NFL Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Four Downs: Stafford, Greene sharp, but ...

Eric Karabell

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford eventually picked apart the Philadelphia Eagles in a 26-23 comeback overtime victory Sunday, but I'm skeptical about this young quarterback and whether to truly trust him the rest of this season.




Stafford looked downright awful for three quarters, then put up 220 of his 311 passing yards in the fourth quarter and overtime. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he was 1-for-5 for 28 yards and an interception on throws at least 15 yards downfield through three quarters.


<offer>Stafford ultimately ran for a touchdown, threw for another and ended up with 20 fantasy points in standard leagues, his finest fantasy performance of the season, but it wasn't pretty. Plus, 20 fantasy points in a given week wasn't such a struggle last year, when he topped 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. Stafford scored 22 or more points in eight games. For most of Sunday, he wasn't the same guy. If Stafford hadn't accomplished what he did a year ago, finishing fifth overall with 333 fantasy points (more than 20 per week), expectations would be considerably lower today. Well, perhaps they still should be.</offer>
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<offer>Stafford salvaged his game Sunday, but don't pretend all is well, and it's why I ranked him as a borderline top-10 quarterback in my end-of-season rankings this past Tuesday. I sure would look into selling high on him if you've got another top-12 quarterback option. Yes, I would rather have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Robert Griffin III, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and both Mannings than Stafford, and looking at Detroit's pending schedule, it might not be long before Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and even Andrew Luck catch him, too. Perhaps the hip injury that likely hindered Stafford in September remains a factor. The Lions came off their bye week and looked terrible offensively for three hours, with the most consistent aspect of their game being their repeated penalties.


Philly's secondary folded late, but Stafford will be facing better defenses the next two weeks in the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks. It will be tougher to trade a quarterback coming off a 12-point game, or if he's limping. Next week the Lions are back in Chicago, scene of Stafford's four-interception performance in Week 10 last year. The Bears' defense entered this Week 6 tied with Aaron Rodgers for fifth overall in fantasy points, and this unit has scored the same five touchdowns Stafford has in five games. The final four weeks of the season, at fantasy playoff time, Stafford will be in Green Bay and Arizona, then hosting the Atlanta Falcons -- will they still be undefeated by then? -- and then the Bears again. That's just not appealing.


Fantasy owners can choose to trust the Stafford who excelled late Sunday, but we can't erase what happened through three quarters, with fewer than 100 passing yards, or really, the first mediocre month. It took a while for Stafford to get in sync with Calvin Johnson on Sunday, as Megatron had just one reception entering the fourth quarter. He finished with 13 points, which isn't so special, but it beats nothing, and Cincinnati Bengals stud A.J. Green and New York Giants "dancer" Victor Cruz are just as dominant at this point, perhaps more so. Green and Cruz will replace Johnson atop my year-to-end wide receiver rankings Tuesday.


None of this means Stafford and Johnson owners should wantonly sell off their first- or second-rounders for nobodies, but fantasy football is a game about value, and so far 2012 has not looked much like 2011 for these fellows. There's no harm in keeping these guys, but if you're a trading fool and want to cash in on perceived value, don't let the final 20 minutes of Sunday's comeback win cloud your judgment.

Second down: New York Jets running back Shonn Greene totaled 12 fantasy points in his past four games, rushing for no more than 40 yards in a game, so Sunday's 161-yard, three-touchdown explosion in Indianapolis shouldn't be overrated. I can't sell high fast enough. Seriously, Greene is better than he looked the past month, but the Jets don't face the Colts again. They have the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins the next fortnight. Greene was below average much of 2011, as well, topping 15 fantasy points in only two contests. This was not Greene turning the corner to stardom, this was the Colts being the Colts.


Third down: Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez returned to the lineup Sunday and had six catches, 30 yards and a 1-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, Rob Gronkowski owners continue to grumble that their second-round pick is underachieving. The fact is both fellows should be top-10 tight ends, but it's a bit late to get proper return on draft-day investment for either. Hernandez was a risky play in Week 6, but won't be moving forward. While he didn't appear fully recovered from an ankle injury that cost him essentially four games, this is a top-10 tight end. Same with Gronkowski, though he's clearly not 100 percent. If you can still sell high on Gronkowski, pointing out his 2011 numbers, do so.


Fourth down: Two struggling Dallas Cowboys running backs thrived Sunday, which tells us … we're past the point of fearing the once-vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense. That defense, which lost several key players Sunday, allowed a franchise-record 227 rushing yards Sunday. Over the past two weeks, opponents have rushed for a league-high 352 yards between the tackles. In other words, Arian Foster, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden and Rashard Mendenhall (twice!) should enjoy future meetings. As for the Cowboys, DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones each topped 90 rushing yards, but don't get too excited. Murray sprained a foot and left early, opening the door for the forgotten Jones, who entered play with five fantasy points all season. Murray's status for Week 7 remains unknown, but certainly his durability has been in question before. Jones will likely be a popular add, but we've seen his act in the past.
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[HacheMan]

Need fantasy help? These guys may be available

October 16. 2012 - Game statistics can indicate changes or opportunities for fantasy players. Here are 10 from Week 6 who can help your fantasy team now and in the coming weeks:1. TE Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (nine targets, TD): Hernandez, who returned after missing four games with an ankle injury, had six receptionsand one touchdown. Fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski also had nine passes thrown his way for six catches and 80 yards. The duo split the tight end workload even though Hernandez had been limited in practice and hadn't played in a month. Gronkowski has scored in half of his games, and Hernandez has a touchdown in both of his.
UNDER THE RADAR: Surprising WRs among target leaders
2. QB Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns (280 passing yards): No matter that the Browns have lost Travis Benjamin, Mohamed Massaquoi and Jordan Norwood to injuries. Weeden just reloads and throws to new guys. Last weekend it was Josh Cooper (two catches, 39 yards), an ex-teammate at Oklahoma State called up from the practice squad. The Browns rookie employs perhaps the least experienced set of receivers in the NFL, a mishmash of mediocrity, and yet Weeden throws for 253 yards a game. If the Browns acquire better options next season, Weeden could thrive.
3. WR Josh Gordon, Browns (three catches, 99 yards, TD): Gordon followed his two-touchdown, 82-yard performance against the New York Giants with another big game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. He has scored three times in the last two weeks yet hasn't caught more than three passes in any game. The Indianapolis Colts offer a decent shot at the scoring trifecta next weekend.
4. RB Shonn Greene, New York Jets (32 carries, 161 yards, three TDs): Greene set career marks in carries, yards and scores. He looked like an NFL-quality running back for the first time this season, which will save his job for the next month. Greene rushed for 103 yards in the previous four games combined, and the Colts, last weekend's opponent, were depleted by injuries. Nice time to sell Greene.
5. QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (328 passing yards, three TDs): Freeman rarely is considered a fantasy starter; he might not even be on a roster in your league. But in the last two weeks, he has passed for 299 yards against the Washington Redskins and 328 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. He had three touchdown passes last weekend and has eight scores for the season. If you have been starting Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick or Philip Rivers for your fantasy team, they are on bye this week. Freeman will be at home facing the visiting New Orleans Saints. That makes for a slick roster move if only for one week.
6. K Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis Rams (66-yard field goal attempt): He missed the kick on the final play vs. the Miami Dolphins; it went wide left and hit the net covering the stands. Straighten the kick out a little, and he would have set the distance record by 3 yards. A warning, however: The rookie was 13 of 13 on field goals coming into the game but also missed from 37 and 52 yards.
7. RB Alex Green, Green Bay Packers (22 carries, 65 yards): Cedric Benson is out for the next eight weeks, and the Packers promoted Green to the starting role with mention of a committee that would feature James Starks. Sunday at the Houston Texans, Starks didn't have a carry until 5:27 remained in the game and the score was 42-24 in favor of the Packers. Green could be a lot more of a factor in future weeks against the Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals.
8. RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots (16 carries, 34 yards): Ridley produced two games of more than 100 rushing yards but fell flat against the Seattle Seahwaks. Expect nice returns when the Patriots face the New York Jets (twice), Rams, Buffalo Bills and Colts in the coming weeks.
9. QB Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders (353 passing yards, TD): Palmer started the season with 297- and 373-yard efforts against the San Diego Chargers and Dolphins, respectively. But with 209 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and then 202 yards against the Denver Broncos, his stock fell. Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons helped breathe new life in Oakland's developing offense. The Raiders' upcoming schedule features the Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens and Saints; none ranks as a top-10 defense against quarterbacks. Palmer still is too risky as a full-time starter, though.
10. 100-yard rushers (two): Welcome to the future. The two backs who rushed for more than 100 yards were the New York Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw at the San Francisco 49ers and Greene. In the last 10 years, there hadn't been a week with fewer than three runners who had at least 100 rushing yards.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 7[/h][h=3]Felix Jones the top new player in a thin crop of waiver-wire pickups[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Murphy's law dictates that on the most hellacious bye week of the 2012 season, with a whopping six teams taking a breather, new introductions to our standard-league waiver-wire suggestions are at their slimmest.

There are a few obvious adds for the desperate, but I'm guessing you're going to find the best solutions to your fantasy problems in names that I've mentioned in earlier columns. That's why I want to emphasize the italicized section that comes after all my new-player verbiage, because it may hold the key to your roster salvation. I can't write about the same players week after week, so we have a handy compendium of past players I've mentioned who are still viable transaction fodder. Pay attention to this list!


For example, this week I'd say Alex Green is probably my No. 1 long-term waiver add. Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters he is going to use Green as his lead back, and while the second-year man from the University of Hawaii didn't produce a huge Week 6, he is good enough to be a flex in most standard leagues. However, since I discussed Green at length last week, I'm not going to go on about him now. And that's the case for many of the better adds each week.

So here I go with some descriptions of new free-agent finds, but please don't forget the old ones. In several cases, they're better.

Week 7 byes: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons

[h=3]Standard ESPN League Finds[/h]
Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys (owned in 51.4 percent of ESPN.com leagues): Yeah, this guy. I'm breaking my self-imposed rule of including only players owned in fewer than half of ESPN leagues to bring you one of the great fantasy teases of our time. Jones is a former first-round draft pick who was supposed to rise to superstardom once Marion Barber left Big D. Instead, all Jones proved in 2011 is that he's not a very good feature back. But DeMarco Murray sprained his foot Sunday and has little chance of playing in Week 7, plus anyone who owned Darren McFadden last season knows that a "mere foot sprain" can turn into an operatic, multiweek absence. Will Jones do a dang thing with this opportunity? I'll admit I'm skeptical, though he did have 105 total yards on 19 touches Sunday, including a strong 22-yard touchdown while Murray was still healthy. Jones certainly needs to be added by all Murray owners, and the Carolina Panthers have been the fifth-easiest matchup for opposing running backs over the past five weeks, according to my metrics. Still, don't you have a sense that if there's a way for Jones to screw up this opportunity, he will?

Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts (32.0 percent): News of Donald Brown's knee scope didn't arrive until last Wednesday, so Ballard missed last week's Free-Agent Finds column. Folks who added and started him in what looked like a plum matchup against the New York Jets were disappointed by 10 touches for 42 yards, and the tape shows that Ballard is a workmanlike, replacement-level back. But Sunday he was caught in the crossfire of an utter blowout, during which Indy passed 30 times and ran eight times in the second half. The good news for Ballard's (temporary) owners is that the Mississippi State rookie played on a majority of first and second downs and showed some pass-catching ability. He is still a stopgap solution, but I'd imagine the results will be a bit better against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns (0.4 percent): Trent Richardson took a helmet to the ribcage Sunday and had to leave the Browns' first win of the 2012 campaign. In his place, Hardesty rushed for 56 yards on 15 carries, bettering T-Rich's 14 for 37. There's no comparison between these guys' talent, and if Richardson is able to play Sunday against the Colts, Hardesty should be about as far away from your starting lineup as I am. But if T-Rich can't go, Hardesty would be a suitable, if low-upside, fill-in. For what it's worth, Browns coach Pat Shurmur told reporters he thinks Richardson will be able to play with his rib cartilage injury, but Hardesty still makes for a smart insurance add.


Brandon Gibson, WR, St. Louis Rams (24.8 percent): Here's another player I'm hesitant to recommend. Gibson was a good player at Washington State and showed promise beginning midway through his rookie season in 2009. There's no reason why Gibson can't be at least a serviceable flanker. He is big enough (6-foot, 204 pounds) and fast enough (4.59 40) with strong enough ball skills to rise above the rest of the flotsam St. Louis has had at wide receiver over the past few seasons. But it never works out that way. Rams fans have been able to count on Gibson for head-clutching drops in key situations for years. That said, Danny Amendola is out for a while, and on Sunday, Gibson had seven grabs for 91 yards and led his team with nine targets. All I know is that Gibson is as likely to commit a false-start penalty or accidentally step out of bounds as he is to produce a massive fantasy day, but in a week without an obvious standard-league WR fill-in candidate, Gibson is probably the best you're going to do.

New England Patriots D/ST (46 percent): Phew, some of these new names are making me nauseous. After one of the 2012 season's worst collapses in Seattle on Sunday, is this knuckleheaded unit really worth a spot start? Well, six teams are on bye this week, and some of the likelier fill-ins, based on talent, have bad matchups. For instance, the Rams play the Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the New Orleans Saints. The Pats can't muster a pass rush in key situations, which exposes their truly dreadful and non-cerebral secondary, which leads to end-of-game collapses. Remember, though, this team has lost three games by a combined four points, and this fantasy defense has scored five or more fantasy points in all but one game. The Jets' offense played quite well Sunday against the Colts, but it's still a top-eight matchup for opposing fantasy defenses, according to my metrics. If the Patriots aren't available in your league, my next-best lesser-owned D/ST would be the Browns (4.2 percent) against the Colts.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings (36.7 percent); Alex Green, RB, Packers (28.4 percent); William Powell, RB, Cardinals (3.2 percent); Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots (26.6 percent); LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB, Cardinals (23.7 percent); Randall Cobb, WR, Packers (36 percent); Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants (17 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (13.2 percent); Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets (44.3 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals (31 percent); Scott Chandler, TE, Bills (46.1 percent).

[h=3]Deeper-League Finds[/h]
Phillip Tanner, RB, Dallas Cowboys (0.1 percent): Deep-leaguers who simply can't get aboard the Felix Jones Express for another railroad disaster could take a shot on Tanner, a more physical and durable player than Jones, who chipped in 31 yards on nine carries against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. (Jones missed time in the second half -- surprise! -- with leg cramps). Maybe the Panthers are bad enough against the run Sunday that both Jones and Tanner get close to a full workload. Or if Murray's absence becomes an extended one, perhaps Jones gets hurt again and Tanner earns the starting gig.

Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams (0.5 percent): Givens had knee issues and reported ego troubles -- he thinks he's the greatest thing since sliced bread, apparently -- which led to a falling stock in April's NFL draft, but the Rams snatched him up in the fourth round and have installed him as their deep threat. I like this kid in a deep dynasty league. Once he proves he can run a full route tree, he has some Mike Wallace potential. For the moment, he is probably no more than a fantasy flyer, but realize that he has made at least one play of 50 yards in each of his past three contests.


Baron Batch, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (0.3 percent): Steelers running backs were dropping faster than Spinal Tap drummers Thursday, as Rashard Mendenhall injured an Achilles and Isaac Redman followed up his improbable receiving night with a blow to his ankle. That left Batch as Pittsburgh's primary back late, and he responded with 22 yards on 10 carries and a goal-line touchdown. It sounds like Mendy might be able to play Sunday night against the Cincinnati Bengals, in which case Batch becomes, at best, a five-carry fill-in, plus early-season waiver add Jonathan Dwyer could back in the mix at some point. But Batch showed he has just a hint of Willie Parker in him, which makes his a name to remember in deep leagues.

John Skelton, QB, Arizona Cardinals (1.9 percent): Kevin Kolb took a big hit to his rib cage in Sunday's loss, and while X-rays were negative, Arizona has sent their starting quarterback for an MRI. That makes me think Kolb is in a whole bunch of pain, which makes me think there is a pretty good chance he doesn't play in Week 7. That would put Skelton back in the crosshairs. Going on the road to play the Minnesota Vikings is an awful matchup for a struggling Cardinals' offense, and there's no reason to believe this beleaguered offensive line will give Skelton any more time to throw than it did Kolb. But if you're in a two-QB league and have been relying on Kolb of late, you'd do well to add Skelton.

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<!-- end inline 1 -->Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Cleveland Browns (0.4 percent): With Richardson sounding likely to suit up Sunday and Hardesty likely to take the reins even if he doesn't, Ogbonnaya isn't more than a fringe addition in deeper leagues. But realize that Obie was playing most third downs last week even before T-Rich got hurt, and he does have 16 catches in five games. PPR leaguers can at least remember this situation, in case injuries take a larger toll on Cleveland's backfield.

Mike Goodson, RB, Oakland Raiders (3.3 percent): Goodson produced 96 yards from scrimmage on five touches Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, but that's probably not the reason deep-leaguers should think about investing in him. McFadden is always an ill-placed step away from the injury list, and it's apparent that Goodson has easily surpassed Taiwan Jones on the Raiders' depth chart. That makes Goodson the handcuff in Oakland.


Cedric Peerman, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (0.1 percent): With Bernard Scott out for the season and Brian Leonard battling a rib injury he suffered versus the Browns last week, Peerman seems in line for third-down touches behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Only take a look at Peerman if you're in desperation mode in a deep PPR league. The Bengals are known to be kicking the tires on free-agent running back, and the journeyman Peerman doesn't fit the mold of being BJGE's handcuff.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Brandon Weeden, QB, Browns (6 percent); LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers (26.8 perecent); James Starks, RB, Packers (7.9 percent); Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers (15.2 percent); Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams (4.1 percent); Joique Bell, RB, Lions (3 percent); Jamie Harper, RB, Titans (0.1 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (2.5 percent); Stephen Hill, WR, Jets (15.1 percent); Donnie Avery, WR, Colts (7.4 percent); Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks (4.9 percent); Devery Henderson, WR, Saints (2.8 percent); Brandon Myers, TE, Raiders (1.6 percent).

 

[HacheMan]

Jones-Drew enters crunch time for fantasy owners

October 16. 2012 - The Jacksonville Jaguars' substandard passing game caught up with Maurice Jones-Drew a bit in his two contests before their Week 6 bye. In the pair, he averaged 12.5 attempts for 47 yards because his team abandoned the run after it had fallen behind considerably. (He added six receptions and 45 receiving yards, most of it coming in Week 4.)Actually, if you forget MJD's Week 3 effort against the Indianapolis Colts (28 carries for 177 yards and one TD, plus a couple of catches for 16 yards), his numbers are quite pedestrian. I mean, cripes, even Shonn Greene obliterated Indy's defense. Subtracted, Jones-Drew has posted about 75 total yards per game on 14 carries and three catches per game. No touchdowns.
If you like, blame a holdout as well as injuries to a couple of the Jags' linemen for Jones-Drew's modest start. Let's assume that the offense's focal point is at full speed coming off a bye and its front five are at full strength.
According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville has fielded one of the league's better run-blocking units. They rate about as well as they did last season, give or take. Just as they were last year, this year from Week 7 on, they should be willing to feed the running back until he bursts.
And just as they did last year, opponents know what's coming. But this year, the Jaguars' defense appears to be clueless, whereas last season, it was just lost occasionally. They rank 29th in yards (424.0) and 25th in points (27.6) allowed per game. In 2011, they were sixth in yardage (313.0) and 11th in points (20.6). Their 2012 schedule doesn't appear to be much more difficult than last season's, at the same point.
When Jacksonville becomes more dedicated to the running game and linebacker Daryl Smith (groin injury) is back in the fold -- perhaps this week -- they should improve on defense. Jones-Drew will continue to be a dump-off target and a threat in space when he catches the ball.
But what if the upgrade isn't significant? When you think Mike Mularkey, do you associate him with "committed to the run?"
From this week forward, the Jaguars have a handful of dates that should prove to be real stat-padding days for Jones-Drew. They also face several squads that are capable of shutting MJD down completely, and four of the five have the kind of offenses that could put J'ville in a crater before the first quarter ends. Two of those foes loom in the semis and finals of most fantasy playoff schedules.
The Jones-Drew experience shapes up as a more frustrating one in 2012 than it was in 2011. At a time when he's helping many of his owners fight to get into their fantasy playoffs -- in Weeks 12 and 13 -- it may prove to be wiser to deal him, if your league still permits trades then.
What do you do if you're worried about making your league's postseason -- MJD should help you get there -- but also about the slate that awaits him if you do?

 

[HacheMan]

Cowboys' Jones may finally be ready to deliver

October 16. 2012 - Injuries continue to play a key role in shaping the weekly waiver wire list, and this week is no different. We have a guy that will step in and be the starter having an immediate fantasy impact, and we have several guys who have established themselves as the main backup to the starter.Priority addition
RB Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
It appears DeMarco Murray will miss at least some time with what the team website calls a foot sprain, which vaults Jones into the starting role after he put up more than 100 yards of total offense and scored a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens.
Dallas is a team that does not change its game plan based on personnel, so Jones will have an opportunity to carry the ball 20-plus times. It is rare to find a starting running back on the waiver wire who will immediately produce. This is one of those times.
WAIVER WIRE WONDERS: Deep/Dynasty league targets and more
Solid pickups
RB Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns
Filling in for the injured Trent Richardson, Hardesty got the call on first and second down for the Browns, performing well enough to tally 50-plus yards on the ground and find the end zone. Chris Ogbonnaya was the third down specialist, as is usually the case even with a healthy Richardson. Early reports are that Richardson is not seriously hurt, but fantasy owners take note that Hardesty is the player to own should he miss any time.
WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
Two weeks' worth of impressive yardage totals cannot be ignored any longer. A rookie quarterback and a fantasy address just off one of the Great Lakes are two strikes against him, but back-to-back impressive performances land Gordon on this week's pickup list. Three catches for 99 yards and a touchdown last week, and two touchdown catches for 82 yards the week before are enough to get the attention of many a fantasy owner.He may not be worth a starting spot, but he is certainly worth owning in all formats.
RB Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams
There is nothing physically wrong with Steven Jackson; the Rams are simply giving the ball to Richardson with more regularity. His carries are on the rise -- up to 11 last week (plus an impressive 76 yards), and he even added a couple catches out of the backfield. The Rams worked him in with Jackson on a near 50/50 basis against the Miami Dolphins. Those starved at the running back position can at least count on Richardson getting 10-plus touches per game, perhaps much more than that if he gets hot.
On the radar
WR Chris Givens, St. Louis Rams
Fantasy owners should prefer St. Louis wide receivers Austin Pettis and Brandon Gibson. But now that the Rams have played a game without Danny Amendola, put Givens on your watch list in case the pecking order needs to be adjusted. Gibson had a strong game (seven catches for 91 yards), Pettis did not (one catch for 11 yards). Starting opposite Gibson, Givens caught three passes for 85 yards, his third game in a row with a 50-plus yard reception. The Rams are putting the ball in the air with regularity, and owning the hot receiver can be fantasy gold. Keep an eye on this situation to see if Givens can continue to outperform Pettis and put up consistent fantasy numbers.
TE Joel Dreessen, Denver Broncos
Despite being behind Jacob Tamme on the depth chart, Dreessen has found his way into the end zone three times in the previous three weeks. In the Monday night spotlight, he caught a half-dozen passes for more than 57 yards. Tight end can be a difficult position to cover during the bye weeks, and Dreessen is likely available in most leagues. Denver is off in Week 7, so grab him now if your stud starter is out in the weeks to follow.
QB Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans
The Titans have already announced that Hasselbeck will start this week in place of the injured Jake Locker, his third consecutive start. Locker will likely be back soon, but in the meantime, Hasselbeck has been very good, throwing for 290 yards and a touchdown this past week. Upcoming matchups against the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts are on the horizon, so he's not a bad player off the waiver wire to grab to cover a bye week

 

[HacheMan]

'12 ranks: Packers' Jones, Green movin' up

Eric Karabell
Fresh off another exciting "Monday Night Football" comeback, Tuesday is the day we look ahead not only to the coming week, but to the rest of the season. This is the latest installment of the ESPN Fantasy end-of-season rankings. We're seeing less movement now that we're in mid-October and most roles have been set, injuries notwithstanding. Remember, these are not the Week 7 rankings; those will be posted Wednesday. Use these lists for trade purposes, and if your league has suddenly decided to redraft all over again. Good luck with that!
[h=3]Top 40 Quarterbacks[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	1
2	Drew Brees	NO	2
3	Tom Brady	NE	3
4	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	6
5	Cam Newton	Car	5
6	Matt Ryan	Atl	4
7	Eli Manning	NYG	7
8	Peyton Manning	Den	8
9	Philip Rivers	SD	10
10	Matthew Stafford	Det	9
11	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	11
12	Tony Romo	Dal	12
13	Joe Flacco	Bal	13
14	Michael Vick	Phi	15
15	Andrew Luck	Ind	14
16	Jay Cutler	Chi	16
17	Andy Dalton	Cin	18
18	Christian Ponder	Min	20
19	Matt Schaub	Hou	19
20	Alex Smith	SF	17
21	Carson Palmer	Oak	22
22	Josh Freeman	TB	23
23	Brandon Weeden	Cle	25
24	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	21
25	Sam Bradford	StL	24
26	Ryan Tannehill	Mia	27
27	Matt Hasselbeck	Ten	29
28	Jake Locker	Ten	28
29	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	30
30	Russell Wilson	Sea	33
31	Kevin Kolb	Ari	26
32	Blaine Gabbert	Jac	31
33	Matt Cassel	KC	32
34	Tim Tebow	NYJ	34
35	Colin Kaepernick	SF	35
36	John Skelton	Ari	36
37	Nick Foles	Phi	37
38	Brady Quinn	KC	40
39	Matt Flynn	Sea	38
40	Kirk Cousins	Wsh	39

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</tbody>

Leaving Green Bay Packers stud Aaron Rodgers in the top spot last week seems to be the wise move right now. Certainly the case could have been made for Drew Brees, but ultimately the top three have been left alone. C'mon, who expected Rodgers to throw six touchdown passes against a really good Houston Texans defense on the road? Regardless, Rodgers looked great, and his owners should not have been worried anyway. However, there is movement in the top 10, as the amazing Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins cannot be denied. Still have concerns about a concussion? Hope you didn't sit the rook in Week 6. He's better than Cam Newton today and probably last season as well, and he passes Matt Ryan. Frankly, the only issue I see with Griffin is the potential for injury, but on that 76-yard touchdown run nobody came close to him.

Ryan had a beautiful home matchup with the Oakland Raiders' secondary and, in turn, had all the love from fantasy owners, and he couldn't even make it to double digits in fantasy scoring. We're not jumping off his bandwagon, but that was unexpected. Ryan and the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons are on bye this week, then they face the dysfunctional Philadelphia Eagles, who will have a new defensive coordinator (about time). Ryan should be fine, though I suspect he might get caught by the Manning brothers soon.

Quite a few of the top quarterbacks in Week 6 also delivered surprise performances. It's simplistic to state Tampa Bay Buccaneers passer Josh Freeman is neither as good as two years ago nor as bad as last year -- which is true, by the way -- but suffice to say, he's more of a matchup option than a reliable choice. He gains a spot at the expense of erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick. Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder move up thanks to the Alex Smith drop. Smith's strength the past two seasons has been the ability to avoid turnovers, but Sunday against the New York Giants, he couldn't. Runner Colin Kaepernick appeared in relief Sunday but for now remains the backup, but an interesting one in case opportunity knocks.


[h=3]Top 60 Running Backs[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	1
2	Ray Rice	Bal	2
3	Jamaal Charles	KC	3
4	LeSean McCoy	Phi	4
5	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	5
6	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	6
7	Adrian Peterson	Min	7
8	Frank Gore	SF	8
9	Matt Forte	Chi	9
10	Darren McFadden	Oak	11
11	Ryan Mathews	SD	12
12	Trent Richardson	Cle	10
13	Alfred Morris	Wsh	14
14	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	16
15	Stevan Ridley	NE	13
16	Michael Turner	Atl	15
17	Doug Martin	TB	18
18	Darren Sproles	NO	19
19	C.J. Spiller	Buf	26
20	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	20
21	Reggie Bush	Mia	21
22	Willis McGahee	Den	22
23	Chris Johnson	Ten	24
24	DeMarco Murray	Dal	17
25	Steven Jackson	StL	23
26	Fred Jackson	Buf	29
27	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	25
28	Mikel Leshoure	Det	27
29	Shonn Greene	NYJ	32
30	Jonathan Stewart	Car	30
31	Michael Bush	Chi	31
32	Alex Green	GB	42
33	Mark Ingram	NO	33
34	Donald Brown	Ind	28
35	Pierre Thomas	NO	34
36	Kendall Hunter	SF	35
37	DeAngelo Williams	Car	36
38	LeGarrette Blount	TB	40
39	Jacquizz Rodgers	Atl	39
40	Daryl Richardson	StL	43
41	Brandon Bolden	NE	41
42	William Powell	Ari	51
43	Isaac Redman	Pit	46
44	Felix Jones	Dal	NR
45	Danny Woodhead	NE	49
46	Ben Tate	Hou	37
47	Lamar Miller	Mia	44
48	Montario Hardesty	Cle	NR
49	James Starks	GB	45
50	Daniel Thomas	Mia	38
51	David Wilson	NYG	54
52	Andre Brown	NYG	47
53	Joique Bell	Det	NR
54	Toby Gerhart	Min	48
55	Vick Ballard	Ind	NR
56	Shane Vereen	NE	50
57	LaRod Stephens-Howling	Ari	55
58	Jackie Battle	SD	56
59	Robert Turbin	Sea	58
60	Phillip Tanner	Dal	NR

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

Other than the ridiculous Shonn Greene performance in Indianapolis, in which he went from 12 fantasy points over a four-game span to a crazy 34 points Sunday, it was not a grand week for running backs around the fantasy world. In fact, Ray Rice was the only other running back to top 18 fantasy points. Frank Gore got only eight carries in a blowout loss. Reggie Bush was supposed to run all over the Rams, and ended up with a mere 17 yards. Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley and Michael Turner all failed to top even five fantasy points. As a result, while some runners actually deserve to drop, there are few options to move up.

Concerns about Richardson's rib injury drops him a few spots out of the top 10, but not enough for real panic. It was nice to see Raiders underachiever Darren McFadden have a decent game, though. Obviously his ranking is predicated on his major upside, to a degree. Ahmad Bradshaw and Alfred Morris also move up a bit, as do both Buffalo Bills running backs. The older Fred Jackson remains a major threat, and he scored Sunday, but C.J. Spiller is certainly more explosive. If you own both Bills running backs and had room to activate only one, I'd still pick Spiller.

As for those Dallas Cowboys, durability is not a strength for DeMarco Murray or Felix Jones. While each ran well Sunday, Murray left early because of a foot injury, which at this time has him labeled as week to week. Awesome, just what fantasy owners want to hear. Murray was on his way to a big game against what has become a sieve-like Baltimore Ravens run defense, which is what we should attribute Jones' nice second half to. Jones just isn't a great option. Add him because all starting running backs are worth something, but you can see by his meager rank here (in the 40s) that I don't feel he's a great player. Phillip Tanner enters the rankings, just in case; I wrote about him in a sneaky pickups blog entry last month, and it bears repeating that he could certainly matter soon.

Alex Green was moderately successful in replacing Cedric Benson for the Packers. Perhaps the most impressive statistic was his 22 carries, as he didn't share with James Starks. Green moves into flex territory, as does William Powell of the Arizona Cardinals. No, neither fellow is likely to turn into Alfred Morris anytime soon, but there's value there. Richardson's situation in Cleveland also potentially opens the door for Montario Hardesty, who moves into the rankings. Joique Bell of the Lions is also back in the top 60, not because Mikel Leshoure did anything wrong, but rather because of the news that Jahvid Best (concussions) isn't likely to play this season -- which is a shame since he's so talented -- combined with Bell's fine play.


[h=3]Top 60 Wide Receivers[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	A.J. Green	Cin	2
2	Victor Cruz	NYG	3
3	Calvin Johnson	Det	1
4	Percy Harvin	Min	4
5	Brandon Marshall	Chi	5
6	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	8
7	Roddy White	Atl	6
8	Wes Welker	NE	10
9	Julio Jones	Atl	7
10	Demaryius Thomas	Den	9
11	Reggie Wayne	Ind	11
12	Mike Wallace	Pit	12
13	Marques Colston	NO	13
14	Jordy Nelson	GB	19
15	Andre Johnson	Hou	14
16	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	15
17	Vincent Jackson	TB	16
18	Dwayne Bowe	KC	17
19	Antonio Brown	Pit	18
20	Greg Jennings	GB	20
21	Dez Bryant	Dal	28
22	Steve Smith	Car	21
23	Torrey Smith	Bal	22
24	Eric Decker	Den	23
25	Brandon Lloyd	NE	25
26	Steve Johnson	Buf	24
27	Miles Austin	Dal	26
28	James Jones	GB	33
29	DeSean Jackson	Phi	27
30	Jeremy Maclin	Phi	30
31	Kenny Britt	Ten	35
32	Michael Crabtree	SF	29
33	Malcom Floyd	SD	31
34	Lance Moore	NO	32
35	Denarius Moore	Oak	38
36	Mike Williams	TB	44
37	Sidney Rice	Sea	42
38	Brandon LaFell	Car	36
39	Anquan Boldin	Bal	39
40	Donnie Avery	Ind	37
41	Andrew Hawkins	Cin	41
42	Pierre Garcon	Wsh	34
43	Randall Cobb	GB	43
44	Brian Hartline	Mia	40
45	Andre Roberts	Ari	47
46	Leonard Hankerson	Wsh	46
47	Josh Gordon	Cle	60
48	Mario Manningham	SF	48
49	Nate Burleson	Det	NR
50	Devery Henderson	NO	49
51	Robert Meachem	SD	45
52	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	50
53	Davone Bess	Mia	53
54	Domenik Hixon	NYG	54
55	Justin Blackmon	Jac	55
56	Rueben Randle	NYG	56
57	Nate Washington	Ten	57
58	Kendall Wright	Ten	NR
59	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Oak	59
60	Golden Tate	Sea	NR

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

As noted in Sunday's Four Downs blog entry, A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals is a tremendous talent, and it's really no slight to Calvin Johnson that Megatron leaves the top spot. It's mid-October, and Green has better numbers, leading all wide receivers in points by quite a bit, with no signs of a slowdown in sight. There was more top-10 shuffling, as Larry Fitzgerald passes the Falcons duo and the seemingly unstoppable Wes Welker moves up. Whatever was said in Week 2 or 3 about Welker not being a candidate for 100 receptions again was incorrect. He's well on his way.

Jordy Nelson moved up into safer WR2 range, and pretty soon James Jones will have to be put right there with him. It's getting tougher to keep Jones outside the top 20, as he has scored two touchdowns in each of the past three weeks, but the pending return of Greg Jennings, who doesn't drop due to what should be short-term injury, will come into play. Still, Jones' being in the range of Brandon Lloyd and DeSean Jackson is not something many expected two months ago. Lloyd continues to see many targets, but his best game so far is 11 fantasy points. Jones has averaged 16 points over the past three weeks.

Jeremy Maclin of the Eagles had his best game of the season, totaling 19 fantasy points against the Lions, and he gently passes aforementioned teammate DeSean Jackson. If Kenny Britt of the Tennessee Titans can just stay healthy, he'll breeze past both of them and become a WR2. For now, though, Britt is just outside the top 30, and he'll be a nice play this week against the Bills. Similarly, Mike Williams of the Buccaneers had a nice Week 6 and should enjoy the matchup with the New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Unlike Britt, however, it would be a wise time to sell high after that.

Deeper in the wide receiver rankings, Pierre Garcon, Brian Hartline, Robert Meachem, Kevin Ogletree and Titus Young are among those dropping or simply leaving the top 60. Garcon's right foot continues to impede him from suiting up. Hartline went from 19 targets a few weeks ago to a big, fat goose egg Sunday. Awesome. Meachem has been quiet except for the Saints revenge game. Ogletree hasn't mattered much since Week 1. And after watching Young a lot closer this week in Philly, I'm wondering why he made my sleeper list at all. Huge disappointment.

Movin' on up the rankings are Denarius Moore, Sidney Rice, Josh Gordon and Nate Burleson. Moore has scored two of the past three games, and Oakland's schedule looks nice the next month or so. Rice caught the winning score against the Patriots, though even if Russell Wilson is really maturing, the upcoming schedule is not so sweet (49ers, Vikings). Gordon forced his way into relevance with 35 fantasy points in two weeks, though he caught only five passes. And Burleson is just so much more relevant than Young in Detroit.


[h=3]Top 30 Tight Ends[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	1
2	Jimmy Graham	NO	2
3	Rob Gronkowski	NE	3
4	Kyle Rudolph	Min	5
5	Vernon Davis	SF	4
6	Jason Witten	Dal	7
7	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	6
8	Aaron Hernandez	NE	13
9	Antonio Gates	SD	11
10	Owen Daniels	Hou	8
11	Jermaine Gresham	Cin	17
12	Jermichael Finley	GB	9
13	Jared Cook	Ten	10
14	Brent Celek	Phi	12
15	Martellus Bennett	NYG	14
16	Fred Davis	Wsh	16
17	Heath Miller	Pit	21
18	Jacob Tamme	Den	18
19	Coby Fleener	Ind	22
20	Dennis Pitta	Bal	15
21	Greg Olsen	Car	19
22	Scott Chandler	Buf	20
23	Joel Dreessen	Den	23
24	Brandon Myers	Oak	24
25	Anthony Fasano	Mia	28
26	Marcedes Lewis	Jac	25
27	Dustin Keller	NYJ	26
28	Dwayne Allen	Ind	27
29	James Casey	Hou	30
30	Tony Scheffler	Det	NR

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

It was a quiet week for this position, as leader Tony Gonzalez had his worst game of the season (four fantasy points) and was joined in the single-digit club by Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, Brandon Pettigrew and others. If anything, the news of the week here is that Gronkowski has been rejoined by colleague Aaron Hernandez, who hadn't caught a pass since Week 1 due to an ankle injury. Hernandez didn't look 100 percent healthy -- though he did catch a 1-yard scoring pass -- but it's worth noting that Gronkowski doesn't look like himself either, likely due to a sore hip. If you can still sell high on Gronkowski from his record-breaking 2011 campaign, do so.

Four tight ends managed to reach double digits in scoring. Should Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings really move past Gronkowski? Not yet, but he's close. Jermaine Gresham of the Bengals moves into top-10 range. Wait, was there an Antonio Gates sighting on "Monday Night Football"? There sure was! Gates entered Monday with 12 fantasy points all season, then scored a pair of touchdowns Monday. Might not be a bad time to sell high on him as well.

Meanwhile, that awesome start for Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta has turned into numerous quiet weeks. Pitta has five fantasy points overall in his past three games and drops in these rankings again. So does Scott Chandler of the Bills, who has posted two fantasy points the past two weeks combined. A rejuvenated Heath Miller of the Pittsburgh Steelers passes them both.


[h=3]Top 32 Defense/Special Teams[/h]

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<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>	<center> </center>	<center> Rank </center>	Player	<center> Prev. </center>
1	Chicago Bears	2		17	New York Jets	17
2	San Francisco 49ers	1		18	Detroit Lions	16
3	Houston Texans	3		19	Dallas Cowboys	19
4	Seattle Seahawks	4		20	San Diego Chargers	20
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6		21	Cincinnati Bengals	21
6	Green Bay Packers	7		22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22
7	Arizona Cardinals	9		23	Cleveland Browns	23
8	Minnesota Vikings	11		24	Washington Redskins	24
9	New York Giants	12		25	Carolina Panthers	25
10	Atlanta Falcons	10		26	Jacksonville Jaguars	26
11	Baltimore Ravens	5		27	Kansas City Chiefs	27
12	St. Louis Rams	14		28	Indianapolis Colts	28
13	Miami Dolphins	15		29	New Orleans Saints	29
14	New England Patriots	13		30	Tennessee Titans	31
15	Denver Broncos	18		31	Buffalo Bills	30
16	Philadelphia Eagles	8		32	Oakland Raiders	32

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

[h=3]Top 100 Overall[/h]

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>

<center> Ovr. Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos. Rank </center>	<center> Next 3 Weeks </center>	<center> Prev. Rank </center>
1	Arian Foster	Hou	RB1	Bal, bye, Buf	1
2	Ray Rice	Bal	RB2	@Hou, bye, @Cle	2
3	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB3	bye, Oak, @SD	3
4	LeSean McCoy	Phi	RB4	bye, Atl, @NO	4
5	Marshawn Lynch	Sea	RB5	@SF, @Det, Min	5
6	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB6	@Oak, @GB, Det	6
7	A.J. Green	Cin	WR1	Pit, bye, Den	9
8	Adrian Peterson	Min	RB7	Ari, TB, @Sea	7
9	Victor Cruz	NYG	WR2	Wsh, @Dal, Pit	11
10	Frank Gore	SF	RB8	Sea, @Ari, bye	10
11	Calvin Johnson	Det	WR3	@Chi, Sea, @Jac	8
12	Percy Harvin	Min	WR4	Ari, TB, @Sea	12
13	Matt Forte	Chi	RB9	Det, Car, @Ten	13
14	Brandon Marshall	Chi	WR5	Det, Car, @Ten	14
15	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR6	@Min, SF, @GB	21
16	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB1	@StL, Jac, Ari	17
17	Darren McFadden	Oak	RB10	Jac, @KC, TB	26
18	Drew Brees	NO	QB2	@TB, @Den, Phi	19
19	Tom Brady	NE	QB3	NYJ, @StL, bye	20
20	Robert Griffin III	Wsh	QB4	@NYG, @Pit, Car	33
21	Roddy White	Atl	WR7	bye, @Phi, Dal	15
22	Wes Welker	NE	WR8	NYJ, @StL, bye	25
23	Ryan Mathews	SD	RB11	bye, @Cle, KC	27
24	Julio Jones	Atl	WR9	bye, @Phi, Dal	18
25	Cam Newton	Car	QB5	Dal, @Chi, @Wsh	24
26	Trent Richardson	Cle	RB12	@Ind, SD, Bal	16
27	Alfred Morris	Wsh	RB13	@NYG, @Pit, Car	35
28	Demaryius Thomas	Den	WR10	bye, NO, @Cin	23
29	Reggie Wayne	Ind	WR11	Cle, @Ten, Mia	29
30	Tony Gonzalez	Atl	TE1	bye, @Phi, Dal	30
31	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE2	@TB, @Den, Phi	31
32	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE3	NYJ, @StL, bye	32
33	Matt Ryan	Atl	QB6	bye, @Phi, Dal	22
34	Eli Manning	NYG	QB7	Wsh, @Dal, Pit	34
35	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	RB14	Wsh, @Dal, Pit	40
36	Peyton Manning	Den	QB8	bye, NO, @Cin	36
37	Mike Wallace	Pit	WR12	@Cin, Wsh, @NYG	37
38	Philip Rivers	SD	QB9	bye, @Cle, KC	56
39	Stevan Ridley	NE	RB15	NYJ, @StL, bye	28
40	Michael Turner	Atl	RB16	bye, @Phi, Dal	39
41	Marques Colston	NO	WR13	@TB, @Den, Phi	41
42	Doug Martin	TB	RB17	NO, @Min, @Oak	45
43	Jordy Nelson	GB	WR14	@StL, Jac, Ari	55
44	Andre Johnson	Hou	WR15	Bal, bye, Buf	43
45	Darren Sproles	NO	RB18	@TB, @Den, Phi	46
46	C.J. Spiller	Buf	RB19	Ten, bye, @Hou	66
47	Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB20	@Cin, Wsh, @NYG	47
48	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR16	Wsh, @Dal, Pit	44
49	Reggie Bush	Mia	RB21	bye, @NYJ, @Ind	49
50	Willis McGahee	Den	RB22	bye, NO, @Cin	50
51	Vincent Jackson	TB	WR17	NO, @Min, @Oak	48
52	Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR18	bye, Oak, @SD	51
53	Chris Johnson	Ten	RB23	@Buf, Ind, Chi	57
54	Kyle Rudolph	Min	TE4	Ari, TB, @Sea	74
55	Antonio Brown	Pit	WR19	@Cin, Wsh, @NYG	52
56	Matthew Stafford	Det	QB10	@Chi, Sea, @Jac	38
57	DeMarco Murray	Dal	RB24	@Car, NYG, @Atl	42
58	Vernon Davis	SF	TE5	Sea, @Ari, bye	54
59	Greg Jennings	GB	WR20	@StL, Jac, Ari	58
60	Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB11	@Cin, Wsh, @NYG	59
61	Dez Bryant	Dal	WR21	@Car, NYG, @Atl	78
62	Steven Jackson	StL	RB25	GB, NE, bye	53
63	Steve Smith	Car	WR22	Dal, @Chi, @Wsh	60
64	Tony Romo	Dal	QB12	@Car, NYG, @Atl	62
65	Torrey Smith	Bal	WR23	@Hou, bye, @Cle	63
66	Joe Flacco	Bal	QB13	@Hou, bye, @Cle	65
67	Fred Jackson	Buf	RB26	Ten, bye, @Hou	76
68	Michael Vick	Phi	QB14	bye, Atl, @NO	72
69	Eric Decker	Den	WR24	bye, NO, @Cin	64
70	Jason Witten	Dal	TE6	@Car, NYG, @Atl	96
71	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Cin	RB27	Pit, bye, Den	61
72	Mikel Leshoure	Det	RB28	@Chi, Sea, @Jac	69
73	Brandon Lloyd	NE	WR25	NYJ, @StL, bye	71
74	Andrew Luck	Ind	QB15	Cle, @Ten, Mia	67
75	Steve Johnson	Buf	WR26	Ten, bye, @Hou	68
76	Miles Austin	Dal	WR27	@Car, NYG, @Atl	73
77	Shonn Greene	NYJ	RB29	@NE, Mia, bye	81
78	Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB30	Dal, @Chi, @Wsh	77
79	James Jones	GB	WR28	@StL, Jac, Ari	89
80	Michael Bush	Chi	RB31	Det, Car, @Ten	79
81	Brandon Pettigrew	Det	TE7	@Chi, Sea, @Jac	90
82	Alex Green	GB	RB32	@StL, Jac, Ari	NR
83	Aaron Hernandez	NE	TE8	NYJ, @StL, bye	NR
84	Jeremy Maclin	Phi	WR29	bye, Atl, @NO	84
85	DeSean Jackson	Phi	WR30	bye, Atl, @NO	75
86	Antonio Gates	SD	TE9	bye, @Cle, KC	NR
87	Kenny Britt	Ten	WR31	@Buf, Ind, Chi	94
88	Jay Cutler	Chi	QB16	Det, Car, @Ten	80
89	Pierre Thomas	NO	RB35	@TB, @Den, Phi	85
90	Michael Crabtree	SF	WR32	Sea, @Ari, bye	82
91	Mark Ingram	NO	RB33	@TB, @Den, Phi	NR
92	Malcom Floyd	SD	WR33	bye, @Cle, KC	86
93	Donald Brown	Ind	RB34	Cle, @Ten, Mia	70
94	Kendall Hunter	SF	RB36	Sea, @Ari, bye	87
95	Lance Moore	NO	WR34	@TB, @Den, Phi	88
96	DeAngelo Williams	Car	RB37	Dal, @Chi, @Wsh	91
97	Denarius Moore	Oak	WR35	Jac, @KC, TB	99
98	Owen Daniels	Hou	TE10	Bal, bye, Buf	98
99	Andy Dalton	Cin	QB17	Pit, bye, Den	NR

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[HacheMan]

Week 7 ranks reaction: Believe in Dalton

Eric Karabell

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton wasn't on my list of fantasy football sleepers for this season, mainly because his arm seemed only average, he certainly didn't close his rookie season strongly and had a less than ideal schedule, facing the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in a quarter of his games. However, Dalton clearly looks better this season. The Steelers and Ravens aren't as formidable defensively, and with wide receiver A.J. Green becoming fantasy's best, well, I was willing to move Dalton into my top 10 for the Week 7 matchup against the Steelers.

Dalton comes off 381 yards passing with three touchdowns and three interceptions in a loss to the Cleveland Browns. Obviously, there are positives and negatives there. Dalton has been picked off in each game this season, with nine interceptions in all, but he also has nearly the same exact statistics as the New York Giants' Eli Manning, with these guys tied for eighth in all of fantasy, regardless of position, in standard scoring. Manning has one more completion in 10 more attempts, 46 more passing yards and one fewer touchdown pass, but Dalton has one rushing score. Manning consistently gets near-top-five quarterback treatment, and certainly he's more proven. Dalton struggled in Week 1, but since then has averaged 20 points per game -- a pace which, by the way, would easily top what Manning accomplished for the 2011 season.


The presence of the best wide receiver in the land as a colleague surely doesn't hurt, as Dalton and Green help each other. The quarterback doesn't need to be perfect to make plays, which is nice since he's not perfect. A year ago they became the first rookie teammates to top 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 receiving yards, and through six games they are on pace for 4,603 passing yards (with 32 touchdown passes) and 1,675 receiving yards (with 16 receiving scores) respectively. We've discussed elite QB/WR tandems in this blog space, exalting Manning and Victor Cruz, Matt Ryan with his options, and wondered what's been up with Detroit Lions underachiever Matthew Stafford and how it affects Calvin Johnson, but you don't hear Dalton's name bandied about as a top-10 option.

He's not quite yet there for end-of-season purposes, but he shouldn't be too scared of the Steelers, despite two pedestrian efforts last season. These banged-up Steelers are middle of the pack when it comes to allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers, but they haven't exactly faced the top teams, either, with the Jets, Raiders, Eagles (31st in the league in scoring) and Titans since Week 2. Green's performance is a given; his 15-point lead over No. 2 wide receiver Cruz of the Giants is the largest at any position in fantasy, except for the Chicago Bears defense. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been disappointing, and expectations should be modest for Week 7. For Dalton, I'll go out on a limb and say that they shouldn't be.


Quarterback: With six teams on bye, those in deep leagues might find the pickings slim if they didn't prepare ahead. In our Friday rankings update, a backup quarterback will have to be included (Tim Tebow!), because only 24 teams will be left on the schedule, and it won't be Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ers, since his team plays Thursday. I liked Dalton, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Josh Freeman better than the staff average. I think Romo is better than his numbers; the Ravens run defense that was shredded by the Cowboys last week will overcompensate, opening the door for Schaub; and in Freeman's case, the matchup with the New Orleans Saints is similarly attractive. I also have Brandon Weeden four spots better than the average, as Josh Gordon is legit and the Indianapolis Colts defense isn't.

Running back: I sure hope Trent Richardson can play, because if Shonn Greene can score 34 fantasy points on the Colts, what can a healthy Richardson do? I did rank Browns backup Montario Hardesty better than ever (27th) because he should see touches as well. … So Ahmad Bradshaw lit up the 49ers last week, in their place, and now Marshawn Lynch misses the top 10? Well, he made mine. … I felt dirty ranking the average Felix Jones 16th, but clearly the group agreed. I might have underestimated teammate Phillip Tanner at 37. He ended up 33rd. … The Buffalo Bills are fourth-easiest to compile running back points against, but how could I rank Chris Johnson top-10? I considered it, then he ended up 14. He's had nice matchups before, ya know.

Wide receiver: I ranked Hakeem Nicks top-10 on the theory that if he does play, he'll play well … With Andre Johnson, he did see more targets in Week 6, but the Texans were getting blown out. He landed at 20 for me. He's averaging seven fantasy points per week. … Based on what I thought was a modest rank on Devery Henderson versus others, I seem to like him. I don't think the pending Jimmy Graham return hurts Henderson much. … None of us ranked Greg Jennings, but even though Randall Cobb has produced 24 fantasy points in the past fortnight, I couldn't justify a third Packers wide receiver top 30 against a St. Louis Rams defense that is tied with the New York Jets in fewest average fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 7 Value Meter: Foster delivers for fantasy owners

October 18. 2012 - Arian Foster of the Houston Texans is the rare fantasy player who lives up to high expectations. He was drafted as the consensus top running back and through the first six weeks of the season, that's exactly what he's been. It's no surprise he's the top-rated running back in this week's Value Meter rankings, provided by (and updated up until kickoff at) FFToolbox.com.*-check status
SIZZLERS AND FIZZLERS: Who's hot, not in fantasy
QUARTERBACK
1 Drew Brees, N.O. -- at T.B.
2 Aaron Rodgers, G.B. -- at St.L.
3 Tom Brady, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
4 Eli Manning, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
5 Robert Griffin III, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
6 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit. -- at Cin.
7 Tony Romo, Dal. -- at Car.
8 Andrew Luck, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
9 Cam Newton, Car. -- vs. Dal.
10 Matthew Stafford, Det. -- at Chi.
11 Jay Cutler, Chi. -- vs. Det.
12 Joe Flacco, Bal. -- at Hou.
13 Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
14 Matt Schaub, Hou. -- vs. Bal.
15 Andy Dalton, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
16 Carson Palmer, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
17 Christian Ponder, Min. -- vs. Ari.
18 Josh Freeman, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
19 Alex Smith, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
20 Sam Bradford, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
21 John Skelton, Ari. -- at Min.
22 Matt Hasselbeck, Ten. -- at Buf.
23 Russell Wilson, Sea. -- at S.F.
24 Mark Sanchez, N.Y.-J. -- at N.E.
25 Brandon Weeden, Cle. -- at Ind.
RUNNING BACK
1 Arian Foster , Hou. -- vs. Bal.
2 Ray Rice, Bal. -- at Hou.
3 Darren McFadden, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
4 Adrian Peterson, Min. -- vs. Ari.
5 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. -- at Oak.
6 Matt Forte, Chi. -- vs. Det.
7 *Trent Richardson, Cle. -- at Ind.
8 Stevan Ridley, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
9 Alfred Morris, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
10 Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
11 C.J. Spiller, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
12 Felix Jones, Dal. -- at Car.
13 Marshawn Lynch, Sea. -- at S.F.
14 Doug Martin, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
15 Mikel Leshoure, Det. -- at Chi.
16 Chris Johnson, Ten. -- at Buf.
17 Fred Jackson, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
18 Darren Sproles, N.O. -- at T.B.
19 Steven Jackson, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
20 Frank Gore, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
21 Alex Green, G.B. -- at St.L.
22 Shonn Greene, N.Y.-J. -- at N.E.
23 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
24 William Powell, Ari. -- at Min.
25 Vick Ballard, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
26 *Rashard Mendenhall, Pit. -- at Cin.
27 Pierre Thomas, N.O. -- at T.B.
28 DeAngelo Williams, Car. -- vs. Dal.
29 Ben Tate, Hou. -- vs. Bal.
30 Jonathan Stewart, Car. -- vs. Dal.
31 Michael Bush, Chi. -- vs. Det.
32 Isaac Redman, Pit. -- at Cin.
33 Kendall Hunter, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
34 Daryl Richardson, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
35 Mike Tolbert, Car. -- vs. Dal.
36 Montario Hardesty, Cle. -- at Ind.
37 Danny Woodhead, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
38 Mike Goodson, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
39 Mark Ingram, N.O. -- at T.B.
40 LaRod Stephens-Howling, Ari. -- at Min.
41 LeGarrette Blount, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
42 Toby Gerhart, Min. -- vs. Ari.
43 David Wilson, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
44 James Starks, G.B. -- at St.L.
45 Brandon Bolden, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
46 John Kuhn, G.B. -- at St.L.
47 Rashad Jennings, Jac. -- at Oak.
48 Robert Turbin, Sea. -- at S.F.
49 Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle. -- at Ind.
50 Tashard Choice, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
WIDE RECEIVER
1 A.J. Green, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
2 Calvin Johnson, Det. -- at Chi.
3 Victor Cruz, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
4 Percy Harvin, Min. -- vs. Ari.
5 Brandon Marshall, Chi. -- vs. Det.
6 Wes Welker, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
7 Reggie Wayne, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
8 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. -- at Min.
9 *Hakeem Nicks, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
10 Mike Wallace, Pit. -- at Cin.
11 Jordy Nelson, G.B. -- at St.L.
12 Marques Colston, N.O. -- at T.B.
13 Andre Johnson, Hou. -- vs. Bal.
14 Miles Austin, Dal. -- at Car.
15 Dez Bryant, Dal. -- at Car.
16 Vincent Jackson, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
17 Torrey Smith, Bal. -- at Hou.
18 *Lance Moore, N.O. -- at T.B.
19 Steve Smith, Car. -- vs. Dal.
20 Antonio Brown, Pit. -- at Cin.
21 Brandon Lloyd, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
22 Kenny Britt, Ten. -- at Buf.
23 Denarius Moore, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
24 James Jones, G.B. -- at St.L.
25 Michael Crabtree, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
26 Steve Johnson, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
27 Josh Gordon, Cle. -- at Ind.
28 Anquan Boldin, Bal. -- at Hou.
29 Randall Cobb, G.B. -- at St.L.
30 Mike Williams, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
31 Jeremy Kerley, N.Y.-J. -- at N.E.
32 *Pierre Garcon, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
33 Andre Roberts, Ari. -- at Min.
34 Sidney Rice, Sea. -- at S.F.
35 Nate Burleson, Det. -- at Chi.
36 Brandon Gibson, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
37 Donnie Avery, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
38 Kendall Wright, Ten. -- at Buf.
39 Nate Washington, Ten. -- at Buf.
40 Andrew Hawkins, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
41 Chris Givens, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
42 *Mario Manningham, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
43 Brandon LaFell, Car. -- vs. Dal.
44 Devery Henderson, N.O. -- at T.B.
45 Leonard Hankerson, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
46 *Laurent Robinson, Jac. -- at Oak.
47 Justin Blackmon, Jac. -- at Oak.
48 Titus Young, Det. -- at Chi.
49 Donald Jones, Buf. vs. Ten.
50 Darrius Heyward-Bey Oak. -- vs. Jac.
TIGHT END
1 Rob Gronkowski, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
2 *Jimmy Graham, N.O. -- at T.B.
3 Vernon Davis, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
4 Jason Witten, Dal. -- at Car.
5 Aaron Hernandez, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
6 Owen Daniels, Hou. -- vs. Bal.
7 Jermichael Finley, G.B. -- at St.L.
8 Martellus Bennett, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
9 Greg Olsen, Car. -- vs. Dal.
10 Brandon Pettigrew, Det. -- at Chi.
11 Fred Davis, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
12 Scott Chandler, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
13 Kyle Rudolph, Min. -- vs. Ari.
14 Dennis Pitta, Bal. -- at Hou.
15 Jermaine Gresham, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
16 Jared Cook, Ten. -- at Buf.
17 Heath Miller, Pit. -- at Cin.
18 Coby Fleener, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
19 Marcedes Lewis, Jac. -- at Oak.
20 Lance Kendricks, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
21 Kellen Davis, Chi. -- vs. Det.
22 Dustin Keller, N.Y.-J. -- at N.E.
23 Brandon Myers, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
24 Robert Housler, Ari. -- at Min.
25 Craig Stevens, Ten. -- at Buf.
KICKER
1 Jason Hanson, Det. -- at Chi.
2 Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. -- vs. N.Y.-J.
3 Robbie Gould, Chi. -- vs. Det.
4 Greg Zuerlein, St.L. -- vs. G.B.
5 David Akers, S.F. -- vs. Sea.
6 Blair Walsh, Min. -- vs. Ari.
7 Lawrence Tynes, N.Y.-G. -- vs. Was.
8 Shayne Graham, Hou. -- vs. Bal.
9 Justin Tucker, Bal. -- at Hou.
10 Garrett Hartley, N.O. -- at T.B.
11 Sebastian Janikowski, Oak. -- vs. Jac.
12 Mason Crosby, G.B. -- at St.L.
13 Phil Dawson, Cle. -- at Ind.
14 Connor Barth, T.B. -- vs. N.O.
15 Dan Bailey, Dal. -- at Car.
16 Mike Nugent, Cin. -- vs. Pit.
17 Rob Bironas, Ten. -- at Buf.
18 Nick Folk, N.Y.-J. -- at N.E.
19 Shaun Suisham, Pit. -- at Cin.
20 Adam Vinatieri, Ind. -- vs. Cle.
21 Jay Feely, Ari. -- at Min.
22 Rian Lindell, Buf. -- vs. Ten.
23 Steven Hauschka, Sea. -- at S.F.
24 Kai Forbath, Was. -- at N.Y.-G.
25 Josh Scobee, Jac. -- at Oak.
DEFENSE
1 San Francisco -- vs. Sea.
2 Green Bay -- at St.L.
3 Chicago -- vs. Det.
4 Baltimore -- at Hou.
5 Houston -- vs. Bal.
6 New York Giants -- vs. Was.
7 New England -- vs. N.Y.-J.
8 Seattle -- at S.F.
9 Minnesota -- vs. Ari.
10 Buffalo -- vs. Ten.
11 Arizona -- at Min.
12 Dallas -- at Car.
13 Detroit -- at Chi.
14 Cleveland -- at Ind.
15 Cincinnati -- vs. Pit.
16 St. Louis -- vs. G.B.
17 Pittsburgh -- at Cin.
18 New York Jets -- at N.E.
19 New Orleans -- at T.B.
20 Tennessee -- at Buf.
21 Carolina -- vs. Dal.
22 Oakland -- vs. Jac.
23 Washington -- at N.Y.-G.
24 Indianapolis -- vs. Cle.
25 Jacksonville -- at Oak.
26 Tampa Bay -- vs. N.O.

 

[HacheMan]

Running ability makes RGIII top commodity in fantasy

October 18. 2012 - Here are the biggest risers and fallers in the latest FFToolbox.com rankings entering Week 7.VALUE METER: Week 7 fantasy rankings
Sizzlers
QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: While there are injury concerns because of his style of play, it's clear RGIII is the No. 1 player in fantasy football. His unique rushing ability (138 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6) separates him.
RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: The Raiders' offensive catalyst should have no trouble against the Jacksonville Jaguars' 30th-ranked run defense in Week 7.
WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers: Cobb was targeted a season-high 10 times in Week 6, catching seven passes for 102 yards. As long as Greg Jennings remains out, Cobb should play a major role for the Packers.
WR Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns: The former Baylor product's big-play ability is legitimate.
TE Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots: It didn't take long for Hernandez to make an impact in his first game back after missing three weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Fizzlers
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills: Fitzpatrick racked up 12 touchdowns in the first four weeks of the season but has been kept held to fewer than 200 yards and out of the end zone in each of the past two weeks vs. the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.
RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams: Jackson is no longer receiving the lion's share of the carries and has not scored a touchdown since Week 14 of last season.
WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs: This is no knock on Bowe, who has the skills of an elite wide receiver, but the quarterback situation in Kansas City is so bad at the moment that it will be difficult for him to put up the type of numbers his fantasy owners are expecting.
WR Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers: The breakout many fantasy owners envisioned on draft day has yet to materialize and looks more and more unlikely each week.
TE Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens: Pitta's early-season surge appears to have been a mirage.

 

[HacheMan]

Jason Witten back on track as top target

October 18. 2012 - With six weeks worth of fantasy football now in the books, we have a decent amount of statistics to analyze and identify player trends. In particular we're going to identify one guy who's coming around and another whose early season production appears to have been an aberration. Of course, game plan and defensive schemes play a huge factor in weekly production, but one unsung statistic we like to focus on is Targets. Targets are the total number of pass attempts made to a player during a game, which helps us identify usage trends beyond the standard stat line. Going Up: TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
In the first three weeks of the season, Witten had gotten off to a slow start. Coming off a spleen injury that was supposed to have knocked him out at the start of Week One, Witten had seen 19 targets go his way, but he only caught 8 of them; 42% isn't the Witten we're used to. Not to mention, Witten had a terrible case of the drops. All that changed in Week 4 against the Bears, Witten was Tony Romo's favorite target, throwing to him 14 times, with Witten catching 13 for 112 yards and a score. In Week 6, Witten saw 7 targets catching 6 for 68 yards against the Ravens. Now fully healthy, Witten has earned Romo's trust and can safely be moved into every-week TE1 territory. He's my No. 1 ranked tight end going into Week 7.
Going Down: TE Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
Pitta got off to as hot a start as any tight end, including the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Through the first three weeks of the season, Pitta was averaging a healthy 10 targets a game and averaging 63 receiving yards. That all changed when he saw a mere two targets and no catches in Week 4 against the Browns. Since then, Pitta has been averaging between 4-5 targets a game in the last two weeks and hasn't come close to his receiving average. Since Pitta's Week 4 goose egg, WR Anquan Boldin has amassed 28 targets, catching 18, and averaging a whopping 104 receiving yards per contest. Pitta looked like an elite TE1, but he has dropped in the rankings and we just don't know if Joe Flacco will allow him to climb back out. If Pitta doesn't pull it together in Week 7, it's time to make other plans.

 

[HacheMan]

In the name of fun

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

It was an insanely dumb call. It made no sense whatsoever.

That's not me talking. That's everyone who has ever played fantasy football -- or fantasy anything -- talking. It went against everything you've ever learned about fantasy sports. Even my mom, who doesn't play, knows you don't bench Tom Brady for Russell Wilson.

Yet that's just what Mitchell Larsen recently did. Russell Wilson over Tom Brady. And he blamed me for it. And you know what? I couldn't be more proud.

He writes (I've edited it a bit): "This last week I had the decision of starting Tom Brady at Seattle or Russell Wilson versus the Patriots. I am a Seahawks fan, have been going to games since 1995, when I was 7 years old. So of course I was going to this game. Despite all fantasy advice, I knew I was not going to have fun rooting for Brady on my fantasy team yet wanting the Seahawks to win. Matthew, you always preach how fantasy sports is about having fun.

"So I started Wilson, leaving Brady on the bench. It turned out to be a brilliant call, as Wilson not only outscored Brady by three points, but the Seahawks won. I also won my fantasy week. The notion of fantasy sports being for fun gave me a day to really enjoy football and fantasy football a whole lot more."

If you read my ranks last week, I had Brady at No. 7 and Wilson outside the top 20. Had I met Mitchell in person or had he asked me on Twitter or Facebook whom to start, I'd have said Brady without hesitation. As would anyone else. In a vacuum, you're not benching a consensus first-round pick and one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of the past decade for a rookie QB on a run-first team who had scored 10 points total the previous two weeks.

But Mitchell wasn't in a vacuum. He was a lifelong Seahawks fan going to a Seahawks game, and he wanted to root for his guy. And I've got no issue with it. In fact, I applaud it. And not because it worked -- that's nice, but immaterial. Mitchell plays fantasy for fun, and he wanted to have fun Sunday. And he was smart enough to understand that rooting for Brady against his team wouldn't be fun. Good for him.

If my constantly talking about the fact that, at the end of the day, fantasy should be fun above all else gave him the push to do it, even better.

Those who read or listen to me during the fantasy baseball season know that my very first fantasy league is the Fat Dog NL-Only Rotisserie League that I've been playing in since 1984. I fly to Texas for the draft every year, and six original members are still in the league, one of whom is Woody Thompson, beloved owner of the always scrappy Thompson Twins. In 28 seasons of playing fantasy baseball in a 12-man, 25-player-roster NL-only league, Woody has never, ever owned a Dodger. He hates the Dodgers, always has, and never wants to root for a Dodger. I love that.

My first fantasy football league is one with a bunch of college buddies from Syracuse (Go Orange!) that started in 1993, the year after we graduated. I co-own a team with my college roommate (shout-out to new father Chris Lindsay!). The Doug Logan league is a 12-team dynasty league where you can keep any 14 players you want every single year without penalty (doesn't cost a draft pick or anything).

Basically, if you want, you can own a player for his career. As you can imagine, turnover is very slow in a league like that, and there's not a lot on the waiver wire. It mostly comes down to rookies. And because most teams were pretty set at quarterback in this year's draft, we had a choice: Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III.

Most people before the season (and I was among them) said RG3 would have more fantasy value this year but in dynasty leagues you wanted Luck. He was the (slightly) better prospect, was less injury prone and had a better franchise around which to build his career. Hindsight is easy now, but everyone was saying Luck over RG3 in dynasty leagues.

But before I lived in Texas, until the age of 12, I lived in Virginia. I have been a Redskins fan since I was 5 years old. I talked up RG3's fantasy prospects quite a bit in the preseason, but I also noted, "I am not rational when it comes to RG3." And I'd be lying if I said I expected him to be the top scorer in fantasy through six weeks.

But injury-prone, bad franchise or not, I wanted to root for RG3, not only on the field with my Redskins but also for his entire fantasy career. I never even considered Luck, because it's a league I'm in to keep in touch with college friends and give me an excuse to communicate weekly with my good friend.

So, the following is a message to my fellow Logan leaguemates, all of whom read me. Don't bother asking for a trade. Robert Griffin the Third is mine. For life. Gonna really enjoy that league.

Wilson over Brady was a terrible fantasy decision, but it was a fantastic decision to make in the name of "fun." So good for you, Mitchell. I have no doubt that it made the Seahawks win that much more sweet for you.

Look, winning is fun. We all want to win. But let's be honest, there are some ways to win that are just a little more satisfying than others.

Here are the top 10 most fun ways to win, as suggested by my friends on Facebook:

10. The monster performance: Everyone else is junk, but then Sunday night you get six touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. It's like a video game. You can't stop laughing.

9. Your last-second pickup just before kickoff coming up huge -- while your opponent's stud puts up a stinker.

8. Where can I send Elias a thank-you note? You've dealt with the pain of a close loss only to be brought back to life by a late-week stat correction. Even better when you've had to endure two days of trash talk.

7. Everyone, including guys like me, is saying you should play one guy over the other, but you go with the lower-ranked guy because you have a gut feeling. You decided you trust your gut more than you trust me. And it works. Which is awesome. And by the way, it's your team. You should always trust your gut over me or anyone else.

6. Total domination. Everything clicks, you're in massive control the whole way, and you just get to enjoy as every single player, even your kicker, goes off. Victory is never in doubt. You can light the cigar at halftime of the early games.

5. The spot starter or bye week guy that you've been hanging onto all season, just for the one week when your stud is off, has a huge day. Like Josh Freeman did for Drew Brees' owners last week.

4. Thanks to your real-life favorite player. Last week, in our 16-team War Room league, I played Stephania Bell. With Matt Forte and Marques Colston on a bye plus Danny Amendola out, I was hurting given how little depth there is. And Jamaal Charles and Martellus Bennett, also on my team, did nothing. But then my beloved RG3 went out, put up crazy numbers and basically single-handedly allowed me to beat her. And trash-talk her on the podcast. Great.

3. Beating the person who talks the most trash leading up to the game or your most bitter rival in the league.

2. The back-and forth game. Speaking of that War Room league, two weeks ago I was up 20 heading into Sunday night, and Ed Werder had Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson going. (Ed had his own injury/bye issues that week.) Henderson quickly scores, then Meachem. It's a PPR league, so just like that we were tied. Luckily, I had Colston. Meachem scores again, but Colston is matching him blow-for-blow. Ed and I exchanged the lead every three minutes in that game until the middle of the fourth, when Colston scored for the third time. And even then I was on pins and needles in case Meachem got a third. It was nerve-racking, and I loved it.

1. By far, the No. 1 answer on most fun way to win is on "Monday Night Football." Be it by coming from behind, on a big performance or on the very last play, there's nothing quite like a Monday night win. My friend Ken Weitzman sent me a great example: A team is driving late in the game and needs only a field goal to win. You're behind and dead in the water. But then, on a breakaway play, the team scores a touchdown and you have the scoring player. If your opponent has the kicker, even better.

You have an opportunity this week for one of those really fun wins. Six teams are on a bye, and most of them are filled with fantasy studs. Even Kansas City has two legitimate fantasy starters. Chances are you're scrambling this week. You'll have to make some tough calls, play some guys you normally wouldn't and do things that you'd never consider in a typical week. Since you're in a tight spot, why not have fun with it? It is the reason we play.

Love/Hate time now: As always, a "love" does not mean automatic start and a "hate" does not mean automatic bench. This is about where they are ranked this week in comparison to other weeks or players I am higher/lower on than others. Use your brain and my rankings.

Of course, a "'Sup" goes out to my homies John Parolin and the ESPN Stats & Information crew, who tell me the word "homies" has been used in just 3.72 percent of non-Matthew Berry columns since its debut in 1992.

Due to six teams being on a bye this week, the "hates" are particularly thin. This week, it's hard to hate anyone with a pulse, you know?


[h=3]Quarterbacks I Love in Week 7[/h]
Tom Brady, Patriots: I've actually gotten some slightly panicky questions on him. He hasn't topped 20 points this season except once and has just one touchdown pass in three of six games. Dude, or dudette, chill. Your concern is as irrelevant as the word "chill" in the year 2012. In his past three games against the Jets, Brady has 957 yards and six scores. And that was with Darrelle Revis out there. At home, angry after a tough loss, Brady is a top-five guy, no question.

Andrew Luck, Colts: I know, he was bad last week and the Browns have Joe Haden back, but Luck is money at home, with seven total touchdowns and averaging 300 passing yards in three home games this season. The Browns give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Luck is averaging 44 pass attempts a game, the most in the NFL. You throw 44 times against the Browns and good things happen. Magical things. Luck-y things. Yeah, I went there. What of it? Why can't I have fun too? Everyone loves puns. Oh, you don't? Well, [pun redacted].

TMR: "What do you mean, pun redacted! I'm not actually saying the word! It could mean anything."

Editor: "No, Matthew, it's only funny if it means that one thing."

TMR: "I want to fight for it."

Editor: "Fight whom? There's no sympathetic court of appeal here."

TMR: "You all suck. I hate you all. None of you get comedy."

Editor: "I know. It's our mission in life to make you miserable."

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Flacco likes to throw deep. He is among the league leaders in 30-plus-yard plays when using play-action. Why is that important, I'm pretending you asked? Glad you did, I fake answer. It's because of this stat: The Texans allow a league-worst 13.1 yards per attempt and a league-high five 30-plus-yard pass plays on play-action passes. A solid top-12 play this week, Flacco is.

Jay Cutler, Bears: I feel dirty just writing it. But he is off the bye, averaging 18 points a game over his past two and averaging 9.9 yards throwing downfield on the season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes of 20-plus yards than the Detroit Lions. Cutler is a safe bet for 15 points or so with upside for more.

Matt Hasselbeck, Titans: Double-digit fantasy points in two straight games, Kenny Britt is back (for now), Chris Johnson looks useable again, and it's not as if the Titans or the Bills are going to stop anyone, so this could turn into a shootout. Available in 89 percent of leagues, if you need a bye week fill-in with a good shot at 12-15 points, Hasselbeck is your guy against a defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.

If you're desperate: It's not as if Ryan Fitzpatrick is facing a great defense either. ... Mark Sanchez is going to have to throw against the Patriots to keep up, and there's the whole "If Russell Wilson can do it" rule. The Sanchize does have at least nine points in every game this season but one.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 7[/h]Matt Schaub, Texans: Another stop me if you've heard this one. Houston runs. A lot. Check this out: The Ravens rank 24th in the NFL this season in yards per rush allowed between the tackles. And that was before their entire defense got injured. Yes, the Lardarius Webb injury hurts the secondary, but the Texans are going to be so effective running the ball in this game that Schaub won't be passing that much. One touchdown or fewer in four of six games this season, he is not a top-10 play this week, despite the nice matchup.

Josh Freeman, Buccaneers: The most obvious call that could blow up in my face, I'm putting him here because I assume most people see New Orleans and think he is a no-brainer. I have him outside my top 15 on somewhat of a gut call. The Saints have had two weeks to prepare, they may get Jonathan Vilma back, and I feel the Bucs will try to run a lot (and be successful at it) to try and slow down the game and keep Brees & Co. on the sideline. Keep in mind the Bucs have the second-fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Freeman will be OK, but I'm not seeing a huge game like last week.

Alex Smith, 49ers: Seattle good. Good Seattle. Ungh. Seattle. Thus concludes today's episode of Caveman Fantasy Analysis.

Philip Rivers, Chargers: I know he's on a bye this week. Just on principle.


[h=3]Running Backs I Love in Week 7[/h]
Trent Richardson, Browns: Not worried about the injury.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings: He has gone five games without a touchdown. Think he's due? Cause I sure do. Especially against a Cardinals team that has allowed three scores to opposing running backs the past three weeks.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers: See Freeman, Josh. Martin seemed to get back on track last week, and no team allows more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the New Orleans Saints.

Fred Jackson, Bills: C.J. Spiller has more big-play upside and I have Spiller ranked higher, but the reason I'm mentioning Jackson is that in the past two weeks, with both Jackson and Spiller active, it was F Jax who got the team's only rush from inside the 5-yard line (a 1-yard touchdown last week against the Cards). The Titans have allowed a league-high seven touchdown runs at or inside the 5-yard line this season.

Felix Jones, Cowboys: Remember that dirty feeling I had after recommending Cutler? I went on a shame spiral, and now I'm binge-recommending Jones. Ugh. But hey, he is going to get 65 percent of the running back touches, if not more. The Panthers have allowed 2.3 yards after contact per rush this season on runs inside the tackles, worst in the NFL, and 4.47 yards total per rush inside the tackles, eighth worst in the league. Jones is averaging five yards a carry this season. Now someone find me an industrial-strength loofah. Must wash. Forever unclean.

If you're desperate: Yeah, I'm back on the Vick Ballard bandwagon. The Colts fell behind last week and had to bail on the run. That won't happen this week, and teams can run on the Browns. ... As much as I talked up Jones, he is not going to get all the work, so Phillip Tanner becomes an interesting flex in deeper leagues thanks to a good matchup and maybe 10 touches or so coming his way. ... Everything I said about Martin also applies to LeGarrette Blount, who has scored in two straight weeks. ... If Ahmad Bradshaw misses the game -- he didn't practice Wednesday -- Andre Brown and David Wilson would be interesting flex plays against the Redskins.


[h=3]Running Backs I Hate in Week 7[/h]
Frank Gore, 49ers: Just eight carries last week, down from 14 the week before, down from 20 the week before that. Seattle is a tough defense, and Joe Staley is banged up. I have Gore outside my top 15 this week, unlike the rest of my fellow rankers.

Shonn Greene, Jets: Don't get cute. The Patriots defense has the fourth-best yards per rush allowed average (3.4) in the league and is allowing a league-best 1.05 yards after contact per rush. It just shut down Marshawn Lynch, who is -- how do I phrase this? -- much better at football than Greene.

Mikel Leshoure, Lions: Even with all the byes and the job all to himself, it's hard to trust LeShoure against a Bears defense that held DeMarco Murray to 24 yards rushing and Maurice Jones-Drew to 56 yards in its past two games. Leshoure is nothing better than a flex play this week.


[h=3]Wide Receivers I Love in Week 7[/h]
Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Two games, 28 targets. Hold on, Poindexter. You can put down that calculator. I'll do the math for you. That's an average of 14 targets a game. Fourteen. Against the Panthers 19th-ranked pass defense, that'll be more than enough to do some damage.

Steve Johnson, Bills: With at least six receptions in three of his past four, it's a great matchup with Tennessee. And come on, I just did a whole intro about fun. No way I'm not including Mr. Why So Serious?

Antonio Brown, Steelers: The targets are there; the production will follow. Ignore last week.

Denarius Moore, Raiders: Scores in two of the last three, he leads the Raiders in targets despite missing a game. The Jaguars have allowed a whopping 616 yards and four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the past three weeks. Plus, it's always fun to say "Denarius? I hardly knew her!" While they try to figure that out, Moore will have flown by, scoring on a long touchdown.

Randall Cobb, Packers: A week after leading the Packers in total yards from scrimmage after Cedric Benson's injury, Cobb goes out and gets a seven-for-102. He is fifth in the NFL among wideouts in yards after the catch, and I like his speed on the turf in St. Louis.

Donnie Avery, Colts: Only Reggie Wayne has more targets for the Colts than Avery. Then you look at Joe Haden for the Browns who, despite playing only two games this season, is just one defended or intercepted pass below the league leaders. One. With Haden all over Wayne, I expect even more love for Avery in what should be a high-scoring game for Indy.

If you're desperate: Mike Williams has 100 yards or a touchdown in four of six games this season, and there's a good chance I'm going to be wrong on Freeman. ... Chris Givens has at least 50 yards in three straight games. ... With Hakeem Nicks still not 100 percent, it's worth noting that Domenik Hixon leads New York in targets and catches on throws at least 15 yards downfield. The Redskins have allowed an NFL-high 34 completions on throws at least 15 yards downfield this season.


[h=3]Wide Receivers I Hate in Week 7[/h]Steve Smith, Panthers: Hasn't scored yet this season, single-digit fantasy points in three straight games and the Cowboys, believe it or not, have the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. With Ryan Kalil out for the season, the Panthers offensive line is having to change a lot of positions, and that's not ideal for Cam Newton to get time and let deep plays with Smith develop. Get the sense this is a dump-off and tuck-and-run kind of game for Cam. Smith is a low-end No. 2 this week, even with all the byes.

Michael Crabtree, 49ers: See Gore, Frank. Told you the hate was light this week. Fun!


[h=3]Tight Ends I Love in Week 7[/h]
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: Just putting him here since he showed up on the injury report. I'm not worried. He is going to be just fine, especially against a Jets team giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Scott Chandler, Bills: Insert tight end playing Titans here. As good a bet to score a touchdown this week as any player on the board. The tight end on the other side, Jared Cook, also has a pretty sweet matchup.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Only putting him here because he is still available in 25 percent of leagues. He is third in tight end scoring. Third. Through six weeks. What are you waiting for?

Owen Daniels, Texans: Leads the Texans in every major receiving category. Tied for fourth-most TE receptions and second-most TE receiving yards this season.

If you're desperate: Brandon Myers has at least five points in four of five games this season. ... I've already mentioned how much I expect Luck to throw. Dwayne Allen has two scores in four games and is tied with Wayne for the team lead in targets inside an opponent's 10-yard line.


[h=3]Tight Ends I Hate in Week 7[/h]
Jermichael Finley, Packers: Remember when he was going to be the next big thing? That got dropped pretty quick. Hahahahahahahaha. See what I did there? Dropped? Hoo boy! Oh yeah. Hahahahaha. What? [pun redacted]

Again? Come on! Cant' a TMR have a little fun around here?

Fred Davis, Redskins: Hasn't scored this season, which is interesting, since the Giants haven't allowed a tight end to score this season. RG3 is too much of a red zone threat running to count on Davis being anything more than a second-tier tight end this week.


[h=3]Defenses I Love in Week 7[/h]
Green Bay Packers: Only two teams have allowed more sacks than the St. Louis Rams. The Packers lead the NFL with 21 sacks. Sometimes you don't have to overthink it.

Minnesota Vikings: The sixth-highest scoring defense in fantasy is still available in 25 percent of ESPN.com leagues and is home to a Cardinals team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

If you're desperate: The Oakland Raiders played very well last week against a very good Falcons team. Now they are at home to a, well, not as good Jaguars team.


[h=3]Defenses I Hate in Week 7[/h]
Baltimore Ravens: Seriously, do I even need to write something here?

New York Jets: Yeah, same as Greene. Don't get cute after last week. Home to a rookie QB isn't the same as on the road in New England.

That's all we have time for this week. Here's hoping your pickups this week lead to a top-10 fun win.

 

[HacheMan]

Flex rankings: Forte, McFadden in top 10

Eric Karabell

Welcome to Thursday, the day the NFL games begin for the week. It's Seahawks-49ers tonight, so get those lineups set. Thursday is also the day we release our weekly flex rankings, combining the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends -- quite a few tight ends make this list, actually -- into one tidy top-100 package.

Six teams are on bye this week. As such, I expected that would make filling out the top 100 to be a difficult process, but it wasn't. In fact, there are still decent options for deeper formats that didn't make the top 100. Anyway, these are your teams, so make your own decisions, but if you need some help and the list below doesn't settle things, then check out the Week 7 staff rankings, which you can sort individually by expert, and perhaps your question was answered either in my Wednesday chat wrap or will be by my colleagues today or tomorrow. You can also find me on Twitter (I am @karabellespn).

Good luck in Week 7 and beyond!
1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Has scored a touchdown in 10 consecutive games, and we all saw what an average running game (the Cowboys') did to the Ravens last week. Huge game coming!
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Seems like a wise time to trade for him. He's healthy, his bye week has passed, and now that the passing game is at least some threat, that helps MJD.
3. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
4. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Just because the Eagles didn't run on the Lions last week hardly means the Bears won't.
5. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Pretty much unstoppable at this point.
6. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Carried the ball 27 times last week, so I'm assuming he's healthy.
7. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
8. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Hasn't topped 12 fantasy points since Week 1, but then again, eight points was his worst game. He's a weekly play.
9. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns: Sure hope he plays, because it's a great matchup.
10. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: With Bradshaw, I don't worry about missed practices.
11. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: If you're going to trade him, get full value. He's not struggling the same way Matthew Stafford is.
12. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Even if Megatron's quarterback is struggling, note how well Fitzgerald is able to overcome that.
13. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Personally, the matchup doesn't worry me. That said, Russell Wilson won't spread the field the way Eli Manning did, which opened things up for Bradshaw last week.
14. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: A weekly play, at this point.
15. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
16. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: I still laugh at those who thought he was toast a month ago, and couldn't wait to let me know it.
17. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
18. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears
19. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts
20. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Should rip up the Saints. Didn't we think he'd have more than 10 receptions at this point? What is he, Michael Turner? C'mon, Josh Freeman!
21. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
22. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
23. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: No run defense has been as friendly in fantasy as Buffalo's. You know what? Johnson has had nice matchups before. Get excited, but not too excited.
24. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: He just practiced for the first time this season on a Wednesday. Wow. I think that means he's playing.
25. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: Spiller owners shouldn't complain that he doesn't get all the carries when he's putting up suitable numbers regardless.
26. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Another great matchup, and he has been doing his job.
27. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
28. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: I think Aaron Rodgers wanted to make a point by getting him more involved last week.
29. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Jones, DeMarco Murray's replacement, disappoints us all. Jones has just tortured us in the past. But the matchup and opportunity dictate a nice rank.
30. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: And still, Jones gets the better rank over Dez. It's the difference in 20 touches over maybe 10.
31. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
32. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: If the team lets him play, then I do trust he's healthy enough from his ankle sprain to produce the numbers we expect.
33. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints
34. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
35. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
36. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: Last reached double digits in Week 2, so I'm not expecting a big game, even though the Steelers no longer have a dominant defense.
37. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Hasn't been practicing this week because of an Achilles injury, and this is the Sunday night game. Plan ahead earlier Sunday, just in case.
38. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
39. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
40. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: I doubt the Bills alter this two-series on, two-series off thing with Jackson and Spiller since both are running well.
41. James Jones, WR, Packers: Hmm, I'll take two more touchdowns this week, please! (But I wouldn't expect it.)
42. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: I don't believe the Rams' backfield is a 50-50 timeshare.
43. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
44. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Some love him this week, but if his name was Jeremy Kerley or Malcom Floyd, two fellas he's tied with in fantasy scoring this year, would you still play him every week?
45. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: A week ago, I would have said Smith and Joe Flacco would be hard-pressed to rip the Texans' pass D. Then Aaron Rodgers threw six touchdown passes against it.
46. Alex Green, RB, Packers: He's the guy to trust in that Packers backfield.
47. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: Go ahead and trust him if you want, but when he's back under five fantasy points per week, we'll look at his 34-point explosion against the Colts for what it was.
48. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: Gets so many targets you'd think at some point things will improve. I would buy low on Lloyd.
49. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers: The matchup suggests another nice game is pending. And he's actually had a decent season.
50. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
51. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: Getting close to where we'll need to consider him a top-20 wide receiver.
52. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans
53. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
54. Vick Ballard, RB, Colts: His numbers were down last week because it was a blowout. I doubt the Colts get blown out this week.
55. William Powell, RB, Cardinals
56. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
57. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots
58. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
59. Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns: Move him up 20 spots if Richardson can't play.
60. Nate Washington, WR, Titans
61. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: I gotta rank him, but I sure don't gotta play him.
62. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
63. Lance Moore, WR, Saints
64. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers: Probably deserves better based on the past two weeks, but I also don't see Rodgers throwing six touchdown passes again this week.
65. Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets: I don't think the Jets will get blown out by the Patriots.
66. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: I bet most people have no idea he has been a top-three tight end so far.
67. Donnie Avery, WR, Colts: Important game for him since he has been quiet of late. Might not be ranked here next week if he's quiet again.
68. Michael Bush, RB, Bears
69. Nate Burleson, WR, Lions: Not a nice matchup for Stafford and the Lions against the Bears. Not at all.
70. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans: Kind of under the radar the past few weeks, and becoming underrated.
71. Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals: Four fantasy points the past two games, for those who thought he was headed for stardom before that.
72. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: He's probably due to taper off big-time, but this is a nice matchup and opponents haven't been covering him well.
73. Heath Miller, TE, Steelers
74. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
75. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
76. Domenik Hixon, WR, Giants: Nicks insurance.
77. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers: Could either start at running back or miss the game. Doesn't seem like something we'd want to deal with.
78. Devery Henderson, WR, Saints
79. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks: I've seen him ranked much better, but it was still only one play. And wouldn't you think the 49ers defense has something to prove this week?
80. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals
81. Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots
82. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams: Probably the last time he's ranked this low if the Rams keep giving him significant work.
83. Brandon Gibson, WR, Rams
84. Stephen Hill, WR, Jets: Opportunity is there for him to emerge.
85. Scott Chandler, TE, Bills
86. LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB, Cardinals: He's just not every-down running back material.
87. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Buccaneers: Neither is he, though he has been busier of late.
88. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders
89. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
90. Phillip Tanner, RB, Cowboys: Definitely a name to remember, because the guy atop the depth chart is "week to week" and the next guy just isn't very good. Or durable, for that matter.
91. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
92. Chris Givens, WR, Rams: In two years is he Mike Wallace? I'm serious. He has caught a 50-yarder in three consecutive weeks. Raw but interesting prospect.
93. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: Incredibly, 21 of his 25 fantasy points this season came in one stinkin' game. The Texans had better not wear out Foster, but it's trending that way.
94. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: The best, most consistent option Robert Griffin III has, really.
95. Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers
96. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Eleven of his 15 fantasy points for the season came in one game. I wouldn't laugh if you simply cut him.
97. Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots: I wouldn't cut Bolden yet.
98. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks
99. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: Deep sleeper about to get more work.
100. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Yes, he's still in the league.
Others: Joique Bell, RB, Lions; Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions; Mario Manningham, WR, 49ers; Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals; Justin Forsett, RB, Texans; Mike Goodson, RB, Raiders; David Wilson, RB, Giants; Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers; Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars; Jamie Harper, RB, Titans; James Starks, RB, Packers; Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars; Cedric Peerman, RB, Bengals; Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Week 7 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Sit Shonn Greene and Seattle WRs; start Doug Martin and Ryan Fitzpatrick[/h]By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders

Last week, I reintroduced a theory of bye week trading that states that the best strategy for getting rid of your bye week problem is to trade it to the owner you play on that bye week. Navigating through your bye weeks requires a bit of cleverness, and that's about as clever a strategy as it gets. Today, I'm going to give you another bit of bye week scheming related to the two forgotten positions: kickers and defenses.

Scoring for these positions is notoriously random, which is why we don't typically deal with them in this piece. And in the context of bye weeks, defenses and (especially) kickers are so interchangeable that finding a viable replacement starter is usually only one free-agent transaction away.

I've identified one group of kickers and defenses with tough remaining schedules and their bye weeks ahead, along with a second group with easy schedules and their bye week behind them. You'll want to trade for the latter, and trade away the former if you have them.

Kickers and defenses to acquire

With their bye week in the rearview mirror, and an easy schedule over the next five weeks, perhaps no NFL team is in a better situation for the fantasy prospects of their kicker and defense than the Chicago Bears. Using a standard scoring system, Robbie Gould has the second-easiest schedule in that time frame, and over the next three weeks will face the worst three teams in fantasy points allowed to kickers (Detroit, Carolina and Tennessee). Chicago's defense doesn't have that favorable a slate, but it is the fifth-easiest overall, with Detroit and Tennessee also being among the bottom eight in terms of fantasy points allowed to defenses.

The other kicker to target is Tampa Bay's Connor Barth. The Buccaneers had their bye in Week 5, and Barth's upcoming schedule is the fourth easiest, with games over the next five weeks against the worst (Carolina), fourth-worst (Oakland) and fifth-worst (New Orleans) teams in kicker points allowed.

Kickers and defenses to dump

Two kickers highly regarded in fantasy circles that you should try to get rid of ASAP reside in the NFC West: David Akers and Greg Zuerlein. Obviously, both have their bye weeks ahead of them (Week 9), which means you'll be losing a game's worth of productivity from them in the near future. What's worse, over the next five weeks, Akers' schedule is the toughest and Zuerlein's is the seventh-toughest in terms of fantasy points allowed to kickers.

The Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles are starting-caliber defenses to jettison based on a remaining bye and a tough upcoming schedule. The Ravens and Eagles, in particular, are particularly sell-worthy given the injury- and coaching-related events of the past few days. Nothing of that sort has transpired with the Cardinals, but they do face three notoriously ball-secure offenses before their Week 10 bye (Minnesota, San Francisco and Green Bay), as well as the high-scoring Atlanta Falcons in Week 11.

On to the best and worst matchups for remaining players in Week 7:
<offer>
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Ryan Fitzpatrick (plus-4 points)
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts
QB	OAK	Carson Palmer	+5
QB	BUF	Ryan Fitzpatrick	+4
QB	TB	Josh Freeman	+4
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	+4
RB	OAK	Darren McFadden	+3
RB	TB	Doug Martin	+3
QB	NYJ	Mark Sanchez	+2
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	+2
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	+2
QB	JAC	Blaine Gabbert	+2
WR	OAK	Denarius Moore	+2
WR	TB	Mike Williams	+2
WR	BUF	Steve Johnson	+1
RB	PIT	Rashard Mendenhall	+1
RB	TEN	Chris Johnson	+1
RB	PIT	Isaac Redman	+1
TE	BUF	Scott Chandler	+1
WR	CHI	Alshon Jeffery	+1
WR	OAK	Darrius Heyward-Bey	+1
WR	BUF	Donald Jones	+1
TE	OAK	Brandon Myers	+1
WR	CIN	Andrew Hawkins	+1
TE	CIN	Jermaine Gresham	+1
WR	IND	Donnie Avery	+1
WR	IND	T.Y. Hilton	+1
WR	TB	Tiquan Underwood	+1
WR	CHI	Devin Hester	+1
WR	BUF	T.J. Graham	+1
TE	CHI	Kellen Davis	+1
TE	IND	Dwayne Allen	+1

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

<!-- end inline 1 -->After being suffocated by Arizona and San Francisco the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick will finally get a breath of fresh air with a matchup at home against Tennessee on Sunday. The Titans are currently ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They were able to limit Ben Roethlisberger to only one passing touchdown in Week 6, but Tennessee has given up multiple touchdowns in every other game, is allowing a 71.9 percent completion percentage and -- oh by the way -- Roethlisberger still posted a 20-point game thanks to 363 passing yards.

Matthew Stafford (minus-5 points)

Stafford had a much better game against the Eagles than we predicted last week (wish we would have known Philadelphia would play poorly enough to immediately fire its defensive coordinator). I don't think that's going to be happening with Stafford's Week 7 opponent, the Bears, who rank first in pass defense DVOA and give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Although it's true Chicago has benefited from facing the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Sam Bradford, it also has limited Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo to an average of 11.4 points.

[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
Doug Martin (plus-3 points)

We recommended Martin last week despite coming off consecutive bad performances, and he came through, scoring four points more than his average heading into the game. Things should go from good to great in his Week 7 home game against the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs. There was some concern that LeGarrette Blount would begin eating more and more into Martin's playing time, but Blount ended up playing only 34 percent of the team's offensive snaps last week, most of which came in garbage time.

Rashard Mendenhall (plus-1 point) and Isaac Redman (plus-1 point)

Both of these backs are banged up, but at the time of this writing both seem on track to play in Week 7. In his first game back two weeks ago, Mendenhall had over 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. With Mendenhall seeing limited action last week because of a sore Achilles tendon, Redman went for over 100 all-purpose yards in his stead. The Cincinnati Bengals are ranked 31st in run defense DVOA, and have given up the ninth-most points to opposing running backs, so whichever of Pittsburgh's backs gets the bulk of touches should be able to keep his hot streak alive.

Shonn Greene (minus-3 points)

Greene is our Fall Back to Earth player of the week. After scoring a total of 30.5 fantasy points in the first five games of 2012, Greene erupted for 34.1 against the Colts in Week 6. He did appear in last week's table of favorable matchups, but scoring 27.1 points above his average was a tad ridiculous. That performance came at home against the 21st-ranked run defense according to DVOA, but this week finds Greene on the road against the fifth-ranked New England Patriots run defense. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict fewer than 34 points for him this week, but we don't even think he'll manage double-digits in a standard scoring system.

William Powell (minus-1 point)

Powell barely missed being in the favorable matchups table in Week 6, but he nevertheless deserves an honorable mention as close runner-up to Greene for the Fall Back to Earth player of the week. Last week the Buffalo Bills were dead last in run defense DVOA heading into the game, and Powell posted a respectable 7.8 fantasy points. It would have been much more if not for Arizona giving LaRod Stephens-Howling 11 carries for some reason. Unfortunately, now that Powell has proved he's the much better option, his first game as the clear No. 1 back comes against a Minnesota Vikings run defense that ranks second in DVOA and fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs.

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Denarius Moore (plus-2 points)
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	-5
QB	BAL	Joe Flacco	-5
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	-4
QB	SF	Alex Smith	-3
RB	NYJ	Shonn Greene	-3
RB	NO	Darren Sproles	-2
RB	NO	Pierre Thomas	-2
RB	DET	Mikel Leshoure	-2
RB	ARI	William Powell	-1
WR	BAL	Torrey Smith	-1
WR	GB	James Jones	-1
RB	DET	Joique Bell	-1
WR	BAL	Anquan Boldin	-1
WR	GB	Randall Cobb	-1
WR	DET	Nate Burleson	-1
WR	SEA	Sidney Rice	-1
WR	SEA	Golden Tate	-1
TE	DET	Brandon Pettigrew	-1
TE	BAL	Dennis Pitta	-1
TE	GB	Jermichael Finley	-1
WR	DET	Titus Young	-1

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

<!-- end inline 2 -->The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 30th according to pass defense DVOA, and have had a terrible time covering No. 1 wide receivers in their past two games: A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall combined for 18 catches, 261 yards and two touchdowns. Moore isn't in their league yet as a receiver, but he did score 16.4 points last week against the Atlanta Falcons' fourth-ranked pass defense.

Mike Williams (plus-2 points)

Tampa Bay's Williams is the poster child for statistical cliches among wide receivers. Last year, he suffered from the dreaded sophomore slump. This year, he's obliging devotees of the third-year wide receiver theory. (We'll just ignore his uncharacteristically productive rookie year so my argument works.) In Week 6, he did what just about everyone does against the Kansas City Chiefs, i.e., score a ton of points. In Week 7, he should do the same against New Orleans, which is one of the few defenses worse than Kansas City's according to DVOA.

James Jones (minus-1 point) and Randall Cobb (minus-1 point)

Over the course of three hours Sunday night, the Texans went from second to 16th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and saw their pass defense DVOA decrease by 20 percentage points. (Believe me, that's a huge one-week drop.) Given that we recommended against these same receivers going into the game, apologies are definitely in order. Hopefully, the St. Louis Rams' fourth-ranked pass defense (second in fantasy points allowed to wideouts) will get us back into your good graces this week. If not, we promise to never go against the Packers' passing game again.

Sidney Rice (minus-1 point) and Golden Tate (minus-1 point)

No defense has allowed fewer fantasy points to wideouts than the San Francisco 49ers. That might be surprising given their awful game against the New York Giants, but lost in the drubbing was the fact that Giants receivers combined for only 13 catches and 180 yards. Nearly half of their fantasy production (11.8 of 24.0 points) came from Victor Cruz matched up in the slot against Carlos Rogers. Rogers has repeatedly been torched in that position, so Seattle will probably look to exploit him rather than bothering with Rice and Tate on the outside. So why are we not recommending Doug Baldwin? Well, aside from the cold, statistical analysis that goes into our plus-minus projections, it's important to note that he's not Cruz (or Percy Harvin).

[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
Scott Chandler (plus-1 point)

Chandler figures to be the main beneficiary of Fitzpatrick's likely exploits against Tennessee this week. Along with their aforementioned No. 32 ranking in pass defense DVOA, the Titans rank 27th in DVOA on passes to tight ends, and have given up the most fantasy points to the position as well. Chandler isn't as good as some of the other tight ends Tennessee has faced, but, remember, they're the team that allowed Dante Rosario to score three touchdowns.

Jermaine Gresham (plus-1 point)

Despite being the 10th-highest scoring tight end in fantasy football this season, Gresham's production thus far has had an air of disappointment. He'll get you a steady 10 points every week, but never seems to post a massive score. That might change this week if the stats are prophetic. Pittsburgh's pass defense has an uncharacteristic No. 23 ranking in pass defense DVOA, and, with Troy Polamalu hampered by injury, ranks 30th in DVOA on passes to tight ends; Polamalu has already been ruled out for Week 7.

Finally, as a service to interested readers, starting today I'm going to give you the list of the week's elite fantasy players that I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but can see how this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 7 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

POS	Team	Player	Proj	POS	Team	Player	Proj
QB	CAR	Cam Newton	+1	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	+2
QB	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	0	WR	TB	Vincent Jackson	+2
QB	NE	Tom Brady	0	WR	CIN	A.J. Green	+2
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin	-1	WR	IND	Reggie Wayne	+1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	-3	WR	NYG	Victor Cruz	+1
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	-7	WR	NYG	Hakeem Nicks	+1
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	+2	WR	NE	Wes Welker	+1
RB	NE	Stevan Ridley	+2	WR	MIN	Percy Harvin	+1
RB	HOU	Arian Foster	+1	WR	PIT	Mike Wallace	0
RB	NYG	Ahmad Bradshaw	0	WR	NO	Marques Colston	-1
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	0	WR	GB	Jordy Nelson	-1
RB	CLE	Trent Richardson	0	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	-1
RB	JAC	Maurice Jones-Drew	0	TE	HOU	Owen Daniels	0
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	0	TE	NE	Rob Gronkowski	0
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	0	TE	MIN	Kyle Rudolph	0
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	0	TE	SF	Vernon Davis	0
RB	SF	Frank Gore	-2	TE	PIT	Heath Miller	0
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	-3	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	-1

<thead>
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</tbody>

</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Goal-Line Grid

By Fantasy Insider | ESPN.com

RECENT/SEASON TOTALS | Weeks 1-4 <!-- | Weeks 5-8 | Weeks 9-12 | Weeks 13-16--><!-- end inline 1 -->

	Player	<center>Week 4</center>	<center>Week 5</center>	<center>Week 6</center>	<center>SEASON TOTAL</center>
Arizona Cardinals	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Ryan Williams	15	1	0	15	0	0	--	--	--	68	4	0
Beanie Wells	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	30	1	0
L. Stephens-Howling	--	--	--	--	--	--	12	0	0	27	1	1
William Powell	4	0	0	5	0	0	14	0	0	23	0	0
Kevin Kolb	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	16	1	1
Notes: Williams (shoulder) placed on IR before Week 6; Wells (toe) placed on "designated for return" IR before Week 4; Stephens-Howling (hip) was inactive Weeks 4-5
Atlanta Falcons	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Michael Turner	18	1	0	22	0	0	12	2	0	97	6	1
Jacquizz Rodgers	10	0	0	5	0	0	6	0	0	49	0	0
Matt Ryan	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	15	1	1
Jason Snelling	4	0	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	14	1	0
Baltimore Ravens	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Ray Rice	29	2	0	20	0	0	20	3	2	134	6	3
Bernard Pierce	6	0	0	2	0	0	5	0	0	25	0	0
Vonta Leach	3	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	15	1	1
Joe Flacco	2	1	1	3	0	0	2	0	0	11	1	1
Buffalo Bills	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	C.J. Spiller	10	1	0	8	0	0	17	0	0	76	2	1
Fred Jackson	16	0	0	10	0	0	22	1	1	54	1	1
Tashard Choice	3	0	0	--	--	--	0	0	0	41	2	0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	20	3	0
Johnny White	1	0	0	--	--	--	--	--	--	8	0	0
Notes: White was released following Week 5
Carolina Panthers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	DeAngelo Williams	13	0	0	7	1	0	bye	54	4	1
Cam Newton	9	1	1	7	0	0	bye	40	7	3
Jonathan Stewart	11	0	0	9	0	0	bye	32	1	0
Mike Tolbert	7	0	0	2	0	0	bye	24	1	1
Chicago Bears	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Matt Forte	14	1	0	26	0	0	bye	73	1	0
Michael Bush	11	0	0	7	0	0	bye	64	4	3
Kahlil Bell	2	0	0	--	--	--	bye	13	0	0
Armando Allen	0	0	0	5	0	0	bye	7	0	0
Notes: Bell was inactive Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	29	3	0	11	0	0	17	0	0	119	4	1
Andy Dalton	6	1	1	4	1	0	2	0	0	20	2	1
Cedric Peerman	1	0	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	14	0	0
Bernard Scott	--	--	--	5	1	0	--	--	--	8	1	0
Chris Pressley	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
Notes: Scott (knee) placed on IR following Week 5
Cleveland Browns	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Trent Richardson	19	1	1	24	0	0	16	0	0	125	1	1
Chris Ogbonnaya	5	0	0	3	0	0	3	0	0	21	0	0
Montario Hardesty	--	--	--	0	0	0	16	2	1	16	2	1
Notes: Hardesty did not play Week 4
Dallas Cowboys	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	DeMarco Murray	19	0	0	bye	15	0	0	94	0	0
Felix Jones	1	0	0	bye	20	0	0	32	0	0
Tony Romo	1	0	0	bye	0	0	0	13	0	0
Phillip Tanner	3	0	0	bye	9	0	0	12	0	0
Denver Broncos	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Willis McGahee	25	3	1	20	1	0	21	0	0	121	8	3
Lance Ball	9	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	25	2	0
Ronnie Hillman	12	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0	21	0	0
Knowshon Moreno	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	9	0	0
Notes: Moreno (healthy scratch) was inactive Weeks 4-6
Detroit Lions	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Mikel Leshoure	18	0	0	bye	19	0	0	67	1	1
Kevin Smith	0	0	0	bye	--	--	--	38	3	2
Joique Bell	8	0	0	bye	9	0	0	37	2	1
Matthew Stafford	4	1	1	bye	3	1	1	12	2	2
Notes: Smith (healthy scratch) was inactive Week 6
Green Bay Packers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Cedric Benson	22	0	0	9	0	0	--	--	--	87	1	1
Alex Green	0	0	0	10	0	0	23	1	0	35	1	0
Aaron Rodgers	5	0	0	5	0	0	2	0	0	22	1	0
John Kuhn	1	0	0	3	1	1	2	0	0	17	1	1
James Starks	--	--	--	--	--	--	5	0	0	5	0	0
Graham Harrell	1	1	0	--	--	--	0	0	0	1	1	0
Notes: Benson (foot) placed on "designated for return" IR before Week 6; Starks (toe) was inactive Weeks 4-5
Houston Texans	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Arian Foster	26	1	1	33	1	0	18	4	2	167	14	6
Ben Tate	7	0	0	--	--	--	3	0	0	42	2	1
James Casey	5	0	0	4	0	0	2	0	0	20	0	0
Justin Forsett	0	0	0	4	0	0	8	0	0	18	0	0
Notes: Tate (toe) was inactive Week 5
Indianapolis Colts	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Donald Brown	bye	19	0	0	--	--	--	65	1	0
Vick Ballard	bye	7	0	0	12	0	0	35	0	0
Andrew Luck	bye	6	1	1	1	0	0	17	1	1
Mewelde Moore	bye	--	--	--	3	0	0	10	1	1
Notes: Brown (knee surgery) was inactive Week 6 and is out 2-3 weeks; Moore (ankle) was inactive Week 5
Jacksonville Jaguars	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Maurice Jones-Drew	18	0	0	15	0	0	bye	101	1	1
Rashad Jennings	3	0	0	3	0	0	bye	15	2	0
Blaine Gabbert	3	0	0	2	0	0	bye	13	0	0
Kansas City Chiefs	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Jamaal Charles	21	0	0	33	0	0	14	0	0	135	0	0
Shaun Draughn	9	0	0	13	0	0	15	0	0	61	1	1
Dexter McCluster	3	0	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	30	0	0
Peyton Hillis	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	27	1	0
Matt Cassel	0	0	0	4	1	0	--	--	--	11	2	1
Nate Eachus	1	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	8	0	0
Cyrus Gray	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0
Notes: Hillis (ankle) was inactive Weeks 4-6; Cassel (concussion) was inactive Week 6
Miami Dolphins	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Reggie Bush	18	0	0	22	0	0	19	0	0	121	2	0
Daniel Thomas	5	0	0	11	2	1	--	--	--	43	4	2
Lamar Miller	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	0	0
Ryan Tannehill	1	0	0	4	0	0	5	0	0	19	2	1
Jorvorskie Lane	3	1	1	4	0	0	2	0	0	17	2	2
Charles Clay	1	0	0	5	0	0	2	0	0	11	0	0
Notes: Thomas (concussion) was inactive Week 6
Minnesota Vikings	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Adrian Peterson	25	0	0	20	0	0	25	1	0	135	8	2
Toby Gerhart	4	0	0	6	0	0	4	1	0	40	1	0
Christian Ponder	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	0	0	19	0	0
Matt Asiata	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	0
New England Patriots	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Stevan Ridley	22	1	1	28	1	0	18	0	0	128	4	2
Danny Woodhead	2	0	0	8	0	0	9	0	0	52	1	1
Brandon Bolden	17	0	0	15	2	0	6	2	0	45	5	1
Tom Brady	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	0	10	2	2
Shane Vereen	3	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	1	1
New Orleans Saints	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Pierre Thomas	11	0	0	11	0	0	bye	52	0	0
Darren Sproles	12	0	0	10	0	0	bye	51	2	1
Mark Ingram	6	1	0	5	0	0	bye	39	3	1
Drew Brees	0	0	0	2	0	0	bye	5	1	1
New York Giants	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Ahmad Bradshaw	17	0	0	36	1	1	28	4	1	106	8	2
Andre Brown	6	0	0	0	0	0	--	--	--	46	5	3
David Wilson	1	0	0	2	0	0	7	0	0	19	0	0
Eli Manning	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1	0	10	1	0
Da'Rel Scott	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
Notes: Brown (concussion) was inactive Week 6
New York Jets	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Shonn Greene	12	0	0	10	0	0	32	3	2	113	7	3
Bilal Powell	7	0	0	5	0	0	6	1	0	48	1	0
Tim Tebow	2	0	0	5	1	0	4	1	0	19	2	0
Oakland Raiders	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Darren McFadden	14	0	0	bye	31	3	1	115	6	1
Marcel Reece	8	0	0	bye	1	0	0	20	0	0
Mike Goodson	6	0	0	bye	5	0	0	18	0	0
Philadelphia Eagles	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	LeSean McCoy	27	3	0	21	0	0	22	3	1	144	7	2
Michael Vick	6	0	0	5	1	0	9	0	0	41	3	1
Bryce Brown	4	1	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	21	3	0
Pittsburgh Steelers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Isaac Redman	bye	13	0	0	9	0	0	60	2	1
Jonathan Dwyer	bye	--	--	--	--	--	--	30	1	0
Rashard Mendenhall	bye	17	0	0	7	0	0	24	0	0
Baron Batch	bye	0	0	0	12	2	1	20	2	1
Notes: Dwyer (healthy scratch) was inactive Weeks 5-6
San Diego Chargers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Ryan Mathews	16	0	0	20	0	0	26	0	0	78	0	0
Jackie Battle	19	5	2	6	0	0	2	0	0	44	10	4
Curtis Brinkley	--	--	--	--	--	--	0	0	0	40	0	0
Ronnie Brown	3	0	0	7	0	0	7	0	0	35	1	0
Le'Ron McClain	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	0	0
Notes: Brinkley (healthy scratch) was inactive Weeks 4-5
Seattle Seahawks	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Marshawn Lynch	24	0	0	23	0	0	16	0	0	138	2	1
Russell Wilson	7	0	0	5	0	0	5	0	0	32	0	0
Robert Turbin	8	0	0	6	0	0	7	0	0	31	0	0
San Francisco 49ers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Frank Gore	22	2	1	14	3	1	12	0	0	99	6	3
Kendall Hunter	8	3	1	12	0	0	5	0	0	47	3	1
Alex Smith	3	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	21	0	0
Colin Kaepernick	5	2	0	4	0	0	2	0	0	12	2	0
Anthony Dixon	4	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	8	1	1
Notes: Brandon Jacobs (knee) was inactive Weeks 4-6
St. Louis Rams	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Steven Jackson	20	0	0	18	0	0	17	0	0	102	3	0
Daryl Richardson	9	0	0	10	0	0	14	1	0	57	2	0
Sam Bradford	2	0	0	5	0	0	4	1	1	18	1	1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Doug Martin	13	0	0	bye	17	0	0	101	4	0
LeGarrette Blount	6	1	1	bye	7	0	0	21	1	1
Josh Freeman	2	0	0	bye	3	0	0	13	0	0
Erik Lorig	0	0	0	bye	1	0	0	6	1	0
Tennessee Titans	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Chris Johnson	27	0	0	17	0	0	23	1	0	112	2	0
Darius Reynaud	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	0
Jamie Harper	--	--	--	--	--	--	2	1	1	4	1	1
Washington Redskins	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>	<center>Opp</center>	<center>In5</center>	<center>TD</center>
	Alfred Morris	23	0	0	19	1	0	18	1	1	122	4	3
Robert Griffin III	8	1	1	1	0	0	13	0	0	55	3	3
Evan Royster	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	20	1	0
Roy Helu	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	9	0	0
Notes: Helu (toe, Achilles') placed on IR before Week 4

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[HacheMan]

The hidden value in bye weeks

October 20. 2012 - Bye weeks aren't just a nuisance around which fantasy football owners need to manage, nor are they simply a stretch when reality football players can kick back.When they don't have a game, teams still examine their weaknesses. Players heal and work on technique and scheme comprehension. Heck, sometimes squads overhaul their strategies altogether.
When results show, there's cause for optimism. Case in point: the Oakland Raiders' Week 6 performance. Darren McFadden didn't leap back into elite status in his first trip back from his off-week, but he's getting closer. He ran with more purpose and seemed more comfortable with his offensive line's blocking. Penalties negated some big runs; while those bust-outs can often be the direct result of a helpful infraction and not a player's skill, he looked more like the Run DMC his owners expect him to be.
Carson Palmer, meanwhile, looked more efficient in running Greg Knapp's West Coast aerial O with a full complement of receiving targets on the field.
As evidenced by McFadden, struggling players can become optimal trade targets if you time your acquisition of them around their off-week. The Houston Texans want to involve Andre Johnson more. Expect them to work on ways to increase that when they're watching the rest of the league play in Week 8, and he might be a relatively cheap get because of his relatively average performance so far.
John Skelton has a chance to rediscover that late-2011 connection he had with Larry Fitzgerald now that Kevin Kolb (ribs) will be out a bit. Maybe the Arizona Cardinals can cook up a running game in that time, as well.
Sam Bradford has gone through offensive coordinators like Derek Jeter goes through ... admirers. Maybe he'll show a better comprehension of Brian Schottenheimer's offense following their Week 9 breather. The slinger has teased some good games this year already for the St. Louis Rams.
Maybe the Kansas City Chiefs will get solid QB play. OK, that's a stretch.
Yeah, that's a ton of maybes. Seven or so days of non-game action won't magically transform scrubs into studs, and some clubs are more than likely beyond rescue.
But if they have that refresher week coming up, there's at least some hope. Byes often serve as elixir not just for body bruises, but also for injured fantasy value. Don't write off your players with vacation time coming, and see if any of your opponents are giving up on any that will be resting soon.

 

[HacheMan]

Is Andre Johnson still elite?

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

This week on the Fantasy Underground podcast (also available on iTunes), Field Yates and I discussed Chris Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Doug Martin, Felix Jones, Antonio Brown, Mike Williams, William Powell and Josh Gordon. So you won't find discussions of those players here. Here are 10 other topics:

In Depth
1. What's Eating Andre Johnson? If you'd told any experienced fantasy owner that Andre Johnson would be tied for 30th in fantasy points among wide receivers after six weeks, they would have assumed that AJ had gotten hurt. That Johnson isn't even the highest-scoring WR named Andre (come on down, Andre Roberts) is a sharp punch to the gut. Things were better in Week 6 in a blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, as AJ had a season-high 12 targets, but he failed to find the end zone and is stuck on a pace for just five TDs.

Interestingly, the game tape shows that the Packers came out for Sunday night's first play in a single-safety-high defense. It was just one play (Green Bay went to its two-deep shell on the very next snap), but if I'm Matt Schaub, I would take a shot to Johnson every single time I saw one safety back. (On this particular play, the target went to Owen Daniels.) When this game was competitive, Schaub clearly did endeavor to keep AJ involved, but it was exclusively via short passing. Now, some of that is inevitable. Packers corners were playing soft and off for most of the first half, giving up shorter hooks and outs and then tackling him. But heck, at this point I think Johnson's fantasy owners will take that, and of course, that's how you wind up with eight catches for 75 yards. We'll take 8-for-75 every single day of the week and simply hope that Johnson finds his way into the end zone every so often.


If I'd written up AJ before Week 6, I'd have expressed more concern, because previously it hadn't been a priority to keep him involved on every possession. I don't think we can be so reductive as to say, "Oh, the Houston Texans were playing crummy teams in the season's first month and they didn't have to throw." In the first and second quarters even against bad teams, the way you build a lead can be by throwing. For example, against the Jacksonville Jaguars back in Week 2, yes, there was more safety help on AJ's side, but the corners were playing just as far off, and Schaub looked for Daniels almost by default. Seeing the renewed emphasis on AJ even when the game was tight Sunday night is heartening.

In the end, though, Johnson's status as an elite fantasy option rests on two things: his ability to make big plays and his ability to score TDs. I think the TDs will come, but there's really no proof: TDs aren't predictable. But in order to make chunk plays with AJ, the Texans probably need to throw it to him deep, which they haven't done. Alarmingly, he has only six targets all season that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. Last year he had 11 in basically six games. It's not that some other wideout or even Daniels is replacing Johnson's deep targets. Nobody is getting them. Schaub has only 14 such shots this year, as opposed to the 33 he took in 10 games last year. That's why there's some legit reason for concern about whether AJ is still super-elite. Still, as soon as this week against a Baltimore Ravens defense missing its only proven corner (Lardarius Webb), the increased AJ workload, even on shorter stuff, should continue to pay off. I'm not selling low on this guy, and he's in my starting lineup.

2. Peyton Manning's Deep Ball. After Week 2, I wrote about Manning and claimed that "the conversation about Manning's arm strength -- which was exacerbated when the Denver Post reported that Brock Osweiler was warming up to throw a Hail Mary if needed -- is probably overstated" and "it's revisionist history to proclaim that Manning always threw tight spirals with the Indianapolis Colts." Three games later, we don't hear too much clamoring about Peyton's arm strength anymore, do we?

I can go two ways on this. Maybe there was some legit concern that after all those neck surgeries, people really were watching Manning throw and thinking, "Boy, he doesn't have the deep ball anymore." Or maybe the knee-jerk analysts did what they always do, which is look at the results (in this case a three-INT first half against the Atlanta Falcons), assume something is terribly wrong, and then work backward to retrofit a convenient solution. You can make up your mind which was the case after that Week 2 Monday night game. All I can say is having watched every throw the guy has made on tape, I don't see any appreciable difference between his arm strength now and "way back when." Does that mean he's back to being "the perfect QB"? Not at all. In my opinion, he's jumpier in the pocket than he used to be, and stronger pass defenses have been able to bait him into the occasional mental error. But his arm? His arm is fine.

Need statistical proof? Here's what Manning's numbers look like when he attempts throws to different depths:

Depth	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	QB Rating
behind line	44	33	75.0%	299	3	0	115.6
1 to 10 yards	116	86	74.1%	760	6	1	104.8
11 to 20 yards	46	24	52.2%	397	1	0	88.8
21 to 30 yards	12	7	58.3%	186	3	3	102.8
31 to 40 yards	9	4	44.4%	166	1	0	128.2
41+ yards	0	0	-	0	0	0	-
(Source: Stats, LLC)

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That 11-for-21 performance on passes traveling more than 20 yards in the air is the second-best completion rate in the NFL, behind only the 7-for-13 performance of Alex Smith before Thursday night's game. You're not hearing any talking-head questions about Manning's arm strength right now because he entered his bye week coming off a stirring second-half comeback Monday night. But even if the Denver Broncos struggle and those questions start up again, don't you believe them.

3. Deep-Ball Receivers. While we're thinking of pass attempts that travel different depths, let's take a look at the wideouts who've gotten the most work on throws that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. While this profile of player won't always automatically lead to fantasy glory, it doesn't hurt. After all, "downfield" equals "more chunk yardage" and "long-TD potential." For the purposes of this chart, I'm including only WRs with at least 20 total targets so far in '12:

Player	Total Targets	Targets traveling more than 20 yards	Pct. of Targets traveling more than 20 yards	Current WR fantasy rank	Highest weekly fantasy total
Torrey Smith	36	15	41.7%	12	24
Chris Givens	22	8	36.4%	66	11
Jon Baldwin	23	8	34.8%	75	6
Devery Henderson	21	7	33.3%	65	18
Steve Smith (CAR)	38	12	31.6%	44	10
Robert Meachem	26	8	30.8%	57	18
Vincent Jackson	46	13	28.3%	17	18 (twice)
DeSean Jackson	54	14	25.9%	22	15
Domenik Hixon	31	8	25.8%	58	11
Malcom Floyd	39	10	25.6%	29	12
(Source: Stats, LLC)

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Here they are: Your ultimate boom-or-busters. Only five of these 10 players are on the every-week starter radar screen: the Smiths, the Jacksons and Floyd. As their owners can attest, owning these guys can be an up-and-down affair. The reason is obvious: It's harder to connect on the deep stuff, and sometimes it just isn't there. But when it is there, the rewards are big.

Of the five remaining WRs here, for the moment Hixon really only has a fantasy role if and when Hakeem Nicks is limited, and Meachem and Henderson have each shown up for exactly one game, perhaps something they learned while huddling on the bench back in their halcyon days together with the New Orleans Saints. Givens and Baldwin are intriguing young players whom dynasty leaguers already value highly.

From a fantasy strategy perspective, I like the idea of pairing one of those five possible starters (the Smiths, the Jacksons and Floyd) with a steadier wideout -- a Wes Welker or a Percy Harvin -- for an optimal balance of upside and risk. A player like Welker may wind up with precisely the same number of fantasy points as a player like Vincent Jackson, but on a weekly basis they're likely to take vastly different paths getting there.

4. Does "Slot" Equal "Safe"? I just made a point about balancing a risky WR with a "safer" one, but how does one locate a "safe" receiver? Retroactively, you can certainly look at week-by-week point performance to find the guys with less variability by looking at the smallest standard deviations among the top 40 fantasy WRs to date:

Player	Weekly fantasy point standard deviation
Malcom Floyd	3.78
Miles Austin	3.96
DeSean Jackson	4.12
Andrew Hawkins	4.34
Stevie Johnson	4.36
Eric Decker	4.40
Sidney Rice	4.50
Randall Cobb	4.92
Anquan Boldin	4.93
Percy Harvin	5.12

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However, with only five or six games' worth of data for each of these players, I'm not sure if this list isn't simply a better representation of "guys who haven't scored very many touchdowns yet." After all, Floyd appears both on the "deep-ball specialist" list above and this list of small standard deviations. The explanation for that is partly that Floyd is a consistent element in the San Diego Chargers' offense, but it's also partly that he hasn't scored a TD since Week 1, so his point totals have been consistently pedestrian.

Maybe the "safer" receivers are the guys who line up in the slot. That's where high-volume receptions WRs tend to roam, running routes that are most easily completed by even noodle-armed QBs. According to ProFootballFocus.com, here are the 10 leading slot WRs so far this season in terms of actual catches made after lining up in the slot:

Player	Slot targets	Slot receptions	Pct. of routes from slot	WR fantasy points rank
Wes Welker	52	40	86.3	5
Victor Cruz	48	30	68.5	2
Reggie Wayne	41	22	62.9	3
Danny Amendola	35	24	75	26
Andrew Hawkins	31	21	87.8	37
Davone Bess	31	18	64	44
Calvin Johnson	26	16	37.9	13
Randall Cobb	26	22	78.4	22
Nate Burleson	25	17	45.8	45
Percy Harvin	25	18	60.7	4

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I'm not sure we've done much to prove that these players are safer, but it's a happy accident to discover that four of the current top five WRs in fantasy have run more than 60 percent of their routes from the slot! We're still constrained by a small sample size, where a couple TDs can skew things wildly. Still, remove Amendola (who didn't play for most of Week 5 and all of Week 6 because of injury), and our remaining list of nine has some pretty stereotypically "safe" names (Welker, Cruz, Wayne, Cobb, Harvin), albeit ones who've actually performed with great upside so far in '12. For me, that list is a who's who of safe wide receivers, such as it is.

A couple ancillary notes: Even with Nicks out, Cruz is running a strong majority of his snaps from the slot. To date, because Nicks hasn't been playing at full strength (or at all), this hasn't hurt Cruz's upside: He's got a whopping six TDs. However, one argument for the repeatability of Cruz's immense '11 season was that he'd run more as an outside receiver, and that isn't happening. I don't know that we'll ever get to see Nicks playing at full strength for a long stretch this season, so maybe this assertion is academic, but I'm still skeptical Cruz would be a top-10 fantasy WR in his current role with a star outside receiver also playing for the New York Giants.

Finally, we should also note that the only player on our top-10 slot list who doesn't run a majority of his snaps from the slot is Calvin Johnson. That tells us the Detroit Lions are committed to getting Megatron the ball in a ton of different ways, and while more slot snaps might mean fewer chances at big plays, it should also mean a steady stream of weekly targets.

5. Is Andy Dalton an Every Week Fantasy Starter? Field Yates and I discussed Dalton on the Fantasy Underground podcast after Week 3, and we concluded that despite a couple strong weeks of production after a terrible season opener, the Cincinnati Bengals' passing offense was too dink-and-dunk for Dalton to keep it up.

Well, in two of three games since, he's kept it up. Since our conversation, Dalton has 21, 11 and 19 fantasy points, averaging 286 yards passing, two TDs and two-plus turnovers per game. I get a lot of questions about Dalton: Why don't I consider him for my QB top-10 list? Why would I fear Week 7's game against a depleted Pittsburgh Steelers defense? Don't I feel any brotherhood with a fellow redhead?


Listen, first of all, I ranked Dalton 11th among QBs this week. It's a bye-depleted skein of games, and the Steelers have been a roughly neutral opponent for opposing fantasy quarterbacks this season. But the larger point holds: I'm not that into Dalton. Since we discussed him on our podcast, Dalton has thrown 12 of 77 passes (15.6 percent) that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. That's an improvement over his first weeks, but he still sits at 9.7 percent for the season, almost exactly the same number he posted in his rookie season, when he was 24th among QBs in that stat. As I seem to say a lot in this column, throwing it down the field doesn't automatically mean fantasy greatness and failure to do so doesn't mean you stink. But your margin for error is smaller.

How has Dalton done as well as he's done in '12? A.J. Green is a big ol' eraser for sure, and that's an argument in favor of Dalton's fantasy stock: Green made a circus catch over the middle in the second quarter of last week's game, a pass Cleveland Browns safety T.J. Ward would've picked off, and Green pretty much caught a jump ball over a staggering Joe Haden for a 57-yard TD bomb down 34-17 late. In addition, we should mention the Bengals' O-line, which according to ProFootballFocus has allowed seven sacks but only 26 hurries, and those 33 total pressures are second fewest in the NFL. But Dalton has also done it with several short-catch-long-run plays that are tough to repeat. In addition, with the game still in reach last week (down 27-17), Dalton threw a lazy pick-six to a poaching Sheldon Brown, a case when he had time to wait and throw it farther, but latched on to Brandon Tate as a target. And in situations where his pocket eventually does break down, my sense is that Dalton just isn't all that effective.

It was good to see Dalton make a few big completions where the throw was a major part of the yardage gained last week, because that hasn't often been the case with him. But I can't get on board with Dalton as an above-average fantasy QB when everyone is off bye, because too much dink-and-dunk combined with too many turnovers (11 in six games) isn't a recipe for fantasy glory.
Five In Brief

 

[HacheMan]

Backup running backs will be useful in Week 7

Not thrilled with your starting running back options this week? Join the club. With six teams on bye in Week 7, plenty of your league mates are dealing with the same sticky situations at RB, or other positions.Some of this year's most reliable rushers are resting: Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy. Don't feel inefficient if you're left starting a backup or even third-stringer this week.
Although it's expected that Trent Richardson (chest, ribs) will suit up against the Indianapolis Colts, it could easily be Montario Hardesty who has the better game. The Colts are yielding a generous 142.6 rushing yards per game, second most in the league, and they are also allowing 25.2 fantasy points per game to running backs in standard scoring.
Brandon Weeden has been slinging the pigskin around with great frequency, but Cleveland will be tempted to pound the ball on the ground. If they're planning on being cautious with Richardson, or if he encounters a setback, Hardesty could put up decent numbers. If you weren't convinced he could, last week's 15-carry, 56-yard, one-touchdown effort should dispel those doubts.
***

Daryl Richardson might be an even better bet as a bye-week running back fill-in. Richardson received a few less touches than Steven Jackson last week and put up better numbers. Richardson is on Jackson's heels and could surpass him eventually in the running back hierarchy in St. Louis.

Jackson is no longer the future for the Rams, and Richardson is more explosive and fresh. Don't be surprised to see Richardson take the majority of carries from Jackson against the Green Bay Packers.
***
There are plenty of running back variables floating around in Pittsburgh this week, with both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles') and Isaac Redman (ankle) missing the last two days of practice. Both will probably be questionable heading into their tilt against the Cincinnati Bengals, but Redman probably has the better chance to play.
If you're desperate, add Redman and hope he goes. If you don't want to risk the chance that Redman sits out, too, Baron Batch should be your next target. Batch entered in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans and rushed 10 times for 22 yards and a TD. Of course, if both Mendenhall and Redman suit up, Batch will be an afterthought.

 

[HacheMan]

Sneaky fantasy pickups entering Week 7

Eric Karabell

The Jacksonville Jaguars are pretty much all or nothing for fantasy football these days, as in running back Maurice Jones-Drew is owned and active in all leagues, and the rest of the squad represents pretty much nothing. Perhaps that's not entirely fair, but look around your leagues and report how many owners are actually using rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon, tight end Marcedes Lewis or, digging deeper, quarterback Blaine Gabbert or the team's kicker or defense. It's rare.

This week the Jaguars are facing a rather appealing matchup against another struggling franchise in the Oakland Raiders. Would I use Gabbert or one of the wide receivers in fantasy? It would have to be a deep league, but as we often do in the Friday Sneaky Pickups blog, we dream about possibility and plan ahead past the current week. Maybe the Jaguars won't score a ton Sunday -- they're averaging only 15 points per contest -- but planning ahead for fantasy purposes, let's not be so quick to dismiss the potential of the passing game if, as this offense-challenged team is suggesting, Gabbert is given a chance to open things up a bit.

Blackmon, the overall No. 5 pick in the real 2012 draft, is the No. 2 Jaguar in terms of standard league ownership, at 54.4 percent, but it seems to drop each week, and as of this writing he's active in barely 4 percent of leagues. That makes sense because he has scored a total of 12 fantasy points, on 13 receptions for 119 yards. Looks like a normal Wes Welker game, no? However, the kid has talent, but needs a quarterback and a game plan. The Jaguars were on bye last week, a fact realized by perhaps only the Jones-Drew owners, and they have pledged to get Blackmon and second-year receiver Cecil Shorts more involved this week. While the former is owned in deeper leagues, I've added the latter in a 20-teamer just in case he makes big plays.

Of course, in order for Blackmon, Shorts and, when healthy, veteran Laurent Robinson (concussion) to mean something in fantasy, Gabbert has to improve, but it's also important for the play calling to be more aggressive. As AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky noted, the conservative approach isn't working. This is a one-win team, and the victory came when Shorts hauled in a short crossing route and blasted off for an 80-yard touchdown late in Week 3 at Indianapolis. Shorts also made a big play late in Week 1 at Minnesota, scoring on a 39-yarder with 20 seconds left. There's talent here, and it's not ridiculous to expect these wide receivers and perhaps Lewis (he did score 10 touchdowns in 2010, after all) to matter.

The Raiders, by the way, are seventh-easiest for fantasy quarterbacks to accumulate points against. Here's to hoping offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey pushes Gabbert to be more aggressive, perhaps in running more, and he hopefully improves his terrible yards per attempt. Let's face it, there are other appealing matchups later in the season (Colts again, Lions, Titans twice, Bills), and the Jaguars need to see not only what Gabbert is capable of, but the talented, underused receivers Blackmon and Shorts as well.

Quarterback: With probably 15 or so quarterbacks worthy of starting attention in standard leagues (when there are no byes), maybe you see no need to snap up a John Skelton in advance. I can't argue that. This is the lone week with six teams on bye, but those owning Aaron Rodgers and Robert Griffin III (both on bye in Week 10) should see if Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill and Gabbert are out there now. I'm in a deep league where the other owners grabbed all the starting QBs so those not planning would be stuck, or need to overpay in trade.

Running back: Keep an eye on the Pittsburgh Steelers, as Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman are hurting. Jonathan Dwyer will likely start this week's game, and Baron Batch has deep-league value. … Felix Jones starts for the Dallas Cowboys, but Phillip Tanner might be a better and more durable player, and should see chances. … Jacquizz Rodgers has been so, um, average, Jason Snelling could become a factor again. … I expect Vick Ballard to have a decent game for the Colts, but Delone Carter should get opportunity as well. … Montario Hardesty has failed before, and if Trent Richardson cannot play, and if Hardesty disappoints, Chris Ogbonnaya is lurking in Cleveland.

Wide receiver: The NFL trade deadline is the Tuesday after Week 8 (in the past it would have already passed) and there are rumors of the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins discussing Dwayne Bowe. Hmmm. It might not alter Bowe's value much, but it would do wonders for barely owned Jon Baldwin. … It's odd that the Colts' T.Y. Hilton is so ignored (0.8 percent). I'd still take Donnie Avery over him, but that hierarchy should change eventually. … Chris Givens needs more attention in St. Louis after three consecutive games with a 50-yard play. … Stephen Hill of the Jets isn't sneaky, because he's owned in 15 percent of leagues, but that figure is low. … Devery Henderson tends to be all or nothing, but the Saints' schedule features a few games that could be "all." … Jacoby Jones of the Ravens is a factor in the return game, for those leagues that give extra credit there.

Good luck to all in Week 7 and of course, beyond!

 

[HacheMan]

Key fantasy injuries for Week 7

Stephania Bell

There are only two late afternoon games Sunday, as two NFC West teams already squared off Thursday night. The 49ers and the Seahawks managed to get through their early Week 7 contest without too much injury fallout. Niners running back Frank Gore bruised his ribs, but X-rays were negative for fracture. With the 10-day hiatus until their next game, the 49ers are hopeful Gore will be able to play.

As for the games left to be played, there are six teams on bye this week: Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia and San Diego. Translation: There are many substitutions to be made!

Here are the players you might need to make your plans around in Week 7.

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, calf (P): Rodgers was kept to a lighter workout Wednesday to rest his left calf but was back in full practice Thursday and Friday. Even Rodgers said as early as Wednesday, "Nothing's going to keep me out," according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Sounds as if the calf is not an issue.

Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings, knee (P): Ponder has been on the injury report for a couple of weeks now but has managed to play through the inflamed bursa in his knee. He is expected to do the same again Sunday.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, ankle (P): After not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, Peterson went through a full practice Friday in advance of Sunday's game. On Thursday, we noted that the decision to rest Peterson early in the week was a precautionary one. This is the same leg on which he underwent reconstructive knee surgery earlier this year, so the caution is understood. Plus, the Vikings will have two games within the span of five days because they host the Thursday night game next week.

Last year, Peterson suffered an injury to the same ankle (reported as a high ankle sprain) and missed three games as a result. Given the abuse that side of his body has taken in the past two years, the approach is completely understandable, and the expectation is Peterson will play come game time.

Ahmad Bradshaw, foot (Q) and Andre Brown, concussion (P), New York Giants: It's a familiar refrain: Bradshaw has a sore foot. Bradshaw, however, says that it is not related to past issues he has had with his foot (metatarsal stress fractures) but rather that this episode is the result of someone stepping on his foot in Week 6. No matter the cause, Bradshaw was held out of practice Wednesday and Friday. If there's some good news, Bradshaw did do limited work on Thursday, typically the most important practice day of the week. Coach Tom Coughlin also said he expects Bradshaw to play.

As for Brown, after missing Week 6 after a concussion, he practiced in full every day this week and is eager to take the field again. As ESPN New York points out, Brown will face another team that previously cut him, the Washington Redskins. The last time he faced a former team was when the Giants visited the Carolina Panthers earlier this season. Bradshaw was sidelined with a neck injury, and Brown had his breakout game.

The Giants have an interesting situation at running back with Brown healthy, David Wilson seeing more action of late as he tries to distance himself from his early-season fumbles, and Bradshaw possibly available with a sore foot. It would not be surprising if all three are active, with Wilson contributing on special teams and Bradshaw getting the starting nod.

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns, chest/rib (Q): On Thursday, we noted the likelihood that Richardson would play, and nothing appears to have changed. Richardson practiced again Friday (limited) and likely will start. How much he can endure will be fluid depending on the course of the game, but it wouldn't come as a great surprise if Montario Hardesty got a few more touches than usual.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders, shoulder (P): McFadden has been on the injury report because of his shoulder for a few weeks, but it has not kept him from any game action, nor did it cause him to miss any practice time this week. Expect him to play.

Alex Green, Green Bay Packers, shoulder (P): Coach Mike McCarthy came out and said this week that the team expects Green to carry the full workload. It speaks to the team's confidence in him as the primary back now that Cedric Benson is out with a Lisfranc injury. It also speaks to the likelihood of Green being ready to go by Sunday. So does the "probable" tag. Expect Green to be the starter when the Packers face the Rams.

Ben Tate, Houston Texans, toe (P): Tate was active last week but had only three carries. In fact, he was on the field for only a handful of snaps. Tate practiced on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday, then was moved up to a full practice Friday. Again listed at probable, Tate is expected to be active, but if Foster continues to control the load, he might not see much action.

[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins, foot (D): Garcon and his ailing toe have been discussed at length in this blog. After not practicing again all week, he is unlikely to play.

Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants, knee/foot (P): Nicks has practiced three days in a row. In and of itself, that is big news. More importantly for fantasy owners, it speaks to the likelihood that Nicks will play, as does the "probable" tag, which is a bump up from the questionable status Nicks has held most of the season. The further he is removed from the foot surgery, the better it is in terms of recovery. The more recent knee injury appears to be settling down, as well, given his involvement in practice this week. Now if he can just produce in a game like he did in Week 2…

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints, hamstring (P): The Saints might be without receiving tight end Jimmy Graham, but it looks as if they'll get another pass-catcher back this week. Moore, who missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury, benefited from the additional rest of the bye week that followed. He practiced fully every day and is expected to play.

Jerome Simpson, Minnesota Vikings, back (P): After sitting out last week's game because of weakness in his leg, Simpson appears to have made significant improvement this week. He was able to practice in full every day, far more than he was able to do a week ago. According to ESPN 1500 Twin Cities, Vikings coach Leslie Frazier said, "Barring any unforeseen circumstance, he should be ready to go on Sunday." Simpson should start.

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys, groin (Q): Friday additions to the injury report are never a welcome sight for fantasy owners, but that's exactly what Bryant was. So, how concerned should we be? According to ESPN's Ed Werder, the Cowboys expect Bryant to start Sunday against the Panthers, barring a setback in pregame warm-ups. The groin issue is not a new one but is more a case of residual soreness associated with a chronic injury.

Although we'd rather not see something crop up late in the week, there's also a case to be made for limiting Bryant in practice if there is even a mild concern, in the hopes of preventing it from becoming a bigger issue. With teammate Miles Austin (not on this week's injury report) just recently removed from a recurrent hamstring injury and the loss of running back DeMarco Murray, who also contributed in the passing game, to a foot injury, the specter of injury for Bryant is understandably worrisome to the Cowboys. And Bryant is no stranger to injury issues. He dealt with a high ankle sprain and a fractured fibula his first year in the league and opened this season with what was called patellar tendinitis in his right knee. As of now, it looks as if Bryant can be expected to play, but it would be wise to check pregame inactives just in case.

Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, calf (P): Jackson was added to the Thursday injury report with a calf injury but returned Friday to a limited practice. According to The Tampa Tribune, the limitations were precautionary. All sounds positive for a Jackson start, but the unknown is whether it will become an issue as the game progresses.

Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders, shoulder (P): Moore missed time early in the season with a hamstring injury, but it does not appear this shoulder issue will lead to the same result. Moore practiced fully each day this week and, at "probable," is expected to play.

Mohamed Massaquoi, hamstring (Q) and Greg Little, illness (P), Cleveland Browns: Massaquoi has missed the past three games because of a hamstring injury, and, if fantasy owners were thinking of picking him up to replace a receiver on bye, be forewarned that he could miss another. He has returned to limited practice, but, according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Massaquoi looked to be behind teammate Travis Benjamin (who also has been dealing with a hamstring injury). Little missed Thursday practice with illness but was back Friday for limited work. He is expected to play.
Titus Young, Detroit Lions, knee (no designation yet): Young has continued to play through his knee soreness and likely will do so again Monday night.

Wes Welker, New England Patriots, ankle (Q): Welker played through this last week and is expected to do so again when the Patriots host the Jets.

Stephen Hill, hamstring and Jeremy Kerley, finger, New York Jets (P): Hill and Kerley were able to practice every day this week, and both are expected to play.

[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Rob Gronkowski, hip and Aaron Hernandez, ankle, New England Patriots (Q): Gronkowski and Hernandez should play again this week, as noted in Thursday's blog. Both were in practice (limited) Friday, and, although things can always change before kickoff, this week feels better than any since Week 2 in terms of having both New England tight ends available.

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers, shoulder (P): Finley originally injured his shoulder (AC joint) in Week 5 but still played in this past Sunday night's game in Houston. Despite being active, his contribution was minimal, catching only two passes. One could argue that his contribution has been limited for much of the season; the difference Sunday was that Finley was literally on the field for far fewer snaps than in previous games. He practiced on a limited basis daily this week, and the shoulder seems to be improving. Perhaps his productivity also will improve when the Packers visit the Rams this Sunday.

Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions, knee (no designation yet): Pettigrew did practice on a limited basis Thursday and Friday, suggesting he will be active for Monday night, barring a setback.

Dustin Keller, New York Jets, hamstring (P): Keller was able to return to game action last week after missing more than a month, but he was not much of a factor in the passing game (of course, there weren't many passing plays, either). Still, the further an athlete gets from his injury without a setback, the more confidence there is that he is moving past it. Although Keller is not out of the woods yet, the hope is that he will be more involved this week.

[h=3]Out[/h]
This space is intended for a list of key players, not including those who have been moved to injured reserve status, who are officially listed as "out" for this week's game.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints, ankle: At least fantasy owners won't be holding their collective breath until pregame inactives are announced Sunday. The Saints have done everyone a favor by announcing Saturday that Graham will not make the trip to Tampa Bay for this week's game. It allows another week for Graham to get healthy. In the meantime, David Thomas likely will be the starting tight end for the Saints.

Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle), RBs, Pittsburgh Steelers: Another pregame panic situation avoided, especially helpful because the Steelers don't play until Sunday night. Neither Mendenhall nor Redman practiced all week, so their absence does not come as a complete surprise. Jonathan Dwyer gets the start.

Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers (groin): We knew this likely was going to be the case again this week. Jennings remains out until his groin has fully recovered.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (foot): Earlier in the week, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones indicated that Murray would sit this week out, so there is no shock here. The bigger question remains just how much time Murray will miss. There is no definitive answer yet. In the meantime, Felix Jones will start in his place.

Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots (knee): Bolden left last week's game early because of his knee and has not practiced this week. No surprise, then, that he is sitting this one out.

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts (knee): Brown had surgery on his knee two weeks ago and already has been ruled out again for Sunday. Vick Ballard gets the start again for the Colts.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (hand): Jeffery will miss the Monday night game against the Lions with a fractured bone in his hand.

Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (left shoulder): Locker is out, and Hasselbeck is in again.

Kevin Kolb, QB, Arizona Cardinals (ribs): Kolb is expected to miss six to eight weeks with rib, sternoclavicular joint and shoulder injuries. Good thing John Skelton was just getting healthy.

Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams, shoulder: Amendola will miss several weeks as he recovers from his sternoclavicular joint injury.

Be sure to check out "Fantasy Football Now" (11 a.m. ET Sunday, ESPN2) for last-minute inactives, rankings, injury impact and more!

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy football players to buy for stretch run

October 22. 2012 - Whether your team is off to a slow start or currently in first place, there is still a long ways to go in the fantasy season. Some players will pay huge dividends for fantasy owners over the next two months. Finding the right ones could be the difference between winning and losing your league. Here are five players owners should consider buying for the second half of the season.

Doug Martin, RB Tampa Buccaneers – Greg Schiano said during the Buccaneers bye week that he wanted to run the football with more success. Over the last two games Martin has delivered with 29 carries for 161 yards and a score. Martin has also been a factor in the passing game, catching five balls for 92 yards. With upcoming games against soft rush defenses Oakland, Carolina, Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans, Tampa Bay's lead back is a player on the rise.

Willis McGahee, RB Denver Broncos – It seems like people are always trying to sell McGahee but through six games he is averaging over 15 fantasy points in PPR leagues. The thing McGahee has going for him is touches. McGahee has touched the ball at least 20 times in four of Denver's first six games and that does not figure to change in the second half of the season with only rookie Ronnie Hillman behind him. If you are looking for volume and consistency, McGahee is your man.

Denarius Moore, WR Oakland Raiders – Moore did not have a huge performance on Sunday but he has now scored in each of his last two games. Moore is finally healthy after dealing with a shoulder injury and he gets to face struggling pass defenses Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and Cleveland in the coming weeks. Considering Oakland can't run the ball, Moore has the potential to put up some big fantasy numbers.

Lance Moore, WR New Orleans Saints – Moore has been a pleasant surprise so far in PPR leagues and there is no reason why that should not continue for the rest of the year. Moore has become one of Drew Brees' favorite receivers, pulling in 28 passes on 47 targets through five games. Moore does not score a lot but the receptions will be there most weeks.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets – Keller missed four games with a hamstring injury but when healthy he is one of Mark Sanchez's top targets. Keller led the Jets in receptions last year and had a big game on Sunday, catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score against the Patriots. The Jets do not have many options at receiver, so expect Keller to be a big factor going forward, especially in the red zone.