years and believe your articles and opinions/rankings to be mostly great. Using your knowledge to help me has worked out great so far in my short fantasy football career (multiple championships). However, last week upon reading that you had given up on Doug Martin and the reasons behind it, I decided to give up on him. … I was mad at you for about 5 seconds upon seeing Martin drop 51 points in my league and then I realized, in the end, it was all my decision and no matter how great of a FF writer you are, you cannot tell the future. Anyways, I will still continue to listen to your advice in the future. Thanks for everything and I look forward to reading your next Love/Hate on Thursday.

TMR: Yeah, exactly! It's totally your own … wait. That's an unbelievably gracious note and I'd have been mad at me for much longer than five seconds. Hmmm. Not going how I expected.

Matthew Whittington (Tacoma, Wash.): So Berry, I'm sure you are getting killed over Doug Martin (and rightfully so) …
TMR: There it is. OK, buddy, what have you got to say, smart guy?

Continued … But in fairness I will say I haven't seen anyone give you credit for Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Jermaine Gresham, or the Chargers D. For the loves. And you were right on virtually all your other positional "hates." (Especially Rudolph). Guess on that Martin call, you just overthought it a bit huh? I've only recently started paying attention to the comments sections of the articles posted, and you are getting lambasted on there today by all the Monday morning quarterbacks. I just wanted to send you acknowledgement and affirmation on how much you got right. Good luck next week sir!

: What the … ?

Jim Shields (Elsmere, Ky.): Matthew, thank you for your advice on drafting Doug Martin a round or two early. I did so and just received huge points two straight weeks. Love the advice and podcast … Take care and happy fantasy season.

TMR: Errr … Well, I … um … I mean … well … uh … you're welcome?

Gary Smith (wherever the Air Force sends me): This isn't an I told you so, but a thank you. You have been saying just go with your gut, etc., for the past few weeks, which I usually do anyway. This week you said you didn't like Doug Martin and my gut said to play him anyway. Just go with your gut -- so I did. Thanks for the fun articles, I've read you every week for a few years now. All my friends come to me for fantasy football advice because I tend to do pretty well in my leagues, I always tell 'em to go read what you say because, while I don't always agree with you, you have sound logic and are a fun read. I know you get tons of letters and mail from all over with stories about peoples teams, I just wanted to send a note and say that I appreciate the time and passion you put into fantasy football. Fantasy football is how I stay in touch with all of my closest buddies from college, we are all in the Air Force and most of us are pilots and thus literally scattered all over the globe. We love what we do, and fantasy football provides another way for us to stay in touch. Your passion and effort shows in your work and in your writing and from one guy who loves his job to another, I appreciate it. Keep up the great work Mr. Berry! Very Respectfully, Gary Smith.

TMR: Respectfully? Respectfully!?!? Dude, you risk your life serving and protecting our country. I write articles about a game about a game. How dare you! RESPECTFULLY??! I'm not out of order; you're out of order!! I refuse to take your respect, and in fact, I respect you! Yeah, that's right. I respect you and reject your respect of me. So there. How ya like them apples, Gary?

All right. Not great, but it's a start. Who's next?

DJ (San Marcos, Texas): I had the misfortune of playing against Doug Martin this week, and to make matters worse, my QB Tom Brady was on a bye. But thanks to your advice on Carson Palmer, I was able to make the key bye-week pickup that kept my winning streak alive. Thanks!

TMR: I have no idea what to do with this.

Brenna (Baltimore): I just wanted to thank you for your weekly articles. This is my first season of fantasy football and I have had more fun reading your stuff and playing every week. As a girl it was a little intimidating entering a male-dominated league but I found your articles extremely helpful and it gave me the confidence to go out on a limb sometimes with my starters. Anyways, thanks a bunch!!

TMR: I give up.

Time now for this week's Love/Hate. As always, please use my weekly rankings, updated throughout the week. Except for you, "Rick." You've been cursed. With a shoutout to John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information for all his help, here we go.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 10[/h]
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: At home in front of a Monday night crowd against a defense that is 30th in total points allowed with an offensive coordinator who wants to run up the score on his former team. It's like a fantasy lunar eclipse. Doesn't come along often but when it does, you stop what you're doing and watch it unfold with your kids.

Matthew Stafford, Lions: Gets back to being Matthew Stafford this week against a Vikings defense that has given up six touchdowns in the past two games to Russell Wilson and Josh Freeman. He threw for 319 against them in Week 4 as well and played well last week (completing 67 percent of his passes).

Carson Palmer, Raiders: Well, I loved him all season so I'm certainly still on after last week. He's averaging just over 41 pass attempts a game, that's fourth-most in the NFL. And that's when they had some semblance of a run game. He's gonna turn it over once or twice here but the Ravens defense isn't what it used to be (22nd against the pass) and generally speaking, you throw that much against a middle-of-the-road defense, fantasy goodness happens.

If you're desperate: When Ryan Fitzpatrick faced the Patriots earlier this year, he threw for 350 yards and four scores. Well, and four picks, but who's nitpicking? It won't be pretty but at the end of the day he'll have solid numbers. With apologies to Chris Berman, nobody circles the junk time like Ryan Fitzpatrick. … Ryan Tannehill is the answer to this trivia question; considering no quarterback facing the Titans this year has ever scored fewer than 15 points, who faces them this week? … And making a triumphant return to the "if you're desperate" section is Russell Wilson, who has at least two touchdowns in three of his last four and the one game he didn't was against the 49ers. Not a great matchup, but not terrible either, and I like that they are at home and Sidney Rice is healthy.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 10[/h]Michael Vick, Eagles: His rushing will keep his numbers respectable, but that offensive line is in a shambles (seven sacks allowed to the Saints last week), so I expect Vick to spend a lot of the day having close personal interactions with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. For all the issues the Cowboys have (their run game, their late-game performance, their insecurity, the fact they work too much and have trouble expressing their emotions, etc.), the pass defense isn't one of them, as the secondary allows the fifth-fewest amount of passing yards per game this year.

Jay Cutler, Bears: Can't I just say that he faces the Texans? Has a league-worst 14 sacks and sixth-worst 52.4 completion percentage when facing at least five pass rushers? And Houston has the most aggressive defense in the league, sending five or more pass rushers on 44.9 percent of dropbacks?
Matt Schaub, Texans: It's not like playing the Bears is a cakewalk.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Not unless your league gives points for handoffs. Even Cam Cameron can't ignore the game film of what Doug Martin just did to the Ravens' next opponent.

[h=3]Running Backs I love in Week 10[/h]
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: I include him only because I want to share this stat, which I think is unbelievable: He has 515 yards after contact this year. If you took just his yards after contact, he'd be 19th in the NFL among running backs in total rushing yards. Still less than a year removed from ACL surgery. Ka-RAZY.

Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Insert running back playing Tennessee here.

Steven Ridley, Patriots: You know what's fun? Going Next Level. Seriously. Try it with me here. The Bills have allowed 5.6 yards per rush between the tackles this season, the highest rate in the NFL. And in Week 4 against the Bills, the Patriots had 33 rushes between the tackles, gaining 200 yards (6.1 yards per rush) and scoring twice. Ridley had 106 yards and two scores last time they played.

Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Remember when the Vikings run defense used to be good?

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: So here's another very reasonable email I got that I didn't include in the intro.

Jeff (El Dorado Hills, Calif.): Well, Berry, I get your Martin take last weekend. Now that he has erupted in Clinton Portis rookie fashion, do you think he and Freeman and his receivers are gold this second half? I guess what I'm asking is, can the Buccaneers be a fantasy powerhouse the remainder of the season? BTW: I benched Martin this weekend based on your analysis. I read Chris (Harris)'s also. I started Ryan Mathews and Alfred Morris over him. However, my opponent's AP, Brandon Marshall and San Diego Chargers D did so much damage, I still would have lost. Easier pill to swallow. I still believe in your analysis.
Thanks, Jeff. I appreciate that. So here's my take on Martin the rest of the year: Yes, he's clearly a No. 1 running back. But I'd still rather have guys like Arian Foster, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, and I think he's neck and neck with guys like LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris.

He has benefited from a good schedule: Martin's average opponent this season has allowed 4.4 yards per rush, which would rank eighth-worst in the league as its own team. In fact, he has faced three of the seven worst teams in the league in yards per rush, and the best team he's faced statistically so far has been Dallas, which ranks 12th in the league with 4.1 yards allowed per rush. Martin had 19 rushes for 53 yards against the Cowboys, and that was with Carl Nicks.

So Sunday will be a true test: The Chargers defense is fifth-best in the NFL, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush and only 1.3 yards after contact per rush. Having said all that … he is in the love section because I obviously believe in his talent (hey, I even wrote that last week), and history is on his side. I asked the great Tristan H. Cockroft, who keeps a meticulous database of all this kind of stuff, to look up what running backs did the week after they had an insane game (47 fantasy points or more). See the chart below; not one ever had fewer than 17 points in their next game.
[h=3]Follow-up To Best Running Back Fantasy Performances[/h]

Player	Big Performance	Follow-up week	Season totals
Name	Team	Year	Wk	FPTS	Wk	FPTS	G	FPTS	Pos. Rk
Shaun Alexander	Sea	2002	4	52	6	17	16	251	6
Mike Anderson	Den	2000	14	49	15	25	14	240	4
Corey Dillon	Cin	1997	15	51	16	18	16	185	7
Marshall Faulk	StL	2002	7	47	9	28	14	188	15
Jerome Harrison	Cle	2009	15	47	16	18	14	137	23
Priest Holmes	KC	2002	12	48	13	28	14	361	1
Clinton Portis	Den	2003	14	54	15	25	13	262	5
Fred Taylor	Jac	2000	12	48	13	18	13	233	5

Marcel Reece, Raiders: You already know I think they are going to throw it a ton. I expect Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson to miss this game, and Oakland doesn't trust Taiwan Jones yet. Reece is the superior pass blocker and pass catcher, so in a game in which they're throwing it at least 40 times, Reece stands to have a very nice flex-worthy day as a pass catcher, throwing in the occasional run.

If you're desperate: I am assuming Donald Brown does not play Thursday night, making Vick Ballard a top-20 play against Jacksonville's 27th-ranked run defense. … All the bad Buffalo Bills run defense stats apply to Shane Vereen as well, especially since Brandon Bolden is banged up. Could see the Ridley scraps being more than enough for Vereen to be flex-worthy. … Joique Bell continues to get work (27 touches the last two weeks) and the Vikings have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing running backs in just the past four games. …The whole "getting a decent amount of work and has a good matchup" thing also applies to Daniel Thomas this week. … Keep an eye on Lance Dunbar this weekend against Philly. Decent matchup, and that job is ripe for the taking until DeMarco Murray comes back.

[h=3]Running Backs I hate in Week 10[/h]
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Top-10 talent that I have outside my top 10 and frankly, I still might be too high on him. Maybe by putting him in here I can reverse-jinx him. So, you know about the lack of touches. But even when he's touching the ball, here's a concern: He has just 17 yards after contact (1.0 yards after contact per rush) the past two games. In fact, his 2.5 yards per rush average is the worst of any Chiefs rusher, including Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. And over the past four weeks, the Steelers are fourth-best in the NFL with a 3.7 yards per rush-allowed average. Oh, and I'm pretty sure the Chiefs are going to be down in this game, and you know how they like to bail on their run game. My guess is you don't have better options to start than him, but lower your expectations even lower, if you can.

Fred Jackson, Bills: Does not have the big-play ability that C.J. Spiller has, and New England has allowed just 3.5 yards per rush, secon- best in the league. In fact, they've allowed just one rush of at least 20 yards this year. You're hoping for yards in the receiving game here and I don't see him getting enough of them to warrant being anything other than a low-end flex.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Plays the 49ers. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: So much for that whole "committing to one guy" thing. Sigh.

Shonn Green, Jets: Not on the road at Seattle. I don't care how good he's looked or how human Seattle has looked. Not feeling it.

[h=3]Wide Receivers I love in Week 10

Wes Welker, Patriots: Say this for the Bills: they find a bunch of different ways to be bad. Did you know they have allowed a 78.7 completion percentage on passes targeting receivers lined up in the slot, the highest of any defense in the league? And, of course, Welker is third in the NFL in targets from the slot.

Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: Think he's motivated against his former team? You know, the one he sat out almost a whole season with? The one he kept trying to leave? Yeah, me too.
Danny Amendola, Rams: Welcome back, Danny. More slot receiver stats: The 49ers defense has allowed 39 receptions to slot receivers this season; that's tied for second-most in the NFL. And even though Amendola has only played five games this year, he's tied for sixth with 35 targets out of the slot.

Brian Hartline, Dolphins: Only five teams have allowed more 20-plus yard completions than the Tennessee Titans. Coming off a 100-yard game and leading the Dolphins in targets, Hartline is a legit fantasy starter this week.

If you're desperate: The Colts secondary is really banged up, so in what should be a decently high-scoring game, it should be another productive week for Cecil Shorts. … Three scores in four games for Sidney Rice who, like Russell Wilson, had just the one bad game versus San Francisco. … With Antonio Brown out, I like Emmanuel Sanders more than Jerricho Cotchery in the run-up-the-score-against-KC sweepstakes. … If you just need something this week, there may not be a safer bet for 40 to 50 yards this week than Davone Bess against the Titans.

[/h][h=3]Wide Receivers I hate in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Steve Smith, Panthers: Champ Bailey continues to play like a shut-down corner this year (except against A.J. Green, but then again, Smith is no A.J. Green), and Cam has really struggled when playing good teams. In a great matchup last week, Smith finally scored his first touchdown of the year but still had only 41 yards. Hard to count on another score here.

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles: Single-digit fantasy points in three of the last four, he's just not connecting with Vick these days and as I said in the Vick post, I feel the passing game is under duress all game, making Maclin a flex play at best this week.

[/h][h=3]Tight Ends I love in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Heath Miller, Steelers: See Roethlisberger, Ben.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: The Broncos give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, Olsen is second on the team in targets and Steve Smith is gonna have Champ Bailey all up in his bid-ness.

Brandon Myers, Raiders: So there are 33 tight ends with at least 25 targets this season, right? And no one has caught a higher percentage of his targets than Brandon Myers (79.6 percent). He has 39 catches, which ranks fifth in the league. I wouldn't count on the touchdowns from last week repeating but in a game where I don't expect a ton of running and lots of passing, Myers should continue to see enough targets to make him a high-end TE2/low-end TE1. The Ravens, incidentally, have allowed 21 receptions and 228 yards to opposing tight ends in their past three games.

Dwayne Allen, Colts: More fun with completion percentage: 22 tight ends have had at least 10 targets in the past three weeks. Dwayne Allen leads them with an 84.6 completion percentage (11 catches on 13 targets). Ten receptions for 131 yards in the past two games, Coby Fleener is out, and only Reggie Wayne has more targets inside an opponents' 10-yard line.

If you're desperate: Anthony Fasano plays for Miami, which, you may have heard, faces the Titans. … Joel Dreessen now has four touchdowns in his past six games, and the Panthers allow the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

[/h][h=3]Tight Ends I hate in Week 10

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: I realize he had a good game against the Vikings last time out and that their defense is reeling, but with less than 40 yards in three of the past four games and only one touchdown on the year, it seems like, due to the emergence of Mikel Leshoure and Bell, they no longer use dump-offs to Pettigrew as their "run game" this year. He's a TE2 for me with limited upside.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: This is me, peering over the cliff, trying to figure why Kyle fell off it. The touchdowns were always somewhat flukey but they just seem to ignore him in the middle of the field, which was the opposite of where it seemed like it was heading. Anyway, in the meantime, I'll just reach into the fridge to pour myself a glass of milk and … hey, there he is! Hi, Kyle!

Jared Cook, Titans: The Dolphins have yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end this season.

Jermichael Finley, Packers: Hey Berry, you say, Finley's on a bye this week. To which I say: How can you tell?

[/h][h=3]Defenses I love in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST: Until further notice, you are starting your defense against the Chiefs.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST: Eagles allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and the Philly offensive line, which has already struggled to protect Vick, is gonna be without Todd Herremans. The Cowboys available in over 60 percent of leagues.

Miami Dolphins D/ST: It's not just the Titans defense that is bad! Their offense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Miami has been inconsistent as a fantasy defense this year but I like them at home this week, especially since it looks like Jake Locker will start.

If you're desperate: The Detroit Lions have averaged more than seven points a game since their bye week and face a struggling Christian Ponder. … Never a bad bet to go against Philip Rivers and Norv Turner, so the Bucs at home should be decent.

[/h][h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 10[/h][h=3]
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST: Can they fire Juan Castillo again?

San Diego Chargers D/ST: Muscle Hamster this! Don't get sucked in by last week's dominating performance. The Bolts are better than they get credit for, but that was more a result of Kansas City's ineptitude. As well as Tampa is playing on offense these days, I don't see a big day here.

[/h]

HacheMan · Nov 11, 2012

Sneaky fantasy pickups entering Week 10

Eric Karabell

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin remains unlikely to suit up for this week's game against the Detroit Lions because of a sprained ankle, which is a shame. Harvin is the No. 5 wide receiver in standard scoring this season, and his loss will be felt in real life and fantasy. Quick, name the No. 2 wide receiver for Christian Ponder this season: It's Michael Jenkins.
If Harvin sits this week, or the injury lingers into December, who would step up? Jerome Simpson is the obvious answer, and while I've talked and written positively about him, he's got his own issues. Then there's veteran Devin Aromashodu and rookie Jarius Wright, the latter likely to debut this week. It's not a particularly deep crew, but here in the weekly Sneaky Pickups blog entry, we're definitely digging deep and looking not at this weekend but for future weeks. Jarius Wright, a fourth-round pick from Arkansas, is digging deep.
If Harvin sits, I'd certainly become interested in Simpson for Sunday, and I want to see how Wright performs, or if he's presented opportunity to do so. In the meantime, let's focus on other teams and their wide receiver depth behind noted fantasy stars, pointing out how top options might go away and aiming to find other deep-league choices that really could matter.
<offer></offer>
New York Giants: Colleague KC Joyner wrote an interesting story about Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, and I certainly agree with his assessment. (As I generally do; read KC's work!) If you own those Giants, be patient. But the universally owned Nicks has struggled with knee issues and produced little since Week 2, so even a more favorable schedule and better quarterback play might not be enough. Domenik Hixon is available in more than 80 percent of leagues, rookie Rueben Randle in nearly 70 percent. I like New York's schedule the rest of the way, so deep leaguers should consider Nicks' colleagues, even for standard-format stashing.

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson looked healthy and productive in Week 9, but he hasn't been either of those things consistently for the past year-plus, and further, his team is clearly playoff-bound and could clinch the AFC South and perhaps the AFC well before Week 17. That's nothing against Andrew Luck and the upstart Indianapolis Colts, of course. Unlike the Giants, whose Nos. 3 and 4 wide receiver options are clearly on radar screens, Houston's Kevin Walter is owned in only 2.1 percent of leagues, and Keshawn Martin and Lestar Jean have eight receptions combined. I'd never use Walter against the Chicago Bears, but later in the year against the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots and Colts, if Johnson is compromised, the case can be made.
Detroit Lions: Calvin Johnson has openly discussed how nerve damage has affected his play, and it wouldn't be stunning if he was shut down early if the 4-4 Lions fall out of contention. Enigmatic Titus Young is owned in two-thirds of ESPN standard leagues, but Ryan Broyles and Mike Thomas are nearly universally available. Young is dealing with knee issues as well, so seeking out Detroit's depth seems wise. Thomas wasn't used in Week 9, as he learns the Detroit offense after the trade from Jacksonville, but he will be worked into relevance out of the slot.
Kansas City Chiefs: We've discussed the running back situation in St. Louis numerous times, how Steven Jackson can walk after the season and a bad team could easily look at younger options, as the Rams clearly have (Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead). Well, Dwayne Bowe wasn't traded, but his future could be elsewhere, so why wouldn't the Chiefs see what Jon Baldwin and Dexter McCluster could do together? The generally underused McCluster gets rushing chances as well, and has 23 targets his past three games, though he hasn't made a play from scrimmage of longer than 21 yards all year. After the Pittsburgh game this week, that should change.
Other wide receivers: The Arizona Cardinals have lost five in a row, so perhaps first-round pick Michael Floyd starts getting looks over Andre Roberts. It'd sure be nice if the Cardinals had better quarterback play, though. ... In Philadelphia, Michael Vick doesn't have enough time to throw deep, making a short-yardage guy like Jason Avant interesting. Plus, should Damaris Johnson get a chance, watch him. ... Joe Morgan has only three catches all year for New Orleans, but two are touchdowns. The Saints throw a ton. ... Danario Alexander caught his first passes of the season last week for San Diego, and it's not like Robert Meachem or Eddie Royal has done much. ... In Cincinnati, there's nothing wrong with A.J. Green, but Mohamed Sanu is a deep-league name to watch moving ahead, rather than the PPR-oriented Andrew Hawkins.
Enjoy your weekend and best of luck in Week 10 and beyond!

HacheMan · Nov 13, 2012

Free-agent finds for Week 11

Week 11 byes: Giants, Seahawks, Titans, Vikings.

Standard ESPN league finds

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Atlanta Falcons (owned in 11.4 percent of ESPN.com leagues). This week's waiver crop isn't strong at the top, but it's relatively deep. Rodgers made this column after Week 3 because Michael Turner looked cooked; that's all the more true after Week 10. Turner had three shots from the New Orleans Saints' 1 on Sunday and got absolutely no push. Versus a defense that had been allowing 176.5 rush yards per game, the "Burner" managed 15 yards on 13 carries. Obviously it won't always be so terrible, and at 8-1 the Falcons aren't likely to be considering massive lineup changes. But Rodgers was strong producing 62 yards on seven touches Sunday. I'm skeptical Rodgers could be a real chains-mover, but his quickness has improved in his second pro season and the sooner Atlanta realizes who its most dangerous RB is, the better. At the very least, Rodgers is a stash, and he could work his way into flex consideration in the weeks ahead.

Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints (2.5 percent). I had Ivory in the "deep" portion of this list last week, and he responded with 85 yards on eight touches versus the Falcons. Of course, 56 of those came on his highlight-reel TD run during which he ran through the entire Atlanta defense. In truth, the best New Orleans RB on the field Sunday was Mark Ingram (58.0 percent owned), who's finally displaying the speed/power combo folks believed he had coming out of college. Ivory is a violent runner who figures to be injury-prone the more work he gets, but both he and Ingram looked to be ahead of Pierre Thomas on the Week 10 depth chart. This could all be moot if Darren Sproles returns to face the Oakland Raiders this week, and regardless it's impossible to envision any of these guys assuming enough of the workload to become more than flex players. Still, as the least-owned player in the bunch, Ivory should be added, in case I'm wrong about his usage.

Danario Alexander, WR, San Diego Chargers (0.1 percent). Alexander was also on the "deep" list last week and in the first minute of Week 10 he produced an 80-yard TD on a badly missed tackle by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. He didn't do much thereafter -- four catches for 54 yards -- but he's obviously supplanted super-bust Robert Meachem in the Chargers lineup. DX has been a scout's favorite for a couple of years because of his size (6-foot-5, 217 pounds) and speed (4.5 40), but he's been a knee injury waiting to happen dating back to his collegiate days. Any St. Louis Rams fan (Alexander's previous team) knows this is a player who'll tease you with great flashes and then miss a month. But until knee problems return, DX should probably be owned in most leagues. He has clear No. 1 WR potential in San Diego's offense, and under a best-case scenario could wind up a top-30 fantasy receiver.

Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (0.5 percent). Sorry, I'm not buying it. I know Michael Vick is persona non grata in Philly and in fantasy right now, but if a player with his mobility and experience can't find relief behind this leaky offensive line, what makes us believe an unheralded rookie can do so? Subbing for a concussed Vick on Sunday, Foles did complete a 44-yard TD to Jeremy Maclin on a ridiculously blown coverage, and he produced 219 passing yards in three quarters of play. But his accuracy was poor and he probably should've accrued three or four turnovers; as it was, he threw a pick-six to Brandon Carr early in the fourth quarter then sealed the loss by fumbling near his own goal line late. We all know the Eagles have elite offensive weaponry, and maybe with a full week of preparation and facing a poor Washington Redskins secondary, Foles can muster some fantasy magic. Certainly, the other QBs I'll discuss in this column don't have his upside. But I can't imagine I'm going to have this kid inside my top 15 signal callers this week. Manage your expectations. If you're looking for a substitute QB, first make sure that Ryan Fitzpatrick (54.9 percent owned) and Carson Palmer (66.8 percent owned) aren't available. Only then should you consider Foles or any of the other QBs recommended in this column.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (17.2 percent). Though he's six-plus inches shorter than Foles, Wilson will be a better bet as a late-season emergency fantasy fill-in. We talked about him last week on the Fantasy Underground podcast, and Wilson played another viable fantasy game Sunday in a tough matchup against the New York Jets. His problem will continue to be volume: Wilson threw just 19 passes in Week 10. But he's tossed multiple TDs in three straight games, something Eli Manning can only wistfully recall. Of course, Seattle is off in Week 11, so Wilson can't immediately help you amid this week's QB carnage. Still, folks who are rostering guys like Matt Cassel (18.5 percent), Mark Sanchez (17.2 percent) or Blaine Gabbert (4.5 percent) should certainly make this switch.

Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers (45.1 percent). Olsen has been a trendy sleeper who has Rip-Van-Winkled himself into obscurity over the past couple of seasons, failing to parlay Carolina's lack of wideouts opposite Steve Smith into consistent production. Sunday's nine-catch, 102-yard, two-TD effort is the best game of Olsen's career but cold comfort for fantasy owners who likely couldn't stomach starting him after four straight games under 50 yards receiving. Still, Cam Newton really doesn't have reliable weapons outside of Smith, so the logic that has dictated Olsen's fantasy hype still holds. Maybe he's turned a corner. He gets to face a Bucs D, whose linebackers aren't great, in Week 11. Hopefully he can produce back-to-back strong outings.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense (14.4 percent). It's your weekly "Chase the Chiefs" streaming defense play, as the Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Cassel resisted the temptation to turn the ball over Monday night until his head-clutching bad interception in overtime, but let's not praise him too highly. He went 11-of-26 for 154 yards and completed five passes to wideouts. He's awful. The Bengals just did a good job versus the New York Giants offense Sunday, and have a respectable 28 sacks through nine games. For the final week of byes, you could do much worse than this unit.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers (31.3 percent); Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders (12.2 percent); James Starks, RB, Packers (5.7 percent); Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals (47.5 percent); LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB, Cardinals (24.4 percent); Danny Amendola, WR, Rams (49.1 percent); Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (15.7 percent); Donnie Avery, WR, Colts (11.1 percent); Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers (6.3 percent); Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets (42.7 percent); Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (16.1 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (34.1 percent); Chris Givens, WR, Rams (2.4 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (2.5 percent); Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (32.9 percent); Scott Chandler, TE, Bills (49.1 percent); Brandon Myers, TE, Raiders (17.8 percent).

[h=3]Deeper league finds[/h]
Laurent Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (26.4 percent). Robinson was everywhere early Thursday night, seeing seven targets in the game's first 19 minutes. He wound up with 15 looks and nine grabs for 77 yards with a lost fumble. The Jags are held hostage by Gabbert's awful play, but at least they appear to have disavowed themselves of the idea that No. 5 overall pick Justin Blackmon is ready for prime time. Robinson and Cecil Shorts are the starters now, and in high-volume games like Week 10 against the Indianapolis Colts, that counts for something.

Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (6.8 percent). Locker returned from his twice-separated non-throwing shoulder to lead a rout of the Miami Dolphins in which he completed only nine of 21 attempts (he sat in the fourth quarter), but he showed his strong wheels again by racking up 36 yards on four carries. Locker's raw ability is miles ahead of Matt Hasselbeck's, and at least gives the Tennessee receiving corps some reason for faint optimism. Of course, the Titans are on bye in Week 11.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (0.6 percent). Owners in two-QB leagues won't be picking up Kaepernick for his arm. He still looked raw as a thrower in relief of a concussed Alex Smith last week, misreading coverages and displaying inconsistent accuracy. But as a runner he's a tough player: a big kid (6-4 and 230 pounds) with long strides and decisive moves. As of this writing, there was no indication of whether Smith would be able to play Monday night against the Bears, and frankly that's not a matchup you want for either of these Niners QBs. But if you're utterly desperate, you can hope that Kaepernick could salvage his fantasy night with some plays with his legs.

Byron Leftwich, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (0.1 percent). Ben Roethlisberger suffered a game-ending throwing-shoulder injury Monday night; as of this writing, the severity was unknown, but early word is that it doesn't look great. Leftwich went 7-of-14 for 73 yards in about a half of play and didn't make any mistakes, but an already conservative Steelers attack practically turtled after Big Ben's departure. Leftwich made a couple of stick throws late when he had to, but with unbelievably limited mobility and variable accuracy, he doesn't figure to make many plays if Roethlisberger can't go Sunday night in a big-time rivalry game against the Baltimore Ravens. You'd have to be pretty desperate to add him.

Jason Campbell, QB, Chicago Bears (0.3 percent). Speaking of desperate! Jay Cutler suffered a concussion Sunday and Campbell went 11-of-19 for 94 yards in relief, but even those uninspiring numbers don't explain how pedestrian Campbell looked. True, it was a rainy, windy night in Chicago, but Campbell's accuracy was just awful. Put it this way: If Cutler can't play in Week 11 against the 49ers and I had to pick between Kaepernick and Campbell as an emergency fantasy player? I'd take Kaepernick every time.

Lance Dunbar, RB, Dallas Cowboys (0.1 percent). Phillip Tanner is no longer Felix Jones' backup; that honor goes to Dunbar, an undrafted rookie out of the University of North Texas. DeMarco Murray still doesn't seem likely to suit up in Week 11 because of his injured foot, and while Jones played his best game of '12 against the Eagles on Sunday, he's always one carry away from the trainer's table. Dunbar has 14 touches the past two weeks combined, while Tanner has one.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams (39.6 percent); Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins (13.4 percent); Tim Tebow, QB, Jets (10.2 percent); Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (9.5 percent); Joique Bell, RB, Lions (10.5 percent); Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots (27.0 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (12.1 percent); Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos (1.0 percent); Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders (5.0 percent); Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks (6.9 percent); Donald Jones, WR, Bills (1.7 percent); Stephen Hill, WR, Jets (11.3 percent); T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts (5.5 percent); Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (35.6 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals (13.5); Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals (2.5 percent); Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions (1.7 percent); Dexter McCluster, WR/RB, Chiefs (7.3 percent); Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears (6.1 percent); Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens (30.3 percent); Logan Paulsen, TE, Redskins (0.4 percent).

HacheMan · Nov 13, 2012

2012 ranks: CJ2K back among top 10 RBs

Eric Karabell

I'm back with the end-of-season rankings for another week. Here's some good news for those of you who are tired of the bye weeks: This is the last one!

That's right, after the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans take Week 11 off, fantasy owners struggling to fill active lineups can't use bye weeks as an excuse any longer. The 2012 ranks, updated every Tuesday, will remain for at least a few more weeks, but please note that the trade deadline in ESPN standard leagues is next Wednesday (Nov. 21).

Reminder: The ESPN staff rankings for Week 11 will be published Wednesday and updated as the week continues. Good luck in your playoff push!

Quick click by position, for easy reference:
Top 40 Quarterbacks | Top 60 Running Backs | Top 60 Wide Receivers
Top 30 Tight Ends | Top 32 Defense/Special Teams | Top 100 Overall

[h=3]Top 40 Quarterbacks[/h]

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>

<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	1
2	Drew Brees	NO	2
3	Tom Brady	NE	3
4	Peyton Manning	Den	4
5	Matt Ryan	Atl	5
6	Andrew Luck	Ind	7
7	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	6
8	Matthew Stafford	Det	10
9	Josh Freeman	TB	11
10	Eli Manning	NYG	9
11	Cam Newton	Car	12
12	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	8
13	Tony Romo	Dal	13
14	Philip Rivers	SD	15
15	Carson Palmer	Oak	16
16	Matt Schaub	Hou	18
17	Andy Dalton	Cin	20
18	Joe Flacco	Bal	19
19	Jay Cutler	Chi	17
20	Michael Vick	Phi	14
21	Christian Ponder	Min	21
22	Sam Bradford	StL	26
23	Russell Wilson	Sea	28
24	Alex Smith	SF	23
25	Brandon Weeden	Cle	22
26	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	24
27	Ryan Tannehill	Mia	25
28	Jake Locker	Ten	33
29	Blaine Gabbert	Jac	29
30	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	27
31	John Skelton	Ari	31
32	Byron Leftwich	Pit	NR
33	Nick Foles	Phi	35
34	Matt Cassel	KC	32
35	Colin Kaepernick	SF	37
36	Jason Campbell	Chi	NR
37	Tim Tebow	NYJ	34
38	Matt Hasselbeck	Ten	30
39	Matt Moore	Mia	36
40	Chad Henne	Jac	NR

Giants quarterback Eli Manning had another terrible outing Sunday, giving him an underwhelming total of 10 fantasy points over his past three games. That not only kills fantasy teams, but it's hard to fathom as well. There were 19 quarterbacks who topped 10 fantasy points in Week 10 alone. So how far should Manning drop in the rankings? After all, he's proven and has terrific weapons, and the upcoming schedule looks pretty good. A rejuvenated Matthew Stafford zooms past him, and Josh Freeman squeaks past, though it's close. I couldn't pull the trigger on Cam Newton, Tony Romo or anyone else sliding by just yet. As for Ben Roethlisberger, it appears he could miss time due to the shoulder injury he suffered Monday night, so he drops a bit.

Other than Roethlisberger dropping out and Manning moving down, the top 10 didn't change much. Perhaps it's unfair to alter the rookie quarterback hierarchy since Robert Griffin III was on a bye week, but Andrew Luck is clearly special as well, and his two touchdown runs in Week 10 brought him to within one of Griffin. Which fellow would you take as a passer? That's obvious, and over the past three weeks, Luck has been better overall. No other rookie quarterback makes the top 20, though Russell Wilson of the Seahawks is getting close.

Meanwhile, three quarterbacks ranked in the teens a week ago suffered concussions Sunday. Michael Vick shouldn't be dropped yet, but don't count on him suiting up for the beleaguered Philadelphia Eagles anytime soon. Nick Foles shouldn't be relied upon behind his less-than-stellar offensive line, as proved by his rank between John Skelton and Matt Cassel. As for Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers and Jay Cutler of the Chicago Bears, their drop isn't as steep. If both were to miss time, the backup to choose is clearly the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick, who rushed for his third touchdown of the season Sunday. Jason Campbell of Chicago isn't as intriguing.

[h=3]Top 60 Running Backs[/h]
<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>

<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	1
2	Adrian Peterson	Min	2
3	Ray Rice	Bal	3
4	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	4
5	LeSean McCoy	Phi	5
6	Frank Gore	SF	6
7	Doug Martin	TB	8
8	Alfred Morris	Wsh	9
9	Chris Johnson	Ten	14
10	Trent Richardson	Cle	10
11	Stevan Ridley	NE	13
12	Matt Forte	Chi	7
13	Ryan Mathews	SD	11
14	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	12
15	Jamaal Charles	KC	15
16	C.J. Spiller	Buf	18
17	Willis McGahee	Den	17
18	Mikel Leshoure	Det	19
19	Steven Jackson	StL	25
20	Reggie Bush	Mia	20
21	Michael Turner	Atl	16
22	Fred Jackson	Buf	24
23	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	23
24	Darren McFadden	Oak	21
25	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	22
26	Shonn Greene	NYJ	26
27	Rashad Jennings	Jac	27
28	Darren Sproles	NO	28
29	Donald Brown	Ind	30
30	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	31
31	Jonathan Stewart	Car	32
32	Pierre Thomas	NO	29
33	Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	33
34	LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	34
35	Andre Brown	NYG	43
36	DeMarco Murray	Dal	36
37	Felix Jones	Dal	46
38	Vick Ballard	Ind	38
39	Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	44
40	Isaac Redman	Pit	39
41	Alex Green	GB	35
42	Daryl Richardson	StL	37
43	DeAngelo Williams	Car	40
44	James Starks	GB	41
45	Kendall Hunter	SF	42
46	Shane Vereen	NE	45
47	Daniel Thomas	Mia	48
48	Danny Woodhead	NE	51
49	Michael Bush	Chi	47
50	Chris Ivory	NO	60
51	Ben Tate	Hou	49
52	Joique Bell	Det	50
53	Mark Ingram	NO	55
54	Marcel Reece	Oak	NR
55	Mike Goodson	Oak	52
56	Ronnie Hillman	Den	54
57	Shaun Draughn	KC	56
58	Taiwan Jones	Oak	57
59	Ronnie Brown	SD	58
60	Peyton Hillis	KC	59

A month ago, when Titans running back Chris Johnson torched the Buffalo Bills for 195 rushing yards and 31 fantasy points, it seemed the only impediment to him being reliable and carrying fantasy owners was his pending schedule. Well, Johnson averaged 134 rushing yards in games against the stingy Bears and Miami Dolphins (yes, the 80-yard touchdown run certainly counts) and scored in each game. I wouldn't bet against him having another solid game versus a tough Houston Texans defense in Week 13; Johnson ran for 141 yards against that unit in Week 4. Welcome back to the top 10 and a well-deserved bye week, CJ2K.

Otherwise, the top 10 didn't change much. The Bears' Matt Forte was perhaps ranked too high last week, and he drops out of the top 10 after being stymied by the Texans. One concern is the potential loss of quarterback Jay Cutler (concussion). There's ample reason to trust three rookies (Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson) over Forte, and Stevan Ridley continues to rise. Sure, Danny Woodhead scored a few times Sunday, but there's no concern about Ridley losing significant touches.

As for the back end of the RB2 section, C.J. Spiller moves up a few spots, even though colleague Fred Jackson had the bigger fantasy game Sunday. Jackson isn't likely to play in Week 11 due to a concussion, and Spiller, who is averaging more than seven rushing yards per carry, should succeed. We don't know if Jackson will miss more than a week, so keep him owned.

As for others moving up, let's focus on Steven Jackson, Andre Brown and Felix Jones. Jackson comes off his best game of a disappointing season, topping 100 rushing yards against the 49ers. It doesn't mean the timeshare with rookie Daryl Richardson won't crop up again, but Jackson re-enters the top 20. The Giants' Brown has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games. Ahmad Bradshaw always seems physically compromised in some way, but expect him to play in the Giants' next game (Week 12 versus Green Bay). Brown just keeps looking fantasy-relevant. In Dallas, who knows when DeMarco Murray returns, if at all? Jones isn't great, but he did run well Sunday in Philly, and he's still upright.

Michael Turner was terrible against the New Orleans Saints, burning many fantasy owners, and he leaves the top 20, perhaps for good. Just don't be surprised by the occasional double-digit outing from him. If Jacquizz Rodgers would just play better, Turner's carries would really get cut into. Pierre Thomas also drops a few spots, mainly because the touches that figured to go his way when Darren Sproles hurt his hand have clearly not done so. Chris Ivory, on the other hand, looks terrific in limited duty. Sproles remains the top Saints running back in the rankings, but Ivory has become worth owning too.

[h=3]Top 60 Wide Receivers[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	A.J. Green	Cin	1
2	Brandon Marshall	Chi	2
3	Calvin Johnson	Det	4
4	Roddy White	Atl	6
5	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	5
6	Demaryius Thomas	Den	8
7	Julio Jones	Atl	7
8	Victor Cruz	NYG	3
9	Marques Colston	NO	10
10	Wes Welker	NE	11
11	Reggie Wayne	Ind	12
12	Vincent Jackson	TB	14
13	Percy Harvin	Min	9
14	Miles Austin	Dal	16
15	Mike Wallace	Pit	13
16	Eric Decker	Den	17
17	Dez Bryant	Dal	20
18	Denarius Moore	Oak	29
19	Andre Johnson	Hou	15
20	Randall Cobb	GB	18
21	James Jones	GB	19
22	Torrey Smith	Bal	23
23	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	26
24	Dwayne Bowe	KC	22
25	Steve Smith	Car	21
26	Jordy Nelson	GB	24
27	Mike Williams	TB	25
28	Steve Johnson	Buf	27
29	Lance Moore	NO	30
30	Danny Amendola	StL	52
31	Brandon Lloyd	NE	28
32	Sidney Rice	Sea	34
33	DeSean Jackson	Phi	32
34	Michael Crabtree	SF	36
35	Jeremy Maclin	Phi	33
36	Malcom Floyd	SD	38
37	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Oak	46
38	Cecil Shorts	Jac	45
39	Antonio Brown	Pit	31
40	Titus Young	Det	40
41	Kenny Britt	Ten	35
42	Andre Roberts	Ari	37
43	Brian Hartline	Mia	42
44	Brandon LaFell	Car	39
45	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	41
46	Josh Gordon	Cle	43
47	Golden Tate	Sea	49
48	Chris Givens	StL	44
49	Greg Jennings	GB	47
50	Danario Alexander	StL	NR
51	Anquan Boldin	Bal	48
52	Andrew Hawkins	Cin	50
53	Donnie Avery	Ind	51
54	Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	53
55	Laurent Robinson	Jac	NR
56	Donald Jones	Buf	NR
57	Kendall Wright	Ten	55
58	Brandon Stokley	Den	NR
59	Nate Washington	Ten	57
60	T.Y. Hilton	Ind	59

There's a bit of top-10 shuffling at this position, with Calvin Johnson moving up a spot, Demaryius Thomas gaining two spots and Victor Cruz of the Giants doing the salsa to the back end of the top 10. Johnson was in single digits in fantasy scoring four of the first seven games, but in the past two games, despite missing numerous practices due to his knee problem, he has caught 19 passes for 336 yards and a touchdown. Thomas faced a strong Carolina Panthers pass defense that entered Week 10 as the third toughest for opposing wide receivers and proceeded to exploit it for nine catches and 135 yards. As for Cruz, I can't ignore his lackluster numbers, whether they're his fault or not. Colleague Hakeem Nicks does move up a few spots, though.

Hey look, a pair of Raiders moves up as well! Denarius Moore has scored touchdowns in four of five games, and five of seven, and deservingly breaks into the top 20. Teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey registered his first double-digit fantasy game of the season Sunday and moves up quite a bit, though he is still a ways from the top 20. Enigmatic Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant moves up this week, though he'll likely continue to be inconsistent.

As discussed in Sunday night's Four Downs blog post, Danny Amendola of the St. Louis Rams is a top-30 wide receiver in the rankings, passing several bigger names, including Brandon Lloyd of the Patriots, Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers and both of Philadelphia's top options, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. In PPR formats, Amendola would be knocking on the top-20 door. Lloyd caught five passes for 45 yards against the Bills, not exactly a great day. The last time Lloyd had more than 45 yards was in Week 6, and he has yet to top 14 fantasy points in a game. Hope you weren't presuming he would be a WR2 this season. Brown is week to week because of an ankle injury.

As for others moving up, there's Sidney Rice, Cecil Shorts, Danario Alexander, Laurent Robinson and Donald Jones. Rice has touchdowns in four of five games and comes off his first multi-touchdown performance of the season. Shorts has been in double digits in fantasy scoring three of four weeks, and the Jaguars have a few friendly matchups on the horizon (Titans, Bills). His teammate Robinson hasn't reached double digits in any game, but at least he's healthy and saw 15 targets in Week 10. Alexander caught an 80-yard touchdown pass Sunday and ended up with 134 yards. You won't see his teammate/bust Robert Meachem in the rankings anymore. Buffalo's Jones has four touchdowns this season, the same number as his more-heralded teammate Steve Johnson.

Moving down the list is Kenny Britt, Jeremy Kerley, Mario Manningham and Rams Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson. Britt has posted three fantasy points in three of the past four games. Kerley accounted for five of the six wide receiver receptions from Jets quarterbacks Sunday but hasn't scored since Week 3. Manningham leaves the rankings, as he last topped 20 receiving yards in Week 6 and Michael Crabtree is asserting himself more. And Amendola is back for St. Louis, Givens was inactive Sunday for violating a team rule, and Gibson last scored in Week 2.

[h=3]Top 30 Tight Ends[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Rob Gronkowski	NE	1
2	Jimmy Graham	NO	2
3	Jason Witten	Dal	3
4	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	4
5	Aaron Hernandez	NE	5
6	Owen Daniels	Hou	6
7	Heath Miller	Pit	7
8	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	9
9	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	10
10	Antonio Gates	SD	11
11	Vernon Davis	SF	8
12	Kyle Rudolph	Min	16
13	Greg Olsen	Car	17
14	Jared Cook	Ten	14
15	Brandon Myers	Oak	13
16	Dustin Keller	NYJ	12
17	Martellus Bennett	NYG	15
18	Scott Chandler	Buf	19
19	Dwayne Allen	Ind	21
20	Brent Celek	Phi	18
21	Dennis Pitta	Bal	27
22	Jermichael Finley	GB	23
23	Joel Dreessen	Den	22
24	Jacob Tamme	Den	20
25	Logan Paulsen	Wsh	25
26	Rob Housler	Ari	26
27	Coby Fleener	Ind	24
28	Zach Miller	Sea	28
29	Anthony Fasano	Mia	29
30	Kellen Davis	Chi	30

Tight ends started the 2012 season well but had really quieted down until this past weekend, when three players topped 20 fantasy points. That matched the season total for 20-point tight end games. Jimmy Graham of the Saints is making his case for the top spot again, as he has 51 fantasy points over the past three weeks. Rob Gronkowski scored Sunday, so it's tough to move him out of the top spot. Jason Witten remains highly targeted and holds off Tony Gonzalez for the No. 3 spot, but the case can be made for a switch.

This was also a week in which numerous forgotten tight ends returned to relevancy, though chances are fantasy owners had already discarded them. Kyle Rudolph of the Vikings provided one measly fantasy point from Weeks 7-9. On Sunday, he caught seven passes, one for a score. Dennis Pitta of the Baltimore Ravens was a target machine in September, but he hadn't topped three fantasy points since Week 3 -- until Sunday, when he had 12 fantasy points. Greg Olsen of the Panthers had produced 12 fantasy points the past four games, so his 22 points Sunday shouldn't be overblown. These guys move up, but not into the top 10.

Meanwhile, Owen Daniels and Aaron Hernandez did not play in Week 10, but they retain their top-10 slots, as they should return soon. Plus, there aren't great options to pass them. Vernon Davis of the 49ers continues to disappoint, as he last topped three fantasy points in Week 5. He barely drops out of the top 10, but fantasy owners should not drop him.

[h=3]Top 32 Defense/Special Teams[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>	<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Chicago Bears	1	17	Dallas Cowboys	21
2	Houston Texans	2	18	Baltimore Ravens	17
3	San Francisco 49ers	3	19	San Diego Chargers	18
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	20	Cleveland Browns	19
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20
6	Green Bay Packers	6	22	Cincinnati Bengals	22
7	Denver Broncos	12	23	Washington Redskins	24
8	Arizona Cardinals	7	24	Carolina Panthers	25
9	Minnesota Vikings	8	25	Philadelphia Eagles	23
10	Atlanta Falcons	11	26	Indianapolis Colts	26
11	New York Jets	13	27	New Orleans Saints	29
12	New York Giants	10	28	Jacksonville Jaguars	28
13	Miami Dolphins	9	29	Tennessee Titans	32
14	New England Patriots	14	30	Kansas City Chiefs	30
15	Detroit Lions	15	31	Buffalo Bills	31
16	St. Louis Rams	16	32	Oakland Raiders	27

[h=3]Top 100 Overall[/h]

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<center> Ovr. Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos. Rank </center>	<center> Next 3 Weeks </center>	<center> Prev. Rank </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	RB1	Jac, @Det, @Ten	1
2	Adrian Peterson	Min	RB2	bye, @Chi, @GB	2
3	Ray Rice	Bal	RB3	@Pit, @SD, Pit	3
4	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	RB4	bye, @Mia, @Chi	4
5	LeSean McCoy	Phi	RB5	@Wsh, Car, @Dal	5
6	Frank Gore	SF	RB6	Chi, @NO, @StL	6
7	A.J. Green	Cin	WR1	@KC, Oak, @SD	7
8	Doug Martin	TB	RB7	@Car, Atl, @Den	10
9	Brandon Marshall	Chi	WR2	@SF, Min, Sea	9
10	Alfred Morris	Wsh	RB8	Phi, @Dal, NYG	11
11	Chris Johnson	Ten	RB9	bye, @Jac, Hou	27
12	Calvin Johnson	Det	WR3	GB, Hou, Ind	13
13	Roddy White	Atl	WR4	Ari, @TB, NO	16
14	Trent Richardson	Cle	RB10	@Dal, Pit, @Oak	14
15	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR5	@Atl, StL, @NYJ	15
16	Demaryius Thomas	Den	WR6	SD, @KC, TB	23
17	Stevan Ridley	NE	RB11	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	25
18	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB1	@Det, @NYG, Min	18
19	Drew Brees	NO	QB2	@Oak, SF, @Atl	19
20	Tom Brady	NE	QB3	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	20
21	Peyton Manning	Den	QB4	SD, @KC, TB	21
22	Julio Jones	Atl	WR7	Ari, @TB, NO	22
23	Victor Cruz	NYG	WR8	bye, GB, @Wsh	12
24	Matt Forte	Chi	RB12	@SF, Min, Sea	8
25	Ryan Mathews	SD	RB13	@Den, Bal, Cin	17
26	Marques Colston	NO	WR9	@Oak, SF, @Atl	32
27	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	RB14	bye, GB, @Wsh	24
28	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE1	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	28
29	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB15	Cin, Den, Car	29
30	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE2	@Oak, SF, @Atl	35
31	Matt Ryan	Atl	QB5	Ari, @TB, NO	30
32	Andrew Luck	Ind	QB6	@NE, Buf, @Det	34
33	Wes Welker	NE	WR10	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	33
34	Reggie Wayne	Ind	WR11	@NE, Buf, @Det	36
35	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	QB7	Phi, @Dal, NYG	31
36	Vincent Jackson	TB	WR12	@Car, Atl, @Den	42
37	Jason Witten	Dal	TE3	Cle, Wsh, Phi	37
38	C.J. Spiller	Buf	RB16	Mia, @Ind, Jac	44
39	Percy Harvin	Min	WR13	bye, @Chi, @GB	26
40	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	TE4	Ari, @TB, NO	50
41	Matthew Stafford	Det	QB8	GB, Hou, Ind	54
42	Willis McGahee	Den	RB17	SD, @KC, TB	41
43	Miles Austin	Dal	WR14	Cle, Wsh, Phi	48
44	Mike Wallace	Pit	WR15	Bal, @Cle, @Bal	39
45	Mikel Leshoure	Det	RB18	GB, Hou, Ind	47
46	Steven Jackson	StL	RB19	NYJ, @Ari, SF	62
47	Eric Decker	Den	WR16	SD, @KC, TB	49
48	Reggie Bush	Mia	RB20	@Buf, Sea, NE	45
49	Dez Bryant	Dal	WR17	Cle, Wsh, Phi	60
50	Aaron Hernandez	NE	TE5	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	51
51	Michael Turner	Atl	RB21	Ari, @TB, NO	38
52	Fred Jackson	Buf	RB22	Mia, @Ind, Jac	58
53	Josh Freeman	TB	QB9	@Car, Atl, @Den	59
54	Eli Manning	NYG	QB10	bye, GB, @Wsh	53
55	Denarius Moore	Oak	WR18	NO, @Cin, Cle	85
56	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	RB23	@KC, Oak, @SD	56
57	Andre Johnson	Hou	WR19	Jac, @Det, @Ten	43
58	Darren McFadden	Oak	RB24	NO, @Cin, Cle	46
59	Randall Cobb	GB	WR20	@Det, @NYG, Min	55
60	James Jones	GB	WR21	@Det, @NYG, Min	57
61	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB25	@Hou, Ten, @Buf	52
62	Torrey Smith	Bal	WR22	@Pit, @SD, Pit	65
63	Cam Newton	Car	QB11	TB, @Phi, @KC	64
64	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR23	bye, GB, @Wsh	75
65	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB12	Bal, @Cle, @Bal	40
66	Tony Romo	Dal	QB13	Cle, Wsh, Phi	66
67	Shonn Greene	NYJ	RB26	@StL, NE, Ari	67
68	Philip Rivers	SD	QB14	@Den, Bal, Cin	76
69	Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR24	Cin, Den, Car	63
70	Rashad Jennings	Jac	RB27	@Hou, Ten, @Buf	72
71	Darren Sproles	NO	RB28	@Oak, SF, @Atl	73
72	Steve Smith	Car	WR25	TB, @Phi, @KC	61
73	Jordy Nelson	GB	WR26	@Det, @NYG, Min	69
74	Chicago Bears	Chi	D1	@SF, Min, Sea	70
75	Owen Daniels	Hou	TE6	Jac, @Det, @Ten	71
76	Carson Palmer	Oak	QB15	NO, @Cin, Cle	NR
77	Mike Williams	TB	WR27	@Car, Atl, @Den	74
78	Donald Brown	Ind	RB29	@NE, Buf, @Det	80
79	Heath Miller	Pit	TE7	Bal, @Cle, @Bal	79
80	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB30	Bal, @Cle, @Bal	82
81	Steve Johnson	Buf	WR28	Mia, @Ind, Jac	77
82	Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB31	TB, @Phi, @KC	83
83	Pierre Thomas	NO	RB32	@Oak, SF, @Atl	78
84	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	TE8	@KC, Oak, @SD	87
85	Lance Moore	NO	WR29	@Oak, SF, @Atl	86
86	Danny Amendola	StL	WR30	NYJ, @Ari, SF	NR
87	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	TE9	GB, Hou, Ind	98
88	Brandon Lloyd	NE	WR31	Ind, @NYJ, @Mia	81
89	Andre Brown	NYG	RB35	bye, GB, @Wsh	91
90	Sidney Rice	Sea	WR32	bye, @Mia, @Chi	96
91	Jonathan Dwyer	Pit	RB33	Bal, @Cle, @Bal	NR
92	DeSean Jackson	Phi	WR33	@Wsh, Car, @Dal	90
93	LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	RB34	@Atl, StL, @NYJ	93
94	DeMarco Murray	Dal	RB36	Cle, Wsh, Phi	94
95	Houston Texans	Hou	D2	Jac, @Det, @Ten	95
96	Michael Crabtree	SF	WR34	Chi, @NO, @StL	NR
97	Felix Jones	Dal	RB37	Cle, Wsh, Phi	NR
98	Antonio Gates	SD	TE10	@Den, Bal, Cin	100
99	Vick Ballard	Ind	RB38	@NE, Buf, @Det	99
100	Vernon Davis	SF	TE11	Chi, @NO, @StL	84

HacheMan · Nov 13, 2012

[h=1]Fantasy playoff trade targets[/h][h=3]Fantasy Foresight: Trade targets include MJD and Victor Cruz[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

With a little over a week to go until the standard trading deadline passes in most ESPN fantasy football leagues, it is pretty much now or never for owners to put together trades that can make the difference towards winning a fantasy football championship.

In reviewing trade options, it is obviously helpful to know which players are likely to be good or bad roster targets, but it is just as helpful to know which players on your own roster might be worth keeping or ditching.

This week's Fantasy Foresight article aims to help with those decisions by reviewing a slew of trade candidates based on their prospects for success or failure from Weeks 13-17 of the NFL season.

Stevan Ridley

The book on Ridley is that the New England Patriots lean heavily on him against run defenses that don't deal well with power rushing attacks, and don't lean on him as much when facing defenses that possess a strong front seven.

Keeping that in mind, check out New England's matchups down the stretch: at Miami in Week 13, versus Houston in Week 14, versus San Francisco in Week 15, at Jacksonville in Week 16 and versus Miami in Week 17.
<offer>
Just about all of those defenses can hold their own against power rushing attacks, so if that past trend holds up, the Patriots will be giving Ridley a large workload in only one of those contests: the Jacksonville matchup. Ridley's stock is high now, so his fantasy owners should consider getting out while the getting is good.

James Starks/Alex Green/Cedric Benson

The Green Bay Packers really aren't getting much productivity out of their backfield right now but games against the Minnesota Vikings (who allowed 100 points to running backs in the four weeks before to this past weekend's contest against the Detroit Lions) in Weeks 13 and 17, and a Week 16 game against the Tennessee Titans (who have allowed 23 or more points to opposing running backs in seven out of 10 contests this year) both qualify as highly favorable playoff matchups and give these three ample postseason value.

A side benefit here is that there are many potential avenues to take advantage of these matchups. An owner could aim to add Starks off of the waiver wire (owned in 5.7 percent of ESPN leagues), put in a buy-low trade offer for Green or make a trade offer or waiver claim for Benson, who is on the temporary IR list and could be available to return to the Packers' lineup in Week 14.

Arian Foster/Ben Tate

This is just a heads-up to Foster owners that if someone comes along and tries to offer you a seemingly great deal to trade him away, remember that he has matchups against the aforementioned weak Minnesota and Tennessee defenses during the playoffs, in addition to two matchups against a very inconsistent Indianapolis Colts run defense. The price to consider parting with him should be beyond sky-high.</offer>

Having noted that, it cannot be overlooked that Foster is currently on pace to rack up 393 carries this season. That heavy workload has happened in part because Tate has been slowed and/or sidelined with injuries for much of the year. Those ailments have dropped Tate's ownership level to 69.3 percent and sent his trade stock value plummeting. This might be a perfect time to stash him on the roster via waivers or make a buy-low offer with the hope that the Texans will want to rest Foster down the stretch once Tate is healthy again.

Maurice Jones-Drew/Rashad Jennings

It is difficult to suggest targeting anyone on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster for a trade right now until one looks at their schedule.

The Jaguars face Tennessee in Week 12, Buffalo in Week 13, the New York Jets in Week 14 and Tennessee again in Week 17. All of those defenses have been terrible at stopping the run of late, and that means the Jacksonville running backs could have a significant amount of upside potential. That potential can be had at a very low price because of Jones-Drew's injury and Jennings' relative lack of productivity.

Reggie Bush

Bush has been in a slump of late and was even benched this past week after losing a fumble. That downward productivity trend is likely to continue later in the season due to a slew of tough matchups that includes Seattle in Week 12, New England in Weeks 13 and 17 and San Francisco in Week 14.

The good news for those owners wishing to trade Bush away is that his Week 11 matchup is against a weak Buffalo defense. That could offer trade advantages both going into that game (look for owners who desperately need a win this week) or after that game (look for owners who tend to overreact to individual big point performances).

Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz

As noted in last week's Fantasy Foresight article, Nicks has posted very underrated metrics this year, and his nine receptions for 75 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 offer more evidence that he is getting back to full speed in a hurry.

That upward trend might not be enough to convince his fantasy owners to protect him in a trade, especially since the New York Giants are on a bye this week. If he can be had for a low price, it will pay off big-time during the playoff matchups that include contests against the Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints.

Last week's article also illustrated how Cruz's metrics have fallen off, and that trend continued against the Bengals in part because Cruz dropped an easy touchdown pass. It's possible the bye week will help him get things turned around, but, as noted in this week's Blindsided ESPN Insider Premium Audio podcast, it is just as likely that Cruz's contract negotiations are serving as a distraction and causing his performance to drop off. If you have Cruz on your roster and can still get a good offer for him, the odds say this is a trade worth making.
Dustin Keller/Brent Celek

This has been something of a nightmare season for getting production out of fantasy tight ends, so for many owners any potential solution that offers even an outside chance of upside is a welcome endeavor.

Keller and Celek fit that description both because of solid point production histories and because they both have two favorable playoff matchups (Keller with Tennessee in Week 15 and Buffalo in Week 17, Celek with Cincinnati in Week 15 and Washington in Week 16). Keller's lower ownership percentage (32.9 percent versus Celek's 70.6 percent) might make him the better option in many leagues, but Celek's buy-low price could work better for owners to whom trading excess talent is worth saving a rank in the waiver selection process.

Carson Palmer

I've been asking this question for a few weeks now and will ask it again: Why isn't Palmer owned in more leagues? He ranks ninth in scoring among fantasy quarterbacks yet he is owned in only 66.8 percent of leagues. If he is on the waiver wire, get him on your team ASAP.

HacheMan · Nov 13, 2012

Ten rules to making trades

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Before you know it, the fantasy football playoffs will be upon us. With many a league's trade deadline fast approaching (Noon ET on Wednesday, Nov. 21 in ESPN standard leagues), the clock is ticking on a chance to make those final little tweaks to your fantasy rosters. At this point, with the waiver wire likely picked clean, the only way to improve your lot is to finagle a deal.

In some leagues, that's easier said than done, as the veto rears its ugly head regardless of the fairness of the trade in question. However, before you can present any deal to the rest of your league for its stamp of approval, you first have to get an agreement in place -- one that you're happy with, at that.

Here, then, are a few tips and some rules of trading etiquette to take into consideration in order to make the wheeling and dealing a little easier to accomplish and get that championship trophy a little bit closer to a resting place on your mantel.

1. Look at the schedule: Sometimes the hardest thing to do when planning a deal is figuring out which players to target in the first place. While it's no guarantee of success, you certainly want to consider players who are facing the weaker defenses in the league the rest of the way. By Week 11, most of these teams "are who we think they are." So if you need running back help, Maurice Jones-Drew -- assuming he can return to action by Week 12 -- will have a pair of games against the Tennessee Titans and one each against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. All three of those squads rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Similarly, with Carolina set to play two of the three worst fantasy defenses against the pass (New Orleans and Tampa Bay), perhaps dealing for Steve Smith or Brandon LaFell would be a good idea. Christopher Harris did a lot of this work for you in last week's Hard Count.

2. Look at the standings: Even if the upcoming schedule seems tasty, you can't ignore the fact that NFL teams headed for the playoffs may opt to rest their starters as the regular season winds down to prevent unexpected injuries. There's nothing worse than playing in your league championship and having to hope that you can get enough points from your studs in less than a quarter of play in order to win. If you have a playoff berth well in hand, maybe it's time to consider dangling Roddy White, Tom Brady or Arian Foster out there in order to avoid a "Peytoning" in Week 16 or 17. Heck, the way the Denver Broncos are playing, your Peyton Manning may well get "Peytoned" himself.

3. Say "bye" to your bench: Yes, injuries can still happen, and it's good to have an insurance policy in place in case one of your stars gets hurt. Having said that, if you need to start only two wide receivers and you have five top-20 guys on your roster, what good does holding on to someone like Torrey Smith do you if you're never going to start him over Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson or A.J. Green? Now that the bye weeks are packing up for the year, it's time to lose the love toward those 15th-round steals stashed on your bench and trade up for players who can actually get into your lineup.

4. Where there's D-Will, there's a way: A wiser use of that coveted bench space is to trade for handcuffs to your top tier players. Robert Turbin is far more valuable to the Marshawn Lynch owner who is holding his breath each and every time the Seahawks back is a little slow getting up after a hit than to any other owner in the league. Sure, the understudy may not perform as well as the star if disaster strikes, but if he's on your roster, at least you'll have somewhere to turn. Plus, if you're having trouble securing a deal for a player you really want and you see that solid second-stringer to one of your trading partner's starters on the waiver wire -- like DeAngelo Williams might be to the owner of Jonathan Stewart -- you can grab him with the goal of sending him away as part of the package in order to sweeten the pot enough to get the job done.

5. Value is in the eye of the beholder: Is Jermaine Gresham (58 points, ESPN standard) better than Cam Newton (143 points)? It would be hard to make that argument. Still, if you've been stuck starting a tight end like Dallas Clark (30 points) week after week and you have a quarterback alternative like Tony Romo (127 points) sitting on your bench gathering dust, who cares that a Gresham-Newton deal is not equal value? If trading Reggie Wayne for Shonn Greene is likely to give me five extra points a week, show me where to sign.

6. Don't use the veto as a weapon: If you signed up to play in a league where trading is allowed, then allow trades to take place. Judge each deal on the merits, keeping in mind what we learned in Rule No. 5. If a deal makes both teams better, let it go through. Far too many owners ignore this and veto solely based on the league standings, making sure that a deal that benefits an owner battling with them for a playoff spot can't get done. That's no way to play the game. The veto should be used to stop shady and collusive trades, not deals that you simply wish you could have made yourself.

7. "No matter how you do, no matter what you say": If you're in last place and have had only a passing interest in your league all season, don't suddenly jump into the mix just before Thanksgiving and decide to try to have some influence over who wins it all. Trust me, doing so does not mean "we we we are gonna have a good time." Don't trade your stars just because another owner asks you to. Don't send half your team to the waiver wire because you don't care anymore and have no chance to win. The best thing you can do is to stay out of it and not get involved in the trading game at all.

8. There's always next year: If you're in a keeper league, Rule No. 7 need not apply. There's a difference between dumping in a one-and-done draft-from-scratch league and building for the future in a league where you can protect players. If you're 0-10 in 2012 but can trade away potential retiree Tony Gonzalez for Ryan Tannehill and a No. 2 draft pick, go right ahead. If you're finishing last with Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback, you can finish last without him. Trade him away for two or three up-and-comers who can form a more solid foundation for your 2013 fantasy hopes.

9. It is better to give than receive: Would you ever consider trading Andrew Luck away and getting only Kendall Hunter in return? Perhaps not, and such a deal may well be vetoed for being unfair. However, let the league make that call. If Luck is your backup but he is a better quarterback than the one on the team currently playing the team you need to lose to make the playoffs, why not at least make the offer. If what you're receiving in return is something you actually need -- in this case, let's assume that you own Frank Gore, so acquiring Hunter makes sense -- then this isn't collusion. It's simply smart.

10. Sleep on it: This works both ways. You never want to assume that your team can't get any better, so when an offer comes your way, don't dismiss it out of hand. Take some time and consider the deal -- even an insulting offer -- and all its implications for the future before rejecting it. Maybe it doesn't make sense in its current form, but perhaps you can turn it into something you'd be happy accepting. At the same time, just because your team may be struggling, don't simply make deals for the sake of making deals. Yes, if you're suffering through Jamaal Charles and his fairly disappointing season, you may want to kick him to the curb. That may well be the best course of action, but don't simply grab the first deal that falls into your lap just because it's sitting there. Make sure that any move you do make is one that won't cause you any sleepless nights three weeks down the road rather than just clicking "Accept" out of frustration.

HacheMan · Nov 13, 2012

Roethlisberger injury update

Stephania Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger added to his injury history Monday night when he suffered an unusual injury to his right throwing shoulder. According to head coach Mike Tomlin, Roethlisberger suffered "an SC sprain," (a sternoclavicular joint sprain) and his status for this week is questionable.

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The sternoclavicular (SC) joint is located at the front of the chest, where the clavicle, or collarbone, meets the sternum, or breastbone. While it might seem strange to classify this as a shoulder injury, the SC joint is part of the global shoulder girdle (the scapula [shoulder blade], upper humerus [arm bone] and clavicle). When the shoulder moves, it creates movement at the SC joint. If there is an injury to the SC joint, it can impact any movement of the shoulder girdle, making it particularly problematic for a throwing athlete like Roethlisberger.

A sprain describes a ligamentous injury. The SC joint is reinforced by ligaments both in front of and behind the joint. It also has ligaments that attach it to the first rib. The ligaments are particularly strong and injury here is relatively uncommon. A fall on the arm usually results in an acromioclavicular (AC) sprain (often referred to as a separated shoulder if there is displacement of the collarbone away from the shoulder blade) or a fracture of the clavicle. If the forces are transmitted in just the right manner, however, the SC joint becomes the victim, as was the case with Roethlisberger and the ligaments or joint capsule (fibrous tissue around the joint) become stretched or torn.

There has been no indication from the Steelers as to the degree of injury suffered by Roethlisberger making it somewhat challenging to prognosticate. ESPN's Ed Werder reports that Roethlisberger also sustained a rib injury Monday night. It is unclear which of his 12 ribs is injured, but at the very least it adds to the pain problem for Roethlisberger.

Standard treatment for most SC injuries is non-operative. The primary goal initially is to reduce the pain and inflammation to the point where the athlete can begin range of motion and strengthening. The time frame for recovery can vary widely, from days to multiple weeks. The key factor in returning to play will be when Roethlisberger can function effectively at the quarterback position. It's not just concern about contact from an opposing player or a takedown to the ground. Because the SC joint moves every time there is any motion in the shoulder, return to activity will test his pain tolerance. Then again, this is a quarterback who has shown he can play through significant pain. Whether he is able to be effective throwing the ball may be another matter.

There aren't many examples of comparable injuries, given how infrequently it occurs. St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola sustained an SC injury in Week 5 this season but returned in strong fashion in Week 10. Amendola suffered a potentially serious posterior dislocation of his SC joint that required immediate medical attention to restore the joint to its proper position. Amendola was initially projected to miss six to eight weeks but was able to beat that timetable. Not only are their injuries not identical, but the functional demands of a receiver and a quarterback are quite different, making it difficult to draw any substantial comparison between Amendola and Roethlisberger.

Perhaps more relevant is the case of Brett Favre who, like Roethlisberger, was known for playing through significant pain. Yet even Favre could not maintain his consecutive start streak after he suffered an SC sprain in 2010 while with the Minnesota Vikings. Still, despite the expectation that he might be sidelined multiple weeks with that injury, Favre only missed one game before returning to start for the Vikings. His return was cut short when he suffered a concussion and he was forced to miss the remaining two games of the season, making it impossible to know just how well the SC joint would have held up.

It seems highly unlikely that Roethlisberger will be available this Sunday, but he has yet to be officially ruled out. Even a return next week would be quick, given the nature of his injury and the degree of pain he is reportedly experiencing now. But the Steelers have come to know that when it comes to injuries, Roethlisberger has a history of defying expectations. Perhaps he will do so again.